MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009

Figure 1. Current estimated food security • Despite some improvement in the overall food security, in the conditions, (April-June 2009) semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid district of Sofala province, households are at high risk of food insecurity in the very near future, and moderate levels of food insecurity are expected to continue throughout the consumption year.

• The Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) projected that as early as August an estimated 175,000 persons in the critical districts in the provinces of Tete, Gaza and Sofala are in need of food aid, until the 2009/2010 harvest, while an additional 72,000 persons among poor households in Maputo and Inhambane provinces will require food aid from October until April 2010.

• Food insecurity could also affect households living in some districts of Nampula and Zambezia provinces where poor households will likely need assistance. Given better functionality of the markets in these areas, SETSAN recommends cash transfers are from October or beyond until April 2010.

• The most recent weekly report from the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA), indicates that weekly maize prices at the consumer level have been generally stable with small fluctuations in the central zone where some increases were Source: FEWS NET observed. Prices are expected to start rising within the next month.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Av. FPLM, 2698, Maputo 1717 H St NW this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Tel/fax: 258 21 460588 Washington DC 20006 Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

www.fews.net/mozambique

MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009

Source: FEWS NET

Food security summary

Food security across the country has improved with the arrival of the new harvest, and most households have now nearly adequate access to food. However, in the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid district of Sofala province, households are at high risk of food insecurity in the very near future as a result of a combination of adverse climatic conditions, occurrence of pests, high food prices, and weak livelihood options. Access to food will be short‐lived and moderate levels of food insecurity are expected to persist throughout the consumption year.

In most of the semi‐arid areas indicated above, it is believed that very poor and poor households are still facing difficulties to meet their food needs. Food access remains critical given the poor roads infrastructure and less than normal food availability in the markets. Inadequate access to food is likely to continue until the next main harvest in 2010. Households may have benefited from declining prices right after harvest, but there is indication that the maize prices, for instance, are already increasing contrary to the normal trends. This will undermine further the access to food through market purchases, especially for poorer households that depend on markets.

While the annual assessment is being planned for July to determine the scale of need and appropriate response mechanisms in the country, SETSAN has anticipated that 240,000 to 350,000 people are at high risk of food insecurity, and will require humanitarian assistance until the main harvest in April/May 2010 in the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province (districts of Changara, Cahora Bassa, Mágoe and Mutarara) and northwest Gaza province (Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Chibuto and Mabalane), and the semi arid district of Sofala province (Chemba, Cheringoma, Chibabava, Maríngue, and Machanga), due to a very low food stocks, limited cash income, and high food prices. Since the current season follows a bad season, adverse conditions may be experienced much earlier and with greater intensity than normal.

As early as August, the most vulnerable households will not be able to sustain themselves without external assistance. Therefore, SETSAN recommended food aid for an estimated 175,000 persons in the critical districts in the provinces of Tete, Gaza and Sofala, until April 2010. This will prevent households from employing extreme and negative coping strategies. As the hunger season begins, it is expected that an additional 72,000 persons among poor households in Maputo and Inhambane provinces will find their food stocks and ability to cope exhausted. Unless these households receive food assistance from October to the main harvest season next year, they will be unable to sustain their lives. SETSAN recommends that authorities consider the provision of inputs, nutritional programs, and water collection and where markets are working reasonably well‐cash transfers.

It is worth noting that late in the year, food insecurity could also affect households living in some areas of Nampula province (districts of Angoche, Moma, Mongicual and Mossuril) and Zambezia province (Chinde, Mopeia, Morrumbala), where poor households will likely need assistance. Given better functionality of the markets in these areas, cash transfers are recommended from October or beyond to April 2010.

A failure in activating a timely humanitarian intervention will cause poorer and very poor households to begin to employ extreme and negative coping strategies, including consumption of improper food on a large scale, such as wild foods. These wild foods are highly toxic with the possibility of causing health problems with the risk of death.

Food security assessment in southern Tete province

FEWS NET’s April‐September 2009 Food Security Outlook highlighted geographic areas that should be closely monitored throughout the consumption year, including the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete and northwest Gaza provinces. The previous FSU mentioned that in late 2008, these areas were moderately food insecure, a condition that resulted from protracted drought during the 2007/08 production season, and which was compounded by acute water shortages in semi‐ arid areas. Therefore, given the adverse agro‐climatic conditions during the 2008/09 production season in the same areas, there is some concern that similar conditions are likely to be found during the consumption period later in the year.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009

FEWS NET and the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) carried out a qualitative rapid food security assessment, from June 8‐13, in Mágoe, Cahora Bassa, Changara, and Mutarara districts in southern Tete Province (See Figure 2). Similarly to the previous assessment to Gaza province, this assessment consisted of key informant interviews with district administrative authorities, agriculture authorities, community leaders, farmers, and household representatives. The assessment also included observations from community visits.

Assessment findings for the Figure 2. Districts (in orange) covered by the FEWS NET/INGC joint assessment, southern Tete province 8-10 June

Figure 3, shows satellite rainfall ZAMBIA Mandimba distribution estimates in Mutarara Angonia ± Chifunde and Changara, two of the four visited Macanga districts in southern Tete province. Maravia Tsangano Mecanhelas Rains started late in December 2008 Zumbu when they normally are expected in TETE Chiuta MALAWI early November. During Cahora Bassa Magoe approximately two months, from Moatize mid December and beginning of Cidade de Tete February, the region has received Changara Milange adequate rains and expectations Mutarara were good among farmers and Guro Tambara agriculture authorities until early Morrumbala Chemba February when rains abruptly ceased ZAMBEZIA ZIMBABWE and were followed by a thirty days MANICA dry spell. As seen from the graphs, Caia Barue Macossa Maringue Mopeia 025 50 100 rains resumed in mid March and SOFALA Kilometers CheringomaMarromeu ceased at the end of April. Most Gorongosa households planted in mid‐ December so by the time rains Source: FEWS NET stopped most crops were in the flowering to soft dough stages. This is when the water requirement is at its maximum knowing that the growing cycle of the staple crop ranges from 90 to 120 days. As a result, most crops from the rain‐fed lands were lost. Exceptions include the lowlands where residual moisture sustained crops until maturity. Unfortunately those who have access to the lowlands are a minority. In addition, most productive lowland areas of Mágoe and Cahora Bassa districts for instance are massively populated by wild animals such as elephants, hippopotamus and wild boars. The proliferation of wild animals in the zone is the origin of the so‐called man‐wild fauna conflict. The man‐wild fauna conflict was mentioned to be a disaster in the region. Vast areas of planted lands are drastically devastated by elephants and hippopotamus. Only in Mágoe District, authorities estimate that nearly half of the maize planted in the lowlands for the 2008/09 agriculture season was lost due to elephants.

Figure 3. Rainfall distribution in Mágoe and Mutarara districts in southern Tete province – Rainfall stopped early in January when most crops were at flowering and soft dough stages

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009

Data source: USGS/FEWS NET

Due to above indicated reasons, the overall food security conditions have not improved in the four assessed semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province compared to the same period of last year. The fact that this situation follows another bad year exacerbates the food insecurity conditions in those areas. Although currently households are benefiting from the limited harvest of the 2008/09 agriculture season, food security conditions are expected to start deteriorating much earlier when harvests from these areas begin to run out earlier than normal. Similarly to the majority of households in rural Mozambique, most households of southern Tete are also vulnerable to production losses, given their livelihoods, which limit their ability to earn cash income, and general isolation from markets and roads. Market plays an important role in purchasing food from surplus production areas but does not guarantee the flow of food into deficit areas especially remote areas due to factors including poor market structure, poor access roads, and low purchasing power in deficit production areas. To cope, poor households of the semi‐arid districts in southern Tete will sell forest products (e.g., firewood, charcoal where conditions permit) and other goods and begin consuming wild foods. Those who are capable will use lowlands near the Zambezi River, Cahora Bassa Lake and other lowlands to cultivate and fishing. Contrary to the majority of families in south that can receive remittances from relatives in urban areas and in South Africa, these households receive little or no remittances at all.

In addition to agriculture, livelihoods in some places of the assessed areas also center on livestock breeding. However, most recently resettled households from the flood risk areas do not possess livestock. Nevertheless, even for those owning livestock, its consumption to improve food security is uncommon, and the main use of these livestock is for animal traction and transportation especially now that livestock is still being promoted by the government. Within these areas, the households most at risk of food insecurity are the poor and very poor located in the new resettlement villages and those who have been living in the rain‐fed areas, with no livestock and less able to cope once their crop production is exhausted.

In general, the combination of available food reserves and normal sustainable coping strategies will allow households to sustain their lives without resorting to negative coping strategies up until July in highlands of Mutarara District, and August in some areas of Mágoe, Cahora Bassa and Changara. In other words, from August most vulnerable households of Mutarara will require some sort of humanitarian assistance, such as food aid and inputs for the preparation of the upcoming main agricultural season and from September that intervention will be required in Mágoe, Cahora Bassa and Changara.

Mutarara District

Of the four assessed districts, food security conditions in Mutarara are the worst. Mutarara District has four Administrative Posts: Inhangoma, Nhamayabue, Doa and Charre. Rainfall for the 2008/09 season started a month late and ceased early in February, resulting in widespread loss of crops – particularly of maize, a deeply sensitive crop to water shortages, followed by sorghum and millet. Although final production figures are not yet available (during the writing of the report), qualitative estimates from the district’s agriculture authorities indicate that planned figures for main season production were not met due to insufficient rains. Food reserves from this year’s production in the district are expected to last until July.

The second agricultural season is only practiced in the lowlands by households that border river banks and those that have irrigation facilities. Nevertheless, in the absence of floods, the man‐wild fauna conflict involves hippopotamus that affects near riverine areas. Given that most of the households were transferred from the flood risk zones where soils allowed continuous replanting throughout the year, and placed in the rain‐fed zones where only a single agriculture season is possible, their productive ability is quite limited. In general, with failure of the main agriculture season due to inadequate rains, households from the newly resettled villages are left with limited or no options to cope. To respond to this adversity, government and partners are currently redoubling efforts by introducing and promoting drought resistant varieties of crops. This has had little impact to date. For those with access to lowlands where a second season is possible, seed availability is another constraint that farmers face. Agriculture authorities state that there are no planned input fairs to support these second season needs.

Food prices for crops available in the local markets are now increasing and poor to very poor households with limited or no income have relatively little access to food on these markets. As already mentioned above, the adequate functionality of markets is seriously affected by poor access roads.

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009

Livestock body conditions are currently good, pasture is widely available and water availability has improved thanks to new water sources provided by the government and partners.

Mágoe District

Mágoe district has three Administrative Posts: Chinthopo, Mphende and Mucumbura. Compared with the same period of last year the food security situation has improved in the Administrative Post of Chinthopo thanks to favorable agro‐climatic conditions. Currently, most maize traded in the region comes from Chinthopo. In Mphende, the district capital, the food security situation is unchanged if compared to the same period of last year while in Mucumbura the situation has worsened. Overall, district authorities estimate that nearly half (50.6 percent) of planted maize for the 2008/09 agriculture season was lost due to a combination of bad rains and wild animals, especially elephants. With the second season ongoing, those households with access to lowlands are permanently planting and replanting whenever seeds and land availability permit. As a result, crops currently growing in the lowland areas are at different stages from germination to maturity.

The above mentioned man‐wild fauna conflict is seriously affecting the Magoe District especially by elephants and wild boars. Protective measures taken by households are not effective enough to protect crops. Interviewed farmers mentioned that nearly half of their produce is consumed by wild animals. Coupled to wild fauna, the district is also affected by a plague of thorny locust and army worms that may affect the crops in‐field unless control measures are taken in a timely manner.

In general, food reserves combined with sustainable coping strategies in this district will be enough to last until September in the Administrative Post of Chinthopo and only until August in Mucumbura and Mphende. By September in these latter two Administrative Posts, the food security situation will deserve some sort of humanitarian intervention, food and inputs, to assist the most vulnerable households who will not sustain their lives without extra support.

Food prices and market functionality is similar to that described for Mutarara. Livestock body conditions are currently good, pasture is widely available and water availability has improved due to new water sources provided by the government and partners.

Changara and Cahora Bassa Districts

Although the assessment was not intended to cover Changara and Cahora Bassa districts due to time constraints, a quick contact with Administrative authorities, household members and field observations by the mission team helps to conclude the following: The northern part of Cahora Bassa has a similar picture of food security as the Administrative Post of Chinthopo in Magoe. The southern part of the district has a similar picture to that of Mucumbura and Mphende in Magoe. Changara District is relatively better than Mutarara and the combination of food reserves and sustainable coping strategies will last until August. The conflict man‐wild fauna is equally worrisome in Cahora Bassa District and to a less extent in Changara. Livestock body conditions are currently good, pasture is widely available and water availability has been improving in the two districts. Food prices and market functionality is similar to that described for Mutarara.

Maize prices above average

At the national level the average monthly maize prices until May 2009 were still decreasing thanks to the newly harvested crops of the 2008/09 agriculture season as indicated by some reference markets in Figure 4 below. Recent weekly reports from the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA) indicate that weekly maize prices at consumer level have been generally stable with small fluctuations in the central zone where some increases were observed. The monthly drops from April to May were 23 percent in Chokwe, the reference market in southern Mozambique, 25 percent in Manica (center), 27 percent in Nampula (north) and 13 percent in Maputo, the capital city.

According to the SIMA report, maize flows from productive areas of the country to main markets are ongoing satisfactorily. Southern markets, such as Xiquelene in Maputo, are receiving maize from Nhamatanda in the central province of Sofala and from Manhiça in northeast Maputo province. Chokwe, another important market in the south has been supplied by maize produced locally and from neighboring districts such as Massingir in Gaza and Manhiça in Maputo province. The main

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MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009

central markets such as Tete and Quelimane are supplied by maize coming from Macanga for Tete and Lugela, Morrumbala and Mocuba for Quelimane. In the north, Nampula market has been receiving maize produced within Nampula province and from Ile and Alto Molócue districts in Zambezia province. Pemba has received maize from Chiure District while Lichinga is supplied by Sanga district.

Figure 4. Nominal retail prices for maize in reference markets in Mozambique (in Meticais per kg)

Data source: SIMA

As recently harvested food dwindles, prices are expected to start rising within the next month. From the graph analysis in Figure 4, the current maize prices will still stand above the five‐year average but close to the previous season. Close monitoring is recommended given the crop losses in some semi‐arid areas of the country.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009

Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food commodities. Maize is the staple food for the poor, with rice most often used as a substitute. Beans are important to all wealth groups. Each of the markets represented here act as indicators for the broader region. Tete is representative for the province by the same name, Nampula is the main market in the north and is representative for the region, and has linkages with the interior of Zambezia and Nampula provinces and coastal Nampula. Beira, Gorongosa, and Manica market has links with Chimoio market, which has links with Gorongosa and southern markets. The Chokwe and Maputo markets in the south are linked to the Chimoio, Manica, and Gorongosa markets in the central region. Chókwe is the reference market for the southern region, except Maputo, the capital.

Monthly prices are supplied by the market information system in Mozambique.

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ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin June 2009

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