Too Many Humans, Dwindling Resources, and Not Enough Space
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What Is the Most Effective Way to Reduce Population Growth And
Ariana Shapiro TST BOCES New Visions - Ithaca High School Ithaca, NY Kenya, Factor 17 Slowing Population Growth and Urbanization Through Education, Sustainable Agriculture, and Public Policy Initiatives in Kenya Kenya is a richly varied and unique country. From mountains and plains to lowlands and beaches, the diversity within the 224,961 square miles is remarkable. Nestled on the eastern coast of Africa, Kenya is bordered by Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Indian Ocean. Abundant wildlife and incredible biodiversity make Kenya a favorable tourist attraction, and tourism is the country’s best hard currency earner (BBC). However, tourism only provides jobs for a small segment of the population. 75 percent of Kenyans make their living through agriculture (mostly without using irrigation), on the 8.01 percent of land that is classified as arable (CIA World Factbook). As a result, agricultural activity is very concentrated in the fertile coastal regions and some areas of the highlands. Subsistence farmers grow beans, cassava, potatoes, maize, sorghum, and fruit, and some grow export crops such as tea, coffee, horticulture and pyrethrum (HDR). Overgrazing on the arid plateaus and loss of soil and tree cover in croplands has primed Kenya for recurring droughts followed by floods in the rainy seasons. The increasing environmental degradation has had a profound effect on the people of Kenya by forcing farmers onto smaller plots of land too close to other subsistence farms. Furthermore, inequitable patterns of land ownership and a burgeoning population have influenced many poor farmers to move into urban areas. The rapidity of urbanization has resulted in poorly planned cities that are home to large and unsafe slums. -
Statistical Analysis of Human Overpopulation and Its Impact on Sustainability
Statistical Analysis of Human Overpopulation and its Impact on Sustainability Susanne Bradley Abstract In this project, I examine the relationship between population size and resource use, with particular emphasis on carbon emissions. I use a combination of time series methods and regression analysis to obtain forecasts for global carbon emissions and energy use to the year 2060, taking into account population growth and economic development. In general, my predictions are consistent with predictions already made by different experts, though mine tend to be slightly more pessimistic. I end by addressing some potential ways to decrease population growth rates. 1 Introduction In the twentieth century, human population nearly quadrupled from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion. Over that same period of time, global carbon consumption increased by a factor of twelve [1]. Population growth has begun to slow, especially in developed countries, but global population is not expected to reach peak levels for at least thirty years [2][3]. In light of these trends, a natural question to ask is whether the Earth can support these kinds of increases in both population and per capita consumption. The population aspect of this is important because if we assume that available resources are finite, then a smaller population size may not solve the problem of overconsumption but it will slow demand for resources and give us more time to develop sustainable long-term solutions. Despite the intuitively clear relationship between population and resource consumption, the issue of overpopulation is one that has been largely ignored in scientific circles since the 1970s [4]. -
Historical Overfishing and the Recent Collapse of Coastal Ecosystems
E COLOGY T HROUGH T IME REVIEW Historical Overfishing and the Recent Collapse of Coastal Ecosystems Jeremy B. C. Jackson,1,2* Michael X. Kirby,3 Wolfgang H. Berger,1 Karen A. Bjorndal,4 Louis W. Botsford,5 Bruce J. Bourque,6 Roger H. Bradbury,7 Richard Cooke,2 Jon Erlandson,8 James A. Estes,9 Terence P. Hughes,10 Susan Kidwell,11 Carina B. Lange,1 Hunter S. Lenihan,12 John M. Pandolfi,13 Charles H. Peterson,12 Robert S. Steneck,14 Mia J. Tegner,1† Robert R. Warner15 Ecological extinction caused by overfishing precedes all other pervasive longer term cycles or shifts in oceanographic human disturbance to coastal ecosystems, including pollution, degrada- regimes and productivity (15–17). To help ad- tion of water quality, and anthropogenic climate change. Historical abun- dress this problem, we describe ecosystem dances of large consumer species were fantastically large in comparison structure predating modern ecological studies with recent observations. Paleoecological, archaeological, and historical using well-dated time series based on biological data show that time lags of decades to centuries occurred between the (18, 19), biogeochemical (20, 21), physical onset of overfishing and consequent changes in ecological communities, (22), and historical (23) proxies that are infor- because unfished species of similar trophic level assumed the ecological mative over a variety of spatial scales and bio- roles of overfished species until they too were overfished or died of geographic realms (24). Although proxies vary epidemic diseases related to overcrowding. Retrospective data not only in precision and clarity of the signals they mea- help to clarify underlying causes and rates of ecological change, but they sure, the use of multiple proxies that give the also demonstrate achievable goals for restoration and management of same ecological signal greatly increases confi- coastal ecosystems that could not even be contemplated based on the dence in results. -
Connecting Genetic Diversity and Threat Mapping to Set Conservation Priorities for Juglans Regia L
fevo-08-00171 June 19, 2020 Time: 17:54 # 1 ORIGINAL RESEARCH published: 23 June 2020 doi: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00171 Diversity Under Threat: Connecting Genetic Diversity and Threat Mapping to Set Conservation Priorities for Juglans regia L. Populations in Central Asia Hannes Gaisberger1,2*, Sylvain Legay3, Christelle Andre3,4, Judy Loo1, Rashid Azimov5, Sagynbek Aaliev6, Farhod Bobokalonov7, Nurullo Mukhsimov8, Chris Kettle1,9 and Barbara Vinceti1 1 Bioversity International, Rome, Italy, 2 Department of Geoinformatics, University of Salzburg, Salzburg, Austria, 3 Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Belvaux, Luxembourg, 4 New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Auckland, New Zealand, 5 Bioversity International, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 6 Kyrgyz National Agrarian University named after K. I. Skryabin, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 7 Institute of Horticulture and Vegetable Growing of Tajik Academy Edited by: of Agricultural Sciences, Dushanbe, Tajikistan, 8 Republican Scientific and Production Center of Ornamental Gardening David Jack Coates, and Forestry, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 9 Department of Environmental System Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions (DBCA), Australia Central Asia is an important center of diversity for common walnut (Juglans regia L.). Reviewed by: We characterized the genetic diversity of 21 wild and cultivated populations across Bilal Habib, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. A complete threat assessment was performed Wildlife Institute of India, -
The Anthropocene: Acknowledging the Extent of Global Resource Overshoot , and What We Must Do About It
Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future. The Anthropocene: Acknowledging the extent of global resource overshoot , and what we must do about it. Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future. Understanding the balance between human needs and environmental resources Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future. The Anthropocene Story 3 minute video Reflections on the Anthropocene Story “ … we must find a safe operating space for humanity” “... we must understand resource limits and size ourselves to operate within planetary boundaries” Reflections on the Anthropocene Story “…our creativity, energy, and industry offer hope” Empty words Cognitive and behavioral paradigm shifts would offer ‘guarded’ optimism for the future. A preview of this afternoon’s discussion: 1. Realistic meta-level picture of humanity’s relationship with the planet 2. Talk about that relationship and the conceptual meaning of sustainability 3. Discuss the need for ‘transformative’ change and one approach to achieving future sustainability The Problem Climate change is not the problem. Water shortages, overgrazing, erosion, desertification and the rapid extinction of species are not the problem. Deforestation, Deforestation, reduced cropland productivity, Deforestation, reduced cropland productivity, and the collapse of fisheries are not the problem. Each of these crises, though alarming, is a symptom of a single, over-riding issue. Humanity is simply demanding more than the earth can provide. Climate change Witnessing dysfunctional human behavior Deforestation Desertification Collapse of fisheries Rapid extinction of species Supply = 1 Earth Today’s reality: Global Resource Overshoot How do we know we are - living beyond our resource means? - exceeding global capacity? - experiencing resource overshoot? • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Released in 2005, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was a four-year global effort involving more than 1,300 experts that assessed the condition of and trends in the world’s ecosystems. -
Reading 23 Limits to Growth1 Overshoot
Reading 23 Limits to Growth1 Overshoot To overshoot means to go too far, to go be- cal, political, psychological, or other features of a yond limits accidentally—without intention. Peo- system. ple experience overshoots every day. When you The delays, too, arise in many ways. They may rise too quickly from a chair, you may momen- result from inattention, faulty data, delayed in- tarily lose your balance. If you turn on the hot formation, slow reflexes, a cumbersome or quar- water faucet too far in the shower, you may be relling bureaucracy, a false theory about how the scalded. On an icy road your car might slide past system responds, or from momentum that pre- a stop sign. At a party you may drink much more vents the system from being stopped quickly de- alcohol than your body can safely metabolize; in spite the best efforts to halt it. For example, de- the morning you will have a ferocious headache. lays may result when a driver does not realize how Construction companies periodically build more much his car’s braking traction has been reduced condominiums than are demanded, forcing them by ice on the road; the contractor uses current to sell units below cost and confront the possi- prices to make decisions about construction activ- bility of bankruptcy. Too many fishing boats are ity that will affect the market two or three years in often constructed. Then fishing fleets grow so the future; the fishing fleet owners base their deci- large that they catch far more than the sustainable sions on data about recent catch, not information harvest. -
An Exploration of Human Population Demographic Data
Tested Studies for Laboratory Teaching Proceedings of the Association for Biology Laboratory Education Vol. 32, 406–421, 2011 Behind the Numbers: An Exploration of Human Population Demographic Data Teresa C. Weglarz Department of Biological Sciences, University of Wisconsin – Fox Valley, 1478 Midway Rd, Menasha WI 54952 USA ([email protected]) Increasingly global population size has been a cause for alarm among scientists. Currently, global population size is 6.9 billion and estimates for 2050 range from 8-12 billion. It is estimated that the majority of population growth in the next 50 years will be in developing countries. This computer-based lab activity explores some of the social, economic, and political factors that influence population growth. Understanding the role of these factors in popula- tion growth is critical to the study of population demography. Population demographic data provides a glimpse into the population characteristics that are associated with rapid growth. The International Data Base provides popula- tion pyramids and demography data, on infant mortality rates, fertility rates, and life expectancy of populations in over 200 countries. This population demographic data provides a glimpse into the population characteristics that are associated with population growth and may provide clues on how to address population growth. Keywords: Population growth, demography, population pyramids Introduction Introduction Human demography is the study of population charac- tion data contains estimates and projections for more than teristics. The purpose of this computer investigation is to 200 countries, which includes population size, fertility, analyze the demographic relationships between different mortality and migration rates. The entire investigation can countries. -
Analysis of Habitat Fragmentation and Ecosystem Connectivity Within the Castle Parks, Alberta, Canada by Breanna Beaver Submit
Analysis of Habitat Fragmentation and Ecosystem Connectivity within The Castle Parks, Alberta, Canada by Breanna Beaver Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in the Environmental Science Program YOUNGSTOWN STATE UNIVERSITY December, 2017 Analysis of Habitat Fragmentation and Ecosystem Connectivity within The Castle Parks, Alberta, Canada Breanna Beaver I hereby release this thesis to the public. I understand that this thesis will be made available from the OhioLINK ETD Center and the Maag Library Circulation Desk for public access. I also authorize the University or other individuals to make copies of this thesis as needed for scholarly research. Signature: Breanna Beaver, Student Date Approvals: Dawna Cerney, Thesis Advisor Date Peter Kimosop, Committee Member Date Felicia Armstrong, Committee Member Date Clayton Whitesides, Committee Member Date Dr. Salvatore A. Sanders, Dean of Graduate Studies Date Abstract Habitat fragmentation is an important subject of research needed by park management planners, particularly for conservation management. The Castle Parks, in southwest Alberta, Canada, exhibit extensive habitat fragmentation from recreational and resource use activities. Umbrella and keystone species within The Castle Parks include grizzly bears, wolverines, cougars, and elk which are important animals used for conservation agendas to help protect the matrix of the ecosystem. This study identified and analyzed the nature of habitat fragmentation within The Castle Parks for these species, and has identified geographic areas of habitat fragmentation concern. This was accomplished using remote sensing, ArcGIS, and statistical analyses, to develop models of fragmentation for ecosystem cover type and Digital Elevation Models of slope, which acted as proxies for species habitat suitability. -
Understanding Predation
COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURAL, CONSUMER AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Understanding Predation Louis C. Bender1 aces.nmsu.edu/pubs • Cooperative Extension Service • Circular 688 The College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences is an engine for economic and community development in New Mexico, improving Figure 1. Predation is a frequently misunderstood ecological process, primarily because people empathize with the prey and confuse the act of predation with the effect of predation on populations of prey. While successful predation re- the lives of New sults in the death of individuals, those deaths may have little or no effect on the population as a whole. (Photo courtesy of L. Bender.) Mexicans through SUMMARY academic, research, Predation is a much misunderstood ecological process. Most people confuse the act of predation with the effect, believing that the killing of an individual and extension animal invariably results in a negative impact on the population (Figure 1). This view is frequently wrong, and ignores the complexity of predation at the individual, population, and community levels. At the individual level, programs. predisposition refers to characteristics (e.g., poor body condition, inadequate cover, disease, etc.) of individuals that make them more or less likely to die from predation or any other cause. Predisposition influences whether (or how likely it was that) an individual would have lived if not killed by a predator. The greater the degree of predisposition, the less likely the death of a pre- dated individual would have any effect on the population. Predisposition is necessary for predation to be compensatory, or substitutive, at the level of the population. -
An Essay on the Ecological and Socio-Economic Effects of the Current and Future Global Human Population Size
An essay on the ecological and socio-economic effects of the current and future global human population size “The global human population is and will probably remain too large to allow for a sustainable use of the earth’s resources and an acceptable distribution of welfare” MSc Thesis By Jasper A.J. Eikelboom Supervised by dr. M. van Kuijk and prof. ir. N.D. van Egmond Utrecht University 27-09-2013 Abstract Since the dawn of civilization the world population has grown very slowly, but since the Industrial Revolution in 1750 and especially the Green Revolution around 1950 the growth rate increased dramatically. At the moment there are 7 billion people and in 2100 it is expected that there will be between 8.5 and 12 billion people. Currently we already overshoot the earth’s carrying capacity and this problem will become even larger in the future. Because of the global overpopulation many negative ecological and socio-economic effects occur at the moment. Land-use change, climate change, biodiversity loss, risk of epidemics, poor welfare distribution, resource scarcity and subsequent indirect effects such as factory farming and armed struggles for resources are caused by overpopulation. All these effects are long-lasting and many are irreversible. The longer we overshoot the carrying capacity of the earth and the larger the human population becomes, the worse the effects will be. It can thus be concluded that the global human population is and will probably remain too large to allow for a sustainable use of the earth’s resources and an equal distribution of the use of these resources. -
Ecocide: the Missing Crime Against Peace'
35 690 Initiative paper from Representative Van Raan: 'Ecocide: The missing crime against peace' No. 2 INITIATIVE PAPER 'The rules of our world are laws, and they can be changed. Laws can restrict, or they can enable. What matters is what they serve. Many of the laws in our world serve property - they are based on ownership. But imagine a law that has a higher moral authority… a law that puts people and planet first. Imagine a law that starts from first do no harm, that stops this dangerous game and takes us to a place of safety….' Polly Higgins, 2015 'We need to change the rules.' Greta Thunberg, 2019 Table of contents Summary 1 1. Introduction 3 2. The ineffectiveness of current legislation 7 3. The legal framework for ecocide law 14 4. Case study: West Papua 20 5. Conclusion 25 6. Financial section 26 7. Decision points 26 Appendix: The institutional history of ecocide 29 Summary Despite all our efforts, the future of our natural environments, habitats, and ecosystems does not look promising. Human activity has ensured that climate change continues to persist. Legal instruments are available to combat this unprecedented damage to the natural living environment, but these instruments have proven inadequate. With this paper, the initiator intends to set forth an innovative new legal concept. This paper is a study into the possibilities of turning this unprecedented destruction of our natural environment into a criminal offence. In this regard, we will use the term ecocide, defined as the extensive damage to or destruction of ecosystems through human activity. -
Slow-Onset Processes and Resulting Loss and Damage
Publication Series ADDRESSING LOSS AND DAMAGE FROM SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES Slow-onset Processes and Resulting Loss and Damage – An introduction Table of contents L 4 22 ist of a bbre Summary of Loss and damage via tio key facts and due to slow-onset ns definitions processes AR4 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 6 22 What is loss and damage? Introduction AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report COP Conference of the Parties to the 23 United Nations Framework Convention on 9 What losses and damages IMPRINT Climate Change can result from slow-onset Slow-onset ENDA Environment Development Action Energy, processes? Authors Environment and Development Programme processes and their Laura Schäfer, Pia Jorks, Emmanuel Seck, Energy key characteristics 26 Oumou Koulibaly, Aliou Diouf ESL Extreme Sea Level What losses and damages Contributors GDP Gross Domestic Product 9 can result from sea level rise? Idy Niang, Bounama Dieye, Omar Sow, Vera GMSL Global mean sea level What is a slow-onset process? Künzel, Rixa Schwarz, Erin Roberts, Roxana 31 Baldrich, Nathalie Koffi Nguessan GMSLR Global mean sea level rise 10 IOM International Organization on Migration What are key characteristics Loss and damage Editing Adam Goulston – Scize Group LLC of slow-onset processes? in Senegal due to IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level rise Layout and graphics LECZ Low-elevation coastal zone 14 Karin Roth – Wissen in Worten OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs What are other relevant January 2021 terms for the terminology on 35 RCP Representative