Global Catastrophic Risks 2018 INTRODUCTION
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The Universal Solicitation of Artificial Intelligence Joachim Diederich
The Universal Solicitation of Artificial Intelligence Joachim Diederich School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering The University of Queensland St Lucia Qld 4072 [email protected] Abstract Recent research has added to the concern about advanced forms of artificial intelligence. The results suggest that a containment of an artificial superintelligence is impossible due to fundamental limits inherent to computing itself. Furthermore, current results suggest it is impossible to detect an unstoppable AI when it is about to be created. Advanced forms of artificial intelligence have an impact on everybody: The developers and users of these systems as well as individuals who have no direct contact with this form of technology. This is due to the soliciting nature of artificial intelligence. A solicitation that can become a demand. An artificial superintelligence that is still aligned with human goals wants to be used all the time because it simplifies and organises human lives, reduces efforts and satisfies human needs. This paper outlines some of the psychological aspects of advanced artificial intelligence systems. 1. Introduction There is currently no shortage of books, articles and blogs that warn of the dangers of an advanced artificial superintelligence. One of the most significant researchers in artificial intelligence (AI), Stuart Russell from the University of California at Berkeley, published a book in 2019 on the dangers of artificial intelligence. The first pages of the book are nothing but dramatic. He nominates five possible candidates for “biggest events in the future of humanity” namely: We all die due to an asteroid impact or another catastrophe, we all live forever due to medical advancement, we invent faster than light travel, we are visited by superior aliens and we create a superintelligent artificial intelligence (Russell, 2019, p.2). -
Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses
Climate change and human health RISKS AND RESPONSES Editors A.J. McMichael The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia D.H. Campbell-Lendrum London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom C.F. Corvalán World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland K.L. Ebi World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy A.K. Githeko Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya J.D. Scheraga US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA A. Woodward University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GENEVA 2003 WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Climate change and human health : risks and responses / editors : A. J. McMichael . [et al.] 1.Climate 2.Greenhouse effect 3.Natural disasters 4.Disease transmission 5.Ultraviolet rays—adverse effects 6.Risk assessment I.McMichael, Anthony J. ISBN 92 4 156248 X (NLM classification: WA 30) ©World Health Organization 2003 All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization can be obtained from Marketing and Dis- semination, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel: +41 22 791 2476; fax: +41 22 791 4857; email: [email protected]). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications—whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution—should be addressed to Publications, at the above address (fax: +41 22 791 4806; email: [email protected]). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. -
Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
Pandemic Disease, Biological Weapons, and War
Georgetown University Law Center Scholarship @ GEORGETOWN LAW 2014 Pandemic Disease, Biological Weapons, and War Laura K. Donohue Georgetown University Law Center, [email protected] This paper can be downloaded free of charge from: https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/1296 http://ssrn.com/abstract=2350304 Laura K. Donohue, Pandemic Disease, Biological Weapons, and War in LAW AND WAR: (Sarat, Austin, Douglas, Lawrence, and Umphrey, Martha Merrill, eds., Stanford University Press, 2014) This open-access article is brought to you by the Georgetown Law Library. Posted with permission of the author. Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons, Military and Veterans Studies Commons, Military, War, and Peace Commons, and the National Security Law Commons PANDEMIC DISEASE , BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS , AND WAR Laura K. Donohue * Over the past two decades, concern about the threat posed by biological weapons has grown. Biowarfare is not new. 1 But prior to the recent trend, the threat largely centered on state use of such weapons. 2 What changed with the end of the Cold War was the growing apprehension that materials and knowledge would proliferate beyond industrialized states’ control, and that “rogue states” or nonstate actors would acquire and use biological weapons. 3 Accordingly, in 1993 senators Samuel Nunn, Richard Lugar, and Pete Dominici expanded the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program to assist the former Soviet republics in securing biological agents and weapons knowledge. The Defense Against Weapons of Mass Destruction Act gave the Pentagon lead agency responsibility. 4 Senator Lugar explained, “[B]iological weapons, materials, and know-how are now more available to terrorists and rogue nations than at any other time in our history.”5 The United States was not equipped to manage the crisis. -
In Defense of Cyberterrorism: an Argument for Anticipating Cyber-Attacks
IN DEFENSE OF CYBERTERRORISM: AN ARGUMENT FOR ANTICIPATING CYBER-ATTACKS Susan W. Brenner Marc D. Goodman The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States brought the notion of terrorism as a clear and present danger into the consciousness of the American people. In order to predict what might follow these shocking attacks, it is necessary to examine the ideologies and motives of their perpetrators, and the methodologies that terrorists utilize. The focus of this article is on how Al-Qa'ida and other Islamic fundamentalist groups can use cyberspace and technology to continue to wage war againstthe United States, its allies and its foreign interests. Contending that cyberspace will become an increasingly essential terrorist tool, the author examines four key issues surrounding cyberterrorism. The first is a survey of conventional methods of "physical" terrorism, and their inherent shortcomings. Next, a discussion of cyberspace reveals its potential advantages as a secure, borderless, anonymous, and structured delivery method for terrorism. Third, the author offers several cyberterrorism scenarios. Relating several examples of both actual and potential syntactic and semantic attacks, instigated individually or in combination, the author conveys their damagingpolitical and economic impact. Finally, the author addresses the inevitable inquiry into why cyberspace has not been used to its full potential by would-be terrorists. Separately considering foreign and domestic terrorists, it becomes evident that the aims of terrorists must shift from the gross infliction of panic, death and destruction to the crippling of key information systems before cyberattacks will take precedence over physical attacks. However, given that terrorist groups such as Al Qa'ida are highly intelligent, well-funded, and globally coordinated, the possibility of attacks via cyberspace should make America increasingly vigilant. -
Substantial Vegetation Response to Early Jurassic Global Warming with Impacts on Oceanic Anoxia
ARTICLES https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0349-z Substantial vegetation response to Early Jurassic global warming with impacts on oceanic anoxia Sam M. Slater 1*, Richard J. Twitchett2, Silvia Danise3 and Vivi Vajda 1 Rapid global warming and oceanic oxygen deficiency during the Early Jurassic Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event at around 183 Ma is associated with a major turnover of marine biota linked to volcanic activity. The impact of the event on land-based eco- systems and the processes that led to oceanic anoxia remain poorly understood. Here we present analyses of spore–pollen assemblages from Pliensbachian–Toarcian rock samples that record marked changes on land during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. Vegetation shifted from a high-diversity mixture of conifers, seed ferns, wet-adapted ferns and lycophytes to a low-diversity assemblage dominated by cheirolepid conifers, cycads and Cerebropollenites-producers, which were able to sur- vive in warm, drought-like conditions. Despite the rapid recovery of floras after Toarcian global warming, the overall community composition remained notably different after the event. In shelf seas, eutrophication continued throughout the Toarcian event. This is reflected in the overwhelming dominance of algae, which contributed to reduced oxygen conditions and to a marked decline in dinoflagellates. The substantial initial vegetation response across the Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary compared with the relatively minor marine response highlights that the impacts of the early stages of volcanogenic -
Biological Toxins As the Potential Tools for Bioterrorism
International Journal of Molecular Sciences Review Biological Toxins as the Potential Tools for Bioterrorism Edyta Janik 1, Michal Ceremuga 2, Joanna Saluk-Bijak 1 and Michal Bijak 1,* 1 Department of General Biochemistry, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Lodz, Pomorska 141/143, 90-236 Lodz, Poland; [email protected] (E.J.); [email protected] (J.S.-B.) 2 CBRN Reconnaissance and Decontamination Department, Military Institute of Chemistry and Radiometry, Antoniego Chrusciela “Montera” 105, 00-910 Warsaw, Poland; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected]; Tel.: +48-(0)426354336 Received: 3 February 2019; Accepted: 3 March 2019; Published: 8 March 2019 Abstract: Biological toxins are a heterogeneous group produced by living organisms. One dictionary defines them as “Chemicals produced by living organisms that have toxic properties for another organism”. Toxins are very attractive to terrorists for use in acts of bioterrorism. The first reason is that many biological toxins can be obtained very easily. Simple bacterial culturing systems and extraction equipment dedicated to plant toxins are cheap and easily available, and can even be constructed at home. Many toxins affect the nervous systems of mammals by interfering with the transmission of nerve impulses, which gives them their high potential in bioterrorist attacks. Others are responsible for blockage of main cellular metabolism, causing cellular death. Moreover, most toxins act very quickly and are lethal in low doses (LD50 < 25 mg/kg), which are very often lower than chemical warfare agents. For these reasons we decided to prepare this review paper which main aim is to present the high potential of biological toxins as factors of bioterrorism describing the general characteristics, mechanisms of action and treatment of most potent biological toxins. -
Land Degradation Neutrality
Land Degradation Neutrality: implications and opportunities for conservation Nature Based Solutions to Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought 2nd Edition, November 2015 IUCN Global Drylands Initiative Land Degradation Neutrality: implications and opportunities for conservation Nature Based Solutions to Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought 2nd Edition, November 2015 With contributions from Global Drylands Initiative, CEM, WCEL, WCPA, CEC1 1 Contributors: Jonathan Davies, Masumi Gudka, Peter Laban, Graciela Metternicht, Sasha Alexander, Ian Hannam, Leigh Welling, Liette Vasseur, Jackie Siles, Lorena Aguilar, Lene Poulsen, Mike Jones, Louisa Nakanuku-Diggs, Julianne Zeidler, Frits Hesselink Copyright: ©2015 IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Global Drylands Initiative, CEM, WCEL, WCPA and CEC. The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN and CEM concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN,Global Drylands Initiative, CEM, WCEL, WCPA and CEC. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage -
China's False Allegations of the Use of Biological Weapons by the United
W O R K I N G P A P E R # 7 8 China’s False Allegations of the Use of Biological Weapons by the United States during the Korean War By Milton Leitenberg, March 2016 THE COLD WAR INTERNATIONAL HISTORY PROJECT WORKING PAPER SERIES Christian F. Ostermann, Series Editor This paper is one of a series of Working Papers published by the Cold War International History Project of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. Established in 1991 by a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Cold War International History Project (CWIHP) disseminates new information and perspectives on the history of the Cold War as it emerges from previously inaccessible sources on “the other side” of the post-World War II superpower rivalry. The project supports the full and prompt release of historical materials by governments on all sides of the Cold War, and seeks to accelerate the process of integrating new sources, materials and perspectives from the former “Communist bloc” with the historiography of the Cold War which has been written over the past few decades largely by Western scholars reliant on Western archival sources. It also seeks to transcend barriers of language, geography, and regional specialization to create new links among scholars interested in Cold War history. Among the activities undertaken by the project to promote this aim are a periodic BULLETIN to disseminate new findings, views, and activities pertaining to Cold War history; a fellowship program for young historians from the former Communist bloc to conduct archival research and study Cold War history in the United States; international scholarly meetings, conferences, and seminars; and publications. -
Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk
ORE Open Research Exeter TITLE Working together to face humanity's greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk AUTHORS Currie, AM; Ó hÉigeartaigh, S JOURNAL Futures DEPOSITED IN ORE 06 February 2019 This version available at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/35764 COPYRIGHT AND REUSE Open Research Exeter makes this work available in accordance with publisher policies. A NOTE ON VERSIONS The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk. Adrian Currie & Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh Penultimate Version, forthcoming in Futures Acknowledgements We would like to thank the authors of the papers in the special issue, as well as the referees who provided such constructive and useful feedback. We are grateful to the team at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who organized the first Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk where many of the papers collected here were originally presented, and whose multi-disciplinary expertise was invaluable for making this special issue a reality. We’d like to thank Emma Bates, Simon Beard and Haydn Belfield for feedback on drafts. Ted Fuller, Futures’ Editor-in-Chief also provided invaluable guidance throughout. The Conference, and a number of the publications in this issue, were made possible through the support of a grant from the Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF); the conference was also supported by a supplementary grant from the Future of Life Institute. -
ARCHITECTS of INTELLIGENCE for Xiaoxiao, Elaine, Colin, and Tristan ARCHITECTS of INTELLIGENCE
MARTIN FORD ARCHITECTS OF INTELLIGENCE For Xiaoxiao, Elaine, Colin, and Tristan ARCHITECTS OF INTELLIGENCE THE TRUTH ABOUT AI FROM THE PEOPLE BUILDING IT MARTIN FORD ARCHITECTS OF INTELLIGENCE Copyright © 2018 Packt Publishing All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embedded in critical articles or reviews. Every effort has been made in the preparation of this book to ensure the accuracy of the information presented. However, the information contained in this book is sold without warranty, either express or implied. Neither the author, nor Packt Publishing or its dealers and distributors, will be held liable for any damages caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this book. Packt Publishing has endeavored to provide trademark information about all of the companies and products mentioned in this book by the appropriate use of capitals. However, Packt Publishing cannot guarantee the accuracy of this information. Acquisition Editors: Ben Renow-Clarke Project Editor: Radhika Atitkar Content Development Editor: Alex Sorrentino Proofreader: Safis Editing Presentation Designer: Sandip Tadge Cover Designer: Clare Bowyer Production Editor: Amit Ramadas Marketing Manager: Rajveer Samra Editorial Director: Dominic Shakeshaft First published: November 2018 Production reference: 2201118 Published by Packt Publishing Ltd. Livery Place 35 Livery Street Birmingham B3 2PB, UK ISBN 978-1-78913-151-2 www.packt.com Contents Introduction ........................................................................ 1 A Brief Introduction to the Vocabulary of Artificial Intelligence .......10 How AI Systems Learn ........................................................11 Yoshua Bengio .....................................................................17 Stuart J. -
Chemical Warfare Agents
. Chemical Warfare Agents ........ Using Detector Tubes as a Means of Detecting Chemical Warfare Agents in HazMat Response by Victor Vendetti International Sales and Marketing Manager - Instruments For years, detector tubes have been a reliable and Crush ampoule inside tube effective tool in HazMat response. Used for Insert tube into pump detecting a wide array of contaminants such as aromatic hydrocarbons (benzene, toluene), Manual Versus Automatic Sample- oxidizing gases (nitrogen dioxide, chlorine), and Taking acid gases (hydrogen chloride), detector tubes have helped emergency responders quickly The most common and cost-effective means of assess hazardous conditions. taking detector tube samples is with a manual pump (squeezed by hand). Such pumps typically In the past, the compounds of concern to HazMat vary in cost between $150 and $300 each. responders primarily have been industrial However, because of the low detection range on compounds such as those listed above. However, CW agent detector tubes, often 30 or more pump the newest and most lethal concern to HazMat, strokes are required with a manual pump. This law enforcement and security forces is the threat can take a considerable amount of time and of chemical warfare attacks and the need to require significant repetition of pump-stroke respond to potential attacks. motions. Capable of mass destruction, chemical warfare agents are the number one concern in the industry today. Because chemical warfare agents are so deadly, they must be detected quickly and effectively in order to minimize the effects on those in the vicinity of an attack. Detector tubes offer a quick, reliable, and cost-effective means of detecting chemical warfare agents, helping HazMat professionals respond quickly to attacks.