MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009 Figure 1. Current estimated food security • Despite some improvement in the overall food security, in the conditions, (April-June 2009) semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid district of Sofala province, households are at high risk of food insecurity in the very near future, and moderate levels of food insecurity are expected to continue throughout the consumption year. • The Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) projected that as early as August an estimated 175,000 persons in the critical districts in the provinces of Tete, Gaza and Sofala are in need of food aid, until the 2009/2010 harvest, while an additional 72,000 persons among poor households in Maputo and Inhambane provinces will require food aid from October until April 2010. • Food insecurity could also affect households living in some districts of Nampula and Zambezia provinces where poor households will likely need assistance. Given better functionality of the markets in these areas, SETSAN recommends cash transfers are from October or beyond until April 2010. • The most recent weekly report from the Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA), indicates that weekly maize prices at the consumer level have been generally stable with small fluctuations in the central zone where some increases were Source: FEWS NET observed. Prices are expected to start rising within the next month. Seasonal calendar and critical events FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in Av. FPLM, 2698, Maputo 1717 H St NW this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Tel/fax: 258 21 460588 Washington DC 20006 Agency for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] www.fews.net/mozambique MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009 Source: FEWS NET Food security summary Food security across the country has improved with the arrival of the new harvest, and most households have now nearly adequate access to food. However, in the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province and northwest Gaza province, and the semi‐arid district of Sofala province, households are at high risk of food insecurity in the very near future as a result of a combination of adverse climatic conditions, occurrence of pests, high food prices, and weak livelihood options. Access to food will be short‐lived and moderate levels of food insecurity are expected to persist throughout the consumption year. In most of the semi‐arid areas indicated above, it is believed that very poor and poor households are still facing difficulties to meet their food needs. Food access remains critical given the poor roads infrastructure and less than normal food availability in the markets. Inadequate access to food is likely to continue until the next main harvest in 2010. Households may have benefited from declining prices right after harvest, but there is indication that the maize prices, for instance, are already increasing contrary to the normal trends. This will undermine further the access to food through market purchases, especially for poorer households that depend on markets. While the annual assessment is being planned for July to determine the scale of need and appropriate response mechanisms in the country, SETSAN has anticipated that 240,000 to 350,000 people are at high risk of food insecurity, and will require humanitarian assistance until the main harvest in April/May 2010 in the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete province (districts of Changara, Cahora Bassa, Mágoe and Mutarara) and northwest Gaza province (Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Chibuto and Mabalane), and the semi arid district of Sofala province (Chemba, Cheringoma, Chibabava, Maríngue, and Machanga), due to a very low food stocks, limited cash income, and high food prices. Since the current season follows a bad season, adverse conditions may be experienced much earlier and with greater intensity than normal. As early as August, the most vulnerable households will not be able to sustain themselves without external assistance. Therefore, SETSAN recommended food aid for an estimated 175,000 persons in the critical districts in the provinces of Tete, Gaza and Sofala, until April 2010. This will prevent households from employing extreme and negative coping strategies. As the hunger season begins, it is expected that an additional 72,000 persons among poor households in Maputo and Inhambane provinces will find their food stocks and ability to cope exhausted. Unless these households receive food assistance from October to the main harvest season next year, they will be unable to sustain their lives. SETSAN recommends that authorities consider the provision of inputs, nutritional programs, and water collection and where markets are working reasonably well‐cash transfers. It is worth noting that late in the year, food insecurity could also affect households living in some areas of Nampula province (districts of Angoche, Moma, Mongicual and Mossuril) and Zambezia province (Chinde, Mopeia, Morrumbala), where poor households will likely need assistance. Given better functionality of the markets in these areas, cash transfers are recommended from October or beyond to April 2010. A failure in activating a timely humanitarian intervention will cause poorer and very poor households to begin to employ extreme and negative coping strategies, including consumption of improper food on a large scale, such as wild foods. These wild foods are highly toxic with the possibility of causing health problems with the risk of death. Food security assessment in southern Tete province FEWS NET’s April‐September 2009 Food Security Outlook highlighted geographic areas that should be closely monitored throughout the consumption year, including the semi‐arid districts of southern Tete and northwest Gaza provinces. The previous FSU mentioned that in late 2008, these areas were moderately food insecure, a condition that resulted from protracted drought during the 2007/08 production season, and which was compounded by acute water shortages in semi‐ arid areas. Therefore, given the adverse agro‐climatic conditions during the 2008/09 production season in the same areas, there is some concern that similar conditions are likely to be found during the consumption period later in the year. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009 FEWS NET and the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) carried out a qualitative rapid food security assessment, from June 8‐13, in Mágoe, Cahora Bassa, Changara, and Mutarara districts in southern Tete Province (See Figure 2). Similarly to the previous assessment to Gaza province, this assessment consisted of key informant interviews with district administrative authorities, agriculture authorities, community leaders, farmers, and household representatives. The assessment also included observations from community visits. Assessment findings for the Figure 2. Districts (in orange) covered by the FEWS NET/INGC joint assessment, southern Tete province 8-10 June Figure 3, shows satellite rainfall ZAMBIA Mandimba distribution estimates in Mutarara Angonia ± Chifunde and Changara, two of the four visited Macanga districts in southern Tete province. Maravia Tsangano Mecanhelas Rains started late in December 2008 Zumbu when they normally are expected in TETE Chiuta MALAWI early November. During Cahora Bassa Magoe approximately two months, from Moatize mid December and beginning of Cidade de Tete February, the region has received Changara Milange adequate rains and expectations Mutarara were good among farmers and Guro Tambara agriculture authorities until early Morrumbala Chemba February when rains abruptly ceased ZAMBEZIA ZIMBABWE and were followed by a thirty days MANICA dry spell. As seen from the graphs, Caia Barue Macossa Maringue Mopeia 025 50 100 rains resumed in mid March and SOFALA Kilometers CheringomaMarromeu ceased at the end of April. Most Gorongosa households planted in mid‐ December so by the time rains Source: FEWS NET stopped most crops were in the flowering to soft dough stages. This is when the water requirement is at its maximum knowing that the growing cycle of the staple crop ranges from 90 to 120 days. As a result, most crops from the rain‐fed lands were lost. Exceptions include the lowlands where residual moisture sustained crops until maturity. Unfortunately those who have access to the lowlands are a minority. In addition, most productive lowland areas of Mágoe and Cahora Bassa districts for instance are massively populated by wild animals such as elephants, hippopotamus and wild boars. The proliferation of wild animals in the zone is the origin of the so‐called man‐wild fauna conflict. The man‐wild fauna conflict was mentioned to be a disaster in the region. Vast areas of planted lands are drastically devastated by elephants and hippopotamus. Only in Mágoe District, authorities estimate that nearly half of the maize planted in the lowlands for the 2008/09 agriculture season was lost due to elephants. Figure 3. Rainfall distribution in Mágoe and Mutarara districts in southern Tete province – Rainfall stopped early in January when most crops were at flowering and soft dough stages Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Update June 2009 Data source: USGS/FEWS NET Due to above indicated reasons, the overall food security conditions have