Regional Report: Labor Market Risks of a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake in Alameda County

SUMMARYRegional 07-06 SEPTEMBER 2007 U.S.Report BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS CHART 1 Labor market risks of a Shaking Intensity Zones for a Hypothetical Magnitude magnitude 6.9 earthquake 6.9 Earthquake on the in Alameda County Hayward Fault ccording chance of experiencing a seismic

to the U.S. event by 2032.

Address Service Requested Service Address

Official Business Official Geological Survey, “On average Alameda County is home

Washington, DC 20212-0001 DC Washington, Athe Hayward fault to 41,000 employers, 682,000

2 Massachusetts Ave., NE Ave., Massachusetts 2 generates a damaging employees, and a total quarterly

Postal Square Building, Rm. 2850 Rm. Building, Square Postal payroll of $9.3 billion. The County

U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS LABOR OF BUREAU U.S. earthquake every 150 years...” The last also lies over approximately major earthquake on three-fourths of the length of the the Hayward fault Hayward fault and is therefore occurred in 1868 and the county in the region most was known as the exposed to earthquakes on Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale “Great San Francisco Earthquake” this fault. The map of shaking Zone Value until the more famous quake intensities measured by the  VIII or greater: Severe shaking, moderate/ of 1906. The Hayward fault is Modified Mercalli Intensity heavy damage (MMI) scale in Chart 1, delineates  VII: Very strong shaking, moderate damage particularly important because the shaking intensity zones that  VI: Strong shaking, light damage it underlies Alameda County,  V: Moderate shaking, very light damage a populous, urban area in would occur throughout the area  IV: Light shaking, No damage Northern California, and is in the event of an earthquake of — Fault lines estimated to have a 27 percent Continued inside TABLE 1: Potential Exposure from a Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake along the Hayward Fault: Nine San Francisco Bay Area Counties MMI VIII MMI VII Severe Shaking, Moderate/Heavy Damage Very Strong Shaking, Moderate Damage County Employers Employment Quarterly Wages Employers Employment Quarterly Wages Alameda 25,753 400,462 5,141,738,560 11,567 210,870 3,112,142,678 …from inside Telephone: 415-625-2245. Market Information Division. Contra Costa 3,392 36,606 340,548,652 11,936 180,576 2,609,854,090 Co-authors of this report were Information in this summary Marin 154 1,807 21,803,937 2,280 29,371 416,044,149 Data presented here are for all Charles R. Real, Supervising will be made available to sensory- Napa 56 446 4,189,187 618 11,423 136,324,614 workers covered by State and Engineering Geologist, California impaired individuals upon Federal unemployment insurance Geological Survey, Seismic request. Voice phone: (202) 691- San Francisco 12,220 239,022 4,959,257,643 programs. For additional Hazards Assesment Program; 5200. Federal Relay Service: San Mateo 753 24,249 653,217,259 information, contact Richard and Donna Bahls, Research 1-800-877-8339. This summary Santa Clara 1,084 18,357 263,495,223 15,263 337,954 6,836,033,375 Holden, Regional Commissioner, Program Specialist (GIS), report is in the public domain Solano 5 21 129,180 1,605 20,314 185,098,827 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. California Employment and may be reproduced without Sonoma 89 1,013 10,233,395 265 6,389 87,866,378 E-mail: [email protected]. Development Department, Labor permission.  TOTAL 30,533 458,712 $5,782,138,134 56,507 1,060,168 $18,995,839,013 CHART 2 …from cover fall, in descending order, primarily CHART 3 not all businesses will sustain inside and outside the region upon the counties of Alameda, damage that will curtail their than can be estimated using Employers in Shaking Inten- magnitude 6.9 on the Hayward Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Potential Alameda County activities and some businesses MMI scales and damage zones. sity Zones in a Potential San fault. As is apparent, the most Contra Costa. Employment Exposures to that lose capability will quickly intense (MMI VIII+) zone would Francisco Bay Area Magni- MMI VII-VIII+ from a return to normal operations. Disclaimer: BLS and its be primarily within the borders of  Approximately 84 to 89 percent tude 6.9 Earthquake on the Hypothetical Magnitude Thus, gauging economic impact Alameda County. all of the exposure in the shaking associates are not making a Hayward Fault 6.9 Hayward Fault by projected MMI levels zone MMI-VIII+ would fall in specific earthquake prediction. Moreover, Earthquake may overstate the business when we overlaid Alameda County. The purpose of this employers on Focusing on Alameda County report is to describe Health Care & Social Assistance shaking intensity (see table 2), we estimate that: the labor market Manufacturing zones, as shown  at risk in the event in Chart 2, we Approximately 90 percent Educational Services of one possible found that a of the businesses, employees, Retail Trade large number and payrolls are located in or Professional, Scientific, & Technical Skills earthquake scenario. of employers attributed to the most intense Accommodation & Food Services An article analyzing are located in shaking zones on the map(MMI- Construction the risk of an VII and MMI-VIII and higher). Wholesale Trade areas which earthquake occurring Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation are expected to  More than half of the Transportation & Warehousing along the Hayward experience the businesses, employees, and Finance & Insurance Fault was published Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale greatest intensity as measured payrolls are in the zones Zone Value Other Services by the U.S. Geological by MMI. (The MMI it correlates characterized as having severe  VIII or greater: Severe shaking, moderate/ Information Survey Working heavy damage closely with measured shaking shaking and moderate to heavy Management of Companies & Enterprises  VII: Very strong shaking, moderate damage levels, and is by definition a Group on California damage (MMI-VIII+). Real Estate & Rental & Leasing  VI: Strong shaking, light damage measure of projected damage.) Earthquake  V: Moderate shaking, very light damage  There are more than 600,000 Government Using the tabulating tools in Probabilities in a  IV: Light shaking, No damage geographical information systems employees in the most intense Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 2003 report. The (see table 1), we estimate that: shaking zones earning $8.2 billion About the Modified in quarterly payrolls. Utilities working Group was Mercalli Intensity Scale  Total exposures in the counties Mining  composed of scientists in the San Francisco Bay Area in The interruption to business Non-Classified Seismic intensity is a measure of the from the Federal and effects of an earthquake at different MMI-VII (very strong shaking) from a M6.9 Hayward earthquake 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 sites. Intensity differs from magni- and MMI-VIII+ (severe shaking) could affect nearly all businesses Employment in thousands State governments, tude in that the effects of any one zones, combined, could include and employees in Alameda County. private industry, earthquake vary greatly from place 87,000 employers, 1.5 million consulting firms, to place, so there may be many As shown in Chart 3, the consequences to San Francisco jobs, and quarterly wages interruption or losses that will intensity values measured from one exposures of various industries Bay Area employers and workers and academia. The projected approaching $25 billion. occur. earthquake. Each earthquake, on to damage ranges across the are widespread and are likely to Modified Mercalli Intensity the other hand, should have just  In the wide area circumscribed board, but affect particularly large have an effect on the state and However, direct damage to a scale values associated with one magnitude (often measured by region’s businesses understates the moment magnitude scale or by by shake intensity zones MMI-VII numbers of jobs in health care and national economies, owing to the hypothetical Hayward the interactional effects upon the Richter scale). The Modified or MMI-VIII+, the employment social assistance, manufacturing, economic interaction between earthquake are from the U.S. Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale is and earnings exposures would and trade. The potential economic firms and industries. customers or suppliers inside commonly used to gauge the severity and outside the damaged areas. Geological Survey Shakemap of earthquake effects. Intensity ratings Limitations. TABLE 2: Our analysis of Some businesses locate in regions archives. are expressed as Roman numerals Exposure from a Magitude 6.9 business exposures due to earth- to be near their customers and between I at the least destructive and earthquake along the Hayward Fault quakes has certain limitations. suppliers. If this relationship is The employment data used XII at the most destructive. At MMI- in this summary were obtained VIII, while damage may be slight in Alameda County, 2006 Shaking Intensity Areas The Modified Mercalli Index interrupted by an earthquake, specially designed structures, there County Totals MMI VIII+ MMI VII Combined values describe damage levels both customers and suppliers by the Quarterly Census of is often considerable damage and Employers 40,851 25,753 11,567 37,320 ranging from predominantly light could be severely affected or even Employment and Wages in partial collapse even in substantial Jobs 681,821 400,462 210,870 611,332 to widespread heavy damage. put out of business. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ordinary buildings. Quarterly Wages $9.3B $5.1B $3.1B $8.2B In fact, even in the latter areas, there also may be greater losses Continued on back CHART 2 …from cover fall, in descending order, primarily CHART 3 not all businesses will sustain inside and outside the region upon the counties of Alameda, damage that will curtail their than can be estimated using Employers in Shaking Inten- magnitude 6.9 on the Hayward Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Potential Alameda County activities and some businesses MMI scales and damage zones. sity Zones in a Potential San fault. As is apparent, the most Contra Costa. Employment Exposures to that lose capability will quickly intense (MMI VIII+) zone would Francisco Bay Area Magni- MMI VII-VIII+ from a return to normal operations. Disclaimer: BLS and its be primarily within the borders of  Approximately 84 to 89 percent tude 6.9 Earthquake on the Hypothetical Magnitude Thus, gauging economic impact Alameda County. all of the exposure in the shaking associates are not making a Hayward Fault 6.9 Hayward Fault by projected MMI levels zone MMI-VIII+ would fall in specific earthquake prediction. Moreover, Earthquake may overstate the business when we overlaid Alameda County. The purpose of this employers on Focusing on Alameda County report is to describe Health Care & Social Assistance shaking intensity (see table 2), we estimate that: the labor market Manufacturing zones, as shown  at risk in the event in Chart 2, we Approximately 90 percent Educational Services of one possible found that a of the businesses, employees, Retail Trade large number and payrolls are located in or Professional, Scientific, & Technical Skills earthquake scenario. of employers attributed to the most intense Accommodation & Food Services An article analyzing are located in shaking zones on the map(MMI- Construction the risk of an VII and MMI-VIII and higher). Wholesale Trade areas which earthquake occurring Admin & Support & Waste Mgmt & Remediation are expected to  More than half of the Transportation & Warehousing along the Hayward experience the businesses, employees, and Finance & Insurance Fault was published Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale greatest intensity as measured payrolls are in the zones Zone Value Other Services by the U.S. Geological by MMI. (The MMI it correlates characterized as having severe  VIII or greater: Severe shaking, moderate/ Information Survey Working heavy damage closely with measured shaking shaking and moderate to heavy Management of Companies & Enterprises  VII: Very strong shaking, moderate damage levels, and is by definition a Group on California damage (MMI-VIII+). Real Estate & Rental & Leasing  VI: Strong shaking, light damage measure of projected damage.) Earthquake  V: Moderate shaking, very light damage  There are more than 600,000 Government Using the tabulating tools in Probabilities in a  IV: Light shaking, No damage geographical information systems employees in the most intense Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 2003 report. The (see table 1), we estimate that: shaking zones earning $8.2 billion About the Modified in quarterly payrolls. Utilities working Group was Mercalli Intensity Scale  Total exposures in the counties Mining  composed of scientists in the San Francisco Bay Area in The interruption to business Non-Classified Seismic intensity is a measure of the from the Federal and effects of an earthquake at different MMI-VII (very strong shaking) from a M6.9 Hayward earthquake 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 sites. Intensity differs from magni- and MMI-VIII+ (severe shaking) could affect nearly all businesses Employment in thousands State governments, tude in that the effects of any one zones, combined, could include and employees in Alameda County. private industry, earthquake vary greatly from place 87,000 employers, 1.5 million consulting firms, to place, so there may be many As shown in Chart 3, the consequences to San Francisco jobs, and quarterly wages interruption or losses that will intensity values measured from one exposures of various industries Bay Area employers and workers and academia. The projected approaching $25 billion. occur. earthquake. Each earthquake, on to damage ranges across the are widespread and are likely to Modified Mercalli Intensity the other hand, should have just  In the wide area circumscribed board, but affect particularly large have an effect on the state and However, direct damage to a scale values associated with one magnitude (often measured by region’s businesses understates the moment magnitude scale or by by shake intensity zones MMI-VII numbers of jobs in health care and national economies, owing to the hypothetical Hayward the interactional effects upon the Richter scale). The Modified or MMI-VIII+, the employment social assistance, manufacturing, economic interaction between earthquake are from the U.S. Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale is and earnings exposures would and trade. The potential economic firms and industries. customers or suppliers inside commonly used to gauge the severity and outside the damaged areas. Geological Survey Shakemap of earthquake effects. Intensity ratings Limitations. TABLE 2: Our analysis of Some businesses locate in regions archives. are expressed as Roman numerals Exposure from a Magitude 6.9 business exposures due to earth- to be near their customers and between I at the least destructive and earthquake along the Hayward Fault quakes has certain limitations. suppliers. If this relationship is The employment data used XII at the most destructive. At MMI- in this summary were obtained VIII, while damage may be slight in Alameda County, 2006 Shaking Intensity Areas The Modified Mercalli Index interrupted by an earthquake, specially designed structures, there County Totals MMI VIII+ MMI VII Combined values describe damage levels both customers and suppliers by the Quarterly Census of is often considerable damage and Employers 40,851 25,753 11,567 37,320 ranging from predominantly light could be severely affected or even Employment and Wages in partial collapse even in substantial Jobs 681,821 400,462 210,870 611,332 to widespread heavy damage. put out of business. Therefore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ordinary buildings. Quarterly Wages $9.3B $5.1B $3.1B $8.2B In fact, even in the latter areas, there also may be greater losses Continued on back SUMMARYRegional 07-06 SEPTEMBER 2007 U.S.Report BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS CHART 1 Labor market risks of a Shaking Intensity Zones for a Hypothetical Magnitude magnitude 6.9 earthquake 6.9 Earthquake on the in Alameda County Hayward Fault ccording chance of experiencing a seismic