China's Glo.balInfluence: Perspe�tives and Recommendatio·ns China’s Global Influence: Perspectives and Recomendations Published in September 2019 by the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, 2058 Maluhia Rd, Honolulu, HI 96815 www.apcss.org For reprint permissions, contact the editors via [email protected] Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Scott D. McDonald, editor, Michael C. Burgoyne, editor Title: China’s Global Influence: Perspectives and Recommendations / McDonald, S. D., editor and Burgoyne, M.C, editor Subjects: China—Foreign Relations—21st century; China—Economic Policy—2000-; China—Politics and Government—2000- DS779.47 .C45 2019 ISBN: 978-0-9773246-5-1 The Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies is a US De- partment of Defense executive education institution that addresses regional and global security issues, inviting military and civilian representatives of the Unit- ed States and Indo-Pacific nations to its comprehensive program of resident courses and workshops, both in Hawaii and throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Through these events the Center provides a focal point where military, policy- makers, and civil society can gather to educate each other on regional issues, connect them with a network of committed individuals, and empower them- selves to enact cooperative solutions to the region’s security challenges. The Center’s publishing efforts support these efforts by distilling lessons learned from these events and broadcast them to the community of security practitio- ners working together for a more secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific. Table of Contents Introduction 5 Scott D. McDonald and Michael C. Burgoyne Part I: Strategic Context 1. 战略竞争?—Strategic Competition? 22 Scott D. McDonald 2. Xi’s Vision for Transforming Global Governance: A Strategic Challenge for Washington and Its Allies 38 Liza Tobin Part II: Regional Context 3. China’s Foreign Policy in the Indo-Pacific Region and US Interests 57 Dr. Sungmin Cho 4. China and South Asia 73 John H. Gill 5. Chinese Foreign Policy towards Russia and Eurasia 84 Dr. Graeme Herd 6. Chinese Relations with the Middle East and North Africa 98 Dr. Gawdat Bahgat 7. China in Africa: Opportunities, Challenges, and Options 105 Amb. Phillip Carter III, Dr. Raymond Gilpin, and Paul Nantulya 8. China and Europe 125 Dr. Valbona Zeneli 9. Understanding and Responding to Chinese Activities in Latin America and the Caribbean 142 Dr. R. Evan Ellis Part III: Tools of Influence 10. China’s Strategic Messaging: What It Is, How It Works, and How to Respond to It 160 Dr. Alexander L. Vuving 11. China’s Economic Coercion 174 Frank Mouritz 12. Understanding China’s Legal Gamesmanship in the Rules-Based Global Order 190 Jonathan G. Odom, J.D., LL.M. 13. China’s Military Diplomacy 207 Dr. Phillip C. Saunders and Jiunwei Shyy 14. Technology and Innovation in China’s Strategy and Global Influence 228 Elsa B. Kania Synthesis 249 Scott D. McDonald and Michael C. Burgoyne Author Biographies 257 Bibliography 263 Index 297 Introduction c 1 Scott D. M Donald and Michael C. Burgoyne 1 The views and recommendations expressed in this chapter are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or position of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, US Department of Defense, or US Government. 5 Introduction Over the last several years, thousands of books have been written on the rise and role of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Many of those were edited volumes, which sought to bring together scholars that could highlight their specific area of expertise or insight. This volume seeks to differentiate itself through leveraging one of the unique assets of the Department of Defense (DoD): the Regional Centers (RC). The geographic focus of these five RCs span the world and serve to bring together security practitioners to share experiences, build networks, and share tools and ideas for improving cooperative security. The efficacy of their executive education model has long been appreci- ated within the department, in the halls of Congress, across the regions, and by policymakers spanning the executive branch. One aspect of these Centers that is often overlooked, however, is the knowledge and insight of the faculty. The RCs are staffed by fac- ulty drawn from seasoned experts on the regions, and from across the regions they cover. They specialize in the full array of challenges fac- ing their regions and interact with security practitioners attending their courses on a routine basis. This mix of backgrounds and experiences provides the RCs with unique and valuable insights into the security chal- lenges facing the United States (US) and its partners around the world. With these strengths in mind, the directors of the RCs re- cently began an initiative to bring experts from the various RCs together to leverage their unique insights in understanding glob- al security challenges. In January 2019 the first result of this col- laboration was a workshop entitled “China’s Global Reach,” hosted by the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS) in Honolulu, Hawaii. However, the RCs wanted to do more than get together. They wanted to leverage their faculty to bring value to policymakers. The result is this volume. THE WORKSHOP In designing RC collaborative events, the focus was to tackle contemporary security challenges, leverage the varied perspectives of RC faculty, and provide not only insight, but useful policy recommendations to the US government. Consequently, for the first collaboration the RCs chose to examine activities of the PRC from the perspective of various regions to give context and clarity to PRC engagement throughout the world. To understand how these global activities impact the US, analysis was conducted within the context of the PRC’s perspective of its own foreign policy, as well as strategic competition, as referenced in the 2017 6 Scott D. McDonald and Michael C. Burgoyne National Security Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strategy. Additionally, experts in specific functional areas were brought in from the RCs and the broader policy community to look at regional and global engage- ment through the lens of specific foreign policy tools. The workshop leveraged the insights gained from this diverse expert input and small group discussions to formulate policy recommendations for pursuing state interests in the face of growing PRC assertiveness. These recom- mendations accepted that an interest-based approach would provide op- portunities for both competitive and cooperative strategies and tactics. Participants included academics and practitioners from the five RCs, USINDOPACOM, SOUTHCOM, AFRICOM, USINDOPACOM service components, the National Defense University, and the US Army War College. Other US Government participants came from the Depart- ment of State (DoS), Department of Treasury, and the Department of Energy. Five think tanks, including the Pacific Forum and the East-West Center, also sent participants. GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE The world has almost two hundred countries. There are seven continents. The DoS has six regional bureaus. The DoD has six Geo- graphic Combatant Commands (GCC), which do not align with the DoS’ regional bureaus. However, there are only five RCs. In constructing the workshop and finding chapter authors, the question of how to divide up the world was fraught with pitfalls. The manner in which the book divides the world most assuredly has its detractors, but choices had to be made. Ultimately, we attempted to group geographic areas primarily by the manner in which the PRC engages with them. Certainly, there were different choices that could have been made. For example, it is clear from the chapters by Valbona Zeneli and Frank Mouritz that the PRC uses multiple engagement strate- gies within Europe, however, each strategy is influenced by the role of the European Union (EU) and its intersection with the PRC’s engage- ment calculus. Consequently, non-Russian Europe has been treated as a single geographic entity, while Russia and Central Asia have been treated as another. Alternatively, the Indian subcontinent is split between two GCCs and, with the exception of Pakistan and Afghanistan, covered by two RCs. Meanwhile, the PRC interacts with the states of South Asia both uniquely and as part of its interaction with the broader Indo-Pacific region—though they decline to call it such. Therefore, the sub-region was given its own chapter, distinct from the rest of the regions covered 7 Introduction by both the Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies (NESA) and the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), even though some of the states are mentioned briefly in the Indo-Pacific chapter. The more one looks at the regions, the more one is tempted to sub-divide. For example, at DKI APCSS the Indo-Pacific is currently divided into five sub-regions (including the Americas), each of which could have warranted its own chapter. However, in a three-day work- shop or a book of this size, one quickly reaches a point of diminishing returns regarding what can usefully be said about a number of topics in the time and space provided. Consequently, geographic regions were formed around states in which the PRC appears to pursue roughly simi- lar ends in related ways, while avoiding the temptation to parse differ- ences and draw ever smaller circles. The result is seven geographical- ly-focused chapters that divide Africa, split four GCCs, and ignore the US and Canada. However, these chapters all draw from experts on the regions they study, and were informed by discussion and debate during the workshop. Moreover—and more importantly—the analysis in these chapters, when placed alongside each other, suggest that looking from the PRC perspective, there is a certain amount of logic to this approach.