Market Study of Potential Employment Opportunities in the Vicinity of the Altamonte Springs SunRail Station
Submitted by:
RENAISSANCE PLANNING GROUP 121 S. Orange Avenue, Suite 1200, Orlando, FL 32801 July 2014
MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Table of Contents Executive Summary ...... 1 Introduction ...... 5 Local Area Overview...... 8 Job Creation Analysis ...... 11 Job Access Analysis ...... 29 Conclusions and Potential Strategies ...... 37
MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
List of Figures Figure 1 - Study Area Map ...... 6 Figure 2 - Educational Attainment of Study Area Residents Age 25+ ...... 16 Figure 3 - Figure 3: Seminole County Job Openings and Wages by Education Level ...... 17 Figure 4 - Figure 4: Study Area Employment by Industry Sector ...... 18 Figure 5 - Office Space Inventory of Suburban Submarkets ...... 21 Figure 6 - Office Space Vacancy in Suburban Submarkets ...... 22 Figure 7 - Office Space Rents in Suburban Submarkets ...... 23 Figure 8 - Altamonte Springs/Casselberry Office Submarket Tracked by Reis ...... 24 Figure 9 - Altamonte Springs/Casselberry Office Inventory and Vacancy Trends ...... 25 Figure 10 - Locations of Office Buildings with Available Space in Zip Code 32701 ...... 26 Figure 11 - SunRail-Accessible Employment Centers ...... 30 Figure 12 - Industry Breakdown of Higher Paying Jobs Located Along Altamonte Drive East of I-4 ...... 34 Figure 13 - Educational Attainment of Workers in Higher Paying Jobs...... 35 Figure 14 - Recent and Forecasted Multifamily Housing Starts ...... 38 Figure 15 - Forecasted Annual Growth in Housing Starts in the Orlando Metro Area ...... 39
List of Tables Table 1 - Metro Area and Seminole County Employment ...... 8 Table 2 - Employment Data for Zip Code 32701 (Proxy for the RBC – Core East) ...... 9 Table 3 - Large Employers in Zip Code 32701 (Proxy for the RBC – Core East) ...... 10 Table 4 - Average Annual Wage by Industry Sector for Seminole County in 2013 ...... 12 Table 5 - Share of Office-Using Jobs in Higher Paying Industry Sectors ...... 13 Table 6 - Trends in Key Seminole County Industry Sectors ...... 15 Table 7 - Store Types Most Desired in Station Areas by Commuters ...... 20 Table 8 - Inventory of Office Buildings with Available Space in Zip Code 32701 ...... 27 Table 9 - Census Block Groups with the Largest Number of Higher Paying Jobs ...... 29 Table 10 - Profiles of SunRail-Accessible Employment Centers ...... 32
MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Executive Summary SunRail commuter rail service will enhance the regional accessibility of the East Altamonte area and create significant opportunities for transit-oriented development (TOD). TOD is an increasingly attractive form of development that capitalizes on proximity to transit stations and a walkable mix of land uses in the station area to create nodes of activity that can include housing, shopping, services, and offices. With the support of a HUD Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grant, Seminole County is developing a plan for the portion of the station area around the Altamonte Springs SunRail station that is within County jurisdiction. The Study Area is generally described as the northeast quadrant of a circle drawn around the station. The East Altamonte area is a historically African American neighborhood that is in need of revitalization and higher paying employment opportunities. Redevelopment activity driven by TOD can be an opportunity to both create new jobs in the Study Area and connect residents to jobs located near other SunRail stations. This study has been prepared to help Seminole County understand the potential for market-driven job creation and job access in East Altamonte. TOD employment strategies can take advantage of the enhanced regional multimodal accessibility provided by SunRail. After initially evolving into a bedroom community following the rise of Orlando and the tourism and services-driven economy of Central Florida, Seminole County has again become a major employment center in its own right with significant nodes of employment along the Interstate 4 corridor in Altamonte Springs, Longwood, Lake Mary, and Sanford, as well as other notable centers in Oviedo and downtown Sanford. Like the rest of Central Florida, Seminole County’s economy has been recovering from the recession of 2007-09 over the past several years. Employment growth in the County was 10 percent over the past decade compared to 17 percent for the entire Orlando metro area, but the average wage and wage growth over the past 10 years was almost identical in both areas. The East Altamonte Study Area is located on the eastern edge and just outside of the City of Altamonte Springs’s Regional Business Center (RBC), which is the City’s primary employment area and a center of commercial and office development. The portion of the RBC east of I-4 saw a slight net decline in total employment since 2002, led by a loss of almost 2,300 jobs in the retail sector. Other sectors, particularly administration and support services, grew over the same time period. The number of jobs paying over $40,000 per year increased by 35 percent, but when compared to the average wage of Seminole County and the metro area as a whole, the average wage in the eastern RBC area is still 13 percent lower. Given the strong presence of the retail and support services industries in the area, it is not surprising that the average wage trails the county and regional averages. JOB CREATION ANALYSIS The most direct way to increase the employment opportunities in the East Altamonte Study Area is to encourage job creation there through the development of new or expanded business facilities. The analysis of job creation potential addresses target industry sectors, the characteristics of the
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Study Area that shape its development potential, and market conditions in the relevant real estate submarket.
• Industry sectors in Seminole County that pay above-average wages and are focused on office-using jobs are professional services, wholesale trade, finance, and healthcare. Office development will be one the primary means of adding employment to the Study Area but not the only potential source of future employment. Modern and smaller scale manufacturing and smaller scale institutional uses can potentially be compatible with TOD because they can be similar in character to office development. • Any strategy for increasing employment opportunities will need to focus on education and training as well as development. Higher paying jobs typically require higher levels of education, and currently there is a mismatch between the educational attainment of Study Area residents and the education requirements of many higher paying jobs. Seminole State College is available with a strong commitment to developing curricula and matriculating students who will be prepared to work in area businesses. • The existing employment base of the Study Area is minimal and will not have much influence on the development of new employment opportunities. Most of the job- generating land uses in or near the Study Area are oriented toward the US 17-92 and Altamonte Drive (SR 436) frontages. There may be some future job opportunities created in the retail sector due to redevelopment along Altamonte Drive or new transit-driven development near the SunRail station, but the number of jobs is not likely to be large and retail does not pay very high wages. • The best sites for office-using development in the Study Area are near the SunRail station, which can capitalize on both auto and transit accessibility as well as the visibility to passing traffic on Altamonte Drive and Ronald Reagan Boulevard. Proximity and connections to the Altamonte Springs Regional Business Center just to the west will also be beneficial. The station area plan adopted by the City of Altamonte Springs for land in its jurisdiction allows both commercial and residential uses, with the exact mix driven by market demand. • The office submarket relevant to the Study Area is a relatively minor one in the regional marketplace and has been underperforming for some time. Vacancy rates are generally high and asking rents are generally low compared to other submarkets. Near term market conditions are not very conducive to new office development. Therefore, the potential for small scale high-tech industrial and institutional businesses should be explored, as well as startups and small skilled trades (construction) businesses, with assistance from the programs at the Seminole State College. Vacant land that is designated as Commercial and well located for access to the SunRail station may serve as locations for an incubator program to increase job access for the residents of the Study Area. JOB ACCESS ANALYSIS Besides providing sites for potential job creation in the East Altamonte Study Area, TOD also can enhance local residents’ accessibility to jobs located elsewhere. The potential for connecting Study Area residents with higher paying employment opportunities is significant, given that several of the largest concentrations of higher paying jobs in Seminole County and the Central Florida region are
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located at other SunRail stops. Improvements in local connectivity associated with TOD can also improve accessibility to local jobs.
• Jobs available at companies located in Lake Mary (and accessible via SunRail and LYNX shuttle bus) may be within reach of Study Area residents through training at Seminole State College and internships at an incubator program located in the East Altamonte neighborhood. • Jobs in Downtown Orlando and at the two major hospital system campuses are readily available today via SunRail. These are some of the largest centers of higher paying jobs in the region. Professional services, finance, government, and healthcare are the predominant industry sectors in these centers. • Airport jobs at OIA would be an important source of potential jobs for Study Area residents if a proposed extension of SunRail to the airport were to be completed, or a LYNX NeighborLink shuttle or express bus service were instituted. • Healthcare jobs associated with Florida Hospital Altamonte are the most prominent higher paying employment opportunities that are potentially locally accessible. Improvements in connectivity and transit service in and around the Study Area may be necessary to make these jobs truly accessible to Study Area residents without using a car. Not all of these jobs will necessarily be medical positions, as hospitals and doctors’ offices also employ a significant number of administrative and other non-medical workers. • SunRail and connectivity improvements can help Study Area residents get to higher paying job locations, but to get the jobs themselves residents will need to have the required education and/or work skills. Access to resources that help people increase their human capital and prepare them for higher paying jobs will be an important element of an employment strategy for East Altamonte. Seminole State College is the key local provider of such resources, and access to its facilities and other technical training providers will be as important as access to jobs. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL STRATEGIES Creating employment opportunities in the East Altamonte Study Area through TOD planning could call for both job creation and job access elements. Selection of the most effective strategic direction should take into account the findings of this analysis as well as County and community goals. A job creation strategy would seek to use TOD to make the Study Area an employment center, thus creating new job opportunities in close proximity to existing Study Area residents. Key factors to consider are:
• Office development is one of the foundations of a job creation strategy in the Study Area, but smaller scale industrial and institutional uses also can be important. • The Study Area currently is not an established employment center. • The local office market is relatively weak, and near term conditions are not very conducive to new office development. The East Altamonte Study Area will likely need a robust and proactive strategy to achieve significant job creation around the SunRail station. Local market conditions for new office
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development are not strong, and multifamily residential is a viable alternative that is growing in popularity among consumers and developers alike. A job access strategy would focus on the ability of SunRail to connect Study Area residents with employment opportunities elsewhere. Key factors in such a strategy include:
• SunRail now provides ready access to three of the leading centers of higher paying jobs in the region. • Access to suburban employment centers will depend on the implementation success and reliability of local transit connections. The FlexBus service now being tested in Altamonte Springs and Casselberry could be a key component. The cost implications of this smartphone-accessed service for low-income Study Area residents should be studied and potential alternatives be developed that allow wider access. • The area of Altamonte Springs west of the Study Area also is a significant employment center, and a major portion of its higher paying jobs are located at or near Florida Hospital Altamonte. • Transit schedules (including SunRail) should be coordinated to align with the working hours and shift changes of major employers in the area. A strategic approach to employment-oriented TOD planning that combines an emphasis on both job creation and job access can address the widest range of opportunities that may emerge in the East Altamonte Study Area. Potential strategies that have been identified are:
• Encourage/assist office-using development and certain smaller scale industrial, construction trades, and institutional uses • Focus economic development efforts to attract companies • Improve Study Area connectivity to enhance job access • Add more housing to the Study Area, especially affordable units • Connect residents with education and training resources, including potential development of such resources locally within walk access. TOD represents a significant opportunity for economic development in the Study Area, but such efforts will need to be balanced against the other needs of the existing residents, including affordable and supportive housing and services for elderly and lower income households. The development of medical and institutional uses within the area can not only create jobs, but can also meet the needs of residents who currently lack access to these services.
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Introduction SunRail commuter rail service will connect communities and key employment centers in Central Florida, offering an alternative to driving that is convenient and attractive for many people. Because rail transit service has permanent stations that are centers of activity and improve regional accessibility, it can also spur real estate development and help create nodes of commercial, residential, and other land uses in a compact walkable form. Being able to live, work, and shop within walking distance of a SunRail station can allow people to live without having to own a car, or to reduce the amount of driving they do (perhaps reducing the need for a second car in some households). The building of mixed-use, walkable activity centers around transit stations is known as transit-oriented development (TOD). The Altamonte Springs SunRail station is a prime candidate for TOD. It is located close to the regional business center in Altamonte Springs that includes substantial retail, office, and health care development, but it still contains vacant and underutilized properties that present opportunities for compatible redevelopment. The station area can become a node of activity that capitalizes on its proximity to existing development but establishes its own market position centered on access to rail transit. TOD in other regions has proven to be an attractive and economically competitive form of development preferred by residents and businesses alike. PURPOSE OF STUDY This study was commissioned by Seminole County with the support of a HUD Sustainable Communities Regional Planning Grant. The purpose is to evaluate the potential for the development of job-generating land uses in the station area as well the potential for the enhanced regional accessibility provided by SunRail to provide local residents with more and better employment opportunities. The Study Area that is the focus of this analysis is the portion of the SunRail station area that falls within the County’s jurisdiction. This area is generally known as East Altamonte, a historically African American neighborhood that has low household incomes and high unemployment compared to the rest of Seminole County. Because TOD has been shown to spur redevelopment activity and attract new business investment, it represents an opportunity to link residents to jobs, either locally or in other employment centers via SunRail. By understanding the emerging transit- driven development potential and regional accessibility of the East Altamonte area and identifying strategies to realize that potential, Seminole County will be better able to enact policies and take specific actions that can increase employment opportunities in the Study Area. STUDY AREA BOUNDARIES The East Altamonte Study Area is generally described as the northeast quadrant of a circular area centered on the Altamonte Springs SunRail station. The station is located at the intersection of Ronald Reagan Boulevard and Altamonte Drive (SR 436), on the west side of the railroad tracks. Ronald Reagan Boulevard generally serves as the western boundary for much of the Study Area, Campello Street is the northern boundary, Lyman and Anchor Roads are the eastern boundary, and Altamonte Drive is the southern boundary. See Figure 1 for a boundary map.
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The primary neighborhoods that make up the Study Area are the unincorporated subdivisions of Granada South, Griffin Park, Groves Terrace, Harmony Homes, Hayman Subdivision, Lake Mobile Shores, Lakeview Subdivision, Lula Blake Subdivision, Magnolia Hills, Orange Estates, Sanlando Springs, Winwood Park, Merritt Park, Frost Addition, and Oak Park. Most of the Study Area is located within the jurisdiction of Seminole County. However, a small portion consisting of the SunRail station property and the frontage parcels moving east along Altamonte Drive up to Jackson Street are in the City of Altamonte Springs. The City has been actively planning for TOD in and around the station area, on both land within its jurisdiction and on unincorporated County land that it anticipates would be annexed when development occurs. Figure 1 – Study Area Map
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STUDY APPROACH Linking residents to employment opportunities is a key objective of the SunRail station area plan. The approach this study takes to analyzing employment opportunities will have two elements: an evaluation of the market potential for job creation in the Study Area itself, and an examination of potential job accessibility via transit for residents (both existing and future) of the Study Area. For both elements the focus is on higher paying job opportunities, which for the purpose of this study are defined as jobs paying $40,000 or more in annual wages. This is roughly the average annual wage of jobs in Seminole County in 2013, according to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) conducted by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.
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Local Area Overview Seminole County evolved into a bedroom community, but did not begin that way. The City of Sanford, which serves as Seminole County’s seat, began as a military base during the Seminole Indian wars, and continued with a major military installation serving as an employer until 1967. During its early history, Sanford was also a major regional shipping center and producer of first citrus, and then celery until the 1940s. During much of Sanford and Seminole County’s earlier years, “Jernigan” (the first name of Orlando) was a tiny backwater. Seminole and Orange Counties began as one county (“Mosquito”), and Sanford continued to thrive as both a river and rail shipping center until agriculture shifted to South Florida, and the construction of Walt Disney World in 1971 shifted the Central Florida economy from agriculture and military employment to tourism and the service industry. Orlando has been the central beneficiary of that shift in the economic base, and Seminole County became a bedroom community. In the last 20 years, however, Seminole County has become a major employment center in its own right with significant nodes of employment along the Interstate 4 corridor in Altamonte Springs, Longwood, Lake Mary, and Sanford, as well as other notable centers in Oviedo and downtown Sanford. Like other places in Florida, Seminole County lost jobs during the recession of 2007-2009 and its economy continues to recover. Employment in the Orlando metro area (comprising Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole Counties) has grown strongly since the recession ended, driven by the tourism sector that anchors the regional economy. Seminole County employment growth has trailed the metro area’s growth. Table 1 - Metro Area and Seminole County Employment 2003-2013 2003-2013 2003-2013 2003 Avg. 2013 Avg. Area Employment Growth Wage Wage Wage Growth Pct. Growth Seminole County 14,636 10.0% $33,039 $40,693 23.2% Orlando Metro 149,617 17.2% $32,712 $40,361 23.4% Area Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity – QCEW
Seminole County has added almost 15,000 new jobs since 2003 even after the disruptions of the financial crisis and recession. The metro area added almost 150,000 new jobs over the same time period. Seminole County achieved a 10 percent growth rate compared to 17 percent for the metro area. The average wage in both areas was very similar and grew in parallel: just over 23 percent in nominal terms from around $33,000 per year to around $40,000 per year in nominal terms. Adjusting for inflation, the average wage in both areas actually decreased slightly, by three percent, meaning that the average worker’s real purchasing power declined slightly over the past decade. This stagnation of wage growth occurred at the national level as well, and highlights the broad need for technological innovation and economic development strategies to improve the competitiveness and performance of the U.S., state, and metro economies. The East Altamonte Study Area is located on the eastern edge and just outside of the City of Altamonte Springs’s Regional Business Center (RBC), which is the City’s primary employment area and a center of commercial and office development. The RBC is situated on both sides of I-4 along
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Altamonte Drive (SR 436), with the core area east of the interstate highway being the dominant activity center that will influence the local real estate market for the Study Area. The east core of the RBC contains major anchors such as the Altamonte Mall and Florida Hospital, as well as numerous office and retail spaces. Using the area encompassed by zip code 32701 as a simplified proxy for the east core of the RBC, data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Local Employment-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program show that the area lost 846 jobs between 2002 and 2011, led by a loss of almost 2,300 jobs in the retail sector. Other sectors, particularly administration and support services, grew over the same time period. Selected Census Bureau data for employment in zip code 32701 are shown in the table below. Table 2 - Employment Data for Zip Code 32701 (Proxy for the RBC – Core East)
2002 Employment 18,832
2011 Employment 17,986
2002-2011 Employment Change -846 or -4.5%
2002-2011 Change in Jobs Paying Over 1,413 or 35% $40,000/year Average Wage in 2011 $32,837 Average Wage vs. County and Metro Area -13% Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program and Zip Code Business Patterns
Employment in the RBC – Core East area declined slightly over the past decade, and that decline primarily occurred in lower paying jobs (likely to be mostly in the retail sector). The number of jobs paying over $40,000 per year actually increased by 35 percent. However, when compared to the average wage of Seminole County and the metro area as a whole, the average wage in the area represented by the 32701 zip code is still 13 percent lower. Small businesses make up most of the employment base in zip code 32701. According to Census Bureau data, there were 1,012 business establishments in the area in 2011 and 53 percent of those had fewer than five employees. Another 18 percent had between five and nine employees, meaning that fully 71 percent of local area companies had fewer than 10 employees. Retail trade, healthcare, and professional services were the predominant industry sectors of area businesses, collectively making up 52 percent of the total establishments. Retail and healthcare are well- represented in the list of largest employers in the RBC – Core East area, but professional services firms in the area tend to be small. There are 23 businesses in the local area that each employ 100 or more workers, including the department store anchors at Altamonte Mall, two grocery stores, Florida Hospital Altamonte, and several other healthcare and support services companies. Given the strong presence of the retail and support services industries in the area, it is not surprising that the average wage trails the county and regional averages.
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Table 3 - Large Employers in Zip Code 32701 (Proxy for the RBC – Core East) Size Industry Sector Industry Class Category Poured concrete foundation and structure 100-249 Construction contractors 100-249 Retail Trade Supermarkets and other grocery stores 100-249 Retail Trade Supermarkets and other grocery stores 100-249 Retail Trade Department stores (except discount) 100-249 Retail Trade Department stores (except discount) 100-249 Retail Trade Department stores (except discount) 100-249 Retail Trade Department stores (except discount) 100-249 Information Wired telecom carriers 100-249 Real Estate Residential property managers 100-249 Prof. & Technical Services Computer systems design services 100-249 Admin. & Support Services Temporary help services All other travel arrangement and 100-249 Admin. & Support Services reservation services 100-249 Healthcare Offices of physicians 100-249 Healthcare Medical laboratories 100-249 Accommodation & Food Services Hotels and motels 100-249 Accommodation & Food Services Full-service restaurants 100-249 Other Services Professional organizations 250-499 Information Wired telecom carriers 250-499 Admin. & Support Services Temporary help services 250-499 Admin. & Support Services Janitorial services 250-499 Healthcare Nursing care facilities 500-999 Admin. & Support Services Janitorial services 1,000+ Healthcare General medical & surgical hospitals
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – 2011 Zip Code Business Patterns
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Job Creation Analysis The most direct way to increase the employment opportunities in the Study Area is to encourage job creation there through the development of new or expanded business facilities. These may include office, industrial, or retail properties, though the focus of the station area plan on higher paying jobs will influence what types of business development should be targeted. The analysis of Study Area job creation potential addresses target industry sectors, the characteristics of the Study Area that shape its development potential, and market conditions in the relevant real estate submarket. TARGET INDUSTRIES A goal of the East Altamonte station area plan is to encourage the creation of or connection to higher paying employment opportunities. To plan effectively it is useful to identify the industry sectors that pay the highest to understand what sort of companies and land use types would be most likely to occur as part of an employment-driven strategy. Because the Study Area is part of the larger Seminole County economy, trends and conditions at this geographic level are relevant to the station area. There are 16 typically recognized non-farm industry sectors in Seminole County that contain significant numbers of jobs (the natural resources, mining, and utilities sectors were excluded because of low job counts). These sectors are sorted in Table 4 by their average annual wage.
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Table 4 - Average Annual Wage by Industry Sector for Seminole County in 2013
Industry Sector Average Wage Professional & Technical Services $76,488 Wholesale Trade $72,888 Information $68,391 Management of Companies $53,503 Finance & Insurance $53,484 Manufacturing $44,674 Educational Services $44,596 Transportation & Warehousing $44,218 Construction $43,098 Health Care & Social Assistance $41,616 County Average, All Sectors $40,693 Other Services $40,102 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing $39,897 Administration & Support Services $30,264 Retail Trade $26,483 Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation $19,056 Accommodation & Food Services $17,296
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity – QCEW
The sectors with an average wage above the overall Seminole County average are the starting group of potential target industries that feature higher paying jobs, although some of the sectors within this group pay significantly higher wages than others. Focusing on this group, the sectors that tend to contain more office-using jobs can be identified. Because the Study Area contains a number of established residential neighborhoods and is located within a built-up suburban area, office- using development is likely to be the most compatible and space-efficient way to increase higher paying employment opportunities near the SunRail station rather than sectors where people tend to work in large manufacturing, warehouse, or institutional facilities that would require buffers and landscaping, such as those found in Seminole County’s Land Development Regulations, to be compatible with residential neighborhoods. In fact, modern and smaller scale manufacturing and smaller scale institutional uses can be similar in character to office development. Major industrial
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employers in Lake Mary include Laser Photonics on Rinehart Road (which looks like an ordinary office building from the outside) and Faro Technologies. A wholesale bakery, such as Smart Baking Company in Sanford, can fit into an office-like setting. Because modern industry often does not produce the noise, smoke, or noxious odors that would be incompatible with TOD mixed use, such uses can be compatible with TOD. Similarly, smaller institutional employers such as senior daytime activity care, physical therapy, and child daycare, can also be compatible and even desirable components of mixed-use TOD. Table 5 - Share of Office-Using Jobs in Higher Paying Industry Sectors Office-Using Industry Sector Jobs Professional & Technical Services 89.1% Wholesale Trade 56.8% Information 69.3% Management of Companies 83.8% Finance & Insurance 96.3% Manufacturing 29.8% Educational Services 56.7% Transportation & Warehousing 25.9% Construction 19.5% Health Care & Social Assistance 48.0%
Source: National Center for Real Estate Research – Who Are Your Future Tenants? Office Employment in the United States 2004-2014
Three of the higher paying sectors are made up predominantly of office-using jobs, each having an office-using share of 80 percent or higher: Finance & Insurance, Professional & Technical Services, and Management of Companies. Information, which includes both traditional publishing/broadcasting companies and software/internet companies, has a 69 percent office- using share. With a 57 percent office-using share, Wholesale Trade includes a significant portion of non-office-using jobs, but its high average wage makes it a compelling sector to target. The office-using share of Health Care & Social Assistance is slightly below 50 percent, but the proximity of Florida Hospital Altamonte to the Study Area and the potential to attract medical office development make this a sector with strategic potential for the SunRail station area. Despite its 57 percent office-using share, the Educational Services sector was not considered a key sector to target when compared with the others in the group because of its jobs’ tendency to locate in large institutional facilities. However, if a new use could be found for the currently closed Rosenwald School building in the Study Area, there may be an opportunity to create jobs, some of which might be education-related. An alternative use might be a business incubator.
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With these six key target sectors identified, the wage and employment trends within each sector can be examined to describe recent and future economic dynamics that could shape the economic development planning approach for the Study Area. Table 6 presents inflation-adjusted wage growth, average wage comparison versus the metro area, recent employment growth, and projected employment growth for each industry sector in Seminole County.
• Professional & Technical Services: This sector pays the highest average wage, but that wage has declined by almost 10 percent in the past 10 years after adjusting for inflation. The average wage is slightly below the average for the entire Orlando metro area. Employment growth has been strong and is projected to continue. • Wholesale Trade: This sector’s average wage rivals that of professional services and has increased by 17 percent over the past decade. The average wage also is significantly higher than the average for the metro area. Employment growth has been limited but is projected to accelerate somewhat in the future. • Information: The inflation-adjusted average wage growth was slightly positive over the past 10 years, and the average wage exceeds the metro average by 11 percent. But this sector lost 42 percent of its jobs over the past 10 years, although a modest increase is projected for the next eight years. • Management of Companies: Inflation-adjusted wage growth was flat and the average wage is 15 percent below the metro average. This sector added almost 1,600 jobs over the past decade but because it is relatively small in size the percentage growth was very high. Projected future employment growth is minimal. • Finance & Insurance: The inflation-adjusted wage declined over the past 10 years and is currently 15 percent below the metro average. Employment growth was strong over the past decade but is projected to be much more modest over the next eight years. • Health Care & Social Assistance: The average wage in this sector is close to the overall county average, and has declined slightly over the past decade after adjusting for inflation. The average wage is 12 percent below the metro average. This sector added almost 4,300 jobs over the past 10 years, and is projected to add a similar amount over the next eight years. As a group (with a few exceptions), these key industry sectors in Seminole County struggled to maintain positive real wage growth in the face of the Great Recession and pay noticeably lower than the metro area average. But nearly all sustained positive employment growth even with the economic disruptions of recent years and are projected to add jobs in the near term future. The largest job growth is projected for the professional services and healthcare sectors, and wholesale trade also is forecast for healthy job growth and has a particularly high average wage compared to most of the other sectors and the equivalent average wage for the sector at the metro area level.
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MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Table 6 - Trends in Key Seminole County Industry Sectors
2003-2013 2013 2013-2021 2013-2021 2013 Inflation- 2003-2013 2003-2013 Average Projected Projected Industry Sector Average Adjusted Employment Employment Wage vs. Employment Employment Wage Wage Change Pct. Growth Metro Area Change Pct. Growth Growth
Professional & $76,488 -9.8% -4.5% 3,206 42.5% 2,923 24.6% Technical Services
Wholesale Trade $72,888 16.9% 23.0% 255 3.3% 1,022 11.5%
Information $68,391 3.3% 11.1% -2,728 -41.5% 534 10.6%
Management of $53,503 0.3% -14.8% 1,579 195.7% 118 5.8% Companies
Finance & Insurance $53,484 -14.1% -14.5% 3,382 45.0% 834 7.1%
Health Care & Social $41,616 -2.2% -11.7% 4,264 32.4% 4,304 24.4% Assistance
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity – QCEW and Employment Projections, Renaissance Planning Group
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EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT Besides identifying target industries, a job creation strategy also should recognize the importance of education and training in helping people obtain higher paying employment. The fact that higher educational attainment usually leads to higher pay applies across industry sectors and highlights an important issue for East Altamonte: there is an education/skills mismatch with the goal of linking Study Area residents to new higher paying jobs. Many residents do not currently have the education level needed to obtain many of these jobs. Figure 2 - Educational Attainment of Study Area Residents Age 25+
15% 23% Less than high school
High school or equivalent, no college 25% Some college or Associate degree Bachelor's degree or advanced degree 36%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Almost one in four adult Study Area residents did not finish high school, and only 15 percent have a four-year or advanced degree. This low level of educational attainment has led to low household incomes in the Study Area and challenges in affording decent housing. The Seminole County economy is projected to generate over 58,000 job openings from 2013-2021, both from employment growth and replacement needs, and 60 percent of those job openings will typically require post-secondary education or a higher level degree. Only one in four of the job openings created will require an Associate degree or higher, but the economic value of higher education is clearly seen in the average wages in Seminole County by the education level required for different occupations.
16 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 3 - Figure 3: Seminole County Job Openings and Wages by Education Level
40% $50
35% $45 $40 30% $35 25% $30 20% $25
15% $20 $15 10% Avg. Hourly Wage $10 Pct. of New Job Openings Job New of Pct. 5% $5 0% $0
Share of Job Openings, 2013-2021 Avg. Hourly Wage in 2013
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity
As one moves to the next higher education level, the average Seminole County hourly wage increases by about 30 percent with each upward movement. The exception to this trend line is the change from the Postsecondary Adult Vocational level to Associate Degree, which shows an even greater increase of 47 percent in average wage. Education and training pays off in the job market, and resources for accessing such human capital development should play a key part of an employment strategy for East Altamonte. STUDY AREA CHARACTERISTICS Market-driven job creation in East Altamonte will be influenced by characteristics of the Study Area that affect the development of its employment base and the availability of potential sites for job- generating land uses. The employment base of the Study Area can be profiled using a dataset developed by the U.S. Census Bureau using state-level unemployment insurance program data. Data are available at the Census block group level, which is the smallest level of geography available. Given the size and boundaries of the Study Area, it was necessary to assemble a “profile area” from available Census block groups that when combined best correspond with the Study Area boundaries. In this case three block groups were used as a proxy for the Study Area to obtain and analyze employment data. The boundaries of these block groups and their relation to the Study Area boundaries are shown in Figure 1.
17 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
The current composition of the Study Area employment base shows that the predominant industry sectors are information/business services, retail, and manufacturing. Over the past nine years the Study Area has lost 881 jobs, going from 3,725 in 2002 to 2,844 in 2011. Most of those job losses were in the construction, finance, administrative services, and food services sectors. Over the same time period, the professional services and healthcare sectors experienced significant growth. Figure 4 - Figure 4: Study Area Employment by Industry Sector
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate & Rental and Leasing
Professional & Technical Services
Management of Companies
Administration & Support Services
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Number of Jobs
2002 2011
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program
But this profile of the Study Area’s employment base is somewhat deceptive due to the need to use Census block groups to compile the data. Most of the jobs are located outside of the Study Area proper – they are mostly clustered along the US 17-92 frontage and in the industrial areas accessed from Ronald Reagan Boulevard and North Street. The employment base that is actually located within the East Altamonte Study Area appears to be very limited. It is primarily made up of the commercial businesses located along the Altamonte Drive (SR 436) frontage. There are also some industrial and warehouse-type land uses in the far northeast corner of the Study Area that would be the locations of some jobs. Generally speaking, the Study Area is largely a residential
18 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
area composed mainly of single-family detached homes, small apartment buildings, and some community/institutional uses. Commercial development will usually seek out locations with strong access and visibility from major transportation routes. Proximity to the SunRail station also will be a draw for some businesses seeking a transit-oriented location. Given these factors and the established residential character of most of the Study Area, the most promising potential sites for employment-generating development will be found in the immediate vicinity of the SunRail station, with exposure to traffic passing by on Altamonte Drive and/or Ronald Reagan Boulevard. Within a quarter-mile radius of the station, especially on the east side of the railroad tracks, there is a significant number of vacant parcels that could be redeveloped. This is the part of the Study Area with the greatest multimodal accessibility and visibility, and concentrating commercial development here would help maintain the character of existing residential neighborhoods located elsewhere in the Study Area. It should be noted that this area, like most of the Study Area, is currently designated for medium density residential in the Seminole County Comprehensive Plan. A land use change or overlay zone would be necessary to permit employment-generating development. The City of Altamonte Springs has adopted a plan for the land in its jurisdiction near the SunRail station to be developed as higher density mixed-use buildings in a walkable environment. The plan is flexible as far as land use, so both commercial and residential uses are envisioned, with the exact mix and configuration driven by market demand. While office development has already been identified as one of the key means of creating jobs in the Study Area because of the land use compatibility with adjacent uses and the higher average wages of office-using industry sectors, the mixed-use characteristics of typical TOD suggest that retail development also could be a source of new jobs. New retail stores would likely be a component of development close to the SunRail station, to capitalize on transit rider foot traffic as well as the high visibility to traffic on Altamonte Drive. A detailed retail market study would be needed to identify gaps in the local retail market and potential demand, but a survey of rail commuters that identified the most desired store types in station areas indicates what sorts of retailers might locate near the SunRail station.
19 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Table 7 - Store Types Most Desired in Station Areas by Commuters
Rank Store Type Rank Store Type 1 Dry Cleaners 11 Convenience Store 2 Restaurant 12 Video Rental 3 ATM 13 Cards/Gift Shop 4 Grocery 14 Auto-Repair Shop 5 Coffee Stand 15 Hardware Store 6 Newsstand 16 Beauty/Barber Shop 7 Bank 17 Bakery/Donut Shop 8 Gas Station 18 Day-Care Center 9 Fast-Food Restaurant 19 Florist 10 Drug Store 20 Book Store
Source: Metra (Northeast Illinois Commuter Rail Agency) – Local Benefits of Commuter Rail Stations for Communities and Businesses
Many of these store types are already found along Altamonte Drive and in the Regional Business Center of Altamonte Springs just to the west of the Study Area. There is a substantial amount of retail development within a short drive, meaning that retail development in the station area is likely to be small scale and driven by pedestrian traffic within the station area. A leakage analysis obtained from ESRI for five, 10, and 15-minute drive time areas from the SunRail station indicates that the retail demand generated by the population living in those areas is more than being covered by the sales being achieved by the retail establishments located in those areas. In fact, the local retailers are achieving sales volumes higher than the demand potential of the local population, meaning that the stores are attracting shoppers from beyond a 15-minute drive. This is common for a highly accessible location with a major mall and multiple big box stores, which describes the Altamonte Springs Regional Business Center. Retail development in the Study Area is likely to small in scale and oriented toward SunRail riders. If infill growth in the local area is strong there also could be demand for redevelopment of parcels along the Altamonte Drive frontage for more intense retail uses than are currently found there. But generally speaking, retail is not likely to be a major source of higher paying employment in the East Altamonte Study Area. SUBMARKET PROFILE The East Altamonte Study Area is part of the regional market for office space, and its development potential will be influenced by conditions in the overall market and more particularly the conditions and relative performance of its relevant submarket. Submarkets are smaller parts of the region defined by real estate brokers and developers in order to track and evaluate local market conditions. Downtown Orlando is a submarket, and there are several submarkets identified in the
20 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
suburban areas of Orange and Seminole Counties, most corresponding with major employment centers. The Orlando-area office market is generally on an upswing, with conditions starting to trend positive as they recover from the downturn of recent years. The global brokerage firm JLL (formerly Jones Lang LaSalle) in its first quarter 2014 market report notes that net absorption of office space is positive and the total vacancy rate is below the five-year moving average. JLL expects conditions to improve in the remainder of 2014, driven by strong growth in the job market, new infrastructure developments such as SunRail, and targeted investments being made in the region’s life sciences and modeling, simulation, and training industries. The firm notes: “In the near-term, landlords in newer, more modern Class A buildings located in the urban core and along the new passenger train route will have the upper hand in Orlando’s office market, as these are the locations slated to attract a significant amount of future investment and tenant demand.”1 JLL defines six suburban submarkets, including an Altamonte submarket that is the relevant one for the Study Area. This submarket has the second-smallest inventory of office space of the group, and by far the smallest amount of Class A space (the newest and highest quality buildings and locations that are most desirable for corporate tenants). Figure 5 - Office Space Inventory of Suburban Submarkets
8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Square Feet 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Altamonte Lake Mary Maitland University Southwest 436 Center Area Corridor/ Airport
Class A Class B
Source: JLL – 1Q2014 Orlando office statistics
In the Orlando suburbs, the Lake Mary, Maitland Center, and Southwest submarkets are clearly the leading areas for office development, with the University Area in a slightly lower tier. The Altamonte and 436 Corridor/Airport submarkets are substantially smaller than the other submarkets, especially in terms of the amount of Class A space in the existing inventory. This dynamic is also visible in the current vacancy rates of these submarkets.
1 JLL – Orlando Office Insight Q1 2014
21 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 6 - Office Space Vacancy in Suburban Submarkets
30%
25%
20%
15%
Vacancy Rate 10%
5%
0% Altamonte Lake Mary Maitland University Southwest 436 Center Area Corridor/ Airport
Class A Class B Total
Source: JLL – 1Q2014 Orlando office statistics
While Altamonte’s Class A vacancy rate is comparable to those in the other submarkets, the small amount of such space in Altamonte means that this will not influence overall submarket conditions very much. Meanwhile, the Class B vacancy rate is substantially higher than all of the other submarkets, particularly the rates in Lake Mary and the University Area. The vacancy profile in the 436 Corridor/Airport submarket is similar to Altamonte’s, but still several percentage points lower in every category. And in the Altamonte submarket even though Class A space has a much lower vacancy rate than Class B space, the average rent being achieved is not appreciably higher than lower quality space.
22 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 7 - Office Space Rents in Suburban Submarkets
$30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
Avg. Avg. ASking Rent PSF $5.00
$0.00 Altamonte Lake Mary Maitland University Southwest 436 Center Area Corridor/ Airport
Class A Class B Total
Source: JLL – 1Q2014 Orlando office statistics
The Altamonte office submarket is relatively small and not one of the major suburban submarkets of the Orlando region. With a high vacancy rate and low asking rents, even for Class A space, there will not be much market-driven demand for new office development in the area in the near term. While the start of SunRail service could be a boost to the Altamonte submarket, there are stations that serve some of the other submarkets that will also benefit from the enhanced regional accessibility. JLL notes that “Lake Mary, Maitland, the CBD and the Southwest submarkets are all poised to see an increase in tenant demand related to the new train system.” The office submarket relevant to the East Altamonte Study Area appears to be struggling to compete in the current marketplace. Office market information from another source offers a view of the long term trend in the Altamonte Springs area. Reis, a national provider of real estate data, tracks different submarket boundaries than JLL but defines what it calls the Altamonte Springs/Casselberry submarket (see Figure 8 for a boundary map). The Reis data start in 1995 and include five forecast years going out to 2018. Similar to the JLL data, the profile is of a relatively minor submarket struggling to compete:
• Only 66,000 square feet of new space has been completed since 2003, and none since 2007 • 78 percent of the office inventory was built before 1990, and 21 percent before 1980 • A five-year forecasted average annual rent growth of 2.4 percent, compared to 3.1 percent for the overall Orlando region • A five-year forecasted average annual vacancy rate of 21.5 percent, compared to 16.0 percent for the overall Orlando region • Out of nine submarkets in the region tracked by Reis, a rank of 8th in forecasted rent growth and 9th in forecasted vacancy rate
23 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 8 - Altamonte Springs/Casselberry Office Submarket Tracked by Reis
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Figure 9 - Altamonte Springs/Casselberry Office Inventory and Vacancy Trends
2,500,000 30.0
25.0 2,000,000
20.0 1,500,000
15.0
1,000,000 Vacancy % Office Sq. Ft. 10.0
500,000 5.0
0 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 f 2015 f 2016 f 2017 f 2018 f
Inventory (SF) Vacancy Rate
Source: Reis, Inc.
Nine years after the end of the recession in 2009, Reis forecasts that the Altamonte Springs/Casselberry office submarket will still have a vacancy rate of nearly 20 percent, which is a very elevated level. According to the forecast, at that point there will have been no new significant office development for 11 years. Again, such conditions are not very conducive to market-driven office development activity. In order to confirm the findings of the submarket-level data analysis, an inventory of office buildings with available space for lease was conducted using LoopNet, an online commercial real estate listing service. The inventory focused on buildings located in zip code 32701, which as noted previously serves as a proxy for the Altamonte Springs Regional Business Center – Core East. A total of 23 buildings containing over 875,000 square feet of office space are included in the inventory, which represents 73 percent of the JLL submarket’s inventory and 44 percent of the Reis submarket’s inventory. The findings generally parallel the submarket-level data. The average asking rent per square foot of the buildings in 32701 is $15.40, while the JLL submarket reported $16.36 and the Reis submarket reported $17.17. The 32701 total vacancy rate is 18.5 percent, while it is 26.1 percent in the JLL submarket and 23.6 percent in the Reis submarket. The locations of the buildings in the LoopNet inventory are shown in Figure 10 and the building data are presented in the table that follows.
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MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 10 - Locations of Office Buildings with Available Space in Zip Code 32701
26 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Table 8 - Inventory of Office Buildings with Available Space in Zip Code 32701 Asking Available Name Address Total SF Vacancy Rent SF PSF Altamonte Forum 745 Orienta Ave 10,292 59,256 17.4% $14.40 Altamonte Lakeside Park 307 Cranes Roost Blvd 4,225 91,687 4.6% $17.00 Altamonte Medical Center II 616 E. Altamonte Dr 5,916 16,454 36.0% $10.90 Altamonte Oaks Plaza 460 E Altamonte Dr 5,824 32,990 17.7% $17.38 Altamonte Town Center I 155 Cranes Roost Blvd 2,141 29,976 7.1% $14.01 Altamonte Town Center I 275 E. Altamonte Dr 3,065 12,895 18.1% $17.00 Altamonte Town Center II 175 E. Altamonte Dr 6,326 26,941 23.5% $17.00 CenterPointe Office Park 370 CenterPointe Circle 10,405 126,293 8.2% $15.56 CenterPointe One 240 Central Parkway 20,875 104,000 20.1% $19.00 CenterPointe Two 220 Central Parkway 11,776 113,000 10.4% $19.35 North Lake I 774 S Northlake Blvd 3,905 10,359 37.7% $13.50 North Lake I 750 S Northlake Blvd 4,010 14,146 28.3% $13.50 North Lake II 600 S. Northlake Blvd 10,226 25,237 40.5% $15.00 North Lake II 650 S. North Lake Blvd 7,354 25,243 29.1% $15.00 North Lake IV 528 S. Northlake Blvd 7,173 30,995 23.1% $13.50 North Lake IV 598 S. Northlake Blvd 19,944 26,986 73.9% $13.50 North Lake V 402 S. Northlake Blvd 6,561 22,140 29.6% $13.50 North Lake VI 380 S. Northlake Blvd 9,526 27,942 34.1% $13.50 North Lake VII 270 S. Northlake Blvd 2,334 15,055 15.5% $15.00 Robin Springs Center 124 Robin Rd 1,584 13,315 11.9% $11.00 SunTrust Building 498 Palm Springs Dr 6,251 42,668 14.7% $16.00 Unnamed 1088 E. Altamonte Dr 1,200 6,632 18.1% $10.00 Unnamed 657 Maitland Ave 1,118 1,518 73.6% $14.00 TOTALS/AVERAGES 162,031 875,728 18.5% $15.40
Source: LoopNet.com, Renaissance Planning Group
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The office buildings inventoried in the RBC – Core East are mostly clustered near I-4 and they tend to be fairly small: the median building size is 26,941 square feet. Only three buildings are larger than 100,000 square feet; notably, these three buildings are clustered near each other off of East Central Parkway near I-4. Two of the three have among the lowest vacancy rates of the sample set, and the CentrePointe One and Two buildings have the highest asking rents of the sample. SUMMARY OF JOB CREATION FINDINGS Job creation is one element of a strategy to increase employment opportunities in the East Altamonte Study Area. Based on the analysis presented above there are several key factors that will influence the potential for creating higher paying jobs in the Study Area:
• Industry sectors in Seminole County that pay above-average wages and are focused on office-using jobs are professional services, wholesale trade, finance, and healthcare. Office development will be one of the primary means of adding employment to the Study Area because it is compatible with TOD and the adjacent established residential neighborhoods, although the County’s Land Development Code buffering standards can ensure compatibility between the existing residential uses and smaller scale industrial and institutional uses. • Any strategy for increasing employment opportunities will need to focus on education and training as well as development. Higher paying jobs typically require higher levels of education, and currently there is a mismatch between the educational attainment of Study Area residents and the education requirements of many higher paying office-using jobs. The availability of Seminole State College with its focuses on readying students for jobs and supporting the development of small business can assist. • The existing employment base of the Study Area is minimal and will not have much influence on the development of new employment opportunities. Most of the job- generating land uses in or near the Study Area are oriented toward the US 17-92 and Altamonte Drive frontages. There may be some future job opportunities created in the retail sector due to redevelopment along Altamonte Drive or new transit-driven development near the SunRail station, but the number of jobs is not likely to be large and retail does not pay very high wages. • The best sites for office development in the Study Area are near the SunRail station, which can capitalize on both auto and transit accessibility as well as the visibility to passing traffic on Altamonte Drive and Ronald Reagan Boulevard. Proximity and connections to the Altamonte Springs Regional Business Center just to the west will also be beneficial. The station area plan adopted by the City of Altamonte Springs for land in its jurisdiction allows both commercial and residential uses, with the exact mix driven by market demand. • The office submarket relevant to the Study Area is a relatively minor one in the regional marketplace and has been underperforming for some time. Vacancy rates are generally high and asking rents are generally low compared to other submarkets. Near term market conditions are not very conducive to new office development.
28 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Job Access Analysis Besides providing sites for potential job creation in the East Altamonte Study Area, TOD also can enhance local residents’ accessibility to jobs located elsewhere. The potential for connecting Study Area residents with higher paying employment opportunities is significant, given that several of the largest concentrations of higher paying jobs in the Central Florida region are located at other SunRail stops. TOD-related improvements in housing options, connectivity, walkability, and local transit service in and around the Study Area also can also enhance accessibility to nearby jobs. TOD can enable residents to access jobs in these and other locations without having to use a car, which reduces household transportation costs and frees up financial resources for other important needs such as housing, education, and/or healthcare. Combine these savings with convenient transit accessibility to higher paying jobs, and helping residents connect to jobs located outside of the Study Area becomes a strategy for improving the economic position of local residents that complements job creation efforts in the Study Area itself, and may have greater market potential. SUNRAIL JOB ACCESSIBILITY Of the 15 Census block groups in the Orlando metro area with the highest number of higher paying jobs (earning more than $40,000 per year), nine of them are readily accessible or potentially accessible via SunRail. Table 9 - Census Block Groups with the Largest Number of Higher Paying Jobs Higher Paying Tract/Block Group Description SunRail Access? Jobs Tract 189, BG 5 18,578 Downtown Orlando Yes Tract 171.03, BG 1 14,190 Walt Disney World No Lockheed, South Park Tract 170.01, BG 2 11,341 No industrial area Shuttle from Maitland Tract 152.01, BG 1 9,097 Maitland Center (east half) station Orlando Health, Downtown Tract 185, BG 3 8,915 Yes South Central Florida Research Tract 165.08, BG 1 8,712 No Park Tract 128, BG 5 7,110 Florida Hospital Yes Shuttle from Sand Lake Tract 169.02, BG 1 7,030 Central Park industrial area station Tract 168.02, BG 1 5,889 OIA, Medical City Potential OIA extension Shuttle from Lake Mary Tract 207.04, BG 2 4,687 Heathrow station Tract 135.07, BG 1 4,403 Lee Vista No
29 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Higher Paying Tract/Block Group Description SunRail Access? Jobs Shuttle from Maitland Tract 152.01, BG 2 4,377 Maitland Center (west half) station Tract 148.12, BG 1 3,915 Universal Studios No Sanford industrial area Shuttle from Sanford Tract 206, BG 2 3,379 near I-4 station Tavares – downtown and Tract 308.03, BG 4 3,327 No hospital area Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program, Renaissance Planning Group
By consolidating certain block groups such as those in Maitland Center and adding relevant adjacent ones to better encompass an employment center such as one in Lake Mary, a set of eight SunRail-accessible employment centers is assembled that is also the set of top locations in the region for higher paying jobs. Collectively these eight employment centers contain over 71,000 higher paying jobs. Figure 11 - SunRail-Accessible Employment Centers
Downtown Orlando
Maitland Center
Orlando Health
Florida Hospital
Central Park Industrial
OIA
Heathrow/Lake Mary
Sanford Industrial
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Number of Higher Paying Jobs
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program, Renaissance Planning Group
The employment centers that are readily accessible via SunRail are those where most of the jobs are located within walking distance of the station. These include Downtown Orlando, Orlando Health, and Florida Hospital. Centers that are potentially accessible will need regular bus service and/or a dedicated shuttle system to link the station to where most of the jobs are located. These include Maitland Center, Central Park Industrial, Heathrow/Lake Mary, and Sanford Industrial. An extension of SunRail to Orlando International Airport (OIA) is currently being studied, and would provide access to jobs at the airport.
30 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Employment data from the Census Bureau’s LEHD program provide useful detail about the industry composition of the higher paying job base in each employment center. This information, which is summarized in the table on the following page, allows for comparison with the target industry sectors discussed earlier in this report. The higher paying jobs in most of the employment centers are predominantly in the professional services, financial, and healthcare industries. This corresponds with the industry sectors previously identified as being the best targets for a job creation strategy in East Altamonte. Several other observations can be made about the higher paying job composition of these SunRail-accessible employment centers:
• Downtown Orlando is by far the largest center, driven in part by the large government presence there (local, state, and federal) • As would be expected, the employment bases at the two hospital centers are predominantly made up of health care jobs • The suburban and industrial employment centers have a more diversified job base, with the top industry sectors making up smaller percentages of the total higher paying jobs Healthcare, government, and professional services jobs at the two hospitals and in Downtown Orlando are readily accessible to SunRail riders, and represent immediate opportunities for existing and future Study Area residents to access higher paying jobs. Higher paying financial and professional services jobs located in major suburban business and industrial parks are also potentially accessible, but will require effective bus/shuttle connections from the closest SunRail stations. The proposed future station at OIA also represents a significant opportunity to connect residents with a cluster of higher paying jobs.
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MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Table 10 - Profiles of SunRail-Accessible Employment Centers No. of Higher- Top Sector(s) Employment Center SunRail Station(s) Top Industry Sector(s) Paying Jobs Share of Jobs LYNX Central Station, Public Administration, Professional Downtown Orlando 16,938 78.2% Church St Services, Finance & Insurance Finance & Insurance, Professional Maitland Center Maitland 12,279 58.3% Services, Health Care Health Care, Management of Orlando Health Orlando Health 7,709 82.6% Companies Wholesale Trade, Information, Central Park Industrial Sand Lake Rd 6,519 59.0% Management of Companies Finance & Insurance, Wholesale Heathrow/ Lake Mary Lake Mary 6,446 62.1% Trade, Admin & Support Services Florida Hospital Florida Hospital 6,210 Health Care 96.6% OIA Potential future station 5,572 Transportation, Public Administration 74.5% Construction, Wholesale Trade, Sanford Industrial Sanford 3,041 53.9% Retail Trade Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program, Renaissance Planning Group
32 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
LOCAL JOB ACCESSIBILITY The portion of the City of Altamonte Springs along Altamonte Drive between I-4 and the East Altamonte Study Area is a significant employment center. Over 16,000 jobs of all wage levels are found there. An examination of employment data for the block groups on both sides of Altamonte Drive reveals that this area can be segmented into several generalized subareas with particular employment profiles:
• The area close to I-4 and surrounding the Altamonte Mall, where the retail, administrative and support services, and food services sectors predominate. These three industry sectors make up 69 percent of the employment base in this subarea. This subarea contains over 9,000 jobs, or 58 percent of the total jobs in the area between I-4 and the Study Area. • The area immediately surrounding Florida Hospital Altamonte, where 77 percent of the jobs are in the healthcare industry sector, and another 12 percent are administrative and support services jobs. Over 3,100 jobs are found here. • A small area adjacent to the East Altamonte Study Area anchored by the City of Altamonte Springs city hall. Public administration jobs make up 47 percent of the total employment base here. Just over 1,000 jobs are found here. • The south side of Altamonte Drive from the hospital to the railroad tracks has been designated by the City of Altamonte Springs as its Orienta Sub-District, and the portion across from the East Altamonte Study Area is part of what the City is calling the EDO (economic development opportunity) Sub-District. The leading industry sectors in this subarea are healthcare and information, with 29 percent and 22 percent of the total jobs, respectively. Just over 2,600 jobs are found here. With the retail stores and restaurants in and around Altamonte Mall making up a substantial portion of the employment base here, the share of jobs that pay above $40,000 per year is relatively low. Only 31 percent of the total jobs are classified as higher paying jobs. Just over 35 percent of these higher paying jobs are in the healthcare sector.
33 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 12 - Industry Breakdown of Higher Paying Jobs Located Along Altamonte Drive East of I-4
Health Care & Social Assistance Information 31.5% 35.3% Administration & Support Services Wholesale Trade
7.1% Retail Trade 10.4% 7.4% 15 other industry sectors 8.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program
Based on the industry composition of higher paying jobs in closest employment center, the greatest opportunity for locally accessible jobs is currently in the healthcare sector. Florida Hospital Altamonte is an important employment anchor, and it and the medical offices and support services that are clustered around it should be well-connected to East Altamonte to increase local employment opportunities. A TOD employment strategy focused on office development can help diversify the locally accessible higher paying employment opportunities. EDUCATION AND EMPLOYMENT As noted previously in this report, education plays a key role in a person’s ability to obtain a higher paying job. This fact is illustrated by the educational attainment of the workers in higher paying jobs in the employment centers discussed in this section. In all of the SunRail-accessible employment centers as well as the area in Altamonte Springs east of I-4, the majority of higher paying jobs are held by workers with post-secondary education. A significant share of the jobs are held by workers with a college or advanced degree. In all but one of the centers, less than 10 percent of the higher paying jobs are held by workers with less than a high school education.
34 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Figure 13 - Educational Attainment of Workers in Higher Paying Jobs, by Employment Center
Downtown Orlando 6% 18% 32% 45%
Maitland Center 5% 15% 30% 50%
Orlando Health 6% 17% 37% 39%
Florida Hospital 5% 17% 36% 43%
Central Park Industrial 8% 21% 33% 39%
OIA 8% 31% 34% 27%
Heathrow/Lake Mary 5% 16% 30% 49%
Sanford Industrial 11% 26% 35% 29%
Altamonte Springs E of I-4 6% 17% 30% 38%
Less than high school High school or equivalent, no college Some college or Associate degree Bachelor's degree or advanced degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau – LEHD Program, Renaissance Planning Group
When reviewing the chart above, it should be remembered that 23 percent of existing Study Area residents did not finish high school, 36 percent have a high school equivalent education but no college, 25 percent have some college or an Associate degree, and 15 percent have a Bachelor’s or advanced degree. SunRail can provide transportation access to higher paying jobs for residents of East Altamonte, but they will likely also need training and education resources to obtain many of those jobs. The resources of Seminole State College can be of assistance. SUMMARY OF JOB ACCESS FINDINGS SunRail service provides convenient transit access to a number of major employment centers in the Orlando region. East Altamonte Study Area residents can take advantage of this accessibility to seek out higher paying jobs and also save on the costs of driving. Improvements in local connectivity associated with TOD can also improve accessibility to local jobs. The analysis presented above highlights several key findings that will influence a job accessibility strategy:
35 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
• Jobs in Downtown Orlando and at the two major hospital system campuses are readily available today via SunRail. These are some of the largest centers of higher paying jobs in the region. Professional services, finance, government, and healthcare are the predominant industry sectors in these centers. • Several major suburban employment centers are potentially accessible via SunRail, but would require effective bus or shuttle service to connect the station with the employment locations. Transfers between bus and rail raise the issue of service reliability, a significant issue for workers who must arrive at a designated time to begin their job shift. Even if connecting services are successfully implemented, this represents an additional trip and travel time that could make less practical and/or desirable for workers when compared to jobs within walking distance of a SunRail station or other job locations that workers would drive to. Until connecting services are available, these employment centers will not be very accessible to Study Area residents, but they represent important potential opportunities. • Airport jobs at OIA would be an important source of potential jobs for Study Area residents if a proposed extension of SunRail to the airport were to be completed. • Healthcare jobs associated with Florida Hospital Altamonte are the most prominent higher paying employment opportunities that are potentially locally accessible. Improvements in connectivity and transit service in and around the Study Area may be necessary to make these jobs truly accessible to Study Area residents without using a car. Not all of these jobs will necessarily be medical positions, as hospitals and doctors’ offices also employ a significant number of administrative and other non-medical workers. • SunRail and connectivity improvements can help Study Area residents get to higher paying job locations, but to get the jobs themselves residents will need to have the required education and/or work skills. Access to resources that help people increase their human capital and prepare them for higher paying jobs will be an important element of an employment strategy for East Altamonte.
36 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
Conclusions and Potential Strategies Creating employment opportunities in the East Altamonte Study Area through TOD planning could call for both job creation and job access elements. An emphasis of one element over the other, or a balance between the two, will be driven by the intersection of the factors described in this report with other considerations being addressed in the station area planning process. Selection of the most effective strategic direction should take into account the findings of this analysis as well as County and community goals. A job creation strategy would seek to use TOD to make the Study Area an employment center, thus creating new employment opportunities in close proximity to existing Study Area residents. There are several key factors that should be considered in relation to this strategy:
• Office development is one of the foundations of a job creation strategy in the Study Area. o Office is the employment-generating land use that would be most compatible with the adjacent residential neighborhoods and the principles of TOD, although small scale high tech industrial and institutional employers can also be compatible. o Office uses are also more likely to generate higher paying jobs than other commercial or industrial land uses in this location. o The Study Area is generally suitable for office development, with convenient regional access via highways and SunRail, and visibility from major transportation routes. o A change in the future land use designation of the Study Area would be needed to accommodate office development, as much of the area is currently designated for medium density residential. • The Study Area currently is not an established employment center. o It is located on the fringe of one, the Altamonte Springs Regional Business Center, and has an opportunity to become an expanded part of that center and one of its key transportation assets thanks to SunRail. o TOD planning for the Study Area should seek to link it both physically and perceptually to the economic activity taking place in the Regional Business Center. • The local office market is relatively weak, and near term conditions are not very conducive to new development. o It is fairly small, achieves below-average rents, and has a higher vacancy rate when compared to the more prominent office submarkets in the Orlando region. There has been minimal new development over the past decade, and none is forecasted for the next five years. o SunRail could potentially spur some new office development, but there are stations closer to more-prominent office submarkets and TOD opportunities are also likely to attract other types of development. Given these factors, the central challenge to a job creation strategy in East Altamonte is the possibility that another type of development, namely multifamily residential, could have greater near term market potential in the Study Area and therefore claim all or most of the development opportunities, leaving little or no room for job-generating development. This possibility is
37 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
demonstrated in the planning for the station area land that is in the jurisdiction of the City of Altamonte Springs. The City’s vision plan for the land it governs (or annexes) encourages higher density mixed-use development, but the land use above the ground floor in non-residential buildings is not specified – it could be office or residential. If the TOD vision for the Study Area is driven primarily by form rather than land use, market factors might produce an outcome that is not very employment-oriented. Nationally, multifamily residential development activity and market conditions have been strong over the past several years due to a larger number of households choosing to rent rather than buy in the aftermath of the Great Recession, a large population cohort of young adults known as Millennials entering the housing market, and an increasing preference for living in urban centers and transit-oriented suburban centers. The Orlando regional market has paralleled these trends with the global real estate brokerage CBRE noting in its 2014 annual multifamily market report that “fundamentals in Orlando continued to strengthen during 2013 and are on track to outpace rent growth and occupancy averages nationally over the next five years,” and that “new development in Orlando continues to accelerate as the market improves, but still remains well below long-term historical levels.”2 Recent multifamily housing starts figures and near term forecasts illustrate the post-recession depths of regional market activity and how it has grown recently. Figure 14 - Recent and Forecasted Multifamily Housing Starts in the Orlando Metro Area
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000 Dwelling Units
2,000
1,000
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness – March 2014 forecasts
The recent substantial growth in multifamily residential development is most likely driven primarily by recovery from the recession, but many demographic and real estate analysts are predicting that a larger share of future development will take place in urban settings, be higher density, and be more likely to be located near transit than in the past. The Millennial generation is as large as the Baby Boom generation that has had an outsized influence on real estate trends, and research and
2 CBRE – Capital Markets Multi-Housing, 2014 Annual Market Report
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surveys are showing that Millennials have a preference for urban living and having the option to get around without using a car.3 These preferences will be reflected in the marketplace in many ways, including an increase in the popularity of multifamily housing. This trend can be seen by comparing the forecasted growth in single-family and multifamily housing in the Orlando region. Figure 15 – Forecasted Annual Growth in Housing Starts in the Orlando Metro Area
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0% Change from Previous Year -4.0%
-6.0%
Single-Family Multifamily
Source: UCF Institute for Economic Competitiveness – July 2013 forecasts
Single-family housing starts will continue to occur at roughly twice the volume of multifamily starts per year over the next 25 years, but multifamily starts are forecasted to grow every year for the next 15 years while single-family starts are flat or even decline year to year. The development of apartments and condominiums is increasing in the Orlando region, and a substantial share of this development activity will likely occur in walkable, mixed-use places served by transit. The key takeaway from the job creation analysis is that the East Altamonte Study Area will likely need a robust and proactive strategy to achieve significant job creation around the SunRail station. Local market conditions for new office development are not strong, and multifamily residential is a viable alternative that is growing in popularity among consumers and developers alike. A viable job access strategy would focus on the ability of SunRail to connect Study Area residents with employment opportunities elsewhere. Key factors in such a strategy include:
• SunRail now provides ready access to three of the leading centers of higher paying jobs in the region. o Downtown Orlando, Florida Hospital, and Orlando Health are large concentrations of professional services, government, and healthcare jobs. If the
3 The Rockefeller Foundation and Transportation for America – “Access to Public Transportation a Top Criteria for Millennials When Deciding Where to Live, New Survey Shows.” April 22, 2014.
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proposed OIA extension is completed then a fourth major center will be readily accessible. These centers have most of their jobs located within walking distance of the rail station. • Access to suburban employment centers will depend on the implementation and success of local transit connections. o These centers, such as Maitland Center and Heathrow/Lake Mary, have most of their jobs located a significant distance from the SunRail station and their generally auto-oriented character means that access via other transportation modes is more challenging. o The FlexBus system being developed by Lynx and the Cities of Altamonte Springs, Casselberry, Longwood, and Maitland is about to move into the testing phase. This is a potential local transit service that would provide on-demand access between Maitland Center and the Maitland SunRail station. Other shuttle services and improved or optimized bus service should be considered for all of the major employment centers that could potentially be served by SunRail. • The area of Altamonte Springs west of the Study Area also is a significant employment center, and a major portion of its higher paying jobs are located at or near Florida Hospital Altamonte. o FlexBus would provide on-demand service to the hospital area from the station. However, because the service is accessed via a smartphone, it may not be a viable option for some Study Area residents due to the cost of such as device, and other transit options would be needed. The hospital itself (or with partners) could potentially operate a regularly scheduled shuttle to coincide with work shift changes and peak commuting hours if demand is sufficient. o It will be important to maximize the connectivity by multiple transportation modes both within the Study Area and between the Study Area and destinations in the local vicinity. Walking and biking connections, as well as other bus service, are important elements of TOD planning that can connect people to employment opportunities and the shopping and services they need before, during, and after the work day. • Local transit service should be coordinated to align with the working hours and shift changes of major employers in the area like Florida Hospital Altamonte and the stores at the Altamonte Mall. Such considerations should also be taken into account as SunRail service matures and its schedule is adjusted and/or expanded. The key takeaway from the job access analysis is that SunRail can link Study Area residents and others to several centers of higher paying jobs, but there is an opportunity to increase and improve those connections. Local transit service and physical connections are important components of a job access strategy that are not market-driven. With these components in place, a strategy for increasing housing development in the Study Area, especially affordable housing, can also serve as a job access strategy because it puts residents in closer proximity to jobs or the means to get to them without needing a car. An issue that cuts across both the job creation and job access strategies is the need to help equip Study Area residents with the education and training needed to compete effectively for the higher paying jobs that may be created in the Study Area or that they can access via SunRail. The analysis
40 MARKET STUDY OF POTENTIAL EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ALTAMONTE SPRINGS SUNRAIL STATION
detailed the difference between the educational attainment of residents and the education levels of workers at higher paying jobs in the SunRail-accessible employment centers. This mismatch highlights the need to link residents with resources that would allow them to close the skills gap. POTENTIAL STRATEGIES The start of SunRail service has focused the attention of planners and the real estate market on station areas like the East Altamonte Study Area, with the potential for TOD illustrating how enhanced regional accessibility can potentially spur new development activity. TOD normally encompasses a mix of uses, but given the economic conditions in East Altamonte the possibility of using TOD to link residents with employment opportunities is being considered. An approach that combines an emphasis on both job creation and job access can address the widest range of opportunities that may emerge. Job-generating development strategies are practiced in many places, and are not solely the province of TOD planning. Newly available transit access can be a selling point and perhaps even change the market’s view of a particular place’s development prospects, but all of the SunRail station areas will still be competing for jobs and development in a regional marketplace based on a variety of different location criteria. The most effective strategies for East Altamonte will capitalize on its strengths and address its challenges. Potential approaches are discussed below. Encourage/Assist Office Development In order to create jobs businesses need places for people to work, so the development of office space is a critical component of an employment-oriented TOD strategy. Because the Study Area is not an established employment center and the local office market is relatively weak, Seminole County would probably need to encourage or assist the development of office space in order to maintain a focus on employment-generating land uses rather than allow the market to potentially dictate residential uses in the station area. Coordination with the City of Altamonte Springs would likely be necessary to come to agreement on issues related to land use policies, utility provision, stormwater detention, development density and intensity, and other regulatory standards and guidelines. The policy tools for facilitating transit-oriented office development will be similar to those used to encourage TOD in general, but with a deliberate emphasis on one specific land use. The typical toolbox of TOD incentives should be considered, including:
• Expedited development approvals to enhance the certainty of the review process and minimize time and effort in this area by developers. • Targeted standards for TOD that reduce development costs and increase efficiency and project profitability, such as lower parking requirements, reduced setbacks, and/or taller building heights. • Financial incentives that reduce or eliminate project costs from impact fees, development review fees, and/or utility fees. • Direct actions by local government to set the stage for TOD, such as infrastructure and public realm improvements, proactive zoning and comprehensive plan amendments, and /or assisting with land assemblage to create sufficiently sized development sites.
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Given the potential market preference for multifamily residential over office for the upper floors of TOD buildings, planners and policy-makers will likely need to make a conscious decision to favor office development over residential in key locations near the SunRail station if the intent is to create a significant employment center. At minimum, the first several projects will probably need to be heavily incentivized to lay the groundwork, with later projects requiring less public policy intervention once a solid market position is established. Focus Economic Development Efforts to Attract Companies Even with the public sector taking an active role in facilitating office development in the Study Area, developers will still need to get enough prospective tenants to commit to a project in order to move forward. In order to obtain financing, a new office project will typically need to have preleased a significant share of the planned building space either through a large anchor tenant or an assortment of smaller tenants. This preleasing requirement will vary according to the guidelines of a specific lender or investor, but for a relatively untested location such as East Altamonte it will likely be conservative. New office development in this location will be pioneering in many respects, so financing sources will want sufficient proof of its viability before signing off on a project. Seminole County can help new office projects move forward by focusing its economic development efforts on the Study Area to attract companies. In order to capitalize on the public investment in rail transit, Making East Altamonte a priority area for development along with the other established target areas that the County is promoting as part of its economic development strategic plan can be a means of capitalizing on the public investment in rail transit. Given the goal of linking Study Area residents with higher paying jobs, the objectives for East Altamonte should be generally complementary with countywide economic development objectives. However, economic development efforts in the Study Area will need to be balanced against the other needs of the existing residents, including affordable and supportive housing and services for elderly and lower income households. There are several elements necessary for synchronizing countywide and Study Area economic development efforts:
• Determining the specific industry sectors and clusters to target and the most effective marketing message to reach these targets. • Establishing a brand identity for the Study Area that capitalizes on TOD principles and is relevant to the site-specific development opportunities. • Identifying the County staff and other resources needed to carry out the economic development strategy and monitor progress and results. • Coordinating with developers of TOD projects in the Study Area to present a unified message to the marketplace and connect prospective companies to potential office projects in the planning or development stages. The foundation of an effective economic development strategy for the Study Area is to have an effective TOD plan that helps to create a high quality place that is a compelling location for private investment. With effective plan implementation as a starting point, the strategic actions outlined above can deliver the brand message and coordinate the deal-making activities needed to achieve concrete economic development objectives.
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Improve Study Area Connectivity to Enhance Job Access Safe, comfortable, convenient access to the transit station by multiple transportation modes is a critical element of TOD. The connectivity of streets and sidewalks within the Study Area and availability of bike routes and local transit service are important for maximizing people’s ability to access jobs, shopping, and services that are located in the station area or are accessed via SunRail. Connectivity with the surrounding area not only helps bring SunRail riders in from outside the Study Area to use transit, it can make it easier for Study Area residents and people disembarking from SunRail to get to jobs and other destinations further from the station. Connectivity in the Altamonte Springs station area has been closely studied, with a recent study evaluating the existing conditions, identifying issues, and creating a list of projects that address current needs.4 The study identifies immediate, short term, and long term projects. The HUD grant supporting the East Altamonte station area plan also funded a sidewalk study of the East Altamonte Study Area that produced construction plans for an enhanced sidewalk network that will improve pedestrian connectivity in the area around the SunRail station. And as mentioned earlier in this report, Lynx and the Cities of Altamonte Springs and Casselberry are testing the FlexBus on- demand local bus service that can provide the important “last mile” access between the station and nearby destinations that are too far to walk to. This will be particularly important for linking the Study Area to local jobs such as those at or near Florida Hospital Altamonte and the Altamonte Mall. Seminole County can help facilitate these connectivity improvements in a variety of ways, from funding and implementation of sidewalk improvements to coordination with Lynx and the two Cities on the implementation of FlexBus service. The cost implications of this smartphone-accessed service for low-income Study Area residents should be studied and potential alternatives be developed that allow wider access. Connectivity should be a key element of the station area plan for East Altamonte because it makes it easier for Study Area residents to get to employment opportunities. Add More Housing to the Study Area, Especially Affordable Units With local connectivity improvements and regional accessibility via SunRail, the East Altamonte Study Area can become a place to live where it is possible to reach a variety of higher paying jobs and other daily needs without using a car. This is a fundamental benefit of TOD because households can use the money that would otherwise go to operating and maintaining a car toward other needs. An increasing number of workers, particularly younger ones who are part of the Millennial generation, prefer to live and work in places that do not require them to drive every day. Transit accessibility to jobs is becoming a positive selling point for residential development. Adding more housing to the Study Area is a job access strategy because it creates more opportunities for people to have car-free access to the higher paying jobs that are clustered around several SunRail stations. Because of the increasing demand for transit-oriented housing and the limited supply of station area land and development sites, it will be important to focus on the development of affordable housing in East Altamonte to ensure that lower income residents are not priced out of job access opportunities. The companion report to this one that assesses the housing
4 Florida Department of Transportation – Altamonte Springs SunRail Station Area Bicycle & Pedestrian Connectivity Study
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needs of the Study Area identifies potential strategies for increasing the supply of affordable housing. Market rate housing should also be a component of TOD in East Altamonte in order to encourage a stable and diverse community, but there needs to be a balance so that the benefits of TOD are broadly available. Connect Residents with Education and Training Resources One of the goals of the station area plan is to connect East Altamonte residents with higher paying job opportunities. While SunRail access and improved local connectivity will help physically get residents to job locations, their ability to actually obtain a job will be determined partly by their educational attainment and/or possession of necessary skills. As noted earlier in this report, there is a mismatch between the education level of many of the higher paying jobs accessible via SunRail or in the local area and the education level of many existing Study Area residents. Closing this gap will call for innovative strategies and partnerships to deliver education and training resources to East Altamonte. Seminole State College is an important resource, and its Altamonte Springs campus focuses on adult education and healthcare industry training, along with general education programs. Located at 850 State Road 434, the campus offers Associate degrees in Physical Therapy assistance, as well as certification for Respiratory Therapy, Nursing, Medical Coding and other jobs needed in the growing medical/institutional employment sector in Seminole County. The main campus of Seminole State College (located at the Lake Mary campus and accessible via SunRail and LYNX bus) offers Bachelor of Science degrees in Engineering Technology (valuable to modern industry such as Laser Photonics), and Construction, as well as certifications in skilled technical work that continues to be needed as Seminole County grows. These skills include many that are greatly in demand in the construction sector of the economy. Seminole State also has a joint program with the U.S. Small Business Administration. Training programs and other aids are available to assist entrepreneurs who desire to establish a small business in the East Altamonte Study Area. Convenient transit connections from the Study Area to the campus are a starting point in building a connection. Partnerships between the college, Seminole County, and charitable or nonprofit organizations could potentially be used to deliver programs at a convenient location within the Study Area, either at an existing community facility such as the Boys & Girls Club or a new facility. Seminole County also may be able to fund job training programs using CDBG resources or other community services funding. Given the strong presence of healthcare employment near the Altamonte Springs SunRail station and the two hospital stations, there may be opportunities to develop partnerships with Florida Hospital and Orlando Health that would provide training and job placement programs tailored to the needs of the East Altamonte community. Seminole County can also reach out to other major employers that are located near SunRail stations to explore potential job placement opportunities. The County could take the lead in outreach and coordination with employers and public or nonprofit organizations that can identify the skills needed and resources available for creating programs that are directly linked to the workforce needs of employers that can be reached by riding SunRail.
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