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Home , Anthropocene, Overshoot (population)

, education, and policy guidance for a better global .

The : Acknowledging the extent of global resource , and what we must do about it.

Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future.

Understanding the balance between needs and environmental resources Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future.

The Anthropocene Story 3 minute video Reflections on the Anthropocene Story

“ … we must find a safe operating space for humanity”

“... we must understand resource limits and size ourselves to operate within ” Reflections on the Anthropocene Story

“…our creativity, energy, and industry offer hope” Empty words

Cognitive and behavioral paradigm shifts would offer ‘guarded’ optimism for the future. A preview of this afternoon’s discussion:

1. Realistic meta-level picture of humanity’s relationship with the planet

2. Talk about that relationship and the conceptual meaning of

3. Discuss the need for ‘transformative’ change and one approach to achieving future sustainability

The Problem is not the problem. Water shortages, , , and the rapid of species are not the problem. , Deforestation, reduced cropland productivity, Deforestation, reduced cropland productivity, and the collapse of fisheries are not the problem. Each of these crises, though alarming, is a symptom of a single, over-riding issue. Humanity is simply demanding more than the can provide. Climate change Witnessing dysfunctional human behavior

Deforestation Desertification Collapse of fisheries Rapid extinction of species Supply = 1 Earth

Today’s reality: Global Resource Overshoot How do we know we are

- living beyond our resource means? - exceeding global capacity? - experiencing resource overshoot?

• Millennium Assessment Released in 2005, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was a four- global effort involving more than 1,300 experts that assessed the condition of and trends in the world’s . The Assessment found that in the last half of the 20th century, changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of , primarily to meet growing needs for food, freshwater, timber, fiber, and fuel. What do we know about the status of the world’s ecosystem services? Degraded Mixed Enhanced

Provisioning Capture fisheries Timber Crops Wild foods Fiber Livestock fuel Aquaculture Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh water

Regulating Air quality regulation Water regulation Carbon sequestration Climate regulation Disease regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural hazard regulation

Cultural Spiritual values Recreation & ecotourism Aesthetic values Financial Indicators

• GDP = Gross Domestic Product • ISEW = Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare

• ISEW = GDP w/adjustments Degree of consumption inequality + Value of housework - Wasted expenditures (e.g. wars) - and environmental damage costs - Depletion of non-renewable resources

GDP $

ISEW

1950 1975 2000 2025 GDP $

ISEW

1950 1975 2000 2025 Quantifying Human Demand: Our ‘’

 A ’s eco-footprint (demand) is the area of land and water ecosystems (bio-capacity) required to produce the resources that the population consumes, and to assimilate the that the population produces, wherever on Earth the relevant land/water may be located.

Human Demand: Our Global ecological Footprint

Nature’s Supply: Global

Overshoot – Demand now outstrips supply. It takes more than 1.5 for the earth to regenerate the renewable resources humans consume in a year. global biocapacity:

12.0 billion hectares

ffads The Big Picture Big The

current human eco-footprint: 19.0 billion hectares

Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 (Capacity = 100%)

#

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Time Unsustainable

Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 Possibly Sustainable (Capacity = 100%) # Earths

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Time Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 Capacity allocation for bio-diversity (Capacity = 100%) # Earths

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Time The World has Fundamentally Changed

Historical “Empty World” “Overshoot” World

Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 (Capacity = 100%)

# Earths

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Time The World has Fundamentally Changed

Historical “Empty World” “Overshoot” World

# Earths

1.0 (Capacity = 100%)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Time The World has Fundamentally Changed

Historical “Empty World” “Overshoot” World

Limitations Man-made Capital Natural Capital Labor Policy Implications Maximize production Invest in capital goods Invest in natural capital “Economic stimulus” plans To end poverty (In a production constrained world): Stabilize and reduce population!

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Time Our Global Ecological Deficit

human population (2013): 7.1 billion

average eco- footprint/person: 2.7 gha

biocapacity per person: 1.7 gha

overshoot (EF – biocapacity) 1.0 gha

58% overshoot global biocapacity:

12.0 billion hectares

ffads The Big The Picture

current human eco-footprint: 19.0 billion hectares

Missing: Four Phantom Planets

If everyone on Earth lived the consumer lifestyles of North Americans, we’d need three or four additional Earth-like planets.

Problem: “Good planets are hard to find.” • Humanity is already consuming resources at an unsustainable rate.

• We are already exceeding planetary boundaries.

• We are putting earth systems and human civilization at risk. “…the continued functioning of the Earth system as it has supported the well-being of human civilization in recent centuries is at risk. Without urgent action, we could face threats to water, food, , and other critical resources: these threats risk intensifying economic, ecological, and social crisis, creating the potential for a humanitarian emergency on a global scale.” “[We are] burning through [global] resources in the name of prosperity, as if there is no tomorrow”

Ban Ki-Moon (4/20/12) What is sustainability? Sustainability conceptually describes an economy and full set of societal endeavors, the demands of which are in equilibrium with basic ecological and resource support systems Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

What is sustainability?

Despite the confusion, ‘sustainability’ is not a difficult concept  Sustainability simply means that the human family must live more equitably within the productive means of .  Humans cannot consume essential renewable resources faster than Nature replenishes them nor generate material wastes faster than nature can assimilate and recycle them.  No society is sustainable if it maintains itself or grows by depleting its income-producing wealth or ‘capital’.

It follows that:  The world community must learn to live on the annual income generated by both its manufactured capital and natural capital. Economic Implications

 A sustainable economy thrives on the annual income of its capital assets: finance capital, manufactured capital natural capital.  At ‘’ a sustainable economy is a non- growing or steady-state economy.  A steady-state economy is characterized by a constant or modestly fluctuating through-put of energy and material resources (‘natural income’) that leaves its capital intact.  A steady-state economy is not a stagnant economy. It does not grow but can develop dynamically. Society steadily improves as evolve, new industries replace old, and human well-being increases. What’s to fear? What’s not to like?? Resource overshoot

Possible Solutions

“Our collective challenge: Scaling down the human endeavor”

e = < e RI D P AC T = R Cap

Resource demands must be less than or equal to capacity

Possible Solutions

< e P C T = R Cap

Can we stabilize and reduce human population numbers?

Global Population (Billions) 30.00

25.00

20.00

15.00 Constant Fertility

10.00

5.00

0.00 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 Global Population – What will it really look like later this century ?

Median

9.3 B by 2050 Number of People (millions) People of Number Global Population (Billions)

30.00

25.00

20.00

Constant fertility

15.00

Median Variant 10.00 Assumptions

5.00

0.00 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Global Population – What will it really look like later this century ?

Constant Fertility

+0.5 TFR

Median

-0.5 TFR Number of People (millions) People of Number is not destiny

Empowering women and expanding access to information and services must be part of the global discourse and solution.

Possible Solutions

< e P C T = R Cap

Can we lower our consumption of material goods and services?

Reducing consumption

Who will be giving up their “goodies?”

In fact the world is going in the other direction (e.g. cars in China)!

Possible Solutions

e = < e R D P C T = R Cap

Can we ‘decouple’ our economy from the demands

we place on natural capital?

Will ‘greening’ our global economy lead to a sustainable world?

Mr. T Technology advancement is not the answer to the sustainability challenge.

It is necessary, but not sufficient! Greening the economy is not the answer to the sustainability challenge.

It is necessary, but not sufficient! Resource efficiency improvement is not the answer to the sustainability challenge.

It is necessary, but not sufficient! Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE) Greening the economy is necessary, but not sufficient.

In the Jevons paradox is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource. Jevons observed that technological improvements that increased the efficiency of coal use led to increased consumption of coal in a wide range of industries. He argued that, contrary to intuition, technological William Stanley Jevons improvements could not be relied upon to 1865 – English Economist reduce fuel consumption.

Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

Greening the economy is necessary, but not sufficient.

While green technologies may help to de-link resource extraction from economic growth, they will not ensure progress towards sustainability. Complete mitigation of the global warming and climate disruption crisis

Sustainability Achieving

Sustainability Solutions 1. Change the political mandate from economic growth to shared economic development within planetary limits. Our challenge, should we choose to accept it: Write a new, more adaptive cultural narrative

 Sustainable material growth is an oxymoron.

 The economic policy emphasis must shift from efficiency and growth (merely getting bigger) toward sufficiency, equity and development (qualitative improvement, getting better).

 The underpinning values of society must shift from competitive individualism, greed, and short- term self-interest, toward cooperative mutualism, community, and humanity’s long-term collective interest in survival. Motivation and Rationale? It’s in everyone’s long-term best interest

 Individual and national interests have converged with humanity’s common interests. That is;  Sustainability is a collective problem that demands collective solutions (no country can become sustainable on its own);  Failure to act for the common good will ultimately lead to civil insurrection, geopolitical chaos, resource wars and ecological destruction. Cognitive Steps Forward

 Recognize that on a biophysically-constrained planet, everything is connected to everything else: economic policy is ecological policy is social policy.  Re-legitimize public planning at all levels of governance. We need comprehensive mitigation and adaptation strategies for (markets alone can’t achieve sustainability).  Abandon the cult of consumerism. The material ethic is spiritually empty and ecologically disastrous. Cultivate saving and conserver values over shopping and consumer values.

Solutions 1. Change the political mandate from economic growth to shared economic development within planetary limits.

2. Increase media attention to population and sustainability issues. Solutions 1. Change the political mandate from economic growth to shared economic development within planetary limits.

2. Increase media attention to population and sustainability issues and serial dramas for behavioral change.

3. Incorporate resource sufficiency evaluation (RSE) and reporting into national and global governance. The Global Challenge

“How do we promote dynamic and inclusive economic and human development

while achieving more equitable and of resources”

…UN System Task Team on the Post-2015 Development agenda The Global Challenge

“How do we promote dynamic and inclusive economic and human development Balance the resources we demand with what’s available! while achieving more equitable and sustainable management of resources”

…UN System Task Team on the Post-2015 Development agenda The open system of human development and well-being

Economic Activity Social Structure

The finite system of planetary natural resources

Earth (A closed system) Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

What does RSE look like? Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

What does RSE look like?

Bio-physical (not economic) ‘balance sheets’ Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

What does RSE look like?

Bio-physical ‘balance sheet’ accounting - Germany

Resource Societal National Surplus Sustainability Measurement Category Demand Capacity (Deficit) Rating Units

Billion cubic Fresh Water 30 110 80 Sustainable meters

1000KT Oil Energy 330 130 (200) Unsustainable Equivalent

Million global Bio-capacity 420 160 (260) Unsustainable hectares Sustainability Assessment Measuring what we want to achieve

Human Activities Earth Resources

Resource EF Accounting Resource Accounting I/O Analysis Accounting Methodology Methodology Energy Balances

Biophysical Resource Biophysical Biophysical Resource Demands Balance Capacity

Policy Options: Macro-economics Nat’l Population Policy Consumption policies Policy Direction Material Recycle Technology Transitions Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

Benefits • Directly measures a critical sustainability criteria • Measures what we need to manage in today’s world and provides a clear understanding of sustainable resource use Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

Benefits • Directly measures a critical sustainability criteria • Measures what we need to manage in today’s world and provides a clear understanding of sustainable resource use • Provides a prescriptive solution to the north-south political divide by asking all countries – both developed and developing – to evaluate, report, and make progress toward bio-physical balance • Protects inter-generational equity Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

Benefits • Directly measures a critical sustainability criteria • Measures what we need to manage in today’s world and provides a clear understanding of sustainable resource use • Provides a prescriptive solution to the north-south political divide by asking all countries – both developed and developing – to evaluate, report, and make progress toward bio-physical balance • Protects inter-generational equity • Builds public awareness of our universal challenge of resource system overuse • Puts sustainability into the political discourse Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE)

Our road map to a sustainable future.

Thank you

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We’d appreciate your questions and comments.