MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update September 2009

Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, July-  Although food reserves are steadily declining after a relatively September 2009) good harvest, the majority of households still have reliable food access as the food supply and market prices remain generally stable. In the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid districts of Sofala province, very poor and poor households continue to be moderately food insecure.

 According to the seasonal forecast for the 2009/10 rainfall season, during the first half of the season (October– December 2009), near‐normal to above‐normal rainfall is expected for much of the country, including large parts of the central and the entire southern region, and above‐normal to near‐normal rainfall for the entire northern region.

 In the second half of the season (January‐March 2010), the southern region and the southern part of the central region expect near normal to below‐normal rainfall, while most of the central region and parts of the northern region will likely have near‐normal to above‐normal rainfall, and the northern region has a chance of above‐normal to normal rainfall.

 Maize and other food commodity prices are generally rising according to the normal seasonal trend.

For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity

Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale

Source: FEWS NET Seasonal calendar and critical events

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this Av. FPLM, 2698, Maputo 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: 258 21 460588; Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. Mobile: 258 82 3050574 [email protected] Fax: 258 21 462657 [email protected]

www.fews.net/mozambique

MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update September 2009

Food security overview

Although food reserves are steadily declining after a relatively good harvest, the majority of the households still have reliable food access as the food supply and market prices remain generally stable and following seasonal patterns. In the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid districts of Sofala province, very poor and poor households continue to be at high risk of food insecurity. In these areas, crop production has been below food requirements, and some households are utilizing coping strategies to earn income in order to purchase food. The Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN)’s Vulnerability assessment Group (GAV) has completed the field work for its 2009 vulnerabilty assessment in Mozambique and analysis is underway which will provide an updated information of likely severity and scale of needs until the next major harvest, in April 2010. The report should be released in mid‐October.

To date, 247,000 persons are estimated to be moderately food insecure in semi‐arid and arid zones. No food aid has been delivered due mainly to lack of resources. The World Food Program (WFP) has confirmed resources to assist only 175,000 food‐insecure persons from October until December 2009. Particular attention must be given to the most vulnerable households during the hunger period (October to mid‐January), through adoption of recommended interventions, including food aid, to avoid further deterioration of conditions and to enable households to fully engage in preparing for the approaching agricultural season.

Second‐season production has been satisfactory in the lowland and irrigated areas, providing additional food and income to households in these areas, and the preparation for the upcoming 2009/10 cropping season is underway as the onset of the rainy season approaches. In the arid‐ and semi‐arid regions, the dryer conditions may undermine land preparation, as the soils are hard, contrary to rest of the other agro‐ecological areas. Field information reveals that due to relatively good production in the last agricultural season, the farmer‐saved seeds will be the principal source of seeds this season. In other places, the majority of the households are meeting their seasonal seed needs by saving traditional seeds or through market purchases. A plan to carry out seed and input fairs is not yet finalized and is so far it is still unclear whether they will take place.

The most likely food‐security scenario for July‐December 2009 (see the July FEWS NET food security outlook) is still valid. The food security situation is expected to remain stable for the whole country, except for the arid and semi‐arid zones, where food security conditions are expected to be critical as we approach the hunger season and water availability might become problematic. Moderate food insecurity will likely extend to very poor and poor households in addition to districts in the interior zones. With the forthcoming cyclone season, temporary needs may arise if a cyclone reaches areas along the coast.

Seasonal progress and climate outlook

A 2009/10 seasonal forecast, developed by international, regional, and national climate experts, was released at the 13th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF‐13) in late August 2009. The outlook for Mozambique during the first half of the season (October 2009 – December 2009) forecasts near‐normal to above‐normal rainfall for much of the country, including large parts of the central and the entire southern region, and above normal to near normal for the entire northern region (Figure 2a). For the second half of the season (January 2010‐March 2010), the southern region and the southern part of the central region have an increased chance of receiving near‐normal to below‐normal rainfall, while much of the central region and parts of the northern region have an increased chance of receiving near‐normal to above‐normal rainfall, and in the northern region (except southern Niassa province) has an increased chance of having above‐normal to normal rainfall (Figure 2b).

Although there is 75 percent likelihood in the two highest categories (35 plus 40 percent) there is still a 25 percent chance for the lowest category to occur. Also, the outlook for the 2009/10 rainfall season does not take into account potential excessive rainfall that may occur due to tropical cyclones because tropical disturbances, including cyclone conditions and other locally driven weather systems, cannot be accurately predicted on a seasonal basis. Based on the above forecast, the Early Warning Group for Food Security of the Ministry of Agriculture is developing projections of the water requirement

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update September 2009 satisfaction index for crops, which will be used to develop recommendations for farmers on which types of crops to plant. This information is expected to be released soon.

Scientists from the outlook forum at the regional level have also combined forecasts from all SADC countries to produce a regional forecast. This is extremely important, as it helps decision‐makers, and users in general, to assess the possible impacts of climate conditions in other areas within the region. The potential impact on international river basins (e.g., Zambeze, Limpopo, Save, Buzi, Maputo, etc.) is of particular importance. Figures 3a and 3b illustrate the regional climate outlook for October‐December 2009 (Figure 3a) and January‐March 2010 (Figure 3b). The regional seasonal prediction is relevant only to seasonal time scales and relatively large areas, and local and month‐to‐month variations may occur.

Figure 2a: Forecast for October-December 2009 Figure 2b: Forecast for January-March 2010

Source: SADC Drought Monitoring Centre and National institute of Meteorology (INAM)

Note: The numbers for each zone indicate the probabilities of rainfall in each of the three categories: below-normal, normal and above-normal. The top number indicates the probability of above-normal rainfall, the middle number is for normal rainfall, and the bottom number is for below-normal rainfall. For example, in the figure on the left, for southern and central Mozambique, there is a 35 percent likelihood of above-normal rainfall; a 40 percent likelihood of normal rainfall; and a 25 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update September 2009

Figure 3a: Forecast for October-December 2009 Figure 3b: Forecast for January-March 2010

Source: SADC Drought Monitoring Centre

Rainy season expected to start in early November

Figure 4 shows the average start of the rainy season across the Figure 4. Historical onset of rains (by dekads) country. Rains normally start in early November in Maputo province and the southern part of Gaza province. By mid‐November, the rainy season has normally started across much of the country, including some of the productive zones in central Mozambique and much of the semi‐arid south. The latest start of rains happens in the north, in Nampula, Niassa, Cabo Delgado, and parts of Zambezia, Tete, and the semi‐arid zones of Manica and Sofala provinces, where the season does not normally get underway until December. The graphic shows small areas, less than the size of a district, in Manica and Gaza provinces, where rains start in late October.

During the last season (2008/09), the onset of rains was delayed by almost two or more dekads1 in much of the country when compared to the mean onset shown in Figure 4. After the effective start, the amount of rainfall received was below normal during much of the first half of the season (October‐December 2009), but by mid‐December, rainfall improved significantly throughout the remainder of the season. The mean onset of rains indicated in Figure 4 was obtained by averaging the start of rains for eight rainfall seasons 2001/2002 up to 2008/2009.

Source: USGS/FEWS NET

1 Dekad – word used to indicate a period of ten days

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update September 2009

Markets and trade

In general, retail maize prices in all monitored markets remain stable and below those of last year, although they remain above average. From January to May 2009, prices were much higher than average and last year’s prices, as a result of the food price crisis of last year. As of May, the prices of maize and other food commodities went below the previous year levels following the harvest. Currently, maize and other food commodity prices are generally rising according to the normal seasonal trend. In some reference markets of the south, declining food reserves and supply levels are pushing staple food prices above last year’s prices. This is true in Chokwe, were August maize prices went up by five percent from July and are now 4 percent above last year’s prices. In Maputo, maize prices from July to August remained unchanged, while in Manica and Nampula, the change from July to August was also four percent. More on the trends of staple food prices can be seen in the attached Price Annex of this report.

As stated in previous reports, in most areas of the south, households depend heavily on their own crop production for food and income. With total exhaustion of food reserves, most households rely on the market to purchase food, but higher prices limit the amount that poor and middle‐income households can afford. So far, current maize prices are still within the reach of most households, but this may change if prices rise abnormally and most households lose their purchasing power. Therefore, close monitoring of staple food prices trends is strongly recommended. According to seasonal variation, it is expected that by November, December, and January, prices may reach their peak before the seasonal drop in February/March in anticipation of the harvest.

According to recent reports from the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA), maize flows are following their normal seasonal trend, leading to a gradual decrease in maize supplies in southern markets. The main reference markets in the south, Chókwe and Maputo, are receiving maize from the central region. For instance, the maize sold in Maputo markets originates in Nhamatanda and Chibabava in Sofala province, while most of the maize sold in Chókwe originates in Manica province, specifically from Chimoio. The maize supplied to Chimoio city is originating from Bárue district in Manica province while Beira, the main central city, is mostly supplied by Nhamatanda and Maríngue in Sofala province. The capital city of Zambézia, Quelimane, is mainly supplied by Morrumbala district in the same province. Nampula city in the north is mainly supplied by Zambezia province, particularly by Guruè, Ile, and Alto Molócue districts. The flow of beans is particularly strong at this time of year. According to the SIMA reports, Maputo city in the south has been receiving beans from Lichinga district in the north. Gorongosa is currently selling locally produced beans. Tete and Chimoio City are heavily supplied by beans from Angonia, a major producing district in the northern part of Tete province. Quelimane city is receiving beans from Guruè, Alto Molocue, and Maganja da Costa districts within the same province.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin September 2009

Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food commodities. Maize is the staple food for the poor, with rice most often used as a substitute. Beans are important to all wealth groups. Each of the markets represented here act as indicators for the broader region. Tete is representative for the province by the same name, Nampula is the main market in the north and is representative for the region, and has linkages with the interior of Zambezia and Nampula provinces and coastal Nampula. Beira, Gorongosa, and Manica market has links with Chimoio market, which has links with Gorongosa and southern markets. The Chokwe and Maputo markets in the south are linked to the Chimoio, Manica, and Gorongosa markets in the central region. Chókwe is the reference market for the southern region, except Maputo, the capital.

Monthly prices are supplied by the market information system in Mozambique.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin September 2009

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin September 2009

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