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Home , All Hell Broke Loose, Gaza War (2008–2009), Iron Dome, J Street, Katif (moshav), Quds Day

Selected articles concerning , published weekly by Suburban Orthodox Toras Chaim’s (Baltimore) Israel Action Committee Edited by Jerry Appelbaum ( [email protected] ) | Founding editor: Sheldon J. Berman Z”L

Issue 8 9 3 Volume 2 1 , Number 2 5 Parshias Pinchas | Shabbos Mevarchim July 3 , 2021

Testing Bennett: An in - depth intervi ew with A. Pe'er, 's military correspondent. By Gavriel Meir Hamodia Prime Weekly/hamodia.com June 23, 2021 , Arab countries and terror groups will be testing given control of Gaza, together with Yehudah and the new Prime Minister. They know he's not Bibi the Shomron, which Netanyahu objected to. stubborn one or Bibi the strong rig ht - winger, but the When it comes to the , the Eiden leader of a government that depends on Arab MKs for administration feels it has a better chance of making its survival. progress with Bennett and , whose coa lition What are the pressing security and diplomatic depends on left - wing parties like and Labor and, challenges facing Prime Minister ? mainly, on the . Bibi wasn't prepared to make the Topping the list is Iran, on many different levels. kind of concessions required by the various U.S. peace There's Iran vis - a - vis the and the initiatives. This government is seen as , being much less question of whether the nuclear resistant. deal will be renewed. There's Iran as it relates to its Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has spoken of efforts to expand its hold on the Middle East, and its improving ties with the Democ rats in the U.S. attempt to establish a military presence close to Israel's Congress. Is that realistic? borders. And there's Iran i n the context of , Yes. , and . It has also i has influence in It's important to understand that Israel - U.S. ties aren't Gaza. limited to the government's relation ship with the And of course, there's the nuclear threat. White House. It includes the Democrats, the Republicans, Iran is officially claiming to be enriching uranium of and the Jewish community. For instance, the Reform and up to 64% purity, which means it is a hop, skip and a jump Conservatives in the United ' States were dancing with joy from b eing able to make a small bomb or two. Whether at the formation of the new government. they intend to use them against Israel, orto preserve and They feel close to the new Diaspora affairs minister, strengthen the Shiite hold on Iran, in the face of challenges , who spent many years in the United States from various rebel groups, is an open question. and who had very go od ties with non - Orthodox elements Of course, such a development would make it very there. difficult for Israel to bomb Iranian nuclear reactors , as well as others who felt that Israel had without causing a catastrophe that no one wants to see. become "too Orthodox," are thrilled about the new But there are military steps that could be taken to ensure government. that Iran is left with just those one or two bombs, and So what does that mean for the Chareidi - religious without the ability to build a nuclear arsenal. public in Israel? The immediate question is what to do about the It means we're in for a very rough time. There are Iranian threat now, while it's still at 64% enrich ment. The already plans for the Kosel, and for changing conversion Americans say Israel mustn't bomb, as they believe it is procedures. You have someone like Avigdor Liberman, possible to reach a new, improved agreement that will turn the finance minister, who for years has been saying that the c lock back on Iran's program, to the 10% levels of the any Rav should be able to conduct conversions. Obama years. The deal will require Iran to hand over its Bennett has spoken of reforming the kashrus system, stores of 64% enriched uranium to international agencies. opening it up to competition. If today, the Rabbanut will The Bennett - Lapid government has been saying not give kashrus certification to a restaurant that is open that it will be less confrontational than Binyamin on Shabbos, since it can't be trusted, Bennett argues that Netanyahu was in dealing with the United States, kashrus and Shabbos observance are two unrelat ed issues. insofar as Iran and other matters. Would that be in If a place is found to be kosher, it should get a certificate Israel's best interest? even if it opens on Shabbos. It's a matter of opinion. Some say you have to stand Is there concern that is testing Bennett, firm in dealing with Washington, others argue that it's best and that's what's behind the recent violence? to be ac commodating, to the extent possible. One thing's Definitely. But not just Hamas. All of the Arab for sure: The Americans were very, very happy about the countries an d terror groups are testing him, to see how new government. Bibi was a tough nut for them to crack. much they can get away with. The Americans also see Bennett as "one of them." Everything that happened last week regarding He was born in the United States, he speaks English at Yerusha layim - with Hamas threatening to fire missiles on home with his family, who are American citizens. the cap ital if the flag march was held - was a way of testing Bibi blocked a number of initiatives that the U.S. Ben nett. Hamas was trying to see if he would fold and would have liked to advance. For instance, the two state how he would react to the incendiary balloons. solution. The U.S. also wanted to be Similarly, Iran and Arab countries and terror groups Foc us o n Is rael July 3, 2021 Page 2

will be testing the new government. They know it's not It's possible that these countries will take advantage of Bibi the stubborn one, or Bibi the strong right - winger, but the change of government in Israel to slip out of some of a govern ment that depends on Arab MKs for its survival. their commitments. Recently, even under B ibi, some Diplomatically, there are two more important points complained that they weren't getting as much as they'd that will pose a challenge for the new government: Russia expected under the agreement. and China. Ties with and , which have the largest Netanyahu developed a very special, close relationship borders with Israel, are also sensitive. The king of J or dan is with Russian President which made it pos always on the verge of an explosion, whether over Har sible for Israel to launch major strikes in Syria and Habayis or water rights. This will be challenging for else where, even in areas controlled by the Russian air Bennett, who is saddled with a coalition that includes force. The question is whether Benn ett will succeed in extreme leftists and Arabs. This will tie his hands in his estab lishing the kind of close ties that will allow for a dealings with Hezbollah, Gaza, and the Arab world in contin ued high level of cooperation. general. The subject of China is very delicate. The Chinese are Finally, what a bout the budget? Does the defense looking to expand all over the world, including in Israel, establishment feel it can count on the Bennett and this is not being we ll - received by the United States in government to allocate it the resources it needs? general, and the Biden administration in particular. No. In fact, it's concerned that the budget is mainly in The Chinese will be looking to see to what extent the hands of someone who bears a grudge against the Isra el will award it major infrastructure contracts, like defense establis hment. When he was defense minister, he ports. Israel has to walk a fine line here. It doesn't wa nt to felt that the generals left him out of the decision - making upset Washington, but it can't afford to cut off ties with a and that this forced him to quit. There is concern that he'll world power like China, which may someday be the want to settle scores. world's superpower. Besides, the government made lots of costly coalition Bibi invested a lot of effort in advancing relations with commitments. The Arabs got something in the area of NIS moderate Arab states, contributing greatly to the four 40 billion to NIS 45 billion. That has come at someone's treati es signed under the . He also expense. worked to advance ties with and others. What happens when opposition declares the government to be illegitimate? By Susan Hattis Rolef commentarymagazine.com June 27, 2021 The prospective government was referred to by its Halacha, and the Arabs – a s tate defined as “the state of all opponents as based on fraud, dangerous to Israel’s its citizens.” If either of these communities will be security, “Left,” incoherent and therefore illegitimate. alienated to the point of deciding to break the rules of the In the beginning o f December 2019, I published an game, Israel’s liberal democratic regime will be greatly article in The Post with the title “The ’s weakened. legitimation function – a temporary breakdown?” The Since I wrote my previous article on the subject conduct of the new opposition these days, following the several changes have taken place, which somewhat changes formation of the new government led by Naftali Bennett, the political balance within the system. The first is that the suggests that since my original article was written, ultra - Orthodox parties, which have participated in most somewhere between the first and second rounds of governments to the present, are in the opposition, and the elections in 2019, the situation has further deteriorated, to second is th at for the first time in Israel’s history an Arab worrying dimensions. party – Ra’am (United Arab List) – is part of the coalition. Just a short reminder of what is meant by “the However, the most critical change is that for the first Knesset’s legitimation f unction.” The legitimation function time in 12 years the , headed by of a parliament refers to the fact that by participating in is in the opposition, together w ith the ultra - Orthodox the work of the parliament, and playing by the rules of the parties, the and the , and game, MPs perform an important role in legitimizing the since the swearing in of the new government, the Jewish system of government in the eyes of their vo ters. parties in the opposition are engaged in a systematic and This function is of special importance in the case of ruthless smearing and delegitimization campaign against MPs who belong to parties, which are not happy with the th e government and its head. current system of government, and would like to replace it The driving force behind the campaign, since it with a totally different system. became evident that there was a real chance that the In Israel’s case this is especially important wi th regards Government of Change would materialize, was Netanyahu to the ultra - Orthodox MKs and the Arab MKs, who himself. After Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid informed together represent 30% of the population, and each of President Reuven Rivli n and then - Knesset speaker Yariv which would like Israel to have a totally different regime: Levin on June 2, that he had managed to form a the haredim a theocratic state run on the basis of the government in which Bennett would serve first as prime Page 3 July 3, 2021 Focus on Israel

minister and would be replaced by himself in August 2023, members on the other can veto policies to which they all hell broke loose. object. The prospective government was referred t o by its Secondly, Sa’ar informed potential voters all along the opponents as based on fraud, dangerous to Israel’s last election campaign that if they want a government led security, “Left,” incoherent and therefore illegitimate, with by Netanyahu they shouldn’t vote for his party, while the ultra - Orthodox parties adding their ha’penny to the Bennett kept declaring that his main goal was to avoid fifth rampant demagoguery by accusing it of being intent on elections, and that he preferred a right - wing government – destroying Israel’s Jewi sh character. if one could be formed – whi ch proved impossible, with Bennett was referred to as a crook, a liar, unqualified Netanyahu as leader of the Likud. to serve as prime minister and lacking a concrete political In addition, it is not illegitimate for a party to act base, all of which added up to making him illegitimate in differently than it had promised in its election campaign. the eyes of his critics. In his last speech as prime minister, did so in his agreement to the peace deal Netan yahu spoke of toppling the new government as soon with Egypt, which involv ed returning the whole of Sinai to as possible, without giving it even 100 days of grace. Egypt; did so with the ; Ariel Of course, it is perfectly legitimate for the losing side Sharon did so with the unilateral withdrawal from Gush in elections to express its negative feelings about a new ; and and did so when they government and a new prime minister . However, there are joined the emergency government with Netanyahu just limits to what may be legitimately said and done, and it is o ver a year ago. especially not legitimate to fabricate and forge facts to As to the fact that Bennett heads a parliamentary “substantiate” the factual basis of the complaints against group with only seven members (one of whom voted the government and its head. against the formation of the government), the law does not In their attacks on the legit imacy of the government provide for the leader of the largest party being the only there are numerous lies and untruths that are continuously one who can form a gove rnment. In fact, the leader of any repeated. For example, it is said that “a majority of the party, no matter what its size, can form a government as people” do not support the new government. This may long as there is a majority that supports the government, equally be said about the right - wing religious government and this is certainly the case at the moment, even though that Netanyahu tried to form – not because there isn’t a the majority is narrow, and the balance could ch ange. large Jewish majority that wants a right - wing - religious However, what is most disturbing about the current government, but because there isn’t a Jewish majority that situation is that a large part of the opposition is currently wants a right - wing - religious government headed by busy delegitimizing the government and the system of Netanyahu, and consequently the Arab pa rties all of a government that enabled it to come into being, and that sudden found themselves in the position of kingmakers. large parts of the public ar e listening to and absorbing The fact that Mansour Abbas decided to join the what it is saying. government and provide it with a slim majority, resulted In other words, close to half of the MKs are not mainly from the refusal of the Religious Zionist Party to performing their legitimation function, but rather a agree to serve in a gov ernment dependent on the support delegitimization function. The fact that most of these MKs of any of the Arab parties. have reservations about the liberal democratic system, and Then there is the claim that Bennett and would prefer a conservative democracy that does not place leader Gideon Sa’ar were elected by right - wing voters, who much value on human rights and equality for women, were then fraudulently used to form a left - wing minorities and the gay community, gives rise to some grim government. First of all, the new gove rnment is not a left - thoughts about what lurks ahead. wing government. It is a government of parity in which the Ms. Rolef is a former researcher in the Knesset Re search and right - wing members on the one hand and the Left/Center Information Center . Hamas Were Likely Responsible for a Third of the Palestinian Deaths in the Last By Dr. Alex Safian besacenter.org Jun 27, 2021 By the logic of Israel ’s critics, Nazi was the aggressor, because 14 times more Germans than victim in World War II and the U.S. the unlawful Americans were killed. aggressor. Beyond this, if one looks at the numbers from the Numbers were at the heart of much of the coverage May conflict more closely, they tell a very different story and commentary surrounding the fighting in May between from that prop ounded by Hamas and most media outlets. Hamas and Israel. One example was the front page New First, some baseline facts. In the 11 days of fighting York T imes story and photo spread about the number of between Israel and Gaza, Hamas and similar groups (mostly) Palestinian children killed. The images were launched at least 4,360 rockets and bombs (rockets, accompanied by charges that because more Palestinians for short) at Israel. Of those, 3,573 penetrated Israeli died, Israel must have used disproportionate force and airspace, 280 landed in the Mediter ranean, and a significant therefore committed a . By this logi c, Nazi 680 fell short and landed in Gaza (according to the Germany was the victim in WWII and the US the unlawful Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center [ITIC]). Foc us o n Is rae l July 3, 2021 Page 4

The obvious question arises: How many deaths in To really know how many would require evidence like Gaza were caused by those 680 errant Palestinian rockets? radar intercepts, eyewitness testimony, and forensic Hamas might know, but of course it isn’t saying. examination of specific locations for each incident, none So estimates will have to do. As explained below, an of which is ever likely to be available. In addition, Hamas analysis of the best information currently available has been known to remove evidence from sites where its indicates that about 91 Palestinians were probably killed by own rockets caused the damage . off - course Palestinian rockets. Despite these difficulties, it is possible to come up To arrive at this estimat e, let’s first look at the with a rough estimate based on existing data: Palestinian targeting of Israel. Of the rockets headed for We can estimate the average lethality of Palestinian Israel, about 1,963 were ignored by Israel’s projectiles that were missed by Iron Dome and landed in system after calculations showed they populated areas. This number is then used in a first would miss populated and other sensitive areas, 1,450 were estimate of the number of deaths in Gaza from the 680 ju dged to be a threat and were intercepted by Iron Dome, Palestinian rockets that landed there. and about 160 were missed by Iron Dome and hit In calculating deaths in Gaza due to errant rockets, a protected areas. possible correction factor should be employed because This is extrapolated from the ITIC numbers above Gaza has a much higher population density than Israel. and from data published by Edward Luttwak regarding the Israel has a very effective civil defense system that uses number of projectiles missed by Iron Dome and that hit early warning sirens and app alerts to notify people of protected areas. A report by The Institute for National rockets heading their way so they can rush to a shelter. Security Studies at University published numbers There are concrete shelters along highways and on roads in similar to Luttwak’s. Israeli cities c lose to Gaza, and many homes in Israel have Thirteen were killed in the fighting, but not all reinforced safe rooms. All new construction is required to the deaths were directly due to s or mortars. One of have such rooms, and many older homes have been the Israeli victims was an IDF soldier stationed near the retrofitted at government expense. These measures greatly border who was killed when an anti - tank weapon hit his minimize casualties even for rockets that explo de in Jeep, and three Israeli civilians died after falling while populated areas and create a further correction factor running toward bomb shelters. Thus, nine Israelis were when comparing to deaths that would be caused by similar killed a s a direct result of mortar or rocket attacks, which rockets falling inside Gaza. gives a measure of the lethality of the Palestinian One way to estimate the impact of Israel’s civil projectiles. (Also note that it is a sign of how seriously defense is to look at the early stages of the Second Israelis take civil defense that three people were killed Lebanon War (2006), which included sustained rocket fire running toward a shelter). by Hezbollah into Israel. This was before Iron Dome, and On the Palestinian side, as of May 27 a total of 256 at a time when Israel’s civil defenses were not as robust as Palestinians were listed as killed in the fighting, according they are today. At the start of the conflict, Israel’s early to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian warning system to alert peo ple to seek shelter was not Affairs. working very well, which reduced the system’s There is direct evidence that some of these Palestinian effectiveness. We will use this period as a rough proxy for deaths were caused by errant Palestinian rockets and Gaza, which has no civil defense system. mortars that fell in Gaza rather than in Israel. The NGO Over the first three days of the 2006 conflict, 367 Defense for Children International - Palestine (an extremely rockets landed in Israel, cau sing four deaths. This gives an anti - Israel organization) tweeted on May 11 that on the RPF (rockets per fatality) of 367/4, or almost 92. previous day, a Palestinian rocket landed in Jabalya in In the recent conflict with Gaza, Israel did have Iron nort hern Gaza that killed eight Palestinians, including two Dome, but we can correct for that and determine the children. effect of civil defense alone by estimating how many In another tweet, the same organization noted an Israelis woul d have been killed by rockets had Iron Dome explosion, also on May 10, in Beit Hanoun in which six not been present. Because Iron Dome shot down 1,450 Palestinian children and two adults were killed, though it threatening rockets but missed 160, and nine people were could not confirm the cause . According to ITIC, those killed, the number who would likely have been killed deaths too were caused by a Palestinian rocket that went without Iron Dome is approximately 9 × astray. (1,450+160) /160, or about 91. That 16 Palestinians, including eight children, were We can thus determine that the RPF without Iron killed in just one day by two errant Palestinian rockets Dome would have been 3,573/91, or about 39. underscores just how dangerous these projectiles are. Therefore, the effect of civil defense in saving lives Considering that 680 Palestinian rockets and mortars (i.e., the civil defense factor) can be estimated as 92/39, or landed inside Gaza during the 11 days of fighting, this one - about 2.4. day toll suggests that a significant number of Gaza It should be not ed that there have been other residents were killed by those weapons. estimates of the impact of Israeli civil defense. According Page 5 July 3, 2021 Focus on Israel to The Effectiveness of Rocket Attacks and Defenses in From long and unfortunate experience with wars and Israel (Armstrong 2018), that factor is as high as 8.8, while Palestinian terrorism, Israel has developed a world - class according to Mass Casualty system for dealing with life - threatening Potential of Qassam Ro ckets injuries, meaning that a significant (Zucker and Kaplan, 2014, a portion of the Israelis who sustained study that looked specifically at serious wounds in the current round of the Israeli city of , which fighting would have died with the lower is adjacent to Gaza), the factor level of trauma care typical in Gaza. was between 3 and 9. This would again increase the estimate As a very conservative estimate, we will use the figure of Palestinian deaths, but as with the building factor, it calculated above of 2.4, meaning that withou t Israel’s civil does not seem possible to account for thi s difference in a defense measures, casualties and deaths would have been quantitative way, so it is ignored in the above analysis. at least 2.4 times higher. It would be helpful if Israel released information on We start by calculating, before any correction factors, the number and types of mortars and rockets fired from the probable death toll from 680 errant rockets based on Gaza, and their intended targets (such information has the lethality of the 160 rockets that lande d in populated sometimes been r eleased in the past). These data would areas in Israel. This number is: 680/160 × 9, or just over enable a more precise calculation of the population density 38. correction factor. Now we consider whether a correction factor is It is possible that Israel knows, via radar intercepts and needed for the difference in population density between other sources, details of what types of Palestinian Gaza and Israel. According to data from the Palestinian projectiles went astray, an d where and what they hit in Central Bureau of S tatistics, the population density of Gaza. This information would allow a definitive Gaza is 5,772 people per square kilometer. According to accounting of the casualties caused by errant Palestinian Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, Israel’s population projectiles. However, if such data exists, publicizing it density is 402 people per square kilometer (of land). might reveal sensitive sources and methods, so its release However, because we’re looking at rockets that lan ded seem s unlikely. in populated areas in Israel, the relevant number is the If Hamas insists on attacking Israel, the least it could population density for typical Israeli communities that do is use some of the large amounts of foreign aid it has have been targeted by Hamas rockets, such as: received (for example, the $2.7 billion pledged in 2014) to Because these are roughly comparable to the build, as Israel has, civil defenses to protect its population. population density for the whole of Gaza, as a fi rst Inste ad, it has devoted almost all its efforts to attacking approximation we omit a correction factor for population Israel with weapons such as rockets, mortars, incendiary density. balloons, snipers, and anti - tank rockets. Next we apply the civil defense correction factor, But perhaps its greatest spending has been on the giving the final result: 38 × 2.4 = just over 91. construction of extensive tunnels and facilities und er Gaza Recalling that on the first day of fighting 16 to hide its fighters, leaders, arms caches, and rocket Palestinians were killed by Palestinia n rockets and mortars, launchers. Each mile of tunnel is estimated to cost it is plausible to extrapolate an estimate that in 11 days of $800,000. Up to 2014 alone, it was estimated that Hamas fighting, 91 Palestinians would be similarly killed. had spent over $1.25 billion on tunnel construction. There are several other factors and some possible Consider how much good could hav e been done for improvements to be considered. the Palestinian people of Gaza had that money been spent Buildings that collapse due to nearby explosions cause on civilian development. Instead, even though Hamas extra deaths. This is significant because many buildings in knows full well that attacking Israel will provoke a Gaza may have been undermined by Hamas tunneling, response, rather than providing protection for Gaza’s adding to their inability to withstand shaking and civilians Hamas digs tun nels underneath those civilians — increasing the Palestinian death toll. I n an least one case an in fact, hides behind them — at enormous cost. Israeli bomb targeting a Hamas tunnel is believed to have Dr. Alex Safian is Associate Director of CAMERA (the caused such a collapse of an adjacent building, causing Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting and Analysis) . over 20 deaths. However, it does not seem possible to Visit suburba northodox.or g f or t he current iss ue . account for these differences in a quantitative way, so they are ignored in the above analysis. Obtaining Calm in Gaza Might Not Be Wor th the Cost By Dan Schueftan israelhayom.com June 22, 2021 Hope, not despair, motivates Palestinian terror . Unless Jerusalem is provoked, it does not act against For the past several days, Hamas has not sent the terrorist organization, allowing Hamas to use periods incendiary balloons across the border into Israel. One of calm to regain strength that would be used against Israel might think this is good news, but is it? Foc u s o n Israel July 3, 2021 Page 6

in concert with Iran and Hezbollah once hostilities break context. They tell themselves that the Palestinian people again. have turned to violence out of despair brought about by If Hamas was to continue with its most recent ignorance or e conomic hardship. provocations, Jerusalem would have no choice but to take In reality, it is the Palestinian addiction to violence and action and potentially deny the organization the their deliberate avoidance of creating a state that brought concessions it seeks. about the hardship in the first place. If one looks at the Clearly, Israel has learned nothing from its history of situation in an unbiased matter, one will see that it is ho pe, prisoner exchanges, in which it has released thousa nds of rather than desperation, that drives the Palestinian people: murderers only to have them engage in more terrorism. the hope that their violent instincts could be gratified, that Israel has in the past entered into such agreements in they could punish the for building prosperous lives order to get back MIAs or other Israelis who had been and finally put an end to their existence in the Middle East. captured by Hamas. This time, however, what Hamas has This hope increases when the Jews are forced to to offer are bodies of two falle n soldiers and two civilians essentially "subsidize" the war against them for fear that who crossed the border into the strip. Even if Hamas were Gaza will fall into a humanitarian crisis and lend them a to receive only a fraction of its demands, Israel would get hand with a false expectation that it would curb the back bodies at the price of many Israelis whose names we violence. will only get to know after they are killed. Let us hope that the Palestinians wil l continue, as they The mat ter of financial aid should also be looked at in always have, to prove the disappointing truth about their a strategic context. The "Hamas state" is the flagship of national priorities, so that Israel would have no choice but the , for it is the only "state" in which stop them by force. they are in power. That is also why and Qatar are This is what saved the Jewish state when the so eager to support it. Palestinians rejected the Partition Plan in 1947, an d what The brot herhood is keen on returning the entire Arab torpedoed 's plans during the world to an era of violence against Israel. They have set (the Palestinian terrorism campaign some 20 years ago). out to prove that it is possible to bomb Israel, kill Jews and Israel would be well - served if it employs the same burn their forests and fields, and still receive utilities, fuel, approach elsewhere, not only in Gaza. The fact that many and medical services at the same time. Israeli Arabs took part re cently in violent clashes in Israel If no one holds Hamas responsible for waging a has helped convince Israeli military officials that they must constant war, and any military damage is easily repaired prepare the for the scenario in with aid from the US and Israel, why would it stop killing which some citizens would help Hamas fight the Jewish Jews? This option – in which barbaric violence brings state. gratification, prestige and livelihood – is the most A long - term truce is desirable, but a so - ca lled calm dangerous message to Israel and the whole region. that is only used by our enemies to grow stronger would Many in Israel prefer not to look at the broader be unacceptable The 2021 Gaza War 2021: Iran, Hezbollah and the ‘’ By Shimon Shapira and Michael Segall jns.org Jun 29, 2021 For Iran, “Palestine” is only one part of a com plex Palestinian Islam ic Jihad leaders maintained telephone strategy aimed at Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, and contacts with Iran’s top brass, including Khamenei and the Lebanon; each arena has its own blueprint, a toolbox heads of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Hamas leader of hostile insurgency actions and the guidance of and PIJ leader Ziyad al - Nakhalah spoke Hezbollah, the and well - trained militias. with Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, commander - in - chief of the A few hours after the between Israel and IRGC, who promised, on behalf of the Islamic Republic, Gaza on May 21, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali that “Iran would not desert the Palestinians and will stand Khamenei issued a “victory message” praising “the by their side and support them with all the means at its cooperation between the , Gaza, and Israeli disposal, up until the final, impending destruction of the Arabs for showing the path for the Palestinians in the enemy [Israel].” future.” Israel, he said, “will now be w eaker in light of the B oth Nakhalah and Haniyeh traveled to Iran to attend rising power of the Palestinians and the jihad the Jan. 7, 2020 funeral of IRGC Quds Force commander organizations.” Qassem Soleimani. Haniyeh delivered a eulogy, and he and The Iranian leader called for Israel to be indicted for Nakhalah were given places of honor right behind its “shocking crimes,” and said its actions had caused a Khameini, President Hassan Rouhani, and pres ident - elect “wave of hatred around the world” which had spilled over Ebrahim Raisi. t o its allies, in particular the United States. He also urged Following the May conflict, Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, to pressure their governments to donate money Soleimani’s successor as commander of the Quds Force, to rebuild Gaza. sent letters to the “commanders of the Palestinian During the 11 days of fighting in May between Israel resistance,” including Hamas military commander and terror groups in the , senior Hamas and Muhammad Deif. In one letter to Deif, the “Living Page 7 July 3, 2021 Focus on Israel

Martyr” [because of his many battle wounds], Ghaani with its decision to “fulfill its threat in response to [Israel’s] praised the resistance organizations’ deployment for the Judaizing [of] al - Quds [Jerusalem].” campaign and “preparing the tools necessary for the He warned that in future, “activity in al - Quds against crushing victory,” despite the harsh conditions. Islamic holy sites” by Israel would spark a regional wa r. Ghaani, in the spi rit of the Supreme Leader’s remarks, Echoing Khamenei’s statement about Palestinian also praised the cohesion of the Palestinian people, “the unity, Nasrallah said that one of the Gaza terror groups’ Muslims in Palestine — in Jerusalem, Gaza, the West Bank most important achievements during the conflict “was the and the Palestinian cities occupied since 1948” (referring mobilization of Palestinians inside 1948 lands, which to the Arab riots in Acre, Lod, Ramla, an d Jaffa). He terrified Israel.” Israel, he said, h ad failed to predict the stated that the Palestinians “demonstrated that they are a response of the “1948 Arabs.” dynamic and living nation making its way toward victory.” The conflict had also impacted the normalization In his letter to the commander of PIJ’s military wing, trend between Israel and Arab states, the Hezbollah leader Ghaani praised the organization’s firm stance, that said. “destroyed the arrogance of the Zionist enemy and Nasrallah said that the “Sword of Jerusalem,” as demonstrated that Jerusalem is not alone in the campaign.” Hamas called the conflict, had severel y damaged the He also wrote that PIJ had weapons “beyo nd the normalization process between Israel and the Arab states. imagination of the Zionist enemy.” He blessed Soleimani’s The Trump administration’s peace plan had “collapsed and memory and his contribution to the “resistance” struggle, disappeared” since “Israel’s real face and its apartheid and vowed to continue in his path. regime were exposed,” he said. Nasrallah also stressed the During the rocket barrages on Israel, PIJ revealed an steadfast s tance of the “Axis of Resistance” in the various improved Kassam rocket, each of which had be en countries that constituted the “backbone that supported “signed” in memory of Soleimani. After the round of the victory in Palestine,” and particularly emphasized the fighting, Iran unveiled an unmanned aerial craft called support of Iraqi Shi’ite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani “Gaza” and a radar system called “Quds” to demonstrate and the Houthis of Yemen. their solidarity with the Palestinians. A join t command center in Beirut PIJ’s spokesman in the Gaza Strip, Abu Hamza, issu ed Meanwhile, sources close to Hezbollah revealed that a statement at the end of the campaign in which he praised the IRGC, Hamas and Hezbollah had established a joint Iran and the rest of the “Axis of Resistance” for helping to military operations center in Beirut during the Gaza war. fight in Gaza. Their weapons, as well as their provided Ibrahim al - Amin, editor - in - chief of the Lebanese daily Al - expertise, he said, brought strength and abilities to the Akhbar, said during an interview with Al - Manar TV on resistance brigades (Muqawama), both materially and June 2 that officers from all three groups coordinated the technically. “You share our victory, and together we will military confrontation in Gaza, adding that the victoriously enter al - Aqsa [],” he said. PIJ leader commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani, Al - Nakhalah sent a congratulatory letter to the Iranian had visited Lebanon twice to attend the command cent er Supreme Leader noting Iran’s support of the organiz ation meetings. and its role “in the victory achieved.” Hezbollah transmitted weaponry and ammunition to Hezbollah’s response Gaza, and also moved Hamas and PIJ officers out of the In a May 25 speech marking “Resistance and Strip during the fighting, according to Al - Amin. The Liberation Day,” commemorating Israel’s withdrawal from “Islamic Resistance” also provided the Palestinian factions southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah Secretary - General with the needed data about the movements of the Israeli praised “leaders of the Palestinian “occupation” military, he said. resistance movements and their military wings” for their During the war, Hezbollah did not respond militarily, “brilliant moves” during the Gaza war. “The [final] goal is satisfying itself with organizing demonstrations near the Palestine. The resistance victory in May 2000 was border fence with Israel and in several areas of Lebanon. dedicated to Palestine and was a strategic turning point in Hezbollah also allowed l imited and symbolic rocket fire the struggle with Israel. From now on, we will celebrate into Israel to show support and solidarity with the two great victories in May — the 25th of the year 2000, and Palestinians during the war. the 21st in 2021 — marking Gaza’s victory,” said Nasrallah. Hezbollah’s response reflects its sensitive and The Hezbollah leader said Israel’s “dangerous activity complicated situation in Lebanon following the massive in Jerusalem” had pushed the leaders of the Palestinian explosion at the port of Beirut on Aug. 4, 2020, and the organizations to take a “historic, decisive and new stance.” country’s dire economic situation. Furthermore, Hezbollah The war, he said, had erupted as a response to “the continues to be involved militarily in Syria and is subject to foolishness of Israel’s leadership, its arrogance, domestic criticism on this issue as well. An all - out underestimating the resistance, and miscalculations.” Gaza, confrontation with Israel is also impossible, of course, he added, had s urprised both its friends and its enemies without a green light from Tehran. Focus o n I srael July 3, 2021 P age 8

As the Gaza operation unfolded, Iran held nuclear This includes setting objectives (strategic infrastructure talks in Vienna with the remaining signatories of the 2015 and energy infrastructure), efforts to overcome Israel’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear agreement Iron Dome with Hezbollah’s support, and the maritime regarding the possibility of returning to the JCPOA activities that were exposed in the latest conflict. framework. Thus , a round of escalation in Lebanon In this co ntext, the Hamas naval force and attempts to involving Hezbollah would not serve Iran’s broader damage the Israeli gas rigs in the Mediterranean must be interests now. Iran does not want to put the issue of its mentioned. Here we see an effort by Hamas and PIJ, malign activity in the region on the agenda during the supported by Iran and Hezbollah, to copy the capabilities nuclear talks, giving the United States the option to dis rupt of the Houthis in Yemen in their attacks agai nst Saudi the negotiations. If an agreement is signed and the United Arabia, and the Shi’ite militias in in attacks against the States rejoins the JCPOA, which it left under Trump in United States. These efforts involve long - range attack 2018, Iran will then feel freer (and richer) to unleash its drones, GPS - guided, unmanned suicide vessels, Axis of Resistance throughout the Middle East. underwater guided weapons and long - range missiles. The Hezbollah’s lessons from the G aza war Houthis are using these ca pabilities against oil For offensive operations, Hezbollah will seek to: infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and against civilian 1. Strengthen its rocket and missile arm and infrastructure such as airports, power plants and accelerate its guided - missile project . In its view, rocket desalination facilities. and missile weaponry is a “tiebreaker” and changes the The Iranian objective is to duplicate the military rules of the game against Israel; it id entifies Israel’s home capabilities it develops from arena to arena (as in the case front as a central weak point. This process is the of roadside bombs [IEDs] that originated with Hezbollah continuation of the implementation of the Iranian doctrine in Lebanon and were used in attacks against coalition of asymmetrical warfare. forces in Iraq). Yemen serves toda y as the largest testing 2. Disrupt Israel’s missile defense systems. ground for new weapons in the region. Lebanese 3. Prepare for the occupation of territory in the Hezbollah advisers serve as instructors in aerial weaponry Gal ilee, including the use of invasion tunnels . In this (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, unmanned aircraft and context, it was recently reported that Hezbollah had drones) as well as naval weaponry (unmanned underwater established a network of tunnels spanning hundreds of vehicles [ UUV], explosive - laden boats, and submarine kilometers, including command and control complexes, platforms). Iran seeks to develop these capabilities and test from Beirut to southern Lebanon, aimed at a ttacking IDF them in the military arena against Israeli civilian targets, forces in the event of a ground maneuver in Lebanese strategic infrastructure and military targets. territory.14 In light of Israel’s new ability to identify In the 2021 fighting, Hamas attempted to la unch tunnels and the damage done by the IDF to Hamas’s drones, unmanned aircraft, and naval weapons alongside tunnels in Gaza during the May conflict, Hezbollah may be more traditional Iranian - backed techniques such as Kornet required to rethink thei r use during combat. anti - tank missiles, which were supplied to Gaza by Iran, as 4. Damage Israeli facilities and strategic well as “Sayyad” sniper rifles, an Iranian knock - off an economic and military infrastructures. Austrian sniper rifle, the Steyr HS.50. For defensive operations, Hezbollah will seek to: In the event of a comprehensive conflict in the north, 1 . Design a new deterrence equation vis - a - vis Hezbollah, which refrained from involvement in the Gaza Israel : “Activity in Jerusalem will lead to a regional wa r,” war, may be expected to bring to bear against Israel air and warning Israel not to repeat the “Gaza miscalculation” sea capabilities similar to those of the Houthis. with Lebanon. In the end, the Gaza war, like other operations in 2. Obtain anti - aircraft systems. Hezbollah will make Gaza and Lebanon, constitutes a “Divine event” for Iran, efforts with Iran to place improved and concealed anti - proving the justice of its ways and that Israel can be aircraft systems in Lebanon to protect against possible eliminated with patience and endurance. in Leban ese territory. Iran’s resistance and revolution all begin with 3. Protect against targeted killings of senior Khomeini Hezbollah figures. Ayatollah Ru hollah Khomeini’s activist interpretation Iranian aid will continue and even increase of Shi’ite Islam and the revolution in Shi’ism that he led Iranian aid to Hamas and PIJ is constant and flows are constantly being validated, especially for Iran’s current through various channels, regardless of the economic leaders. They connect Khomeini’s teachings to the situation in Iran and Leban on. The know - how and successes in the Iranian national - ideologic al dimension weaponry Iran transfers to Hamas through the Quds Force (confronting sanctions, surviving the Trump and Hezbollah — as well as training in Lebanon (as administration and ex - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Hezbollah Deputy Secretary - General Netanyahu); maintaining an active military nuclear admitted) or on Iranian soil — also have a decisive program; overthrowing Saddam Hussein; Shi’ite revival in influence on how Hamas and PIJ co nduct their operations. Iraq; the “victories” of the Palestin ian organizations and Page 9 July 3, 2021 Focus on Israel

Hezbollah against Israel (with Iran’s support); and in the Sup reme Leader’s prophecies of Israel’s annihilation are religious dimension (the “Mahdi hand” and Divine materializing. intervention). For Iran, “Palestine” is only one part of a complex All of these achievements strengthen and shape their strategy of building the Axis of Resistance from the belief in the righteousness of their path and the rational e Persian Gulf to Lebanon, aimed at Saudi Arabia, Yemen, which demonstrates resilience and the need for continued Syria, and Lebanon; each ar ena has its own blueprint, a resistance by the Iranian people. toolbox of hostile insurgency actions, and the guidance of Iran believes that the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon Hezbollah, the Quds Force and well - trained militias. in 2000 and the Palestinian resilience in Jerusalem and Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s newly elected president, who is Gaza follow Khomeini’s previous “prophecies” about t he part of the system and who was shaped by it, will further collapse of the (Communism) and Saddam’s str engthen this predicament by defying the West, calling fall. They believe his prophecy regarding the destruction of for the destruction of Israel (using Jerusalem as a common Israel will eventually be fulfilled, and that Iran has the denominator), and pursuing regional hegemony through power to bring it about. Iran’s current leader, Khamenei, subversion, ballistic missiles, and Iran’s nuclear program. follows in his predec essor’s footsteps. He stated in IDF Brig. Gen. (ret.) Dr. Shap ira is a senior research September 2015 that Israel would not exist in 25 years. associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs IDF Lt. Col. In this regard, Khamenei’s recent speech, (ret.) Segall, is a senior analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public prior to the clashes in Jerusalem and the subsequent Gaza Affairs and at Alcyon Risk Advisors . war, is touted as “prophetic” and demonstrates that th e In Israel, Is Ev erybody’s Son, and His Wedding Everybody’s Celebration y danielgordis.substack.com Jun 28, 2021 Rejoicing in the voice of the groom and voice of the event worth noting; it is, though, because of how the bride in the towns of Judah. country reacted, and what tha t reaction tells us about this A decade ago, perhaps a bit place. more, I dropped by our local The headline ( See photo ) about makolet (an Israeli institution - a Shalit’s having tiny neighborhood grocery store) gotten married was classic Israeli. early in the morning. The makolet Ha - yeled shel kulanu, it read, “He’s stacks the for sale the son of all of us” [bad English, outside the front door, so you can’t but there’s no good way to render help taking a look at the hea dlines the Hebrew]. Then it continues: as you head in. “Gilad Shalit married Nitzan That morning, the lead story was about Ron Arad, the .” IAF navigator shot down over Lebanon and taken Ha - yeled shel kulanu was what got me to remember prisoner in October 1986 and about whose fate Israel has that woman with the gasp outside the makolet. Ron Arad, never gotten any solid information. A new source had Gilad Shalit, and too many others — this is a place where surfaced, the paper rep orted, according to whom Arad had you actually have kids you’ve never met. tried to escape in 1988, had been re - captured and tortured Zechariah Baumel was one of several soldiers taken to death. There were some hints at what might have been prisoner when their unit was attacked in the battle of done to him, all too gruesome to repeat here. Sultan Yakub in June 1982. For years, Israel knew virtually I grabbed what I needed and headed to the cash nothing about his fate. Baumel’s father, Yona, devoted the register, whic h happens to be adjacent to the door. As I rest of his life to pressi ng Israel to do more to get waited, I heard the strangest sound, and looked outside. information, and as part of this many - years - long campaign, There was a woman standing there, her hand to her face, he ended up speaking to the middle school class of one of covering what was now a visible gasp. Her face was our sons. wracked with horror. She had obviously read the a rticle, Our son came home, and over dinner, told us about too. Baumel’s presentation. During the Q&A portion, he t old That image of that woman has stayed with me all these us, one of his classmates asked Baumel if he worried that years. Zechariah was still being tortured. I grimaced; middle But I hadn’t thought of her, whoever she was, in a school kids don’t yet know what you don’t ask. But I long time. Until earlier this week, when Israeli news didn’t say anything, and our son continued. “No,” Yona reported that Gilad Shalit (the Israeli soldier captured by Baumel told the kids, “I don’t worry that they’re torturing Hamas in a 2006 c ross - border raid and then held in him. I just worry that he’s cold at night.” captivity for five years) had just gotten married, some ten It was silent at our dinner table. years after his release. That night, when we got into bed, I was pulling the Gilad Shalit’s getting married might not seem like an blankets over me, and stopped. It all came back — the Focus o n I srael July 3, 2021 P age 10 imagine of the father speaking to our kid, t he father’s our boys at the age that they were, Shalit’s fate and the image of his son cold without a blanket, my son’s pained terror it evoked became part of our family’s unspoken face as he’d told us about school. There was no way I was Shabbat ritual. going to fall asleep; I got out of bed and read for a few Ha - yeled shel kulanu. hours. Even when I went back to bed, I actually felt guilty The prisoner exchange that Israel made for Gilad pulling the covers up. Shalit (who was born six weeks before Ron Arad was shot It’s customary in many synagogues throughout the down) was highly controversial in Israel. Israel traded world to recite, somewhere in the middle of the reading of 1,027 prisoners for Shalit, many of them “with blood on the Torah on Shabbat morning, a mi shebeirach, a prayer their hands” (an Israeli idiom meaning that they for those who are ill. In Israel, in many synagogues, it is themselves had murdered Israelis). The hard core terrorists also customary to ad d a similar one for Israeli prisoners of among them, vehement critics of the deal said, would kill war, praying for their return. The list is not long, Israelis again, and sure enough, some did. thankfully, so after hearing it week after week after week, I was personally in favor of the deal, both as it was year after year, you know the list by heart. In the early being negotiated and publicly d ebated in Israel, and as it years of the previous decade, it included, a mong others, unfolded. I understood my friends who thought it was a Zechariah Baumel, Ron Arad, and Gilad Shalit. terrible mistake, but I disagreed with them. What makes In 2003, the IDF declared Baumel dead. (His father Israel into Israel, I believed then and still do, is that we get died in 2009; in 2019, Vladimir Putin coordinated a deal in those boys home, no matter what. which Zechariah’s remains were brought to Israel for [The helicopter pil ot who brought Gilad Shalit home burial.) His parents objected to the IDF’s decision, but the was the son of Yishai Aviram, the pilot of the plane in army insisted that it had reason to believe Baumel had died which Ron Arad had been the navigator when they were in captivity. The next Shabbat, the person reciting the mi shot down; Aviram was rescued by an Israeli helicopter a shebeirach omitted Baumel’s name. It was horribly jarring; few hours after they were shot down and escaped by it felt as if something had been ripped out. clingi ng to its landing skids while under heavy enemy fire, As if on cue, an argument erupted. “What are you but Arad was captured by Lebanese terrorists. Aviram’s doing?” someone yelled, horrified that we’d “given up” on son insisted that he be the one to bring Shalit back home.] getting Baumel back. Someone else retorted that the What makes Israeli society what it is, is that there was person was only following what the army had declared. no one in Israel who did not k now who Gilad Shalit was. The dispute died down after a few moments, but i t had There was no one who did not think about him. gotten quite heated. Though I recall the argument, I no That’s not only who we are, it’s why we are. longer remember what was decided. What I do remember Not long ago, desperate for some additional closet is the intensity of the feelings in the room, all about a space, I went to put some clothes in a closet in the person none of us had ever met. He was almost certainly bedroom that had once been our son’ s. I slid open the dead — that much, we all knew . But there were those who door to the closet, and then, right in front of me, was a were adamant that his name not be dropped because bumper sticker he’d affixed to one of the drawers — "Gilad giving up hope was too painful. is still alive” it reads. Baumel, as the news had said of Shalit earlier this Gilad has now been home for a decade. And our sons week, was ha - yeled shel kulanu. have been out of the house for about as long. No need for Shortly after Gilad Shalit was captured, the weekend the sticker, I thought, and I almost peeled it off. paper arri ved with an insert — a prayer it asked women to But then I left it there — something about recite on Friday afternoons when they lit Shabbat candles, remembering those agonizing years of uncertainty his fate a prayer for Shalit’s safe return. My wife saw the insert, put felt sacred. Ha - yeled shel kulanu. it on the breakfront where we keep the candlesticks, and So Shalit’s wedding (you can watch a brief clip of it began, week after week, to read it as she lit candles. We her e, on an Israeli news site) became a bit of a short - lived had boys around army - age back then, so any mention of national story this week. As well it should have. Both the Gilad Shalit was not only heartbreaking — it was also “national” and the “short - lived.” National because we did terrifying. What had happened to him could happen to the right thing bringing him home. Short - lived because he others, we and all our friends with kids the same age knew. deserves his normal lif e. So I got u sed to seeing, Friday after Friday after He deserved to come home, and he deserves to live Friday, every week for five years, when she finished however he wants. He deserves, in short, precisely what lighting candles before Shabbat, Elisheva’s eyes slightly we’d want for any of our kids. After all, as the headline red. We never, ever spoke about it; the thought was too correctly noted, he’s ha - yeled shel kulanu. horrifying to utter aloud. But with Shalit in ca ptivity, and

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