The Metropolitan Economy

The MetropolitanEconomy www.cmm.qc.ca x x x x x x x x 1002, rue Sherbrooke Ouest, bureau 2400, Montréal (Québec), H3A 3L6 ƒ Montréal region investment inthe Portrait: Public except inhousing Prices cooloff, construction residential Surge in suburbs space inthe Surplus office industry the durablegoods Restructuring in and healthcare consumer services Growth in improves Participation rate South Shores the Northand up, especiallyon Employment picks 514.350.2550 | [email protected] stagnates investment Local public points. politan areaclimbedby3.4 percentage metro- Montréal inthe rate participation the sameperiodin2003, and 2000 of since late2000.Between the fourth quarter elsewhere, andhasbeenshowing strength iscatc labour market 62.8%. Montrealers’parti by 1.5 percentagepoints,to jumped rate Theparticipation jobmarket. the prompted manyofthemtotry their luck on however, thesurgein employment third andfourthquarters.Most important, from 10.0%to9.2%betweenthe dropped ment improved.Theunemployment rate Montrealers’ chancesoffindingemploy- onto thelabourmarket Montrealers flood again. blackout, and begangrowing power major recovered fromtheimpactofSARSand a America. TheToronto metropolitan area Employment isrising remained stable. industry andproducerservices goods in continued the durable as restructuring ness sectordeflatedsomew and healthcarespendingrose. The busi- 2.8%, asconsumersopenedtheirwallets in thefourthquarter.Itclimbedby speed its second wind,andpickedup got area employment intheMontréal metropolitan After anadjustmentearly in 2003, Upswing inemployment (CMM) atwww.cmm.qc.ca Economy Montréal, Laval,Longueuil,and theNorthandSouthShores. economic statisticsfortheMontr and thehighlightsofpastquarter.Th The MetropolitanEconomy ordinating andfinancingvariousmetropolitanactivities. close tohalf the populationofQuebec.Itisresponsibleforplanning,co- or residents, The CMMismadeupof63municipalitiesandhasapopulation3.4 million isavailableonthewebsite slightly acrossNorth hing up with levels hing upwith cipation on the . hat, however, givesaconcisedescriptionof short-term economic trends éal metropolitan areaanditsfivesectors,i.e. éal oftheCommunauté métropolitaine de Montréal e summarytablesattheendcontaincurrent 62 65 68 71 100 112 124 136 Source: Statistics Canada Participation rate %, seasonally adjusted Index, seasonallyIndex, adjusted, 1994=100 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment 49 69 89 00 203 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 49 69 89 00 203 02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 Toronto CMA The Metropolitan (CPS) and StatisticsCanada (LFS) Montréal CMA Quarterly Northeast U.S. States Canada Toronto United Montréal

4th quarter 2003 Volume 1, Number 3 The Metropolitan Economy

INDUSTRIES Employment by industry, Montréal CMA Consumer services pick up '000, seasonally adjusted Employment in the second half of 2003 was 350 supported by consumers and the parapub- Manufacturing lic sector. Consumer services grew by 13% in 24 months in the Montréal metropolitan 290 area, and trade by 21%. Even information Trade and recreation started to hire again, while 230

the restructuring in telecommunications N services that started in 2002 seemed to be 220 drawing to a close. Business services

In consumer services themselves, only 180 accommodation and food services were marking time. This industry, which in early 140 2003 recovered the jobs lost following the September 11, 2001 attacks, suffered its worst tourist season in 10 years last 100 summer. N

Health Surge in healthcare services 200 In the second half of 2003, hiring was up in the health and social assistance sector. Ac- 160 cording to Labour Force Survey estimates, employment there rose by 18% in the last 120 two quarters of 2003. Even social assis- Education tance services boosted employment levels 80

(+26% in six months), while the network of N daycare centres and healthcare for the eld- erly continued to grow. The current expan- 120 Finance, insurance, etc. sion has occurred as the provincial government is focusing on health. Spend- 100 ing on health, which was reduced between 1995 and 1999 in an effort to tidy up pro- 80 vincial public finances, has gradually recovered. Transportation and warehousing 60 Producer services still dragging N Employment in producer services sat just where it was a year and a half earlier, with Information, culture and recreation 100 the weaknesses concentrated in business services, where the workforce plummeted by 10%. The need for productivity gains 80 affected management services. Employ- ment in a number of professional services Accommodation and food services was shrinking, while computer services, the 60 main source of jobs in the 1990s, were 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 stable. Source: Statistics Canada

Transportation, which had recovered from the shock of September 2001, suffered a relapse in late 2003, brought on by the combination of declining exports and tour- In the fourth quarter, only financial services ism and the reorganization of Air Canada made headway, supported by a busy real- under bankruptcy protection. estate sector.

2 MANUFACTURING Employment, manufact., Montréal CMA Restructuring continues '000, seasonally adjusted in the durable goods industry 200 The durable goods industry has been losing Non-durable goods steam for over a year now. Employment fell off by 7% in the fourth quarter. The lack- lustre performance affected mainly machin- 160 ery, electrical and electronic products manufacturing. The rise in the dollar, from Durable goods 63 cents US to 74 cents US in the space of 120 six months, cut into the competitiveness of many Montréal exports. 80 After the bubble of 1999-2000, shipments of 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 communications equipment declined Source: Statistics Canada gradually. Nortel Networks announced plans to transfer almost all its remaining production activities to Flextronics, a Sin- gapore-based company. This transfer could affect 800 employees in Montréal. Shipments, durable goods¹ $ billion 1997, at annual rate, seasonally adj. 10 Demand for regional jets shifts Communications equipment to larger models In the aeronautics industry, the regional jets 7 segment weathered the storm best of all. Aircraft and parts The current crisis in aviation has laid the groundwork for the future expansion of the 4 regional transportation market, in fact, by forcing employees of US airlines to aban- don the size restrictions they had imposed 1 on the regional jets the airlines used. Re- 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 laxing these “scope clauses” is probably the 1. Quebec shipments for Montréal's major industries main factor underlying the recent recovery Source: Statistics Canada in regional transportation and its growing share in air transportation. Deliveries of air- craft continued to climb, but had yet to reach their pre-September 2001 peaks. Shipments, non-durable goods¹ $ billion 1997, at annual rate, seasonally adj. That being said, Quebec shipments were 18 far from their pre-September 2001 heights. Food and beverages Embraer, of Brazil, has developed an exten- 16 sive line of aircraft and is winning most new orders for large regional aircraft (70 to 100 14 seats). 12 N Employment in non-durable goods stable 9 On the other hand, in this turbulent period, employment in the non-durable goods Textile and clothing industry has been stable for a year and 6 even picked up in the fourth quarter. This turnaround could be seen most clearly in Pharmaceuticals the printing industry. Quebec shipments of food and beverages continued to keep pace 3 with population growth. Clothing shipments Printing remained down, falling by 22% in constant dollars since peaking in late 2000, although 0 employment there held steady. Shipments of pharmaceuticals have been declining for 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 4th quarter 2003 over a year. 1. Quebec shipments for Montréal's major industries Source: Statistics Canada 3 The Metropolitan Economy

REGIONAL SECTORS Employment rate Employment in Longueuil %, seasonally adjusted and on the North and South Shores 72 Job growth was particularly marked in the Longueuil, North suburbs. The employment rate in Longueuil and South Shores and on the North and South Shores, which 64 had slipped from 68.9% in the third quarter Laval of 2002 to 67% in the same period in 2003, jumped to 69.7% in the fourth quarter. Em- ployment fluctuated in the same fashion in 56 Montréal, but to a lesser extent. Montréal

The suburbs benefited from the upswing in consumer services, mainly located close to 48 the residents they serve. Growth in health- 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 care services, daycares and care for seniors Source: Statistics Canada also occurred near where customers live.

Unemployment insurance drops in Laval and on the North and South Shores 1 The social dependency indicator, which Social dependency indicator suddenly shot up on the North and South 1996Q3=100, seasonally adjusted Shores in the third quarter, dropped back just 74 as abruptly in the fourth quarter. In particular, the number of unemployment insurance claimants (regular, no earnings) fell by 13% Montréal on the North Shore. 66 Longueuil Fluctuations in the metropolitan labour mar- South Sh. ket, however, had hardly any effect at all on 58 welfare recipients. The number of people on Laval welfare had been falling almost continually in the metropolitan area. Only in Laval had the North Sh. number of welfare recipients climbed since 50 spring 2003. 00 01 02 03 Sources: Statistics Canada and Emploi, Solidarité sociale Drop in demand for office space et Famille - Québec in the suburbs The vacancy rate for office space is one of the few sub-regional indicators available for business. It has climbed throughout the metropolitan area since 2001. The increase Office vacancy rates was particularly strong in Longueuil, which % formerly had a lower-than-average vacancy 27 rate. The vacancy rate climbed from 12.3% to 20.6% in three years. Longueuil 20 Laval and Montréal had similar vacancy Montréal rates, of 13.8%, in late 2003. However, with the final phases of the Cité Multimédia, the Caisse de dépôt et placement tower and the 13 first phases of E-Commerce Place all arriv- ing on the market, combined with the drop- Laval off in high-tech firms, the vacancy rate in 6 Montréal has been climbing since late 2001. 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 The market for office space in Laval didn’t Sources: CB Richard Ellis and Desjarlais Prévost start deteriorating until the end of 2002.

4 1. 100 × (regular unemployment insurance recipients with no earnings and adult welfare recipients with no REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION

Surge in residential construction… Building permits, Montréal CMA Driven by housing starts, construction con- $ billion, at annual rate, seasonally adjusted tinued to grow strongly. The value of 4.5 building permits was up by 10% in current Residential dollars in the fourth quarter, owing entirely to housing. The value of residential building 3.0 permits shot up by two-thirds in the third and four quarters of 2003. 1.5 Construction increased more in the sub- Non re- urbs, because they specialize in residential sidential functions. Even so, the value of residential building permits in Montréal soared by 79% 0.0 in comparison with the previous year. 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Source: Statistics Canada …with effects on rental housing and condos The sudden increase in construction, which had previously benefited all residential markets, was felt mainly in the rental and Housing construction and sales condo markets in 2003. A tight market Montréal CMA stimulated construction of rental housing. '000, at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 60 The vacancy rate for rental housing has SIA/MLS sales been stuck below 3%, the market equilib- rium rate, for five years now. It rose only slightly in 2003, from 0.7% to 1%. In addi- 40 tion, as a reflection of the greying popula- tion, senior citizens’ homes accounted for six out of ten rental residences started in 20 2003, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Housing starts There has been no let-up in the popularity 0 of condos. Construction of condominium 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 properties reached all-time highs in 2003. Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Condos are an affordable form of home and Greater Montréal Real Estate Board ownership and well suited to dense urban environments where land is expensive.

The resale market also remained at the high Vacancy rates, Montréal CMA level it had reached in the third quarter. % 27 Non-residential real-estate surpluses ease off Office The non-residential real-estate market still 18 suffers from the drop in Montréal exports and is affected by the stability of producer services. The value of non-residential building permits remained low. However, 9 real-estate surpluses eased slightly, even in Industrial the industrial sector, where demand had Housing taken the hardest blow. 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Sources: CB Richard Ellis and Desjarlais Prévost 4th quarter 2003

5 The Metropolitan Economy

PORTRAIT: Public investment in the Montréal region Local public investment stagnates

Public investment, a prerequisite for In addition, in the last business cycle, prop- industrial and urban development erty taxes fell. Municipalities depend on Building infrastructure has long been one of these taxes. Local indirect taxes, which had the main types of government spending. In risen by 48% in real terms between 1982 its early stages, economic development and 1992, fell by 4% from 1992 to 2002. calls for major infrastructure like roads, railways and harbours. It tends to be pri- Local public administrations suddenly marily the public sector that bankrolls such found themselves in a financial bind. Be- ventures, since they mainly benefit society tween 1992 and 2002, as the federal and as a whole and their construction requires provincial governments increased their considerable capital, with a return on in- revenues in Quebec by 37% and 30%, vestment spread over long periods. The respectively, local public administrations first source of public debt in the Canadian watched as theirs shrank by 5%. federation, in fact, was the loans required to pay for the railway laid “from sea to sea.” Local public investment flatlines Faced with this decline in their revenues, The expansion of cities calls for public local pubic administrations deferred the investment in roads, water treatment plants maintenance and renewal of their infra- and water main and sewer systems. The structure. They have to contend with a high baby boom, immigration and urbanization proportion of fixed costs, and investment resulted in much new infrastructure con- expenditures are the easiest to cut back in struction from the Second World War the short term. through the 1960s. Slowing demographic growth in the late 1970s slowed investment Investment spending by local public in infrastructure, but urban sprawl administrations in greater Montréal continued to stimulate demand for new declined during the 1990-1991 recession infrastructure. and stagnated for the rest of the decade. However, such spending by the federal and Followed by the need for renewal provincial governments,2 which had risen Although public investment has its most counter-cyclically during the recession, significant impact in the early days of in- shrank from 1994 to 1997, during budget- dustrial development, needs for new infra- balancing efforts, and then climbed back by structure may appear from time to time in 15% per year on average in constant dol- the years that follow. Up to the 1970s, lars. Local public investment, which maintenance costs were low, since infra- equalled and even exceeded investment by structure was new. In subsequent years, higher levels of government in the 1980s, however, infrastructure began to show stood at only 40% of that spending in 2001. signs of deterioration. These trends prevail throughout the MMC, But a series of economic difficulties then except in Laval. In Montréal, when federal occurred one after the other, limiting in- and provincial investment was taking off, vestment in infrastructure. The 1981-82 local investment slipped by 9% a year from recession caused public administrations to 1998 to 2001. More or less the same thing slash their budgets, and high interest rates occurred in Montérégie, Lanaudière and the discouraged them from borrowing. Laurentians. Laval is the only area where the local administration invests more than Municipalities have their hands tied the higher levels of government, and has In the 1990s, major economic restructuring done so since 1996. and fiscal consolidation led to reduced public investment. At the federal level, these cuts were carried out in part by reducing transfer payments to the prov- inces, while the provincial governments, for their part, downloaded responsibilities and expenses onto municipalities. In Quebec, transfers from the provincial government to local public administrations were slashed by 19% in constant dollars between 1995 and 1997, and have since climbed back up by only 15%.

2. Includes investment by federal and provincial departments, health and education networks, but not 6 public corporations. Government revenue¹, Québec Local government revenue, Québec $ billion 1997 $ billion 1997 45 9 Transfers from provincial gov. Provincial government 30 6 Federal government Local indirect taxes 15 3 Local government

0 0 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1. Revenue less transfers to other government levels. Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec

Investment, government services, Greater Montréal area¹ $ billion 1997 3 Other government

2

1 Local government

0 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 1. Montréal, Laval, Laurentides, Lanaudière and Montérégie Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec

Investment, government services, Investment, government services, Montréal Laval $ million 1997 $ million 1997 1800 300 Other government Local government 1200 200

600 100 Local government Other government 0 0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec

Investment, government services, Investment, government services, Montérégie Lanaudière et Laurentides $ million 1997 $ million 1997 750 450 Other government Other government 500 300

250 150

Local government Local government 0 0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec Source: Institut de la statistique du Québec 4th quarter 2003

7 The Metropolitan Economy

PRICES, CONSUMPTION AND TOURISM Prices in Montréal Prices cool off, except in housing % change over the previous Inflation slowed late in the year. Some spe- 18 cific factors, including substantial hikes in Residential prices (SIA/MLS) automobile insurance premiums, had pushed it to an annual rate of 3.9% in early 12 2003. Since then, employment losses stemmed inflationary pressures, while the 6 rising Canadian dollar was reducing the prices of imports. Oil was cheaper than a year earlier, although prices began rising in 0 November as the economy heated up. Consumer prices Lower numbers of tourists reduced ac- commodation costs for travellers. The -6 decline in demand for automobiles pushed 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 prices down slightly. Sources: Statistics Canada and Greater Montréal Real Estate Board Housing prices, on the other hand, contin- ued to climb. On the resale market, the in- crease in the average value of transactions has been upwards of 15% for close to two Retail sales, Montréal CMA years now. $ billion, at annual rate, seasonally adjusted 35 Automobile sales slow Encouraged by low interest rates and rising house prices, consumers were one of the pillars of growth in the early 2000s. They 30 continued to buy houses, furniture and home appliances. In the fourth quarter, however, automobile sales were down so 25 far that they ate into total retail sales figures. 20 Households’ finances remained healthy. In 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 the first half of 2003, declining employment Source: Statistics Canada had caused a slight rise in the number of personal bankruptcies, but that figure dropped again by the end of the year. Tourism Slight upturn in tourism late in the %, seasonally adj. '000, at annual rate, seasonally adj. year 90 3.2 After the worst summer season in ten Tourists entering Quebec years, tourism picked up late in the year. The number of tourists entering Quebec 80 2.4 and hotel occupancy rates in Montréal were Ice storm up in comparison with the lows of the third 70 Hotel occupancy 1.6 quarter. The drop in tourist demand last rate in Montréal summer was exacerbated by the rising Ca- nadian dollar, SARS in Toronto, stagnating 60 0.8 employment and the geopolitical climate in the United States. The economic recovery 50 0.0 south of the border should gradually 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 improve tourism conditions. Sources: Hotel Ass. of Greater Montreal and Statistics Canada

8 Quarterly economic indicators for the Montréal CMA

2001 2002 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Seasonally adjusted Labour market Average Labour force '000 1,834 1,860 1,856 1,882 1,902 1,922 1,934 1,963 1,970 1,968 1,982 2,019 Employment '000 1,686 1,709 1,715 1,713 1,734 1,765 1,773 1,799 1,791 1,775 1,784 1,833 Employment rate % 59.9 60.6 60.6 60.3 60.9 61.7 61.8 62.5 62.0 61.2 61.3 62.8 Unemployment rate % 8.1 8.1 7.6 9.0 8.8 8.2 8.4 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.0 9.2 Unemployment insurance (1,3) '000 47.9 52.2 57.8 59.6 60.1 56.7 59.3 57.4 56.8 59.0 63.8 60.2 Welfare recipients (1,4,e) '000 146.1 144.0 143.2 143.9 143.0 141.9 141.9 140.5 140.1 139.1 138.2 136.8 Real estate Total Building permits $M 1,090 1,050 890 1,190 1,130 1,020 1,150 1,300 1,160 1,270 1,350 1,490 Housing starts Number 3,300 3,200 3,000 3,800 4,800 5,100 5,400 5,300 4,900 5,500 7,000 7,000 Residential sales (SIA/MLS,1) Number 9,700 10,700 11,200 12,300 13,700 10,400 12,200 12,600 11,600 10,500 14,900 13,500 Other Total Retail sales (1) $M 7,369 7,631 7,529 7,782 7,866 7,959 7,995 8,045 8,279 8,321 8,499 8,470 Port traffic, total (1) '000 t 5,436 4,800 4,705 4,411 4,729 4,778 4,716 4,615 5,228 5,292 5,394 4,978 Container (1) '000 t 2,245 2,167 2,173 2,134 2,219 2,387 2,447 2,394 2,312 2,552 2,424 2,467 Airport traffic (1) '000 pass. 2,603 2,526 2,331 2,056 2,113 2,179 2,278 2,226 2,219 2,070 2,277 2,379 Hotel occupancy rate (1) Av., % 71.5 68.3 65.6 67.6 67.2 70.8 66.6 69.3 67.4 64.7 60.4 67.3 Not seasonally adjusted Labour market Average Labour force '000 1,816 1,873 1,877 1,865 1,885 1,936 1,953 1,946 1,954 1,983 1,999 2,002 Employment '000 1,663 1,720 1,732 1,708 1,712 1,776 1,787 1,795 1,769 1,786 1,797 1,831 Employment rate % 59.1 61.0 61.2 60.2 60.1 62.1 62.3 62.4 61.3 61.6 61.8 62.7 Unemployment rate % 8.5 8.2 7.7 8.4 9.2 8.3 8.5 7.7 9.5 9.9 10.1 8.6 Unemployment insurance (3) '000 59.0 47.3 57.4 53.8 71.2 51.9 58.9 51.5 67.9 54.1 63.4 54.3 Welfare recipients (4,e) '000 147.3 144.7 142.6 142.5 144.4 142.4 141.4 139.1 141.5 139.6 137.7 135.3 Employment by industry Average Construction '000 54 58 56 62 57 74 77 74 65 75 77 75 Manufacturing '000 305 310 333 321 316 311 318 320 303 295 292 293 Trade '000 286 300 276 278 291 309 303 322 313 315 319 338 Transportation and warehousing '000 97 101 94 85 73 79 82 80 83 90 93 88 Finance, ins., real est. andleasing '000 97 100 103 108 115 115 113 104 113 116 118 119 Professional, sc. and tech. serv. '000 139 136 130 131 134 143 146 141 137 141 139 136 Management and adm. support '000 56 55 66 66 64 75 78 66 61 65 64 61 Education '000 100 98 100 115 114 118 116 132 135 132 113 124 Health care and social assistance '000 177 174 189 181 181 183 190 194 193 189 207 223 Information, culture and recreation '000 87 99 101 107 104 108 107 91 90 91 94 97 Accommodation andfood serv. '000 95 104 101 85 82 91 82 92 101 100 101 97 Other services '000 71 79 78 69 68 66 70 77 76 74 72 78 Public administration '000 84 87 82 78 89 82 82 78 76 83 84 77 Construction Total Housing starts Number 2,515 4,415 2,594 3,788 4,021 6,411 4,794 5,328 4,128 6,688 6,481 7,024 Building permits $M 842 1,223 872 1,281 947 1,224 1,086 1,347 986 1,497 1,290 1,558 Residential 417 580 372 523 634 810 639 648 721 840 854 1,088 Commercial 240 463 346 445 213 257 233 306 173 365 259 290 Industrial 146 108 69 153 70 91 70 96 46 70 57 77 Institutional and governmental 39 72 84 160 30 67 144 297 46 222 120 104 Real estate Total Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 11,866 13,542 7,476 10,212 16,107 13,364 8,150 10,536 13,454 13,123 9,975 11,235 Vacancy rate, rental housing % 0.6 0.7 1.0 Vacancy rate, office % 10.9 10.4 12.6 12.8 12.6 12.7 13.5 13.6 14.9 14.9 14.3 14.1 Downtown % 9.1 10.7 11.1 11.3 12.0 11.5 11.7 13.9 13.6 13.0 12.5 Suburbs % 12.9 15.9 16.2 15.0 14.1 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.7 17.0 17.4 Vacancy rate, industrial % 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.2 5.7 7.1 6.7 6.9 7.6 8.5 7.6 Prices and interest rates Average Consumer price index 1992=100 112.5 113.9 113.9 113.3 114.1 115.1 116.4 117.0 118.6 118.2 118.3 118.6 Increase over 1 year % 2.7 3.2 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 2.3 3.3 3.9 2.7 1.6 1.3 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $000 123.6 125.5 128.9 129.6 132.2 144.5 146.9 152.3 156.2 165.3 171.9 177.7 Mortgage rate - 5 years %, end 7.25 7.75 7.15 6.85 7.30 7.25 6.70 6.70 6.85 5.80 6.30 6.45 Other Retail sales Total, $M 6,376 8,265 7,572 8,146 6,792 8,621 8,042 8,409 7,145 9,014 8,550 8,852 Bankruptcies, consumer Number 3,063 3,145 2,907 2,967 2,778 2,778 2,708 2,603 2,807 2,926 2,698 2,779 Bankruptcies, business Number 339 267 227 334 251 272 226 239 268 253 206 211 Bankruptcies, totalliabilities $M 560 420 406 436 343 570 455 375 727 356 426 443 Port traffic, total '000 t 4,097 5,078 5,167 4,776 3,671 5,026 5,063 4,959 3,982 5,554 5,859 5,385 Container '000 t 2,146 2,228 2,137 2,208 2,119 2,449 2,410 2,468 2,212 2,614 2,388 2,541 Airport traffic '000 pass. 2,536 2,510 2,601 1,894 2,058 2,168 2,528 2,053 2,161 2,062 2,527 2,190 Hotel occupancy rate % 58.0 72.8 80.1 60.6 54.5 75.1 81.3 62.8 54.6 68.8 73.8 60.7 4th quarter 2003 Notes and sources at the end of the tables 9 The Metropolitan Economy

Quarterly economic indicators for Montréal and Laval

2001 2002 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Montréal Seasonally adjusted (1) Average Social dependency indicator (2) % 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.5 Unemployment insurance (3) '000 25.3 28.0 30.7 32.5 32.5 30.8 31.2 30.8 30.2 31.5 33.1 32.4 Welfare recipients (4) '000 108.7 108.0 107.5 108.2 107.4 107.5 107.6 107.3 106.0 105.9 105.3 104.8 Not seasonally adjusted Labour market Average Labour force '000 925 954 948 923 939 968 968 962 979 1,000 1,011 992 Employment '000 836 858 854 826 846 876 869 873 870 878 884 891 Employment rate % 56.3 57.6 57.3 55.3 56.4 58.3 57.7 57.8 57.4 57.8 58.0 58.2 Unemployment rate % 9.6 10.1 9.9 10.5 9.9 9.5 10.2 9.2 11.2 12.2 12.5 10.2 Social dependency indicator (2) % 11.0 10.7 10.9 10.7 11.4 10.7 10.8 10.4 10.9 10.6 10.7 10.2 Unemployment insurance (3) '000 29.7 26.6 30.6 29.6 36.9 29.3 31.1 27.9 34.6 30.1 33.0 29.5 Welfare recipients (4) '000 109.4 108.7 107.6 106.6 108.1 108.2 107.8 105.7 106.7 106.6 105.4 103.2 Real estate and construction Total Housing starts Number 703 1,177 804 1,334 1,113 1,857 1,042 1,622 1,436 1,724 1,979 2,215 Building permits $M 442 625 485 517 331 464 412 650 309 763 422 643 Residential 148 179 119 175 148 229 180 221 181 274 228 396 Commercial 179 360 264 222 130 145 97 200 87 262 97 162 Industrial 82 44 36 31 35 39 36 40 10 39 25 29 Institutional and governmental 33 42 66 89 18 51 99 189 31 188 72 56 Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 3,959 4,278 2,282 3,219 4,704 4,154 2,381 3,331 3,876 4,076 2,954 3,473 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $000 159.9 168.5 179.7 172.8 178.7 199.9 207.8 204.5 215.7 232.9 241.8 247.1 Vacancy rate, office % 10.0 12.8 12.9 13.3 14.7 13.8 Consumer bankruptcies Number 1,557 1,556 1,471 1,463 1,467 1,481 1,398 1,359 1,507 1,551 1,472 1,519 Laval Seasonally adjusted (1) Average Social dependency indicator (2) % 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.1 Unemployment insurance (3) '000 4.51 4.82 5.30 5.55 5.53 5.32 5.54 5.39 5.22 5.48 6.00 5.62 Welfare recipients (4) '000 7.77 7.72 7.58 7.54 7.52 7.42 7.36 7.32 7.16 7.21 7.23 7.26 Not seasonally adjusted Labour market Average Labour force '000 183 177 190 198 194 196 194 195 195 200 198 192 Employment '000 170 164 177 183 172 178 179 183 178 182 184 174 Employment rate % 59.6 57.4 61.8 63.5 59.6 61.5 61.5 62.6 60.7 61.9 62.2 58.6 Unemployment rate % 7.3 7.2 6.5 7.6 11.4 8.9 7.5 6.2 8.7 9.3 7.5 9.7 Social dependency indicator (2) % 5.5 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.8 5.0 5.2 4.8 5.5 4.9 5.3 4.9 Unemployment insurance (3) '000 5.62 4.35 5.27 4.95 6.64 4.85 5.50 4.78 6.33 5.01 5.97 5.02 Welfare recipients (4) '000 7.90 7.74 7.52 7.44 7.65 7.44 7.30 7.22 7.29 7.23 7.18 7.16 Real estate and construction Total Housing starts Number 419 643 455 500 576 834 517 591 483 885 631 753 Building permits $M 102 120 53 178 132 138 101 87 128 76 232 159 Residential 51 78 38 75 78 105 69 49 90 43 146 119 Commercial 15 19 11 86 38 28 21 29 28 27 60 35 Industrial 36143513494104105 Institutional and governmental 082123114 02171 Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 1,257 1,316 710 1,046 1,501 1,087 672 972 1,329 1,112 846 1,095 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $000 111.8 115.6 118.2 120.9 126.4 138.3 143.6 149.1 162.0 161.1 166.4 167.7 Vacancy rate, office % 7.8 7.4 7.6 11.5 12.4 13.9 Consumer bankruptcies Number 287 281 303 293 241 253 244 276 273 305 247 243 Notes and sources at the end of the tables

Quarterly economic indicators for Longueuil, the North and South Shores

2001 2002 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Longueuil, North and South Shores Not seasonally adjusted Labour market (incl. Longueuil) Average Labour force '000 708 742 740 744 752 773 791 789 780 783 790 818 Employment '000 657 699 700 699 694 722 739 739 721 727 730 767 Employment rate % 63.0 66.7 66.5 66.2 65.3 67.7 69.0 68.7 66.8 67.0 67.0 70.0 10 Unemployment rate % 7.2 5.9 5.3 6.0 7.8 6.5 6.6 6.3 7.6 7.2 7.6 6.3 Consumer bankruptcies (Longueuil excl.) Number 874 959 838 897 779 776 746 677 735 740 727 746 Quarterly economic indicators for Longueuil, the North and South Shores (cont'd)

2001 2002 2003 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Longueuil Seasonally adjusted (1) Average Social dependency indicator (2,7) % 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0 Unemployment insurance (3,7) '000 4.09 4.54 5.18 5.24 5.39 5.13 5.42 5.08 5.11 5.38 5.84 5.49 Welfare recipients (4,5,7) '000 11.44 11.27 11.25 11.31 11.23 11.10 11.02 10.91 10.83 10.81 10.65 10.67 Not seasonally adjusted Average Social dependency indicator (2,7) % 7.3 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.7 6.8 7.1 6.7 7.4 6.8 7.1 6.7 Unemployment insurance (3,7) '000 5.10 4.01 5.18 4.76 6.40 4.60 5.42 4.60 6.12 4.86 5.84 5.01 Welfare recipients (4,5,7) '000 11.63 11.26 11.22 11.17 11.41 11.09 10.99 10.77 11.02 10.79 10.62 10.53 Real estate and construction Total Housing starts Number 304 385 154 395 384 521 678 557 268 685 775 731 Building permits $M 60 125 64 130 72 125 162 113 97 114 163 149 Residential 39593156628279577067109102 Commercial 14 22 19 49 8 33 69 33 18 24 45 27 Industrial 7379223431928310 Institutional and governmental 0754 06114 815511 Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 980 1,154 555 832 1,397 1,018 523 844 1,124 1,044 706 887 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $000 116.8 120.5 120.4 119.5 125.8 137.8 137.0 144.7 144.9 154.9 164.1 165.1 Vacancy rate, office % 19.7 18.1 14.9 19.8 23.0 20.6 Consumer bankruptcies Number 345 349 295 314 291 268 320 291 292 330 252 271 South Shore Seasonally adjusted (1) Average Social dependency indicator (2,8) % 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 3.7 Unemployment insurance (3,8) '000 5.92 6.45 7.26 7.09 7.12 6.83 7.38 6.91 7.00 7.18 8.04 7.49 Welfare recipients (4,5,8) '000 6.08 6.04 5.99 5.97 5.82 5.84 5.70 5.61 5.52 5.56 5.42 5.37 Not seasonally adjusted Average Social dependency indicator (2,8) % 4.3 3.4 3.9 3.6 4.5 3.4 3.8 3.4 4.4 3.4 3.9 3.5 Unemployment insurance (3,8) '000 8.00 5.31 7.15 6.26 9.20 5.69 7.27 6.08 9.08 6.04 7.93 6.66 Welfare recipients (4,5,8) '000 6.29 5.95 5.93 5.91 6.03 5.75 5.64 5.56 5.73 5.46 5.35 5.32 Real estate and construction Total Housing starts Number 485 878 561 508 949 1,343 1,108 1,008 661 1,408 1,325 1,475 Building permits $M 100 137 101 119 173 224 178 158 177 241 202 224 Residential 82 105 74 87 162 168 133 134 158 201 178 175 Commercial 3 20 18 12 4 20 19 9 15 17 9 27 Industrial 11105323258 39718 Institutional and governmental 424175522711475 Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 1,858 1,993 976 1,498 2,461 1,840 1,113 1,386 1,841 1,601 1,369 1,512 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $000 116.7 121.4 127.7 126.9 128.6 138.1 149.9 145.0 150.4 160.6 168.6 171.1 North Shore Seasonally adjusted (1) Average Social dependency indicator (2,9) % 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.7 5.1 4.7 Unemployment insurance (3,9) '000 6.74 7.32 8.15 8.03 8.18 7.77 8.60 8.13 8.01 8.38 9.59 8.39 Welfare recipients (4,5,9) '000 8.63 8.54 8.29 8.20 8.10 7.99 7.80 7.50 7.39 7.43 7.40 7.31 Not seasonally adjusted Average Social dependency indicator (2,9) % 5.5 4.4 5.0 4.6 5.8 4.3 4.9 4.4 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.4 Unemployment insurance (3,9) '000 9.11 6.00 8.05 7.06 10.56 6.46 8.51 7.16 10.39 7.06 9.50 7.43 Welfare recipients (4,5,9) '000 8.91 8.44 8.17 8.14 8.38 7.89 7.68 7.44 7.67 7.34 7.28 7.26 Real estate and construction Total Housing starts Number 604 1,332 620 1,041 999 1,856 1,449 1,550 1,280 1,986 1,771 1,850 Building permits $M 138 216 169 337 238 273 234 339 275 287 271 382 Residential 97 158 111 130 184 225 179 187 223 245 193 296 Commercial 294234773231263624314839 Industrial 1031693181218242181215 Institutional and governmental 213738341292631832 Residential sales (SIA/MLS) Number 1,840 1,900 949 1,382 2,569 1,804 1,048 1,490 2,021 1,636 1,287 1,534 Residential prices (SIA/MLS) $000 106.5 109.9 114.7 113.0 117.4 126.4 130.9 133.6 137.2 147.4 155.4 153.0 1. Seasonally adjusted by the CMM. 2. Social dependency indicator = 100 × (regular unemployment-insurance recipients with no earnings and adult welfare recipients without restrictions or with temporary restrictions) ÷ population aged 15 to 64. 3. Regular unemployment-insurance recipients with no earnings. 4. Adult welfare recipients without employment restrictions or with temporary restrictions. 5. Last month of the quarter. 6. According to the Montréal CMA boundaries. 7. Former RCM ofChamplain (equivalent to Longueuil without Boucherville and Saint-Bruno). 8. Sum of the RCMs of La Vallée-du-Richelieu, Lajemmerais, Roussillon and Vaudreuil-Soulanges. 9. Sum of the RCMs of Deux-Montagnes, Thérèse-de-Blainville, Mirabel, L'Assomption and Les Moulins. 10. Total sales in Boucherville and Saint-Bruno, and plex sales in Brossard, Greenfield-Park and Saint-Lambert included in the South Shore and not in Longueuil. 4th quarter 2003 e. Estimate. Sources: Statistics Canada; Emploi, Solidarité sociale et Famille - Québec; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; 11 Bank ofCanada; CB Richard Ellis; Industry Canada; Hotel Association ofGreater Montreal; Greater Montréal Real Estate Board; Desjarlais Prévost; Port of Montreal and Aéroports de Montréal Definitions Constant prices (or dollars) Prices that Saint-Isidore, Saint-Constant, La Prairie, prevailed in a base period, used to measure Chambly, Mont-Saint-Hilaire, Beloeil and the real value of goods and services. Any Varennes); 4,047 km2; pop. 3,426,000 in changes in real value are due solely to 2001. changes in physical quantities. The Communauté métropolitaine de Consumer Price Index Index that meas- Montréal covers the territory of the Montréal ures the change over time in the cost of pur- CMA, minus the municipalities of Gore, chasing a constant “basket” of goods and Lavaltrie, Saint-Colomban, Saint-Jérôme and services. It therefore measures price Saint-Placide (on the North Shore), plus movements. those of Calixa-Lavallée, Contrecœur, Saint- Current prices (or dollars) Prices pre- Jean-Baptiste and Verchères (on the South vailing in the current period, used to meas- Shore); 3,838 km2; pop. 3,358,000 in 2001. ure the nominal value of goods and Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Resi- services. Any changes in nominal value are dential resale service that provides all mem- due to combined changes in prices and in ber brokers and agents of the Greater physical quantities. Montréal Real Estate Board and of the MLS Employment (employed persons) Per- with access to a property. sons who reside in an area and who are Participation rate (Labour force ÷ popu- working, wherever their workplace. lation 15 years of age and over) × 100. Employment rate (Employment ÷ popu- Retail sales Goods and related services lation 15 years of age and over) × 100. for household or personal consumption, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Total usually sold in stores. value of a country’s (region’s, province’s) Seasonal adjustment Eliminates the ef- output of goods and services during a given fect of annual repetitive changes caused by period (year, quarter). regular annual events such as climate and Housing start Housing unit on which holiday periods. construction has begun, usually when the Social dependency indicator 100 concrete has been poured for the whole of × (regular unemployment-insurance recipi- the footing around the structure. ents with no earnings and adult welfare re- Labour force All civilians 15 years of age cipients without employment restrictions or and over who are employed or unemployed. with temporary restrictions) ÷ population Montréal Census Metropolitan Area aged 15 to 64. (CMA) Area encompassing the cities of Unemployed Persons who are without Montréal, Laval, Longueuil, the North Shore work and who are actively looking for work. (up to Saint-Placide, Saint-Jérôme, Unemployment rate (Number of unem- Mascouche and L’Assomption) and the ployed persons ÷ labour force) x 100. South Shore (up to Hudson, Beauharnois,

Explanatory note Every quarter, The Metropolitan Economy do the adjusting. Otherwise, the data can be provides a review of economic trends in compared only year over year. the Montréal metropolitan area and its five For additional information, contact Maxime sectors, Montréal, Laval, Longueuil, and the Trottier, Metropolitan Economic Develop- North and South Shores. ment, at (514) 350-2558. Information on urban economies is To obtain a copy, visit the CMM Website or incomplete because statistics are aggregated write to: mostly on a national or provincial scale. Brigitte Cloutier When statistics on the Montréal metropolitan Communauté métropolitaine de Montréal area do not exist, data available for the 1002, rue Sherbrooke Ouest, bureau 2400 closest spatial unit, e.g. the province of Montréal (Quebec) H3A 3L6 Quebec or Canada, are used. Tel.: (514) 350-2565 Fax: (514) 350-2599 Often, statistics agencies do not seasonally adjust regional statistics. In some cases, we

ISSN 1708-5500 Legal deposit, 2nd quarter 2004 Version française disponible