An Overview of the Global Barometer Survey

Marta Lagos Corporación Latinobarómetro

GLOBAL BAROMETER

Presented at East Asia Barometer Conference

From the Views of the Global Barometer Surveys Taipei 8-9, December 2003

Marta Lagos

1 GLOBAL BAROMETER GLOBAL PUBLIC OPINION IN 63 COUNTRIES www.globalbarometer.org

Afrobarometer 15 countries 1999 Asian Barometer 16 countries 2001 Latinobarómetro 17 countries 1995 New Europe Barometer 16 countries 1992

PUBLIC OPINION ON NATIONS, STATES, DEMOCRACY, THE ECONOMY, PUBLIC POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, MEDIA AND SOCIETIES.

2 GLOBAL BAROMETER SURVEYS

0. Definition: Global Barometer Surveys is a network of BAROMETERS founded with goal of coordinating and having a single common output.

1. Membership: Global BAROMETER is founded by four BAROMETERS in four regions of the world: Africa, Asia, Latin America and New Europe. The Founders are:

• Yun-Han Chu • Richard Rose • Michael Bratton • Robert Mattes • Marta Lagos

2. The Executive Board: One representative per Barometer coordinated by a chairman.

3. Three areas of development: / Committees

• Data Collection and Archiving: • Standard methodology • Funding

4. International Advisory Board: Leading Academics / Pollsters / Survey Researchers.

3 AFRO BAROMETER IDASA CDD-Ghana MSU The Institute for Democracy The Ghana Centre for D Michigan State University in South Afrrica Democratic Development Michael Bratton Robert Mattes Gyimah-Boadi [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] WAVE 1: 12 countries. July 1999-September 2001 Botswana Nov./Dec. 1999 Nigeria Jan./Feb. 2000 Ghana July 1999 South Africa July/August 2000 Lesotho April/June 2000 Tanzania Mar./Sep. 2001 Mali January 2001 Uganda June/July 2000 Malawi Nov./Dec. 1999 Zambia Oct./Nov. 1999 Namibia Sep./Oct. 1999 Zimbabwe Sep./Oct. 1999

WAVE 2: 15 countries June 2002-September 2003 1. Cape Verde June 2002 8.- Malawi October 2002 2. Mozambique July 2002 9.- Lesotho November 2002 3. Uganda August 2002 10.-Tanzania June 2003 4. South Africa September 2002 11.-Botswana July 2003 5. Ghana September 2002 12.-Zambia July 2003 6. Mali November 2002 13.-Namibia August 2003 7. Senegal December 2002 14.-Kenya August 2003 8. Nigeria September 2003

• SAMPLE: Random adults over 18 years of age, multistage area cluster sample. Equal proportions of men and women. • SAMPLE SIZE: 1200 per country, except 2400 in Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Uganda. • SAMPLE ERROR: 2.5 • LANGUAGES: From 2 in Cape Verde and Tanzania to 7 in Nigeria and 9 in Uganda. • REPRESENTATION: Between 85% to 100% based on the number of languages covered • APPLICATION MODE: Trained interviewers conduct the interviews orally in a face-to-face setting in the language of the respondent's choice. 4 ASIA BAROMETER

East Asia Barometer Project Office South Asia Barometer Department of Political Science Center for the Study of Developing Societies National Taiwan University New Delhi – India Prof. Yun-han Chu - Prof. Fu HU Prof Yogendra Yadav [email protected] - [email protected] [email protected] www.eastasiabarometer.org

WAVE 2: 11 Countries East Asia - 5 Countries South Asia = Total 16 countries 2004 - 2005

1. Taiwan 2004 9. Hong Kong 2004 2. Thailand 2004 10. South Korea 2004 3. Mainland China 2004 11. Philippines 2005 4. Mongolia 2005 12. Japan 2005 5. Indonesia 2005 13. Vietnam 2005 6. Cambodia 2005 14. Bangladesh2004 7. Pakistan 2004 15. India 2004 8. Nepal 2004 16. Sri Lanka 2004

• SAMPLE: Adult population, probability sample proportional to population size. • SAMPLE SIZE: 1,200~1,500, with 3,000 in China, and 800 in Hong Kong. • SAMPLE ERROR: 2.5% or less • LANGUAGES: Up to 7 languages • REPRESENTATION: More than 48% of the world population. • APPLICATION MODE: Face-to-face in language of respondent's choice.

5 LATINOBARÓMETRO Corporación Latinobarómetro Dario Urzúa 2080, Santiago Chile Marta Lagos [email protected] www.latinobarometro.org Wave 1 1995: Argentina Paraguay Brasil Perú Chile Uruguay México Venezuela Wave 2 since 1996: Argentina Ecuador Panamá Bolivia El Salvador Paraguay Brasil Guatemala Perú Colombia Honduras Uruguay Costa Rica México Venezuela Chile Nicaragua SAMPLE: Adults over 18 years of age, multistage random and quota sample SAMPLE SIZE: 1200 per country, except 600 in Asunción Paraguay, SAMPLE ERROR: 3 LANGUAGES: Mainly Spanish. Maya and local languages also used in minorities. REPRESENTATION: Between 85% to 100% APPLICATION MODE: Face-to-face 6 NEW EUROPE BAROMETER

Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, Professor Richard Rose, FBA. [email protected] www.cspp.strath.ac.uk. WAVES: since 1992 seven waves completed in 16 New Europe countries Central and Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS):

Belarus: 5 since 1992 Bulgaria: 7 since 1991 Croatia: 5 since 1992 Czech Republic: 7 since 1991 Estonia: 5 since 1993 Hungary: 7 since 1991 Lithuania: 5 since 1993 Slovakia: 7 since 1991 Ukraine: 5 since 1992 Poland: 7 since 1991 Latvia: 6 since 1993 Russia: 11 since 1992 Romania: 6 since 1992 Serbia & Montenegro: 3 since 1998 Slovenia: 6 since 1992 Moldova: 1 in 2000

• SAMPLE : Adults over 18 years of age, , multi-stage, random samples. • SAMPLE SIZE: 1000 except 2000 for Russia. • SAMPLE ERROR: 2,.5 % • LANGUAGES: Questionnaires in the state language with a major exception for the Baltic states, • where Russian as well as a Baltic language are applied. • REPRESENTATION: 100% • APPLICATION MODE: Face to face in the language of the respondent´s choice. 7 PROJECTS

1. IDEA FLAGSHIP REPORT: • The first flagship report will review the existing data to produce a chapter on selected data. The first report/chapter will be produced for 2005.

• Editor/ responsible of production: The chapter will be edited and coordinated by Richard Rose at Strathclyde University, Scotland.

• Analysis of the data: The flagship chapter is a good opportunity to look a the data for the first time with a intra-regional and interregional perspective.

2. UNDP PROJECT : Proposal to be submitted to UNDP Headquarters.

3. Project for Caribbean Barometer: 14 Countries

Antigua y Barbuda Grenada San Vicente & Grenadines Bahamas Guyana St Kitts & Nevis Barbados Haiti Suriname Belize Jamaica Trinidad & Tobago Dominica Santa Lucia 8 EUROBAROMETER – 24 COUNTRIES We can link with questions that have time series from the 70s onwards in the European member states and more recently with applicant / new member state countries. MEMBER STATES: 14 Countries Belgium Ireland Denmark Luxembourg Germany The Netherlands Greece Austria Spain Portugal Italy Finland France Sweden

NEW MEMBER STATES: 10 Countries Czech Republic Estonia Cyprus Latvia Lithuania Hungary Malta Poland

Slovenia 9 Slovakia GLOBAL BAROMETER SURVEYS VARIABLES IN ALL REGIONS

10 GLOBAL BAROMETER VARIABLES IN ALL REGIONS

I.- DEMOCRACY VI.- ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS • Meaning of Democracy • Current country economic evaluation • Satisfaction with democracy • Past country economic evaluation • Support to democracy • Future country economic evaluation • Current personal economic evaluation II.- INSTITUTIONS • Trust in institutions VII.- MEDIA EXPOSURE

III.- POLITICS VIII.- RELIGION • Interest in Politics • Religion • Frequency of religious services IV .- PARTICIPATION • Participation in voluntary organizations IX.- SOCIODEMOGRAPHICS • Discuss /talk politics •Sex • Vote In The Last Elections •Age • Parties did you vote for • Education • Occupation V.- INTERPERSONAL TRUST • Household

11 GLOBAL BAROMETER SURVEYS WEBSITE

WITH VARIABLES IN ALL / SOME REGIONS

12 GLOBAL BAROMETER HOMEPAGE

13 GLOBAL BAROMETER WEBSITE CONTENTS

14 DATA

15 SUPPORT OF DEMOCRACY EAST ASIA BAROMETER LATINOBARÓMETRO EUROBAROMETER Denmark 92 Uruguay Thailand 84 78 Costa Rica Sw eden 91 Japan 68 77 Argentina Greece 88 Philippines 64 68 Venezuela The Netherlands 83 Mongolia 57 67 Honduras Spain 78 55 China 54 México Finland 53 78 Korea 49 Perú Austria 52 77 Taiwan 40 Panamá Northern Ireland 51 76 Nicaragua AFROBAROMETER 51 Luxemburg 75 Botswana 85 Bolivia 50 Italy 74 Tanzania 84 Chile 50 Ireland 71

Nigeria 81 Ecuador 46 France 68 Colombia 46 Uganda 80 Great Britain 68 El Salvador 45 Ghana 76 Germany 64 Paraguay 40 Zambia 75 Belgium 60 Brazil 35 Zimbabwe Portugal 71 56 Guatemala 33 Malawi 65 Source: Eurobarometer 1997 NEW EUROPE BAROMETER South Africa 60 Hungary 74 Mali 60 Czech R 72

Namibia 58 Poland 69

Lesotho 40 Russia 29

0 204060801000 20406080100 GLOBAL BAROMETER: New Europe Barometer (2001); Afrobarometer (1999- 2001); East Asia Barometer (2001-2003); Latinobarómetro (2003) 16 NON DEMOCRATS EAST ASIA BAROMETER LATINOBARÓMETRO EUROBAROMETER Portugal 44 59 Guatemala Taiwan 67 Brasil Belgium 40 50 Korea 65 Paraguay Germany 36 P.R.China 46 61 Ecuador Great Britain 32 M ongolia 43 55 El Salvador France 32 55 Philippines 36 Colombia Ireland 29 54 Japan 32 Bolivia Italy 50 26 16 Thailand Perú 50 Luxemburg 25 Chile AFROBAROMETER 50 Northern Ireland 24 Lesot ho 59 Nicaragua 49 Austria 23 Namibia 43 Panamá 49 Finland 22

Sout h A f rica 40 México 47 Spain 22 Mali 40 Honduras 45 The Netherlands 17 Venezuela Malawi 35 32 Greece 12 Argentina 31 Zimbabwe 29 Sw eden 9 Costa Rica 22 Zambia 25 Denmark 8 Uruguay 22 Ghana 24 Source: Eurobarometer 1997 NEW EUROPE BAROMETER Uganda 20 Russia 71 Nigeria 19 Poland 31

Tanzania 17 * Non Democrats include responses ‘Authoritarian Czech R 28 Government, Indifference, DK and NR. Data from the B ot swana 16 Hungary 26 New Europe Barometer are calculated

0 204060801000 20406080100with responses DK and NR missing GLOBAL BAROMETER: New Europe Barometer (2001); Afrobarometer (1999- 2001); East Asia Barometer (2001-2003); Latinobarómetro (2003) 17 SATISFACTION WITH DEMOCRACY NEW EUROPE BAROMETER EAST ASIA BAROMETER Slovenia 61 Thailand 89

Czech R 55 M ongolia 70

Hungary 45 China 68

Lit huania 42 S Korea 61 EUROBAROMETER Poland 39 Philippines 52 Denmark 91 Lat via 35 Hong Kong 48 Est onia 34 Luxemburg 80 Taiwan 48 Belarus 33 Japan 45 Finland 77 Romania 32 LATINOBARÓMETRO Sw eden 75 Russia 31 Costa Rica 46 Bulgaria 28 The Netherlands 70 Uruguay 44 Slovakia 21 France 68 Venezuela 37 Ukraine 19 Honduras 37 Northern Ireland 66 Moldova 17 A rgent ina 34 Ireland AFROBAROMETER 66 Chile 33 Nigeria 84 Belgium 65 El Salvador 33 Botswana 75 Austria 65 Nicaragua 31 Namibia 64 United Kingdom 60 Tanzania 63 Brasil 28 Germany Uganda 62 Bolivia 25 59

Mali 60 Panamá 24 Spain 58 Zambia 59 Ecuador 24 Greece 49 Malawi 57 Colombia 22 Italy 38 Ghana 54 Guat emala 21 Portugal S Af rica 52 México 18 37 Lesot ho 38 Perú 11 Source: Eurobarometer 2003 Zimbabwe 18 Paraguay 9 GLOBAL0 BAROMETER: 20406080100 New EuropeBarometer (2001);0 20406080100Afrobarometer (1999-2001); East Asia Barometer (2001-2003); Latinobarómetro (2003) 18 DISSATISFIED DEMOCRATS EUROBAROMETER (1997) AFROBAROMETER (1999-2001) Democracy is the best Unsatisfied Democracy is the best Unsatisfied Satisfied Satisfied political system Democrats political system Democrats Italy 74 25 49 Zimbabwe 71 18 53 Northern Ireland 76 34 42 Ghana 76 54 22 Belgium 60 18 42 Tanzania 84 63 21 Greece 88 46 42 Uganda 80 62 18 Sweden 91 55 36 Zambia 75 59 16 Germany 64 34 30 Botswana 85 75 10 Spain 78 50 28 Malawi 65 57 8 France 68 41 27 South Africa 60 52 8 Austria 77 57 20 Lesotho 40 38 2 Finland 78 60 18 Mali 60 60 0 Great Britain 68 55 13 Nigeria 81 84 -3 Portugal 56 47 9 Namibia 58 64 -6 The Netherlands 83 76 7 Denmark 92 86 6 Luxemburg 75 69 6 EAST ASIA BAROMETER (2001-2003) Ireland 71 70 1 Democracy is the best Unsatisfied Satisfied political system Democrats LATINOBARÓMETRO (2003) Japan 68 45 23 Democracy is the best Unsatisfied Philippines 64 52 12 Satisfied political system Democrats Thailand 84 89 -5 Perú 50 11 39 Taiwan 40 48 -8 México 53 18 35 Korea 49 61 -12 Argentina 69 34 35 Mongolia 57 70 -13 Uruguay 78 44 34 China 54 68 -14 Costa Rica 78 46 31 Paraguay 39 9 30 NEW DEMOCRACIES BAROMATER (2001) Panamá 51 24 27 Democracy is the best Unsatisfied Satisfied Bolivia 50 25 25 political system Democrats Colombia 46 22 24 Poland 69 39 30 Ecuador 45 24 21 Hungary 74 45 29 Nicaragua 51 31 20 Czech R 72 55 17 Honduras 55 37 18 Russia 29 31 -2 Chile 51 33 17 El Salvador 45 33 12 GLOBAL BAROMETER: New Europe Barometer (2001); Guatemala 33 21 12 Afrobarometer (1999-2001); East Asia Barometer (2001-2003); Brasil 35 28 7 19 Latinobarómetro (2003) TRUST IN TELEVISION AFROBAROMETER EAST ASIA AFROBAROMETER Tanzania 87 M ongolia 85

Mali 87 China 84

Namibia 85 Korea 76

Ghana 80 Thailand 76 Philippines 64 Botswana 71 Hong Kong 61 Sout h Af rica 62 Japan 52 Zambia 58 Taiwan 43 Malawi 57

Lesot ho 53 LATINOBARÓMETRO Paraguay 48 Zimbabwe 41 Chile 45

NEW EUROPE BAROMETER Uruguay 44 Lit huania 67 Costa Rica 39 51 Lat via Panamá 38

Romania 47 Brasil 36

Slovakia 47 Venezuela 35

Poland 44 M éxico 35

Czech Republic 41 Nicaragua 34

Bulgaria 39 Guat emala 34 Bolivia 34 Est onia 37 Colombia 34 Slovenia 31 Ecuador 34 Hung ar y 30 Honduras 33 Russia 29 Perú 32 Croatia 19 A rgent ina 32 Serbia 18 El Salvador 29 0 20406080100 GLOBAL BAROMETER: New Europe Barometer (2001); Afrobarometer0 (1999- 20406080100 2001); East Asia Barometer (2001-2003); Latinobarómetro (2003) 20 TRUST IN PRESIDENT AND 89 Thailand 63 Tanzania 46 SATISFACTION89 WITHTaiwan DEMOCRACY Nigeria 84 AFROBAROMETER 77 EAST ASIA AFROBAROMETER45 64 Philippines Namibia 72 60 42 Mali 71 Korea 57 Malawi 50 75 Botswana 43 34 38 Argentina Lesot ho 41 70 Sout h A f rica 40 22 Colombia LATINOBARÓMETRO53 Zambia 59 38 28 18 Brasil 53 Zimbabwe 19 33 62 Chile Uganda 51 18 México 39 35 Poland 65 NEW EUROPE BAROMETER 37 36 Venezuela Lat via 63 34 Est onia 34 37 58 Honduras 32 42 Lit huania 57 46 31 Costa Rica 31 Russia 50 33 28 El Salvador Bulgaria 50 27 Hungary 45 24 47 Panamá 61 23 Slovenia 44 44 Uruguay Belarus 43 20 32 Romania 25 42 Bolivia 18 55 Czech R 31 37 Nicaragua 19 15 Ukraine 31 24 Ecuador Croatia 31 14 Serbia 30 11 Perú 12 Moldova 17 25 9 GLOBAL BAROMETER: New 21 Paraguay 12 Slovakia 19 Democracies Barometer (2001); 33 21 B yelorussia Guatemala 10 Afrobarometer (1999-2001); East Asia Barometer (2001-2003); 020406080100Satisfaction with Democracy21 Trust in the President Latinobarómetro (2003)