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2000 Census of Population and Housing V

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2000 Census of Population and Housing V PREFACE This report presents Epidemiological Projections for the period 1985 to 2010 up to district level. The results provided include estimated Adult Prevalence Levels, Number Infected, New AIDS Cases, Annual AIDS- Deaths, Cumulative AIDS death and AIDS Orphans. Appreciation mainly go to co-operating partners namely the National AIDS Council (NAC), Development Cooperation, Ireland (DCI), POLICY Project and the United Sates Agency for International Development (USAID), for providing financial, material and technical support which facilitated the execution of this very important exercise by the Central Statistical Office. Special appreciation also go to the CSO Census Secretariat and all other professionals for their commitment and input in ensuring that projection activities run accordingly from start to finish. Finally, I wish to thank everyone that contributed directly or indirectly, but not mentioned above, to the successful production of the projections of this report. The statistical information obtained is important for planning and designing as well as monitoring and evaluating intervention strategies and programmes. In addition, the information is very useful in making informed decisions by policy makers and planners regarding the future direction of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its likely socio-economic impacts on the general population. Dr. Buleti G. Nsemukila DIRECTOR OF CENSUS AND STATISTICS HIV/AIDS Epidemiological Projections i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following people contributed immensely to the preparation of this report: Dr. Buleti G. Nsemukila (Director of Census and Statistics, Central Statistical Office) Dr. Rosemary Musonda (Acting Director, National HIV/AIDS Council) Dr. Alex Simwanza (Director of Programmes, National HIV/AIDS Council) Mr. William Mayaka (Deputy Director-Social Statistics, Central Statistical Office) Dr. Jacob.R.S Malungo (Lecturer/Consultant, University of Zambia) Mrs. Robie Siamwiza (Director, POLICY PROJECT) Mr. Vesper Chisumpa (POLICY PROJECT) Mr. Chibwe Lwamba (Demographer/Project Co-ordinator, Central Statistical Office) Ms. Margaret Tembo-Mwanamwenge (Senior Demographer, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Patrick Chewe (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Ms. Dorothy Simambo Kaemba, Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mrs. Chola .N. Daka (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Ms. Josephine Chewe (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mrs. Linda .N. Chonya (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Gerson. A. Banda (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Musumali Shindano (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Litia Simbangala (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Palver Sikanyiti (Statistician, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Anthony Nkole (Desktop Publishing Officer, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Makoselo Bowa (Desktop Publishing Officer, Central Statistical Office) Mr. Webster Chileshe (Desktop Publishing Officer, Central Statistical Office) ii HIV/AIDS Epidemiological Projections EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The epidemiological projections presented in this report were made using the Cohort Component method. In this method, the three components that are responsible for population change, namely mortality, fertility and migration are projected separately. Mortality took into account the impact of HIV/AIDS on the population; this component (HIV/AIDS) was also projected separately. The projected components are then applied to the mid year base population in order to come up with the desired indicators at future points in time. The HIV/AIDS input data was obtained from Sentinel Surveillance data, which was modeled to fit prevalence as observed in the 2001/2002 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. Using this data, the component method was used to obtain provincial epidemiological projections. The results were then aggregated to come-up with the national projections. District projections were obtained by prorating to provincial estimates. This projections report gives specific fertility, mortality and HIV/AIDS assumptions, which realistically depicts Zambia’s socio-economic and demographic future trends. The results provided include estimated Adult Prevalence Levels, Number Infected, New AIDS Cases, Annual AIDS- Deaths, Cumulative AIDS death and AIDS Orphans. The prevalence is estimated to be 14.4 percent in 2004, that is one in every seven persons is HIV positive. It is anticipated that HIV prevalence will decline to 12 percent in 2010, indicating a downward trend in the pandemic. The epidemiological projections estimates the number infected to be 917,718 in Zambia in 2004, of which 411,181 are males and 506,537 are females. By 2010 HIV infected persons will decline to 881,143, with 397,233 males and 483,910 females. In 2004 it is estimated that the total number of orphans in Zambia is 1,147,614. Of these 488,189 are maternal, 515,563 are paternal and 143,862 are dual orphans, indicating that there are more paternal than maternal orphans. The total number of orphans is expected to increase by about 16 percent to 1,328,000 in 2010. Of these 42 percent are expected to be maternal, 45 percent paternal and 13 percent dual orphans. HIV/AIDS Epidemiological Projections iii Table of Contents PREFACE .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .....................................................................................................................................................................................................ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables............................................................................................................................................................................................................................v List of Figures .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ix 1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Concepts and Definitions ..............................................................................................................................................................................................2 1.2 Phases of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic..............................................................................................................................................................................3 1.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................................................3 2.0 HIV Prevalence in Zambia...........................................................................................................................................................................................6 3.0 Number of Persons Infected with HIV in Zambia .....................................................................................................................................................14 4.0 Number of Annual New AIDS Cases in Zambia .......................................................................................................................................................28 5.0 Number of Annual AIDS-Deaths in Zambia..............................................................................................................................................................42 6.0 Number of Cumulative AIDS Deaths in Zambia .......................................................................................................................................................54 7.0 Number of Total Orphans in Zambia .........................................................................................................................................................................67 8.0 Number of AIDS Orphans in Zambia ........................................................................................................................................................................87 References ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................105 iv HIV/AIDS Epidemiological Projections List of Tables HIV Prevalence in Zambia Table 2.0: Estimated HIV Prevalence by Province, 1985-2010 .......................................................................................................................................... 10 Table 2.1: Estimated HIV Prevalence by District, Central Province, 1985-2010................................................................................................................ 10 Table 2.2: Estimated HIV Prevalence by District, Copperbelt Province, 1985-2010........................................................................................................
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