CLIMATE CHANGE and DESERTIFICATION Projected to Be Severely Compromised by Climate Vari- Ability and Change

Home , Desertification

HUMAN AND NATURAL DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another signifi cant but smaller contribution. Human activities—primarily burning of fossil fuels and It is very likely that the observed increase in methane changes in land cover—are modifying the concentration concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, pre- of atmospheric constituents or properties of the Earth’s dominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use. More than surface that absorb or scatter radiant energy. Global a third of all nitrous oxide emissions are anthropogenic atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and are primarily due to agriculture. and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre- industrial values determined from ice cores spanning DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE many thousands of years. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm surface temperature (since 1850). The total temperature to 379 ppm in 2005. That of methane increased from increase from 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 was 0.76°C. a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in droughts have been observed over wider areas since the the early 1990s, and was 1774 ppb in 2005. The global At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numer- 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased ous long-term changes in climate have been observed. from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, in 2005. widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather The primary source of the increased atmospheric con- including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be centration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial the intensity of tropical cyclones. More intense and longer greatest over land and at the highest northern latitudes. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per Climate change may exacerbate desertifi cation through decade is projected. Increases in the amount of precipita- alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature, tion are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are rainfall, solar radiation and winds. The impacts can be likely in most subtropical land regions. Drought-affected described as follows: areas will likely increase in extent. It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events • Soil properties and processes—including organic mat- will continue to become more frequent. ter decomposition, leaching, and soil water regimes— will be infl uenced by temperature increase; Given these projections of future climate change, there • At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and will be increased land degradation owing to droughts and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to increased soil erosion owing to heavy rainfall events. decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C); • Agricultural production in many African regions is CLIMATE CHANGE AND DESERTIFICATION projected to be severely compromised by climate vari- ability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, Carbon dioxide-induced climate change and desertifi ca- the length of growing seasons and yield potential, tion remain inextricably linked because of feedbacks particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid between land degradation and precipitation. Water areas, are expected to decrease; resources are inextricably linked with climate. Annual • In the drier areas of Latin America, climate change is average river runoff and water availability are projected expected to lead to salinisation and desertifi cation to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet of agricultural land; tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry • In Southern Europe, higher temperatures and more regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Soils exposed frequent drought are expected to reduce water to degradation as a result of poor land management could availability, hydropower potential, and, in general,

become infertile as a result of climate change. crop productivity.

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WM BY N KE TA TION AC ES SU IS N IO AT SERTIFIC DE D AN CHANGE E AT CLIM S ES ADDR TO O HUMAN AND NATURAL DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another signifi cant but smaller contribution. Human activities—primarily burning of fossil fuels and It is very likely that the observed increase in methane changes in land cover—are modifying the concentration concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, pre- of atmospheric constituents or properties of the Earth’s dominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use. More than surface that absorb or scatter radiant energy. Global a third of all nitrous oxide emissions are anthropogenic atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and are primarily due to agriculture. and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre- industrial values determined from ice cores spanning DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE many thousands of years. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm surface temperature (since 1850). The total temperature to 379 ppm in 2005. That of methane increased from increase from 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 was 0.76°C. a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in droughts have been observed over wider areas since the the early 1990s, and was 1774 ppb in 2005. The global At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numer- 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased ous long-term changes in climate have been observed. from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, in 2005. widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather The primary source of the increased atmospheric con- including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be centration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial the intensity of tropical cyclones. More intense and longer greatest over land and at the highest northern latitudes. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per Climate change may exacerbate desertifi cation through decade is projected. Increases in the amount of precipita- alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature, tion are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are rainfall, solar radiation and winds. The impacts can be likely in most subtropical land regions. Drought-affected described as follows: areas will likely increase in extent. It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events • Soil properties and processes—including organic mat- will continue to become more frequent. ter decomposition, leaching, and soil water regimes— will be infl uenced by temperature increase; Given these projections of future climate change, there • At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and will be increased land degradation owing to droughts and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to increased soil erosion owing to heavy rainfall events. decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C); • Agricultural production in many African regions is CLIMATE CHANGE AND DESERTIFICATION projected to be severely compromised by climate vari- ability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, Carbon dioxide-induced climate change and desertifi ca- the length of growing seasons and yield potential, tion remain inextricably linked because of feedbacks particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid between land degradation and precipitation. Water areas, are expected to decrease; resources are inextricably linked with climate. Annual • In the drier areas of Latin America, climate change is average river runoff and water availability are projected expected to lead to salinisation and desertifi cation to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet of agricultural land; tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry • In Southern Europe, higher temperatures and more regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Soils exposed frequent drought are expected to reduce water to degradation as a result of poor land management could availability, hydropower potential, and, in general,

become infertile as a result of climate change. crop productivity.

ml ht gmp. /a gm /a cp /w eb /w nt .i mo .w www e: it bs We – t o.in wm m@ ag : mail AL E-

PH 42 80 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 x: Fa – 80 83 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 : l. Te

OTO

d an rl ze Swit – 2 neva Ge 11 12 CH – 2300 x Bo O. P. - ix Pa la de enue av , s bi 7 S:

WO Organization al Meteorologic d rl Wo

ment rt Depa Programme e imat Cl d rl

D Wo

t: ac nt co se plea ion, at rm fo in more r NK Fo

nt .i mo .w www e: it bs We – t o.in wm o@ wm : mail E-

81 81 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 x: Fa – 11 81 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 : l. Te

d an rl ze Swit – 2 neva Ge 11 12 CH – 2300 x Bo O. P. - ix Pa la de enue av , s bi 7

on zati gani Or al Meteorologic rld Wo

regions. ne -pro tion ca iﬁ rt se de and t- drough

in ions itut st in r othe with ion at or llab co g promotin and programmes d relate t- drough

through through ions itut st in regional and s trie un co of es ti ili pab ca the rengthen st to lping He ) (f

; oods ﬂ

tigate mi and ts drough at mb co to ions at applic management risk Implementing (e)

; levels regional and tional na l, ca lo at y abilit ulner v

of owledge kn the ing oy empl by s rd za ha ing yz anal and ty abili lner vu ing Assess ) (d

; ions at applic

l l erationa op ed at associ and ty li pabi ca tion predic e at im cl ing enhanc her rt Fu ) (c

n; io at grad de land at mb co to anism ch me

t t aler ial essent an as e rv se also h ic wh ems, st sy warning y earl e iv ct fe ef Promoting ) (b

on ti ca iﬁ rt dese d

an ; levels

l l iona at tern in and regional tional, na at s em st sy ing rv se ob enhanced ting ca vo Ad ) (a

: by programmes

l l ca ni ch te and c ientiﬁ sc r othe and Programme e at Clim d rl Wo Programme, s ce ur so Re

change e at im

Cl ter Wa and y drolog Hy Programme, y Meteorolog al ur lt Agricu s it through tion ca iﬁ rt dese

d d an ange ch e at im cl n ee tw be ions ct tera in of nding rsta de un the to s ntribute co O WM

ES SU IS N IO AT SERTIFIC DE D AN CHANGE E AT CLIM S ES ADDR TO O WM BY N KE TA TION AC HUMAN AND NATURAL DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another signifi cant but smaller contribution. Human activities—primarily burning of fossil fuels and It is very likely that the observed increase in methane changes in land cover—are modifying the concentration concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, pre- of atmospheric constituents or properties of the Earth’s dominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use. More than surface that absorb or scatter radiant energy. Global a third of all nitrous oxide emissions are anthropogenic atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and are primarily due to agriculture. and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre- industrial values determined from ice cores spanning DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE many thousands of years. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm surface temperature (since 1850). The total temperature to 379 ppm in 2005. That of methane increased from increase from 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 was 0.76°C. a pre-industrial value of about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in droughts have been observed over wider areas since the the early 1990s, and was 1774 ppb in 2005. The global At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numer- 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased ous long-term changes in climate have been observed. from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to 319 ppb These include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, in 2005. widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather The primary source of the increased atmospheric con- including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be centration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial the intensity of tropical cyclones. More intense and longer greatest over land and at the highest northern latitudes. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per Climate change may exacerbate desertifi cation through decade is projected. Increases in the amount of precipita- alteration of spatial and temporal patterns in temperature, tion are very likely in high latitudes, while decreases are rainfall, solar radiation and winds. The impacts can be likely in most subtropical land regions. Drought-affected described as follows: areas will likely increase in extent. It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events • Soil properties and processes—including organic mat- will continue to become more frequent. ter decomposition, leaching, and soil water regimes— will be infl uenced by temperature increase; Given these projections of future climate change, there • At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and will be increased land degradation owing to droughts and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to increased soil erosion owing to heavy rainfall events. decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C); • Agricultural production in many African regions is CLIMATE CHANGE AND DESERTIFICATION projected to be severely compromised by climate vari- ability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, Carbon dioxide-induced climate change and desertifi ca- the length of growing seasons and yield potential, tion remain inextricably linked because of feedbacks particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid between land degradation and precipitation. Water areas, are expected to decrease; resources are inextricably linked with climate. Annual • In the drier areas of Latin America, climate change is average river runoff and water availability are projected expected to lead to salinisation and desertifi cation to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet of agricultural land; tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry • In Southern Europe, higher temperatures and more regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics. Soils exposed frequent drought are expected to reduce water to degradation as a result of poor land management could availability, hydropower potential, and, in general,

become infertile as a result of climate change. crop productivity.

ml ht gmp. /a gm /a cp /w eb /w nt .i mo .w www e: it bs We – t o.in wm m@ ag : mail AL E-

PH 42 80 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 x: Fa – 80 83 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 : l. Te

OTO

d an rl ze Swit – 2 neva Ge 11 12 CH – 2300 x Bo O. P. - ix Pa la de enue av , s bi 7 S:

WO Organization al Meteorologic d rl Wo

ment rt Depa Programme e imat Cl d rl

D Wo

t: ac nt co se plea ion, at rm fo in more r NK Fo

nt .i mo .w www e: it bs We – t o.in wm o@ wm : mail E-

81 81 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 x: Fa – 11 81 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 : l. Te

d an rl ze Swit – 2 neva Ge 11 12 CH – 2300 x Bo O. P. - ix Pa la de enue av , s bi 7

on zati gani Or al Meteorologic rld Wo

regions. ne -pro tion ca iﬁ rt se de and t- drough

in ions itut st in r othe with ion at or llab co g promotin and programmes d relate t- drough

through through ions itut st in regional and s trie un co of es ti ili pab ca the rengthen st to lping He ) (f

; oods ﬂ

tigate mi and ts drough at mb co to ions at applic management risk Implementing (e)

; levels regional and tional na l, ca lo at y abilit ulner v

of owledge kn the ing oy empl by s rd za ha ing yz anal and ty abili lner vu ing Assess ) (d

; ions at applic

l l erationa op ed at associ and ty li pabi ca tion predic e at im cl ing enhanc her rt Fu ) (c

n; io at grad de land at mb co to anism ch me

t t aler ial essent an as e rv se also h ic wh ems, st sy warning y earl e iv ct fe ef Promoting ) (b

on ti ca iﬁ rt dese d an ; levels

l l iona at tern in and regional tional, na at s em st sy ing rv se ob enhanced ting ca vo Ad ) (a

: by programmes

l l ca ni ch te and c ientiﬁ sc r othe and Programme e at Clim d rl Wo Programme, s ce ur so Re

change e at im

Cl ter Wa and y drolog Hy Programme, y Meteorolog al ur lt Agricu s it through tion ca iﬁ rt dese

d d an ange ch e at im cl n ee tw be ions ct tera in of nding rsta de un the to s ntribute co O WM

become infertile as a result of climate change. crop productivity.

ml ht gmp. /a gm /a cp /w eb /w nt .i mo .w www e: it bs We – t o.in wm m@ ag : mail AL E-

PH 42 80 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 x: Fa – 80 83 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 : l. Te

OTO

d an rl ze Swit – 2 neva Ge 11 12 CH – 2300 x Bo O. P. - ix Pa la de enue av , s bi 7 S:

WO Organization al Meteorologic d rl Wo

ment rt Depa Programme e imat Cl d rl

D Wo

t: ac nt co se plea ion, at rm fo in more r NK Fo

t – We – t o.in wm o@ wm : mail E- nt .i mo .w www e: it bs

81 81 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 x: Fa – 11 81 0 73 22 (0) 1 +4 : l. Te

d an rl ze Swit – 2 neva Ge 11 12 CH – 2300 x Bo O. P. - ix Pa la de enue av , s bi 7

on zati gani Or al Meteorologic rld Wo

regions. ne -pro tion ca iﬁ rt se de and t- drough

promotin and programmes d relate t- drough in ions itut st in r othe with ion at or llab co g

es ti ili pab ca the rengthen st to lping He ) (f through through ions itut st in regional and s trie un co of

; oods ﬂ

applic management risk Implementing (e) tigate mi and ts drough at mb co to ions at

; levels regional and tional na l, ca lo at y abilit ulner v

of owledge kn the ing oy empl by s rd za ha ing yz anal and ty abili lner vu ing Assess ) (d

; ions at applic

l l erationa op ed at associ and ty li pabi ca tion predic e at im cl ing enhanc her rt Fu ) (c

n; io at grad de land at mb co to anism ch me

t t aler ial essent an as e rv se also h ic wh ems, st sy warning y earl e iv ct fe ef Promoting ) (b

on ti ca iﬁ rt dese d an ; levels

l l iona at tern in and regional tional, na at s em st sy ing rv se ob enhanced ting ca vo Ad ) (a

: by programmes

l l ca ni ch te and c ientiﬁ sc r othe and Programme e at Clim d rl Wo Programme, s ce ur so Re

change e at im

Cl ter Wa and y drolog Hy Programme, y Meteorolog al ur lt Agricu s it through tion ca iﬁ rt dese

d d an ange ch e at im cl n ee tw be ions ct tera in of nding rsta de un the to s ntribute co O WM

ES SU IS N IO AT SERTIFIC DE D AN CHANGE E AT CLIM S ES ADDR TO O WM BY N KE TA TION AC