WORKING PAPER DIPARTIMENTO DI ECONOMIA PUBBLICA Working Paper n. 141 Silvia Fedeli e Francesco Forte A survival analysis of the circulation of the political elites governing Italy from 1861 to 1994 Roma, Aprile 2011 1 Silvia Fedeli and Francesco Forte A survival analysis of the circulation of the political elites governing Italy from 1861 to 1994 Abstract We study the determinants of governments and legislatures’ survival in Italy from the unification to the end of the I Republic (1861-1994) - excluding the fascist period and the subsequent transitory institutional period, "Constituente" (1946-1948). We test whether institutional features such as electoral systems, form of State and extent of suffrage had any effect on the survival of legislatures and governments. We control for voting power of the parliamentary groups, number of parties represented in the parliament and size of the representative bodies. Unlike the political economy wisdom, we show that, over the whole period, governments and legislatures’ survivals are inversely related to the plurality electoral system. The restricted suffrage and a high voting power of the leading parties reduce the risk of anticipated end of governments. The survival of the legislatures is related to the form of state (republic) and to the voting power of the leading party. Universita’ di Roma “La Sapienza” Facolta’ di Economia Dipartimento di Economia e diritto Via del Castro Laurenziano, 9 00161 Roma – Italy E-mail:
[email protected] [email protected] Tel. and Fax +39 06 4976 6399 Keywords: Elites; Survival analysis; Electoral systems; Voting power, Political institutions. 2 1. Introduction In this paper we analyze the “struggle for survival” of governments and legislatures of the Italian democratic parliaments, from the creation of the Italian state (1861) up to 1994, with the exclusion of the fascist period (i.e., the legislatures from 1924 to 1945 in which the democratic institutions were absent and of the subsequent transitory institutional period, known as "Constituente", lasting until 1948).