Famine Early Warning Systems Network ZAMBIA MONTHLY REPORT May, 2004 SUMMARY ¾ The Rapid Flood Impact Assessment in western Zambia established that affected households require both food and non food assistance as a result of excessive flooding. ¾ An estimated 39,277 households in six affected districts will require food assistance for a period of 2 to 4 months, starting in July and August, amounting to 9,547 MT of cereal. In addition, households will require seed donations, especially for early maturing varieties of maize for the winter season. ¾ The water and sanitation situation in the flooded areas has deteriorated considerably with increased seasonal water-borne and vector-spread diseases such as malaria ¾ The country is entering the 2004/5 marketing season with significant stocks. ¾ Active marketing of maize has started slowly as millers and traders wait for confirmation on the total carryover stock count. ¾ Maize prices have started to fall in response to increased supplies on the market. ¾ The crop harvest assessment is on-going; initial indications are that the harvest will be as good as last year. ¾ There are confirmed reports of an outbreak of Large Grain Borer (LGB) in Southern Province, which may threaten the expected good harvest. 1.0 Flood-affected households in western Zambia require food and non-food assistance As reported last month, extensive flooding occurred in western Zambia from early December to mid-March. A multi-sectoral team composed of staff from UN agencies, NGOs and the government, carried out a rapid assessment in flood-affected western Zambia from May 10 to May 17th in order to establish the impact of the floods on food security, health, water and sanitation and to provide adequate information for designing an appropriate response plan. A summary of the team’s findings is found below. 1.1 Findings The assessment team confirmed that above normal flooding occurred in Western and North Western Provinces of Zambia this year and that, as a result, around 39,277 people will require food assistance for a period of two to four months. Seasonal flooding is the norm in this area, usually starting around February, but this year record-breaking rains of up to 60% above normal caused flooding to start as early as December. This year’s flooding was ranked by local informants among the historic floods of 1958, 1968 and 1978. The most affected areas are found mostly on the western part of the Zambezi River and include Senanga, Mongu, Kalabo, and Lukulu Districts of Western Province; and Chavuma and Zambezi Districts in North Western Province. The floods caused damage to homes, roads, bridges, schools, health centers and crops, especially in the flood plains and low lying areas. The water and sanitation situation has deteriorated considerably, with a notable increase in seasonal water-borne and vector- spread diseases such as malaria. Although data collected from central points of some districts suggested a minimal difference from the situation last season, which was also a high rainfall season, health, water and sanitation issues were found to be critical. Malaria rates have, in some instances, reached as high as 130 per 1000 cases. There are mounting concerns that the slow rate at which waters are subsiding is likely to stretch this highly infectious period out. Normally, water subsides by end of May. Households in the flood-affected traditionally base their livelihoods on a combination of subsistence cassava and maize production, fishing and livestock rearing. Although historically livestock rearing was the most important aspect of local livelihoods, serious outbreaks of CBPP have diminished livestock populations. This was especially evident in Chavuma District, where a lack of draft power has become a major constraint to production. With regard to food security, early floods destroyed most crops before they reached maturity, especially in the low-lying areas. In Kalabo District, the most affected among the six districts, it appears that as many as 75% of households lost the majority of their food crops. The loss of crops has brought the lean period forward to as early as June as contrasted with the normal lean period from September to November. Figure 1. Normal Seasonal Timeline for most of flood-affected area The assessment team established that 39,277 households will need approximately 9,547 MT of food assistance for a period of 2 to 4 months, starting between July and August, as detailed on Table 1. The objective of the food aid will be to supplement households with food during the lean period, when they normally prepare and plant ‘winter’ maize which is harvested in November. Food aid will help ensure that households can devote all of their available labor to their own production rather than being forced to work off farm or to migrate in search of food. Table 1: Households affected and food aid requirements Duration % Number of of* food Food aid District Households households assistance requirements District Households Affected affected (months) Period* (MT)** Kalabo 23970 75% 17978 4 July - October 5,178 Lukulu 13448 65% 8741 3 August -October 1,888 Mongu 32054 September - 10% 3205 2 October 462 Senanga 20956 25% 5239 3 August -October 1,132 Chavum 6,298 a 25% 1575 3 August -October 340 Zambez 12698 i 20% 2540 3 August -October 549 Totals 109,424 39,277 9,547 *The duration of food aid intervention will be subject to a good harvest of the winter crop, which in turn depends on the rate at which waters recede and the availability of inputs. **Calculated using 400g/person/day. These estimates were arrived at after considering, among other factors, the following: ¾ The annual activity calendar for the affected areas, which takes into account major livelihoods and coping strategies of communities. For instance, the availability of “winter” harvest starting in November implies that food assistance should not go beyond October. ¾ Increased fish catches, especially on the west banks, where fishing is a major activity, are helping to offset the crop losses. In addition to being consumed directly, the fish are being exchanged for grain from the east bank. ¾ May and June is the rice harvest period. Although rice production was not affected in a number of areas, due to the timing of planting, the amounts grown are not enough to offset the need for food aid ¾ The current grain prices, which have decreased since January and are in line with the seasonal norms of the May harvest period, are an indication that adequate supplies are still available and there is no need for an immediate food intervention. It is worth noting that the Disaster Mitigation and Management Unit (DMMU) has in stock around 16,000 MT of grain which could be used to meet these food needs, suggesting that food assistance from outside the country is not required. The floods also disrupted Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia (CBPP) cattle disease control program. The inevitable concentration of cattle on higher grounds has also heightened concerns that the disease will spread further, and increased pressure on pastures. Generally, the lowland plains provide a plentiful source of pasture for livestock, but with the floods, cattle have been forced to depend on the limited upland pastures. Short term relief needs are in the areas of health, water and sanitation, food and agriculture. Access to clean water, and the control of malaria and other water-borne diseases is critical. With respect to agriculture, it will be important to provide inputs in time for the “winter farming” season; distributions should start as soon as waters subside. Waters, which should have receded by the end of May, have been slow to leave, and are not likely to be gone until July, prolonging prevailing concerns regarding health, water, sanitation and food security. 1.2 Recommendations Based on the findings from the assessment team, the following recommendations have been made: ¾ Timely provision of early maturing maize seeds for winter cropping in the plains, preferably by July 2004. ¾ Targeted food assistance taking into account any on-going relief programs and only for the specified period. For Chavuma and Zambezi Districts, cassava should be considered as a food aid commodity, as this is the staple food in the area ¾ Cassava cuttings to help farmers replace what has been lost should be locally sourced from the east bank, where farmers have available cuttings ¾ Up-scaling and intensification of CBPP control programs ¾ Up-scaling and intensification of Malaria control measures ¾ The use of purification tablets and water maker sachets to treat drinking water should be promoted ¾ A Supplementary Immunization Activity (SIA) should be considered for the west bank areas as vaccinations were disrupted due to poor access during the flood period. ¾ Promotion of public health awareness messages in the flood-affected districts should be strengthened (hygiene, safe water, proper excreta disposal). ¾ Implementation of school feeding programs to mitigate the impact of food shortages on school attendance, particularly during the lean period. ¾ Development and implementation of disaster preparedness plans at district level 2.0 Trade slowed by decreased internal demand and unclear market signals As Figure 2 shows, all provinces had carryover stocks as of May 20th, and the food availability situation is expected to remain satisfactory throughout the country. The 2004/5 marketing year started slowly on 1st May 2004, with commercial farmers and traders gradually selling off carryover stocks from last season. The slow start has been advantageous to the small-scale farmers who were able to dry their maize more effectively before trading. A high moisture content results in lower than premium prices. In major trading centers, like Eastern, Lusaka, Southern and Central Provinces, stock levels are relatively high and trading is expected to progress slowly.