SWP Research Paper Hanns Günther Hilpert and Oliver Meier (Eds.) Facets of the North Korea Conflict Actors, Problems and Europe’s Interests Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP Research Paper 12 December 2018 Abstract Even after the summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Head of State Kim Jong Un in Singapore on 12 June 2018, the crisis surrounding North Korea’s nuclear programme and weapons of mass destruction programme remains one of the most dangerous and complex in the world. The conflict is centred on the unresolved tense relationship between North Korea and the USA, and in particular the issue of nuclear weapons possession. Grouped around this are other conflicts characterised by clashes of interests between China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the USA. In addition, within these conflicts, security policy, human rights policy and economic policy have great impact on each other. For Germany and Europe, finding a peaceful solution to the conflict – or at least preventing military escalation – is key. Europe can and should work to ensure that North Korea is treated as a challenge to global gov- ernance. Addressing the set of problems subsumed under the term “North Korea conflict” in such a way as to avoid war, consolidate global order structures, and improve the situation of the people in North Korea requires staying power and can only lead to success one step at a time. SWP Research Paper Hanns Günther Hilpert and Oliver Meier (Eds.) Facets of the North Korea Conflict Actors, Problems and Europe’s Interests Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs SWP Research Paper 12 December 2018 All rights reserved. © Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, 2018 SWP Research Papers are peer reviewed by senior researchers and the execu- tive board of the Institute. They are also subject to fact- checking and copy-editing. For further information on our quality control pro- cedures, please visit the SWP website: https:// www.swp-berlin.org/en/ about-swp/quality- management-for-swp- publications/. SWP Research Papers reflect the views of the author(s). SWP Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4 10719 Berlin Germany Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-200 www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] ISSN 1863-1053 Translation by Tom Genrich (Revised an updated English version of SWP-Studie 18/2018) Table of Contents 5 Issues and Recommendations 40 Non-Proliferation: Containing a Rule Breaker 7 Interests, Interdependencies and a Gordian Knot Oliver Meier Hanns Günther Hilpert und Oliver Meier 46 Human Rights Policy: 11 North Korea: Between Autonomy-Seeking No Trade-Off Necessary and the Pursuit of Influence Hanns Günther Hilpert and Frédéric Krumbein Eric J. Ballbach 51 Diplomacy: 17 South Korea: Going Round and Round in Circles? Caught in the Middle or Mediating from the Middle? Volker Stanzel Hanns Günther Hilpert and Elisabeth Suh 57 Sanctions: 22 USA: Their Development, Significance and Results Between the Extremes Hanns W. Maull Marco Overhaus 62 Military Options: 27 China: (Too) Much Risk for (Too) Little Promise Between Key Role and Marginalisation Michael Paul Anny Boc and Gudrun Wacker 68 Cyberspace: 31 Russia: Asymmetric Warfare and Cyber-Heists A Possible Mediator? Matthias Schulze Margarete Klein 73 Disentangling rather than Cutting the Gordian Knot: 36 Japan: The North Korea Conflict and the Role of Europe On the Sidelines Hanns Günther Hilpert and Oliver Meier Hanns Günther Hilpert and Elli Pohlkamp 84 Appendix 84 Abbreviations 85 The Authors List of Maps and Charts 4 Map 1 North and South Korea in the regional environment 10 Chart 1 The development of the conflict over North Korea’s nuclear programme 43 Chart 2 North Korean nuclear tests, October 2006 to September 2017 65 Chart 3 North Korea’s ballistic missiles 76 Chart 4 North Korean missile tests 1984–2017 Online dossier to the Research Paper http://bit.ly/SWP18DNK_Introduction Map 1 North and South Korea in the regional environment Issues and Recommendations Facets of the North Korea Conflict: Actors, Problems and Europe’s Interests The conflict over North Korea’s nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction programmes remains one of the most dangerous and complex crises in the world, even after the summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Head of State Kim Jong Un in Singapore on 12 June 2018. The risk of military escalation is enormous. Given the involvement of four nuclear weapon possessors, the use of nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. But the conflict remains explosive even below the threshold of open violence. North Korea has openly and directly challenged the international community by ignoring UN Security Council decisions and other global norms and rules. The proliferation of weapons and weapons technology threatens to fuel instabilities in other parts of the world. The credibility of the nuclear non- proliferation regime is in question. Asymmetric strat- egies, such as North Korean cyber attacks and cyber raids, pose new challenges for the international com- munity. The Trump administration is striving for a sustain- able conflict resolution based on an agreement at the highest political level between Pyongyang and Washington. Such a dialogue is an important, but not sufficient prerequisite for a sustainable solution. The North Korea conflict is the focal point of a mix of various, confounding problem constellations. To un- ravel them will require a step-by-step approach that takes into account the diverging interests of the actors involved and their historical sensitivities. The conflict focuses on the unresolved question of the relationship between North Korea and the USA, and is centred on the issue of nuclear weapons pos- session. Pyongyang sees its nuclear deterrent against the United States as a guarantee of its security. Washington, on the other hand, is not prepared to accept mutual vulnerability and has threatened mili- tary escalation. However, further conflicts are grouped around this antagonism, which are characterised by clashes of interests between China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the USA. Neighbouring states are following the conflict between Pyongyang and Washington with concern, not only because of the SWP Berlin Facets of the North Korea Conflict December 2018 5 Issues and Recommendations immediate effects of any war, but also with regard ment, and provide positive incentives through politi- to their own foreign and security policy interests. cal, economic and humanitarian offers. It should China’s great power ambitions are challenged by a warn the USA against military responses and urge nuclearised North Korea and would suffer a setback China to implement the sanctions adopted by the through a military escalation that ended in reunifica- UN Security Council. tion under South Korean-American auspices. South Europe can use its economic and political influ- Korea, which is particularly exposed and seeks recon- ence to urge third countries to strictly implement ciliation and détente with the North, has been trying the sanctions regime. Europe can and should work to promote dialogue between the USA and North to ensure that North Korea is treated as a challenge Korea without damaging its relations with other par- to the global order. Partial and interim solutions with ties. While Russia has a direct presence in East Asia, Pyongyang may be necessary to defuse the conflict. it views its policy on the North Korea conflict more as However, such solutions must not violate the norms a variable that is dependent on its relations with the and rules agreed in multilateral regimes. A de facto USA. Moscow would probably only aspire to a mediat- recognition of North Korea’s nuclear weapons pos- ing role under certain circumstances. session, for instance, may be a prerequisite for agree- North Korea’s totalitarian rule, its catastrophic ing on a disarmament process. A formal upgrading human rights situation and its opacity are further ob- of North Korea to a nuclear weapons state would, stacles to integrating the country into international however, permanently affect the non-proliferation contexts in a way that promotes peace. regime. In human rights policy, Europe also needs to Historical legacies also make conflict resolution maintain visible and lasting pressure on North Korea, more difficult. Tainted by colonial times, the Korean while at the same time keeping the issue strictly War and the Cold War continue to influence percep- separate from security policy. tions today and restrict important actors’ room for There is a great deal to suggest that addressing the manoeuvre. For example, Japan’s historically charged set of the problems subsumed under the term “North role in Korea, the unresolved question of Japanese Korea conflict” in a way that avoids war, consolidates citizens abducted by North Korea, and its dependence global governance structures and improves the situa- on the United States for security policy all put Tokyo tion of the people in North Korea, requires staying in a precarious position. power and will only lead to success one step at a time. In addition, there are numerous interferences The political dialogue with North Korea that was between the various conflicts. Such interactions, for launched by the Trump administration in Singapore instance between security, human rights and economic can promote such a process. It is unlikely to be policies, may be deliberate (e.g. when an easing of enough. sanctions is offered as an incentive for disarmament efforts) or unintended (e.g. when security guarantees vis-à-vis North Korea weaken US alliances with allies). For Germany and Europe, finding a peaceful solu- tion to the conflict – or at least avoiding military escalation – is key. The consequences of a war in Korea would be felt in Europe.