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Part 4: Regional Development Plan

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Part 4: Regional Development Plan PART 4: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Chapter 1 Overall Conditions of the Study Area The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique November 2007 PART 4: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Chapter 1 Overall Conditions of the Study Area 1.1 Existing Conditions of the Study Area The Study area consists of the two provinces of Niassa and Nampula. The total length of the Study road is approximately 350 km. In this chapter, overall conditions of the study area are described in order to prepare a regional development plan and to analyze economic, social and financial viability. The Nacala Corridor, which extends to Malawi through the Nampula and Niassa Provinces of Mozambique from Nacala Port, serves as a trucking route that connects northern agricultural zones with important cities and/or towns. In the rainy season, which is from November to April, the region has a high rainfall ranging from 1,200 to 2,000 mm. As the Study road is an unpaved road, it is frequently impassable during the rainy season, affecting the transportation of crops during this period. Looking at the 3 regions in Mozambique, results of the economic performance study conducted by UNDP over the period under analysis continue to show heavy economic concentration in the southern region of the country, with an average of about 47% of real production as can be seen in Figure 1.1.1. Within the southern region, Maputo City stands out with a contribution in real terms of about 20.8%. The central region follows, with a contribution of 32%, and finally, the northern region with only 21% of national production. In the following tables and graphs, the relevant existing Socio-Economic Indicators of the provinces in the Study Area are shown. Figure 1.1.1 Average Contribution to GDP by Region Source: Mozambique National Human Development Report 2005 4-1-1 The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique November 2007 Table 1.1.1 Existing Socio-Economic Indicators of the Provinces in the Study Area General Nampula Niassa National Population – National Statistics Institute (INE) projection for 2004 3,563,220 966,580 19 million Children under age 18 (2004) 1,832,340 519,330 9,613,470 % of population that live below poverty line (2003) 52.60% 52.10% 54% Mortality Under five mortality rate per 1000 (2003) 220 206 178 Infant mortality rate per 1000 (2003) 164 140 124 Nutritional status Chronic malnutrition among children 0-5 years (stunting) (2003) 42% 47% 41% Acute malnutrition among children 0-5 years (wasting) (2003) 6.00% 1.30% 4% Children underweight between 0-5 years (2003) 28.20% 25.10% 23.70% Water and Sanitation Access to safe drinking water (2003) 32.20% 30.20% 35.70% Access to sanitation (2003) 26.20% 70% 44.80% HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS Prevalence among 15- 49 year olds (2004) 9.20% 11.10% 13.60% Immunization Children 12-23 months fully immunized (2003) 53.90% 46.60% 63.30% Children 12-23 months immunized against measles (2003) 69.10% 51.90% 76.70% Education and Illiteracy Primary net enrolment rate (2003) 46.30% 47.30% 61% Adult illiteracy rate (2003) 65.10% 64.40% 53.60% Female illiteracy rate (2003) 81.40% 68% 68% Maternity care and adolescent fertility Fertility Rate (2003) 6.2 7.2 5.5 Births attended by skilled health personnel (2003) 38.20% 47% 47.70% Births in health institutions (2003) 36.80% 46% 49% Communication Total % of population with radios (2003) 48.30% 43% 45.50% Source: UNICEF Moz. 4-1-2 The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique November 2007 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 Others Niassa 10,000,000 Nampula 5,000,000 0 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Figure 1.1.2 Population of the Region Source: 1997 Census 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 US$ million 500 400 300 200 100 0 Tete Gaza Sofala Manica Niassa Niassa Nampula Zambézia Inhambane Maputo cidade Cabo Delgado Maputo provincia Province Figure 1.1.3 GDP of Mozambique by Provinces Source: INE (National Statistics Institute) 1.1.1 Socio-Economic Conditions of Nampula Province 1) Population The total population of Nampula Province is 3,861,347 (2007). This is 19% of the national population, as shown in Figure 1.1.2. 4-1-3 The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique November 2007 2) Poverty Nampula is one of the largest provinces (81.606 Kms2, 10% of the total surface of the country) and is the most populated province in Mozambique (3.5 million inhabitants, 22% of the total population of the country). The population density (42 inhabitants per square Km) is the second highest in the country, exceeded only by the city of Maputo. More than 42% of the population is concentrated in six coastal districts (of the 18 districts existent in the province) and 11% live in the provincial capital,, the city of Nampula. Data from the year 2004 rate Nampula in ninth place amongst the eleven provinces of Mozambique in terms of the Human Development Rate (HDR) (0.3) and the Human Poverty Rate (HPR) (52.6), Life expectancy in Nampula stands at 41.3 years, the third lowest in Mozambique. 3) Economy (GDP) Nampula’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was approximately 8,211 million Meticais in 2004, is equivalent to two thirds of the GDP for the Northern region of Mozambique (including Niassa and Cabo Delgado), and approximately 13% of the GDP for Mozambique. Nampula produces approximately 18% of the agricultural commercial production in the country, 12% of commercial fishery. The province receives about 10% of all domestic tourism and 2% of all the foreign tourists coming into Mozambique. Its industrial activity is of little significance within the national context (1%). The two main sectors of the provincial economy, respectively agricultural and commerce represent, on average, 71% of the provincial GDP, while the manufacturing industry contributes, on average, only 7% of the provincial GDP. On average, the annual growth of the GDP and the GDP per capita between 1996 and 2000, were respectively 6% and 4%. This was considered reasonable and in conformity with the national averages. However, this average annual growth is misleading because of the abnormal growth registered in 1997. In the last couple of years, the GDP has actually remained unchanged and, the GDP per capita has decreased somewhat. Consumer Price Index of the province in comparison with the nation is shown in Figure 1.1.4. 4-1-4 The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique November 2007 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jul Jul Jul Abr Set Abr Set Abr Fev Mai Fev Out Mai Fev Out Mai Jan Mar Jun Jan Mar Jun Jan Mar Jun Ano Ago Nov Dez Ago Nov Dez Ago 2004 2005 2006 MOÇAMBIQUE Nampula Figure 1.1.4 Consumer Price Index Source: INE 4) Performance of Sectors Contribution of each sector to the GDP in the province is shown in Figure 1.1.5. Agricultural production and cattle breeding has developed positively in the last five years. However, even those activities have demonstrated inconsistent growth rate and sudden fluctuations. These fluctuations mainly occur due to the vulnerable conditions of technical and social production. For instance, there exists a high, dependency on climate conditions and vulnerability in relation to pests and diseases. The limited access to credit, means and production factors, extension services, know how and qualifications, markets and means of draining, warehousing and conservation, are common factors that dictate these major fluctuations, even though they have not obstructed growth. General features of agricultural production in Nampula in comparison with other provinces are shown in Figure 1.1.6. 4-1-5 The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique 15% 2% 11% 6% 3% 7% Agriculture, forestry and cattle breedinf 100% Manufacturing Industry November 2007 56% Fishery 80% Transportation and 60% Figure 1.1.5 Share of GDP communication Trade 40% Other industries 20% Other services 0% Maize in Grain Rice Mapira in Grain Mexoeira in Grain The annual average production of timber (unsown trunks) Peanuis approximatelyt 7 thousand cubic meters, but the figures for sawn timber are much less. In the year 2001 it was Beans Butter in Grain equivalent to only 1.3 thousand cubic meters Maputo without benefiting from any type of Nhemba beans in Grain Gaza Figure 1.1.6 Agricultural Products Inhambane Cotton Sofala Manica Boer beans in Grain Tete Zambezia Fresh Cassava Cabo Delgado Niassa Sweet Potat Nampula ‘value adding’ through processing. Most of timber production is exported, 4-1-6 Source: INE The Study on Upgrading of Nampula – Cuamba Road FINAL REPORT in the Republic of Mozambique November 2007 The development of the manufacturing industry in Nampula is also reflected by large variations, especially over last five years. The major crisis in the cashew nut, textile, oil and soap industries and the periodic crisis in the cotton sector have greatly affected the performance of this sector. These industries are based on initial semi-processing of primary export products. The activities of larger processing industry connected to the domestic market depend on import; technology, qualifications, business organization and capital stock which are largely obsolete. The intra and inter industrial and sector links in the country are weak; financial resources for investment and current operations are scarce or very expensive.
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