ZEIT Foundation Ebelin and Gerd Bucerius, Hamburg, Germany Heinz Nixdorf Foundation, Essen/Paderborn, Germany THE BUCERIUS SUMMER SCHOOL ON GLOBAL GOVERNANCE 2010 Conference Report Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Democracy, Development, and Security 15 – 28 August 2010 Compiled and edited by Dr Cornelius Adebahr, Political Consultant, Berlin Contents 1 Executive Summary 3 2 Session reports 5 2.1 Global Governance: Re-Inventing International Institutions 5 2.2 Democracy is politics in its best constitution 6 2.3 Asia’s Rise – The West’s Decline? 8 2.4 East is East, and West is West: Where does Japan belong? Japan‘s role in the multipolar world order 9 2.5 India’s Demographic, Environmental and Social Challenges 10 2.6 China’s Demographic, Environmental and Social Challenges 12 2.7 Asia’s Stress Lines and Fault Lines: From Kabul to Korea 13 2.8 The Middle East: Cockpits of Conflict 15 2.9 Prospects of Peace, Security and Nuclear Non- Proliferation 16 2.10 Improving Arab-Israeli Relations: Toward Peace and Security 17 2.11 The conflict over Iran’s nuclear programme 18 2.12 Democratization in the Middle East? 20 2.13 Afghanistan and Pakistan: Prospects for Security and Stability 21 2.14 The Vision of a Nuclear-Free World 23 2.15 Europe in the post-Lisbon Muddle: How to regain political Momentum and Euro-Stability 25 2.16 Turkey: Looking East, looking West? 26 2.17 Germany’s European Politics after the Lisbon Treaty 28 2.18 Africa's Economic Outlook and its Impetus for Political and Social Change 30 2.19 How can Africa benefit from Foreign Aid 31 2.20 Assessing the Africa Strategies of Asian, European, (Latin) American, and Arab countries: The 2nd Scramble or New Opportunities for Africa? 33 2.21 Resources: Extractive industries and Good Governance in Africa 34 2.22 Democracy, Security and Privacy in the Digital Age 36 2.23 International Finance: Back to ‘Business as Usual’? 37 2.24 Green, Sustainable, Equitable: A Business Philosophy for the Future 39 2.25 The Failure of Copenhagen and the Politics of Climate Change 40 2.26 Islam and the West: Dialogue or Diatribe? 43 2.27 The Dragon, The Elephant and the Assorted Tigers: Asia’s International Relations 45 Bucerius Summer School 2010 – Report Page 2 of 46 1 Executive Summary The worst part of the crisis may be over. At least, this is what many people like to believe, given that the most recent economic data provide signs for optimism. Yet, even if the world economy is on the rise again (mostly thanks to strong demand in emerging countries), the broader prospects for democracy, development, and security are much less clear. This is where the discussions of the 2010 Bucerius Summer School took off, with 55 young leaders from 32 different countries taking a hard look at the current challenges of global governance. Governance at the global level is highly fragmented. There is no system of worldwide democracy , and the four basic principles of democracy at the national level – participation, representation, constitution and the public sphere – are nowhere within reach globally. Already the lack of an integrated international legal system hampers the further development of international law. One event that highlighted these imperfections was the failure of the climate negotiations in Copenhagen, where a lack of leadership, short-term orientation and domestic considerations were all in the way of coming to a globally binding framework. In addition, established democratic practices are challenged by new technologies. Does the internet in fact contribute to the democratisation of societies, and which threats for individual privacy arise from today’s technological world? Discussions also focused on the relationship between democracy and Islam in general, and between ‘Islam and the West’ more particular. Participants debated the likely characteristics of emerging Islamic democracies and the role of outside intervention in this process. At the same time, talking about Islam and the West to them also meant talking about the relationship of minorities and majorities in Western democratic societies, involving questions of identity, power and participation on both sides. One answer to these was the rule of the “three Ls”: Every citizen has to obey the law, speak the language and show loyalty with the host country. When it comes to development , the rise of Asia was at the centre of many debates. Shining growth figures were contrasted with the social realities of these highly dynamic countries, where a rapid pace of development has caused socio-economic disparities and thus new kinds of challenges. In China, problems range from environmental concerns to pressures from possible social unrests to the increasing income disparity. Whether the current system would be able to deliver the necessary changes and whether it still had enough time to do so, was a question left open in the end. India too has a number of internal problems to overcome. One important point made was that it – like all other emerging countries – will not be able to follow the path of industrial development made by the Western countries in the past, simply because the Earth’s resources are limited. This notwithstanding, old-new powerful countries like China and India are increasingly asked to take over responsibility at the global level, something that they have been fairly unwilling to do for fear of overburdening their internal growth. Internal growth is also an important issue for the European Union, which may have overcome its long institutional debates with the Lisbon Treaty but only just survived the recent Euro crisis. Whether it will be able to play a lead role on the global political scene will also depend on whether it can keep up with the more dynamic regions in Asia and South America. Turkey, in contrast, has grown in economic importance and Bucerius Summer School 2010 – Report Page 3 of 46 conducts an increasingly assertive and independent foreign policy, driven by the desire to have ‘zero problems’ with neighbouring countries. A number of recent developments, however, have raised the question of whether the country is in effect shifting ‘East’. The development story looks brighter again when looking at Africa, where economic achievements and the growth perspectives of an emergent African middle class have completely changed the picture. This includes looking at aid from a market perspective, including new approaches to development such as social business models. In what some see as a “second scramble for resources”, Africa’s dynamism has attracted new donors and investors, including from India and China as well as Brazil and South Africa. Participants found that while the scramble as such may be similar to previous ones, there is now also a scramble for influence in the continent. To ensure that transparency trickles down to better accountability and contributes to sustainable development, hybrid governance coalitions such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) bring together companies and governments in resource-dependent countries. At a different level, the viability of the western economic and financial model has been more and more criticised. Moreover, many commentators have highlighted the risk that the business community will go back to “business as usual” as the economy gradually recovers. To prevent this backlash, reforms to the predominant business model would need to incorporate the most pressing challenges the global community faces today. More precisely, international corporations have to ensure that their business model is compatible with an inclusive globalisation, takes into account energy, global warming and environmental aspects, addresses the increasing gap between the poorest and the richest, and finally fits into a multipolar world. When it comes to security , one focus was on Asia’s faultlines from Kabul to Korea. Participants discussed possible ways to accommodate diversity in Asia (e.g. distinct growth models, cultures, perceptions of statehood) and mutual understanding and interaction with the West. Referring specifically to the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan, they agreed that there would be a long-term need for an international presence within Afghanistan to ensure stability within the region, including most of all neighbouring Pakistan. The Middle East conflict was another point of discussion, where participants identified several key dynamics that impact on the balance of power within the region, including economic drivers, demographic changes, availability and access to natural resources, and distribution of political power at the national level. Participants discussed in particular the evolving role of Turkey (a potential „bridging power“ for the region) and Iran. Beyond Iran’s role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the country’s nuclear programme was an issue. Participants identified the West’s recognition of Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy as one essential element of a potential solution to this dispute. This point led to further discussions of the future balance of power in the region as well as the prospects of approaching a broader framework of a Middle Eastern zone free of weapon of mass destruction. Going even one step further, the question of ‘global zero’ was raised. With a two-pronged approach, combining a system of safeguards against the spread of nuclear-weapon technology and material with a total dismantling of currently existing stocks of nuclear warheads, this might – just – be achievable, some felt. It certainly means that there is enough on the plate for a new generation to build a functioning system of global governance. Bucerius Summer School 2010 – Report Page 4 of 46 2 Session reports 2.1 Global Governance: Re-Inventing International Institutions Speaker: John G. Ruggie , UN Special Representative for Business and Human Rights, New York Rapporteur: Oliver C. Delfin , The Philippines Session 1: Monday, August 16 The system of global governance is fairly advanced, but at the same time dangerously fragmented.