The Challenges and Opportunities of Energy-Flexible Factories: a Holistic Case Study of the Model Region Augsburg in Germany

sustainability

Article The Challenges and Opportunities of Energy-Flexible Factories: A Holistic Case Study of the Model Region Augsburg in Germany

Stefan Roth 1,* , Paul Schott 2 , Katharina Ebinger 3 , Stephanie Halbrügge 4, Britta Kleinertz 5 , Jana Köberlein 1, Danny Püschel 3, Hans Ulrich Buhl 4, Steﬃ Ober 3, Gunther Reinhart 1 and Seraﬁn von Roon 5

1 Fraunhofer Research Institution for Casting, Composite and Processing Technology IGCV, Provinostr. 52, 86153 Augsburg, Germany; [email protected] (J.K.); [email protected] (G.R.) 2 Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT, Wittelsbacherring 10, 95444 Bayreuth, Germany; paul.schott@fit.fraunhofer.de 3 Civil Society Platform Research Transition, Marienstraße 19-20, 10117 Berlin, Germany; [email protected] (K.E.); [email protected] (D.P.); steffi[email protected] (S.O.) 4 FIM Research Center, University of Augsburg Project Group Business & Information Systems Engineering of the Fraunhofer FIT, Universitätsstraße 12, 86159 Augsburg, Germany; stephanie.halbruegge@fim-rc.de (S.H.); hans-ulrich.buhl@fim-rc.de (H.U.B.) 5 Forschungsgesellschaft für Energiewirtschaft mbh (FFE), Am Blütenanger 71, 80995 Munich, Germany; bkleinertz@ffe.de (B.K.); sroon@ffe.de (S.v.R.) * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-821-90678-168

Received: 29 November 2019; Accepted: 31 December 2019; Published: 2 January 2020

Abstract: Economic solutions for the integration of volatile renewable electricity generation are decisive for a socially supported energy transition. So-called energy-flexible factories can adapt their electricity consumption process efficiently to power generation. These adaptions can support the system balance and counteract local network bottlenecks. Within part of the model region Augsburg, a research and demonstration area of a federal research project, the potential, obstacles, effects, and opportunities of the energy-flexible factory were considered holistically. Exemplary flexibilization measures of industrial companies were identified and modeled. Simulations were performed to analyze these measures in supply scenarios with advanced expansion of fluctuating renewable electricity generation. The simulations demonstrate that industrial energy flexibility can make a positive contribution to regional energy balancing, thus enabling the integration of more volatile renewable electricity generation. Based on these fundamentals, profiles for regional market mechanisms for energy flexibility were investigated and elaborated. The associated environmental additional expenses of the companies for the implementation of the flexibility measures were identified in a life-cycle assessment, with the result that the negative effects are mitigated by the increased share of renewable energy. Therefore, from a technical perspective, energy-flexible factories can make a significant contribution to a sustainable energy system without greater environmental impact. In terms of a holistic approach, a network of actors from science, industry, associations, and civil society organizations was established and actively collaborated in a transdisciplinary work process. Using design-thinking methods, profiles of stakeholders in the region, as well as their mutual interactions and interests, were created. This resulted in requirements for the development of suitable business models and reduced regulatory barriers.

Sustainability 2020, 12, 360; doi:10.3390/su12010360 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 2 of 24

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing; energy ﬂexibility; transdisciplinarity; energy supply system; renewable energy; life-cycle assessment; market mechanisms; model region Augsburg

1. Introduction In Germany, more than 90 percent of the population supports energy transition to reach the climate policy goals in principle [1,2]. However, further steps towards more renewable power generation, such as the impending phasing-out of nuclear power, the targeted phasing-out of lignite-fired power generation and the construction of new transmission lines and wind turbines, require profound structural changes and huge transfer payments. It is still not clear how these challenges can be dealt with in order to achieve a socially acceptable implementation. It is necessary to increase the participation of people to ensure the success of the energy transition. In addition, there is a need for solutions that can be accepted by all relevant stakeholders on the one hand and, on the other hand, integrated into the overall system in a structured way [2]. In 2018, German grid operators used feed-in management for renewable energy due to local transmission bottlenecks of about 5.4 TWh [3]. This corresponds to around one percent of the yearly electricity consumption in Germany. For the first quarter of 2019 alone, the compensation payments for feed-in management were estimated at 364 million EUR [3]. These are passed on via grid fees to the electricity consumers [3]. Therefore, solutions are necessary to cost-effectively integrate renewable energy sources into the grid. Among others, e.g., flexibility on the supply side, grid expansion, storages, and sector coupling, demand side management (DSM) seems to be a promising solution [4]. It originally consisted of several activities to influence customers’ use of electricity [5,6]. The German federal research project “SynErgie” from the funding program “Kopernikus” [7] analyzes the potential of so-called energy-flexible factories to balance electricity consumption with the volatile electricity generation by renewable energy sources. The industrial sector holds significant potential [4,8], as it exhibits a share of about 42% of electrical energy consumption in Germany in 2018 [9]. To exploit this potential and put energy flexibility into business practice, it is necessary to determine the technical feasibility of exemplary industrial demand-side flexibilities. Some essential prerequisites for this are economic incentives that enable energy flexibility to trade flexibility services at national and, in the future, regional markets. In addition, the social impact of flexibility measures, such as changes for employees (e.g., adaption of shift models), need to be taken into account to ensure sustainable implementation. Some contributions in the literature reveal that the investigation of energy-flexible factories has so far dealt with technological, economic, and social aspects separately. Hence, a part of the “SynErgie” project addresses the above-mentioned questions holistically in the so-called model region Augsburg. The region is located in southwestern Bavaria, Germany and consists of the city of Augsburg and the two surrounding districts, Augsburg and Aichach-Friedberg. Altogether, the model region is populated by around 660,000 people, which constitutes about 0.7% of the German population. The model region has an area of approximately 2000 square kilometers, and thus a population density of around 330 people per square kilometer. A broad variety of associations, several energy-intensive companies and a large number of small and medium-sized companies from various industries, including mechanical engineering and vehicle construction, metal production, processing industry and the chemical and paper industry, as well as rubber and plastics production, are based in the model region [10]. Thus, the region represents a comprehensive cross-section of the German industrial sector. The model region offers a suitable framework to discuss and examine the possibilities and effects of energy-flexible factories and their impact on the environment as well as on society and politics. This paper presents the research approach and stems from the study of energy-flexible factories in the model region. First, the design-thinking-based method used for transdisciplinary collaboration is presented in Section2. The next section describes stakeholder participation by the co-creative Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 3 of 24 discourse, followed by Section4, which deals with the modeling and simulation of flexibility measures in the considered system. Based on the co-creative discourse and the simulation results, three sections Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 25 dealing with the most important challenges and opportunities of energy-flexible factories address the followingmeasures questions: in the considered system. Based on the co-creative discourse and the simulation results, three sections dealing with the most important challenges and opportunities of energy-flexible 1. factoriesWhich regionaladdress the market following mechanisms questions: are available and necessary for economic incentives? (Section5); 1. Which regional market mechanisms are available and necessary for economic incentives? 2. How can energy-flexible factories be integrated into the solution kit of energy transition? (Section 5); 2.(Section How6 );can energy-flexible factories be integrated into the solution kit of energy transition? 3. How(Section interdependent 6); are participation and acceptance? (Section7). 3. How interdependent are participation and acceptance? (Section 7). The transferability of the results and requirements for the implementation of the energy-flexible factory areThe addressed transferability in Section of the results8. Finally, and requirements Section9 concludes for the implementation and o ffers a viewof the ofenergy-flexible further research questions.factory The are addressed nine sections in Section of this 8. paper Finally, are Section depicted 9 concludes and correlated and offers in a Figure view of1. further research questions. The nine sections of this paper are depicted and correlated in Figure 1.

Section 1 Motivation

Section 2 Research Mode

Section 3 Section 4 Co-Creative Simulation Discourse Studies

Section 5 Section 6 Section 7 Market Integration Acceptance Mechanisms and Comparison and Participation

Section 8 Transferability

Section 9 Conclusion and Outlook

FigureFigure 1.1. StructureStructure of of the the paper. paper.

2. Research2. Research Mode: Mode: Primal Primal Transdisciplinary Transdisciplinary StepsSteps In theIn following the following section, section, we will brieflywe will explain briefly our explain fundamental our fundamental research mode: research transdisciplinarity. mode: transdisciplinarity. Throughout this paper, the terms “transdisciplinarity” and “transdisciplinary” Throughout this paper, the terms “transdisciplinarity” and “transdisciplinary” will refer to “a reflexive will refer to “a reflexive research approach that addresses societal problems by means of research approach that addresses societal problems by means of interdisciplinary collaboration as interdisciplinary collaboration as well as the collaboration between researchers and extra-scientific wellactors” as the [11]. collaboration The main aim between of transdisciplinary researchers andresearch extra-scientific is to obtain socially actors” robust [11]. knowledge The main for aim of transdisciplinarycomplex problems, research such is as, to obtainin our sociallycase, energy robust transition knowledge and climate for complex change. problems, The comparison such as, of in our case,different energy research transition modes and based climate on their change. scientific The and comparison societal results of di hasfferent reveal researched that certain modes societal based on theirand scientific practice-relevant and societal outcomes results hasare positively revealed thatinflue certainnced when societal practitioners and practice-relevant contribute to the outcomes early are positivelystages influencedof the research when project practitioners [12]. contribute to the early stages of the research project [12]. It is importantIt is important to noteto note that, that, in in Anglo-American Anglo-American research research contexts, contexts, “transdisciplinary” “transdisciplinary” often often refers refers to multipleto multiple academic academic disciplines disciplines workingworking on on the the same same research research question question parallel parallel (we would (we wouldrefer to refer Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 4 of 24

Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 25 to this setting as “multidisciplinary”), yet not working together (we would refer to that setting as “interdisciplinary”).this setting as “multidisciplinary”), Transdisciplinarity yet innot our work terminologying together refers (we to would what readers refer to socialized that setting in the as Anglo-American“interdisciplinary”). academia Transdisciplinarity might refer to in as our “Mode terminology 2”-research refers or post-normal to what readers science socialized [13]. in the Anglo-AmericanSome important academia characteristics might refer of transdisciplinary to as “Mode 2”-research research or are: post-normal science [13]. CooperationSome important between characteristics science andof transdisciplinary society: transdisciplinary research are: research includes disciplinary • • andCooperation interdisciplinary between researchscience and on society: the science transd arena,isciplinary but also research adds includes the society disciplinary arena to and the researchinterdisciplinary process; research on the science arena, but also adds the society arena to the research Iterativeprocess; research process: as introduced by [11], the transdisciplinary research process consists of • • twoIterative arenas: research science process: and society. as introduced These interact by [11], in the a co-process transdisciplinary initiated research by defining process a boundary consists objectof two (Figurearenas:2 science). The and co-definition society. These is followed interact in by a co-process two more initiated phases—the by defining co-production a boundary of knowledgeobject (Figure and 2). the The co-communication co-definition is follow of theed new by commontwo more knowledge—integrated phases—the co-production in both of arenas,knowledge respectively; and the co-communication of the new common knowledge—integrated in both Varietyarenas, ofrespectively; methods: transdisciplinarity is not a methodology or a theory, but a research approach. • • Therefore,Variety of all methods: kinds of ditransdisciplinarityfferent scientific and is non-scientificnot a methodology methods or can a betheory, used throughoutbut a research the courseapproach. of the Therefore, project; all kinds of different scientific and non-scientific methods can be used Reflexiveness:throughout the overall, course of transdisciplinarity the project; is a reflexive mode of research, which means that it • • systematicallyReflexiveness: scrutinizesoverall, transdisciplinarity the ways in which is knowledgea reflexive ismode obtained of research, and used which by di ffmeanserent actors.that it systematically scrutinizes the ways in which knowledge is obtained and used by different actors.

Societal Formation of a Common Scie ntific Problems Research Project Problems 1

Societal Production of new Scie ntific Discourse Knowle dge Discourse 2

Results for Transdisciplinary Results for Societal Praxis Integration Scie ntific Praxis 3

FigureFigure 2.2. Ideal type ofof thethe transdisciplinarytransdisciplinary researchresearch processprocess [[11].11].

TransdisciplinaryTransdisciplinary researchresearch comescomes withwith severalseveral challenges, challenges, such such as: as: • AA longlong andand laboriouslaborious phasephase zero:zero: in the beginning of a funded research project, and even before, • therethere isis a phase phase of of intensive intensive personal personal exchange exchange and and the the building building of understanding of understanding and andtrust trust as a asprecondition a precondition for future for future collaboration, collaboration, before before any anyco-creation co-creation in the in conventional the conventional sense sense can take can takeplace; place; • FindingFinding aa commoncommon language: different different disciplines, disciplines, bu butt also also different different societal societal actors, actors, often often have have a • avery very specific specific terminology terminology whic whichh is is not not necessarily necessarily understand understandableable for for all parties involved.involved. EspeciallyEspecially inin thethe beginningbeginning ofof aa project,project, andand continuouslycontinuously throughoutthroughout itsits progress,progress, itit isis thereforetherefore essentialessential toto establishestablish aa commoncommon languagelanguage andand buildbuild aa sharedshared understandingunderstanding ofof whatwhat corecore termsterms meanmean toto everybody;everybody; • Distinct motivations and interests: societal and industrial actors usually are not interested in Distinct motivations and interests: societal and industrial actors usually are not interested in • publications and citations, like science employees. That makes it important to reflect their interests publications and citations, like science employees. That makes it important to reflect their interests and motivations sufficiently to enable sustained collaboration. It is crucial to ensure that progress and motivations sufficiently to enable sustained collaboration. It is crucial to ensure that progress is made in their cases, because it would be fatal to think of societal actors as a homogenous group, which means that there might be divergent interests and motivations; Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 5 of 24

is made in their cases, because it would be fatal to think of societal actors as a homogenous group, which means that there might be divergent interests and motivations; Highly diﬀerent time regimes: when planning a research project, there are many variables and • requirements that must be met, for instance, funding criteria, journal deadlines, conference presentations, working hours, and political or economic events. Transdisciplinary approaches add a whole new layer to the planning process—considering the time regimes of societal actors; Huge discrepancies concerning resources: whereas researchers are certainly funded for their • working time, and often stakeholders from companies and the administration are too, the case is very diﬀerent for civil society actors. In several cases, there are volunteers participating as stakeholders from civil society organizations. A good exercise might be to turn the tables [14] and ask the stakeholders at the beginning of the project what they need for participation on an equal level.

As stated above, transdisciplinarity is very demanding both for researchers and societal actors. The ideal typical transdisciplinarity process could not be fully adapted in our case. For instance, the research questions were formulated by the science partners without consulting stakeholders in phase zero. Therefore, we would describe this project as taking transdisciplinarity steps towards a more complete and deeper adaptation of transdisciplinarity approaches in the following project phases. In the next section, we will describe the co-production-process in our case and introduce the concrete methods we have used.

3. Co-Production of Socially Robust Knowledge: Some Concrete Methods In this section, we outline the transdisciplinary setting in the model region Augsburg and introduce the methods we have used to co-produce new knowledge. Note that co-production is in the middle of a three-phase co-creation process amongst co-definition and co-communication (Figure3). In our case, transdisciplinarity had an advocate in form of a project partner, which is a network of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and NGO networks pushing for sustainable development. Whereas some project partners already have deeper ties from previous cooperations, the advocate was a new actor in the project consortium. Therefore, trust-building in a new player, new colleagues, and new methods was crucial to kick-off the transdisciplinary process. Trust-building often is iterative, which means that it depends on continuously creating opportunities of exchange and tentative, which means it is not linear and takes time [15]. After having created some common ground in the team, stakeholders were brought to the project. To find and invite stakeholders to the project, local and regional actors were mapped and assigned to three spheres: the Technosphere, bringing together experts on industry and technology; the Ecosphere, bringing together experts on ecology and sustainability; and the Sociosphere, bringing together experts on society and culture (Figure3). Here, “expert” refers to a person obtaining specific knowledge, e.g., academic or use-oriented. Overall, around 50 stakeholders from corporations, the administration at the local and state level, unions, environmental NGOs, and citizen initiatives were consulted in biannual meetings. The respective spheres had meetings quarterly. The spheres themselves were transdisciplinary insofar as experts from different sectors such as research, companies, and civil society were present. In September 2018, an additional 60 stakeholders were part of a one-day stakeholder dialogue (Section7). Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 6 of 24

Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 25

Figure 3. Research questions of the didifferentﬀerent spheres.spheres.

Both thethe meetingsmeetings andand thethe one-dayone-day stakeholderstakeholder dialoguedialogue consistedconsisted ofof input-phasesinput-phases andand actualactual co-production. The methods used are detaileddetailed below.below.

3.1. Design Thinking Design Thinking is is a acreative creative and and user-oriented user-oriented process process based based on design on design methods methods to create to create new newideas ideas [16]. Nowadays, [16]. Nowadays, there is there a very is broad a very method broad methodportfolio portfolio based on basedthe Design on the Thinking Design approach. Thinking approach.From this portfolio, From this we portfolio, have chosen we have methods chosen that methods are low-threshold that are low-threshold for people who for people are not who used are to notinteractive used to settings, interactive and settings, methods and that methods can be that appl canied be within applied two within hours. two These hours. facilitation These facilitation methods methodsinclude timeboxing include timeboxing (short, structured (short, structured sprints to sprintsachieve to stated achieve goals), stated working goals), with working flexible with mobiliary ﬂexible mobiliaryand post-its, and as post-its, well as as brainstorming well as brainstorming methods. methods. Using Design Using Thinking Design Thinking methods methods extensively extensively might mightneed a needcertain a certainroutine, routine, but in our but experience in our experience it is worthwhile it is worthwhile to adapt tosome adapt methods some methodsfor a common for a commonexperiment. experiment.

3.2. Personas A personapersona is is a fictivea fictive figure figure with with typical typical attributes attributes for a specific for a specific user group user [17 group]. We have[17]. generatedWe have personasgenerated to personas make di fftoerent make stakeholder different stakeholder positions visible positions and visible create empathyand create for empathy different for issues different and needsissues (Figureand needs4). Personas (Figure 4). for Personas the following for the sectors follow wereing sectors created: were Civil created: Society, Civil Science, Society, Companies, Science, Administration.Companies, Administration. In our experience, In our personasexperience, are personas a great help are ina great changing help perspectivesin changing perspectives and making themand making more concrete. them more concrete. Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 7 of 24 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 25

FigureFigure 4. 4. AnAn example example of of a a person personaa from from civil civil society. society. 3.3. Scenario Planning 3.3. Scenario Planning We have used the scenario-planning method in combination with personas to evaluate utopias We have used the scenario-planning method in combination with personas to evaluate utopias and dystopias concerning the energy-flexible factory in a biannual stakeholder meeting. Scenario and dystopias concerning the energy-flexible factory in a biannual stakeholder meeting. Scenario planning is a suitable way to foster discussion on frame conditions and variables, and also interests. planning is a suitable way to foster discussion on frame conditions and variables, and also interests. It is a rather complex method which needs good preparation and enough time to become accustomed It is a rather complex method which needs good preparation and enough time to become accustomed to the setting. to the setting. 3.4. Sketchnote 3.4. Sketchnote A sketchnote is a kind of mind map with illustrations [18]. To create a common ground for the one-dayA sketchnote stakeholder is a dialogue,kind of mind a Sketchnote map with includingillustrations a glossary [18]. To create of important a common terms ground was createdfor the one-daywith the stakeholder following key dialogue, questions: a Sketchnote What is the includin energyg transition?a glossary of What important is the energy-flexibleterms was created factory? with theWhat following is the potential key questions: of the energy-flexible What is the energy factory? tran Whichsition? surrounding What is the conditions energy-flexible are necessary factory?for What the isenergy-flexible the potential factory?of the energy-flexible Which transitions factory? will Which the energy-flexible surrounding factory conditions initiate? are Innecessary our experience, for the energy-flexiblesketchnotes can factory? help to Which develop transitions a vision and will athe narrative, energy-flexible and might factory be a initiate? great exercise In our toexperience, condense sketchnotesfor experiments. can help to develop a vision and a narrative, and might be a great exercise to condense for experiments. 3.5. Theses Paper 3.5. Theses Paper For the one-day stakeholder dialogue, a thesis paper with five topics and three theses was created. Beforehand,For the moreone-day than stakeholder 40 theses were dialogue, collected a inthesis the research paper with team five and thentopics discussed and three and theses prioritised was created.with the Beforehand, Sociosphere. more The thesisthan 40 paper theses obviously were colle doescted not in coverthe research the whole team complex and then of energy-flexiblediscussed and prioritisedfactories extensively with the Sociosphere. but does serve The as thesis an impetus paper forobviously further does discussion. not cove Furthermore,r the whole itcomplex sensitizes of energy-flexibledifferent groups factories to the complexity extensively of the but subject. does serve as an impetus for further discussion. Furthermore,In a nutshell, it sensitizes to co-produce different knowledge groups to requiresthe complexity the ability of the and subject. will of both the researchers and the stakeholdersIn a nutshell, to to open co-produce themselves knowledge to different requires and sometimes the ability new and methods will of both from the various researchers disciplines and theand stakeholders contexts. It is crucialto open to themselves design a broad to portfoliodifferent ofand methods, sometimes triggering new diversemethods types from of thinkingvarious disciplinesand developing, and contexts. and factoring It is crucial in diff toerent design kinds a broad of learning portfolio and of personality methods, types.triggering diverse types of thinkingIn Section and7 developing,, we will critically and factoring reflect in on different what participation kinds of learning actually and personality means and types. reconsider commonIn Section misconceptions 7, we will of critically trandisciplinary reflect on approaches. what participation Additionally, actually we will means discuss and the reconsider outcomes common misconceptions of trandisciplinary approaches. Additionally, we will discuss the outcomes of the stakeholder consultation in the model region of Augsburg. In the next section, the simulation environment created for stakeholder discourse will be introduced. Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 8 of 24

Sustainabilityof the stakeholder 2020, 12, xconsultation FOR PEER REVIEW in the model region of Augsburg. In the next section, the simulation8 of 25 environment created for stakeholder discourse will be introduced. 4. Simulation Studies and Ecological Analysis 4. Simulation Studies and Ecological Analysis The transdisciplinary dialogue between stakeholders requires a suitable information base to investigateThe transdisciplinary and assess potential dialogue flexibility between measures, stakeholders especially requires in scenarios a suitable with information an increased base share to ofinvestigate renewable and power assess generation. potential flexibilityThus, we measures,developed especially a simulation in scenarios environment with to an analyze increased the share impact of ofrenewable energy-flexible power generation.factories on Thus,regional we supply developed systems, a simulation using the environment residual load to analyzeas a characteristic the impact for of theenergy-flexible evaluation. factoriesResidual onload regional is an indicator supplysystems, of the degree using of the supply residual by loadfluctuating as a characteristic renewable energy for the inevaluation. a balance Residual area. It is load calculated is an indicator as the differ of theence degree between of supply the bydemanded fluctuating electrical renewable power energy and inthe a powerbalance offered area. It by is calculatedfluctuating as renewable the difference energy between at a given the demanded time. For electrical instance, power a residual and the load power of - 50off eredMW bymeans fluctuating that 50 renewableMW more energy power at from a given renewable time. For energy instance, is generated a residual than load is of currently50 MW − consumedmeans that in 50 the MW area more under power consideration. from renewable Using energya mathematical is generated optimization than is currently model, the consumed flexibility in measuresthe area under are applied, consideration. with the Using aim of a reducing mathematical positive optimization as well as negative model, the peaks flexibility of the residual measures load. are Byapplied, reducing with the aimresidual of reducing load as positive the target as well of asoptimization, negative peaks the of local the residualtransmission load. Bybottlenecks reducing describedthe residual in loadthe aspaper’s the target motivation of optimization, are to be thecounteracted, local transmission as the need bottlenecks for grid-based described energy in the balancingpaper’s motivation is reduced. are to be counteracted, as the need for grid-based energy balancing is reduced. In order to carry out the optimization, it is necessary to model future supply scenarios and flexibilityflexibility measures.measures. This,This, as as well well as as the the optimization optimization model, model, will bewill described be described below. below. Then, theThen, results the resultsof the optimization of the optimization are visualized. are visualized.

4.1. Modeling Modeling of of the the Regional Regional Consumption and Sypply Scenario The aim of this step is to determine the residual load as the determining factor for the use of flexibilityﬂexibility forfor today today and and the futurethe future in the modelin the region.model The region. methodological The methodological approach is demonstratedapproach is demonstratedin Figure5. in Figure 5.

1 Selection of a climate protection scenario for Germany

2 3 Annual electricity consumption Annual renewable electricity generation in Germany in Germany

FREM FREM 4 5 Annual electricity consumption Annual renewable electricity generation in the model region in the model region

FREM FREM 6 8 Hourly load curve Hourly generation curve in the model region in the model region - 9 Residual load curve in the model region

Figure 5. Methodological approach approach for for determining th thee residual load for the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

The starting pointpoint forfor thethe analysisanalysis is is the the “Climate “Climate Protection Protection Scenario Scenario 2050 2050 [19 [19]] (Step (Step 1 in1 in Figure Figure5). 5).This This scenario, scenario, KS95, KS95, demonstrates demonstrates the necessary the necessa measurementsry measurements to keep the to globalkeep averagethe global temperature average welltemperature below 2well◦C, abovebelow pre-industrial2 °C, above pre-industrial levels [20]. The levels developments [20]. The developments in electricity consumptionin electricity consumptionin the commercial, in the commercial, industrial, and industrial, private and household private household sectors (Step sectors 2 in (Step Figure 2 in5), Figure as well 5), as well the as the expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy plants (Step 3 in Figure 5), form the basis for the following regionalization of electricity consumption and renewable electricity generation. In the next step, KS95 was regionalized with a regional model, called “FREM” [21,22], with suitable key figures at district level and then systematically continued for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 9 of 24 expansion of photovoltaics and wind energy plants (Step 3 in Figure5), form the basis for the following regionalization of electricity consumption and renewable electricity generation. In the next step, KS95 was regionalized with a regional model, called “FREM” [21,22], with suitable key figures at district level and then systematically continued for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 (Steps 4 and 5 in Figure5). Finally, consumption is adjusted on the basis of the development indicated in KS95. We chose the following approach to move from electricity consumption levels to electricity consumption load curves (Step 6 in Figure5). The corresponding standard load profiles, H0 and G0, [23] are used for the household and commercial, trade, and services sectors. These are then scaled according to annual consumption. In addition, the total load profile for Germany in each hour is scaled to the load of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) for each sector [24]. The industrial sector has its own load profiles, which were compiled using a regression analysis for various industry groups on the basis of real industrial load profiles [25]. In addition to the consumption load curve, the generation curve of renewable energy is required to determine the residual load. The starting point for quantifying the generation profiles of renewable energy in the model region (Step 7 in Figure5) is the analysis of the actual inventory and the potential, as well as the modelling of the expansion of the capacity of renewable energy. The inventory is defined as the complete list of available renewable power generation facilities in a region. It mainly results from the system registers of the transmission system operators and the results of the tendering procedures. For photovoltaic systems, the procedure differs between roof-mounted and ground-mounted systems. The historical expansion dynamics of the roof-mounted systems can be used to determine the future expansion per district. For ground-mounted systems, the future expansion is determined by a suitable weighting of area potential and yield potential. The area potential of wind turbines is made up of the results of a white area analysis and the designated wind suitability areas. Finally, by weighting the locations, the expansion of wind power is modelled. With the regionally available potential, the installed capacity of photovoltaic plants is expected to increase by 780 MW by 2050 under the given legal framework conditions. The usable potential of hydropower has already been tapped in the region. Depending on the specific conditions of the region, wind power accounts for a small proportion of the installed capacity. Hence, as electricity generation from biomass can be regulated, it is not included in the consideration of fluctuating generation. The total input of volatile renewable power generation in the modelled scenarios is therefore around 1500 MW in 2050. The generation profiles for photovoltaics and wind energy are based on the weather year 2012, as the yields in this year corresponded to the long-term average and are therefore regarded as representative. Based on the assumptions in KS95 for increasing energy efficiency, the demand for electrical energy will fall by around 1100 GWh by 2050. At the same time, due to the strong expansion of photovoltaic, the generation of volatile renewable energy plants will increase by around 70% to 2100 GWh. As a result, the residual load will be significantly increased by 2050. As can be seen in Figure6, the fluctuations in the energy supply, and thus also the residual load, are increasing due to the expansion of renewable energy. As a result, energy from the region is exported in some hours, mainly during the summer months, due to oversupply (negative residual load). The level of residual load depends strongly on the weather and the regional energy demand and is therefore subject to strong fluctuations. Around 400 MW is seen to occur at peak times over the year 2030. In the summer months of 2050, surpluses with an electrical output of up to 700 MW can be expected. Figure6 illustrates the necessary energy balancing over hours and days in the regional context. It clearly depicts that future challenges will consist of balancing the times of day with high and low residual loads on the one hand, and in the necessity of seasonal energy balancing on the other hand. The flexibility potential of the industry can be used in particular for intraday balancing. The next section describes which flexibility options are available in the model region. Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 10 of 24 Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 25

2030

400

-400

-800 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Residual Load [MW]

2050

400

-400

-800 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Residual Load [MW]

Figure 6. Residual load in the region by 2030 and 2050. Figure 6. Residual load in the region by 2030 and 2050. 4.2. Description of Exemplary Flexibility Measures 4.2. Description of Exemplary Flexibility Measures In the research project “SynErgie”, various energy-intensive industries were examined for flexible In the research project “SynErgie”, various energy-intensive industries were examined for processesflexible [26 processes,27]. For [26,27]. the model For region,the model we region, chose threewe chose exemplary three exemplary flexibility flexibility measures, measures, as they provideas a goodthey cross-section provide a ofgood the cross-section energy-intensive of the industries energy-intensive and are representativeindustries and ofare flexibilization representative measures of in accordanceflexibilization with measures a directive in accordance of the Association with a directive of German of the Association Engineers of [28 German]. In addition, Engineers these [28]. three industries,In addition, as well these as thethree other industries, energy-flexible as well as factoriesthe other inenergy-flexible the model region, factories exhibit in the furthermodel region, flexibilities. For thisexhibit reason, further the flexibilities. simulation For represents this reason, the the lower simulation limit represents of the available the lower potential. limit of the Table available1 gives an overviewpotential. of exemplary Table 1 gives flexibility an overview measures, of exempl whichary were flexibility chosen measures, and modeled which in were a simplified chosen and way for mathematicalmodeled in optimization. a simplified way for mathematical optimization. • The second column in Table 1 describes the exemplary flexibility measure in a foundry where The second column in Table1 describes the exemplary flexibility measure in a foundry where pig • pig iron and steel are melted in electric furnaces, followed by casting and machining. The molten ironmaterial and steel can are serve melted as inherent in electric energy furnaces, storage followed for a certain by castingperiod of and time machining. before it is Thefurther molten materialprocessed. can serve This allows as inherent a shift energyin the process storage to forstart a within certain predefined period of restrictions. time before Therefore, it is further processed.furnace Thiscapacities, allows the a required shift in thecasting process quantity to start, and withinthe start predefined times of subsequent restrictions. processes Therefore, furnacehave capacities, to be taken the into required account. casting Thus, a quantity, technical andflexibility the start potential times of of around subsequent 6 MW, processes in a time have to bewindow taken into between account. 10:00 Thus, p.m. and a technical 02:00 p.m., flexibility is given potentialevery day of[29]; around 6 MW, in a time window • The paper industry requires wood-based pulp, which is produced in thermomechanical pulp between 10:00 p.m. and 02:00 p.m., is given every day [29]; (TMP)-plants and further processed in paper machines. In the TMP-process, steam is added to The paper industry requires wood-based pulp, which is produced in thermomechanical pulp • wood chips at high temperatures to defiber them. A downstream vat allows the storage of the (TMP)-plantsproduced pulp and furtherand thus processed enables a inbrief paper shut machines.down of the In TMP the plant TMP-process, after overproduction. steam is added to woodStorage chips volume at high and raw temperatures material requirements to defiber for them. subsequent A downstream processes are vat limiting allows factors the storage for of the producedthe availability pulp of and the flexibility thus enables measure, a brief which shutdown must be ofconsidered. the TMP In plant the given after example, overproduction. the Storageflexibility volume measure, and rawin the material form of an requirements interruption to for thesubsequent TMP plant, leads processes to a 2.5 h are load limiting shedding factors for theof 35 availability MW (Table of1). the This flexibility flexibility measure,measure can which only be must used be once considered. a day [30]; In the given example, • the flexibilityGraphitization measure, is the most in the energy-intensive form of an interruption process step in to the the production TMP plant, of graphite leads toelectrodes a 2.5 h load sheddingused in of the 35 recycling MW (Table of steel1). This in arc flexibility furnaces. measureIn this process can onlystep, becarbon used blanks once are a day heated [30]; up to above 2600 °C until a graphite structure is formed [31]. The load of the graphitization process Graphitization is the most energy-intensive process step in the production of graphite electrodes • can be reduced for about 15 min without affecting the quality of the final product, provided that usedthe in energy the recycling input lost of by steel the in pause arc furnaces.is compensated In this later process in the step,process. carbon Due to blanks the characteristics are heated up to above 2600 ◦C until a graphite structure is formed [31]. The load of the graphitization process can be reduced for about 15 min without affecting the quality of the final product, provided that the energy input lost by the pause is compensated later in the process. Due to the characteristics of the heating curve, this compensation leads to a higher overall energy demand. Consequently, SustainabilitySustainabilitySustainability 20202020 2020,, 12,12 12,, x,x x FORFOR FOR PEERPEER PEER REVIEWREVIEW REVIEW 11 11 11 of of of 25 25 25

Sustainabilityofofof thethe the2020 heatingheating heating, 12, 360 curve,curve, curve, thisthis this compensationcompensation compensation leadsleads leads toto to aa a higherhigher higher overalloverall overall energyenergy energy demand.demand. demand. Consequently,Consequently, Consequently,11 of 24 withwithwith thisthis this exemplaryexemplary exemplary flexibilityflexibility flexibility measure,measure, measure, aa a loadload load sheddingshedding shedding ofof of 66 6 MWMW MW isis is possible,possible, possible, whichwhich which hashas has toto to bebe be withcompensatedcompensatedcompensated this exemplary laterlater later inin ﬂexibilityin thethe the processprocess process measure, withwith with aa a powerpower apower load inputinput input shedding ofof of 88 8 MWMW MW of 6 (Table(Table (Table MW 1) is1) 1) [32]. possible,[32]. [32]. which has to be compensated later in the process with a power input of 8 MW (Table1)[32]. TableTableTable 1.1. 1. ExemplaryExemplary Exemplary flexibilityflexibility flexibility measures.measures. measures.

FoundryFoundryFoundry PulpPulpPulp ProductionProduction Production GraphitizationGraphitizationGraphitization Table 1. Exemplary ﬂexibility measures. LoadLoadLoad shifting:shifting: shifting: reducingreducing reducing Foundry Pulp Productionloadloadload Graphitization duringduring during thethe the LoadLoadLoad activation:activation: activation: shiftingshifting shifting FlexibilityFlexibilityFlexibility LoadLoadLoad shedding:shedding: shedding: pausingpausing pausing graphitizationgraphitizationgraphitization processprocess process andand and thethethe processprocess process startstart start ofof of aa a Load shifting: reducing load measuremeasuremeasure Load activation: shifting the thethethe TMP-processTMP-process TMP-process duringcompensatingcompensatingcompensating the graphitization thethe the Flexibility meltingmeltingmelting processprocess process Load shedding: pausing the process start of a process and compensating the measure TMP-process sheddedsheddedshedded loadload load laterlater later inin in thethe the melting process sheddedprocessprocessprocess load later in the process

PPP PPP PPP ΔPΔPΔP == = ΔPΔPΔP == = ΔPΔPΔP == = 88 8 MWMW MW 6.46.46.4 MWMW MW 353535 MWMW MW ΔPΔPΔP == = 66 6 MWMW MW tt t tt t tt t ΔtΔtΔt == = ΔtΔtΔt == = Δt = 2,5h ΔtΔt = =2,5h 2,5h ΔtΔtΔt == = 2,5h2,5h 2,5h 0,25h0,25h0,25h 0,25h0,25h0,25h

TimeTimeTime NoNoNoNo timetime time time restriction,restriction, restriction, restriction, ∇∇ ∇ 10:00–14:0010:00–14:0010:00–14:0010:00–14:00 h hh h NoNoNoNo timetime time time restrictionrestriction restriction windowwindowwindow maximummaximummaximummaximum onceonce onceonce a a a dayday day Process interruption leads to Furnace capacity; Filling level of downstream ProcessProcessProcess interruptioninterruption interruption leadsleads leads FillingFillingFilling levellevel level ofof of an extended process with startFurnaceFurnaceFurnace times of capacity;capacity; capacity; subsequent∇∇∇ material storage; tototo anan an extendedextended extended processprocess process Restrictions higher total energy demand; processes; rawdownstreamdownstreamdownstream material requirement materialmaterial material of startstartstart timestimes times ofof of subsequentsubsequent subsequent withwithwith higherhigher higherstart timestotaltotal total energy ofenergy energy RestrictionsRestrictionsRestrictions required casting quantity subsequentstorage;storage;storage; processes∇∇∇ processes;processes;processes;∇∇∇ subsequentdemand;demand;demand; processes∇∇∇ rawrawraw materialmaterial material requirementrequirement requirement requiredrequiredrequired castingcasting casting quantityquantity quantity startstartstart timestimes times ofof of subsequentsubsequent subsequent ofofof subsequentsubsequent subsequent processesprocesses processes 4.3. Optimization Module processesprocessesprocesses

4.3.4.3.4.3.The OptimizationOptimization Optimization objective ofModuleModule Module the optimization is to reduce positive and negative residual load peaks by the use of flexibility measures of energy-flexible factories. Smoothing the residual load is the basic goal of TheTheThe objectiveobjective objective ofof of thethe the optimizationoptimization optimization isis is toto to reducereduce reduce popo positivesitivesitive andand and negativenegative negative residualresidual residual loadload load peakspeaks peaks byby by thethe the regional energy balancing. Therefore, the flexibility measures are modeled as residual load increase useuseuse ofof of flexibilityflexibility flexibility measuresmeasures measures ofof of energy-flexibleenergy-flexible energy-flexible factories.factories. factories. SmoothingSmoothing Smoothing thethe the residualresidual residual loadload load isis is thethe the basicbasic basic goalgoal goal mechanisms and residual load reduction mechanisms, respectively. We apply a simulation model to ofofof regional regionalregional energy energyenergy balancing. balancing.balancing. Therefore, Therefore,Therefore, the thethe flex flexflexibilityibilityibility measures measuresmeasures are areare modeled modeledmodeled as asas residual residualresidual load loadload compareincreaseincreaseincrease two mechanismsmechanisms mechanisms scenarios and [and 33and]: residualresidual residual loadload load reductionreduction reduction mechanisms,mechanisms, mechanisms, respectively.respectively. respectively. WeWe We applyapply apply aa a simulationsimulation simulation modelmodelmodelScenario toto to comparecompare compare 1: a random twotwo two scenariosscenarios scenarios use of the [33]:[33]: [33]: measures, to simulate an untargeted use of the production facilities • •• • asScenario comparisonScenarioScenario 1: 1:1: a a ascenario; random randomrandom use useuse of ofof the thethe measures, measures,measures, to toto simulate simulatesimulate an anan untargeted untargeteduntargeted use useuse of ofof the thethe production productionproduction Scenariofacilitiesfacilitiesfacilities 2: asas useas comparisoncomparison comparison of flexibility scenario;scenario; scenario; measures with the objective to reduce residual load peaks. • •• • ScenarioScenarioScenario 2:2: 2: useuse use ofof of flexibilityflexibility flexibility measuresmeasures measures withwith with thth thee e objectiveobjective objective toto to reducereduce reduce residualresidual residual loadload load peaks.peaks. peaks. By comparing the random use in Scenario 1 with the energy-flexible use in Scenario 2, the potential of an intelligentByByBy comparing comparingcomparing control the thethe of random random flexibilityrandom use useuse measures in inin Scenario ScenarioScenario to smooth1 1 1 with withwith the thethe energy-flexible residualenergy-flexibleenergy-flexible load can use useuse be in inin assessed. Scenario ScenarioScenario 2, 2,2, the thethe potentialpotentialpotential ofof of anan an intelligentintelligent intelligent controlcontrol control ofof of flexibilityflexibility flexibility measuresmeasures measures toto to smoothsmooth smooth thethe the residualresidual residual loadload load cancan can bebe be assessed.assessed. assessed. 4.4. Results of the Optimization Studies 4.4.4.4.4.4. ResultsResults Results ofof of thethe the OptimizationOptimization Optimization StudiesStudies Studies The analysis of the supply data of the model region has demonstrated that a positive contribution of industrialTheTheThe analysisanalysis flexibilityanalysis ofofof measures thethethe supplysupplysupply to regional datadatadata ofofof energy thethethe modemodemode balancingll l regionregionregion is has possiblehashas demonstrateddemonstrateddemonstrated and meaningful. thatthatthat aa a positiveWepositivepositive discuss thecontributioncontribution targetcontribution year 2030 ofofof industrialindustrial asindustrial an example. flexibilityflexibilityflexibility The described measuresmeasuresmeasures flexibility tototo regionalregionalregional measures energyenergyenergy were balancingbalancingbalancing applied isis inis possible accordancepossiblepossible andandand with themeaningful.meaningful. correspondingmeaningful. WeWe We discuss restrictions.discussdiscuss thethe the targettarget target In the yearyear year considered 20302030 2030 asas as anan an year, example.example. example. 1092 startTheThe The describeddescribed timesdescribed of foundry’s flexibilityflexibility flexibility meltingmeasuresmeasures measures processes werewere were wereappliedappliedapplied postponed inin in accordanceaccordance accordance by the with optimization,with with thethe the correspondingcorresponding corresponding the pulp restrictions.restrictions. productionrestrictions. InIn In was thethe the pausedconsideredconsidered considered 364 year,year, times,year, 10921092 1092 and startstart start the timestimes times flexibility ofof of foundry’sfoundry’sfoundry’s meltingmelting melting processesprocesses processes werewere were postponedpostponed postponed byby by thth thee e optimization,optimization, optimization, thethe the pulppulp pulp productionproduction production waswas was pausedpaused paused measure, interrupting the graphitization processes, was used 126 times. As a result, 14 GWh of energy 364364364 times,times, times, andand and thethe the flexibilityflexibility flexibility measure,measure, measure, interruptinginterrupting interrupting thethe the graphitizationgraphitization graphitization processes,processes, processes, waswas was usedused used 126126 126 times.times. times. has been shifted from low-energy times to phases with a high share of renewable energy power AsAsAs aa a result,result, result, 1414 14 GWhGWh GWh ofof of energyenergy energy hashas has beenbeen been shiftedshifted shifted fromfrom from low-energylow-energy low-energy timestimes times toto to phasesphases phases withwith with aa a highhigh high shareshare share ofof of production. This amount of energy equals 200 maximum load hours of a typical 70 MW combined renewablerenewablerenewable energyenergy energy powerpower power production.production. production. ThisThis This amountamount amount ofof of energyenergy energy equalsequals equals 200200 200 maximummaximum maximum loadload load hourshours hours ofof of aa a cycletypicaltypicaltypical power 7070 70 MWMW plant.MW combinedcombined combined Peak loads cyclecycle cycle of powerpower power the residual plant.plant. plant. PeakPeak Peak load loadsloads wereloads ofof alsoof thethe the reduced residualresidual residual load byload load 22 werewere were and alsoalso 28also MW, reducedreduced reduced respectively. byby by 2222 22 If this was to be achieved with a lithium–ion storage, it would require twice the power of the largest commercially used battery storage in Europe. [34] Figure7 illustrates an exemplary summer week of the analysis, in 2030. The residual load without the use of the flexibilities is depicted in red. The blue load profile represents the reduction in load Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 25

and 28 MW, respectively. If this was to be achieved with a lithium–ion storage, it would require twice Sustainabilitythe power2020 of, 12 the, 360 largest commercially used battery storage in Europe. [34] 12 of 24 Figure 7 illustrates an exemplary summer week of the analysis, in 2030. The residual load without the use of the flexibilities is depicted in red. The blue load profile represents the reduction in peaksload due peaks to ﬂexible due to flexible starts, andstarts, the and pausing the pausing and interruptionand interruption of theof the processes. processes. In In this this week, week, about 330 MWhabout 330 were MWh shifted were atshifted times atof times electrical of electrical overproduction. overproduction. Peak Peak loads loads were were reduced reduced by 36.8 36.8 MW (negativeMW (negative residual residual load) and load) 41.4 and MW 41.4 (positiveMW (positive residual residual load), load), respectively. respectively.

600

400

200

0 Residual load inMW -200

-400

ohneWithout Flexibilisierung flexibility mitWith Flexibilisierung flexibility measures measures

FigureFigure 7. Residual 7. Residual load load in in an an exemplary exemplary summer summer week week in in2030 2030 for forall discussed all discussed flexibility ﬂexibility measures measures..

ForFor the the example example of of pulp pulp production, production, Figure 88 depidepictscts the the temporal temporal effects e ffects of applying of applying flexibility flexibility measuresmeasures to theto the processes processes byby a comparison comparison of ofthe the starting starting points points with random with random use and useoptimized and optimized use useof the the measure. measure. The Theabscissa abscissa of the ofdiagram the diagram depicts the depicts time of the day time with ofa highlighted day with aday highlighted shift. The day shift.ordinate The ordinate represents represents the days of the the days week. of Without the week. optimization, Without the optimization, flexibility measure the flexibility for pausing measure for pausingthe TMP theprocess TMP is processoften placed is often outside placed the day outside shift. the In business day shift. practice, In business this is practice,often due thisto the is often availability of staff and logistical goals. With the optimization, the appropriate times are postponed due to the availability of staff and logistical goals. With the optimization, the appropriate times are to the evening hours, with high energy consumption and decreasing solar energy supply. Thus, when postponed to the evening hours, with high energy consumption and decreasing solar energy supply. implementing the energy-flexible factory, many internal factors must be taken into account. Among Thus,others, when these implementing can include thethe energy-flexibleshift times of employees, factory, manyeffects internal on subsequent factors processes, must be takenand delivery into account. Amongdates. others, Therefore, these appropriate can include econ theomic shift incentives times of employees,are necessary e fftoects justify on subsequentthe effort involved processes, in and deliveryenergy-oriented dates. Therefore, planning appropriate and control economictasks. incentives are necessary to justify the effort involved Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 25 in energy-oriented planning and control tasks.

Su7 Day shift Sa 6

Fr 5

Th4 Weekday We3

Tu2

Mo1 00:00 am 06:00 am 06:00 pm 11:59 pm

Abschaltrandomuse ung of Last Abschaltoptimized ung use Last of (optimiert ) flexibility measures flexibility measures

FigureFigure 8. Temporal 8. Temporal eﬀects effects of applying of applying ﬂexibility flexibility measures measures to to the the TMP TMP process.process.

4.5. Ecological Impact The life cycle assessment (LCA), with the aim of quantifying the ecological impacts of the use of energy flexibility measures in energy-intensive industrial processes, was based on the standards ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. Based on the reference processes and their exemplary modelled flexibility measures and production quantities, we analyzed both internal—from the companies’ perspective— and regional—concerning the effects on the model region—impacts. The annual production of each reference process was selected as the functional unit. When defining the impact categories, the focus was on global warming potential, renewable and non-renewable primary energy, and nitrogen oxide emissions. [35]

4.5.1. Internal, Company-Related Perspective The results of the evaluation are presented in Table 2. For the reference processes—foundry and pulp production—the investigation revealed no relevant energetic or material effects. For the graphitization process, an increased consumption of electricity, changes in cooling water demand, and changes in consumption of and emissions from packing masses (oxidation) were identified.

Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 13 of 24

4.5. Ecological Impact The life cycle assessment (LCA), with the aim of quantifying the ecological impacts of the use of energy flexibility measures in energy-intensive industrial processes, was based on the standards ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. Based on the reference processes and their exemplary modelled flexibility measures and production quantities, we analyzed both internal—from the companies’ perspective—and regional—concerning the effects on the model region—impacts. The annual production of each reference process was selected as the functional unit. When defining the impact categories, the focus was on global warming potential, renewable and non-renewable primary energy, and nitrogen oxide emissions [35].

4.5.1. Internal, Company-Related Perspective The results of the evaluation are presented in Table2. For the reference processes—foundry and pulp production—the investigation revealed no relevant energetic or material eﬀects. For the graphitization process, an increased consumption of electricity, changes in cooling water demand, and changes in consumption of and emissions from packing masses (oxidation) were identiﬁed.

Table 2. Changes in the material, energy and mass ﬂows (target year: 2030, internal perspective).

Foundry Pulp Production Graphitization Flexibility measure Load activation Load shedding Load shifting and frequency of 1092 times 364 times 136 times use per year Prolonged process, Effect on process No effect No effect compensation of lost heating duration times necessary Energy: no influence on Energy: no influence on Energy: increase in the annual annual electricity demand; annual electricity demand; electricity demand; Material: increase in cooling Effect on life cycle Material: no influence on Material: no influence on water demand and increased inventory consumptions and wastes; consumptions and wastes; oxidation of the packing mass; Emission: no influence on Emission: no influence on Emission: increased oxidation sum of caused emissions sum of caused emissions of the packing mass

4.5.2. External Perspective of the Model Region The results in 4.2 show that the use of flexibility measures leads to changes in the residual load. Table2 also demonstrates that, apart from in one scenario, the required energy and material flows remain the same throughout the application of the flexibility measures. Only in the case of graphitization is more energy and material required due to the shift, and additional emissions are released. However, the shifting of 14 GWh of energy from low-energy times to phases with a high share of renewable energy power production has an effect on the life cycle inventory, which is defined by the input and output flows for the analyzed system, in the form of the displacement of conventional energy generation. Therefore, the ecological impacts of the use of flexibility measures were determined based on the so-called displacement mix. This approach attempts to assess the power generation option that is no longer used due to flexibility measures. The environmental impacts resulting from the use of the electricity mix are saved if renewable electricity is used as a result of energy flexibilization. [19] To illustrate the greenhouse gas savings, emission savings are presented as a saved, full-load hour of a combined cycle power plant. Table3 depicts the life cycle impact of flexibility measures using a combined cycle power plant as reference. If this amount of electricity—corresponding to the residual load avoided in the year 2030—is not needed, environmental pollution is avoided. Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 14 of 24

Table 3. Reduction potential due to flexibility measures by using electricity from natural gas for shiftable energy without flexiblity measures and renewable energy with flexibility measures. (target year: 2030, regional perspective).

Primary Energy Primary Energy Global Warming Consumption, Consumption, Nitrogen Oxides Potential Non-Renewable [GJ] Renewable [GJ] [kg NO -Emissions] [t CO -Equivalents] x 2 (Calorific Value) (Calorific Value) Reference system: electricity from 6994 113,917 165 5293 natural gas 1 1 technology mix: proportionate direct generation and cogeneration, combustion and flue gas cleaning technology; 486 g CO2-equ./kWh (GaBi Professional database v8.7 SP36).

Finally, under the underlying assumptions, the flexibility measures examined and the associated consumption of renewable energy can be assessed as advantageous from an ecological perspective. Due to the increased share of renewable energy in electricity generation, the identified negative effects of additional electricity consumption caused by the use of flexibility measures are mitigated.

5. Regional Market Mechanisms Based on the co-creative discourse and the simulation results, an analysis of available regional market mechanisms and a necessary new one for economic incentives were made. In the course of the energy transition, the share of photovoltaic and wind energy plants installed at low voltage levels in the grid is rising. Wind and sunshine, and thus also the production of electricity from photovoltaic plants and wind turbines, are subject to both daily and seasonal ﬂuctuations [36]. In Germany, the current uniformal price system assumes a copper plate. Consequently, physical restrictions, such as the capacities of transmission lines burdened by increasingly ﬂuctuating feed-in, are not taken into account when electricity prices are determined on the electricity markets.

5.1. The Need for Regional Market Mechanisms Due to the increasingly fluctuating supply of renewable energy, the distribution and transmission grids are increasingly stressed. Grid bottlenecks cause the curtailment of renewable power production to prevent grid failures. At one point in 2018, up to 5.8 GW—equivalent to the output of almost four nuclear power plants—of renewable electricity generation remained unused by feed-in management. In the first three months of 2019, in 86.3% of cases, grid bottlenecks in the transmission grid led to feed-in management. Nevertheless, 77.5% of the deregulated electricity was switched off in the distribution grid [3]. An efficient and sustainable energy system must avoid such waste. For this reason, regional flexibility is becoming increasingly important alongside the existing trans-regional market mechanisms to avoid feed-in management in distribution grids. As mentioned in the introduction, redispatch and feed-in management are associated with high costs. These are currently paid for by all electricity customers. Appropriate regional market mechanisms for flexibility can contribute to this, thereby ensuring that everyone has to pay less for electricity [37]. However, there are currently only few incentives at the regional level to effectively counteract this undesirable development and use regional electricity surpluses, for example, in industrial companies [38,39]. In the following, we analyze regional and trans-regional market mechanisms and indicate which kinds of mechanisms will be necessary in the future.

5.2. Classification of Market Machinisms For the analysis of existing and the development of future market mechanisms, we use four dimensions to cluster those mechanisms. The first dimension describes whether the flexibility of a mechanism is applied regionally or trans-regionally. The second dimension contains the information whether the mechanism is already in use today or represents future possibilities. The third dimension Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 15 of 24 refers to the mode of operation of the market mechanism and thus to the purpose for which it is used. The explicit consideration of this dimension emphasizes that individual market mechanisms contribute to the stability of the electricity grid in different ways:

Self-optimization: From a company perspective, this mode of operation aims to optimize • generation from own-power generation plants (e.g., photovoltaic or gas power plants). In addition, self-optimization can also reduce levies/charges or grid fees; Market-serving: This mode of operation describes market mechanisms that use price fluctuations • directly at wholesale markets, such as the day-ahead market, or indirectly via time-variable tariffs. These mechanisms reduce market price volatility and enable energy-flexible factories to minimize their electricity procurement costs with their flexibilities; Network-serving: This mode of operation describes market mechanisms that reduce network • congestion; SustainabilitySystem-serving: 2020, 12, x FOR This PEER mode REVIEW of operation describes market mechanisms that contribute 16 of to 25 the • system-wide security of supply. • System-serving: This mode of operation describes market mechanisms that contribute to the Finally,system-wide the fourth security dimension of supply. indicates to which network state the individual mechanism can be applied. For this assignment, the traffic light concept of the German Federal Association of Energy and Finally, the fourth dimension indicates to which network state the individual mechanism can be Water Management [40] was used, which constitutes the current network status using the three traffic applied. For this assignment, the traffic light concept of the German Federal Association of Energy light colors: and Water Management [40] was used, which constitutes the current network status using the three trafficGreen: light In colors: the green traffic light phase there is no congestion and there are no critical network states. • • ThisGreen: allows In forthe systemgreen traffic and market light phase flexibility there to is beno traded. congestion The distributionand there are system no critical operator’s network task is limitedstates. This to monitoring allows for thesystem grid, and reactmarket if theflexibility network to statusbe traded. changes; The distribution system Yellow:operator’s In the task yellow is limited traffic to light monitoring phase, the the distribution grid, and react system if the operator network calls status for changes; flexibility offered • • byYellow: other players, In the yellow as a bottleneck traffic light is becoming phase, the apparent distribution in the system network. operator Such calls a grid for bottleneck flexibility is predictedoffered onby theother basis players, of forecasts; as a bottleneck is becoming apparent in the network. Such a grid Red:bottleneck In the red is predicted traffic light on phase,the basis the of distribution forecasts; network operator must also intervene outside • • theRed: market, In the as red the traffic network light stability phase, the is directlydistributi endangered.on network operator must also intervene outside the market, as the network stability is directly endangered. 5.3. Discrepancy between Regional and Trans-Regional Market Mechanisms 5.3. Discrepancy between Regional and Trans-Regional Market Mechanisms At the trans-regional level, there are numerous options for market flexibility in established At the trans-regional level, there are numerous options for market flexibility in established markets: energy-only markets, balancing power, and switchable loads. At the regional level, there markets: energy-only markets, balancing power, and switchable loads. At the regional level, there are several possible mechanisms: equalization within the balancing group, regional over-the-counter are several possible mechanisms: equalization within the balancing group, regional over-the-counter contracts, optimization of own consumption, load management, and telephone emergency shutdown. contracts, optimization of own consumption, load management, and telephone emergency However, as there are no markets offering these services, these are usually associated with high effort. shutdown. However, as there are no markets offering these services, these are usually associated with Moreover,high effort. such Moreover, mechanisms such do mechanisms not take short-term do not take adjustments short-term into adjustments account. Figureinto account.9 puts the Figure market 9 mechanismsputs the market mentioned mechanisms into context. mentioned into context.

Market Mechanisms

market-serving self-optimization network-serving system-serving

equalization regional over- optimization telephone energy only within the load switchable balancing the-counter of own emergency markets balancing management loads power contracts consumption shutdown group

FigureFigure 9. 9.Market Market mechanisms mechanisms classiﬁedclassified according to to their their intended intended use use.

At the regional level, regional markets will be needed in the future where companies can trade flexibility in non-critical network states. In addition, companies may offer flexibility to the responsible distribution grid operator on a market which can be used preventively to avoid grid congestion [39,41]. The regionalization of the balancing power market is another option for using flexibility regionally. In the model region Augsburg, various possibilities will be tested in practice. A platform will enable network operators to demand, and industrial companies to offer, regional flexibility. This enables both the suppliers and purchasers of flexibility to employ new regional market mechanisms, and thus supports the use of regional electricity surpluses. For this purpose, in 2020, how the communication between the network operator and the energy-flexible factories can be structured must first be elaborated, as well as which information must be exchanged in this respect. Subsequently, the extent to which regional flexibility can contribute to the electricity balance in the model region Augsburg will be evaluated. Consequently, appropriate incentives for flexibility through regional market mechanisms lead to the increased use of flexibility, allow a higher share of renewable energy and, ultimately, a reduction in the use of fossil fuels. Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 16 of 24

At the regional level, regional markets will be needed in the future where companies can trade flexibility in non-critical network states. In addition, companies may offer flexibility to the responsible distribution grid operator on a market which can be used preventively to avoid grid congestion [39,41]. The regionalization of the balancing power market is another option for using flexibility regionally. In the model region Augsburg, various possibilities will be tested in practice. A platform will enable network operators to demand, and industrial companies to offer, regional flexibility. This enables both the suppliers and purchasers of flexibility to employ new regional market mechanisms, and thus supports the use of regional electricity surpluses. For this purpose, in 2020, how the communication between the network operator and the energy-flexible factories can be structured must first be elaborated, as well as which information must be exchanged in this respect. Subsequently, the extent to which regional flexibility can contribute to the electricity balance in the model region Augsburg will be evaluated. Consequently, appropriate incentives for flexibility through regional market mechanisms lead to the increased use of flexibility, allow a higher share of renewable energy and, ultimately, Sustainabilitya reduction 2020 in, the 12, x use FOR of PEER fossil REVIEW fuels. 17 of 25

6. Integration Integration and and Comparison Comparison Demand-side energyenergy flexibility flexibility of of the the industrial industrial sector sector is the is focus the offocus this project.of this project. However, However, whether whetherits integration its integration into the energy into the supply energy system supply provides system a provides significant a significant added value, added has tovalue, be determined has to be determinedby a holistic by analysis a holistic of analysis its potential of its andpotential characteristics and characteristics compared compared with other with flexibility other flexibility options. options.A supplementary A supplementary analysis, analysis, described described in detail in [detail42], presents in [42], thepresents characteristics the characteristics of non-industrial of non- industrialflexibilities flexibilities and gives and an estimategives an ofestimate theircurrent of their ascurrent well asas futurewell as potential future potential in themodel in the model region regionAugsburg. Augsburg. Of most Of importance most importance are the are flexibility the flexibility of: of: • DSM in households; • DSM in households; • Heat pumps with storage tanks and auxiliary power-to-heat devices; • • Electric vehicles; • • Battery systems connected to photovoltaicphotovoltaic systems in the residential sector.sector. • Boundary conditionsconditions for for the the evaluation evaluation of the of potentialthe potential of each of flexibility each flexibility technology technology are extracted are extractedfrom [19] from and [ 43[19]], combinedand [43], combined with regional with data region fromal data the regionalizedfrom the regionalized energy system energy model system of [model21,22]. ofHere, [21,22]. the analysisHere, the focuses analysis on focuses the estimation on the estima of on-switchabletion of on-switchable loads. The load exacts. The methodology exact methodology of flexible ofpotential flexible estimation, potential estimation, which diff erswhich by technology,differs by technology, is described is indescribed [42] in detail. in [42] in detail. The results for flexible flexible energy per year are depicted in Figure 1010..

900

800 DSM in industry /WWF-01[44] 17/

700 DSM in industry /GRUB-01[45] 17/ 600 Power-to-Heat 500 Electric vehicles 400 DSM - Households 300 model region [GWh] Battery storage - Solar scenario one 200 charging cycle per day Battery storage - Reference scenario one 100 charging cycle per day

Annual flexibile electricity consumption in the electricity flexibile consumption in Annual Augsburg 0 2030 2040 2050 Year Figure 10. OverviewOverview of of the the flexible ﬂexible electricity electricity demand demand of of the the considered considered flexibility ﬂexibility technologies technologies in the model region Augsburg.

The results indicate that the flexibility potential of DSM in the industry evaluated in [43] dominates every year. However, estimation of potential seems to be highly sensitive to assumptions, as the comparison between the evaluated industrial flexibility in [44] and [43] shows. Due to limited information on the methodology of flexibility determination in these sources, a holistic comparison of the results is not possible. In the future, electric vehicles and power-to-heat in households will become much more relevant, as these are expected to be dominant technologies. However, it should be noted that in this estimation restrictions due to limited heat storage capacities are not included. A completely different picture emerges when the comparison is not made on the basis of energy, but on overall available electric power (in GW, for further details see Figure 11 and [42]). Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 17 of 24

The results indicate that the flexibility potential of DSM in the industry evaluated in [43] dominates every year. However, estimation of potential seems to be highly sensitive to assumptions, as the comparison between the evaluated industrial flexibility in [44] and [43] shows. Due to limited information on the methodology of flexibility determination in these sources, a holistic comparison of the results is not possible. In the future, electric vehicles and power-to-heat in households will become much more relevant, as these are expected to be dominant technologies. However, it should be noted that in this estimation restrictions due to limited heat storage capacities are not included. A completely different picture emerges when the comparison is not made on the basis of energy, Sustainabilitybut on overall 2020, available12, x FOR PEER electric REVIEW power (in GW, for further details see Figure 11 and [42]). 18 of 25

Electric vehicles - Available charging 1.000 power of charging units 900 Electric vehicles - Available vehicles at 800 charging stations Power-to-Heat - Maximum (assumption 700 1.000 full load hours) 600 Power-to-Heat - Minimum (assumption 2.000 full load hours) 500 Battery storage - Solar scenario one 400 charging cycle per day Battery storage - Reference scenario one 300 charging cycle per day 200 DSM in industry according to [44] and [45] model region [MW] region model 100 DSM in households - at times of daily 0 maximum load Flexibilizable capacity in the Augsburg 2030 2040 2050 DSM in households - at times of daily Year minimum load FigureFigure 11. OverviewOverview of of the the flexible ﬂexible electric electric power power of of the the considered considered flexibility ﬂexibility technologies technologies in in the the modelmodel region region Augsburg. Augsburg.

FirstlyFirstly it it becomes becomes clear clear that that the the available available installe installedd charging charging capacity capacity for for electric electric vehicle vehicle charging charging stationsstations fromfrom 20402040 represents represents the the largest largest flexibility flexibi potential.lity potential. However, However, if the averageif the average available available charging chargingcapacity ofcapacity electric of vehicles electric is vehicles used, the is flexibilityused, the potentialflexibility is potential lower than is lower those ofthan power-to-heat, those of power-to- battery heat,storage, battery and storage, DSM in industry.and DSM in industry. Secondly,Secondly, power-to-heat technologies technologies and and electric electric cars cars will significantly significantly dominate industrial flexibilityflexibility in in the the future. future. This This is isdue due to the tothe fact fact that that industrial industrial plants plants have have high highoperating operating hours, hours, and thereforeand therefore the installed the installed electrical electrical power power per perenergy energy demand demand is islow, low, even even at at high high annual annual energy energy consumption.consumption. Similar Similar to to power-to-heat power-to-heat devices, devices, battery battery storage storage systems systems have have very very low low operating hours,hours, so so even even their their installed installed flexible flexible electrical electrical powe powerr is is slightly slightly higher higher than than that that of of industry. industry. In In terms terms ofof both both flexible flexible energy energy and capacity, DSM in households will onlyonly havehave aa minorminor rolerole inin thethe region.region. AsAs well as to thethe flexibilityflexibility potentialpotential of of the the di differentfferent technologies, technologies, the the following following considerations considerations are areimportant. important. Overall, Overall, industrial industrial flexibilities flexibilities have thehave advantage the advantage of significantly of significantly higher specific higher electricalspecific electricalpower per power connected per unitconnected than non-industrial unit than non-indu flexibilities,strial which flexibilities, results in which a lower results coordination in a lower effort. coordinationFurthermore, effort. in industrial Furthermore, plants, in technicians industrial areplants, always technicians on site, are so technicalalways on adaptations site, so technical can be adaptationstranslated into can practice be translated more easily.into practice more easily. However,However, non-industrial non-industrial flexibilities flexibilities are are connected connected at at the the same same voltage voltage level level as as the the majority majority of of photovoltaicphotovoltaic systems. ThisThis meansmeans thatthat grid grid problems problems caused caused locally locally by by renewable renewable energy, energy, such such as grid as gridoverload overload due to due generation to generation peaks, canpeaks, be better can solvedbe better by localsolved non-industrial by local non-industrial flexibilities. Moreover, flexibilities. the Moreover,integration the of non-industrialintegration of flexibilitiesnon-industrial into theflexibi energylities supply into the system energy also supply allows system private also individuals allows privateto actively individuals contribute to toactively the energy contribute system to transformation the energy system [45, 46transformation]. [45,46]. Overall,Overall, the the analysis analysis of of the the different different characteristics of of the the potentials indicates indicates that that these these two two typestypes of of flexibilities flexibilities complement complement each each other other well, well, while while they they compete compete equally equally for for the the monetization monetization of flexibility.of flexibility.

7. Participation Creates Acceptance? Reflections on Common Misconceptions and Pitfalls In this section, we will first critically reflect on common misconceptions of participatory research based on the co-produced knowledge from the model region Augsburg and further transdisciplinary projects. Then, we will outline the most important outcomes of the stakeholder dialogue in the model region of Augsburg.

Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 18 of 24

7. Participation Creates Acceptance? Reflections on Common Misconceptions and Pitfalls In this section, we will first critically reflect on common misconceptions of participatory research based on the co-produced knowledge from the model region Augsburg and further transdisciplinary projects. Then, we will outline the most important outcomes of the stakeholder dialogue in the model region of Augsburg.

7.1. Misconceptions and Pitfalls

7.1.1. Misconception One: Participation Creates Acceptance In many cases, participation seems to be considered as a means to create acceptance of techno-social innovations [47]. Additionally, in many cases, “participation” does not involve any more than informing the public, ergo communication (see misconception three). Trust is fundamental for creating acceptance, and, to gain trust, stakeholders must feel taken seriously, which means that they must have a say in the outcome. Thus, carefully designed participation is a way to achieve socially robust results. However, fake participation is more likely to lead to protest.

7.1.2. Misconception Two: Everybody Can Participate Equally When working in a transdisciplinary context for the first time, the first impulse of many researchers is to claim that they somehow want to involve “the general public” or “citizens”. If they do not properly analyze their potential stakeholders, they risk ignoring their respective resources, needs and interests, such as schedules, competing actors or power relations. One of the founding principles of participatory research is that “it should level the power relations between researchers and the community in the research itself: in who sets the research agenda, who drives the research process and governs it and who interprets information” [48]. In order to reflect on these power relations, it is not only necessary to analyze the potential stakeholders and to speak and listen to them, but also to reflect on possible biases in the research team itself and in project government (access to knowledge and project insides, e.g., confidentiality agreements).

7.1.3. Misconception Three: Including Stakeholders Means that Research is Participatory As Arnstein [49] states, “there is a critical difference between going through the empty ritual of participation and having the real power needed to affect the outcome of the process.“ In her “ladder of participation“, she differentiates three degrees and eight rungs of citizen participation (Figure 12). Only one degree truly fulfills the criteria of citizen power and the chance to influence the outcome. For researchers, this means that they have to be aware that simply including stakeholders does not mean that their research is transdisciplinary and/or participatory. Moreover, whether potential stakeholders are being included in the decision process, and which level of participation makes sense in which phase of the research process (which, for instance, depends on resources, see misconception two) depends on who designs the participation. In addition, it is also crucial to define the level of participation to properly manage the expectations of the stakeholders. Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 of 25

7.1. Misconceptions and Pitfalls

7.1.1. Misconception One: Participation Creates Acceptance In many cases, participation seems to be considered as a means to create acceptance of techno- social innovations [47]. Additionally, in many cases, “participation” does not involve any more than informing the public, ergo communication (see misconception three). Trust is fundamental for creating acceptance, and, to gain trust, stakeholders must feel taken seriously, which means that they must have a say in the outcome. Thus, carefully designed participation is a way to achieve socially robust results. However, fake participation is more likely to lead to protest.

7.1.2. Misconception Two: Everybody Can Participate Equally When working in a transdisciplinary context for the first time, the first impulse of many researchers is to claim that they somehow want to involve “the general public” or “citizens”. If they do not properly analyze their potential stakeholders, they risk ignoring their respective resources, needs and interests, such as schedules, competing actors or power relations. One of the founding principles of participatory research is that “it should level the power relations between researchers and the community in the research itself: in who sets the research agenda, who drives the research process and governs it and who interprets information” [48]. In order to reflect on these power relations, it is not only necessary to analyze the potential stakeholders and to speak and listen to them, but also to reflect on possible biases in the research team itself and in project government (access to knowledge and project insides, e.g., confidentiality agreements).

7.1.3. Misconception Three: Including Stakeholders Means that Research is Participatory As Arnstein [49] states, “there is a critical difference between going through the empty ritual of participation and having the real power needed to affect the outcome of the process.“ In her “ladder of participation“, she differentiates three degrees and eight rungs of citizen participation (Figure 12). Only one degree truly fulfills the criteria of citizen power and the chance to influence the outcome. For researchers, this means that they have to be aware that simply including stakeholders does not mean that their research is transdisciplinary and/or participatory. Moreover, whether potential stakeholders are being included in the decision process, and which level of participation makes sense in which phase of the research process (which, for instance, depends on resources, see misconception Sustainabilitytwo) depends2020, on12, 360who designs the participation. In addition, it is also crucial to define the level19 of 24of participation to properly manage the expectations of the stakeholders.

8 Citizen Control Degrees of 7 Delegated Power Citizen Power

6 Partnership

5 Placation Degrees of 4 Consultation Toke nism

3 Informing

2 Therapy Nonpa rtic ipa tion 1 Manipulation

FigureFigure 12.12. Ladder of participation,participation, ownown graphicgraphic basedbased onon ArnsteinArnstein [[49].49].

7.1.4. Misconception Four: Conventional Research with Some Elements Added As became clear in the previous sections, transdisciplinary research needs to be designed and governed from the beginning with certain attitudes, values, and principles. A project is not transdisciplinary when it is planned in the conventional way and then complemented with some participatory elements. Transdisciplinary research needs expertise in co-creation, process design, facilitation, and participation methods. Therefore, a transdisciplinary team needs to add transdisciplinary experts to the team, who can play the role of “transdisciplinary watchdogs”. This setting requires the researchers to consider themselves as learning actors. In our experience, it can be helpful to make these possible misconceptions explicit in the mid-kick-oﬀ phase of a research process. This way, there is a chance for researchers to develop a routine of reﬂecting their ideas in the research process.

7.2. Outcomes and Learnings of the Stakeholder Dialoge in the Model Region of Augsburg For the stakeholder dialogue in September 2018, ﬁve subgroups were arranged in advance by the organizers. These ﬁve groups could pick their own focus for the facilitated afternoon co-creation session. The two leading questions for picking a focus were:

1. What are the greatest challenges in your ﬁeld of work concerning the energy-ﬂexible factory? 2. What are the blind spots of the presentations you have heard here so far?

The foci of the ﬁve subgroups turned out to be the regulation and adaptation of the energy market and the possible contribution of their region as a real laboratory. Each subgroup drafted a hypothesis, making up ﬁve hypotheses in total:

If regulation is simplified, industrial companies offer flexibility to stabilize the power system on a • large scale; The market must follow physics; • If there is enough freedom and if the objective is regularly assessed, then the energy-flexible • factory can be implemented; If a regulatory framework is created in Augsburg without disincentives, it can be transferred to • other regions; Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 20 of 24

The removal of obstacles is necessary to implement the concept of the energy-ﬂexible factory • sustainably and successfully; In order to advance implementation, disincentives should be diminished, and positive incentives • should be created.

Analyzing the output of the one-day stakeholder dialogue and the prior continuous dialogue-process in the spheres, we have concluded the following: stakeholders are committed to implementing energy flexibility in their region. They urged that policy frameworks need to be changed in order to give industry appropriate incentives and opportunities for greater energy flexibility. The identification with the model region Augsburg appeared high, so this can be spoken of as an active acceptance. In the next section, the transferability of the Augsburg results will be further investigated by referring to regional clusters in Germany.

8. Transferability The knowledge gained in the model region Augsburg should also be applied in other areas. Therefore, the question arises as to what extent the results can be transferred to other regions. The current and future need for flexibility in the energy system can be determined by the characteristics of electricity consumption and generation. On the generation side, volatile generation is of particular interest in the need for flexibility. However, wind power plants have a fundamentally different generation profile to photovoltaic plants. The nomenclature of territorial units for statistics (Nomenclature des Unités territoriales statistiques (NUTS)) is a geographical system, according to which the territory of the European Union is divided into hierarchical levels. Germany’s NUTS-3 regions are generally districts known as Kreise or as kreisfreie Städte. Therefore, in the first step, all German NUTS-3 regions are classified according to their area-specific generation from photovoltaics and wind power. On the electric consumption side, the most relevant factor for transferability is the industrial load in the region. Therefore, the area-specific electricity consumption of industry, and other electricity consumption from services and private households, are distinguished. The data for this were taken from the regional model FREM [22]. The extent to which the 401 NUTS-3 regions in Germany can be aggregated and made comparable with other regions was tested in [50] using six methods. The method and results of the most appropriate method are presented below. All 401 NUTS-3 regions in Germany are subjected to the following cluster and aggregation procedure. First, the 26 independent cities bordering only one district are assigned to this district. In the next step, these initial regions are classified in 16 clusters, which result from the two characteristics, high or low, of the four descriptive parameters for production and consumption. Neighbouring districts or regions are then aggregated, if the characterizing parameters from photovoltaic, wind, industrial and residual electricity (private housholds and services) demands of the resulting region result in a classification into a cluster of the larger district or region. The order of aggregation of the considered pairs of districts or regions is determined by the similarity between the four parameters. The area of the regions is limited to the area of five average districts (4443 km2). The resulting regions are assigned to the 16 cluster. Certain clusters, such as an industry-dominated region with very low generation from wind and photovoltaic, are very poorly represented. In contrast, regions dominated by wind on the generation side, and with hardly any demand for electricity, occur in almost all regions of north-eastern Germany and in several regions in central Germany. The cluster with high photovoltaic production and high power consumption is also very common. The model region Augsburg, is also part of this cluster. From this, it can be deduced that the methods and results developed in the research project for the model region Augsburg can also be applied to many other regions in Germany. If industrial electricity consumption is taken as a key criterion, the results can be transferred to around 28% of the regions in Germany. However, it should be noted that the specific grid situation is not taken into account in the Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 21 of 24 methods presented. Many of the flexibility market approaches are grid-driven and integrating this aspect into the future methodology of aggregation and clustering is recommended.

9. Conclusions and Outlook

9.1. Conclusions Economic solutions and incentives for the integration of volatile renewable electricity generation are key to ensuring socially supported energy transition. By adapting their electricity demand to a volatile power generation, so-called energy-flexible factories may support the system balance and counteract local network bottlenecks. For this purpose, this paper describes the potential, obstacles, effects, and opportunities of the energy-flexible factory as part of the model region Augsburg, a research and demonstration area of a federal research project. Representative industrial flexibility measures were analyzed by a simulation-based optimization in supply scenarios with the advanced expansion of fluctuating renewable electricity generation. Furthermore, the environmental impact of the implementation of these measures was identified in a life-cycle assessment. Additionally, to follow a holistic approach, a network of actors from science, industry, associations, and civil society organizations was established and actively collaborated in a transdisciplinary work process. By means of simulation-based optimization it could be shown that energy-flexible factories have a positive influence on the energy balance on the scale of medium-sized power plants. Internal environmental additional expenses of the companies to implement the measures were classified as mitigated by the increased share of renewable energy in the generation mix. The flexibility measures examined, and the associated consumption of renewable energy, could be assessed as advantageous from an ecological perspective. However, the implementation of industrial energy flexibility requires appropriate economic incentives on both national and regional levels [51]. The involvement of stakeholders has demonstrated that the question of compensation models and a suitable regulatory framework must be clarified in order to create acceptance and active participation. In the upcoming practical test runs, communication between the network operator and the energy-flexible factories will be implemented first. In the second step, the benefit of local flexibility is evaluated.

9.2. Outlook The following aspects were identified for the further development of the energy-flexible factory as well as its integration into the supply system and social structures: A decisive factor for the success of the prototype operation is the establishment of suitable and • trustworthy interfaces between companies, grid operators, and aggregators. Therefore, reliable communication structures must be developed. These include organizational responsibilities, appropriate information and communication technology solutions, respectively. For this purpose, possible communication processes will be developed and tested; A company’s sometimes very heterogeneous manufacturing execution and enterprise • resource-planning system needs to be connected to suitable platforms that offer companies planning security in the flexibilization of production processes and enable a connection to centralized and decentralized markets; Different uses of industrial energy flexibility need to be considered and provided with appropriate • market mechanisms that exhibit financial incentives for the industrial sector. Therefore, regulations of existing markets are considered, and innovative concepts for regional markets are developed further; It is crucial to discuss how energy-flexible factories interact with other energy conversion • technologies. This includes, for example, the use of battery storage and sector coupling. For this, the transdisciplinary dialogue will be expanded. Stakeholders are also involved in enhancing portability and extending the scope to smaller companies and other regions; Sustainability 2020, 12, 360 22 of 24

Further stakeholder participation needs to be designed carefully and at an early stage, ideally • involving the stakeholders themselves. Finally, it will be important for the model region Augsburg, to comprehensively integrate the concept of the energy-ﬂexible factory into the progress of energy transition. To achieve this, visions and models need to be developed that interlock regional activities with nationwide, European, and global processes and measures.

Author Contributions: S.R. and P.S. significantly conceptualized the structure of the paper and were responsible for the project’s administration. S.H. and P.S. contributed to the draft preparation, especially Section5, as well as the review and editing. S.R. and J.K. contributed the investigations on flexibility measures and the simulation studies in Section4, as well as the review and editing. D.P. contributed the ecological studies to Section4. S.v.R. and B.K. contributed the regional supply scenarios to Section4. S.O., K.E., and D.P. contributed to the transdisciplinary method in Section2, to the co-creative discourse in Section3 and to Section7. S.v.R. and B.K. contributed especially to Sections6 and8. All mentioned authors wrote large parts of the manuscript and were largely responsible for creating the figures. G.R. supervised the work of S.R. and J.K. H.U.B. supervised the work of P.S. and S.H. All authors and supervisors provided critical feedback and helped shape the research, analysis, and manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: This research was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) Grant No. 03SFK3G1. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Kopernikus-project “SynErgie” by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the project supervision by the project management organization Projektträger Jülich. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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