Chapter 1 Ozone and Climate
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Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS
atmosphere Article Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing in the Online Aerosol Coupled CAS-FGOALS-f3-L Climate Model Hao Wang 1,2,3, Tie Dai 1,2,* , Min Zhao 1,2,3, Daisuke Goto 4, Qing Bao 1, Toshihiko Takemura 5 , Teruyuki Nakajima 4 and Guangyu Shi 1,2,3 1 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; [email protected] (H.W.); [email protected] (M.Z.); [email protected] (Q.B.); [email protected] (G.S.) 2 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China 3 College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 4 National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan; [email protected] (D.G.); [email protected] (T.N.) 5 Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-8299-5452 Received: 21 September 2020; Accepted: 14 October 2020; Published: 17 October 2020 Abstract: The effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol can be more representative of the eventual climate response than other radiative forcing. We incorporate aerosol–cloud interaction into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System (CAS-FGOALS-f3-L) by coupling an existing aerosol module named the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS) and quantified the ERF and its primary components (i.e., effective radiative forcing of aerosol-radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ERFaci)) based on the protocol of current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). -
Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses
Climate change and human health RISKS AND RESPONSES Editors A.J. McMichael The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia D.H. Campbell-Lendrum London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom C.F. Corvalán World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland K.L. Ebi World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy A.K. Githeko Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya J.D. Scheraga US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA A. Woodward University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GENEVA 2003 WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Climate change and human health : risks and responses / editors : A. J. McMichael . [et al.] 1.Climate 2.Greenhouse effect 3.Natural disasters 4.Disease transmission 5.Ultraviolet rays—adverse effects 6.Risk assessment I.McMichael, Anthony J. ISBN 92 4 156248 X (NLM classification: WA 30) ©World Health Organization 2003 All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization can be obtained from Marketing and Dis- semination, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel: +41 22 791 2476; fax: +41 22 791 4857; email: [email protected]). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications—whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution—should be addressed to Publications, at the above address (fax: +41 22 791 4806; email: [email protected]). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. -
Climate Models and Their Evaluation
8 Climate Models and Their Evaluation Coordinating Lead Authors: David A. Randall (USA), Richard A. Wood (UK) Lead Authors: Sandrine Bony (France), Robert Colman (Australia), Thierry Fichefet (Belgium), John Fyfe (Canada), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Andrew Pitman (Australia), Jagadish Shukla (USA), Jayaraman Srinivasan (India), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Karl E. Taylor (USA) Contributing Authors: K. AchutaRao (USA), R. Allan (UK), A. Berger (Belgium), H. Blatter (Switzerland), C. Bonfi ls (USA, France), A. Boone (France, USA), C. Bretherton (USA), A. Broccoli (USA), V. Brovkin (Germany, Russian Federation), W. Cai (Australia), M. Claussen (Germany), P. Dirmeyer (USA), C. Doutriaux (USA, France), H. Drange (Norway), J.-L. Dufresne (France), S. Emori (Japan), P. Forster (UK), A. Frei (USA), A. Ganopolski (Germany), P. Gent (USA), P. Gleckler (USA), H. Goosse (Belgium), R. Graham (UK), J.M. Gregory (UK), R. Gudgel (USA), A. Hall (USA), S. Hallegatte (USA, France), H. Hasumi (Japan), A. Henderson-Sellers (Switzerland), H. Hendon (Australia), K. Hodges (UK), M. Holland (USA), A.A.M. Holtslag (Netherlands), E. Hunke (USA), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), W. Ingram (UK), F. Joos (Switzerland), B. Kirtman (USA), S. Klein (USA), R. Koster (USA), P. Kushner (Canada), J. Lanzante (USA), M. Latif (Germany), N.-C. Lau (USA), M. Meinshausen (Germany), A. Monahan (Canada), J.M. Murphy (UK), T. Osborn (UK), T. Pavlova (Russian Federationi), V. Petoukhov (Germany), T. Phillips (USA), S. Power (Australia), S. Rahmstorf (Germany), S.C.B. Raper (UK), H. Renssen (Netherlands), D. Rind (USA), M. Roberts (UK), A. Rosati (USA), C. Schär (Switzerland), A. Schmittner (USA, Germany), J. Scinocca (Canada), D. Seidov (USA), A.G. -
Sam White the Real Little Ice Age Between C.1300 and C.1850 A.D
Journal of Interdisciplinary History, xliv:3 (Winter, 2014), 327–352. THE REAL LITTLE ICE AGE Sam White The Real Little Ice Age Between c.1300 and c.1850 a.d. the world became, on average, slightly but signiªcantly colder. The change varied over time and space, and its causes remain un- certain. Nevertheless, this cooling constitutes a meaningful climate event, with signiªcant historical consequences. Both the cooling trend and its effects on humans appear to have been particularly Downloaded from http://direct.mit.edu/jinh/article-pdf/44/3/327/1706251/jinh_a_00574.pdf by guest on 28 September 2021 acute from the late sixteenth to the late seventeenth century in much of the Northern Hemisphere. This article explains why climatologists and historians are conªdent that these changes occurred. On close examination, the objections raised in this issue of the journal by Kelly and Ó Gráda turn out to be entirely unfounded. The proxy data for early mod- ern global cooling (such as tree rings and ice cores) are robust, and written weather descriptions and observations of physical phenom- ena (such as glacial movements and river freezings) by and large of- fer independent conªrmation. Kelly and Ó Gráda’s proposed alter- native measures of climate and climate change suffer from serious ºaws. As we review the evidence and refute their criticisms, it will become clear just how solid the case for the Little Ice Age (lia) has become. the case for the little ice age The evidence for early modern global cooling comes, ªrst and foremost, from extensive research into physical proxies, including ice cores, tree rings, corals, and speleothems (stalagmites and stalactites). -
Substantial Vegetation Response to Early Jurassic Global Warming with Impacts on Oceanic Anoxia
ARTICLES https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0349-z Substantial vegetation response to Early Jurassic global warming with impacts on oceanic anoxia Sam M. Slater 1*, Richard J. Twitchett2, Silvia Danise3 and Vivi Vajda 1 Rapid global warming and oceanic oxygen deficiency during the Early Jurassic Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event at around 183 Ma is associated with a major turnover of marine biota linked to volcanic activity. The impact of the event on land-based eco- systems and the processes that led to oceanic anoxia remain poorly understood. Here we present analyses of spore–pollen assemblages from Pliensbachian–Toarcian rock samples that record marked changes on land during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. Vegetation shifted from a high-diversity mixture of conifers, seed ferns, wet-adapted ferns and lycophytes to a low-diversity assemblage dominated by cheirolepid conifers, cycads and Cerebropollenites-producers, which were able to sur- vive in warm, drought-like conditions. Despite the rapid recovery of floras after Toarcian global warming, the overall community composition remained notably different after the event. In shelf seas, eutrophication continued throughout the Toarcian event. This is reflected in the overwhelming dominance of algae, which contributed to reduced oxygen conditions and to a marked decline in dinoflagellates. The substantial initial vegetation response across the Pliensbachian/Toarcian boundary compared with the relatively minor marine response highlights that the impacts of the early stages of volcanogenic -
Short- and Long-Term Greenhouse Gas and Radiative Forcing Impacts of Changing Water Management in Asian Rice Paddies
Global Change Biology (2004) 10, 1180–1196, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00798.x Short- and long-term greenhouse gas and radiative forcing impacts of changing water management in Asian rice paddies STEVE FROLKING*,CHANGSHENGLI*, ROB BRASWELL* andJAN FUGLESTVEDTw *Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, & Space, 39 College Road, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA, wCICERO, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo, PO Box 1129, Blindern, 0318 Oslo, Norway Abstract Fertilized rice paddy soils emit methane while flooded, emit nitrous oxide during flooding and draining transitions, and can be a source or sink of carbon dioxide. Changing water management of rice paddies can affect net emissions of all three of these greenhouse gases. We used denitrification–decomposition (DNDC), a process-based biogeochemistry model, to evaluate the annual emissions of CH4,N2O, and CO2 for continuously flooded, single-, double-, and triple-cropped rice (three baseline scenarios), and in further simulations, the change in emissions with changing water management to midseason draining of the paddies, and to alternating crops of midseason drained rice and upland crops (two alternatives for each baseline scenario). We used a set of first- order atmospheric models to track the atmospheric burden of each gas over 500 years. We evaluated the dynamics of the radiative forcing due to the changes in emissions of CH4, N2O, and CO2 (alternative minus baseline), and compared these with standard calculations of CO2-equivalent emissions using global warming potentials (GWPs). All alternative scenarios had lower CH4 emissions and higher N2O emissions than their corresponding baseline cases, and all but one sequestered carbon in the soil more slowly. -
Reforestation in a High-CO2 World—Higher Mitigation Potential Than
Geophysical Research Letters RESEARCH LETTER Reforestation in a high-CO2 world—Higher mitigation 10.1002/2016GL068824 potential than expected, lower adaptation Key Points: potential than hoped for • We isolate effects of land use changes and fossil-fuel emissions in RCPs 1 1 1 1 •ClimateandCO2 feedbacks strongly Sebastian Sonntag , Julia Pongratz , Christian H. Reick , and Hauke Schmidt affect mitigation potential of reforestation 1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany • Adaptation to mean temperature changes is still needed, but extremes might be reduced Abstract We assess the potential and possible consequences for the global climate of a strong reforestation scenario for this century. We perform model experiments using the Max Planck Institute Supporting Information: Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), forced by fossil-fuel CO2 emissions according to the high-emission scenario • Supporting Information S1 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but using land use transitions according to RCP4.5, which assumes strong reforestation. Thereby, we isolate the land use change effects of the RCPs from those Correspondence to: of other anthropogenic forcings. We find that by 2100 atmospheric CO2 is reduced by 85 ppm in the S. Sonntag, reforestation model experiment compared to the reference RCP8.5 model experiment. This reduction is [email protected] higher than previous estimates and is due to increased forest cover in combination with climate and CO2 feedbacks. We find that reforestation leads to global annual mean temperatures being lower by 0.27 K in Citation: 2100. We find large annual mean warming reductions in sparsely populated areas, whereas reductions in Sonntag, S., J. -
Chapter 3. Modelling the Climate System
Introduction to climate dynamics and climate modelling - http://www.climate.be/textbook Chapter 3. Modelling the climate system 3.1 Introduction 3.1.1 What is a climate model ? In general terms, a climate model could be defined as a mathematical representation of the climate system based on physical, biological and chemical principles (Fig. 3.1). The equations derived from these laws are so complex that they must be solved numerically. As a consequence, climate models provide a solution which is discrete in space and time, meaning that the results obtained represent averages over regions, whose size depends on model resolution, and for specific times. For instance, some models provide only globally or zonally averaged values while others have a numerical grid whose spatial resolution could be less than 100 km. The time step could be between minutes and several years, depending on the process studied. Even for models with the highest resolution, the numerical grid is still much too coarse to represent small scale processes such as turbulence in the atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers, the interactions of the circulation with small scale topography features, thunderstorms, cloud micro-physics processes, etc. Furthermore, many processes are still not sufficiently well-known to include their detailed behaviour in models. As a consequence, parameterisations have to be designed, based on empirical evidence and/or on theoretical arguments, to account for the large-scale influence of these processes not included explicitly. Because these parameterisations reproduce only the first order effects and are usually not valid for all possible conditions, they are often a large source of considerable uncertainty in models. -
Causes of Sea Level Rise
FACT SHEET Causes of Sea OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AT RISK Level Rise What the Science Tells Us HIGHLIGHTS From the rocky shoreline of Maine to the busy trading port of New Orleans, from Roughly a third of the nation’s population historic Golden Gate Park in San Francisco to the golden sands of Miami Beach, lives in coastal counties. Several million our coasts are an integral part of American life. Where the sea meets land sit some of our most densely populated cities, most popular tourist destinations, bountiful of those live at elevations that could be fisheries, unique natural landscapes, strategic military bases, financial centers, and flooded by rising seas this century, scientific beaches and boardwalks where memories are created. Yet many of these iconic projections show. These cities and towns— places face a growing risk from sea level rise. home to tourist destinations, fisheries, Global sea level is rising—and at an accelerating rate—largely in response to natural landscapes, military bases, financial global warming. The global average rise has been about eight inches since the centers, and beaches and boardwalks— Industrial Revolution. However, many U.S. cities have seen much higher increases in sea level (NOAA 2012a; NOAA 2012b). Portions of the East and Gulf coasts face a growing risk from sea level rise. have faced some of the world’s fastest rates of sea level rise (NOAA 2012b). These trends have contributed to loss of life, billions of dollars in damage to coastal The choices we make today are critical property and infrastructure, massive taxpayer funding for recovery and rebuild- to protecting coastal communities. -
Global Environmental Issues and Its Remedies
International Journal of Sustainable Energy and Environment Vol. 1, No. 8, September 2013, PP: 120 - 126, ISSN: 2327- 0330 (Online) Available online at www.ijsee.com Research article Global Environmental Issues and its Remedies Dr. MD. Zulfequar Ahmad Khan* Address Present. Permanent Address for Correspondence *Dr. Md Zulfequar Ahmad Khan 21-B, Lane No 3, Associate Professor Jamia Nagar, Zakir Nagar, Department of Geography & Environmental Studies New Delhi-110025 Arba Minch University INDIA Arba Minch, Ethiopia. Mobile No.: +919718502867 Mobile No: +251 923934234 E-mail: [email protected] _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Abstract To the surprise of many out-spoken environmentalists, it, in fact, turns out mankind and technology actually aren’t the only significant causes of global environmental problems. However, before we start to get too comfortable and confidently assume that we as human beings are officially “off the hook,” the fact remains that several “man-made” causes play a significant role in our current, global problems trend. Many human actions affect what people value. One way in which the actions that cause global change are different from most of these is that the effects take decades to centuries to be realized. This fact causes many concerned people to consider taking action now to protect the values of those who might be affected by global environmental change in years to come. But because of uncertainty about how global environmental systems work, and because the people affected will probably live in circumstances very much different from those of today and may have different values, it is hard to know how present-day actions will affect them. -
The Use of Non-CO2 Multipliers for the Climate Impact of Aviation: the Scientific Basis
Workshop on Aviation and Carbon Markets ICAO Headquarters Montreal, Quebec 18-19 June 2008 The use of non-CO2 multipliers for the climate impact of aviation: The scientific basis by Dr. David W. Fahey Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA Introduction Outline Aviation and climate change radiative forcings The multiplier concept and limitations Conclusions & recommendations 1 Introduction Aviation contributes to climate change by increasing atmospheric radiative forcing through the emission of gases and aerosols and changing cloud abundance. Radiative forcing is a change in the balance of solar and terrestrial radiation in Earth’s atmosphere. IPCC, AR4 (2007) 2 1 Aviation and climate change Adapted from Wuebbles et al., 2007 3 Aviation and climate change CO2 Non-CO2 The non-CO2 multiplier is an effort to simplify the accounting of aviation climate forcing from effects other than CO2 accumulation. Adapted from Wuebbles et al., 2007 4 2 Global radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) * Cooling Warming Aviation represents 3% (range 2 - 8%) of anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2005 (includes all components except induced cloudiness) * 5 Adapted from IPCC, AR4 (2007) Global radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) Aviation RF components Aviation represents 3% (range 2 - 8%) of anthropogenic radiative forcing in 2005 *(includes all components except induced cloudiness) Adapted from IPCC, AR4 (2007) 6 3 Aviation radiative forcing components (1750 - 2005) Cooling Warming Aviation radiative forcing components have been quantified with best estimates except for induced cirrus cloudiness which includes aerosol cloud effects. Radiative forcing is a backward-looking metric that integrates over previous aircraft operations (i.e., 1750-2005) and hence is not a suitable metric for future aviation. -
Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use MARK A
PUBLIC INTEREST REPORT SUMMER 2011 Impacts of Biofuels on Climate Change, Water Use, and Land Use MARK A. DELUCCHI * INTRODUCTION Governments worldwide are promoting the and land use – because per unit of energy development of biofuels, such as ethanol from produced, biofuels require orders of magnitude corn, biodiesel from soybeans, and ethanol from more land and water than do petroleum wood or grass, in order to reduce dependency transportation fuels – and these impacts should on oil imported from politically unstable be weighed in an overall assessment of the costs regions of the world, spur agricultural and benefits of policies that promote biofuels. development, and reduce the climate impact of fossil fuel combustion. Biofuels have been At the start of each major section, I first discuss promoted as a way to mitigate the climate- the overall metric by which impacts typically are change impacts of energy use because the measured. is overall metric is important carbon in a biofuel comes from the atmosphere, because many analysts use it is a basis for which means that the combustion of a biofuel evaluating and comparing the impacts of biofuels; returns to the atmosphere the amount of hence, the overall metric should be as broad as carbon dioxide (CO2) that was removed by the possible yet still represent what society cares growth of the biomass feedstock. Because CO2 about. I argue that the absence of broad, from the combustion of fossil fuels, such as oil, meaningful metrics for climate-change, water-use, is one of the largest sources of anthropogenic and land-use impacts makes overall evaluations climate-active “greenhouse gases” (GHGs), it difficult.