Ties That Bind: Quantifying China’s public diplomacy and its “good neighbor” effect Samantha Custer, Brooke Russell, Matthew DiLorenzo, Mengfan Cheng, Siddhartha Ghose, Harsh Desai, Jacob Sims, and Jennifer Turner June 2018 AAIDDATA Research Lab at William & Mary [Intentionally left blank] Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Samantha Custer, Brooke Russell, Matthew DiLorenzo, Mengfan Cheng, Siddhartha Ghose, Harsh Desai, Jacob Sims, and Jennifer Turner (AidData, William & Mary). The findings and conclusions of this report are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of the funders, partners, and advisors we thank below. The broader study was conducted in collaboration with Brad Parks (AidData, William & Mary), Debra Eisenman, Lindsey Ford, and Trisha Ray (Asia Society Policy Institute), and Bonnie Glaser (Center for Strategic and International Studies) who provided invaluable guidance throughout the entire process of research design, data collection, analysis, and report drafting. John Custer and Borah Kim (AidData, William & Mary) were integral to the editing, formatting, layout and visuals for this report. The authors thank the following external scholars and experts for their insightful feedback on the research design and early versions of our taxonomy of public diplomacy, including: Nicholas Cull (University of Southern California), Andreas Fuchs (Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg and the Kiel Institute for World Economy), John L. Holden (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), John Holden (Demos), Markos Kounalakis (Washington Monthly), Shawn Powers (United States Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy), Ambassador William Rugh (Tufts University), Austin Strange (Harvard University), and Jian (Jay) Wang, (University of Southern California). We owe a debt of gratitude to the 76 government officials, civil society and private sector leaders, academics, journalists, and foreign diplomats who graciously participated in key informant interviews and answered our questions on the state of Chinese public diplomacy in the Philippines, Malaysia, and Fiji. Their insights offer a unique perspective on the constraints and opportunities for China to convert its public diplomacy overtures into enhanced influence with foreign leaders and publics. We greatly appreciate the time and attention of our peer reviewers who helped us refine our thinking and prose for this final report, including: Jay Batongbacal (Institute for Maritime Affairs and the Law of the Sea), Falk Hartig (Goethe-University Frankfurt), Daniel Russel (Asia Society Policy Institute), Graeme Smith (Australian National University), Michael Swaine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Michael Tierney (William & Mary), and Alex Wooley (AidData, William & Mary). This research study was conducted with generous support from the United States Department of State and in partnership with the Asia Society Policy Institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Citation: Custer, S., Russell, B., DiLorenzo, M., Cheng, M., Ghose, S., Sims, J., Turner, J., and H. Desai. (2018). Ties That Bind: Quantifying China’s public diplomacy and its “good neighbor“effect. Williamsburg, VA. AidData at William & Mary. Links to Technical Appendices To access the technical appendices for this report, please refer to the electronic version which can be found online at: www.aiddata.org/publications/ties-that-bind i Contents 1 Introduction: Quantifying China’s public diplomacy and its “good neighbor” effect............ 1 1.1 How do we define China’s public diplomacy? ........................................................................................................2 1.2 How might China’s public diplomacy advance its foreign policy interests? ............................................................3 1.3 How do we quantify the inputs and outcomes of China’s public diplomacy efforts? .............................................4 2 How should we quantify China’s public diplomacy overtures? .............................................7 2.1 What instruments are included in China’s public diplomacy toolkit? ......................................................................7 2.2 Which public diplomacy instruments does China favor and with whom? .............................................................17 2.3 Concluding thoughts ............................................................................................................................................20 3 How do other countries perceive China’s public diplomacy efforts and its influence? ........23 3.1 The Great Race: China’s golden opportunity to consolidate gains in the Philippines ..........................................24 3.2 Shifting Sands: China’s warm welcome in Malaysia may be in for an upset .........................................................28 3.3 Deliberately Pro-China: Fiji positions Beijing as an “irresistible force” in the South Pacific .................................33 3.4 Concluding thoughts ............................................................................................................................................36 4 How effective is China’s public diplomacy with other countries? ........................................40 4.1 What motivates how China wields its public diplomacy tools with other countries? ...........................................40 4.2 Why do some people and countries perceive China more favorably than others? ..............................................44 4.3 How well does China convert its public diplomacy overtures into foreign policy returns? ..................................49 4.4 Concluding thoughts ............................................................................................................................................50 5 What does the future hold for China’s public diplomacy? ..................................................53 5.1 What have we learned about Chinese public diplomacy overtures in the EAP? ..................................................53 5.2 What is still unknown or uncertain about China’s public diplomacy in the EAP region? ......................................54 5.3 What are the implications of Beijing’s increasing public diplomacy for the EAP region? .....................................55 Figures Figure 1 How Chinese Public Diplomacy Advances its Foreign Policy Interests — A Theory of Change .............................5 Figure 2 China’s Cultural Diplomacy Tools By the Numbers ...............................................................................................10 Figure 3 China’s Exchange Diplomacy By the Numbers .....................................................................................................11 Figure 4 International Students in China .............................................................................................................................13 Figure 5 China’s Financial Diplomacy By the Numbers .......................................................................................................15 Figure 6 China’s Elite-to-Elite Diplomacy By the Numbers .................................................................................................16 Figure 7 Public Diplomacy Portfolio Composition in EAP................................................................................................... 17 Figure 8 China’s Public Diplomacy Footprint in the EAP Region ........................................................................................21 Figure 9 Visual Representation of Statistical Model Outputs — Drivers of Chinese Public Diplomacy ..............................43 Figure 10 Visual Representation of Statistical Model Outputs — Effects of Diplomacy on Perceptions of China ................47 Boxes Box 1 Chinese Informational Diplomacy — A Deep Dive into Xinhua News Agency’s Going Out Strategy ....................8 Box 2 Chinese Cultural Diplomacy — A Deep Dive into China’s Confucius Institutes ......................................................9 Box 3 Quantifying the Tools of Chinese Public Diplomacy .............................................................................................18 Box 4 At a Glance — Country Case Study Methodology ..............................................................................................24 Box 5 Using the AsiaBarometer to Measure Public Perceptions of China’s Favorability — Process and Limitations ......46 Tables Table 1 Five Categories of Chinese Public Diplomacy Activities .........................................................................................3 Table 2 Proxy Measures for Quantitative Analysis of Chinese Public Diplomacy ..............................................................17 Table 3 Analyzing the Determinants of China’s Public Diplomacy Allocations .................................................................42 Table 4 Analyzing Public Perceptions of Favorability and China’s Public Diplomacy ........................................................44 Table 5 Analyzing EAP Country UNGA Voting Patterns and China’s Public Diplomacy ....................................................49 ii Acronyms 1MDB 1Malaysia Development Berhad AIIB Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank APEC Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASPI Asia Society Policy Institute BRI Belt and Road Initiative (also known as One Belt, One Road) CCP Chinese Communist Party CCTV China Central Television