<<

A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— ’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 79

A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore? — China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration

Simon Teng-chi Chang

(Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University)

Abstract “Hide our light and bide our time” has been upheld as China’s foreign policy guideline for more than twenty years since it was outlined by shortly after the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident. Given the dramatically increased economic and military clout supported by double-digit annual growth, it is no doubt that China is qualified as a major power with global influence. During the reign of Jiang Zemin and , whether China should amend Deng’s teaching and stress more on “to accomplish something,” or to maintain a low profile has been a fiercely debated issue. Nevertheless, Jiang’s willingness to assume “responsibilities” in his “great power diplomacy” and Hu’s “harmonious world” policy formula generally led China on a “status quo” track.

This paper argues that policy disorder caused by territorial disputes in South and Seas and China’s unrefined “core interests” policy discourse, accompanied by the “rebalancing” and “pivot to Asia” strategies of America, gradually have led to China’s foreign 80 Prospect Journal No.9 policy change. To counterbalance Washington and its allies’ economic and military balancing and to redirect domestic discontent against inequality and corruption, the Xi-Li Administration will choose to actively assume the “responsibility” of being a great power, as pre- scribedbythe18th Party Congress Report. This time, however, the “responsibility” does not mean adherence to the established rules and order. Xi’s choice of his maiden foreign visit to Russia and South Africa (to attend the BRICS 5th Summit) and his speech are the best signs. Based on the hardcore idea of a “balance of power” and “The Third World,” Xi will be a candid and tough rival to the West, especially Japan and the .

Keywords: U.S.-China Relations, , Chinese Foreign Policy, Four-Frontier Strategy, New Model Great Power Relations

Keep cool-headed to observe, stand firmly, be composed to re- act, hide our capabilities and bide our time, never try to take the lead, and be able to accomplish something.

— Deng Xiaoping, 1989 (translated by the FY04 DoD Report on China)1

Qu Xing(曲星), the then Vice-Dean of the University of Diplomacy (Beijing) indicated that the 28-character strategy was first raised by Deng several months after the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989. The then Deputy Chief of Staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Gen. Xiong Guangkai(熊光楷)con- tended that the translation of “hide our capabilities” was too “narrow” to dem- onstrate Deng’s teaching. His suggestions instead was “hide our light” which echoed the usage of Fareed Zakaria’s book on the “Post-American World.” This paper adopts Zakaria and Xiong’s translation. Please refer to Zhai Hua,〈怎樣 善意地告訴外國人我們在“韜光養晦”?〉,《中國日報網》(), June 25, 2010, . A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 81

More than 150 years ago, Alexis de Tocqueville famously pre- dicted that the relationship between Russia and America would shape the destiny of the world. I suspect, if he had returned to earth as the new millennium dawned, he wouldn’t ignore Russia, but he would write first about China.

Madeleine Albright, 2003 2

I. Introduction The debates on the “rise of China” have caught the attention of both Chinese and Western foreign policy watchers. Nevertheless, except for domestic consumption serving the legitimacy of the com- munist party, Chinese researchers were once highly cautious about the discourse of “China rising” and its policy implications.3

For example, in my interviews conducted in 2000 with 31 acade- mics and think-tank researchers affiliated with the Chinese foreign and security branches, six interviewees consistently renounced any notion of China as a great power. This attitude was confirmed by reputed Chinese scholars like Wang Jisi in 2004, who argued that outsiders more often than not exaggerated China’s power.4 As Secretary of State Albright foretold after leaving office, it will be America and China taking the driving seats of international politics in the new

Madeleine Albright, Madam Secretary: A Memoir (London: Macmillan & Co., 2003), p. 436. For example, please refer to Niu Jun(牛軍),〈“中國崛起”夢想與現實之間 的思考〉(China Rising: A Reflection between the Dream and the Reality),《國 際經濟評論》(International Economic Review) (Beijing), No. 6, November/ December 2003, pp. 45-47. Wang Jisi(王緝思)was among the interviewees in 2000 and is now the Dean of the College of International Relations at Beijing University. 82 Prospect Journal No.9 century. It was hard to imagine and claim that the PRC was not qualified as a “great power” with global influence when Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao started their second term in 2008, merely four years after Wang’s comments.

On the eve of Obama’s overhaul of foreign strategy, as the U.S. was trapped both by the costly Afghanistan and Iraq wars and the global financial crisis, Beijing’s Hu-Wen Administration enjoyed a period of more than six years of “opportunities for development.”5 Their “four-frontier strategy” ([relations with] great powers are critical, neighbors surrounding us are primary, developing countries are foundational, multilateral bodies are serviceable) revealed in 2004 was generally deemed successful. Confronted by several major do- mestic and external challenges, such as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), the unrest in and , and the global financial tsunami, the communist regime in Beijing stood steady and outdid the economies of Germany and Japan. The concept of the so-called “G2” was then forged, and unprecedented expectations were attributed to China, as were “responsibilities.”6 As a consequence, the debate about whether to insist on Deng’s doctrine of “hiding light” re- flamed, as nationalist critics from the Internet and Chinese colleges appeared so confident that Hu-Wen’s successful foreign line looked too submissive to defend China’s national interests.

For the financial burden and damage of national image caused by the war, please refer to John Simpson, “Assessing America’s ‘Imperial Adventure’ in Iraq,” BBC, August 31, 2010, . C. Fred Bergsten, “A Partnership of Equals: How Washington Should Respond to China’s Economic Challenge,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 4, July/August 2008, pp. 57-69. A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 83

Words like “assertive,” “arrogant,” and even “aggressive” are common in describing China’s foreign policy changes since mid-2010. From then, the wind turned against China. As public grievances over inequality and bureaucratic corruption have kept growing, endangering the legitimacy of the rule of the party, the Hu-Wen team had much less space for sophistication in foreign issues. More investment in the PLA and tougher measures towards neighbors in territorial disputes seemed the only remaining options. Two superpowers seemed no longer able to inhabit the spacious Pacific Ocean. This challenging picture was what Hu Jintao left for Xi Jinping.

Based on the perceptions offered, this article will try to elaborate on how the Xi-Li administration will continue/reformulate Deng’s teaching and Hu-Wen’s four-frontier strategy, accordingly. It will briefly examine the challenges Beijing is facing, mainly introduced by Washington’s “rebalancing” and “pivot to Asia,” and the resulting Chinese policy stiffness in disputes over the Sea and . This paper next contemplates the possible ingredients of Xi’s “new model of great power relations,” mainly addressing the U.S., but drawing support from its overall foreign policy towards neighboring countries, developing countries, as well as multilateral platforms, such as the BRICS. It concludes with a forecast of China’s foreign policy trend in the near future.

II. America’s Strategy of “Rebalancing” and Its Impact on China 1. U.S. Rebalancing: hold the growing Chinese influence in check Washington’s “rebalancing” strategy is widely believed to exist to check China’s growing power and influence in Asia. This strategy is an ongoing event, so its full composition is still in the making. Nevertheless, given several clarifications offered by senior U.S. policy 84 Prospect Journal No.9 makers on the object of how to be “rebalanced,” I maintain that the rising China is squarely at the center. It was not a coincidence for Washington to rapidly reduce its military presence in the Afghan- Iraq theater and start to “pivot to Asia.” Like Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes elaborated, the “pivot” was made possible by the winding-down of the “two wars,” allowing more focus on “the fastest-growing economic region in the world.”7 As a commentary by put it, “As [the] U.S. looks to Asia, it sees China everywhere.”8

The Obama administration, from the moment of assuming office, has taken Asia seriously. After Obama briefly unveiled the idea of “back to Asia” in the 2009 Bali Summit of APEC, identifying himself as the first “Asia-Pacific President,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated and reinforced the idea in Hawaii less than two months later. Her remark sounded firm and solemn: “So I don’t think there is any doubt, if there were when this administration began, that the United States is back in Asia. But I want to underscore that we are back to stay.”9 Most observers were skeptical of this policy change then, and some even pessimistically concluded that the U.S. had lost Asia for- ever.10 The decision makers at the White House were resolute, never-

George E. Condon Jr., “Obama Ends Remarkable Summit Run With ‘Pivot’ to Asia,” NationalJournal, November 11, 2011, . Ian Johnson & Jackie Calmes, “As U.S. Looks to Asia, It Sees China Everywhere,” The New York Times, November 15, 2011, . Hillary R. Clinton, “Remarks on Regional Architecture in Asia: Principles and Priorities,” U.S. Department of State, January 12, 2010, . A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 85 theless. Following the geographic conception of its global strategy, the admini-stration enriched it further with diplomatic as well as military initiatives. Hillary Clinton’s “forward deployed diplomacy” and Leon Panetta’s “rebalancing” were the most critical of these.

There are several salient military and diplomatic measures that exemplify the vigorous nature of America’s “rebalancing” China strategy, which this paper will address next.

2. U.S. Military and diplomatic rebalancing First of all, the future reconfiguration of U.S. Naval assets from a 50-50 split between the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific to a 40-60 formula (60 to the Asia-Pacificregion)isaclearsignal.

Ostensibly, this is because the total military budget of all Asian nations has surpassed that of Europe. Therefore, “the United States military is rebalancing and bringing enhanced capability development to this vital region,”11 as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said last June in Singapore. Nevertheless, the fastest growing defense spending in the region over the last decade has been by China. Following the speech given to the annual meeting of Asian defense ministers, Panetta started a tour of another three key nations surrounding China: Vietnam, , and Afghanistan. Two months after the tour came the Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC 2012), a multinational sea-control and power-projection drill in which 22 countries’ navies, including Russia, Burma, and Vietnam, were invited, with only two East Asian excep- tions: China and North Korea. The drill, initiated in 1971 and targeting

Evan A. Feigenbaum, “Why America No Longer Gets Asia?” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 2, Spring 2011, pp. 25-43. Leon E. Panetta, “Shangri-La Security Dialogue,” U.S. Department of Defense, June 2, 2012, . 86 Prospect Journal No.9 the Soviet Union for two decades, set a new record number of parti- cipants (which previously had been 14 countries in 2010). According to state-owned Chinese media, nearly 80 military drills were held in the Asia-Pacific region in 2012, with half of these being led by the U.S.12 From the Chinese perspective, those naval activities mainly have China in mind.

Second, America’s “forward deployed diplomacy” is another strike back after years of China’s fruitful “good neighbor policy” and “charm offensive” in the region.13 Empowered by its fast and steady economic growth, China was not only becoming the top trading partner of its neighboring countries, but also its investments on raw material mining and infrastructure construction were outdoing Western democracies. With newly winning economic clout, China was able to persuade some of its neighbors, as well as nations in the developing world, not to side with the West on issues like human rights, Tibet, and Taiwan. Meanwhile, Beijing prudently sealed its antagonistic revolutionary mode and switched to a new theory of the “peaceful rise,” seeking to project itself as a friendly, non-intervening power.14 As result, the U.S. seemed not the only one with the advantage of championing “values” and “norms” locally and globally.

Zang Jingya, “2012 Rim of the Pacific Exercise Joint Military Drill Held,” cctv.com, June 29, 2012, . For examples and evaluations of China’s achievement, please refer to Joshua Kurlantzick, Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power Is Transforming the World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2007); Joseph S. Nye, “The Rise of China’s Soft Power,” HARVARD Kennedy School, December 29, 2005, . For sample discourse please refer to Zheng Bijian “China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ to Great-Power Status,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, No. 5, September/October 2005, pp. 18-25. A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 87

The best demonstration of “forward deployed diplomacy” came shortly after Panetta’s Asian Tour. Secretary Clinton’s sweeping nine- nation trip in July of 2012 is a classic example. Clinton made three stops in the Middle East and Europe, with the remaining six being China’s key neighbors: Afghanistan, Japan, Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. In the course of her travels, Secretary Clinton pro- claimed that “support for democracy and human rights” was at the heart of American strategy. She also told reporters in Mongolia the essence of the trip beyond democracy and rights: “My trip reflects a strategic priority of American foreign policy today.” “After ten years in which we focused a great deal of attention on the conflicts in Af- ghanistan and Iraq, the United States is making substantially increased investments — diplomatic, economic, strategic and otherwise — in this part of the world. It’s what we call our pivot toward Asia.”15

There was not a single word about China in all open remarks. Nevertheless, Washington successfully encouraged Mongolia’s “Third Neighbor Diplomacy” (distancing from Russia and China’s over- whelming influences), reassuring the shaky Yoshihiko Noda cabinet in Japan as the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Islands dispute was escalating, and reopened high-level exchanges with the communist-ruled inland Laos, the first after John Foster Dulles’s 1955 visit.

The most prominent part in Clinton’s itinerary was her tour to Hanoi, where iron-fisted communist rule was not an obstacle to specific U.S.-Vietnamese cooperation. The Chinese clearly remembered the USS George Washington made a historical visit to Vietnam’s waters in August of 2011.16 This time, as Clinton voiced concerns over Hanoi’s “peaceful expression of ideas” and detention of bloggers,

“US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Historic Laos Visit,” BBC, July 11, 2012, . 88 Prospect Journal No.9 the U.S. agreed to provide Hanoi with “non-lethal military equipment.” As the two nations’ trade hit a record high of US$22 billion, new cooperation deals in areas like education, business, public health and “maritime security” were also concluded.17

3. Origins of China’s foreign policy disorder: shedding light over “core interests” No matter to what extent the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” is aimed at containing Chinese economic, political, and military influence through a comprehensive military and trading encirclement, its success so far cannot solely be attributed to Washington’s well- organized strategy. I argue that one major policy problem for Beijing developed in late 2009 and early 2010 that played into America’s hands. Accidental events further worsened Beijing’s geopolitical standing thereafter.

The policy problem was a gradual re-adjustment of the proportion

As the flagship of the GWCSG (George Washington Carrier Striking Group), it offered another on-board tour to “distinguished” Vietnamese guests in mid- October 2012. At receiving, Captain Carlos Sardiello welcomed visitors by saying: “We are partnered with all nations with the intention to work together to provide maritime security for the world.” Please refer to Tatiana Avery, “Viet- namese Distinguished Visitors Tour George Washington,” America’s Navy,Oc- tober 20, 2012, . For Secretary Clinton’s criticism on Vietnamese rights issue, please refer to Arshad Mohammed, “Clinton raps Vietnam on rights, sees limits to ties,” Reuters, July 10, 2012, ; For analysis of the visit, please refer to Simon Teng-Chi Chang,〈希拉蕊訪問大陸周邊國家戰略意涵:攻勢現實主義的分 析〉(Strategic Implications for the US Stafe Secretary Hillary Clinton Visiting China’s Neighbouring Countries: An Offensive Realism Perspective),《展望與探索月 刊》(Prospect & Exploration) (Taipei),Vol. 10, No. 8, August 2012, pp. 11-16. A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 89 between Deng’s “hiding light”(taoguan yanghui, 韜光養晦)and “being able to accomplish something”(yousuozuowei, 有所作為) teachings. This re-adjustment could be dated to Jiang Zemin’s “great power diplomacy” in late 1990s, where Jiang meant to strengthen China’s role and identity as a “great power,” which could be recognized at home and abroad. For this reason, Beijing reassured the ASEAN countries after the 1997 Asian financial crisis that China would be “responsible” and not depreciate its currency. Discourses relating to “responsibility” appeared in key bilateral diplomatic documents or remarks like the 1997 Sino-Russian Joint Statement. Nevertheless, the role and identity of “responsible great power for China” was, and always has been, problematic not only because of who depicted and defined the “responsibility,” but also because how much China was qualified as a “great” power.18

As China’s size of economy and public complaints on inequality and corruption grew simultaneously, the above re-adjustment went into a different, risky track. Failing to adopt more far-reaching political and economic reform, ruling elites of the communist party became vulnerable and lost room to manipulate diplomacy flexibly. This subtle change, I argue, explains the increasing stubbornness when China was dealing with islands disputes with neighbors, first with nations in the and followed by Japan.

At the center of such policy stubbornness was the idea that the South China Sea belongs to China’s “core interests,” an informal comment in private conversations with top American diplomats that

For detailed discussion on such ambivalence, please refer to Simon Teng-chi Chang,《建構中國:不確定世界中的大國定位與大國外交》(Writing China: Identity Formation and Big Power Diplomacy) (Taipei: Yang-Chih Book Co., 2003), pp. 73-81. 90 Prospect Journal No.9 was leaked by a Japanese source in early 2010. It claimed American officials had confirmed one or more Chinese diplomats had labeled the South China Sea a “core interest.”19 Debates about whether Beijing would place the Spratly Islands on par with other sovereignty issues that could justify military intervention, like Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang, intensified as a result. This created grave concerns in countries having territorial disputes with China. The concerned nations had temporarily settled the issues through the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, a milestone of China’s once popular “good neighbor policy.”20 Then, China seemed to show a very different face to its neighbors, fast losing patience in an in- creasingly tense confrontation over rival claims to the resource-rich waters. The result was widespread suspicion that a rising China had been simply biding its time and would face them down when its leverage was formidable.

As Kerry Brown from the Chatham House observed, “China is becoming much more confident in the region and there are signs it is becoming giddy with success. It has become much more influential much more quickly than it expected.”21 One also can find provocative

〈中國視南海為核心利益 美嚴拒〉(China Considered South China Sea ‘Core Interest,’ Rebuffed by the U.S.),《中時電子報》(China Times), November 10, 2010, . This report said Hillary Clinton herself told The Australian that Chinese officials contended the South China Sea belonged to China’s “core interests” in the annual U.S.- China S&ED dialogue earlier this year. Please also refer to Edward Wong, “China Hedges Over Whether South China Sea Is a ‘Core Interest’ Worth War,” The New York Times, March 30, 2011, . Edward Wong, “China Hedges Over Whether South China Sea Is a ‘Core Interest’ Worth War.” Charles Scanlon, “South China Sea tensions rattle China’s neighbours,” BBC, A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 91 editorials in state-run Chinese papers saying, “If these countries do not want to change their ways with China, they will need to prepare for the sound of cannons. It may be the only way for the dispute in the sea to be resolved.”22 Adding the fact that China chose to side with Pyongyang’s Kim regime in the “Cheonan Sinking” incident and the bombardment of South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, China pushed frightened traditional U.S. allies, such as Japan and South Korea, back into Washington’s fold. The Chinese blockade of the Huangyan/Scarborough Shoal and aggressive patrolling over the Japan-controlled Diaoyu Islands in 2012 only reinforced Tokyo and Manila’s support of more U.S. involvement, further undermining twenty years of Beijing’s “charm diplomacy”. It soundly justified Panetta’s call for “maintaining and strengthening a system of rules and norms and institutions in Asia.”23

III. “New Model” of Great Power Relations: Xi-Li’s Choices and Challenges 1. From Hu’s “peaceful rise” to Xi’s “great renaissance” The 16th CPC Congress in 2002, when Hu Jintao assumed the party leadership, outlined the grand strategy of China: “taking ad- vantage of the 20-year period of strategic opportunity to concentrate on domestic priorities, and then build a moderately prosperous, de- velopment-sustainable society in an all round way.”24 In order to

November 4, 2011, . Charles Scanlon, “South China Sea tensions rattle China’s neighbours.” Leon E. Panetta, “Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta Holds a Press Briefing En Route to Tokyo,” (news transcript), U.S. Department of Defense, September 15, 2012, . The report, a result of China’s “” of the communist party, was read by the outgoing General Secretary Jiang Zemin. Please refer to “Full Text of Jiang Zemin’s Report at 16th Party Congress,” china.org.cn, November 92 Prospect Journal No.9 achieve this aim, a peaceful international environment was required, which would in turn enhance “peace and development” globally. Hence, the Chinese pledged to adhere to an “independent foreign policy of peace,” which claimed that China had not kept and would never enter any form of alliance.25 A rising China’s foreign policy would “never go for expansion, nor would it ever seek hegemony.”

Few students of diplomacy would buy such Chinese propaganda; but whether to challenge the American hegemon and by which means remained debatable. Hardnosed realists, like John J. Mearsheimer, contend that China will conduct and is implementing a hard-balancing strategy against the U.S. It is a natural and destined logic for “great powers,” like what America had done to the Western Hemisphere in the 19th century.26 Nevertheless, more believe that the Chinese, and perhaps some other great powers during the term of the younger Bush, chose to do “soft balancing” by means like multilateral bargaining and temporary coalitions to constrain the U.S. power.27 My observation echoes the “soft-balancing” argument, not only due to Hu’s awareness of China’s power lag behind the U.S., but also due to his and Wen’s mild style and fragile leadership.

For example, Hu did not take control of the PLA immediately

17, 2002, . The so-called “Independent and Peaceful Foreign Policy” was first announced in the statement of the 12th Party Congress of China in 1982. Chinese scholars believe that, since then, China has kept “equal-distance” relations with the U.S. and the Soviet Union. John J. Mearsheimer, “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia,” The Chinese Journal of International Politics,Vol.3,Issue4,Winter 2010, pp. 381-396. Robert A. Pape, “Soft Balancing against the United States,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1, Summer 2005, pp. 7-45. A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 93 after the 2002 party congress. Even after his predecessor, President Jiang Zemin, quit the all-mighty Central Military Committee in Sep- tember 2004, the rumor about a Hu-Jiang struggle was widespread for the following years. In comparison, Xi assumed all three powerful posts endorsed by the 2012 party congress and 2013 National People’s Congress in less than half a year. As a descendant of the PLA’s top brass and a victim of the Great , Xi enjoyed much more blessing in the party’s leaders on the road to the summit. For these reasons, Xi appears confident and affable, or in Panetta’s words, “frank and candid.”28

The 18th Party Congress report represents to a fair degree the agenda to be achieved by the Xi-Li administration. In the sections covering world politics and foreign policy, the report frankly recognized “increasing hegemonism, power politics and neo-interventionism.”29 It further condemned the “law of the jungle” and “arbitrary use of force,”30 strong words not found in the previous two party congress reports coordinated by Jiang and Hu. Clearly, America’s pivot back to Asia was blamed without being named.

Faced with pressing challenges like “increasing hegemonism,” Xi’s public speeches on China’s goal and the party’s mission were also frank, brief, and bold, a sharp contrast to Hu Jintao, who rarely spoke language other than socialist jargon. “Peaceful rise,” at least

Karen Parrish, “Panetta Calls Beijing Meetings ‘Substantive, Productive’,” U.S. DepartmentofDefense, September 20, 2012, . “Full text of Hu Jintao’s report at 18th Party Congress,” Xinhuanet, November 17, 2012, . “Full text of Hu Jintao’s report at 18th Party Congress.” 94 Prospect Journal No.9

China’s rise, is beyond doubt. The party now pledges to “complete” the building of “a moderately prosperous society” by 2020, which means the per capita Chinese income may reach $12,000 and the Chinese GDP may overtake the U.S.31 On other occasions, Xi outlined the concept of “Chinese Dream” and rallying support for “the great renaissance of the Chinese nation.”32 With America’s “rebalancing” and China’s goal of “great renaissance” in mind, I argue the Xi-Li administration will gradually move beyond the “hiding light” strategy and soft balancing measures. One signal is the 18th Party Congress endorsing the foreign policy concept of “a responsible great power” for the first time.33 TheideaforChinatobea“responsiblepower” was not simply coined by Western neoliberalists, it also echoed Jiang Zemin’s international “partnership building” engineering in the late 1990s. Nevertheless, opponents of the idea in the party claimed it was against Deng’s “hiding light” and “not to take lead” dictums. In this sense, China’s “great renaissance,” for Xi and his followers, is marching from “hiding light” to “accomplishing” the “China’s Dream.”

2. The U.S.-Chinese “Trust Deficit” Xi’s China Dream does not necessarily mean a direct confrontation with America’s rebalancing. The “dream,” for its realization, still re- quires China to nourish well-balanced relations with developed demo-

The timetable of “completing” such a goal has never been directly mentioned in previous party documents. The personal income estimation was made by Lin Yifu, former Vice President of the World Bank. Please refer to〈林毅夫:2020 年中國人均收入超 7 萬元〉,《新華網》(Xinhuanet), March 5, 2013, . David Cohen, “Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream,” The Diplomat, December 7, 2012, . The Chinese media translate the wording as “play its due role of a major country,” to avoid the words of “great” and “power” for ideological reasons. A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 95 cracies and developing countries, as well as the various multilateral frameworks already cultivated by Hu and Wen. In the last year of Hu’s reign, for example, Xi repeated his support for forging a “new model of great power relations” in his official visit to Washington. While the ceremonial arrangements for honoring Xi’s Washington tour should meet his taste, the message the U.S. sent to him was mixed, implying that the difficulties between the two powers would never be easy to tackle. Meanwhile, the Obama Administration needed to avoid being painted as a “panda hugger” by the Republicans during the election year. As for Mr. Xi, he needed to avoid any missteps that could jeopardize his succession to the presidency. Since the do- mestic audience was more important, both parties tended to demonstrate firmness. Therefore, Xi repeatedly reiterated that China respected and welcomed the continuing presence of the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region, but Washington should “conduct positive interactions” and respect the “core interests and major concerns” of China. Nevertheless, most foreign observers felt the Chinese, at least most policy elites and the general public, were confident and complacent enough to come to the conclusion that the global balance had changed, and it had been changing in a way that favors China. Not surprisingly, the response from Obama and Joe Biden to such candid “confidence” was “fairness” and “rules.” As Elizabeth Economy plausibly indicates, trust is only built over time. Xi’s U.S. visit might be frank and “con- structive,” but far too little to cure the “trust deficit” between the “rising power” and the “established power.”34

This is the backdrop of Xi’s “new model of great power relations,” which allowed little room for compromise in “core interests” issues.

Elizabeth Economy, “Xi’s Tour Won’t Fix the U.S.-Chinese Trust Deficit,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2012, . 96 Prospect Journal No.9

In the view of this author, Xi’s maiden overseas tour destinations after taking office were picked with the intent of warning Washington. The visited countries, including Russia and South Africa, are in good accordance with geopolitical thinking and traditional Chinese “Third World” ideology. Such moves only further deepen the U.S.-China “trust deficit.”

In addition to the remaining dead-lock issues like the undervalued RMB and vague positions of America over island disputes in the East and South China Sea, another fierce round of mutual accusations on internet hacking and cyber-attacks is getting fiery. Details of a cyber-war against prominent U.S. international businesses and organi- zations by the PLA was revealed by members of the U.S. administration since Obama began his first term, as some Western media have long and regularly depicted China as the villain behind the scenes.35 The latest case of such violations was the so-called “headquarters of P.L.A. Unit 61398” or the “Shanghai Group” of cyber warriors res- ponsible for hacking, alleged by a U.S. based internet security firm but strongly denied by China’s foreign ministry.36

As a response, Beijing said China was also the victim of this kind of espionage. Linking China to internet hacking attacks arbitrarily was “irresponsible.” State-owned Chinese media further argued there was an American conspiracy of demonizing China in order to justify

Nick Hopkins, “US and China engage in cyber war games,” The Guardian, April 16, 2012, . David E. Sanger, David Barboza, & Nicole Perlroth, “Chinese Army Unit Is Seen as Tied to Hacking Against U.S.,” The New York Times, February 18, 2013, . A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 97 a possible “pre-emptive cyber strike.” It also quoted American sources saying that 13 of 40 formal units of the “USCYBERCOM” (United States Cyber Command) have been commissioned to prepare cyber offensives. Its cyber warriors, sometimes working with Israel, had deployed malicious software to attack foreign targets.37

In this author’s view, most of the accusations above are difficult to verify, as internet insurgencies are becoming extremely irregular. For the same reason, unconfirmed cyber disruptions targeting one another will be one of the most destructive accelerators to the falling U.S.-China mutual trust.

3. Old comrade, new leverage: Russia plus the BRICS The countermeasure of the Xi-Li administration to deal with Washington’s “rebalancing” and a downward Sino-U.S. relations prospect was to revive China’s traditional strategies dating back to the Cold War era. Two traditional Chinese counterweights against foreign economic/military containment were the Soviet Union and the Third World. Moscow’s nationalist elites have long been discontent with the reluctant economic support from the West and their active involvement in various “color revolutions,” aiming to further break up Russia. In a word, both China and Russia shared a fear of being marginalized and eliminated by “a unipolar world”. This trend from the end of the Cold War explains consecutive Russo-Chinese joint statements calling for “multipolarization” and “a just political and economic world order.”

Ren Haijung,〈美國“網絡擴軍”令人憂〉(U.S. Cyber Militarism is Worrisome), 《新華網》(Xinhuanet), March 19, 2013, . 98 Prospect Journal No.9

Meanwhile, although the ideology of the “Third World” seems not stylish and appealing today, countries from the “rising markets” do share similar ideas about amending the rules of international trade and finance. The growing diversity of issues of global governance, like international terrorism and climate change, provides new forums for those embracing various “revisionist” ideas. The so-called BRICS is such a platform that is evolving into a tangible organizational force pooling together renewed elements traditionally embedded in “the Third World” conception. Accordingly, the Xi-Li administration will strive to inject new vigor into the Sino-Russian relations and exploit the BRICS forum to break out the emerging net of containment from China’s east.

China’s history of dramatizing its “friendship” with the Russians is not news. Xi’s first stop on his maiden overseas visit further verifies this. To maximize the effect, Xi stressed that the two countries are each other’s “most important strategic cooperative partner,” deter- mining to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership in their foreign policy. In this way, Beijing and Moscow now find common ground as they each seek to claim a place as a “respected great power.”38

Furthermore, Xi’s joint statement with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, celebrates their relations, which have reached an un- precedented high level, “set a good example for the harmonious co-

“China’s new president wraps up visit to Russia,” Xinhuanet, March 24, 2013, ; David M. Herszenhorn & Chris Buckley, “China’s Leader Argues for Cooperation With Russia,” The New York Times, March 23, 2013, . A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 99 existence between the great powers.” This is because the two powers “support to each other in the ‘core interests’ involved in each other’s sovereignty,” oppose “unlimited anti-missile strategy” at the expense of other countries, observe the “indivisible principles of security architecture” in the Asian-Pacific region, and reject “zero-sum game and bloc politics” way of thinking.39 In this regard, the original idea about the “new model of great power relations” solely designed to amend U.S.-China ties has been partly abandoned. In contrast, Xi insisted in a speech given to the Moscow State Institute of International Relations that “no country or bloc of countries can again single- handedly dominate world affairs.”40 Surely, the United States was the “dominator,” only not mentioned by name. A classic balance of power, not a “new model” of great power relations is in charge now. Therefore, Xi declares China’s partnership with Russia is a reliable guarantee of an “international strategic balance.”41

Last, the BRICS bloc has not yet evolved into the powerful anti- West body that some observers foresaw. This is partially due to worries in India and Russia that China’s economic strength could overwhelm the bloc. For example, there are reports that claim that the currency reserve the BRICS plans to establish would be heavily

“Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the win-win cooperation and deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation,” Comprehensive News, March 23, 2013, . David M. Herszenhorn & Chris Buckley, “China’s Leader Argues for Cooperation with Russia.” Vladimir Soldatkin, “In Moscow, new Chinese leader Xi warns against meddling,” Reuters, March 23, 2013, . 100 Prospect Journal No.9 financed by China (41% of its assets). China is after all the world’s second-largest economy.42 For the West, however, there is a sense the BRICS may be fortified as a group in the future — a long-term threat to the established world financial order crafted principally by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).43 It is now at least a loose coalition for convenience, as China is willing to contribute more financially and others can offer China rhetorical and discoursive support in return. In issue areas like emissions, in- ternational finance, and debts, the bloc also provides a forum justifying their cause of “improving global economic governance,” as President Putin expected. Among the new initiatives is the “BRICS Development Bank,” which mainly will be responsible for sponsoring infrastructure projects in the five nations.44 This, which is a concrete move based on the ideology of Dependency Theory (once diminished in the 1990s as the “Washington Consensus” was hailed as an all-around victory), may be launched for the first time.

IV. Conclusion For Chinese foreign policy today, Hu Jintao’s “four-frontier strategy” ([relations with] great powers are critical, neighbors sur-

So, Graham Allison argues that it is more appropriate to consider China separately from other BRICS, which, “if an acronym is called for, can be called: ‘RIBS’.” Please refer to Graham Allison, “China Doesn’t Belong in the BRICS,” The Atlantic, March 26, 2013,

In order to compensate for the breaks in two of the four frontiers, the Xi-Li administration strives to draw support from the other two:

Thom Shanker, “U.S. Won’t Become Isolationist, Gates Tells Worried Asian Leaders,” The New York Times, June 3, 2011, . 102 Prospect Journal No.9

“friends” with shared discontent of the West in the developing world and certain multilateral forums, like the Forum on China-Africa Co- operation (FOCAC) and the BRICS summits, where Beijing enjoys a shaping force. Besides, Beijing has re-oriented its “new model of great power relations” previously addressing U.S.-China relations. The relations with old comrade Russians are invigorated again. As a consequence, Deng’s teaching of “hiding light” is yielding to Xi’s newly interpreted “responsible great power” diplomacy confirmed in the 18th Congress of the Communist Party. Differing from the concept of “responsibility” proposed by Jiang Zemin in the late 1990s, Xi’s version is based on “Sino-Russian partnership” and the BRICS bloc, responsible for pursuing “democratic international relations” and a “just international political and economic new order.” This is indeed a candid and frank response to an emerging economic and military network of “rebalancing” China designed by America.

Indeed, for the Chinese, relations with the U.S. remain the most crucial for supporting its continuing economic growth and the ful- fillment of Xi-Li’s “Chinese Dream.” To trigger a showdown with the U.S. in any “asymmetric way” makes no sense. It serves no one’s interests in the all-mighty elites of the Communist Party. Xi Jinping had described the unprecedented U.S.-China great-power stalemate as “a surging river that could not be stopped.”46 The way out of this trap is a practical consensus: “When confronted by mountains, one finds a way through. When blocked by a river, one finds a way to bridge to the other side.” His comments echoed Biden’s words, “we are not going to see eye to eye.”47 Nevertheless, given the growing

“China’s Xi Jinping calls for ‘deep’ US-China ties,” BBC, February 15, 2012, . “President Obama hosts China Vice-President Xi Jinping,” BBC, February 15, 2012, . A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 103

“trust deficit,” Xi is only on a long march to China’s own “rebalancing.” For the rising and the established superpowers, it is a competition of strategic patience. 104 Prospect Journal No.9

References

Chinese Books Chang, Simon Teng-chi, 2003. 《建構中國:不確定世界中的大國 定位與大國外交》(Writing China: Identity Formation and Big Power Diplomacy). Taipei: Yang-Chih Book Co..

Journal Articles Chang, Simon Teng-Chi, 2012/8.〈希拉蕊訪問大陸周邊國家戰略 意涵:攻勢現實主義的分析〉(Strategic Implications for ths US Stafe Secretary Hillary Clinton Visiting China’s Neighbouring Countries: An Offensive Realism Perspective),《展望與探索月 刊》(Prospect & Exploration) (Taipei),Vol. 10, No. 8, pp. 11-16. Niu, Jun, 2003/11-12.〈“中國崛起”夢想與現實之間的思考〉(China Rising: A Reflection between the Dream and the Reality),《國 際經濟評論》(International Economic Review) (Beijing), No. 6, pp. 45-47.

Online Resources 2010/11/10.〈中國視南海為核心利益 美嚴拒〉(China Considered South China Sea ‘Core Interest,’ Rebuffed by the U.S.),《中時 電子報》(China Times), . 2013/3/5. 〈林毅夫:2020 年中國人均收入超 7 萬元〉,《新華網》 (Xinhuanet), . Ren, Haijung, 2013/3/19.〈美國“網絡擴軍”令人憂〉(U.S. Cyber Militarism is Worrisome),《新華網》(Xinhuanet), . A “Responsible Great Power” Not Hiding Light Anymore?— China’s Foreign Policy after the Xi-Li Administration’s Inauguration 105

Zhai, Hua, 2010/6/25.〈怎樣善意地告訴外國人我們在“韜光養 晦”?〉,《中國日報網》(China Daily), .

English Books Albright, Madeleine, 2003. Madam Secretary: A Memoir. London: Macmillan & Co.. Kurlantzick, Joshua, 2007. Charm Offensive: How China’s Soft Power Is Transforming the World. New Haven: Yale University Press.

Journal Articles Bergsten, C. Fred, 2008/7-8. “A Partnership of Equals: How Washing- ton Should Respond to China’s Economic Challenge,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 87, No. 4, pp. 57-69. Feigenbaum, Evan A., 2011/Spring. “Why America No Longer Gets Asia?” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 25-43. Mearsheimer, John J., 2010/Winter. “The Gathering Storm: China’s Challenge to US Power in Asia,” The Chinese Journal of Inter- national Politics, Vol. 3, Issue 4, pp. 381-396. Pape, Robert A., 2005/Summer. “Soft Balancing against the United States,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 7-45. Zheng, Bijian 2005/9-10. “China’s ‘Peaceful Rise’ to Great-Power Status,” Foreign Affairs,Vol.84,No.5,pp.18-25.

Online Resources 2002/11/17. “Full Text of Jiang Zemin’s Report at 16th Party Congress,” china.org.cn, . 2012/2/15. “China’s Xi Jinping calls for ‘deep’ US-China ties,” BBC, . 2012/2/15. “President Obama hosts China Vice-President Xi Jinping,” 106 Prospect Journal No.9

BBC, . 2012/7/11. “US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Historic Laos Visit,” BBC, . 2012/11/17. “Full text of Hu Jintao’s report at 18th Party Congress,” Xinhuanet, . 2013/3/23. “Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the win-win cooperation and deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation,” Com- prehensive News, . 2013/3/24. “China’s new president wraps up visit to Russia,” Xinhuanet, Allison, Graham, 2013/3/26. “China Doesn’t Belong in the BRICS,” The Atlantic, . Avery, Tatiana, 2012/10/20. “Vietnamese Distinguished Visitors Tour George Washington,” America’s Navy, . Clinton, Hillary R., 2010/1/12. “Remarks on Regional Architecture in Asia: Principles and Priorities,” U.S. Department of State, . Cohen, David, 2012/12/7. “Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream,” The Diplomat, . Condon Jr., George E., 2011/11/11. “Obama Ends Remarkable Summit Run With ‘Pivot’ to Asia,” NationalJournal,

run-with-pivot-to-asia-20111111>. Economy, Elizabeth, 2012/2/15. “Xi’s Tour Won’t Fix the U.S.- Chinese Trust Deficit,” Foreign Affairs, . Herszenhorn, David M. & Chris Buckley, 2013/3/23. “China’s Leader Argues for Cooperation With Russia,” The New York Times, . Hopkins, Nick, 2012/4/16. “US and China engage in cyber war games,” The Guardian, . Johnson, Ian & Jackie Calmes, 2011/11/15. “As U.S. Looks to Asia, It Sees China Everywhere,” The New York Times, . Mohammed, Arshad, 2012/7/10. “Clinton raps Vietnam on rights, sees limits to ties,” Reuters, . Nye, Joseph S., 2005/12/29. “The Rise of China’s Soft Power,” HAR- VARD Kennedy School, . Panetta, Leon E., 2012/6/2. “Shangri-La Security Dialogue,” U.S. Department of Defense, . Panetta, Leon E., 2012/9/15. “Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta Holds a Press Briefing En Route to Tokyo,” (news transcript), U.S. Department of Defense, . Parrish, Karen, 2012/9/20. “Panetta Calls Beijing Meetings ‘Substan- tive, Productive’,” U.S. Department of Defense,

defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=117935>. Sanger, David E., David Barboza, & Nicole Perlroth, 2013/2/18. “Chinese Army Unit Is Seen as Tied to Hacking Against U.S.,” The New York Times, . Scanlon, Charles, 2011/11/4. “South China Sea tensions rattle China’s neighbours,” BBC, . Shanker, Thom, 2011/6/3. “U.S. Won’t Become Isolationist, Gates Tells Worried Asian Leaders,” The New York Times,. Simpson, John, 2010/8/31. “Assessing America’s ‘Imperial Adventure’ in Iraq,” BBC, . Soldatkin, Vladimir, 2013/3/23. “In Moscow, new Chinese leader Xi warns against meddling,” Reuters, . Tatlow, Didi K., 2013/3/28. “BRIC, BRICS or BRICSI? The Growing Challenge,” International Herald Tribune, . Wong, Edward, 2011/3/30. “China Hedges Over Whether South China SeaIsa‘CoreInterest’WorthWar,”The New York Times, . Zang, Jingya, 2012/6/29. “2012 Rim of the Pacific Exercise Joint Military Drill Held,” cctv.com, .