Begun Is Half Done Prospects for US-North Korea Nuclear Diplomacy

Begun is Half Done Prospects for US-North Korea Nuclear Diplomacy February 2019 By Catherine Killough Catherine Killough is the Roger L. Hale Fellow at the Ploughshares Fund, where she focuses on North Korea’s nuclear and missile development. She is involved in efforts to promote diplomatic solutions to the US-North Korea nuclear crisis, and to encourage greater engagement between the two countries. Prior to joining Ploughshares Fund, Catherine interned at the State Department Office of Korean Affairs and the National Committee on North Korea. She has a Master’s degree in Asian Studies from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, where she specialized in the politics and security of Korea. Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to Philip Yun for sharing his sharp insights and personal experiences on North Korea with me. I especially thank Tom Collina for his encouragement and guidance throughout the writing of this report. I am also grateful for Joe Cirincione’s tireless mentorship, and for the opportunity to learn from my smart colleagues John Carl Baker, Michelle Dover, Mary Kaszynski, Meghan McCall, and Geoff Wilson. Special thanks to Zack Brown for providing graphics and excellent feedback in the review of the final draft. Finally, I would like to thank Roger L. Hale, who made this report and fellowship at the Ploughshares Fund possible. Ploughshares Fund Study Report No. 4 ©Ploughshares Fund, February 2019 Begun is Half Done Prospects for US-North Korea Nuclear Diplomacy February 2019 By Catherine Killough Executive Summary The United States may be within reach of an agreement A critical review of the US-North Korea negotiation record that could meaningfully advance the denuclearization calls into question the conventional narrative that diplomacy of North Korea and build lasting peace on the Korean has been a categorical failure, that North Korea has always Peninsula. South Korean President Moon Jae-in first laid the cheated, and that denuclearization is unachievable. Every groundwork for dialogue in 2017. To their credit, President US president since Bill Clinton has attempted to reverse Donald Trump and Chairman Kim Jong Un then initiated an North Korea’s nuclear course, and, at times, these efforts unprecedented, leader-driven diplomatic process to supplant have succeeded in slowing the program. Policymaking going the nuclear brinkmanship that has bedeviled US-North Korea forward can and should be guided by this history of partial relations. However, the opportunity may be fleeting. success and missed opportunities. At this critical juncture, the same challenges that have The lessons of four missed opportunities undermined past negotiations threaten the diplomatic – in both Republican and Democratic opportunity at hand. Washington demands that North Korea administrations – underpin this analysis: take immediate and unilateral action to denuclearize, while 1. The Bill Clinton administration negotiated the Agreed Pyongyang insists that the United States frontload political Framework (1994-2003), the first US-North Korea and security guarantees. The historical and political lessons nuclear deal and earliest attempt at dissuading North of past US-North Korea negotiations could help the Trump Korea from going down the nuclear path. It froze North administration break such an impasse. Korea’s plutonium production for nearly a decade, and set a precedent for fundamentally improving relations First, the Trump administration must overcome decades between enemy states. But instead of supporting of mistrust if it seeks to compel North Korea to change its the agreement, a newly Republican-controlled security calculus and abandon nuclear weapons. The US- Congress hamstrung the implementation process, North Korea relationship continues to exist on the basis of and the incoming George W. Bush administration enduring hostilities forged in the 1950-1953 Korean War. US used intelligence reports about a suspected uranium efforts to restrict North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons – enrichment program to scrap the deal. Soon after, beginning only in the 1990s – have not sufficiently addressed Pyongyang announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear this larger unresolved conflict. Nonproliferation Treaty and reactivated its plutonium program. North Korea now has an estimated Second, the administration will need to build political space 20-40 kilograms, or 4-8 bombs worth, of plutonium. at home to ensure diplomacy can succeed. Partisanship and intraparty infighting have created obstacles to effectively 2. As a follow on to the Agreed Framework, the Clinton deal with North Korea, while leadership changeovers – in administration established an external policy review, both Washington and Pyongyang – have resulted in short- known as the “Perry Process,” which launched sighted decisions to abandon promising agreements. In negotiations toward a separate North Korea missile the near term, the Trump administration should encourage agreement. This was the first and last major opportunity Congress to support corresponding measures, such to prevent North Korea from developing and proliferating as limited sanctions relief, that could advance nuclear missile technologies. The Clinton administration was talks. The durability of future agreements will depend close to concluding a deal in 2000, but the incoming on mechanisms that foster Congressional buy-in and Bush administration decided to cancel talks, with no responsible oversight. alternative plan to constrain North Korea’s missile activities. North Korea has since developed and tested intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States. 2 3. The Bush administration, convinced of the need to re- Reshaping North Korea policy requires an honest reckoning enter negotiations as North Korea’s plutonium stockpile of the successes and shortcomings of these diplomatic grew, joined the Chinese-led Six Party Talks in 2003. precedents. In each case, North Korea demonstrated a Two years and several rounds of negotiations later, willingness to deal on terms that would have slowed, limited, North Korea pledged to abandon its nuclear programs and even reversed its nuclear development. North Korea in exchange for an action-for-action plan that would has also demonstrated a talent for hedging against the address its desires for regime security and energy United States, as evidenced by its development of a uranium assistance, consistent with the Agreed Framework. But enrichment program. Whether North Korea intended to the US Treasury Department – uncoordinated with the cheat, or to create more leverage over the United States negotiators – abruptly imposed sanctions that derailed in moments of diplomatic uncertainty, are questions worth another opportunity for a diplomatic breakthrough. North investigating. But it is evident that the United States moved Korea went on to break its self-imposed missile test too slowly, and withdrew too quickly, when disputes arose. moratorium and detonated its first nuclear device in 2006. The Trump administration must now draw on these lessons 4. The last opportunity to engage North Korea emerged to ensure that it does not lose yet another opportunity to under the Obama administration with the Leap Day curb the North Korean nuclear program. Going forward, US Deal (2011-2012). In exchange for food aid, North Korea policymakers should adopt a comprehensive North Korea pledged to halt nuclear and missile testing at a time strategy that encompasses 1) a step-by-step approach to when it was making significant gains toward a credible advance simultaneous progress on a peace regime and nuclear deterrent. But the deal closed almost as soon as denuclearization, and 2) a roadmap to secure interim actions it opened. North Korea, which had undergone a major that would reduce the risk of conflict, including measures to leadership transition from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un, slow down North Korea’s nuclear weapons development. announced plans to commemorate the new leader with a satellite launch. The Obama administration then decided The United States stands to gain more when it engages to discard the deal rather than renegotiate it to address North Korea. Periods of isolation have exacerbated the risks of dual-use missile technologies. In the years North Korea’s siege mentality and accelerated its pursuit since, North Korea conducted four nuclear tests and of a nuclear deterrent. Absent dialogue, fundamental over eighty-five missile tests. misunderstandings between Washington and Pyongyang widen, raising the likelihood for miscalculation. The potential consequences of a provocation that could escalate into nuclear conflict are too disastrous to risk. Policymakers across the political spectrum have squandered strategic opportunities to deal with North Korea well before it acquired the nuclear capabilities that challenge the Trump administration today. We must learn from these experiences to ensure we do not make the same mistakes again. 3 Foreword When Catherine first told me she wanted to write about For the past 25 years, policy experts and academics have the missed opportunities in US-North Korea diplomacy, argued about North Korea’s intentions. The reality is that no I encouraged her to see it through. The timing couldn’t one really knows. The good news is that we have, for the be better or the need greater. first time in almost twenty years, the chance to talk directly to North Korea’s supreme leader and find out. If we guard For too long,

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