Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future. The Anthropocene: Acknowledging the extent of global resource overshoot , and what we must do about it. Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future. Understanding the balance between human needs and environmental resources Research, education, and policy guidance for a better global future. The Anthropocene Story 3 minute video Reflections on the Anthropocene Story “ … we must find a safe operating space for humanity” “... we must understand resource limits and size ourselves to operate within planetary boundaries” Reflections on the Anthropocene Story “…our creativity, energy, and industry offer hope” Empty words Cognitive and behavioral paradigm shifts would offer ‘guarded’ optimism for the future. A preview of this afternoon’s discussion: 1. Realistic meta-level picture of humanity’s relationship with the planet 2. Talk about that relationship and the conceptual meaning of sustainability 3. Discuss the need for ‘transformative’ change and one approach to achieving future sustainability The Problem Climate change is not the problem. Water shortages, overgrazing, erosion, desertification and the rapid extinction of species are not the problem. Deforestation, Deforestation, reduced cropland productivity, Deforestation, reduced cropland productivity, and the collapse of fisheries are not the problem. Each of these crises, though alarming, is a symptom of a single, over-riding issue. Humanity is simply demanding more than the earth can provide. Climate change Witnessing dysfunctional human behavior Deforestation Desertification Collapse of fisheries Rapid extinction of species Supply = 1 Earth Today’s reality: Global Resource Overshoot How do we know we are - living beyond our resource means? - exceeding global capacity? - experiencing resource overshoot? • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Released in 2005, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was a four-year global effort involving more than 1,300 experts that assessed the condition of and trends in the world’s ecosystems. The Assessment found that in the last half of the 20th century, humans changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable period of history, primarily to meet growing needs for food, freshwater, timber, fiber, and fuel. What do we know about the status of the world’s ecosystem services? Degraded Mixed Enhanced Provisioning Capture fisheries Timber Crops Wild foods Fiber Livestock Biomass fuel Aquaculture Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh water Regulating Air quality regulation Water regulation Carbon sequestration Climate regulation Disease regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination Natural hazard regulation Cultural Spiritual values Recreation & ecotourism Aesthetic values Financial Indicators • GDP = Gross Domestic Product • ISEW = Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare • ISEW = GDP w/adjustments Degree of consumption inequality + Value of housework - Wasted expenditures (e.g. wars) - Pollution and environmental damage costs - Depletion of non-renewable resources GDP $ ISEW 1950 1975 2000 2025 GDP $ ISEW 1950 1975 2000 2025 Quantifying Human Demand: Our ‘Ecological Footprint’ A population’s eco-footprint (demand) is the area of land and water ecosystems (bio-capacity) required to produce the resources that the population consumes, and to assimilate the wastes that the population produces, wherever on Earth the relevant land/water may be located. Human Demand: Our Global ecological Footprint Nature’s Supply: Global Biocapacity Overshoot – Demand now outstrips supply. It takes more than 1.5 years for the earth to regenerate the renewable resources humans consume in a year. global biocapacity: 12.0 billion hectares ffads The Big Picture current human eco-footprint: 19.0 billion hectares Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 (Capacity = 100%) # Earths 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time Unsustainable Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 Possibly Sustainable (Capacity = 100%) # Earths 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 Capacity allocation for bio-diversity (Capacity = 100%) # Earths 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time The World has Fundamentally Changed Historical “Empty World” “Overshoot” World Ecological Footprint gha One Earth 1.0 (Capacity = 100%) # Earths 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time The World has Fundamentally Changed Historical “Empty World” “Overshoot” World # Earths 1.0 (Capacity = 100%) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time The World has Fundamentally Changed Historical “Empty World” “Overshoot” World Limitations Man-made Capital Natural Capital Labor Policy Implications Maximize production Invest in capital goods Invest in natural capital “Economic stimulus” plans To end poverty (In a production constrained world): Stabilize and reduce population! 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time Our Global Ecological Deficit human population (2013): 7.1 billion average eco- footprint/person: 2.7 gha biocapacity per person: 1.7 gha overshoot (EF – biocapacity) 1.0 gha 58% overshoot global biocapacity: 12.0 billion hectares ffads The Big Picture current human eco-footprint: 19.0 billion hectares Missing: Four Phantom Planets If everyone on Earth lived the consumer lifestyles of North Americans, we’d need three or four additional Earth-like planets. Problem: “Good planets are hard to find.” • Humanity is already consuming resources at an unsustainable rate. • We are already exceeding planetary boundaries. • We are putting earth systems and human civilization at risk. “…the continued functioning of the Earth system as it has supported the well-being of human civilization in recent centuries is at risk. Without urgent action, we could face threats to water, food, biodiversity, and other critical resources: these threats risk intensifying economic, ecological, and social crisis, creating the potential for a humanitarian emergency on a global scale.” “[We are] burning through [global] resources in the name of prosperity, as if there is no tomorrow” Ban Ki-Moon (4/20/12) What is sustainability? Sustainability conceptually describes an economy and full set of societal endeavors, the demands of which are in equilibrium with basic ecological and resource support systems Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE) What is sustainability? Despite the confusion, ‘sustainability’ is not a difficult concept Sustainability simply means that the human family must live more equitably within the productive means of nature. Humans cannot consume essential renewable resources faster than Nature replenishes them nor generate material wastes faster than nature can assimilate and recycle them. No society is sustainable if it maintains itself or grows by depleting its income-producing wealth or ‘capital’. It follows that: The world community must learn to live on the annual income generated by both its manufactured capital and natural capital. Economic Implications A sustainable economy thrives on the annual income of its capital assets: finance capital, manufactured capital natural capital. At ‘carrying capacity’ a sustainable economy is a non- growing or steady-state economy. A steady-state economy is characterized by a constant or modestly fluctuating through-put of energy and material resources (‘natural income’) that leaves its capital intact. A steady-state economy is not a stagnant economy. It does not grow but can develop dynamically. Society steadily improves as technologies evolve, new industries replace old, and human well-being increases. What’s to fear? What’s not to like?? Resource overshoot Possible Solutions “Our collective challenge: Scaling down the human endeavor” e = < e RI D P AC T = R Cap Resource demands must be less than or equal to capacity Possible Solutions < e P C T = R Cap Can we stabilize and reduce human population numbers? Global Population (Billions) 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 Constant Fertility 10.00 5.00 0.00 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 Global Population – What will it really look like later this century ? Median 9.3 B by 2050 Number of People (millions) of People Number Global Population (Billions) 30.00 25.00 20.00 Constant fertility 15.00 Median Variant 10.00 Assumptions 5.00 0.00 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 Global Population – What will it really look like later this century ? Constant Fertility +0.5 TFR Median -0.5 TFR Number of People (millions) of People Number Population growth is not destiny Empowering women and expanding access to family planning information and services must be part of the global sustainable development discourse and solution. Possible Solutions < e P C T = R Cap Can we lower our consumption of material goods and services? Reducing consumption Who will be giving up their “goodies?” In fact the world is going in the other direction (e.g. cars in China)! Possible Solutions e = < e R D P C T = R Cap Can we ‘decouple’ our economy from the demands we place on natural capital? Will ‘greening’ our global economy lead to a sustainable world? Technology Mr. T Technology advancement is not the answer to the sustainability challenge. It is necessary, but not sufficient! Greening the economy is not the answer to the sustainability challenge. It is necessary, but not sufficient! Resource efficiency improvement is not the answer to the sustainability challenge. It is necessary, but not sufficient! Resource Sufficiency Evaluation (RSE) Greening the economy is necessary, but not sufficient. In economics