CHINA, the US and the “New Great Game”

Marius Grinius Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs institute BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front):

• The “New Great Game” is being played by an ascendant China with global ambitions and a United States in apparent retreat.

• China is assisted by junior partner Russia.

• It is in China’s and Russia’s mutual interest to keep the US geopolitically off- balance. The Chinese Dream: a Resurgent China

• Xi Jinping’s goals:

- To achieve a moderately prosperous society by 2021, centenary of the Communist Party of China. - To build China into a modern socialist country by 2049, centenary of the People’s Republic of China. - On track. China:

• World’s second largest economy • Annual GDP growth rate since 1978: ~10% • Belt Road Initiative (BRI) • Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) • Modernization of People’s Liberation Army: - restructured, hi-tech, joint operations - Blue Water navy, up-gunned Air Force - upgraded nuclear forces - greater military capacity in outer space and cyberspace An Assertive China: • South China Sea (Nine Dash Line claim) • East China Sea (Japan) • Taiwan/Formosa Strait • Ongoing border dispute with India • First overseas naval port in Djibouti • Joint Naval exercises with Russia: – Pacific/Mediterranean/Black Sea/Baltic Sea • PLA participation in “Vostok 2018” with Russia and Mongolia North Korea:

An important and dangerous sideshow in the “New Great Game”

Post Six Party Talks (2003 – 2009): “Strategic Patience” “Fire and Fury” “Trump Kim” 2018

• North Korea: – Have gone from Kim Jong-un’s New Year speech to participation in the Winter Olympics

• Frenzy of Summits: – Panmunjom Declaration (April 2018) – Joint Statement – Trump/Kim (June 2018) – Pyongyang Declaration (September 2018) - Agreement on Implementation in Military Domain

• What next? CURRENT SITUATION: AN IMPASSE?

• United States: – CVID mantra: complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (definitions???) – UN/US sanctions remain in place – possible move to CVID Lite? • North Korea: – promises of “denuclearization” – “action-for-action” – security assurances, ie regime survival – lift sanctions CURRENT SITUATION: AN IMPASSE?

• South Korea: – visions of co-prosperity and peaceful coexistence – is there any other choice? • China/Russia: – sweet spot of interested on-lookers supporting North Korea The Players, The Visions

• Kim Jong-un: regime survival • Moon Jae-in, man in a hurry: – gamble that co-prosperity will lead to peaceful coexistence • Xi Jinping: “Chinese Dream” on track • Vladimir Putin: Russian dream of past glories • Donald Trump: ??? QUESTIONS (LONG TERM)

• North Korean human rights record: sidelined • End-of-war declaration? • Peace treaty and its implications? • Future of UN Command? • US defence commitments in Asia? – Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines, Australia

• North/South Unification – last divided legacy of the Cold War