Protecting Our Planet Securing O U R Fut U Re

Home , Overexploitation, Ozone depletion

Protecting Our Planet Securing Ou r Futu re 20757 November1998

United Nations Environment ProgramnmeFiECP U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Admninistration The World Bank

ProtectingOur Planet SecuringOur Future

LINKAGESAMONG GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUESAND HUMANNEEDS

Robert T. Watson John A. Dixon Steven P. Hamburg Anthony C. Janetos Richard H. Moss

November 1998

United Nations Environment Programme U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration The World Bank

Authors and Contributors

Alex Alusa UNEP Kenya Gunilla Bjorklund GeWa Consulting Sweden Gretchen C. Daily Stanford University USA Till Darnhofer UNEP Austria Ogunlade Davidson University of SierraLeone Sierra Leone Rodolfo Dirzo UNAM Mexico John Dixon The World Bank USA Ed G6mez University of the Philippines Philippines Steven Hamburg Brown University USA Anthony Janetos NASA USA CalestousJuma Convention on Biological Diversity Kenya Rhoda Krantz EcologicalSociety of America USA Hoesung Lee KoreaEnergy EconomicsInstitute Korea Thomas Lovejoy The World Bank USA Jane Lubchenco Oregon State University USA Kathy Mackinnon The World Bank UK Anthony McMichael School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine UK Jeff McNeely IUCN USA Jerry Melillo EcosystemResearch Center USA Harold Mooney Stanford University USA Richard Moss Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory USA Mohan Munasinghe The World Bank Sri Lanka Nebojsa Nakicenovic IIASA Austria Ian Noble Australian National University Australia Richard Odingo University of Nairobi Kenya Atiq Rahman BangladeshCentre for Advanced Studies Bangladesh Kilaparti Ramakrishna The Woods Hole ResearchCentre India Walter Reid World ResourcesInstitute USA Manuel Rodriguez-Becerra IntergovernmentalPanel on Forestry Colombia Osvaldo Sala University of Buenos Aires Argentina Setijati D. Sastrapadja Centre for Biotechnology Indonesia PeterSchei Directoratefor Nature Management Norway Malena Sell Brown University Finland LauraVan Wie McGrory IPCC USA Pier Vellinga Free University The Netherlands RobertWatson The World Bank USA HamdallahZedan UNEP Egypt

TECHNICAL EDITORS COVER/BOOK DESIGN, COPY EDITOR LauraVan Wie McGrory DESKTOP PUBLISHER Alison Raphael Michael Keating Jim Cantrell

iii

Contents

AUTHORS AND CONTRIBUTORS ;;; FOREWORD ix PREFACE xiii EXECUTIVESUMMARY xv

PART I - INTRODUCTION 1 The Challenge of Meeting Human Needs 1 SustainableDevelopment Dependson a Healthy Environment 2 The Rateof Change is Growing 3 Driving Forcesof Environmental Change 4 Recognizingthe Threat 6

PART 11- GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTALISSUES 11 Stateof Scientific Knowledge of Global Environmental Changes 11 Climate change 11 Stratosphericozone depletion 15 Lossof biological diversity 16 Deforestationand unsustainableuse of forests 18 Desertificationand land degradation 19 Freshwaterdegradation 19 Marine environmentand resourcedegradation 21 Persistentorganic pollutants 22 LinkagesAmong the Environmental Issues 23 Climate change,loss of biological diversity,and forestry 23 Climate changeand water resources 27 Biodiversity,forest loss, and water resources 28 Desertificationand its links to other global issues 29 Stratosphericozone depletion,climate change,and biodiversity 29

PARTIII - MEETINGHUMAN NEEDSWITHIN THE ENVIRONMENTALENVELOPE 31 Meeting the Demand for Food 31 Effectsof agriculturalproduction on the global environment 32 Effectsof global environmentalissues on food production 33

v ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits 34 Meeting Demands for Fiber and Wood 36 Effectsof fiber and wood production on global environmentalissues 36 Effectsof global environmentalissues on fiber and wood production 37 Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits 37 Meeting Demands for Water 38 Effectsof meeting water needson environmentalissues 39 Effectsof global environmentalissues on water 39 Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits 40 Meeting Demands for Energy, Industrial Goods, and Employment 41 Providingenergy, goods, and employment-Effectson global environmentalissues 41 Effectsof global environmentalissues on energyuse and supply, the production of goods,and employment 42 Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits 42 Health and Securityof Populations 48 Health 48 National Security 50

PART IV - POLICIESFOR LINKING HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTALNEEDS 53 New Approaches to Policymaking 56 Command and Control 59 Market-BasedInterventions 61 Eliminatingharmful subsidies 62 Targetedsubsidies 64 Taxesand pollution charges 65 Tradablequotas and permits 66 Voluntary Agreementsand Public Involvement 67 Product information,eco-labeling, and information disclosure 68 Voluntaryagreements 68 Research,Development, and Demonstration 69 Improving National and International Policy Coordination 69 National Policy Coordination 70 InternationalPolicy Coordination 70 The Lessonsof Effective Policymaking and Implementation 71 Ensuringadministrative sustainability 71 Achieving financial sustainability 72 Building constituenciesfor change 73 Achieving policy integration 73

PART V - THE IMPORTANCEOF TIMING 75 APPENDICES 1 The Major Challengesfor Development 79 2 A Synopsisof EightMajor Global EnvironmentalIssues 81 3 InternationalScientific Assessments of Major Global EnvironmentalIssues 89 4 International Conventions on Global EnvironmentalIssues 91 vi Contents

5 InternationalAgreements on Global ForestIssues 93 6 SelectedReadings 95

BOXES A Underlyingreasons for environmentaldegradation 3 B Evolutionof majorinternational global environmental conferences and agreements 6 C Majorcomponents of the Earthsystem 12 D Internationalscientific assessments 23 E Guidancefor "win-win" projects-Landmanagement 35 F Strategiesfor reducinggreenhouse gas emissions 43 G Guidancefor 'win-win" projects-Biomassfor energy 45 H Guidancefor "win-win" projects-Industrialecology 47 I Enablingconditions for effectivepolicy change 57 J Policy instrumentsfor improvedenvironmental management-Command and control 59 K A mixedapproach-The use of standardsand feesto controlpalm-oil industry effluent in Malaysia 60 L Quotasand chargesfor managingirrigation water use in Israel 60 M Policyinstruments for improvedenvironmental management-Market-based instruments 61 N Newapproaches to resourceaccounting 63 0 Subsidyreform in the coal sectorin China 64 P Auctionablepermits for the consumptionof ozone-depletingsubstances in Singapore 66 Q Policyinstruments for improvedenvironmental management-Voluntary agreements and public involvement 67 R The EcoWatchProject in the Philippines 68 S Timedimensions of humanand naturalsystems 76

FIGURES 1 Global primaryenergy consumption by source,and total in EJ/yr,1860-1990 4 2 Global temperaturesand atmosphericcarbon dioxide 4 3 Projectedpopulation of the world, 1990-2150 5 4 Ozone-depletingchemicals have begun to decreasein the loweratmosphere 8 5 Global observedtemperatures 14 6 Projectedtemperatures 14 7 Landat risk in a delta- Potentiallosses in Bangladeshdue to a 1m risein sealevel 15 8 Arcticozone image time series,1979-97 16 9 What happenedto the foreststhat oncecovered the Earth? 18 10 Watersupply service coverage (percent of populationserved) at the end of 1994 20 11 Linkagesamong environmental issues 23 12 Currentand projectedranges of beechtrees in the U.S. 24 13 Changesin ecosystems 25 14 Lossof coastalwetlands 26 15 Observedchange in annualprecipitation for the 2050s 27 16 Changein waterstress 28 17 Fooddiagram 32 18 Effectson agriculturalproductivity with differentlevels of adaptation 33 19 Projectedcrop yield changes- 2020to 2080 34 20 World populationin freshwaterscarcity, stress, and relativesufficiency in 1995and 2050 38 21 Percentreduction in June-Augustsoil moisture 39 22 Energysupply - Sustainedgrowth scenario 44 23 Thetotal industrialecology cycle 46 24 Vector-bornediseases 49 25 Peopleat riskfrom a 44 cm sea-levelrise by the 2080s,assuming 1990s level of flood protection 51 26 Thepolicy matrix 58

vii

Foreword

THE FIRSTSATELLITE PICTURES no escape, must be recognized and of theEarth freely suspended in spacenot managed." only usheredin a new era for spaceex- Asa result,across the environmental ploration but also gave rise to a new sciencesthere was a new emphasison ecologicalmodel for the scientificstudy researchthat would bridgeexisting disci- of theenvironment. These pictures were a plinarydivides and produce insights into visuallyirrefutable proof of the finiteness the complexand ill-understood workings of the planet we inhabit and the inter- of the planetaryphenomenon. connectednessof its livingsystems. Atthesametime,itwasfeltthatthere A seminal report from the World was an imperativeneed to improveour Commissionon Environmentand Devel- understandingof the natural,integrated opmentcaptured this sense very well: functioningof thewhole Earthsystem and for a betterunderstanding of how the natu- "From space,we seea small and fragile rafucingofteEthsytm balldominated not by humanactivity and edificebut by a patternof clouds,oceans, impactson human activitiesand interests. greeneryand soils. Humanity's inability to The environmentalscience that has fit its activitiesinto that patternis chang- emergedtends to be multi-disciplinaryin ingplanetary systemsfundamentally. Many character.And it is also a collaborative such changesare accompaniedby life- enterprise.Thus, environmental sciences threateninghazards, from environmental investigateenvironmental relationships degradation to nuclear destruction. overa wide rangeof levels,with a prin- Thesenew realities,from which thereis cipal focus on relationships-between

ix ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future human beingsand other living beingsand the sys- effortsto reducegreenhouse gas emissions through tems in which they exist. the use of modern plantation biomassenergy-a Let us not forget that many of the human- practicethat can havepositive impactson biodiver- induced changes in the global environment are sity, water quality, and land-management.Further, qualitatively different from those seen before. As synergiescanbeachievedthroughcarefullyplanned greaternumbers of people requiremore food, more interventionsthat build on interlinkagesamong en- energy,and more goodsand services,their require- vironmental issues. mentsare in turn being reflectedin global increases This report, ProtectingOur Planet:Securing in fossilfuel combustion,agricultural production and Our Future,the result of a collaborativeenterprise associateduse of land, fertilizersand pesticides,and betweenthe World Bank, U.S. National Aeronau- increased utilization of freshwater resources.In- tics and Space Administration, and the United creases in the severity of one major global NationsEnvironment Programme, depicts in a com- environmental issuehave the potential for exacer- prehensive manner the linkages-physical and bating others. For instance, changes in the biochemical-between a numberof environmental atmosphereand climate have effectsthat prolifer- issues. It also addressesthe means by which ate throughout the other global environmental interlinkedglobal environmentalissues can becon- issues.Increases in carbon dioxide concentrations fronted in an integratedmanner. will lead to changesin the amountand patternsof UNEP is pleasedto have initiated and been water useby individual species.A changedclimate associatedwith this study and recommendsit to the will lead to a loss of biodiversity as some species wider environmentaland policy community.I want would no longer be able to cope with the new con- to congratulateRobert Watson for his characteristic ditions. But it will also createopportunities for new enthusiasmin making sure that the report comes species,weeds, and peststo multiply. out and thank my colleaguesin the World Bankand Unfortunately,efforts to achieve these goals NASAfor their support. are being implementedin ways that encouragea This reportwould not havebeen possible with- single-issuefocus, settingthe stagefor implementa- out the many scientific and policy experts who tion of measuresthat advancethe attainmentof one contributed to it. Their contributions are acknowl- goal or objectiveat the expenseof others.The single- edgedelsewhere in the report. My congratulations issue and sectoralfocus createsthe potential for to all of them. unproductive competition among environmental and developmentgoals. We have to develop technologiesand practices that can simultaneouslyhelp meet important KlausTopfer social and economic goals and also addressinter- ExecutiveDirector related environmental problems. One example is United Nations EnvironmentProgramme

x Foreword

Responsesto global environmental issues are not fringe activities. They are central to meeting human needs and reducingpoverty. This reportrecognizes a number ofcritical linkages among the global environment issuesand meeting human needs. It also identifies a number of opportunities for strategic interventions. I wholeheartedly commit the Bank to do all it can to forge a global partnership to promote equitable approaches to global environmental issues,and to do so quickly,Time is not on our side. This agenda cannot afford to wait.

JamesD. Wolfensohn President TheWorld Bank

Preface

THE GENESISOF THIS REPORT mentalissues and meeting the basic hu- was a United Nations EnvironmentPro- man needsof adequatefood, clean water, gramme (UNEP)-sponsoredworkshop on energy and a healthyenvironment. approachesto conserve and sustainably Policymakers who represent their usebiodiversity. At that meetingit was rec- governmentsat the internationalnegotiat- ognized that the scientific community, ing sessionsof the environmental con- governments,and the secretariatsof the ventionsare the intendedaudience forthis global environmentalconventions tended work as well as the managers and to view the issuesof climate change,loss planners in a wide variety of ministries, of biological diversity, land degradation/ including agriculture, forestry, water re- desertification,stratospheric ozone deple- sources, natural resource management, tion, fresh and marine water degradation, energy,and industry. deforestation/unsustainableforestry, and This document does not contain any persistentorganic pollutants in isolation. original research but rather synthesizes However,in reality theseissues are closely information from a wide variety of inter- connected. national scientific and technical assess- At the conclusion of the workshop ments and policy reports. It has been UNEPasked whether a small group of ex- written by a small number of authors,and pertscould be convenedto preparea brief a much largergroup of contributors,who reportthat identifiedthe key scientificand areexperienced in the scientificand policy policy linkages among these issues,and aspectsof these issues.The report repre- the linkagesbetween these global environ- sents the views and judgments of the Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future individualauthors and contributorsand doesnot contributedto this reportby reviewingdrafts and necessarilyreflect the views of the three sponsoring providinginput to theAppendices. agencies,UNEP, the U.S.National Aeronautics and I wouldalso like to acknowledgethe financial SpaceAdministration and the World Bank,or their supportfrom the UnitedNations Environment Pro- governments. gramme(UNEP) and the U.S.National Aeronautics This reporthas been made possible because andSpace Administration (NASA). of the dedicationof a largenumber of peoplewho The fundamentalconclusion of this reportis havefreely devoted their time to write,review, edit, thatwe mustidentify and understand the scientific anddesktop it, oftenduring their evenings and week- andpolicy interl inkages among these issues and start ends.In particularI would liketo acknowledge:the to addressthem in a moreholistic manner if the co-authorsand contributors for theirintellectual in- visionof sustainabledevelopment is to be realized. put, LauraVan Wie McGroryfor technicalediting, JimCantrell for desktoppublishing and designing thecover and book, Lisa Segnestam for assisting with the figures,and Isabel Alegre for her tirelesswork in organizingmeetings and teleconferencesand RobertT.Watson ensuringthat the co-authors and I stayedon sched- Director,Environment Department ule. In addition,many World Bankand UNEPstaff TheWorld Bank

xiv Executive Summary

ProtectingOur Planet - SecuringOur Future LINKAGESAMONG GLOBuL ENviRONMENTAL ISSuES AND HuMANNws

Thenatural environment always has been exploitedto fulfillhuman needs, but during this century the scale of our demands has grown so large that we are degrading the ecosystemsupon which our health and livelihoods depend. However, socially and environmentally sustainable economic development can be realized by adopting an appropriatemix of technologies,policies, and practicesthat explicitlyrecognize the inextricable linkages among environmental systems and basic human needs.

MORE THAN TEN YEARSAFTER compositionof the atmosphere,the avail- the BrundtlandCommissioni and six ability and quality of fresh water, the yearsafter the EarthSummit in Rio,a productivityof agriculturalland, andthe numberof globalenvironmental prob- structureand functioning of terrestrialand lemsare growingmore severe and are marineecosystems are changingas a re- beginningtothreaten the ability of nations sultof humanactivities. These changes are to meetthe development goals of a grow- occurringat unprecedentedrates, and in ing humanpopulation. These global somecases are qualitatively different than environmentalproblems include climate changesseen before. The Earthcurrently change,loss of biologicaldiversity, land is approachingthe point whereits physi- degradationand desertification,defores- caland biological systems may not be able tationand forest degradation, pollution of to meethuman demands for environmen- fresh and marine waters,depletion of tal goods and services,threatening the stratosphericozone, and accumulation of abilityof nationsto meettheir populations' persistentorganic pollutants. Only in the basicneeds for adequatefood and clean caseof ozonedepletion have nations taken water,energy supplies, safe shelter, and a significantstepsto reverse thedecline. The healthyenvironment. In someregions of

xv ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

the world, this point alreadyhas been reached.Gov- Actionstaken to fulfill humanneeds are in- ernments and other sectors of society have creasinglyrecognized to havelocal, regional,and acknowledged,in Agenda 21 and a seriesof inter- globalenvironmental consequences. Global envi- national conventionsand agreements,that global ronmentalproblems and the ability to meet human environmentalprotection and sustainableeconomic needsare linked through local, regional,and global developmentare inextricablylinked: Eachdepends patternsof naturalresource degradation and air and on the other. water pollution. Recognizingthese links provides The Earth'sphysical and biologicalsystems policymakerswith an excellentopportunity to cost- (land,atmosphere, and oceans) provide humans effectively addressglobal environmental issuesat withthe goodsand services essential for survival the local,national, and regional levels. Multiple andgood health. These include goodssuch as food, timber, and medicines; and services such as the purification of air and water, soil generationand achievedby adopting a combination of technolo- maintenanceof soil fertility, pollination of cropsand gies,policies, and measuresthat explicitly recognize naturalvegetation, dispersal of seeds,preservation the linkagesamong the environmentalproblems and of biodiversity, and control of the vast majority of satisfyinghuman needs. agricultural pests.The Earth's natural systemsalso All globalenvironmental problems are caused stabilize the Earth'sclimate, offer protection from by the sameunderlying driving forces: population the sun'sharmful ultraviolet rays,and provide aes- size,level of consumption,and choice of technolo- thetic beauty and support for the world's diverse gies.Demand for environmentalgoods and services cultures. dependson the size of populations and people's Globalenvironmental problems and the abil- desireto obtain basicgoods and increasestandards ity to meet humanneeds are linkedthrough a set of living. The ways in which these needsand de- of physical,chemical, and biological processes. The siresare fulfilled depend on a society's choice of major components of the Earth system-its biotechnologies,which in turn have a large influence geochemical cycles, the climate system,and the on global, regional,and local environmentalchange. protective ozone layer-all interact to regulatethe The burdenof responsibilityforthe impactsofthese composition of the atmosphere,the productivity of choices varies widely. All people affect the envi- oceansand land, and the sustainabilityof ecosys- ronment,but richerpeople (and thus richer nations) tem goods and services. When human activities affect one componentof the Earthsystem, there of- haveta dispropori e ctnduepto hge per ten are ramificationsfor other componentsas well capita levels of resourceconsumption and pollu Forexample, a change in the Earth'sclimate would tion. Poor communities,however, typically are the likely reduce biodiversity, changethe distribution most vulnerable to the effects of environmental and productivity of forests,and increasethe rateof degradation, since they have fewer resourcesfor lossof stratosphericozone. Likewise,conversion of adaptingto and resolvingenvironmental problems. foreststo other types of land cover can increase Widespreadpoverty and inequity are aggravatedby greenhousegas emissions into the atmosphereand environmentaldecline, and alsocan exacerbateen- thus contribute to change climate, and can reduce vironmentaldegradation when poorcommunitiesare biological diversity and affect water resources. compelledto overexploit local resourcesto survive.

xvi Executive Summary

Addressingglobal environmental issues in an through the formation of new partnershipsamong integratedmanner can be accomplishedusing key actorsthat build upontheir comparativeadvan- manyof the sametechnologies and policy instru- tages,and by overcomingthe fragmented,sectoral mentsthat are usedto contendwith the issues decisionstructures of both nationaland international separately,but in differentcombinations. Because institutionsand organizations.Significant potential of the links amongthe global environmental prob- also existsto improve integrationof scientificinput lems and the resources needed to meet human intotheexistingenvironmentalconventions, through needs,chosen technologies and policieswill rarely the preparationof scientific assessmentsthat meet maximize any individual outcome. Nevertheless, the needsof multiple institutionsand agreements. recognition of theselinkages offers the opportunity The currentrate of globalenvironmental deg- to identify cost-effective interventions that yield radationis unprecedented,and there is potential multiple benefits("win-win" options) and advance for surprisesand non-linearities.Time scales asso- progresstoward a more sustainablefuture. Such ciatedwith reversingenvironmental damage often progresscan be achievedby incorporatingaware- areon the orderof decadesto centuries,and some nessof global environmentalissues into all sectoral damages-e.g., species loss-are irreversible. Ad- decisions, including managementof agriculture, equatetime to addressthese issuesis a luxury that forestry,energy, and water resources;and effortsto may not always be available. The implications of correctmarket, policy, institutional,and knowledge currentrates of resourcedepletion and environmen- failures. "Command and control" policies, market tal degradation-the undermining of the very mechanisms,and voluntary agreements,used in foundation of long-termsustainable economic de- various combinations, can help bring about such velopment-warrant consideration of a more changes.Governments can encouragethis process precautionaryapproach to environmentalpolicy for- by creating an enabling policy environment,estab- mulation. lishing a supporting regulatory framework, mobilizing public involvement,and fosteringcivil Note institutions to addressthese issues. 1. The 1987 UN World Commissionon Environ- Achievinga sustainableworld will require ment and Development (the "Brundtland improvedinstitutional arrangements-involving Commission"),stated that sustainabledevelop- governments,the privatesector, nonprofit organi- ment "...meetsthe needsof the presentwithout zations,and academia-at the national,regional, compromisingthe ability of future generations and globallevels. Important progress can be made to meet their needs."

W herethere are threats of seriousor irreversibledamage, scientific W uncertaintyshall not be usedto postponecost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation."

-Rio Declarationon Environmentand Development

xvii

INTRODUCTION

THE IMPORTANCEOF GLOBAL it is essentialto gain an improvedunder- environmental issues-such as climate standing of the scientific and policy change,loss of biological diversity,strato- interlinkagesamong them and how they spheric ozone depletion, deforestation, influenceour ability to meetbasic human and waterdegradation-to povertyal levia- needs. tion and developmentis now becoming more fully recognized. However, these THE CHALLENGE OF MEETING global environmentalissues are, to a large HUMAN NEEDS extent, normally thought of as isolated issues by both the scientific and policy Oneofthemajorchallengesfacinghuman- communities.As a result,they often fail to kind isto providean equitablestandard of adequatelyrecognize that there arestrong living for this and future generations:ad- scientific and policy interlinkagesamong equatefood, clean water and energy,safe the global environmentalissues, between shelter, a healthy environment, an edu- global environmentalissues and local and cated public, and satisfyingwork. Today regional environmental issues,and be- more than 1.3 billion people live on less tween environmental issues and basic than $1 per day and 3 billion people live human needs-adequatefood, clean wa- on lessthan$2 perday,800 million people ter, energy services, and a healthy are malnourished,1.3 billion people live environment.If theseglobal environmen- without clean water, 2 billion peoplelive tal issuesaretobeaddressedwithinamore without sanitation,2 billion people lack holistic and synergisticpolicy framework, electricity, and 1.4 billion people are ex- ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

theknowledge required to developin asocially

- =~~- andenvironmentally sustainable manner.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT DEPENDS ON A HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT

;_-2 -~-'-Oureconomic systems,our health,and our lifestyles dependon the continuedadequate functioning of _3 ecologicalsystems. in very broadterms, the availability of natural goods and servicesis controlled bythe hydrologiccycle, biogeochemical cycles, the

-- ~~~~'~~' climate system,and the maintenanceof biological diversityand functioning ecosystems. TheEarth's natural ecosystems-living organ- ismsinteracting with eachother and their physical posedto dangerouslevels of outdoorair pollution. environment-providehumans with a vastarray of Theseunfulfilled needs for a cleanand healthyen- marketableecosystem goods, such as seafood, for- vironment cause millions of people to die age,timber, biomass fuels, natural fibers, and many prematurelyeach year. pharmaceuticals,industrial products and their pre- Over the next century the world's population cursors. These natural ecosystem goods are in is expected to double. To meet the needsof this addition to the major productsfrom managedeco- growingpopulationwhilesignificantlyreducingthe systems, such as the output from agriculture, number of people in abject poverty implies a num- aquaculture,livestock, and plantationforestry. The ber of formidabledevelopment challenges: harvestand trade of ecosystemgoods representan essentialand familiar part of the human economy. Ei Double food production within the next 35 Ecosystemsalso provide servicesthattypically yearswithout further conversionof critical natu- are not traded in the marketplace,but are funda- ral habitatsand excessiveuse of chemicals mental parts of our life-support system. Those c Provideclean waterand sanitationto everyone ecosystemservices include: ci Provide the energy servicesneeded to stimu- late economic growth without continued o Purificationof air and water degradationof land, air, and water o Detoxificationand decompositionof wastes o Develop safeurban environmentswithout ex- o Stabilization and moderation of the Earth's cessiveair and water pollution climate o Improvehealth carefacilities o Moderationof floods and droughts oi Provideeducational opportunities, especially for o Moderation of temperatureextremes and the girls force of winds and waves o Provide countries with assistanceso that they o Generation and renewal of soil and soil can access,generate, disseminate, and utilize fertility

2 Introduction z Dispersal of seeds o Pollination of plants, including crops o Control of pests ii Maintenance of biodiversity, including genetic diversity, from which humanity derives key inputs to its agricultural, medicinal, and industrial enterprise o Support of diverse human cultures and provision of aesthetic beauty.

THE RATE OF CHANGE IS GROWING

For millennia, human demands on the planet's ecosystems have been growing steadily, in some cases gradually overloading local and regional ecosystems. A Deforestationand faulty irrigation pracces in the Powergeneration, essential for economicdevelopment, maycause local and global environmental damage. Middle East caused land degradation as early as 7,000 years ago, and the resulting decline in food production led to the decline of whole societies. Plato wrote, in the fifth century BC, that deforestation and erosion were wasting away the land. For Underlying reasons for centuries, deforestation and land degradation were environmental degradation regional problems, undermining societies in many Increased demand for water, biological re- parts of the world. sources, and energy services as a result of economic and population growth By the middle of this century-with a growing Failure of governmentsto regulate the use of world population and rising per capita consump- water, biological resources,and energy for sus- tion driven by increasing affluence and choice of taiable development, which will require a transition to viewing many-of these resources technologies-human impacts on the environment more as economic than public goods had become global in scale. As the demand for food, Choice of inappropriate technologies Failure to internalize environmental externali- clean water, and energy services has Increased, the ties into market prices, that is, appropriately ability of the environment to meet some of these reflect the costs of environmental degradation needs has been threatened (see box A). Examples in market prices Failure of markets and governments in their of this degradation include unprecedented changes national income accounting to recognize the in the composition of the atmosphere, the amount true value of natural resources(e.g., water and of high quality fresh water, the productivity of the biological resources) Failure to appropriate the regional and global land, and the structure and functioning of terrestrial economic values of natural resourcesand eco- and marine ecosystems. logical servicesto the local level Many of these human-induced changes in the Failureto considerthe long-termconsequences of developmentactivities. global environment are qualitatively different from ' t

3 ProtectingOur Planet - SecuringOur Future thoseseen before. For example, the production,use, FIGURE I and discardingof chemicalsthat havenever before Globalprimary energy consumption by source,and total existed,such as insecticides,herbicides, chlorofluo- in EJ/yr,1860-1990 rocarbons, and halons have had completely (data for crudeoil includenon-energy feedstocks) unanticipated effects, such as the destruction of 140 * stratosphericozone by chlorofluorocarbonsand 120- Includesnon-energyfeedstocks C o halons.Conversely, while other environmentalim- 100 Oil.. pactsof modernsociety are not qualitativelydifferent 80 - G from those seen before,their magnitudeand rates Coal!.'. of change produce dramaticallynew phenomena. 60 - . Ga Since 1850 energyconsumption (seefigure 1) and 40 - Hydr agriculturalproduction have increased dramatically. 20 Woodp Thesetrends are leadingto changesin atmospheric 0 Nulear concentrationsof carbondioxide, a key greenhouse 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 gas,well outsidethe rangeof naturalvariation over Year theundredlastseveral housand ears (se figure Sources:IPCC, 1996 (WG2 Energy Primer); BP~ various volumes; IEA, 1993; the lastseveral hundred thousand years (see figure Marchettiand Nakicenovic, 1979. 2). Although more by accidentthan by design,humans now influence conditions over the entire biosphere. The global human population, after millions Our growing useof the environmentis begin- of years of slow increase,began to grow rapidly ning to exceed the assimilative and regenerative abouttwo centuriesago. During this century alone capacitiesof Earth'smajor biological and physical the global populationhas grown from about 1.6 bil- systems,both regionallyand globally. TheEarth may be approachinga point where it will not be able to meetthe demandfor environmentalgoods and ser- Globaltemperatures and atmospheric carbon dioxide vices.These changes are beginningto haveadverse consequencesfor humanpopulations, especially the

poorestsegments of society. . 2 - nx 280 - Api Oa 260 - a DRIVING FORCES OF ENVIRONMENTAL m 2 Carbon dioxide 2, CHANGE 220- I h-2.5 3 0- 0 E 200- 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-

The scaleof humanimpact on the environmentis 80- -2.5 -- 5.0 ~ determinedby threeinterdependent factors, which - -75 3

can be calledthe drivingforces of environmental u Temperaturechange - 10.0 n change.They are the size of the humanpopulation, I l I I 160 120 80 40 0 the per capita consumptionof resources(which is ThousandsofYears Before Present usually related to the affluence of a society), and the technologiesused to produceand consumethese resources. Source:Office of Scienceand Technology Policy. Washington, D.C.

4 Introduction

lion to nearly 6 billion. Mid-rangepopulation pro- The magnitude of the environmental impact jections from the United Nations forecasta world of humansocieties depends on the form of consump- population of close to 10 billion within 50 years, tion; and consumption, particularly in the richer given current trends (seefigure 3). Any growth in nations,has been increasingat a fasterrate than the population bringsat leastsome increasedenviron- global population. Since 1900 the world's population hasmore than tripled, mental pressures,as people consume food, use while the global economy hasgrown 20-fold, fossil fuel consumption30-fold, energy,seek fresh water and sanitation,build homes, an industril activ fol Annual w oldc and seekjobs. productive ~and industrial activity 50-fold. Annual world consumptionof all forms of commercially sold energy Hence the issueof populationgrowth is very is now the equivalentof 26,000 supertankers,each important. The population conferencein Cairo in carryingtwo million barrelsof oil. Most of the eco- 1994 recognizedthat reducing the rate of popula- nomic development has happenedsince 1950 in tion growth is closely linked to economic the two dozen richest countries-most of them in development.The delegatesrecognized that there the Northern Hemisphere.These countries contain shouldbe three elementsin any successfulprogram lessthan one quarterof the world's population, but to limit population growth: culturally acceptable they are responsiblefor more than half of the an- forms of contraception, education of girls and nual consumption of a number of resources, women,and microenterpriselending to women.The including commercially sold energy, metal, and empowermentof women will be absolutelycritical wood. Through their use of fossil energy,the rich in limiting populationgrowth, hencein dealingwith countries also emit the bulk of greenhousegases, suchas carbon dioxide. environmental Issues. Technology,from the harnessingof fire to the developmentof computers,has allowed the human FIGURE 3 population to expand while living in ever greater comfort and security.Technology allows us to re- 30 shapeour environmentby actively pavingthe land, dammingrivers, clearing forests, and-as a by-prod- 25 - uct of our activities-changing the composition of

20 _ the atmosphere.It is our choice of technologiesthat v5 determinesthe magnitudeof many environmental .2 Is - . _

5 ProtectingOur Planet - SecuringOur Future are eroded. Finally, technologieswill only work if status.The widespread ecological and humanhealth we chooseto employ them. costsof releasingpollutants into the generalenvi- Cultural, social, and economic forces and in- ronment are not normally counted in the balance stitutions also influence these three basic factors sheets of companies or the national accounts of driving environmentalchange and the interactions among them. Whether these are religious beliefs, goernment Trefe, teyhae cled "eteniai- ties." Only in recentyears have someorganizations political rights,or the functioningof economic markets,these forces clearly and dramaticallyinfluence begunto try to subtractecosystem and humanhealth the environmental impact of any specific lossesfrom balancesheets in an effortto give a truer technology. picture of the economic stateof our societies. The internationalscientific, environmental, and RECOGNIZING THE THREAT policy communities have begun to recognizethe seriousnessof suchworldwide environmentalissues It hastaken humanity a very long time to begin to asclimate change,the depletionof the stratospheric realize the scope and scale of environmental ozone layer,the lossof biological diversity, deserti- changes.One of the important reasonsfor this fail- ing is that we take ecosystem functioning and fication and land degradation,unsustainable use of servicesfor granted.Because there is no "price" for forests, degradation of freshwaterand marine re- breathableair, it is consideredto be a free good. sources,and the accumulationof persistentorganic Becauseecosystem services are not normally traded pollutants (seebox B). While some of these,such in the marketplace,there are no marketmechanisms as climate changeand damageto the ozone layer, in place to alert societyto their rapidly declining have emergedas truly global issues,their impact is

Evolutionof major internationalglobal environmentalconferences and agreements 1972 StockholmConference on the HumanEnvironment 1982 Lawof the Sea 1985 ViennaConvention for the Protectionof the OzoneLayer 1987 Montreal Protocolon Substancesthat Depletethe Ozone Layer(later strengthenedin a series of amendmentsand adjustments) 1992 TheUN Conferenceon Environmentand Development X Agenda21 and the RioDeclaration * Conventionon BiologicalDiversity m Conventionon ClimateChange f Statementof Principleson ForestManagement, Conservation and Sustainable Development 1994 TheUN Conventionto CombatDesertification 1995 GlobalProgramme for Actionfor the Protectionof the MarineEnvironment from Land-based Activities 1997 KyotoProtocol on GreenhouseGases 1997 TheUN Conventionon the Lawof the Non-NavigationalUses of InternationalWatercourses 1998 Conventionon the Prior InformedConsent (PIC) Procedure for CertainHazardous Chemicals and Pesticidesin InternationalTrade

6 Introduction

felt at the local and regional levels, for example, example,the combustionof coal resultsin lo- agricultural productivity and availability of water. cal air pollution (fine particulatesand oxidants), The othersare more directly linked to the more fa- regional air pollution (acid and heavy metal miliar long-standinglocal, national, and regional deposition), and climate change. In turn, environmentalissues of air and water pollution and changesin climate can increasethe levels of soil degradation. local air pollutants suchas ozone. Internationalenvironmental conventions have Li Between environmental issues and human been negotiated for four of these issues(climate needs. For example, agricultural practicesaf- change,stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of bio- fect climate through emissionsof greenhouse logicaldiversity, and desertification). However, these gases,while climate changesaffect our ability global environmental issuesare, to a large extent, to producefood. thought of as isolated issuesby both the scientific and policy communities, which have failed to ad- While considerableprogress has been made equatelyrecognize the strongscientific and policy in addressinglocal air and water quality issuesin linkages: someplaces, progress on protectingthe global environment since the EarthSummit in Rio hasbeen limited. Atmosphericconcentrations of greenhouse gaseshave continued to increaseby aboutone percent per year. Naturalhabitats continue to be lost at increasingrates; wetlands and forestsare now dis- appearingat a rateof aboutone half to one percent eachyear. Freshwater continues to bedegraded. The

'-~ > * major{ia 'Ibright r ' ' spots +< ism that. , the- concentrations of a num-

:<-+, * *. ^ berX of ozone-depleting*;t - substances have stopped increasingin the atmosphere,and some have even v r<-t 8 ¢tX \ ?7; decreasedas a resultof the ViennaConvention to A*t X * efl sfProtecty t the Ozone Layerand the associatedMontreal The United Nationshas been the leaderin developingconsensus on Protocol(see figure 4). global environmentalconcerns. We face a dauntingset of challenges:meeting both social and environmentalgoals in the face of Among global environmental issues.For ex- rapid population and economic growth. Rising to ample, changes in climate can change the these challengeswill require societiesto become structureand functioningof ecologicalsystems, far more efficient in the useof energy and natural which in turn can affect the Earth'sclimate by resources.Success in dealing with global environ- altering the emissionsof key greenhousegases mental problems will in large part determine our from ecologicalsystems. ability to meet our goals for sustainabledevelop- Between global environmental issuesand lo- ment. For example, projected changesin climate, cal and regional environmental issues. For loss of biological diversity, and desertificationall

7 ProtectingOur Planet - SecuringOur Future

FIGURE 4 Ozone-depleting chemicals have begun to decrease in the lower atmosphere

Atmospheric abundanceof ozone-depleting Since 1994,the amount of these chemicalsfrom humans(chlorine andbromine chemicals present in the atmo- as"equivalent chlorine" in the troposphere,ppb). spherehas decreased.

4 Morerecently ...... Since 1975 ......

.3. .i*. *.* ~~~~~NOAA/CMDL

Useof CFCs,HCFCs, chlorinated solvents, and halonscaused a dramatic increasein the atmosphericabundance of chemicals(chlorine and bromine) capableof depleting stratosphericozone in the yearsbefore 1994.

Note: For additional information see, http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/noah/totalcl/totalcl.htmI. Source:Montzka et al. 1996. Science,272, 1318-1322.

threatenwater resourcesand the sustainabilityof dichotomy betweensustainable economic growth world food production. This is occurringat a time and environmentalprotection, and that the environ- when the demandfor water and food is rapidly in- mentcannotbe viewed as a luxuryyetto beafforded. creasing becauseof economic developmentand The reasonfor protecting the environment is not populationgrowth, thus placingsevere demands on merelyto help the economyperform better. Rather, water resource management and agricultural it is that the natural environment is the ultimate productivity. sourceof all materialinputs and services upon which A successfultransition to developmentthat is the world's economydepends. True environmental economically,socially, and environmentallysound protection means moving to more ecologically and sustainableover the long term will entail a soundforms of energygeneration and food produc- seriesof importantchanges. tion, to eco-efficientindustries, and to lifestylesthat One suchchange is to fostera clear and wide- recognizenatural limits. spread recognition of the fundamental linkages Win-win, cost-effectivesolutions can reduce betweenenvironmental quality and sustainablede- environmental impactswhile meeting immediate velopment.It is importantfor both governmentsand and long-termhuman needs.For example,modern industries to recognize that there is no ultimate renewable energy technologies are often cost-

8 Introduction competitive, particularly in many rural areas,and making;the creationof partnershipsbetween gov- can avoid the environmental damagescaused by ernments,the privatesector, development agencies the combustionof fossil fuels. It is equally impor- and non-profit organizations;the developmentand tantto avoid win-loseactions thataddress one global widespreadsharing of knowledge; investmentsin environmental issue,but cause another problem. environmentallycompatible techniques,products An inappropriatelydesigned large dam could dis- and processes;and the mobilization of financial replace the use of fossil fuels, but might also cause sourcesfor development. significant loss of biodiversity, harmful changesin A prerequisiteto makingtrue progresstoward water flows, and the displacementof valley dwell- a sustainableworld for all people isthe recognition ers, perhapswithout adequateresettlement plans. that meetingseveral goals at one time will usually Sustainabledevelopment will requirecorrect- preventus from maximizing any single objective. ing market, policy, institutional, and knowledge Forexample, the approachesthat maximizeagricul- failures. It also will require a major change in the tural output may significantlydiminish water quality understandingand attitudesof many peoplealong and biodiversityand thus the long-termbasis for re- with the developmentof fundamentallynew ways silient food production; or land-usepolicies that of accountingfor the environmentas an economic maximizethe quantity of land protectedfor biodi- good and reflectingthis in nationalaccounts. Envi- versity may reduceagricultural outputs. If we are to ronmentally sound market behavior can be meetour many goals we cannot considerthem in stimulatedthrough the creationof an enablingpolicy isolation;they mustbe viewed as interdependent and environmentand an appropriatenational and inter- interlinked.This multiple-factorapproach provides nationalregulatory framework. The success of such our only hope of real progresstoward an equitable effortswill dependon the empowermentof citizens and sustainablefuture. It also providesus with our and local communitiesto participate in decision- biggestchallenge.

w ~~~~~~~~~~~~~PartI

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES

THEMAJOR GLOBAL ENVIRON- diversity,desertification and land degrada- mentalissues can be divided into two cat- tion, degradation of fresh waters, and egories: those involving the global deforestationand unsustainableuse of for- commonsand thoseof worldwide impor- ests.As theselocal and regionalproblems tance,but not directly involving the global grow in scopeand scale, they will have commons. Global commons issues in- serious cumulative impacts on the plan- volve major components of the Earth etarylife-supportsystem. These issues can system (see box C), such as the atmo- be effectively addressed on a regional sphere,oceans, and land surface,and can basis,but often require multilateralagree- be effectivelyaddressed only if all societ- ments,such as agreementsto combat acid ies are involved. Climate change,ozone rain in Europe,desertification in Africa,and layerdepletion, marine pollution, and the pollution of regionalseas. Appendix 2 pro- build-up of persistentorganic pollutants in vides concise descriptionsof each of the the environmentare global commons is- global environmental issues. suesbecause releases into the atmosphere or the oceans,independently of wherethey STATE OF SCIENTIFICKNOWLEDGE occur, causeglobal changesin the Earth's OF GLOBALENVIRONMENTAL biophysical systems.Mitigation of global CHANGES commonsissues thus can only be accomplished through coordinated actions Climate change among nations. Issuesof worldwide im- Humanactivities, primarily the burningof portance include loss of biological fossilfuels such as coal, oil and naturalgas, Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

Major components of the Earthsystem The Earth'satmosphere: The Earth's weather, climate, and stratosphericozone layer are controlled by the interplayamong physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes. It is the interactionsamong these processesthat determinethe weatherat any place and time. Changesin one partof the systemaffect all other partsof the system,though not necessarilyin a linearor easilypredictable manner.

BrethertonDiagram

Source: NASA, 1986. Earth Systems Science Oyerview:A Programfor Global Change. Washington, DC.

TheEarth's climate: Ultraviolet and visible radiationfrom the sunheat the Earth'ssurface, causing infra-red radiationto beemitted back out to spaceand watervapor to beevaporated from land and oceansurfaces. This solar heatingis amplifiedby greenhousegases in the atmosphere,primarily water vaporand carbon dioxide,which trap someof the outgoinginfra-red radiation and re-radiatesome of it backto the Earth's surface.Thus the greenhousegases act as a thermalblanket, causing the Earthto be 350C warmerthan it would be in their absence. Seasonal and latitudinal variations in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface,combined with the Earth'srotation, produce the majoroceanic and atmosphericcirculation patterns, which areresponsible for localweather and seasonalchanges in climate.Ocean circulation strongly influ- encesclimate and weather on multipletime scales.Biological and ecologicalprocesses play an important role in modulatingthe Earth'sclimate at both the regionaland globalscale by controllingthe amountsof watervapor and othergreenhouse gases that enterthe atmosphere.Regional climate is stronglyinfluenced by terrestrialecosystems because plant transpiration influences the amountof watervapor entering the atmosphere,while globalclimate is partlycontrolled by the fluxesof carbondioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane from ecologicalsystems. The Earth'sclimate is now changingon the regionaland global scalebecause humanactivities are changing the ratesat which waterand othergreenhouse gases enter the atmosphere.

12 Global EnvironmentalIssues

Box C - Majorcomponents of the Earthsystem (continued)

The Earth'sprotective ozone layer: Ultraviolet radiation from the sunproduces ozone in the Earth'supper atmosphereby breakingapart oxygen molecules in the stratosphere.The amountof stratosphericozone, in the absenceof humanactivities, is controlledby the abundanceof a varietyof chemicalsthat are produced by physical,biological, and ecologicalprocesses in the oceansand on land and transportedinto the upper atmosphereby atmosphericcirculation patterns. The ozonelayer absorbsdamaging ultraviolet radiation, thus protectinghumans and ecologicalsystems. Human activities have depleted the Earth'sozone layer by about5 percentdue to the releaseof ozone-depletinggases, such as chlorofluorocarbons, into the atmosphere. The Earth'sbiogeochemical systems: Living organisms play an importantrole in regulatingthe cycling of chemicalson Earth.Plants convert atmospheric carbon dioxide to biologicallyusable forms of carbonthrough photosynthesis.Nitrogen in the air is convertedto biologicallyusable forms by the activity of microbes, which existin part in symbioticrelationships with higherplants. Carbon and nitrogenare cycledby organ- ismsthrough the processesof growth,death, and decomposition.Bacteria, fungi, and otherorganisms are responsiblefor decompositionin the Earth'soceans and soils.Analogous processes control the fluxesof otherchemical constituents of the Earthsystem. Thus, while non-organicgeochemical processes, such as the weatheringof rocks,are responsiblefor the presenceof manychemicals in the Earth'senvironment, living processesare responsiblefor their cycling.Disturbance of thesebiogeochemical cycles can haveprofound effectson the patternsof life on Earth. TheEarth's biological systems: Estimates of the total numberof speciesvary widely; the Global Biodiversity Assessmentconcluded that thereare likely about13 million species,of which only aboutone-tenth have beenidentified. These species interact through competition for resources,and in symbiotic,predator-prey, and parasiticrelationships. Biological diversity at all levels(ecosystems, species, populations, and genes) playsan importantrole in the responseof ecosystemsto environmentalstress; for example,reductions of biodiversitybelow natural ranges may resultin decreasedresilience of ecosystems.The wealth of biological interactionsand populations'responses to eachother and to the physicalenvironment constitute the raw materialfor evolutionarychange in both the shortand long terms.The Earth'sbiological systems are com- prisedof a seriesof linkedcomponents. Changes in one component,such as tropical forests, open oceans, or temperatewetlands, will influencethe functioningof the systemas a whole.A wide varietyof organismsare responsiblefor the patternof resourcesthat humansuse, includingfreshwater, food, timber, and energy. Understandingfully the impactsof any resourcemanagement decision, therefore, depends on acknowledg- ing the interactionsamong the Earth'sbiophysical systems. and land-usepractices, particularly deforestation, are atmosphereeach year. Humans already have in- changingthe atmosphericconcentrations of green- creased the levels of carbon dioxide in the house gasesthat shape our planet's climate. The atmosphereby more than 30 percentsince the be- amountof heat-trappingcarbon (in the form of car- ginning of the industrial revolution and the bon dioxide) releasedeach year by humanactivities large-scaleuse of fossil fuels. is estimatedat 6 billion tons of carbonfrom burning The Earth'sclimate haswarmed by about one- fossil fuels and 1 to 2 billion tons from land-use half degreeCentigrade this century (see figure 5). changes,including deforestation.Of this 7 to 8 bil- The weight of scientific evidencesuggests that hu- lion tons, the oceansabsorb about 2 billion tons of man activities have contributed to this trend. The carbon a year, and plant growth globally absorbs climate is projected to warm another 1 to 3.5 de- another 1.5 to 2.5 billion tons, resulting in a net grees Centigrade over the next century due to addition of about 3.5 billion tons of carbon to the projectedincreases in atmosphericconcentrations

13 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

FIGURE 5 The displacementby rising sealevels of tens of Globalobserved temperatures millions of peoplefrom small islandstates and the low-lying delta areasof Egypt,Bangladesh, Combinedglobal land, air, and seasurface temperatures 1860 to August1998 (relative to 1961-1990average) andChina (see figure 7)

OBO . Shifts in the distribution, structure, and func- 0.70 tioningof terrestrialand aquatic ecosystems, and 0.60 potentially irreversiblechanges, such as lossof biodiversity OAO zz rLIo Decreasedamounts of precipitation in many ,2 020 Jt12arid and semi-aridareas.

2 010 1llillillillillillillillillillillillillillillillillilM l - Thesechanges will directlyand indirectlyaf- e-020 _ l l l lF400 l 6 ll l l 1< fect human welfare. Populations in developing -0.30 - ~~~~~~~~~~~~countriesare generallymore vulnerablethan those

sE30.500 ' r _ in developedcountries, which are the sourceof most _0.60__l _E __ _E _____carbon emissions.Estimates of total economicdam- 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 agefrom a,2 to 3Cwarmingtend to be afew percent Source:The U.K. MeteorologicalOffice. 1997.Climate Change and Its Impacts: A GlobalPerspective. Brittanic Crown Copyright. of world GDP,with considerablyhigher levels of damageto developing countries. These estimates include both potential negativeand positive effects, of greenhousegases (see figure 6). This would be a but arehighiy uncertainbecause many effects-such fasterrate of warming than any observedduring the ghy y as non-marketdamages to ecosystemservices-are last 10,000 years. The projected temperature changeswill be accompanied by changesin the amount and patternsof precipitation, leading, in FIGURE 6 manyareas, to more floodsand droughts.It will also Projectedtemperatures

be accompaniedby a rise in sealevel of 15 to 95 700 _ _ |_ centimeters.

While thesehuman-influenced changes in the 600 Globalco 2 global climate are likely to benefitsome regions (by ClobalTemperature increasingagricultural productivity at high latitudes), theywill alsocause serious problems in manyparts Soo|l 0 V of the world, including:

c)400 400 , g Qf 0 0 E Significant increasesin the geographicrange | and incidenceof insect-bornediseases, particu- 300| larly malaria and dengue, in the tropics and sub-tropics |-

o Increasedrisk of hunger and famine for many 200

of the world's poorestpeople who depend on 170 600 900 1950 20 2050 210- 250 isolatedagricultural systems,especially in the tropicsand sub-tropics Source:IPCC. 1995.Second Assessment Report. Working Group 1. Cambridge.

14 Global EnvironmentalIssues

FIGURE 7 Landat riskin a delta- Potentiallosses in Bangladeshdue to a I m risein sealevel

Source:World Bank. difficult to quantify. In addition, the relationshipbe- ers,and ascleaning solvents, foam blowing agents,

tweenthe beneficialeffects of CO2 fertilization and aerosol propellants,and fire extinguishingagents. the negativeeffects of increasesin agriculturalpests In the stratosphericozone layer, 15 to 50 kilome- and increasedclimatic variability is uncertain. tersabove the surfaceof the Earth,these long-lived The sensitivityof both natural and managed chlorine-andbromine-containing substancesarede- systemsto climate variation is illustratedby the ef- composed by sunlight and chemically react to fectsof fluctuationsof a "normal" climate. El Nino, destroyozone molecules. a periodic natural shift in temperaturesin the Pa- Ozonedepletion is greatest in the polarregions cific Ocean,caused a seriousdisruption in global in latewinter and earlyspring. Since 1979 the ozone weatherpatterns in 1998.These disruptions resulted layer at northern mid-latitudes (30-600) has de- in devastatingfires in SoutheastAsia (particularly creasedby about 6 percent in winter and spring, Indonesia),the Amazon,southern Mexico, Florida, and 3 percentin summerand fall. It hasdecreased Greece and westernCanada, and severeflooding by about 5 percentat southernmid-latitudes on a in numerousregions, notably northernChina. year-roundbasis. This depletion hasresulted in an increasein the level of UV-B radiationreaching the Stratosphericozone depletion Earth's surface. Each 1 percent depletion in the Stratosphericozone, which protects life on Earth amountof ozone overheadresults in just over a 1 from much of the sun's harmfulultraviolet-B radia- percentincrease in UV-B at ground level. tion, hasbeen depletedat all latitudesexcept the A sustainedincrease in ground-levelUV-B ra- tropics and sub-tropicsas a result of emissionsof diation hasa number of harmful effects,including: human-created compounds (see figure 8). The chemicalsinvolved, includingchlorofluorocarbons U A significantincrease in the incidenceof mela- (CFCs),halons, and related substances,have been noma and non-melanoma skin cancer in used for decadesin refrigeratorsand air-condition- light-skinnedpeople

15 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

FIGURE 8 Arcticozone image time series,1979-97

The satellite imagesshow significant ozone depletion in the 1990srelative to the the 1980s.

Source:Paul Newman/NASA GoddardSpace Flight Center 1997 n An acceleratedformation of eyecataracts, which ments,stratospheric ozone levels are projectedto are the leadingcause of blindnessin many de- stop declining within the next decade or two, then veloping countries slowly increaseto pre-1970levels in the middle of o Potential suppressionof the human immune the next century.These projections assume full com- system pliance with the latestinternational agreements on 5 A decreasein the productivity of some terres- control measuresreached in Montreal in 1997. trial and aquaticecological systems o A decreasein air quality, becauseUV-B radia- Lossof biologicaldiversity tion reactswith a number of air pollutantsto Biological diversity, or biodiversity, refers to the form harmful oxidants,including tropospheric variety of life on Earth,including the variety of spe- ozone. cies,the geneticvariability within eachspecies, and the varietyof differentecosystems. The Earth'sbiodi- Becauseof the effectivenessof the Montreal versity is a resultof hundredsof millions of yearsof Protocol and subsequentamendments and adjust- evolution of life on this planet.

16 Global Environmental Issues

Humanactivities are causinga lossof biologi- by economic developmentand related demands, cal diversity among animals and plants globally including the increasingdemand for biological re- estimatedat 50 to 100 timesthe averagerate of spe- sources. cies loss that would be expectedin the absenceof Activities that reduce biodiversityjeopardize humanactivities. The two mostspecies-rich biomes economicdevelopment and humanhealth through are tropical forestsand coral reefs.Tropical forests lossesof useful materials,genetic stocks,and the are under threat largely from conversionto other servicesof intactecosystems. Material lossesinclude land-uses,while coral reefsare experiencing increas- food, wood, and medicines, as well as resources ing levelsof overexploitationand pollution. If current importantfor recreationand tourism.Genetic varia- ratesof lossof tropical forestscontinue for the next tion within speciesis the ultimatebasis for evolution, 30 years(about 1 percentper year), the projected the adaptationof wild populationsto local environ- number of speciesthat the remaining forestcould mentalconditions, and the developmentof animal supportwould be reducedby 5 to 10 percentrela- breedsand cultivated crop varieties which have tive to the forest in the absence of human disturbance.This rate of decline would represent yielded significantdirect benefitsto humanity. 1,000to 10,000 times the expectedrate of extinc- Losing genetic diversity, like losing species tion without deforestationby humans. diversity,makes it even more likely that further en- Some studiessuggest that, globally, as many vironmental disturbance will result in serious asone-half of all mammaland bird speciesmay be- reductionsin the goodsand servicesthat the Earth's come extinct within 200 to 300 years,and that the ecosystemscan provide. Decreased biodiversity also projected rate of extinction of species may equal interfereswith essentialecological services, such as that of the rapid extinctionof the dinosaurs65 mil- pollination, maintenanceof soil fertility, flood con- lion yearsago. trol, water purification,assimilation of wastes,and Biodiversityloss can result from a number of the cyclingof carbonand other nutrients.Finally, in activities,including: addition to the economic reasonsfor protecting biodiversity, many people feel a moral obligation a Habitatconversion and destruction a Fragmentationof largeecosystems into smaller, disconnectedpatches of original vegetation >,:CV ! a o Over-exploitationof species c Introductionor accidentalrelease of exoticspe- a cies that prove harmful to indigenous species a Air and water pollution.

Over the coming decadeshuman-induced cli-

matechange increasingly wi I1become anothermajor , 4 factor in reducingbiological diversity.These pres- The government of Mexico is taking stepsto protect an important sureson biodiversityare, to a large extent,driven migratorysite of the Monarchbutterfly.

17 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

not to destroythe otherliving organismswith which 1971-1990,andabout1percentgloballyduringthis we sharethe Earth. period),the increaseis in secondarygrowth and plantation forests. Deforestationand unsustainableuse of forests The greatestrates of forest lossare now occur- Forestecosystems contain asmuch as 80 percentof ring in the species-richtropics. More than one-fi the world's terrestrialbiodiversity and provide wood rg the s tropic s. More than one-fft fiber and biomassenergy, as well as being critical componentsof the global cycles of water, energy, since1960. Global ratesof forestloss increased from and nutrients.Forest ecosystems are being cleared about 12 million hectaresper year in the 1970sto and degradedat unsustainablerates in many parts over 15 million hectares(0.8 percentof total natu- of the world. One recent study estimatesthat only ral forestcover) per year in the 1980s. During the one-fifth of the world's original forestsremain in an 1990s, deforestationhas been continuing at about unmanagedstate-most of theseare found in Rus- 13 million hectaresper year. sia, Canada,and Brazil (seefigure 9 Current projections suggestthat demand for Over the past severalcenturies an estimated wood will roughly double over the next 50 years, 60 percentof Europeanforests, 30 percentof North which will make increasingthe useof sustainable Americanforests, and 35 percentof the former So- viet Union's forests have been cleared for long forestpractices more difficult. Evenif suchpractices periods,primarily for agricultural purposes.While become more widespread, however, there is no overall forestarea in many mid-latitude temperate guaranteethat existing forestscan sustainablyin- regionshas increased over the past century (20per- creasetheir yield from the current production of 3 cent in the United States,2 percentin Europeduring to 4 billion cubic metersof wood per year. In addition to threats to biodiversity and po- FIGURE 9 tential shortagesin the supply of forest products, What happenedto the foreststhat once covered the Earth? the degradationof forestsrepresents an enormous 1° FrontierForest potential sourceof greenhousegas emissions. For- Non-FrontierForest estecosystems contain about three times the amount E 14 E _ l Cleared of carbon currently present in the atmosphere- aboutone-third of thiscarbon isstored above ground co10 (in trees and other vegetation),and two-thirds is 0 l I storedin the soil. Whenforests are cleared or burned, En 6 _2 much of this carbon is released into the atmo-

2 _ | l =|l = = lll L = sphere-according to current estimates, tropical .11_ | i | |||1 | | iii , deforestationand burning account for about one- Russia Asia N. & C. South Africa Oceania Europe America America quarter of carbon emissions Into the atmosphere Source:D. Bryant, D. Nielsen, and L. Tangley. 1997. The LastFrontier Forests.World from humanactivities. Intensification of forestman- ResourceInstitute. Washington, DC. agement in temperate and boreal forests has the

18 Global EnvironmentalIssues

potential to acceleratethe releaseof carbon from' the soil.

Desertificationand landdegradation _ " _ Roughlyone-quarter of the Earth'sterrestrial surface is used for crops, orchards,and rangelands.Over the past 40 to 50 years, land-cover and land-use . changes (conversion of forestsand grasslandsto cropland, abandonmentof agricultural lands)have been dramaticenough to be apparentfrom satellite images.Over the past few centuries land-usecon- versions,primarily changinggrasslands and forests to agriculture,have contributed significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere. i>

Another result of intensive use of land, par- ==Mr.M . 01 . . . ticularly the world's arid and semi-arid lands, has been massiveland degradationthat hasresulted in a markeddecrease in soil fertility. This problem af- dation of freshwaterlakes and riversand eventually fectsmore than900 million peoplein 100 countries, beingcarried into the sea.This soil lossreduces the some of them among the leastdeveloped nations. intrinsic productivity of the land, forcing farmersto Erosion,salinization, compaction, and other forms compensateby usinghigherfertilizer inputsto main- of degradationaffect 30 percentof the world's irri- tain crop yields. gatedlands, 40 percentof rainfedagricultural lands, Desertification and land degradation under- and 70 percentof rangelands. mine the goal of sustainable development by Desertification and land degradation result increasingpoverty, poor health, malnutrition, im- from poor land management,which can be exacer- paired child development, and susceptibility to bated by climatic variations.Converting wild lands disease.Severe desertification also can leadto large- toagricultureofteninvolvesplowingthesoils,which scalemigrations, which become sourcesof social leadsin temperateregions to an averagedecline in tensionsor cross-bordersecurity issues.The U.N. soil organic matterof between 25 and 40 percent hasestimated that over the next two decades135 over 25 years.Decreasing soil organic matter is al- million peoplewill faceforced migrationor famine most alwaysa clear indication of soil degradation, as a result of food scarcitycaused by soil infertility. and often is accompaniedby reductions in water infiltration, fertility, and ability to retain fertilizers. Freshwaterdegradation Plowingalso exposessoils to wind and water ero- About one-third of the world's population lives in sion, resultingin large-scalepollution of freshwater countries that are experiencing moderateto high resources.Tons of soil can be carriedoff of a single water stress,defined as when 20 to 40 percent of squarekilometeroffertile land,contributingtodegra- available freshwater is already being used. With

19 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

FIGURE 10 Watersupply service coverage (percent of populationserved) at the endof 1994

* Over 75% El 50-75% . 644 * 25-50% [] Under25% C] Nodata

Note: The boundariesshown and the designationsused on this map do not implyofficial endorsement or acceptanceby the United Nations.The dotted line representsapproximately the Lineof Control in Jammuand Kashmiragreed upon by Indiaand Pakistan.The finalstatus of Jammuand Kashmirhas not yet beenagreed uponby the parties. Source:WMO. 1997.Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources ofthe World.Geneva.

increasingdemandsforwaterbyagrowingpopula- young children who die from mostly water-borne tion, this fraction cou[d rise to two-thirds of the diarrheal diseases. world's population by the year 2025, with serious Water shortagesand water pollution cause health implications.Currently, at leastone-fifth of widespreadpublichealth problems,limiteconomic all peopledo not have accessto safedrinking wa- and agricultural development,and harm a wide ter, andabout one-third lack adequatesanitation (see rangeof ecosystems.Maintaining sufficient supplies figure 10).At any given time an estimatedone-half of freshwater for human uses(agriculture, house- of the people in developingcountries sufferfrom hold, and industrial uses)and natural ecosystems water- and food-relateddiseases caused either di- representsan increasingchallenge for manysociet- rectly,by infection,or indirectly,by disease-carrying ies.With largeincreases in both populationand per organismsthat breed in water and food. The World capita useof water over the past century, efficient Health Organization estimatesthat more than 5 allocationofwaterresourcesamongcompetinguses million people die eachyear from diseasescaused has become increasinglydifficult. Someestimates by unsafedrinking water and lack of water for sani- showthat by 2025,when the world populationwill tationand hygiene.These numbers include 3 million likely have risen to more than 8 billion, almost all

20 Global EnvironmentalIssues

of the economically accessiblewater in the world may be required to meet the needsof agriculture, households,and industry, and to maintain ecosys- - tem needs. An important sector that is sensitive to the quantity and quality of freshwatersupplies is irri- gated agriculture. Seventy percent of the water withdrawnfrom lakes,rivers, and groundwateraqui- fersis alreadyused for irrigationof agriculturallands, _i with much of this irrigation water used inefficiently due to evaporationor seepage.It is estimatedthat 80 percentof the additional food suppliesrequired to feed the world's population over the next 30 years is-.ee ae a ma .- Marinefisheries are a majorsource of proteinworldwide, but are underthreat will dependon irrigation.Our ability to reducefresh- from over-exploitation. waterdegradation-through conservation, increased sewage and effluent treatment, reduced use of economic activities worth trillions of dollars each pesticides,cleaner industrial production, and appli- year. Despitethis vital role, coastaland marine sys- cation of demandmanagement-will thus be key to tems are being rapidly degradedin many partsof meeting the global demandfor food. the globe. In coastalareas, where human activities are concentrated,pollution, over-exploitationof re- Marine environmentand resourcedegradation sources, development of critical habitatssuch as Oceansplay a vital role in the global environment. wetlandsand mangroves,and runofffrom poor land- Covering70 percentof the Earth'ssurface, they in- use practices have led to drastic reductions in fluence global climate, food production, and nearshorefisheries production and aquatic biodiversity. Coastal marine environments also are showing signs of stressfrom increasing pollution from shipping and mining activities, agrochemical Jj | t; run-off,oil spills (600,000tons/year), unsustainable fishing practices,and the introduction of alien species through ballast water. It is estimatedthat 10 percent of the world's coral reefs,which support about one third of the world's marine fish (93,000 specieshave been identified), already have been severelydegraded; if currenttrends persist, one-third of the world's reefswill be destroyedwithin two decades.This decline in reefquality hasserious biological impacts-including changesin the species Coral reefs havebeen called the "rainforestsof the sea" due to their compositionand abundanceof ecologically impor- biologicalrichness. tant marine animals and plants-with widespread

21 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future social and economic implicationsfor human populations that depend on theseecosystems. Marine fishing contributesenormously to human survivalby supplyingmore peoplewith animal protein than any other source, but the resourceis beingover-used. The world fishingfleet hasdoubled v - since 1970,and 70 percentof the world's commercially important marine fish stocksare fully fished or overexploited.The wild marinefish catchpeaked lI at 82 million tons in 1989,and sincethen hasbeen slowly falling; this decline is leadingto an increased relianceon aquacultureto meetthe demandfor fish for humanconsumption. In turn, increasesin aquaculture are contributingto declining water quality in coastalareas and the loss of natural habitat,which - is converted to fish and seafood farms. Maintaining . present average per-capita consumption of seafood . 9 . - in the face of humanpopulation growth will require approximately20 million additional tons of seafood caused by POPsinclude declines in bird popula- annually by 2010. tions due to eggshellthinning, poisoning of many aquatic and terrestrialorganisms, and the accumu- Persistentorganic pollutants lation of pesticides in the fatty tissuesof marine Persistentorganic pollutants (POPs) are human- mammals.People exposed to high levels of these made compounds such as dioxins, DDT, PCBs, toxic chemicalsalso have suffereda wide rangeof healtheffects. Most toxaphene,dieldrin, and hexachlorobenzene.They cotmnedbhehmiasat risk arehumans who eat food are used as pesticidesand in industrial processes, y or aregenerated as by-products of combustion.Their The RotterdamConvention on the Prior In- chemicalstructure allows them to persistin the en- formed ConsentProcedure for Certain Hazardous Chemicalsand Pesticidesin InternationalTrade was vironment, resistingnatural degradation.They can signed in 1998, and there are ongoing talks spon- be carried long distancesby winds and water cur- soted by United Nations Environment Program rentsand in migratinganimals, and can build up in (UNEP)on establishingan internationalPOPs treaty; the tissuesof living organismsto harmful levels. a secondround of negotiationsis scheduledto be POPsaccumulate in the fatty tissuesof a wide held in February1999. A number of governments rangeof organisms,particularly predators at the top have bannedthe useof theseorganic compounds of the food chain. Someof thesecompounds have becauseof their toxicity and environmentalpersis- been shown to causecancers and birth defects,in- tence. However, some POPs, such as DDT and crease infertility, and interfere with endocrine, PCBs,are still widely used in parts of the world, hormonal, and immune systemfunctioning. Well- and stockpilesof old chemicals have been left to documented examples of the damageto wildlife seep into the environment.Even when the sources

22 Global EnvironmentalIssues

of chemicalsare eliminated, thesecompounds can cycle through living organismsfor decades. Internationalscientific assessments

Thescientific bases for theselinkages have been LINKAGES AMONG THE ENVIRONMENTAL drawn from international scientific assessments ISSUES thathave been conducted over the past10 years, involving thousandsof expertsfrom academia, Humansocieties havetaditioallyagovernments,U.N. agencies,industry, and envi- Humansocieties have traditionally addressedeach ronmentalnongovernment organizations. Some environmental issue in isolation. A better under- key internationalscientific assessments include standingof the linkagesamong these different issues the following: is necessaryif we are to avoid making decisions UNEP/WMOIntergovernmental Panel on Cli- mateChange: 1990, 1992,1995, 1997,1998 that simply benefit one environmental issueat the (third assessmentreport to be completed in 2001) FIGURE I I : UNEPIWMOStratospheric Ozone Depletion: 1981, 1985, 1988, 1989, 1991, 1992, 1994, Linkagesamong environmental issues and 1998 UNEPGlobal BiodiversityAssessment: 1995 Ozone Depetion Gt ipt UNEPAWMO:Interactions of Desertificationand Less Impact Climate,1996

. Equ.1 np-ct UN/SEI:Comprehensive Freshwater Assess- ment,1997 FAO/UNEP:Forests Resources Assessment (1990;second assessment under preparation) (::C~Ii--teCl BiodiversityLoss FAO:State of World Fisheriesand Aquaculture, ( CiimateChange c,* ( Biodiversity LOsS,) 1996 t _1De.. Group of Expertson ScientificAspects of Ma- rine Pollution (GESAMP)Assessment on Land-BasedActivities and Their Impactson the MarineEnvironment (to becompleted in 1999) GESAMPState of the MarineEnvironment As- Desertifkation 44 Water 44 Forestry sessment(to be completed in 2000) UNEPGlobal InternationalWater Assessment (to becompleted in 2002) POPs Assessment(under preparation). Theseinternational assessments, in turn, have expenseof others(see figure 11).The following sec- beenbased on theadvances in understandingthat tioilusraesurenscintfiunerti ohave resultedfrom the planningand implemen- tion Illustratescurrent scientific understanding of 9 the ~~tationtto offalrenme a large number offntoa national andn linkagesamong global issues(see box D). internationalprograms of scientificresearch over the last 25 years.These include the World Cli- mate Research Program, the International Climate change, lossof biologicaldiversity, Geosphere-BiosphereProgramme, and Diversitas. and forestry There are a number of feedbackloops in the inter- including forests;and changesin the structureand actionsamong climate, biodiversity, and forests.For functioning of forestsaffect the Earth'sclimate sys- example,changes in climate affect the boundaries, tem through changes in biogeochemical cycles, composition,and functioning of ecologicalsystems, particularlycycles of carbon and nitrogen.

23 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

How changesin climate affect biological easwhere the type of ecosystemdoes not change- diversity, forests, and aquatic ecosystems a forestremains a forest-there maybe largechanges Climate,biological diversity, and forestshavealways in speciesdistribution and lossesin biological di- beeninextricably linked. As climatewarms, species versity at the species level (see figure 12). The will migratetoward higherlatitudes and altitudesin IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Changepro- both hemispheres,and the speciescomposition and jectedthat with a sustainedincrease in meansurface functioning of the ecosystemswill change in re- temperatureof only 2 to 3 degreesCentigrade- sponsetochangingclimaticconditionsandincreases which is a smaller increase than many climate in the abundanceof carbondioxide. Theamount of models predict with doubled carbon dioxide lev- carbon dioxide in the air affectsthe physiological els-there would bechanges in speciescomposition functioningof plants,particularly the efficiencywith in aboutone-third of the current forestareas of the which they usewater. Recently developed computer world. Thesechanges would affect one-seventhof modelsof ecosystembehavior under changedcli- the currenttropical forestand two-thirdsof current mateconditions and increasedcarbon dioxide shew boreal forestedareas. largechanges in the distribution,composition, and Questionsexist about how quickly forestspe- abundanceof major biomes(see figure 13). cies will be able to adapt to the projected rapid If the climate changesrapidly, as projected, changesin climatic conditions. Ecologicalmodels mismatchesmay occur betweenthe new climatic suggestthat the boundariesof ecological systems conditionsand plantsthat haveadapted to current could move poleward by 150 to 650 kilometers conditionsover the courseof centuries.Even in ar- during the next century;this is more rapid than the

FIGURE 12

Current GDL GISS range scenario ,,,scenario

Currentgrowth Projectednew growth

GFDL - GeophysicalFluid DynamicsLaboratory GISS - Goddard Institute for Space Studies Source:U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

24 GlobalEnvironmental Issues

FIGURE 13 Changes in ecosystems

MAPSS -Major world biomes, current climate

MAPSS -Major world biomes, GFDL future climate scenario

Tundra, Taiga-Tundra, Ice v : I Boreal Forests DTemperate Forests

g Tropical Forests

* Savannas,Dry Forests,Woodlands

LiGrasslands, Shrublands, Deserts

Source:Adapted from: Neilson, R.P and D. Marks, 1994: A global perspective of regional vegetation and hydrologic sensitivities from climatic change.Journal of Vegetation Science,5, 715-730.

25 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

migration ratesof 4 to 200 kilometersper century a sufficient pace to survive a 15 to 95 centimeter achievedby tree speciesafter the retreatof the last sea-levelrise over the next century, a sustainedin- ice age.Although migrationrates may be sufficient creaseof severaldegrees Centigrade would threaten to keep up with projectedclimate changesin areas the long-termviability of many of thesesystems. of continuousforests, it is unlikely that many spe- How changesin land useand forestsaffect cies will be able to migratethrough the sparseand climate fragmentedforest patches that are now typical in so Replacinga forestwith agricultural fields changes many parts of the world. There is a concern that the energyand water balanceof the landscape,gen- temporarydiebacks may occur in a number of spe- erally resultingin higher surfacetemperatures due cies prior to re-establishment,accompanied by large to reductionsin evapotranspiration.Local and re- releasesof carbon dioxide that would further accel- gional climate canbe affectedquite strongly,as less eratethe rateof climatechange. The diebacks would water is releasedinto the air through evapotranspi- have a wide array of ecological and economic rationto form clouds that can producerain. impacts. Theselocal changesalso can have regional and Aquatic ecosystems,particularly coral reefs, global effects.The conversionfrom forestto crops mangroveswamps, and coastal wetlandsare vul- resultsin a net releaseof carbonto the atmosphere nerable to changes in climate (see figure 14). In due to a decreasein abovegroundliving biomass, principle, coral reefs-the mostbiologically diverse aswell asthe oxidationof organicmatter in the soils as they are cultivated and exposedto the air. This marine systems-are potentially vulnerable toy carbon increasesthe overall atmosphericconcen- changesin both sea level and ocean temperature. traon ofcre asesthe reby exaceng While most coral systemsshould be able to grow at the greenhouseec. e tribu ti nd the greenhouse effect. The contribution of land-use changesto global emissionsof greenhousegases FIGURE 14 varieswith changingpatterns of land-use.Currently, Lossof coastalwetiands.. emissionsof carbondioxide from deforestationand 30 other land-usechanges contribute about25 percent . 25 of total global carbon dioxide emissionsfrom hu-

CD(cn 2020- |man activities. o Global greenhousegas emissions could also -7 15 1 be affectedby climate-inducedchanges in the structure and functioningof ecologicalsystems, resulting 5 - - in large amountsof carbon being releasedto the 2020s 2050s 2080s atmosphere.Fluxes of methaneand nitrous oxide, Percentageadditional losses of coastalwetlands due to the sea- two potent greenhousegases, may also increase level risescenario assuming low-loss (left bar)and high-loss from these climate-inducedchanges in ecological (right bar) scenarios. (righ bar)scnarsystems,further acceleratingclimate change.As a Source:R. Nicholls,Middlesex University in the U.K. MeteorologicalOffice. 1997.Climate Changeand Its Impacts:A GlobalPerspective. Brittanic Crown result of increasingtemperatures, melting perma- Copyright, frost could lead to very large releasesof carbon to

26 Global EnvironmentalIssues the atmospherein the form of methaneand carbon Climate changeand water resources dioxide.In addition,reductions in forestcover would One of the mostimportant impacts of climatechange increaselocal albedo and decreaserates of evapo- is alterationof the global hydrologicalcycle, upon ration and evapotranspiration,with a tendency to which we depend for freshwatersupplies. There is makethe localand regionalclimates hotterand drier. no doubt that in a warmer world there will be an Currently,emissions of carbon dioxide result- intensification of the hydrological cycle, with an ing from land-use changes in the tropics are increasein precipitation and evapotranspirationon approximatelybalanced by an increaseduptake of a global scaleand changesin patternsof whereand carbonby the largeareas of regrowingforests in the when precipitation falls (see figure 15). Unfortu- Northern Hemisphere.Higher atmosphericcarbon nately, current climate models cannot provide an dioxide concentrations and deposition of atmo- accuratepicture of how water resourceswill change spheric nitrogen may even enhancethe growth of at the local level. Most models suggestthat there theseforests. Yet continued clearingof the world's will be an increasein winter precipitation, an in- forestswould reduce the global sink from forest crease in the amount of water falling in heavy growth,further increasingthe rateof climatechange. precipitation events(more than 5 centimetersin 24

FIGURE 15 Observedchange in annualprecipitation for the 2050s

The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s comparedwith the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increasein greenhousegas concentrations equivalent to about 1% increaseper year in CO2. This illustration shows the averageof four model runs with different starting conditions.

450NK900

90 i L_=__-___n ______.Ls~s~.~ -- 180° 900W oo 900 E 1800 s

-3 -2 - 0 1 2 3 Precipitationchange (mm day'1)

Source:R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Changeand Its Impacts: A Global Perspective. Brittanic Crown Copyright.

27 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

hours),and an increasein evaporationand evapo- Biodiversity,forest loss,and water resources transpiration. Hence, in many regionsincreases in both floods and droughtsare likely, and manyareas Lossesof biodiversitycan take many forms, one of that are arid and semi-aridtoday will be even drier which is the large-scaleloss of habitat that results in the future-all of which could decreaseavailable from conversionof foreststo agricultural lands.This water supply (seefigure 16). changefrom treesto crops affectsmany biophysi-

cal and biogeochemical processes. For example, FIGURE 16 cultivated soils generallyhave a lower water-hold- Changein water stress ing capacity than the foreststhat precededthem. Changein water stress,due to climatechange, in countriesusing Sucha reduction in water-holdingcapacity results more than20% of their potentialwater resources. in more flooding, as water movesoff the fields and into rivers and streamsat a much faster rate. In-

-~ )_ K; . t creasedflooding leads to a greaterneed for managing the flow of rivers,including dam building, to avoid flood damageand maintainwater supply in periods of reducedflow. The conversionof foreststo fields also usuallyresults in greaterloss of topsoil through 2020s- erosion, partly becauseof the change from perennial treesto annual crops.The topsoil also is more ~~r . vulnerableto erosiondue to an associateddecrease in organic matterand the number of roots capable of holding the soil, aswell asthe physicaleffects of plowing. The eroded soil can quickly enter waterways, leading to further degradation of water resourcesas a result of forestconversion. The loss

2050s - of deep-rootedtrees also reducesthe amount of water that is able to infiltrateto deepersoil layers. Lossof forestbiodiversity can resultfrom habi-

- 2 9 5 tat loss,fragmentation, and over-harvestingof plant and animal species.These losses of particular species in forests may not have the immediate or dramaticeffects that large-scaleconversion to other - > ;1 > v ' usesmay have. However, the loss of speciesrich-

2080s C - ness can increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystemsto other environmental stresses,such * Stressedcountry with C Countrymoves to Stressedcountry with increasein stress stressclass decreasein stress asdisease, pollution, wind, and flooding. If keystone speciesare lost, dramatic reorganizationsof entire Source:N. Arnell andR. King,University of Southamptonin the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997.Climate Change and Its Impacts:A GlobalPerspective. Brittanic Crown forest ecosystems can occur, changing the ecosys- Copyright. tem serviceson which humansdepend.

28 GlobalEnvironmental Issues

While the risks of adversechanges to forests reducethe rate of climate change,but also would are high, given currenttrends, some forest manage- increaseagricultural productivity in theseareas. mentstrategies could stopthe releaseof carbon,and Changesin climate, in turn, can intensify de- even increase its capture, by increasing forest sertificationand land degradation.These processes growth.Such sustainability strategies have the added are exacerbatedby variationsin weather, and cli- benefitof preservinghabitat, thus favoring the main- matechange can increasesuch variability. If climate tenanceof biodiversityand increasingthe ability of changecontinues unabated,the potential increase the landscapeto retainwater, consequently protect- in the frequency and intensity of droughts would ing against flooding and moderating the local reinforce the vulnerability of dryland ecosystems, climate.Managing forest ecosystems wisely canthus increasingrates of desertificationand further threat- yield multiple environmentalgains. eningthe securityof foodand fiber suppliesin many regions.If morevegetation were removed from these Desertification and its linksto other global dryland areas,available soil moisturewould also issues be reduced. Runoff would occur more frequently Climate changeand higher ratesof land degrada- and the soil would dry out morequickly. Decreases tion/desertification can exacerbate each other in vegetationcover also would lead to increased through positive feedbacks.These interactionsare soil erosion,reducing agricultural production while likely to have strongnegative impacts on land pro- increasingsiltation ratesof reservoirsand decreas- ductivity, food supply,biodiversity, and fresh-water ing freshwateravailability. availability, particularlyin dry regions. Finally, the biodiversityof dryland areasis di- Desertificationand land degradationcan con- rectly threatened by desertification and land tribute to local warming by reducing plant cover degradation.As agricultural productivitydecreases and increasingsoil exposure, which changesthe on existingfarms, there is increasedpressure to con- energybalance of an area. Given the largearea of vert more natural ecosystemsto agricultural uses, degradeddrylands, the net impact of these local and thus destroythe habitatof animalsand plants. shiftsin energybalance can be felt on a regionalto If ratesof desertificationaccelerate because of cli- global scale. matechange, the lossof biodiversityin theseregions Deserts,semi-arid lands, and dry woodlands will alsoaccelerate. This isa criticalconcern for food also constitute a large potential sourceof carbon supplies,as almostall of the globally importantce- emissionsinto the atmosphere.The drylands of the real grainsoriginate from drylands.The lossof the world store240 billion tons of organic carbon in geneticforebears of thesecritical food plantscould their soils and vegetation-40 times the amount of impair our ability to adapttheir genometo accom- carbon releasedby humansfrom fossil depositsev- modatea changingenvironment. ery year.Vigorous effortsto control desertification would not only ensurethat existingcarbon in these Stratosphericozone depletion,climate change, ecosystemsis maintained, but could lead to net and biodiversity annualcarbon sequestration. Such a shift in the car- Stratosphericozone depletion and climate change bon storageof dryland areaswould not only help to are connectedin three primaryways. First,many of

29 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future the samegases affect the ozone layer and contrib- Stratosphericozone depletion affects terrestrial ute to the greenhouseeffect. Someof the gasesthat and aquatic ecosystemsthrough its influence on chemically affect stratosphericozone-chlorofluo- surfaceultraviolet radiation.UV-B radiationdirectly rocarbons(CFCs), methane, and nitrousoxide-are and indirectly affectsthe physiological and devel- more powerfulgreenhouse gases, on a per-molecule opmentalprocesses of plants,thus influencing plant basis,than is carbon dioxide. CFCsand nitrousox- growth, plant form, and the biomass allocation ide are of particularconcern in terms of their effect within plants.The responseof plantsto UV-Bvaries on the radiative balanceof the atmosphere,due to considerablyamong species and amongcultivars of their long lifetimes. In addition, greenhousegases the samespecies. In agriculturalsystems, an increase cool the stratosphereand enhance the chemical in UV-Bradiation will necessitateusing cultivars more destructionof ozone by chlorinatedand brominated tolerantto UV-B; in grasslandsand forests,such an chemicals,thus extendingthe expectedtime needed increasewill likely resultin changesin speciescom- for the recoveryof the stratosphericozone layer by position, with implications for biodiversity. a decade or more. Second,reductions in ozoneconcentrations in Ecosystem-leveleffects, such as changesin competi- the lower stratospherecool the atmosphereat those tive balance, herbivory, plant pathogens, and .- ~~~biogeochemicalcycles, also are expected. Increased altitudes,and partly offsetthe warming in the lower troposphere.Third, depletion of stratosphericozone levels of UV-B radiation reducethe production of leadsto an increasein the level of ultraviolet-B(UV- marine phytoplankton, which are predominantly B) radiation reachingthe Earth'ssurface, which can found in high latitudesand upwelling areason the affectterrestrial and aquaticbiogeochemical cycles- continentalshelves. Phytoplankton is the foundation thus altering both sourcesand sinks of greenhouse of aquaticfoodwebsandamajorsinkforatmospheric gasesand chemically important trace gases.These carbondioxide. UV-B radiationalso has been found potential changesto atmosphere-biosphereinterac- to causedamage to fish, shrimp, crabs,amphibians, tions could either mitigate or reinforce the andother marineanimals duringtheirearly develop- atmosphericbuild-up of thesegases. mentalstages.

30 -~~~~~' v ' L ~~~~~~~~~~PartIII

MEETING HUMAN NEEDS WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENTAL ENVELOPE

HUMAN APPROPRIATIONAND with preparingforaglobal populationthat manipulationof the Earth'sresources pro- is growing at the rate of about 80 million duce the materialsand servicesthat we people per year, and is expected to in- always have depended on to fulfill our creaseby 50 to 70 percentby the middle basic needsand our aspirationsfor a bet- of the next century. terqualityof life. Thesimpleactof fulfilling This section of the report explores these human needsalways hashad some how efforts to meet a series of basic environmental impacts. In some cases, humanneeds influence the global environ- thoseimpactshavegrowntothepointthat ment, often causing or accelerating they are underminingour environmental degradationat scalesfrom local to global. life supportsystem. It also examineshow global environmen- This environmental degradation tal problemscreate feedbacks that undercut poses a dual set of challenges:reducing the measuresemployed to meet human current human impacts on the environ- needs.Finally, for each of the sectorsex- ment while ensuring that people have plored, the section reviews the potential equitableaccess to resourcesto meettheir for "win-win" strategiesthat could simul- needs.Meeting these challenges will mean taneouslyhelp to meetbasic human needs that the very poor get a fair shareof the and protectthe environment. world's ecologicalgoods and services. People need adequate food, clean MEETING THE DEMAND FOR FOOD water and energy,sanitation, safe shelter, education,and satisfyingwork. In addition The demandfor food is a pressingconcern to meeting today's needs,we are faced in the face of global population growth. Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

As the human population grows and standardsof creasesflooding, asthe new agriculturalsystems re- living increase,the needfor food will continue to tain lessprecipitation than did the forests.Extending grow along with them. cultivation into naturalhabitats can lead to the fragmentationof remainingintact habitats;proliferation Effectsof agriculturalproduction on the global of invasive,weedy species;and degradationof soils. environment Intensificationof crop production can involve Paststrategies for increasingagricultural production a variety of chemical treatments,the mostcommon have included converting wildlands to croplands of which are nitrogenfertilizers, both syntheticand (extensification), using chemical fertilizers to in- natural.The side effectsof applying thesefertilizers creaseyields (intensification),and using irrigation includethe releaseof nitrogengases (some of which to increaseyields or enablecultivation of otherwise are stronggreenhouse gases) to the atmosphereand non-arableland. Increasingfood production in the nitrogenrunoff into watersheds.Nitrogen runoff is future will requiresome combination of thesestrat- consideredcarcinogenic at high levelsand can cause egies,each of which haverisks that will needto be eutrophication,depleting oxygen in freshwatereco- minimized by careful management(see figure 17). systems. Irrigation is another strategyfor increasingag- Expandingthe land undercultivation resultsin a loss ricultural production.Expanding irrigation systems, of biodiversity,as diverse ecosystems are converted however, increasesthe demand for freshwater, in to fields growing only a few species(usually exot- some casesleading to shortagesand conflict over ics). When forest systems are converted to water-userights. If poorly managed,especially on agricultural uses,a net loss of carbon to the atmo- thin soils in semi-aridor arid climates,extensive ir- sphereaccompanies the deforestation,as treesare rigationcan leadto land degradationand salinization replacedby grassesor crops. This clearingalso in- of soils. Any strategyfor meeting the need for in-

FIGURE 17 Linkagesamong food productionand global environmental issues

Climate ~change Unsustainabl

Nitrogen Through loss fertilizatlon and fragmentation \ \ / ~~~Through\of habitat extensificatlon Through hydrologic Biodiversity and CO, changes l

Food SUPPl Thoghls of crop and demand diversity

Through fertility loss Through salinization

32 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope creasedagricultural production hasthe potentialto enhance crop productivity, if nutrients and water increaseglobal ratesof biodiversity loss, climate are in adequatesupply. Thesephysical and physi- change,and desertification. ological influences may interact in the future to identify which regionsare suited for intensiveagri- Effectsof globalenvironmental issues on food culture, resulting in generally poleward shifts of production agricultural productivity in the mid-latitudes.These Global environmentalchanges will havea number changescould have strong adverseeffects on the of impactson agricultural productivity, which is al- capacityof many regionsand evensome nationsto ready limited by climatic factors such as water feed themselves.There may be increasedrisk of availability (suchas quantity and timing of rainfall hungerand famine in some locations-particularly relativeto crop development)and the lengthof the in subtropicaland tropical areasdependent on iso- growing season.The most recent IPCCassessment latedagricultural systems such as sub-Saharan Africa; concluded that, while climate-inducedchanges in south,east, and southeastAsia; tropical areas of Latin global agricultural productivity are unlikely to be America; and some Pacific island nations (see largein comparisonwith overall production(due in figure 19). partto the availability of adaptationoptions, see fig- Agriculturefaces another threat stemming from ure 18), changes in the climate system and the need to feed a growing human population: a atmosphericCO 2 concentrationsmay haverelatively loss of geneticdiversity among agricultural crops, large regional effectson agricultural productivity. with potentiallynegative effects on agriculturalsus- Changesin temperatureand precipitation patterns tainability. Intensive agriculture relies on heavy may restrictagriculture in some areasand benefit applicationsof fertilizersand pesticidesto largear- others;and a large body of researchdemonstrates easof geneticallysimilar monocultures.However, that higher atmosphericconcentrations of CO2 can thesemonocultures are susceptibleto outbreaksof

FIGURE 18 Effectson agriculturalproductivity with different levelsof adaptation

15 CHANGE BASE GLOBAL=3286 MMT; DEVELOPED=1449MMT; DEVELOPING-1836 WMT

12,- _

GISS GFDL UKMO *GLOBAL EIDDEVELOPEOUOEVELOPING

Source:C. Rosezweigand M Parry. 1994. 'PotentialImpacts o Climate Changeon World food Supply.'Nature, 367:133-138.

33 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

FIGURE 19 geneticmodification of food cropsand animals,al- Projectedcrop yield changes -2020 to 2080 though much remainsuncertain and controversial about the effectivenessof thesetechniques. The availability of water for irrigation limits agriculturalproductivity in manysemi-arid and arid regions. As the population-driven competition for different usesof water grows fiercer, the useof water for agricultural production will needto become more efficient (sometimesincluding the choice of less water-demanding crops). Environmental changes-including land clearingfor agriculturalex- pansion-that influencethe distributionof rainwater and runoff and the rechargeof undergroundaqui- fers can have both short-termand long-termeffects on the sustainabilityof agriculturalproduction on a regionalscale.

lo> w Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits Clearly, sustainableagriculture can have multiple benefitsfor both the environmentand food production. Options for increasing the sustainability of agriculture include more efficient useof resources such as water, fossil fuels, and land; maintaininga broadagrobiodiversity base; adoption of traditional, low-inputagricultural technologies where appropri-

Yh Idange (%)

.40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 ' . $ -" Source:M. Parry,et aL.in the U.K. MeteorologicalOffice. 1997. ClimateChange and Its Impacts:A GlobalPerspective. Brittanic Crown Copyright..

pests and diseasethat develop resistanceto pesticidesand chemicals;this increasein susceptibility, in turn, increasespressure to use more pesticides-

and herbicidesto maintainhigh levelsof productiv- 4 i- ity. In the longer term, the loss of genetic diversity in crops meansthe lossof geneticstock from which to breedmore productiveand/or more resistantva-

rieties of plants and animals. This decline in genetic ...... u . stock may be partially offset by new techniquesof

34 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope ate; and investingin improvedagricultural technolo- One example of a technology with multiple gies (see box E). Emerging biotechnologies can benefitsis no-till agriculture,which can increasecrop improve agriculturalyields and strengthencrop re- productivity, improve the water-holding capacity sistance to diseases, insects, and drought, thus and resistanceto erosionof soils, and increasecar- reducingthequantities of water,land, and chemicals bon storage.These benefits increase the overall neededto maintainand increasefood production. sustainabilityof agricultural systems.Other emerg-

Guidancefor 'win-win' projects-Land management The goal of integratedland managementis to optimizethe combinationof economicand environmental benefitsthe land canprovide, while preservingor increasingthe futureproductivity of the land. Elementsof an integratedapproach to land managementinclude:

Involvementof and interactionamong stakeholders, including decisionmakers, land managementplan- ners,land users,and landowners Obtaininginformation about the physical,social, and economicconditions of the land areain order to evaluatecurrent land conditionsand futurepotential Identificationof land planningunits for determiningland-use options, potential long-term economic re- turns,nutrient input and output,and predictedsocial, economic, and environmentalimpacts Agreementamong stakeholders on the optimumland-use and managementsystem for eachland-planning unit Establishmentof infrastructureneeded for implementationof agreed-uponland usesand long-termland management. Constraintsto integratedland managementinclude limited accessto appropriateinformation and technology, weaknessesin institutionalinfrastructure, unsustainable land-use practices, and conflicts among different land-usegoals. Methods that havebeen successful at eliminatingthese constraints include: Intra-and inter-governmentalcooperation Full participationof and cooperationamong different administrative units and affected jurisdictions Neutraladministrative structure, independent administration, or rotatingleadership to avoiddomination by anysingle partner Provisionof legalprotection for the intellectualproperty rights of participants. Private-publicpartnerships Successfulinvestment programs based on communitylending and women's cooperatives Corporatefellowship programs Incentivesto help developmarkets for sustainablyproduced products. Targetedtraining and technologysupport programs Localtraining programs for developmentof skillsto sustainnew land-useand managementpractices, and training in the usesof appropriatetools and technologies Localtraining programs for datacollection, monitoring, and assessment of the effectivenessand impactsof differentland-use practices. Directpublic investmentin resourceprotection Direct investmentsby variouslevels of governmentin specificland usesthat supportthe economiesof marginalareas Establishmentof researchinstitutions that addressspecific problems of marginalregions, such as issues relatedto sustainableagriculture, forestry, mining, and useof other resources.

35 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future ing technologiesin the industrializedworld-such MEETINGDEMANDS FOR FIBER AND WOOD as precisionagriculture, in which satellite and GIS technologiesare used by farmersto targetapplica- Demandsfor fiber and wood productsare growing tions of chemicals-can result in greatly increased steadily, fueled by a growing population and de- efficiency in the use of agricultural fertilizers and mands for a better quality of life. In the future, ...... pesticides,thus enablingyields to be maintainedor ~~~~~~~increaseduseof wood and fiber in energy produc- enhanced without increasing the overall use of tion-as an alternative to fossil fuels-will likely . . . ~~~~~~combinewith population and economic growth to chemical additives. These advancedtechnologies frhrine th rate of growthi m result in reducedgreenhouse gas emissions, and at the sametime maintainor increaseagricultural pro- Effectsof fiberand wood production on global duction. In many partsof the world thesehigh-tech environmental issues solutionsare not appropriate,and other traditional Meeting human demandfor fiber and wood prod- approachesare more likely to succeed.In several ucts resultsin a net releaseof carbondioxide to the developingcountries, governments and community atmosphere,which contributesto climate change. development organizations are joining forces to Harvestingforests results in the replacementof ma- implement strategiesfor promoting rural develop- ture forestsby smaller, younger trees or by other ment and sustainable agriculture that also have types of vegetation-both of which contain much benefitsfor biodiversity, climate, water resources, lesscarbon. It also resultsin a lossof habitatas well and forestconservation. These strategies include sup- as fragmentationof remaining habitat, resulting in port for sustainableintensification and communal declines in biodiversity. Activities undertakento production activities; establishmentof projectsto conserveforests, fisheries, and protectedareas; and developmentof a coherentland-use framework that integratesthese objectives and builds community support. On a global basis,the useof sustainableag ricultural strategiescould resultin cleaneragriculture, with associatedbenefits to water quality, biodiversity, health, and human welfare. The potential crediting of increasesin carbonsequestration in agricultural and pasturelands underArticle 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocolcould provide additional incentives for farmersto move toward more sustainabletech- niques, resulting in economic benefitsas weli as environmentalgains by reducing the threat of cli- matedisruption, biodiversity loss, and increased = . .. .. 7, .1_ desertification.

36 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope meetwood and fiber needsalso can affectlocal en- gest that, at leastin Northern Hemispheretemper- vironmental conditions. For example, they may ate and boreal latitudes, the climate zones for accelerateerosion and topsoil loss by removing temperatedeciduous and boreal forestsgenerally physically stabilizing root systemsand energy-ab- will move poleward.Current temperate deciduous sorbingforestcanopies,andbyreducingthecapacity forestsmay become more savanna-like-drier and of the soils of these systemsto absorb rainwater, grassier-as overall water availability decreases. and hencecontrol the intensity with which it runs Lossof biodiversity as a result of more inten- off, into, and over soil. Increasedrunoff carrieslarge sive managementis likely to makeforest ecosystems amountsof soil into nearbywaterways, decreasing more susceptibleto stressesassociated with other the fertility of the originally forestedlandscape and environmentalproblems. While plant growth may making forestregeneration more difficult. not changesignificantly, ecosystem performance- The overall releaseof carbon, loss of habitat includingtheabilityto resistorrecoverfromdiseases and biodiversity, and effectson soil structure and and pests-will beaffected by reductionsin biologi- fertility from forest harvest depend on the forest- cal diversity. Therefore, even in the absence of management strategies employed. As with climaticchange,loss of diversity is likelytoweaken increasingagricultural production, yields from for- the resilienceof forests, reducing their long-term estscan be improvedby either expandingthe area capacityfor wood and fiber production. harvestedor increasingthe harvestintensity within existing stands.In the caseof commercialforestry, Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits managementchoices can help minimize environ- manaemenchicescanhelpminiizeenvion- Opportunitiesfor more sustainablemanagement of mentalimpacts. Intensifying management of forests Oortuntes f re sutinable managementuof thatarealredyntenivey havesed fr tmberand forestresources are similar to thosefor agriculture. that are al readyintensively harvested for timber and Oebodsrtg st eonz n xli h pulpwillss sver hae imact tha covering One broad strategyis to recognizeand exploit pulp will have lesssevere Impacts than converting mlil ssadsrie-nldn ibrsp the newareas of naturalforestto industrial forestry. How- ever, much of the world's harvestof forestproducts ply, wildlife habitat, recreational resources,and is carried out by small landownersand local resi- watershedmanagement-provided by forestedland. dents, who harvestwood for domestic uses,such Adaptive managementstrategies that seekto maxi- as fuel. The amount of wood harvestedfor these mize a sustainablestream of revenuesfrom multiple usesis increasingglobally, often resultingin the loss usesof the samelandscape can have a lower over- or seriousdegradation of local forestresources, with all environmental impact than intensiveharvesting attendantenvironmental effects. alone.These include strategiesthat increasethe realization of economic value to local communities Effectsof global environmentalissues on fiber from sustainableharvesting of non-timberproducts and wood production (suchas edible and medicinalplants, or resins)from Climate changeand biodiversitylosses, in turn, af- forests.Another approachto recognizingthe mul- fectthe productionof fiber and wood. Bothchanges tiple usesand valuesof forestresources is to create in temperatureand rainfall and increasesin atmo- marketsfor the ecologicalgoods and servicesthey spheric concentrations of CO2 can affect forest provide. For example, opportunities for trading growthand productivity.Computer simulations sug- greenhousegas emissions reductions through joint

37 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future implementation and possibly the Clean Develop- Water is also one of the basicneeds for the survival ment Mechanismenvisioned in the Kyoto Protocol of terrestrialand aquaticecosystems. to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate The number of regions in the world where Changehave the potentialto createmarkets for car- human demands exceed local water supplies is bon sequesteredin forestedlands. growing. Accordingto the 1997 U.N. Comprehen- Efficientcarbon managementin forestecosys- sive FreshwaterAssessment, global water use has temscan havemultiple environmental benefits (such been growing at more than twice the rate of the as mitigationof the greenhouseeffect and improved population increaseduring this century; already a watershedmanagement), as well as economic ben- number of regionsare experiencingchronic water efits (improved productivity). Carbon is stored in shortages.There are currently more than 430 mil- both treesand forestsoils. As reportedby the IPCC lion people living in countries considered 'water in its Second AssessmentReport, the greatestpo- stressed,"i.e., where availability of freshwater per tential for sequesteringlarge amounts of carbon is person per year sinks below approximately1,700 in tropical and sub-tropicalcountries, but this po- cubic meters,leading to chronic and widespread tential depends critically on slowing tropical watershortages. According to someestimates (based deforestationin the nearterm, on UN 1996 medium population projections),the Sincedemand for wood will continue to rise percentageof the world's population in countries as populationgrows, gains in efficiency of harvest- experiencingwater stresscould increasemore than ing and forest management practices also could be important.There is potential for efficiencyimprove- FIGURE 20 mentsin the harvestingprocess that could decrease Worldpopulation in freshwaterscarcity, stress, andrelative sufficiency in 1995and 2050 the number of treesthat have to be cut to produce the sameamount of timber. Establishmentof effi- 1995- TotalPopulation: 5.7 billion cient plantationson alreadydeforested lands could MediumPopulation Project also help to take the pressureoff remainingprimary forests,particularly if carried out in the contextof a Scarcity3% landscapeapproach to forestmanagement. Stress5%

MEETING DEMANDS FOR WATER 2050 - TotalPopulation: 9.4 billion MediumPopulation Project

Freshwater is essentialfor human health,food production,and sanitation,as well asfor manufacturing Stress248 and other industrial uses. At leastone-fifth of all people do not have accessto safe drinking water, and morethan one-half-particularly those living in andpmorerty-lack onequalfsanticularly tosearulig a t Note:Pie size is proportional to theworld population in the poverty-lack adequatesanitation. As a result,about designatedyear. Source:T. Gardner-Outlawand R. Engelman,1997. Sustaining one-half of the people living in developing coun- Water,Easing Scarcity: A SecondUpdate. Population Action tries suffer from water- and food-relateddiseases. International.Washington, DC.

38 MeetingHuman Needswithin the EnvironmentalEnvelope fivefold, from about8 percent in 1995to some40 sourcesare uncertainat present,all global climate percentin 2050 (seefigure 20). Water scarcity could modelsshow a tendencyto mid-continentalwarm- be one of the major factors limiting our ability to ing and drying, resulting from increased tem- increasefood productionto feed the growing popu- peraturesand evapotranspiration.Some calculations lation. suggestthat reductions in availablesoil moisturemay be equivalent to major agricultural droughts (see Effectsof meetingwater needson figure21). environmental issues Using water resourcesin an unsustainablemanner FIGURE21 can hampereconomic productivity and social de- Percentreduction in June-Augustsoil moisture

velopment in a region. Extracting water from 4xCO2 - - undergroundsources faster than naturecan replen- ish it hascaused aquifers in many regionsto recedeX deeper underground,making continued accessto the water increasinglydifficult and expensive.This - can force people to use lower-quality water sources v . -. L and reducethe undergroundflow of water into riv- l ers. Reductionof availablesurface or underground- water (groundwater)can lead to land degradation | I anddesertification. Groundwater depletion also can - causeland subsidenceand, in coastalareas, lead to t! M .7 ', saltwaterintrusion and contaminationof freshwater

aquifers.Water withdrawalsfrom riversand streams 0 10 20 30 40 s0 60 can lead to reduced flow and periodic drying, with Source:Office of Scienceand Technologyr Policy. Washington, D.C. potentiallynegative effects on aquaticbiodiversity. For regionswhose water suppliesdepend on Effectsof globalenvironmental issues on water dams,both the timing and form of precipitationare Changesin climate are likely to make freshwater important.In regionsthat currentlydepend on moun- managementeven more difficult. Climate change tain snowpackto store water and then releaseit is expectedto alter the overall amount,frequency, during snowmeltinto dammed watersheds, a switch and variability of precipitation around the world. from snow to winter rain could make it harder to Eventhough climatewarmingwill inevitably"speed storesufficientwater in the springto avoid latesum- up" the hydrologiccycle, increasingrates of evapo- mer drought. If the variability or severityof storms rationand amounts of precipitationon a globalscale, increases,as exhibited in some models, many re- the regional distribution of this precipitation may gions may lack the infrastructureto managethe change,leaving someareas much wetter,and oth- supply of water and preventflooding. ers much drier. While projectionsof the regional Conversionof natural ecosystemsto less di- and local effects of climate change on water re- verseagricultural systemsor to suburbanor urban

39 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

tems, is to usewater more efficiently. A fundamental strategyin sustainablewater management, which can assistplanners in achieving more efficient water use,is to integratewater managementgoals into physical, social, and economic planning-including agricultural management, overall land-use planning, forestresource utilization, and protection of coastalzones and marineenvironments from land- basedactivities. Appropriate water-conservationstrategies- such as rainwaterconservation by terracing slopes and different meansof water storage,including underground storage-will differ according to the characteristicsof the region,and are particularlyim- portant in arid areas. Other potential measures include improvementsin irrigation management, such as lining canalsand using high-efficiencyirri- gation systemsto preventland degradationthrough

environmentsreduces the land's ability to absorb and hold precipitation. Convertedareas are often more prone to floods during rainy periods,because - of increasedrates of runoff, and to water scarcity during periodsof low precipitation. One of the undervaluedservices provided by natural landscapes,particularly wetlands, is the fil- tration of wastesfrom and detoxification of runoff before it reacheswaterways. Due to this important ability to purify water, as well as the critical role _ , I played by naturalecosystems in stabilizingsoil and preventingmassive erosion, the lossof suchhabitat (for example, by drainage to convert land to agricul- _ = _ ture) hasdeleterious effects on water quality both in the immediatevicinity of the wetlandloss and downstream. salinizationand waterlogging.Using treated wastewater for irrigationincreases the freshwateravailable Opportunitiesfor multiple benefits for other uses,including the maintenanceof healthy A necessarystep in reducing adverseimpacts on aquatic ecosystems.Decreased, or more efficient, fresh water,as well as on marine and other ecosys- useof fertilizers in agriculturecan reducethe need

40 MeetingHuman Needswithin the EnvironmentalEnvelope for expensivetreatment of water from nearbywater from oil, and 18 percentfrom natural gas).These bodies to make it suitablefor human use. emissions contribute to human-caused climate Efficient and economical water management change.Changes in the climate systemwill in turn neednot be technologicallychallenging. One of the affectbiodiversity and ecologicalsystems, alterations simplest strategiesto improve both water supply that can feed back to the climate system through managementand water quality is the protection of changesin albedo and the ratesat which carbon watershedsthrough maintenanceof naturally veg- and nitrogencycle betweenthe terrestrialbiosphere etated buffer stripsalong streamand river channels and the atmosphere.Fossil fuel burningin the North- and around lakes.Wetland preservationis another ern Hemispherealso hasresulted in largeemissions importantelement of watershedprotection. The re- of sulfateaerosols, which-by blocking someof the sulting gains in water quality and natural water sun'sradiation-slow the rate of increasein global storagecan reduce the need for, and thereforethe surfacetemperature that otherwise would resultfrom costsof, water treatmentand storageinfrastructure increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. downstream. Thesesulfur compoundsare major contributorsto acidificationof watersand soils. MEETING DEMANDS FOR ENERGY, Fossilfuel burning also resultsin the release INDUSTRIAL GOODS, AND EMPLOYMENT of nitrogenousgases, some of which contribute to global warming. Other gasesin this family affectair The world's growing population, with its desirefor qualitythroughchemical reactions in theatmosphere a better quality of life, increasinglyis seekingem- that result in the production of ozone-a primary ployment opportunities in the industrial and componentof smogin the lower atmosphereand a commercialsectors of the economy.The resulting harmful substanceto plants and human respiratory growth in the formal economywill increasedemand systems.These various types of nitrogenouscom- for energy. The outcome of the potential conflict poundsreleased duringfossilfuel burningeventually between growing energy needsand major global wash out of the atmosphereand have resulted in environmental issueswill be determined by deci- substantialnet increasesin nitrogenloading of eco- sionsmade on both aspectsof energymanagement: systems.Highly industrializedregions, such as the demandand supply. easternUnited Statesand westernEurope, have ex- perienced episodesof high nitrogen deposition in Providingenergy, goods, and employment- precipitation,thoughtto be anothercontributor(with Effectson global environmentalissues sulfur compounds)to the regional acidification of By far the most common way to satisfyneeds for surfacewaters. energy in modern societiesis through burning fos- The industrialsector is a major contributor to sil fuelssuch as coal, oil, and naturalgas. Each year, global and regional environmental problems, due this use of fossil fuels releasesbillions of tons of to its high ratesof natural resourceuse and pollu- pollutants-particularly carbondioxide-into the at- tion. Traditional industrial uses of materials are mosphere (some 6 billion tons of carbon were dissipative-the materialsare degraded,dispersed, releasedin 1990,43 percentfrom coal, 39 percent and lost to the economic systemin the courseof a

41 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future single use. This sectoris responsiblefor more than globalenvironmental issues. To the extentthat trans- one-third of global CO2 emissionsfrom energyuse, portation networksdepend on the useof riversand and contributes significantly to total emissionsof inland waterways,the transportationof industrial other greenhousegases. In fact, in 1990 industry goodsto marketsmay be affectedby changesin the accounted for almost half of global CO2 releases hydrologicalcycle that result from climate change. (47 percent)when direct industrialconsumption of There are even fewer direct links betweenthe loss energyand industrial usesof energy arecombined. of biodiversityand effectson industrialproductivity Global industrialenergy use is expected to rise and employment.The conversionof natural habitat 75 percentbythe year 2050, and an increasingpor- is not likely to result in significant increasesin in- tion of the growth is expected to take place in dustrialproduction, sinceindustrial growth is more developing countries.The growth of industrialac- likely to occur in already-urbanizedlandscapes with tivity in developing countrieswill be beneficial in available suppliesof energy,water, and labor. The termsof increasedincome and employmentoppor- sector'sgreatest threat from the loss of biodiversity tunities. However, it also represents potential stemsfrom its relianceon diminishing supplies of increasesin industrial contributions to global, re- wild genetic materialfor the production of agricul- gional, and local environmentalproblems through tural products, medicines, and other products increasesin greenhousegas emissions, liquid and derived from natural sources. solid wastes,local air and water pollution, and resourceconsumption. Opportunitiesfor multiplebenefits Thereare manytechnologies and practicesfor miti- Effectsof globalenvironmental issues on gating the adverseenvironmental impacts of this energyuse and supply,the productionof sector,some of which havemultiple benefits-such goods,and employment as mitigating climate change (seebox F), protect- The effectsof changesin the climate systemon en- ing biodiversityand waterresources, and combating ergy demandare expectedto be relatively modest. desertification.Some of theseoptions might involve If climate changeresults in shiftsin seasonalityand complex tradeoffs among different environmental changesin temperatureextremes, seasonal patterns impacts;for example, some options that improve of energydemand for heatingand cooling may be regional environmental conditions may lead to altered in many regions. On the supply side, the higher GHG emissionsor potential land-usecon- accelerationof the hydrologic cycle that likely will flicts. However, some technologies and practices occur with climate change, and the concurrent havethe potential to yield multiple environmental changesin cycles of precipitationand drought,will and socioeconomicbenefits. changethe availabilityof hydropowerand affectthe Technologicaladvances and decliningcosts for extent of its use-relative to fossil fuel energy-at energy from renewablesources offer new opportu- leaston a regionalbasis. Production of biomassfor nities. In the long term, renewableenergy sources energyalso could be affected. can meet a major part of the world's demand for Industrialsector production and employment energy (seefigure 22). Renewableenergy sources are relativelyinsulated from directeffectsof changes that are used sustainablyhave little or no adverse in the climate system,loss of biodiversity,and other environmental impact and could bring about sub-

42 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope

Strategiesfor reducing greenhousegas emissions Residential, commercial, and institutional Decarbonizeflue gases(scrubbing, coal gasifi- buildings cation) Increaseefficiency of buildingequipment (heat- Switchto renewableenergy sources (biomass, ing and coolingequipment, cooking, lighting, wind energy)or nuclearpower motors) Improvebuilding thermal integrity (insulation Agriculture andsealing, proper orientation) IncreaseC storagein agriculturalsoils (reduce tillage,increase permanent set-aside) Transportation Improvemanagement of ruminantanimals (in- Reducevehicle energy intensity (change vehicle creasefeed digestibility, animal fertility) body/enginedesign, downsize vehicles) PreventCH 4 emissionsfrom animal wastes (use Switch to alternativeenergy sources(com- biogasgenerators) pressednatural gas, hydrogen or electricityfrom Increaseefficiency of nitrogenfertilizer use renewablesources) Improveurban transportation planning (public Forestry and non-motorizedtransport systems) Slowdeforestation Encouragetelecommuting Increaseforestation/agroforestry Adoptsubstitution management practices (bio- Industry electricityproduction from degraded lands, use Use new or improvedtechnologies and pro- sustainably-grownwood) cesses(reduce N20 emissionsfrom nylon production) Solid waste and wastewater Increaseenergy efficiency (more efficient lights, Reducesources of solid waste (recycling, motors,and pumps) composting,incineration) Cogeneration(combined heat and power,gas Recovermethane (from landfills,wastewater turbines/combinedcycle, fuel cells) treatmentplants) Materialsubstitution/recycling/reuse Economic instruments Energysupply Removalor strategicuse of subsidies Improveconversion and transmission efficiency Domestictaxes Switchto low-carbonfuels (from coal and oil to Tradablepermits/quotas naturalgas) Jointimplementation

Trafficmanagement in Santiago,Chile, involves both improvedbus routing and expansion of themetro.

43 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

FIGURE 22 Energysupply- Sustainedgrowth scenario

e x a jo u le s

I5S00 _OS u rp rise OG eoth.

1500 -IA SolBolm5 a r OBBiom a ss 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 OW ind ON u clear

EH yd ro S00 OG as

N iI & NG L

iC oal

0 ETrad Bio. 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Source:Shell International Limited.

stantialreductions in adverseenvironmentalimpacts of toxic pollution in the manufacture,use, and dis- comparedto fossil fuels; for example, by reducing posal of systems.Many applications are already emissions of particulates and associatedhuman cost-competitiveas stand-alonesystems in areas health impacts. Biomasscan be used to produce remotefrom electricalgrids. electricity in a variety of conversionprocesses, in- Over the past decadesenergy efficiency has cluding turbine technology, gasification, biogas been increasing,especially in the more industrialproduction,and direct combustion(see box G). Ap- ized countries. These improvements have been plications of this energy source can vary in scale achievedthrough a wide rangeof measures,such from rural villages to major urban supply systems. as more efficient useof raw materials,use of com- Furtherresearch and developmentwill be required bined heat and power systems, better systems to bring someapproaches to technical maturityand coordination within and among firms, and use of economicalviability. Thereare alsoconcerns about more efficient industrialprocesses. These improve- whether there will be enough land to meetthe de- mentshave led to significantimprovements in local mand for increasedfood production and future and regional environmentalquality, and to lower- bio-energyneeds. Wind energy facilities, such as cost production.Great potential exists to extendthe thosefor electricity production and water pumping, useof such technologiesand practiceswithin de- are commercially available and can be cost- veloped as well as lessindustrialized countries. competitivein somemarkets, although the rangeof A number of available technologiescan in- costsis very wide. Solarenergy options include pho- creasethe efficiency of power production, making tovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal technologies. it possibleto improve the presentworld averageof Generally, solar energy does not have any direct, about 30 percent efficiency to more than 60 per- adverseenvironmental impacts, except in rarecases cent efficiency in the long term, reducingthe need

44 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope

Guidancefor "win-win" projects-Biomassfor energy Sustainablyharvesting biomass for energyrequires ecologically sound management and the useof best managementpractices. Some specific suggestions for ensuringthat biomass-for-energyprojects are successful and sustainableover the long term arelisted below. Usesustainable management practices: Producea mix of crops,where sites and marketsallow, diversifyingthe landscapeand spreadingrisk. Give preferenceto nativespecies and hybridspecies in the samegenus. Encourageperennial energy crops that enhancenutrient cycling and retentionof nutrientson site. Rotatecrops or speciesto reducenutrient depletion or buildup of pestswhere perennial crops are not feasible. Add fertilizersonly asrequired to meetplant uptakerequirements. Minimizetotal chemical-pesticideinputs by usingintegrated pest management practices. Whenharvesting forest or agriculturalresidues, leave sufficient material on the forestfloor/field to control erosionand ensure adequate nutrients for futurevegetation. Where appropriate, return ash and processing residuesfrom biomassconversion facilities to the land assoil amendments. Minimize negativeimpacts on habitatand biodiversity: Harvestingactivities should incorporate regeneration or replantingpractices that will maintainindigenous biodiversitylevels (for example,leave sufficient numbers of largestanding trees that aredead or dying to providehabitat). Minimizefragmentation and improveoverall habitat quality for nativespecies. Match nativespecies types as much as possible(for example,perennial grasses in prairie regions),and emulatenatural vegetation patterns and functions. Encouragegenetic and speciesdiversity of energycrop plantings. Sitesselected to grow energycrops should primarily be cropland;avoid criticalhabitat sites. Schedulefield operationsto minimizedisturbance during critical periodsof animals'life cycles(nesting, winter cover). Delineatebuffer zones (including corridors) for the protectionof wildlife habitat. Minimizenegative impacts on soilsand water: Designharvesting schedules to avoid soil compaction,erosion. Manageenergy crops to increasesoil organic matter content. Useconservation tillage practices where applicable. Delineatebuffer zones for the protectionof water. Considerclimate issues: In speciesselection, consider the ability of cropsto sequestersignificant amounts of carbonthrough roots and othermaterial left on site. Seekpublic acceptance: Incorporateaesthetic and culturalvalues when planningat the regionallevel, to ensurelong-term accep- tanceof a new industry. for additional energygeneration and its associated sult in reducedenvironmental impacts at all scales. environmental costs. Improving the efficiency of A numberofadvanced and newtechnologies-rang- energyproduction and conversionis generally a win- ing from high-temperature gas turbines to fuel win strategy.At relatively low cost,the potentialfor cells-promise even higher efficienciesin the pro- energyefficiency improvementis largeand can reduction and conversion of fossil fuels. Existing

45 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

FIGURE 23 technologiesto reducethe environmental impacts The total industrialecology cycle of energy production include more efficient methods of energy production, and switching to fossil .cyclA4 ------+1- fuels with lower carbon emissions-such as from coal to oil or natural gas,or from oil to naturalgas. I DSE : 'n Another possibleoption in some partsof the world

[ se0

I, !l t forexample,can beachieved through improvements

______> Fbai…I < ------Fin building design,such as reductionof heat-trans- I_\ fer (throughthe useof energy-efficientwindows) and \Additional 3 n proper building orientation to reduce the need for componentsI 0 an I ,mponentcomponents ... R heatingand cooling. Other measuresto reduceen- r mD t | % ergy needsin buildingsand improveenvironmental quality include:urban design and land-useplanning; ~~~~~~~~~>r:Forming:s~~~~~~~~> installing efficient district heating and cooling sys- T: tems; ensuringcorrect installation,operation, and iniser + | _sizing of equipment; and using building energy rials { _management systems. Improvements in energy efficiency can be ------~Eical prepa_a achievedin the transportsector through a varietyof technicaland socialoptions, including improvedgas mileage,higher occupancyrates per vehicle, useof n t public transportation,and improvedtraffic manage- | T mentC, and urban transport system planning. e > ______: - ,,- Encouragingthe useof bicycles and other non-mo- s 10X torizedtransport and improvingtelecommunications can reducetransport energy requirementsas well ncenterateJ | as adverseenvironmental impacts. maTerials Furtherbenefits can be achievedthrough the adoptionof "industrialecology" practices, which are basedon maximizingindustrial efficiency and minimizing wasteand undesirablebyproducts released into the environment(see figure 23). This approach mterials rDisposala aimsto optimizethe total industrialmaterial cycle- from virgin material to finished product to the Source:T. E. Graedeland B. R. Allenby.1995. Industrial Ecology,Prentice Hall. ultimate disposal of waste (see box H).

46 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope

Widespread adoption of modern industrial and reducedloss of speciesdiversity. Regional and ecologyand clean productioncould easea number local benefitsinclude improvementsin surfaceand of global, regional,and local environmentalprob- groundwaterquality, reductionsin urban air pollu- lems. Global environmental benefits include tion, reduced deposition of acid and toxic reducedemissions of greenhousegases and ozone- compounds,and slower ratesof resourcedepletion depleting substances, reduced introduction of and exhaustionof landfills. persistentorganic pollutantsinto the environment, Widespreadadoption of energyefficient and and reduceddemand for primary resources,result- cleanproduction practices will not be possiblewith- ing in diminished pressureon natural ecosystems out overcoming a number of barriers: Low fuel

Guidance for 'win-win' projects-Industrial ecology Theenvironmental performance of industrycan be improved by applyingmodels of the biophysicalenviron- mentto industrialproduction. One emergingconcept for thedevelopment of industrialecology principles is the Eco-IndustrialPark (EIP): communities of manufacturingand service businesses that aim to enhancetheir environmentaland economicperformance through collaboration in managingenvironmental issues and resources-includingenergy, water, and materials.Components of this approachinclude new or retrofitted designof infrastructureand plants,pollution prevention, and energy efficiency. Strategies for designingsuc- cessfulindustrial parks include: Integrationinto NaturalSystems Designthe EIPin harmonywith the characteristicsand constraintsof local ecosystems Minimizecontributions to globalenvironmental impacts, such as greenhouse gas emissions EnergySystems Maximizeenergy efficiency through facility designor rehabilitation,co-generation, and energycascading Achievehigher efficiency through inter-plant energy flows Use renewablesources extensively MaterialsFlows and "Waste'Management Emphasizepollution prevention, especially with toxics Ensuremaximum re-use and recyclingof materialsamong EIP businesses Reducetoxic materialsrisks through integrated site-level waste treatment Linkthe EIPto companiesin the surroundingregion as consumers and generators of usablebyproducts via resourceexchanges and recyclingnetworks Water Designwater flows to conserveresources and reducepollution through strategies similar to thosede- scribedfor energyand materials EffectiveEIP Management Maintaina mix of companiesneeded to bestuse each other's by-products Supportimprovement in environmentalperformance for individualcompanies and the parkas a whole Operatea site-wideinformation system that supports inter-company communications, informs members of localenvironmental conditions, and providesfeedback on EIPperformance ConstructionlRehabilitation New constructionor rehabilitationof existingbuildings should follow best environmentalpractices in materialsselection and building technology, recycling or reuseof materialsand consideration of lifecycle environmentalimplications of materialsand technologies.

47 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future prices, for example, provide little incentive to in- sometimemore diffuse, hazardsto human health vest in high-efficiency energy systems,unless an posed by changesin the planet's biophysical sys- investmentcan bring dramaticcost reductionsin a tems. These hazards include climate change, shorttime. Increasedadoption of industrialecology stratosphericozone depletion, unsustainableuse of would necessitateextensive education in the busi- water supplies,and fragmentationof ecologicalsys- nesssectoraboutthe benefits of thesepractices, and tems, all of which have a bearing on food yields a shift in corporateculture to a new way of doing and the range and transmissionof infectious dis- business. eases.These newer hazardsrefer not just to local, remediable,environmental agents, but to more pro- HEALTH AND SECURITY OF POPULATIONS found changes in life-supporting natural systems. The adventof human-causedclimate change, Among the primary goals of any societyis the pro- depletion of stratosphericozone, land degradation, tection of the physical security, health, and biodiversity loss, and the disseminationof persis- economic well-beingof its members.The links be- tent toxic chemicals all increase risks to human tween these issues and global environmental health.The healthof humanpopulations is affected changes are generally poorly understood. Most by a wide rangeof environmentalconditions and peopleare only vaguelyaware of the environmen- ecologicalservices, including air and water quality, tal impactsof economic developmentand personal food productionand quality, fluctuationsin the ecol- consumption, and often seemto consider the im- ogy of pests and infectious pathogens, and the pacts trivial in comparisonto the benefits. In fact, predictability of weather patterns. In the longer our health and well-beingrest on an environmental term, patternsof human health and diseasewill be platform and depend particularly on the sustained affectedby changesin the geographyof infectious functioning of ecological systems.As we continue (especially insect-borne)diseases, changes in re- to erode that platform, we put our future and that of gional food yields on land and at sea, changesin our children increasinglyat risk. One of the funda- the habitabilityof coastalzones and the occurrence mental reasons for minimizing environmental of extreme weather events, and the social-demo- pollution and sustainingEarth systemprocesses is graphic consequencesof rapid urbanization. to safeguardhuman health. Another important- It is anticipatedthat mostof the impactsof glo- though lessunderstood-reason is to avoid conflicts bal environmental issueson human health would over scarceresources, for example water resources be adverse.Some would occur via relativelydirect in regionssuch as the Middle East. pathways(for example, deaths from heatwaves and from extremeweather events);others would occur Health via indirect pathways(such as changesin the range The focus of concern over environmental hazards of vector-bornediseases). Some impacts would be to human health hastraditionally been in relation deferredin time and would occur on a larger scale to chemical and microbial contamination of air, than mostother environmentalhealth impactswith water, soil, or food. While these remain important which we are familiar. Populationswith different issues,we must now also addressthe larger-scale, levels of natural, technical, and social resources

48 MeetingHuman Needswithin the EnvironmentalEnvelope would differ in their vulnerability. Suchvulnerabil- reservoirscreated by the damsalso provided breed- ity, due to crowding, food insecurity, local and inggroundsfordisease vectors, resulting in increases regionalenvironmental degradation, and perturbed in Rift Valley fever and schistosomiasis.Regional ecosystems,already exists in many locations. warming hasbeen associatedwith malaria moving Direct effectscould include an increasein car- to higher altitudes in easternAfrica over the past diorespiratorymortality and illnessfrom heatwaves. two decades.Finally, the rapid dissemination of Studies in selected urban populations in North cholera in coastal Peruvian populations in 1991 America, North Africa, and EastAsia indicate that seemslikely to have been due to the widespread the number of heat-relateddeaths would increase presenceof cholerabacterium in the local fish catch, several-foldin responseto future climate, as mod- following the increasein coastal algal blooms (a eled by two generalcirculation modelsfor 2050. naturalreservoir for the cholerabacterium) that were Another example of an increasedhealth risk present in the region, due to the combination of attributableto large-scaleenvironmental change is coastal-waterwarming and nutrient-rich wastewa- the recent shifts in patternsof some infectiousdis- ter runoff. eases(see figure 24). Forexample, recent agricultural Malaria providesan instructiveexample of an expansion into previously forestedareas in South important vector-borneinfectious disease that can America hasresulted in new viral hemorrhagicfe- be influenced by various types of global environ- vers, spread among humans by rodents or mentalchange. Malaria currently causes around 350 mosquitoes.Although the building of largedams in million new infections annually (including 2 mil- Egyptand Senegalbrought economic benefits,the lions deaths),predominately in tropical countries.

FIGURE 24 Vector-borne diseases Likelihoodof Population altered at risk distribution Disease Vector (millions) Presentdistribution with warming

Malaria mosquito 2,100 (sub)tropics vV Schistosomiasis watersnail 600 (sub)tropics Filariasis mosquito 900 (sub)tropics V Onchocerciasis black fly 90 Africa/LatinAmerica (river blindness) African tsetsefly 50 tropical Africa trypanosomiasis (sleepingsickness) Dengue mosquito unavailable tropics Yellow fever mosquito unavailable tropical South America& Africa

Likely V Very likely VV Highly likely /V

Source:WHO, as cited in Stone (1995).

49 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

The rapid clearing of forestsin tropical and sub- of skin cancerspeaking at around 5 percentduring tropical regions,especially when clearedfor agri- the third quarterof the coming century,entailing an culture, can result in increasesof habitatsuitable extra 100 cases/millionper year (vs. current back- for a variety of diseasevectors, especially mosqui- ground of 2000 cases/millionper year), assuming toesthattransmitmalaria. In somesettings, however, ratesand levelsof ozone depletion consistentwith forestclearance may reducethe habitatof the prin- implementationof the Copenhagenamendments to cipal local species of mosquito that transmits the Montreal Protocol.There is someevidence that malaria.Simultaneously, the opening up of cleared increasedexposure to UV-B radiationcan also re- land providesthe opportunityfor large-scalemigra- sult in decreased immune system performance, tion and colonization of these regionsby human which would increasesusceptibility to infectious populationsthat may lack resistanceto malariaand diseasesand perhapsto certaincancers. thus providedramatic increases in host availability. NationalSecurity The net result is an increasein transmissionrates and population-levelmorbidity, due almostentirely Protectionof nationalsecurity has always beenone to land-usechange. of the most basicfunctions of nationalgovernment. Malaria hashistorically been a diseaseof tropi- Securityagainst conflict and aggressionis a precon- cal, sub-tropical,and warm temperateclimates. Its dition for the effective provision of other human currentgeographic distribution represents a balance needs.The establishmentof a strong military and between the climatic requirementsof malaria-car- effectiveinternational security alliances has histori- .ying mosquitoesand the abcally beenthe solefocus of governmentpolicies for rying~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~moqiosadteaiiyo.aiu oite providing that security. We are just beginning to to control the insectsthrough the useof pesticides provid tha curity We aetjust nning to and other controland thercontolmeasures.masues. Underndercondtion conditions of understandthe crucial links betweennational secu- climate change,the potential rangeof mosquitoes rity and the environment.Some of these links are so strongthat in some regionsof the world, envi- and of the malariaparasite will extendto higherlati- ronmentalconcerns could logically be considered tudes and higher altitudes-including into regions nonal securit isues Som ioal goveren with no previoushistory of, and limited defenses hatalised speca goup sol tovmonto have established special groups solely to monitor against, malaria.Climate-related increases in ma- environmentaltrends, which they contend could laria incidencehave been projected to be ashigh as lead to conflict in someregions. 50 to 80 million additional casesannually, prima- Global environmentalissues can have a ma- rily in tropical, subtropical,and lesswell-protected jor influenceon the securityof nationsbecause they temperatezone populations. may exacerbateor ameliorate the conditions for The health risksof stratosphericozone deple- conflict. In many regionsof the world, including tion are well known. Increasedexposure to UV-B the Middle Eastand Africa, disputesover accessto radiation can result in increasesin melanomaand freshwaterresources have exacerbated existing con- non-melanomaskin cancerand cataractformation. flicts. Scarcity of water resources is one of the According to the most recent ozone assessment importantfactors in disputesbetween Israel and the (1998), for a "European"population living around Palestinians.Senior officials in both Israeland Egypt 45 degreesNorth, there will bean excessincidence havewarned that if water-sharingarrangements are

50 MeetingHuman Needs within the EnvironmentalEnvelope unsuccessful,war could result. Growing demands Human migrationsstemming from environmental forfresh waterwill increasetheriskof conflicts, and degradationalready involve millions of displaced changes in precipitation patternsand temperature people-sometimes referredto as "environmental as a resultof climate changecan shift the locations refugees."The number of these refugeescould in- of such conflictsto areasthat previously may have creasedramatically in comingdecades with changes had sufficient water resources. in climate and sealevel (seefigure 25). For example, The world has seen a steady streamof con- studiesusing a projectedone-meter rise in sealevel flicts over the increasinglydepleted stocks of fish in indicate that large numbers of people may be af- the oceansbeyond territorial waters.Some have in- fected-forexample, about70 million eachin China volved lossof life, clashesbetween coast guard and and Bangladesh(see figure 7). Inthese studies, many naval vesselsfrom differentnations, and the seizure nationslost financial capital greaterthan 10 percent of one country's fishing boats by other countries. of their grossdomestic product. The vulnerability Even nationsthat are close allies have had serious of the populationsof these countries is illustrated disputesover this shrinkingresource. by recent flooding of agricultural land and proxi- Similarly, if productivity is reduceddue to a mate humansettlements. On low-lying islandsand changing climate, changing water availability, or atolls,retreat away from the coastis rarelyan option, depletionof naturalresources, local populationsmay and as a result,migration and resettlementoutside be driven to migrate to more productive areas. current nationalboundaries may be necessary.

FIGURE 25 Peopleat riskfrom a 44 cm sea-levelrise by the 2080s,assuming 1990s level of floodprotection

towetad loss,5:\btd

PEOPLEAT RISK (millionsper region) _ > 50 million _ _ 10-50million 6 .. .. .region boundary

Source:R. Nicholls,Middlesex University in the U.K. MeteorologicalOffice. 1997. Climate Changeand Its Impacts:A GlobalPerspective. BrittanicCrown Copyright.

POLICIES FOR LINKING HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL NEEDS

THE WORLD'S EXPERIENCE humanneeds, to facilitate the balanc- sincethe 1992United NationsConference ing of competing needs and the on Environment and Development identificationof strategiesthat capture (UNCED)-the Rio Earth Summit- as many benefitsas possible suggestscautious optimism about the o Identificationof innovativecombina- potential for effective,cost-efficient envi- tions of policies that areeffective and ronmental reform at the national level. cost-efficientand that encouragethe Although necessaryfinancial resourcesare public and privatesectors to work to- often limited, and majorinstitutional issues gether need to be resolved, many of the ap- Li Political will and public commitment proachesbeing used to addressnational (from both individualsand the private environmentalproblems also can be used sector)to seriouslyaddress global en- by countriesto respondcreatively to glo- vironmental issues,including setting bally linked environmentalissues. realisticgoals and identifyingcreative Effectivepolicy implementationthat pathsfor achievingthem links global environmental issues and m1 Improvedcoordinationamongthena- sustainabledevelopment has four require- tional and international institutions ments: charged with developing and encouragingadoption of policies and Scientificunderstanding of the nature measuresto meethuman needs,with- of the links among environmental is- out undermining the environmental suesand their relationshipto meeting foundationfor development. ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Many countries are making progresstoward reducingthe rate of resourcedegradation, improv-- ing local and regional air and water quality, and supplyinggrowing populationswith adequatefood and fiber. In the industrializedworld and somede- veloping countries,energy efficiency-the ratio of usable energy output to primary energy input-is improving in many sectorsof the economy. Like- wise, the intensity of consumption-the amount ofe I4 inputs used in the production of any product-of

key resourcessuch as water, land, and materialsis , , , , , l falling. Thesefavorable trends-using less energy and fewer inputs to provide each personwith the goods and servicesthat they demand-benefit the taken to implementthe agreementsreached at the environment, and in recent years have been ob- Rio EarthSummit in 1992.The funds that govern- servedin both developedand developing countries. mentsmake available and the political will to work As a result,some countries in the developingworld toward halting further global environmentaldegra- have lessenvironmental degradation than that ex- dation are widely acknowledgedto be inadequate. perienced by industrializedcountries when they Progressalso is hamperedby institutional weak- were at a similar stageof economic development. nesses,insufficient human resources,inadequate However, many encouragingtrends within enforcementof environmentalstandards and other countrieshave been more than offset by increases regulations,market barriers, a lack of public under- in total demand for resourcesstemming from the standing and support for efforts to address combinedeffects of growthin incomeand rapidrises environmentalissues, and poor coordinationacross in population. The net impact on the environment, environmental managementregimes and interna- therefore,is often negative.For example,although tional conventions.Another importantcondition for the number of urbandwellers in developingcoun- change is the existenceof affordablealternatives, tries with accessto adequatewater increasedby always a major issuein a world of limited budget- about80 percent duringthe 1980s, these gains were ary resources. overshadowedby rapid urban population growth, In addition, the focusof many nationsremains so that at least220 million urbandwellers still lack on immediatelocal and national issues,while less accessto clean drinking water. Similarly, recent attentionis paid to what areperceived as globaland improvementsin energyintensity have been over- long-term environmental problems (even though whelmed by increasingtotal demandsfor energy, global problemsare created by nationalactions and and fossil fuel emissionshave continued to grow. have implicationsat the local level).One exception A secondtrend that has slowed progressin is the issueof ozonedepletion. As a result of a se- addressingglobal environmentalissues is a general riesof internationalagreements to phaseout the use lackof implementationof internationalconventions of ozone-depletingsubstances, the ozone layer is and agreements.For example,little action hasbeen expectedto recoverto pre-1970levels by the middle

54 Policiesfor LinkingHuman and EnvironmentalNeeds of the next century. The progressin this casewas win scenario in which the local, national, and possible for several reasons:the cause of ozone global environmentand economiesbenefit. depletion was well understoodand involved a limited number of producersof targeted substances, X VV?l=1 governmentsand industry broadly agreedon nec- essarysteps for solving the problem, the costs of alternativeswere reasonable,and governmentswere wi lling to createa trustfund to help developingcountries meet their obligations under the agreements. For many of the other global environmental issues discussedin this report,these conditions do not exist. _m, 2 These two trends-growth that overwhelms reductions in environmental impacts per unit of output, and inadequateimplementation of existing agreements-resultin continuedglobal environmen-.- tal degradation. The challengesto policymakers, Biomassplantations are increasingly being used to produce energy from renewable sources. therefore,are to acceleratepositive environmental trends while removing the obstacles to further progress. Policies that yield multiple benefits need to Thereis good news,however. Growing aware- avoid a singleissue and/or sectoralfocus that seeks nessof the links amongglobal environmentalissues to attain only one goal or objective. A single issue offers the possibility of devising policies that can focuscreates the potentialfor unproductivecompe- meet both local and global needs,and that produce tition among environmental and developmental multiple benefits.Many technologiesand practices goals, setting the stagefor future conflicts among existthat can help meetseveral important social and policiesand projects.Solving environmentalprob- economic goals simultaneously, while avoiding lems and moving to more sustainable forms of environmental problems. These goals include: re- developmentinvolves tradeoffs and the realization ducing poverty, expanding food production, that focusingon only one objective at the expense providingenergy services, improvingthe conditions of others will most likely be counterproductivein of human settlements,and avoiding problemsthat the longterm. Forexample,efforts to maximizefood put burdenson future generations.One example is production through agricultural intensificationini- growingtrees and other plantsto producefuel from tially boostedyields. But some of thesegains were renewablesources. The substitutionof such mod- sooneroded as a resultof declinesin soil and water ern plantation biomasssources for fossil fuels can quality, requiring ever largerinputs of fertilizersand reduce energy-relatedgreenhouse gas emissions, pesticidesto maintain production. Thus practical and also can have positive impactson biodiversity solutionsoften requirebalancing competing needs, and local air and water quality. Successfulestab- and it is important to make pragmaticchoices that lishment of ecologically and economically sound capture as many benefits as possible, and not to biomassplantations is an exciting exampleof a win- delay action while waiting for a "perfect" solution.

55 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

One of the major achievements of recent differenttypes of policiesand with the cooperation international environmental agreementsand insti- of the public and privatesectors. For example, the tutions has been the effective incorporation of successfulcampaign to reducethe production and leadingedge scientific thought and researchinto the use of ozone-depletingsubstances has combined design of appropriate public policies and interna- the use of direct regulations(such as banson cer- tional agreements. Through such tain chemicals)with marketincentives and subsidies mechanismsas the to help easethe transition to alternativetechnolo-

CUftAn , r,Intergovernmental gies. Panel on Climate The foundation for successfulimplementation Change and the of innovative policies is the establishmentof what Global Biodiversity might be termed 'basic enabling conditions" for Assessment,science effective social, political, and economic decision- hasbeen broughtto making. These conditions are necessary for ,bear on important policy issues.How- successfulgovernance and are important for creat- ever, like the agreementsthemselves, this scientific ing incentives and information required for input hasgiven relatively little attentionto the inter- long-term, sustainablemanagement of resources. linkagesamong the various institutionsand issues. Governmentsmustworkwith the privatesectorand This callsfor a more integrativeassessment process civic groupsto establishthese basic enabling con- for selectedscientific issues, a processthat canhigh- ditions and to initiate targetedpolicy interventions light the linkages between questions relevant to to promotedesired environmental changes (see box I). decisionmakersaddressing climate, biodiversity, de- Building on these basic enabling conditions, sertification,and forest issues.Redundancy would governmentscan use many different types of poli- beavoided by developingassessment processes and institutionsthat meet the needsof multiple institu- resources(see figure 26). These interventionscan tions, andthe opportunity for identifyingand benefiting rsucs(e iue2) hs nevnin a tiomwinswandthopporutuitfordbeentifyianced.bnftg be grouped into three broad categories, from win-win solutionswould be enhanced. depending on their basicapproach to influencingdecisionmak- NEW APPROACHES TO POLICYMAKING ingand resourceuse:

Policymakersface a major challenge in improving o Commandand control strategies,including es- environmental management,but exciting opportu- tablishment and enforcement of regulations, nities existto takeadvantage of global interlinkages, standards,product bans,and quotas/permits potentialsynergies between various approaches, and n Market-basedinterventions, including restruc- increasingroles for both the public and privatesec- turing economic incentives (removing pre- tors. In the past, policies to addressenvironmental existing market distortions such as subsidies), problemsgenerally have involved regulations(the correctingmarketfailures (taxes orothercharges "commandand control" approach).Experience has to reflect social and environmental costsasso- shown, however,that desiredchanges often canbe ciated with resourceuse), and creatingmarkets made more effectively by using a combination of through the useof tradable permits

56 Policiesfor LinkingHuman and EnvironmentalNeeds

Enablingconditions for effective policy change The combinationof severalimportant enabling conditions can help createa political climate suitablefor effective policy change: Properincentive systems A key role of governmentis to ensurethat properincentive systems are in placeto encouragethe effectiveimplemen- tationof policiesthat recognizeglobal linkages among environmental issues and humanneeds. Changes in the fiscal, legal,liability, or property-rightssystems may be needed to promotepolicy implementation.For example, the establishmentof well-defined,exclusive, secure, enforceable, and legallytransferable property rights provides a powerfulincentive for long-termsustainable management of resources.Granting some use rightsalso may lead to improvedresource managementby giving the usersof a resourcea stakein protectingit for potentialfuture use. Along with private propertyrights, public propertyrights are importantand can, for example,encourage sustainable management of nationalmarine fisheries. Other examplesof incentivesystems are the legaland infrastructuresystems for creating marketsfor globalpublic goods,such as carbon trading. Stronglegal frameworks Strengtheningenvironmental codes and lawsis an importantstep toward improving the implementationof policies. Environmentalregulations in mostcountries are far from adequateto ensurethe sustainablemanagement of the Earth's resources.Effective implementation of environmentalpolicies requires appropriate institutions (a Ministryof the Envi- ronmentor a NationalCouncil for SustainableDevelopment); comprehensive legislation to protectwater and air quality, ecosystems,and other environmentalsystems; adequate human and financialresources; and infrastructureto allow compliancemonitoring. Publicparticipation Nearlyall of the globalconventions and statementsdiscussed in this reportreflect the importanceof public awareness and participationin addressingglobal environmental issues. Participation of stakeholdersin settingpriorities, choosing responseoptions, and implementingpolicies can ensure informed decisionmaking and strengthen ownership of projects, therebyincreasing the likelihoodthat policieswill meettheir objectives. Cooperationwith the private sector Sincepublic resourcesalone are not adequateto meetglobal objectives, the privatesector has a crucialrole to play in implementingchange. Whereas the variousinternational development banks invest about US$50 billion per year in developingcountries, annual private international capital flows areabout five timesthis amount.Even larger amounts are investedlocally-by public and privateinvestors-each year within the developingworld. Theseinvestment re- sourcesrepresent an importantopportunity to implementpolicies designed to achievemultiple benefits. Technologicalcapacity Research,development, and demonstrationprograms to fosterthe creationof new technologiesand encouragetheir diffusioninto the marketplaceare critical and currently underfunded. It isessential to developcollaborative approaches betweengovernment, industry, and academia and betweendeveloped and developingcountries. Financialand institutional capacity Successfulpolicy implementationassumes widespread human, institutional, and financialcapacity. Such capacity is importantfor facilitatingand financingthe transferof environmentally-soundtechnologies, knowledge, and experience;strengthening institutional capacities for researchand development;and program implementation. The necessary capacityis lackingin manydeveloping countries.

Informationfor assessmentand monitoring If countriesare to successfullyaddress globally linkedenvironmental problems, it is necessaryto understandthe rate and paceof changein variousenvironmental variables and the linksbetween different systems. Accordingly, integra- tive scientificassessments are crucial to highlightingthe linksbetween environmental systems; and with this information indicatorscan be developedto monitorprogress through the changeof importantenvironmental variables. In recent yearsthere has been progress in indicatordevelopment at both the nationaland internationallevels.

57 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

FIGURE26 The policymatrix USING CREATING ENVIRONMENTAL ENGAGING MARKETS MARKETS REGULATIONS THE PUBLIC (Subsidyreduction, (Propertyrights and (Standards,bans, (Information taxes,user fees, decentralization, quotas) disclosLre,public performancebonds, tradablepermits, participation) targetedsubsidies) internationaloffset I ~~~~~~~systems) WATER .

E FISHERIES , i Di LAND C MANAGEMENT . co ...... EL FORESTS E F O R ESTS ...... , . , j . u SUSTAINABLE 0 AGRICULTURE ...... I------...... ( BIODIVERSITY/ 1 PROT. AREAS . , '. 2 MINERALS ...... ' ......

: AAIR POLLUTION ...... 0 WATER q POLLUTION O P ...... -- ...... ' SOLID WASTE HAZARDOUS I. WASTE

Source: World Bank. 1997. Five Years after Rio: Innovations in Environmentol Policy Washington, D.C.

E Voluntaryagreementswith publicinvolvement, in- In additionpotential exists for promotingmore cluding voluntaryagreements between polluters responsibleglobal stewardshipof environmental and/orresourceusersand regulators on permissible resourcesby improving coordination among the levelsof pollution,and providinginformation to internationalenvironmental conventions.Possible the publicto help promotemonitoring and com- approachesinclude: coordination among the inter- pliancewith agreed-uponplans of action. national conventions themselves, and better coordinationand communicationamong the country-levelbodies that developnational inputs (national action plans,reports, or inventories)and policy po- sitionsfor internationalnegotiations on convention implementation. BoxesJ, M, and Q describe major categories of environmentalpolicies and presentexamples of Xt ~ } \ 61V. _innovative policymakingthattakesinto accounten- J9, , vi < i 1 vironmentallinkages and meetsmultiple goals.Each of the three major types of policies has strengths

==* *. *. , * , . . , ** * and weaknesses, but they often can be used effec-

* * _ tively in combination.

58 Policiesfor Linking Humanand EnvironmentalNeeds

COMMAND AND CONTROL

Policy instrumentsfor improvedenviron- The most direct way to influence environmental mentalmanagement-Command and control decisionmakingand resourceuse is to dictate stan- Basicstructure. This classic approach to environ- dards (pollution emission rates) or the use of a mentalmanagement relies on mandatingcertain . . . specific technology(catalytic converters for cars or ~~~~~~~~~~~~~practicesreles oforp behavior ollutant(suchino s as thsetting nvironmenthalimits on the releaseof pollutantsinto the environment,har- certain types of scrubbersfor power plants), or to vestingofnatural resources, orotheractivities with specifythe desired outcome (maximum pollution environmentalimpacts). levelsfor air or water). This approachis commonly Examples: reeredtoas"cmmndan,cntol'(CAC)policy, - Banson particularpractices or on the useof certain products(for example, prohibiting the use and includesthe useof regulations,laws, and stan- of leadedgas) dards (see box J). Environmentallaws worldwide Non-tradablequotas or limits on resourceuse or pollutantemissions (emissions standards for mandateor limit certainpractices or behavior-such air or waterpollutants) as bans on the use of certain pesticides,limits on - Mandatoryenergy efficiency or emissionsstan- resourceuse or pollutant emissions,and mandatory dardsthat cover a classof productsor practices (fuelefficiency requirements for new cars). energyefficiency or emissionsstandards. The idea omm( ents: of CAC is embeddedin most global conventions Comments:Providegreater certainty in environmentalre- and their associatedprotocols. All of the environ- sultsthan market-based measures mental conventionsencourage the use of national Afford lessflexibility andthus havehigher eco- nomiccosts than more flexible approaches (such regulatorymeasures, either by recommendingthe as voluntarycompliance, market-based instru- passageof generalenvironmental legislation or by ments) mandatingspecific measures (targeted reductions in Requiremonitoring and enforcement,which can increasecosts the production and consumption of ozone-deplet- Are often combined with other instruments ing substances;compliance with specifiedharvest (suchas trading of quotasor permits,pollution charges,or initiativesto encouragepublic in- levelsfor fish or trees). volvement). Commandand control policiesare sometimes the only effectiveway of attaining certain environmental goals, such as regulating the use of very sensitiveecological areasor eliminating the useof extremelylong-lived and toxic compounds. Although CAC policies allow governmentsto set specific standards,achieving results often is costly. Becausethey deny different usersor firms the flexibility to respondin the most cost-effective manner, command and control policies can miss important opportunities for cost savings and for achievingmultiple benefits.To help reducethe costs Command and control poliies are Commonly used to control of regulatoryapproaches, CAC policies increasingly pollution fromi major iniduistries.

59 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

A mixed approach-The useof standards Quotasand chargesfor managingirrigation and feesto control palm-oilindustry water usein Israel effluent in Malaysia Effortsto allocatescarce resources can benefit from Creativepolicymaking often combines several dif- a mix of policyinstruments. By combiningannual ferentpolicy approaches to reacha desiredgoal. allocationsforwaterwith watercharges, Israel has For example,to controlwater pollution from oil achievedremarkable efficiencies in the useof ir- palm mills, the governmentof Malaysiahas suc- rigationwater. Under this system,irrigation water cessfullyimplemented a combinationof policies isallotted to licensedfarmers based on anannual basedon a licensingsystem-consisting of both quota.Each farmer's quota is basedon the area effluent standardsand charges-designed to cultivated,the crop mix, and the water require- reduceeffluentsovertime.Fourstagesofprogres- ments of each crop. This allocation system sivelystringent effluent standards were setand providesan incentivefor waterefficiency, since enforced.Initially, a yearwas allowed for palm farmersmust sustain their farmson the allocated oil mills to installtreatment facilities, after which volume,and wastefulpractices may forcethem they were requiredto progressivelyreduce their to reducetheir irrigatedarea or pay penaltiesfor wastewaterdischarges. In additionto developing over-consumption.Charges for irrigationwater are the pollutantstandards, the Malaysiangovernment basedon a progressiveblock ratestructure, and levieseffluent charges based on the volume of consumptionabove the allocatedlimit is charged each mill's discharge.These charges have been at a fixed rateper cubic meter.Prices also are in- increasedannually. Finally, polluters are required dexed to seasonalconditions: A 40 percent to payan annual license-processing fee; mills that premiumis charged during peak irrigation months have succeededin developingtechnologies to to coverthe higherper unit energydemands for reducedischarges are charged at a lower rate.As pumpingthat resultfrom greaterhydraulic losses a resuIt of thiscombination of standards,fees, and in overloadedpipelines. This combination of poli- incentives,the palmoil industryhas made steady cies hasresulted in a steadydecline in Israel's progresstoward meeting its targets.Between 1978 averagewater application rate per hectareand a and 1989,despite a 93 percentincrease in the notableincrease in irrigationefficiency. Between numberof palmoil mills anda three-foldincrease 1951and 1985,water useper hectarerates fell in the productionof crudepalm oil, effluentloads 36 percent,which meantthat even though the releasedto publicwater bodies fell from563 tons perday in 1978to 5 tons perday in 1989.These 380 percent,water use for irrigationincreased by pollutionreductions were accomplished without only 200 percent. affectingthe competitivenessof the Malaysian palm oil industry.

A &1i 0>: t1: > IX X havebeen combined with other instrumentsthat rely on marketsand economicsignals (pol lution charges, trading of permitsor quotas-see boxesK and L). In these cases,setting limits on dischargesof pollutants is a prerequisite to establishing markets for trading emissionsrights. Somecountries are wary of settingstrict environmental standards for fear of becoming less

. ;; competitivei internationally. For example, it has been °-t< l E: l t:} +1 speculatedthat unequal environmental standards .>:.Eij could provide incentivesfor businessesto locate in Oil palm fruit readyfor harvesting. countrieswith weakstandards and thus reducetheir

60 Policies for Linking Human and Environmental Needs pollution-controlcosts. The concentrationof heavily polluting industries in countries with weaker stan- Policy instruments for improved dardscould lead to environmental degradationin environmentalmanagement - thesecountries, and would be economically harm- Market-basedinstruments ful to the countriesthat lose industries.Large-scale Basicstructure. Theseapproaches use price sig- nalsto affecteconomic decisions by industrymovements also coulId affect trade balances and consumers. producers and provide incentivesfor countriesto implement Examples: compensatorytrade measures.Empirical evidence, Reduction/eliminationof subsidiesthat artifi- however, suggeststhat this so-called"race to the ciallylower the priceof scarcenatural resources bottom" rarely happens;environmental standards (water,fossil fuels) Targetedsubsidies to encouragethe useof en- appearto play only a minor role in location deci- vironmentally friendly products (renewable sions for most industries.In addition, the General energysources, high-efficiency appliances) Taxesand fees(pollution charges) Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) warns Creationof marketsfor tradablequotas or per- againstthe useof unilateraltrade measuresto offset mits(for pollutant emissions) the competitive effectsof different environmental Deposit-refundor performancebond systems (for bottlesor batteries). standards. Comments: The useof command and control approaches Eliminationof marketdistortions (subsidies) can is well understood,and manygovernments are com- slowdemand growth (by encouragingresource conservation,improved efficiency, and fortable with this strategy. There is a growing tu.n an xadspl truhrccig substitution) and expandsupply (through recycling, realization,however, that relying on CACoften im- exploration,imports, and developmentof sub- poses excessive costs on an economy, and that stitutes). Taxesand userfees can beused to makeprices monitoring and enforcementof thesemeasures may reflectthe true costsof resourceuse to society, exceedthe regulatorycapacity of many countries. includingthe damagesor coststhat may result fromemissions, release of effluents,or resource depletion.These so-called "full costprices" are MARKET-BASEDINTERVENTIONS often difficultto estimateprecisely. Allow privatedecisionmakers greater flexibility (whichgenerally reduces costs). As global marketsbecome increasinglyimportant, Havepotential to yield fiscal benefitsfor gov- the relative power of public institutionsto dictate ernments,either by reducingcosts (subsidy standardswanes. Governments have a powerful set elimination)or raisingrevenues (taxes or fees). of alternativesto traditional command and control policies in the form of market-basedinterventions, The role of pricesand the marketare increas- including subsidy reduction and elimination, tar- ingly important for improved environmental getedsubsidies, taxes and fees,creation of markets management.Official development lending ac- for quotasor permits,and deposit-refundor perfor- counts for lessthan one-fifth of the annual total of mancebond systems (see box M). Suchinterventions internationalcapital flows. Unless private sources usethe marketplaceto sendsignals of scarcityand of capital investin sustainabledevelopment projects opportunity costs,allowing individualsand firms to and programs,there is little hope of turning around make informed decisions. many negativeenvironmental trends. Strong strate-

61 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future gic partnershipsamong governments,nongovern- in the price signalsshaped by governmentpolicies mentorganizations, the privatesector and financial could affectindividual and organizationalbehavior, institutions-including developmentbanks and pri- leadingto moreenvironment-friendly outcomes (see vate banks-can enable societies to respond box N for a descriptionof relatedefforts to include effectivelyto marketsignals. stocks and flows of environmental resources in The importanceof market-basedinstruments measuresof national wealth, and hence provide is increasinglyrecognized by global conventions. information for more environmentallysound eco- For example,the Conventionon Biological Diver- nomic decisionmaking). sity specifically mentions the use of economic Anothertype of marketmechanism is the trad- incentives.Article 11, on incentivemeasures, states ing of emissionrights. Once governmentsset a cap that: "EachContracting Party shall, as far aspossible on the amount of a substancethat can be released and asappropriate, adopt economically and socially into the environment, polluters can decide who sound measuresthat act as incentivesfor the con- amongthem will makethe largestcutbacks. Other servation and sustainableuse of componentsof promisingmarket-based interventions are described biological diversity." The Kyoto Protocolalso rec- on the following pages.For example, if different ognizesthe potential for market-basedinstruments firms havedifferent marginal costs of abatement(the which allow both project-basedoffset trading (Ar- amount it costseach firm to reducepollution by a ticles 6 and 12)and emissionsrights trading (Article fixed amount),it will be more efficient for the firms 17). to trade pollution abatementrequirements among Market-based instruments have several themselves-each firm determining if it is cheaper advantageouscharacteristics. They allow privatede- to reduce its own pollution or pay another firm to cisionmakersgreaterflexibility (which helpsreduce expand its own pollution abatementactivities to privatecosts); they generallyare easierto implement meetthe obligationsof both firms. In this way, the than standardsor other regulations;and they can total target reduction in abatementcan be met in reducegovernment costs, either by eliminatingthe the leastexpensive manner. The environmentben- needfor subsidiesor by raising revenues(taxes or efits as a result of reduced pollution, and the fees). Market-basedinstruments have been used economy benefitsfrom achieving this goal in the successfullyin the UnitedStates at the nationallevel most economical manner. to reducesulfur emissions,and havebeen suggested for global useto reducegreenhouse gas emissions. Eliminatingharmful subsidies One type of market-basedintervention is pric- Subsidiesoften harm the environment.Many coun- ing resourcesappropriately to reflect the external tries currently subsidize activities that lead to socialcosts of resourceuse, including environmen- environmentaldegradation. For example,subsidies tal damagesresulting from emissions, releaseof that reducethe pricesof fossil fuelsencourage their effluents,or resourcedepletion. These prices are useand the accompanyingemissions of greenhouse referredto as "full cost pricing." Often, the costsof gases,and subsidiesthat keep water priceslow for damageto the environmentare not accountedfor large-scale farms encourage over-irrigation and in the unregulatedmarketplace-they are thus called depletion of freshwatersupplies. Subsidies for en- externalities.Including environmental externalities ergy,roads, water, and agriculturein developingand

62 Policiesfor Linking Humanand EnvironmentalNeeds

New approachesto resourceaccounting

Dataand informationare essentialfor incorporatingthe value of environmentalgoods and servicesinto economicdecisions. New approachesto usihgand presentingdata on environmentalassets are beginningto improveresource management. An exampleof this sort of approachis a setof new techniquesthat value stocksand flows of naturalcapital in economicterms and accounts.These new techniques try to addressthe inherentshortcomings of traditionalmeasures of value by takinginto accountthe valuesof renewableand non-renewableresources and adjustingstandard economic measures to accountfor depletionof thesere-

Wealthshares across selected regions, 1994

Sub-SaharanAfrica SouthAmnerica MiddleEast

Produced Produced assduets assets Produced assets Naurl7%- assets X 23% ast 18% Natural capta Human resources Natural 43% capital Human resources Human 64% resources Natural 74% capital 39%

Note: Sub-SaharanAfrica doesnot includedata on Nigeria. Source:World Bank. 1997. Expandingthe Measureof Wealth: Indicatorsof EnvironmentallySustainable Development. Washington, D.C.

sources.If, for example,national accounts can be modifiedto includean expandedmeasure of national wealth-includingthe valueof stocksof living and non-livingresources, human and socialcapital (combined ashuman resources), as well as manufacturedcapital-then changesin total wealthper capita(including the value of environmentalgoods and services) become a usefulindicator of sustainability.Although the year-to- yearvalues change slowly, trends over time indicatethe sustainabilityof the system.A country'sdevelopment can be consideredsustainable if its total wealth per capitadoes not decreaseover time. Anothermeasure tracksyear-to-year changes in the flow of savingsand investments.This measure,called "genuine savings" startswith annualsavings rates and makesadjustments for resourcedepletion and pollution. A positive genuinesavings rate is a strongindication that the countryis on a sustainablegrowth path.

Somepreliminary attempts have been made by the World Bankto estimateboth genuine savings and wealth per capitafor severalcountries, by valuingstocks of manufacturedassets, natural resources and humanand socialcapital. These efforts have contributed to a growingrealization that sustainabledevelopment will re- quiremaintenance, or evenexpansion, of at leastfour kindsof capital:

Naturalcapital, or environmentallyderived goods and services Financialor "human-madecapital," such as machines, factories, buildings, and otherinfrastructure Humancapital, including human capacity, as measuredby educationaland healthstatus Socialcapital, including cultural and other social institutions that help providea senseof identityand social cohesion.

Adequatehuman and socialcapital are necessaryenabling conditions for successfulgovernance, without which it isdifficult to implementpolicy initiativesto promotethe useof environmentallybenign technologies and practices.

63 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future transitioneconomies are estimated to total over $240 emissionsprojected for the year 2050, and could billion per year. One study of fossil fuel subsidies increaseglobal real incomesby 0.7 percentannu- found that the amount of money paid by govern- ally (incomes in non-OECD countries would rise mentsfor energysubsidies worldwide is equivalent by 1.6 per cent). It is importantto recognize,how- to paying $40 per ton of carbon releasedinto the ever,thatthe eliminationof subsidieswillbe resisted atmosphere! by stakeholderswhose income will be affectedby The removalof subsidiesthat harm the envi- the change. ronmentcan produce multiple benefitsby reducing demandfor previouslysubsidized resources and thus Targetedsubsidies reducingpressure on the environment;freeing fis- Not all subsidiesare harmful. Sometimessubsidies cal resources for other uses; and increasing are neededto promote improvedtechnologies or economicefficiency by minimizing pricedistortions practicesand achieve environmental goals. One (seebox 0). An OECD study calculatesthat remov- exampleis the useof governmentsubsidies to make ing fossil fuel subsidiesworldwide would reduce the developmentand production of substitutesfor global emissionsby 18 percent, compared with ozone-depletingsubstances (ODS) more affordable,

Subsidyreform in the coalsector in China Sincethe mid-I980s, China has made remarkable progress in reducingenergy subsidies, particularly in the coalsector, which produces more than 70 percentof the country'senergy. Subsidy rates for coal havefallen from 61 percentin 1984to 11percent in 1995. The amountof moneyspent subsidizing fossil fuels(based on the differencebetween domestic and world prices)fell from an estimated$25 billion in 1990-91to $10 billion in 1995-96.It alsohas been reported that the budgetarysub- sidy from China'scentral government to cover the operatinglosses in state-ownedcoal mines decreasedfrom $750million (1.1percent of total governmentexpenditures) in 1993to $240 million (0.26 percentof governmentexpenditures)in 1995.At thesame time, China removed price controlson coal,and encouragedthe development of non-state-ownedcoal mines. Cooling tower of a thermal power plant. Currently,these private mines produce about 50 percentof the country'scoal. About 80 percentof coal is now soldat internationalprices. Subsidyreform in Chinahas produced multiple benefits:energy savings, financial savings, and reduced emissionsof greenhousegases. The economicperformance of coal mineshas improved rapidly: Estimated operatinglosses of state-ownedmines dropped from $1.4 billion in 1990 to $230 million in 1994.These reformmeasures in the energysector have reducedgovernment spending and-along with the structural adjustmentand technological change-have contributed to energyconservation and environmentalprotection. Energyintensity in Chinahas fallen by about30 percentsince 1985, implying that energyconsumption (in oil equivalents)and CO2 emissionsare now, respectively,0.3 billion metrictons lessand 1.1 billion metrictons lessthan would havebeen the caseif the reformhad not takenplace.

64 Policiesfor LinkingHuman and EnvironmentalNeeds thus enablingcountries to meetthe Montreal Proto- col goals of phasingout ODS production and use. Other examplesof targetedsubsidies to encourage environmentally and socially desirable practices include state support for reforestation,and subsidies to reduce the prices of energy-efficient / ; technologies, recycled products,alternative fuels, and sustainably-harvestedwood and non-wood products. Targetedsubsidies are particularlycritical for the successof alternativeenergy technologies. Be- fore thesetechnologies can enter the marketplace competitively,they must be researchedand devel- .. opedand may requiresubsidies to reducetheir costs Theremoval of pesticidesubsidies results in more carefulpesticide applicationand reducedenvironmental damage. and encouragetheir adoption by the privatesector. While the useof targetedsubsidies goes against mentaltaxes on suchproducts can help raiseprices the generaltrend of reducinggovernment interven- to more accuratelyreflect theseadditional coststo tion in the marketplace,their usecan sometimesbe society and the environment.These types of mea- justified, particularlyif offeredon a temporarybasis sureshave three main benefits:They can act as an to encourage the use of new approaches or incentivetoreducepollution(pollutioncharges),use technologiesduring market introduction or devel- resourcesmore efficiently (taxeson environmental opment. In Indonesia,for example,the government resources),and generaterevenues. Sulfur and car- subsidizedthe useof new, alternativepest-control bon taxes have been used in different regions to methodsto encouragefarmers to use environmen- discouragethe useof certainpollutingfuels, thereby tally friendly methodsof rice farming, and to use reducingemissions of thesesubstances, while also chemical spraysonly as a last resort. Within three raisinggovernment revenues. yearsfarmers were using 90 percent lesspesticide, In contrast to quotas or emission standards, rice yields were increasing, and a number of pollution chargesdo not set limits on emissionsor environmental benefits(such as water quality im- production. Instead,firms or other regulated enti- provementsand protection of local biodiversity) ties are free to either emit pollutants and pay the were realized. tax,or payfor installationof controlsto reduceemis- sions.The challenge for governmentregulators is to Taxesand pollutioncharges calculatethe level of chargeor tax that will change Justas targeted subsidies can encourage certain prac- behaviorsufficiently to achieveenvironmental ob- tices, taxes and pollution chargescan be used to jectives. Taxesand chargeshave been placed on discourage certain behaviors. Even if the market outputs-industrial emissions and discharges of price of a product reflectsits full costof production, pollutantsto waterways-as well as inputs to pro- other externalcosts to the environmentor human duction such as energy, water, fertilizers, and health may not be reflected in the price. Environ- pesticides.Taxes on the sale of goods also can re-

65 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future duce demandfor theseproducts, and hencereduce pollutionassociated with their production.Taxes can Auctionablepermits for the consumptionof be used to encouragematerials substitution or en- ozone-depletingsubstances in Singapore ergy switching. Fuel-specific energy taxes, for The experienceof Singaporeis a usefulexample example, can encourageswitching to low- or no- of how to createand ensurethe smoothfunction- carbon content fuels. Finally, funds generated ing of a marketin tradablepermits. The Govern- ment of Singaporecreated an auction to trade throughtaxes on environmentallyharmful products permitspert f for the consumptioncsmtion ofofcozone-deple ozone-depleting or activitiescan be usedby governmentsin a 'rev- substances(ODS). Each quarter, the nationalquota enue neutral" fashion to reduce taxes on other of ODS is allocatedamong importers and users, halfon the basisof historicconsumption and half environmentallyfriendly sectorsor activities. through open auction. Eachfirm must submit sealedbids indicating the amountof ODSit would Tradablequotas and permits like to purchase,along with its offer price. Bids arethen ranked by price,and the lowestwinning Tradable quotas or permits assign "rights" to use bid (theone that clearsthe market)serves as the resourcesor emit certain levels of pollution; these quotaprice. There is a sufficientlylarge number of biddersto establishcompetitive conditions, as rights can be bought and sold. In practicegovern- indicatedby the rapid increasein quota prices ments issue the permits or assign a quota for duringthe firstfew roundsof bidding.One result emissionsof a specified pollutant or consumption is that firms in Singaporenow havea seriousin- centiveto conserveand find substitutesfor ODS. of a resourceover a given period. In the caseof Comparedto traditionalfixed quotasand prices, pollution releases,governments typically cap aggre- the auctionapproach is cost-efficientat boththe gate emissions from sources with in a particular individualand societal levels, and is easy to imple- gaterom missons surce witin a artiular ment.The auction also allows the governmentto geographic region at a level consistentwith envi- capturea sizableportion of the quotarents, which ronmental goals, and issue the corresponding canthen be usedto subsidizerecycling services number of permits. Box P describes the use of and encouragealternative technologies. auctionablepermits to control ozonedepleting substances(ODS) in Singapore.

Once an overall level of pollution or resource , use has beenset, permits or quotascan be bought and sold among the industriesand individuals involved in the targeted activity, allowing the marketplaceto determinehow the scarceresources or rightsto pollute are allocated. This strategyc-an be extremelycost-effective: When tradableair pollution permits were introduced to control sulfur Singaporeuses tradeable permits to reduceODS. emissions (precursorsof acid rain) in the United States,emission reductions were achievedat about shippingcosts due to railroad deregulation,which half the cost that analystshad predicted beforethe led to increasesin shipmentsof low-sulfurcoal from systemwas implemented. (Such'success" stories the west to power plants in the east as industries

are always complicated. The cost savings in the soughtthe most cost-effectiveway to achieve S02 United Stateswere, in part, a result of decreased reductions.)National effortsto reducecarbon diox-

66 Policies for Linking Human and Environmental Needs

ide emissionsto meet obligations under the Kyoto to take action unilaterally. A wide array of initia- Protocolcould include the creation of tradablecar- tives is available to harness public and private bon permits.The potentialestablishment of a global supportfor environmentalmeasures. These include marketfor thesepermits could result in global cost product-specificenvironmental impact information savingsand internationalfinancial transfers. or "eco-labeling," disclosureof information about Tradablepermits have great potential to yield the environmentalbehavior of producers,and vol- social welfare gains-by allowing trade between untary agreements among industrial entities to groupsto savecosts-when there is agreementon a improve environmentalpractices (see box Q). goal of total pollution levelsor resourceusage (such Involvingthe public often canbe an extremely asfishery catchesor forestharvests). Since the issu- effective form of intervention, particularly when anceof permitscreates property rights, it is important governmentresources are limited and there are ef- that initial allocations of permits are determined fective civic organizationsand networks, such as equitablyand that there are no artificial obstructions privatevoluntary organizations,that support social to trading permits. developmentor environmentalconservation. Pub-

VOLUNTARY AGREEMENTS AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT

Policy instrumentsfor improved Participatoryand voluntary agreementsbelong to environmentalmanagement-Voluntary an importantclassofpoliciesthatcomplementcom- agreementsand public involvement mandand control and market-basedpolicies. They Basic structure. Promotepublic and private- are particularly usefulwhen many of the benefitsof sector actions that improve environmental changesaccrue to the public at large,offering little conditionsby providinginformation on the envi- ronmentalconsequences of choicesand actions, financial incentive for companiesor governments or by encouragingentities to take voluntaryac- tions to achieve specific objectives (such as reducing greenhousegas emissions,reducing energy expenditures, conserving natural resources, VW44; I Xrecycling). 7 !>, I'l,11 ~~~Examples: Productinformation and 'eco-labeling" (for example,"dolphin friendly" tuna,or sustainably- J[b1DV. timber) . . fl JUl[,@IJiyPiw : ~~~harvestedDisclosureof information about the environmentalbehavior of producers.

- -- g X 4Q'? X - S Voluntaryagreements with industryto reduce % -- - 0 t! p Av/ pollutionemissions to certainlevels over time. uA1tcs % i z_LOCUSComments: ZYj c;n*ii*l \ / ,3e;,X a PENArISLAO - Effective forms of intervention, particularly in caseswhere government resources are limited 0111L'I EIVIRONMENTOOR RESPONSIBILJTYand there are strong and effective civic organi- (i:EIYIROIMEIT IS2>DOR REPONBIUTY .zations and networks. Provisionof productinformation and labeling A MalaysianNGO utilizesfour languagesin a signto promote requiresunbiased and transparent standards and environmentalawareness. rating systems.

67 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future lic involvement can help focus government atten- tion on environmentalmanagement. The EcoWatchProject in the Philippines

Productinformation, eco-labeling, and In 1996 Philippine PresidentRamos signed a ProductiInformationdisclosur, e lin, andmemorandum of agreementwith 23 industryas- informationdisclosure sociations(representing about 2,000 companies) Information on the environmental impacts of pro- to formally launch an eco-labelingcampaign ducingproductsspecific can assist consumers in calledthe IndustrialEcoWatch Project. The project ducing specific products can assistconsumers in is designedto provide a strong incentive for making informed decisionsabout the purchaseof industriesto complywith environmentalregula- goods and services.For example, product labeling tions, and to rewardindustries whose environmentalperformance exceeds standard require- and rating can provide important information on ments.As partof the project,the governmenthas energy usage,which consumerscan useas a crite- set up a five-levelgrading system to categorize rion for buying suchgoods as home appliances and the environmentalperformance of thesefirms. The inclusionof industryrepresentatives in the cre- automobiles.Provision of suchproduct information ation of this systemwas critical to its success, and labeling requireseffective standards and rating because the private firms-by signing the systems,which can be developed in conjunction EcoWatchproject agreement-havecommitted systems,which can be developedin conjunction themselvesto supportingits implementation.The with trade or professionalassociations and other firststages of theproject-setting broad guidelines stakeholders(see box R). Other types of informa- for the five categories,identifying 259 priority wastewaterdischargers, and ratingperformance tion disclosure from energy providers also can inabout100ofthem-areunderway,andthepro- encouragesavings. Utility bills can be structuredto gramis to beexpanded. convey informationabout usagepatterns, compari- sonsof one's usagewith that of other consumers favorable public relations, and reducing costs by and with monthly usagein previousyears, and po- reducingenergy wastage and lossof valuableprod- tential resource savings that may be achieved ucts in the form of wastedischarges. Examples of through changes in these patterns.Municipalities voluntary agreementsin the United Statesand Eu- can also encouragerecycling and water conserva- rope include negotiated targets for achieving tion through public information campaigns. emissionsreductions, voluntary adoption of high-

Voluntary agreements efficiency products or processes, cooperative Voluntary agreementscan be very effective tools researchand development,and agreementsto moni- for improving environmental performance,when tor and report emissions. participantsare informed and motivated to make Anothertype of voluntaryactivity involvesthe changes.Examples of suchagreements include vol- adoption of energy-efficiencystandards for residen- untary programs to reduce pollutant emissions, tial and commercial buildings. In such cases reduce energy consumption, conserve natural re- manufacturersand buildersagree-without govern- sources,and increaserecycling. ment-mandatedlegislation-to produce building Corporationsmay have a number of motiva- componentsorconstruct buildings that meetdefined tionsforparticipatinginvoluntaryagreements,such energy-usecriteria. The resulting reductions in as reducingthe riskthat performancestandards will energyconsumption yield a wide rangeof environ- be imposed by government regulation, achieving mental benefits, including reduced emissionsof

68 Policiesfor LinkingHuman and EnvironmentalNeeds pollutantsthat causesmog, acid rain, depositionof privatefirms, ensuringthat they receivethe benefits heavy metals,and climate change. associatedwith their investmentsin new technolo- The successof voluntary agreementscan be gies. Unfortunately, public sector investment in greatlyenhanced by a combination of factors:the fields important for environmental protection is threat of governmentregulation if environmentally declining.For example,energy research and devel- harmful practicescontinue, the availabilityof accu- opment in OECD countries has decreased 50 rate information on the costs and benefits of percentin real terms over the past 10 yearsand, of implementingchanges, and the capabilityto moni- the remainingfunds, lessthan 20 percentis spent tor results. on improvingenergy efficiency or on renewableenergies;80 percentor more isstill spenton developing RESEARCH,DEVELOPMENT, AND fossil and nuclear energy.Much potential existsto DEMONSTRATION achieveenvironmental goals by renewing government commitmentsto supportRD&D in the energy Providingan improvedstandard of living fora grow- field. ing global population without compromising environmental systemsrequires development of IMPROVINGNATIONAL AND new technologiesand processesthat useenergy and INTERNATIONALPOLICY COORDINATION materialsin an efficient manner. Research,development, and demonstration (RD&D) efforts Internationalconventions and statementsprovide a involvinggovernments, universities, and the private setof goalsfor meetinghuman needs in an environ- sector are critical to ensuringthe developmentof mentally sustainablefashion. Unfortunately, the new products,energy sources, and techniquesthat single-issuefocus of theseconventions encourages will increaseproduction of neededgoods and ser- the implementationof measuresthat may fulfill one vices with reducedenvironmental impacts. environmentalobjective at the expenseof others. RD&D is important not only for the develop- This createsthe potential for unproductivecompe- mentof newtechnologies, but alsoto helpovercome tition among environmental and developmental barriersthat may be limiting the applicationof ex- goalsand encouragesstrategies that may be benefi- istingtechnologies by improvingtheir performance, cial to onesector (such as increasing food production reliability,and marketpenetration. The "demonstra- throughthe increaseduse of irrigation)but resultin tion" componentof RD&D is critical for providing harm to others (non-sustainableuse of water re- information on actual performance, installation sources,salinization of soils).Potential measures to costs, training needs,maintenance requirements, overcomethis problem include coordinatingenvi- and other aspectsof technologyapplication in mar- ronmental policy formulation among sectoral ket settings. authoritiesat the national level,and improving co- While the privatesector must play a major role ordination of environmental and sustainable in RD&D,there is a strongrationale for governmen- developmentinitiatives among intergovernmental tal supportbecause of the high costsof much RD&D organizations-including effortsunder the interna- and the needto protect the intellectualproperty of tional environmentalconventions.

69 Protecting Our Planet - Securing Our Future

National PolicyCoordination Some specific measuresfor national policy Government institutions usually are structuredto integrationinclude: meet narrow mandates;to provide food, water, or electricity.In manycases responsibility for safeguard- n Integrationof nationalprocedures to negotiate ing the environment is separated from that of and implementthe variousconventions meetingthese basic needs.Too often there is little rU Integrationof national data collection and re- recognition of how sectoralpolicies interact, con- porting for the variousconventions to which a tribute to local environmental problems, or country is a Party accelerateglobal change.Addressing global envi- EU Encouragementof researchand monitoring ac- ronmental problemswill require creativethinking tivities that can meet the needsof more than about how to design governmentalinstitutions to one convention and increaseunderstanding of minimize tradeoffsand improve coordinationat all the linkages among the underlying scientific levels and between all sectors.Even national-level issues. government institutions with a broad mandateto InternationalPolicy Coordination develop national policy to addressglobal environ- developniloEffective internationalcoordination is anothercriti- mental issuesgenerally disconnect responsibilities cal need for implementing cost-effectivesolutions for specific environmental issues.This compart- to linked global environmentalproblems. Unfortu- mentalization is reinforced by the structure of nately, coordination and cooperation often are national-levelparticipation in the internationalcon- lacking at the international level, in part because ventions: each convention generally has its own the existinginternational organizations and mecha- constituencywithin each country, and each coun- nisms have a single-issuefocus analogousto the try creates separate decisionmaking bodies and sectoralorganization of nationalgovernments. The national delegationsfor each of the conventions. Scarceresources within eachgovernment are dissi- pated by this separation of convention-related activities,and opportunitiesto identify potentialar- easof common interestand synergiesare missed. For example,several of the conventionscall for the sustainablemanagement/use of land and water resources,with varyinggoals (such as enhancing GHG sinksand reservoirs,protecting biological diversity, safeguardingaquatic ecosystems, managing forests to meet human needs,halting land degradation). Coordinating efforts to achieve these convention- specificgoals within countrieswould enablenational implementingagencies to cooperatein regionalini- tiatives or in their choice of measures, leading to ===== more effectiveprotection of resources.

70 Policiesfor LinkingHuman and EnvironmentalNeeds growingneed forcoherence among intergovernmen- ters and other national officials spend partici- tal organizationsthat addressenvironmental issues pating in intergovernmentalmeetings. and/orsustainable development was highlightedby the UN GeneralAssembly Special Session in June In addition to thesespecific suggestions, some 1997. far-sightedobservers have envisionedan over-arch- The conventionsecretariats are exploring po- ing legalinstrument orforum that would review and tential mechanismsto improve coordinationamong verify attainmentof global environmental goals in convention-relatedactivities. Specific options to be an integratedmanner. consideredinclude: Improvednational and internationalcoordination can expand awarenessof the linkagesamong n Integrationof national reportingrequirements. global environmental issuesand promote the de- Many of the conventionscall for Partiesto file velopmentofintegratedapproachestoaddressthese and periodically update national reports and issuesand sustainablymeet human needs. action plans. Combining these reporting re- THE LESSONSOF EFFECTIVE quirementswould allow the reports to more POLICYMAKING AND IMPLEMENTATION carefully examine the linkages among the is- suesfrom a national perspective. Solving environmental problemsand switching to E Designof training and capacity-building pro- more sustainabledevelopment strategieswill in- grams that cover several conventions, for volve tradeoffs. Practical solutions often require example,collaboration among the Secretariats balancingcompeting needs; it is importantto make of the Biodiversity,Desertification, and Climate well-informed choices that capture as many ben- ChangeConventions to provide assistanceto efitsas possible,without delayingaction to wait for governmentson capacity-buildingactivities "perfect"solutions. The previous discussion of policy m Integration of critical mechanismsand pro- instrumentsillustrates a number of ways in which cesses,for example, improvedcoordination of environmental goals can be advanced.Although activities under the Global EnvironmentFacil- environmental policies traditionally have focused ity (GEF),the financial mechanismof severalof on a single issue,now the challenge is to identify the conventions. policies that can simultaneouslyproduce benefits n Integratedscientific assessments.The conven- in meetingseveral environmental goals. tion bodies could cooperate in producing Four lessonscan be drawn from this review of assessmentsthat examine the linkagesamong environmentalpolicies: the importanceof ensuring the ecological processesaddressed by the dif- administrativesustainability; securing financial sus- ferent conventions. tainability; the benefitsof building constituencies Q Cooperationin producingoutreach materials to for change; and the need to achieve policy informthe public aboutthe relationshipsamong integration. environmental issues. n Thepotential for integratingmeetings of the con- Ensuringadministrative sustainability ventionbodies-in both placeand time-should Sincethe environmentis a relatively new concern be explored, to minimize the time that minis- at the level of nationalgovernments, few countries

71 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future havewell-established bureaucracies for environmen- to addressbiodiversity loss, stratosphericozone tal management:As a result, this management depletion, global warming, and the managementof function commonly is housedin a new, often weak, international waters. Although this sum clearly is ministry or agency.Technically trained staff, labo- not sufficient to solve theseglobal problems, GEF ratory facilities, and other support often are resourceshave provided significant leverage to make inadequateor nonexistent. It is thus important to a usefulstart, especially in the fields of ozonedeple- develop policies that do not require elaborateand tion and biodiversity, and have been useful in expensiveadministrative support. promoting new technologiesto mitigateglobal cli- In many casesthe new policies can be imple- mate change. mented by other, sectoral ministries as environ- The declining trend in governmentspending mental concernsare "mainstreamed' into ongoing highlights the growingimportance of the privatesec- activities.This approach is facilitatedby the grow- tor as a potential ally in the shift to sustainability. ing awarenessof the interlinkagesamong environmental systems.The policies reviewed in this report highlight a number of innovative approaches to improved management,sometimes involving policiesthat areself-policing or makeminimal new administrativedemands.

Achievingfinancial sustainability Thewidespread trend to reducegovernment spending meansthat little additional public funding may be availableto addressnational and global environmentalconcerns in the nearterm. This underscores the importanceof policy initiativesthat generatefi- nancial resources, for example, by removing environmentallydamaging subsidies (such as those for fossil-based energy or fertilizer), imposingenvi- ronmentaltaxes that help accountfor externalities (such as damagefrom air and water pollution), or charging users a fair price for the benefits that they receivefrom the environment. For environmentalissues of worldwide importance,international funding mechanismssuch as the GEF and the multilateral fund created under the Montreal Protocoloffer limited financial supportto developing countries.The GEF,since its inception t . . in 1991,has provided US$2.0billion (byJune1998)

72 Policiesfor LinkingHuman and EnvironmentalNeeds

Not only isthe privatesector by far the largestsource that can overcomevested interests.This is particu- of investmentfunds, but, in a number of cases,pri- larly true for environmentalpolicy changes,since vate firms can be relatively easily encouragedto many of the gains from resourceextraction accrue implementpolicies that producemultiple economic to a few powerful companies,whereas the benefits and environmental benefits. As noted earlier, the of environmentalprotection are dispersedamong a private sector provides nearly US$260 billion per broad baseof people. year in investmentsand loans in developing coun- Environmentalprogress often is made when tries, in comparisonwith US$50billion per year in an informed public demandsenvironmental protec- loans from the development banks and less than tion from its elected officials, or successfullyputs US$1billion peryearfrom the GEF.However, since pressureon companiesto change their practices approximately 90 percent of private funding has through publicity campaignsand product boycotts. been flowing to only 12 countriesundergoing fast- Environmentalimprovements, in turn, may require pacedeconomic development, private sector funds some sacrificesby individuals, such as lower per- alone are not sufficientto addressthe global prob- sonal consumption of resource-intensive and lems. This increasesthe importanceof efficiently pollutinggoodsandservices.Inordertoprotectthe using the financing that is available from govern- global environment,people and their governments must be willing to make changesfor the common ments' domestic budgets, overseasdevelopment good. assistance,and multilateral developmentfunds. g Fundingfor environmentalpolicy implemen- Achievingpolicy integration tation could be more efficiently managedif public and private lenders-who currently have different Over the pasttwo decades,the world hasmade great priorities, lending criteria, and reporting require- progressin identifying environmental challenges, ments-established common lending policies and many governments, industries, and expert favoring projectswith multiple environmentaland groups have made a promising start in developing social benefits.The establishmentof suchcommon policies,technologies, and programsthat can lead criteria, althoughdifficult, would facilitate coopera- to more sustainableforms of development Most of tion among different national ministries in the these successeshave been at the local or national preparationof proposalsthat take advantageof the level,within the jurisdiction of municipal, stateand linkagesamong the issues, provincial,and nationalgovernments. Small groups of nations also have dealt successfullywith com- Buildingconstituencies for change mon transboundaryissues, such as air pollution, water rights, and the protection of migratory spe- Whenever policy change involves controlling cies. "rights"or reducingeconomicgains, however, there However, continued global environmental will be resistancefrom thosewhose financial inter- degradationindicates that coordinatedinternational ests are negatively affected in the short term. In action is required to improve the global steward- addition to efforts to educatethese interestsabout ship of environmental resources the environmental necessityfor such changes,po- Thepolicymakingchallenge is to considervari- litical will is necessaryto implementeffective change ousoptions to meetpressing economic, social, and

73 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future environmental needs; recognize the links among institutions,lack of political will, limited humanand issues;andchoosethosepoliciesthatofferthegreat- financial resources,and vested interests.The poli- est chanceof producing multiple benefits-both to cies also must move beyond the prevailing the nation and the global community-without im- single-issueview of environmental problems to posing excessivecosts on nations.This will entail achieve integratedapproaches to implementation designing and implementing policies that address and build on the synergies and links among environmentalproblems in a cost-effectivemanner environmentalsystems. and that can be implemented in a world of weak

74 Part V

THE IMPORTANCE OF TIMING

GIVEN THE EMERGING PIC- tation of an international agreement to ture of the serious risks posed by global eliminate emissions of ozone-depleting environmental changes, decisionmakers substances,the ozone layer will not re- must decide how to steercurrent develop- cover until the middle of the twenty-first ment patternsin more sustainabledirec- century. Even longer time-scalesmay ap- tions, and how to do so quickly. Although ply to the issue of climate change: If we are gainingincreasing scientific under- emissionsof greenhousegases cause large- standingof the potential consequencesof scaleenvironmental impacts, as projected human-inducedchanges to the global en- by the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate vironment, it is difficult to forecast the Change,the time neededto recoverfrom timing, location, and detailedcost impli- damageswould be centuriesto millennia, cations of many of the changes. It is even if greenhousegas emissions were to important,however, to considerthese un- cease.In the caseof biological diversity, certainties in the context of information restorationor rehabilitation of degraded indicatingthat most changesto the global ecosystemswould take decadesto centu- environmentcannot be reversedquickly, ries, and for some ecosystemsmight not if at all, due to the long time-scalesassoci- be possible,while speciesextinction is ir- ated with the underlying chemical, reversible. physical, and ecological processes. Therealso is a risk that major envi- The implicationsof thesetime-scales ronmentalchanges may not be uniform or are apparent in the case of stratospheric predictableover longtimeframes.Environ- ozone depletion. Despite the implemen- mental systemscan undergo non-linear ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Time dimensionsof humanand naturalsystems Environmental systems Thelife cyclesof physical,chemical, and ecosystem processes can vary widely. Theatmospheric residence time for manygreenhouse and ozone-depletinggases exceeds a century.The equilibration of sealevel to a givenatmospheric concentration of greenhousegases takes centuries to millennia.Soil carbonpersists for morethan a century,while mostsoils store water for lessthan a month.Ecosystem rehabilitation may take decadesor longer,and speciesextinction is irreversible.In addition,some natural systems have non-linear responsesafter certain thresholds, and rapidlyswitch to newand unpredictablestates.

Projectedrise in sea level 0.8 -02 increasing at 1% per year C02 constant at twice initial value 0.6

0.4

4A 0.2

9 * . , L. JL. ,,lf 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Time (years) Therise in sealevel due to thermalexpansion alone (which accounts for abouthalf of thetotal rise over the nextdecades), followingan increase in atmosphericconcentrations of CO22 1%per vear for 70years (blue), and climate stabilization for a further500 years (red).

Source:R. Nicholls,Middlesex University in the U.K. MeteorologicalOffice. 1997. ClimateChange and Its Impact:A GlobalPerspective. BrittanicCrown Copyright.

Capital stock turnover Withoutpremature retirement, the turnovertime for capitalstock ranges from yearsto decades.Residential buildingsare usedfor manydecades, even centuries,while power plantsand other industrialstructures remainuseful for 50 yearsor more.Household goods such as refrigerators,stoves, and washersand dryers commonlylast 20 yearsor more,and automobiles and manyconsumer goods may last more than a decade.

Diffusion of new technologies Technologicaldiffusion-from the point of innovationto full implementationin the marketplace-typically takesseveral decades. During the Europeanindustrial revolution, it took about50 yearsfor coal to replace the then-predominantenergy source: fuelwood. During the currentcentury, it took a similaramount of time for oil andgas to replacecoal as the dominantglobal fossil fuel. Thewidespread adoption of a newgenera- tion of automobileswould likelytake more than 20 years,while the transitionfrom a fossilfuel economyto a predominantlycarbon-free energy economy is likely to take halfa centuryor more-long enoughto allow for the replacementof mosttechnological systems and infrastructures without a prematuredecommissioning of capital.

Social change It takesabout one humanlifetime to halt populationgrowth after a populationhas achieved replacement fertility (about2.1 childrenper woman). Social and production patterns change even more slowly. Patternsof desiredfertility, levelsand typesof consumption,and meansof generatingthat consumptionhave evolved over centuries,if not millennia.

76 The Importanceof Timing changes,rapidly shifting from one stateto another. for adaptingto or mitigating the potential effectsof Studies of ancient sediments reveal that large global environmentalchanges can be justified for changesintheglobalclimatesystemcanoccurvery other reasons,such as the abatementof local and rapidly-over periods as shortas decades.A recent regionalair andwater pollution. Recognitionof these examplewas the non-linearresponse of the ozone typesof multiple benefitsfrom carefullychosen ac- layer over Antarcticato small additionsof chlorine tions can help decisionmakersselect measures that abovea thresholdlevel of two partsper billion. The yield a wide range of benefitsand receive public incremental increasein the level of this ozone-de- and political support. pleting chemical causeda largedecline in ozone The challenge is to identify-in spiteof scien- levels when the thresholdwas reached. tific uncertainties-prudent, cost-effective, and Furthermore,rapidly increasingdemands for adaptivemanagement approaches that canbe imple- energyand biological resources-and the environ- mented now and will contribute to a more mental degradationassociated with meeting these sustainable future. Becausesignificant scientific demands-reduce the buffering capacityof the en- uncertaintiesstill exist in our understandingof glo- vironment, leaving societies more vulnerable to balwarmingand sea-level rise, forexample, a nation natural climatic fluctuationssuch as droughts. may be reluctantto relocateexisting coastal infra- The speedwith which human societycan shift structure at significant present cost to avoid less production cycles in order to respondto environ- certainfuture damages.However, siting new infra- mentalchange is limited, due to the long time-scales structureto avoid exposureto a future sea-levelrise and large investmentsneeded for the turnover of will not likely add to current costsand will yield a capital stock and the introduction of new technolo- significantpayback if sealevels do rise. While soci- gies into the marketplace.The natural inertia of eties may not be able to afford to quickly retrofit human and policy systemsfurther retardsour abil- current equipment or changepractices to respond ity to respondrapidly to changes. fully to emergingenvironmental concerns, they can Decisionmakers.haveto weigh the pros and begin to make investmentsand decisions that will consof action versusdelay. Somepeople argue that advancetheir futureability to meetthese challenges. delaying responsesto global environmental prob- While there is a natural desire to eliminate lemscan reducethe overall costsof action,because uncertainty before taking action, such an inclina- more cost-effectivetechnologies may bedeveloped tion must be tempered by the long timeframes in the future to addresscertain problems. However, associatedwith both humanand natural systems.If a delay strategycan allow the rate and eventual nationswait to respondto problemsthat are devel- magnitude of environmental changesto increase, oping today, future generationswill inherit a less magnifyingthe eventualcosts of adaptingto adverse sustainable,more degraded Earth. The inertiaof both impactson human health,ecological systems, and humanand natural systemsshould spur nationsto socioeconomicsectors. take a precautionary approach in addressingthe Decisionmakerstherefore must decide to what interlinked global environmentalproblems and act degreethey want to take precautionarymeasures. today to allow the future achievementof sustain- As discussedthroughout this report, some options able developmentgoals.

77 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Inorder to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely appliedby Statesaccording to their capabilities.Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientificcertainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.

-From the 1992Rio Declarationon Environmentand Development, a statementof principlesdefining the rights and responsibilities of nationsas they pursue human development and well-being.

78 APPENDIX 1 The Major Challenges for Development

Reducingpoverty * 1.3billion peoplelive on lessthan US$1per day; 3 billion peoplelive on lessthan US$2per day. * 1.3billion peoplelive without cleanwater, 2 billion without sanitation,and 2 billionwithout electricity. * The global developmentpath is diverging,and the gap betweenthe rich and the poor increasing. * Increaseliteracy among all groupsof people.About 130million childrenare not enrolled in primaryschools (103 millionof these are girls). Doubling available food without excessiveuse of synthetic chemicals,conversion of natural habitats, or degradation of marginal lands * Today800 million peopleare malnourished. * 25 billion tons of topsoil are lost annually. * 1.5-2.5million hectaresof irrigatedland havebeen lost to agriculturalproduction due to salinization. * Closeto three-quartersof oceanicfish stocksare depleted,declining, or fully exploited. * Availablefood will needto doublein the next 35 yearsbecause of populationand economicgrowth. * The last doubling of world food production occurred over 25 years,primarily usingirrigation, chemical inputs, high yieldingseeds, and intensivefishing techniques. The next doublingis expectedto be more difficult, and may requirean expansionof land usedfor agriculture,including forested and marginallands, as well as more intensive aquaculture. Providing energy serviceswithout environmental degradation * Manycountries are promotingfossil fuel energypolicies and practicesthat are environmentallyunsustainable and causeenvironmental degradation at the local(particulates and smog),regional (acid deposition) and global (climate change)scales. * The 2 billion peoplewithout accessto electricityusually cook usingtraditional fuels with poor ventilation,leading to a high incidenceof respiratoryinfections, diseases, and deathsin women and children. * Today,1.4 billion peopleare exposedto dangerouslevels of outdoor air pollutionleading to millionsof premature deaths. - Energyuse is projectedto doublewithin 30 years,in largepart due to economicgrowth in developingcountries. Providingaccess to water to meet basic needs * One-third of the world's populationlives in water-stressedareas where lackof water is the major reasonfor slow economicdevelopment. * In 2025 it is projectedthat two-thirds of the world's populationwill live in water stressedareas. * Poorwater and sanitationcontribute to infant mortality and low life expectancy. Developing healthy urban environments * In 1960less than 25 percentof the developingworld's populationlived in cities.This figureis projectedto increase to over 50 percent by 2005 and 66 percentby 2025. * By 2015 there will be 33 megacitieswith populationsof 8 million people, and 500 cities with populationsof I million people. - * Within 25 yearsthe number of urban poor is estimatedto reach I billion,more than doubletoday. * In developingcountries 220 million urban residentslack accessto potable drinkingwater, 350 million have no accessto basicsanitation, and I billion haveno solid wastecollection service. * Air pollution,primarily particulates and lead,is a seriousproblem in more than halfof the world's 20 major cities, leadingto significantnumbers of prematuredeaths and economiclosses.

APPENDIX 2

Global Climate Change Currenttrend . The Earth'sglobal mean surface temperature has warmed by about halfa degreeCentigrade over the last 100years. . The six warmestyears this century haveoccurred since 1990,and eight of the nextten warmesthave occurred since 1980. * The amountand spatial and temporal patterns of precipitationare changing. * Averagesea levelhas increased by 15-25centimeters during the last 100years. * Glaciersare retreatingworldwide.

Underlyingcauses of change * Humanactivities, primarily energy-use and land-use practices, are increasing the atmosphericconcentrations of greenhousegases and,in someregions, aerosols. * Greenhousegases warm the atmosphere,while aerosolstend to cool the atmosphere. * The balanceof scientificevidence suggests a discerniblehuman influence on the Earth'sclimate.

Projectedimpact of humanactivities on the climatesystem * Without globallycoordinated policies to specificallyaddress human-induced climate change,the concentrationsof greenhouse gasesin the atmosphereare projectedto increasesignificantly. The atmosphericconcentration of carbondioxide is projectedto increasefrom 360parts per million byvolume (ppmv) today to between500 and 900 ppmvin 2100,depending on populationand economicgrowth rates,energy prices, and the developmentand deployment of new technologies. * Globalmean surface temperatures are projectedto increaseby betweenI .0 and 3.5 degreesCentigrade by 2100, a rate faster than anythingobserved during the last 10,000years. * Sealevels are projectedto rise by 15-95centimeters by 2100. . Globalwarming caused by increasesin the atmosphericconcentrations of greenhousegases can only be reversedvery slowly becauseof the century-scaleatmospheric residence times of the gasesand the largethermal inertia of the oceans.

Socialand economic consequences of projectedchanges * Projectedchanges in climatemay result in: adverseeffects on humanhealth, in particularan increasein heat-stressmortality and vector-bornediseases, with potentiallytens of millionsof additionalcases of malariaper year;changes in the boundaries,structure, andfunctioning of ecologicalsystems, especially forests where there could be a near-termdie backand a shift in boundariesof between150 and 650 kilometers polewards; a decreasein agricultural production in the tropicsand subtropics, even if totalglobal food productiondoes not drop; lesspredictable availability of freshwater;and the displacementof tensof millionsof peoplefrom smallisland states and low lyingdeltaic areas, if sealevels increase by one meter . Developingcountries will be particularlyvulnerable to the impactsof climate changebecause of their limited institutionaland financialcapabilities. * The costof damageassociated with aclimate change caused by a doublingof atmosphericcarbon dioxide has been estimated to lie between 1.5and 2.0 percentof world GDFPwith damagesin developingcountries in the rangeof 2-9 percentof GDP

Technologies,policies, and measuresto mitigate the projectedchanges in climate * A rangeof cost-effectivetechnologies and policiescan be usednow in both developedand developing countries to markedly reduce the emissionsof greenhousegases from the energysupply (more efficientproduction; fuel switching,e.g., coal to gas; nuclearpower; renewableenergies, e.g., solar, wind, modern biomass,hydroelectric; and carbon sequestration) and energy de- mandsectors (more efficientbuildings, transportation, and industrysectors), as well aschanges in landmanagement, including forestryand agricultural practices. * Policymeasures to acceleratetechnology development, diffusion, and transferare available,but needwider applicationif emissionsreductions are to be achieved. . By the year 2100,the world's commercialenergy systemwill be replacedat leasttwice, providingopportunities to usenew, better-performingtechnologies over comingyears without the prematureretirement of capitalstock. Statusof internationalagreements * The FrameworkConvention on ClimateChange (FCCC) was signed at the 1992Earth Summit in Rio,and hassince been ratified by 164countries. The aim of Annex I countries(OECD andthe FSU)was to limit their emissionsof greenhousegases to their 1990level in the year 2000. * In December 1997industrialized countries agreed to reducetheir emissionsof greenhousegases by an averageof 5.2 percent duringthe period2008-2012 relative to 1990(Kyoto Protocol).

81 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Lossof Biological Diversity Currenttrend . Humanactivities are directly responsiblefor creatingagroecosystems and cultural landscapesat the expenseof impoverishmentof many naturalcommunities and the reductionin ecosystemservices. * Since 1600,484 animals and 654 plant speciesare recordedas havinggone extinct, althoughthis is almostcertainly an underestimate.Assuming animals and plants have an average lifespan of 5 to 10million years, the current extinctionrate for thesespecies has been conservatively estimated to be 50 to 100times the averageexpected natural rate. Underlyingcauses of change . The primary causesunderlying the lossof biodiversityinclude: (i) increasingdemands for biologicalresources due to increasingpopulations and economicdevelopment; (ii) inappropriateuse of technologies;(iii) failure of marketsto recognizethe true valueof biodiversity;(iv) failureof economicmarkets to appropriatethe globalvalue of biodiversity at the local level;(v) institutionalfailures to regulatethe useof biologicalresources; (vi) humanmigration, travel, and internationaltrade; and(vii) failure of peopleto considerthe long-termconsequences of their actions. . These underlyingcauses manifest themselves through the loss, fragmentation,and conversionof natural habitats; overexploitationof wild resources;introduction of exotic species;air andwater pollution;and more recently,long-term climatechange. Projectedimpact of humanactivities on biodiversity * For somegroups of vertebratesand plants, between 5 and20 percentof the identifiedspecies are alreadylisted as being threatenedwith extinctionin the foreseeablefuture. , Assumingthat recent ratesof lossof closedtropical forestscontinue (0.5-1 percentglobally per year) for the next 30 years,the equilibriumnumber of specieswould be reducedby 5-10 percent. This would be equivalentto 1,000to 10,000times faster than the expectednatural rate of speciesextinction. * Evenif speciesdo not becomeextinct, habitatloss and fragmentation will put manyof them into severedecline, includingthe lossof distinctpopulations and the severeloss of geneticdiversity that keepsany specieshealthy. Socialand economicconsequences of projectedchanges * Lossof biologicalresources and biodiversityinterferes with essentialecological functions such as regulationof water run-off, the control of soil erosion,the assimilationof wastesand purificationof water, andthe cyclingof carbon and other nutrients. 3 In turn, this threatensfood supplies,sources of wood, medicinesand energy, recreation, and tourism. . Lossof geneticdiversity will affect the abilityof ecologicalcommunities to resist or recover from disturbancesand environmentalchange, including long-term climatic change. Technologies,policies, and measuresto reducethe lossof biodiversity . The conservationand sustainableuse of biodiversityneeds to becomean integralcomponent of sectoraleconomic development(e.g., agriculture, forestry, coastal zone management)which would requirecorrecting policy and market failures. . A wide varietyof in-situ(e.g., legal protection of endangeredspecies and the establishmentof protectedareas and safe corridors),and ex-situ (arboreta, aquaria, botanical gardens, seed banks, gene banks, zoological gardens) techniques can be employedto conservebiodiversity. . The equitablesharing of benefitsfrom the use of biodiversityrequires that the local,regional, and globalbenefits of biodiversityare appropriatedat the locallevel throughthe creationof functioningmarkets. Statusof internationalagreements . The Conventionon BiologicalDiversity was signed in Rioand has since been ratified by 169countries. In general,each country hasthe obligationto conserveand sustainablyuse its own biologicaldiversity. However, mechanisms to promote this goalhave only beendeveloped to a limitedextent.

82 Appendix2 - A Synopsisof EightMajor GlobalEnvironmental Issues

Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Currenttrend . Stratosphericozone hasdecreased since 1979by about 5.4 percentat northern mid-latitudesin winter and spring; about 2.8 percentat northern mid-latitudesin summerand fall; and about 5.0 percentat southernmid-latitudes on a year-roundbasis. There is no discernibletrend in the tropicsand sub-tropics. . Everyspringtime in Antarctica(fall in the northern hemisphere)more than 60 percentof stratosphericozone is de- stroyedfor a periodof severalmonths, creating what is commonlyknown as the holein the ozonelayer. . Stratosphericozone levelsin the Arctic region havebeen unusuallylow in six of the lastnine years in late winter and spring,with typicallya 15percent depletion. Underlyingcauses of change . Humanactivities have caused a six-foldincrease in the abundanceof stratosphericchlorine, and asmaller increasein stratosphericbromine. These increases have been caused through the productionand emission of chlorofluorocarbons (usedas aerosolpropellants, solvents, air-conditioning fluids, and refrigerants),halons (used as fire retardants),and methylchloroform and carbon tetrachloride (used as solvents). . The annualspringtime 'Antarctic ozone hole" is causedby anthropogenicchlorine- and bromine-containing chemicals. * Theweight of scientificevidence suggests that the observedmid-latitude loss of ozoneis, in largepart, due to anthropogenicchlorine- and bromine-containing chemicals. Projectedimpact of humanactivities on the ozonelayer . Stratosphericozone depletionis projectedto peakwithin the next severalyears because of the effectivenessof the MontrealProtocol and subsequent amendments and adjustments. The expecteddepletion is about 6 percentat northern mid-latitudesin winter and spring,about 3 percentat northern mid-latitudesin summer and fall, and about 5 percentat southernmid-latitudes on ayear-round basis. These changes would be accompaniedby increasesin ground- levelultraviolet radiation of 7 percent,4 percent,and 6 percent,respectively. , Assumingfull compliancewith the MontrealProtocol and subsequent amendments and adjustments, the ozonelayer in Antarcticaand at mid-latitudesshould fully recover by the middleof the nextcentury. Thus important progress has been madein thisarea. Socialand economicconsequences of projectedchanges Stratosphericozone depletion leads to an increasein ground-level ultraviolet radiation, which can cause adverse consequencesfor humanhealth (melanoma and non-melanomaskin cancer, eye cataractsand possiblesuppression of the humanimmune system), ecological systems (loss of productivityin terrestrial andaquatic ecosystems), air quality(increasein oxidantlevels), and accelerated degradation of materials. Technologies,policies, and measures to mitigate the projectedchanges * Long-livedchlorofluorocarbons are beingreplaced by shorterlived halocarbons,which are environmentallymore be- nign or by non-halogen-containingchemicals. The substitutes include, hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). . However,even these shorter-lived chemicals are only transitionalsubstitutes because the HCFCsstill leadto ozone destruction,and all of them contributeto globalwarming. Statusof internationalagreements * The ViennaConvention for the Protectionof the OzoneLayer was signed in 1985,the MontrealProtocol on Substances that Depletethe Ozone Layerwas signed in 1987and was amendedand adjusted in Londonin 1991,Copenhagen in 1993,and Vienna in 1996. . The productionand consumption of all chlorofluorocarbons,carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform, and halonshas beenbanned in developedcountries as of January1996, and is to be bannedby the year 2010in developingcountries. * Control measuresfor other halocarbons,such as methylbromide and the HCFCs,have also been negotiated.

83 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Freshwater Degradation Current trends . There is an emerging'water crisis'in someregions of the world. Todayabout one-third of the world's populationis livingunder moderate or severewater stress,most notablyin the MiddleEast and North Africa. 1.3billion peoplelack access to adequatesupply of safewater and 2 billion peopledo not haveaccess to adequate sanitation.Water pollutionis continuingto causemillions of preventabledeaths every year, especially among children. 70 percentof the water withdrawn is usedfor irrigation;one-half is lostto seepageand evaporation. Hydrologicaland ecological functions of over one-halfof all wetlandshave been altered due to encroachment. * Globalfreshwater biodiversity is decliningsignificantly. * Increasingwater pollutionaffects water availability by imposingadditional costs for treatment. * Poorland use is imposinga heavyeconomic and environmental cost on water resources. Underlyingcauses * Populationgrowth, incomegrowth, andrapid urbanization are increasing water demandsfor municipal,industrial, agricultural,and hydroelectric generation. . Water is treated as a socialgood and not an economicgood, leadingto its inefficientuse, as in wastefulirrigation practices. * Excessivereliance on governmentfor water andwastewater services. Inadequaterecognition of the healthand environmental concerns associated with current practices. . Uncoordinatedmanagement of water between sectors,institutions and nations,with little regardfor conflictsor complementaritiesbetween social, economic and environmental objectives. . Populationpressures are increasingland degradation due to poor landmanagement, thus worsening soil erosionand sedimenttransport in downstreamareas. • Growingwater scarcityworsens the effectsof naturaldroughts that are endemicin manyparts of the world. Projectedimpacts of humanactivities on freshand marine water resources . In 2025,up to two-thirds of the world's population,depending upon the rate of populationgrowth, mayexperience moderateor severewater stress.These will mainlybe peopleliving in developingcountries, whose limited technical, financial,and management capabilities will posea disproportionate burden on their nationaleconomies. * Water pollutionwill continueto degradefreshwater and marine ecosystems. * Poorland use will continueto increasethe frequencyof flashfloods, and will pollute coastaland marine ecosystems. Socialand economic consequences of projectedchanges , Surfaceand groundwater quality will be further degraded. * Provisionof safewater in urbanand rural areaswill remaina majorchallenge in the future. * Humanhealth risks from inadequatesanitation will continueto bea majorconcern, especially in urbanareas. * Wateruse will needto be managedin a more holisticand multisectoral manner, i.e., agriculture,domestic, and industrial uses. * Economicimpacts of landdegradation on water resourceswill beexacerbated. * Conflicts betweensectoral uses in somenations, and betweennations in some regionsof the world, will worsen. Tensionsbetween riparian states sharing transboundary waters are likelyto intensify. Technologies,policies, and measuresto mitigatethe projectedchanges At the nationallevel, priorities include: . Placinggreater emphasis on integrated,cross-sectoral water resourcesmanagement, addressing quantity and quality concernsjointly. X Usingriver andgroundwater basins as management units and recognizing freshwater, coastal, and marine environments as a managementcontinuum. . Recognizingwater asa scarceeconomic good, andpromoting cost-effective interventions. . Supportinginnovative and participatory efforts to managewater resources,and strengthening national capacities, in- cludingfor women. Linkingland-use management with sustainable,integrated water-resources management. . Stimulatethe adoption of a wide rangeof provenwater-conserving techniques and technologies, especially water- conservingforms of agriculturalirrigation. At the more difficultinternational level, efforts need to: . Promotedialogue on basin-widecooperation in suchfields as information-sharing,capacity building, and technology transfers,as well ason regionaldevelopment programs. * Focuson achievablegoals without gettingstuck on rightsand allocation issues.

84 Appendix2 - A Synopsisof Eight Major Global EnvironmentalIssues

Desertification and Land Degradation Current trends * Desertificationand drought are problemsof a globaldimension that affectmore than 900 million peoplein 100coun- tries, someof them amongthe leastdeveloped in the world. * 3.6 billionhectares, 25 percentof the Earth'sland area, are beingaffected by land-degradation.Desertification is occur- ringto someextent on 30percent of irrigatedareas, 47 percentof rainfedagricultural lands, and 73 percentof rangelands. * An estimated1.5-2.5 million hectares of irrigatedland, 3.5-4.0 million hectaresof rainfedagricultural land, and about 35 million hectaresof rangelandslose all or part of their productivityevery year dueto land-degradationprocesses.

Underlyingcauses * Complex interactionsamong physical, biological, political, social, cultural, and economic factors cause desertification. * Populationgrowth andthe needfor food productionin ecologicallyfragile arid andsemi-arid lands, is puttingtoo much pressureon the ecosystems. * Manyland-use projects are designedwith little understandingof the socioeconomicconditions of the populationand the dynamicsand sustainability of the natural-resourcebase. . Inappropriateeconomic policies that undervaluenatural resources and encourage misuse. Projectedimpact of humanactivities on desertification * By 2025the numberof peopleadversely affected by desertificationis expectedto doubleto 1.8 billionpeople. Socialand economicconsequences of desertification * Intensivepopulation pressures and improper resourceuse degrade the land, reduce its productivity,decrease food securityand health prospects, increase poverty, and increase pressures for large-scalemigration. The annualincome lost worldwide dueto desertificationis estimatedto be$42 billion. , Desertificationand landdegradation affect the regionaland global energy balance,reduce carbon sequestrationand storage,and increase carbon emission. * Landdegradation in drylandsystems can lead to the lossof geneticand species diversity. Drylands contain a significant endowmentof plantand animal species biodiversity, a vitalsource of geneticmaterials that includeimportant sources of medical,commercial, and industrial products. * Landdegradation causes loss of productivity and impairmentof aquaticecosystems through sedimentpollution, salt intrusionand general environmental degradation. Technologies,policies, and measures to mitigate desertification * Providingfamily planning, health, and education services (especially for women). * Developingprograms to eradicatepoverty andpromote alternative livelihood systems. * Developingeffective and sustainableuses of landand naturalresources that do not endangertheir future productivity. . Integratinganti-desertification schemes into nationalenvironment and development planning. . Involvingbeneficiaries in the planningand managementof resources,to ensureequitable access. Statusof internationalagreement * The DesertificationConvention was originally signed by 116 countries in Parisin June 1994.The Conventioncame into force December26, 1996,and 128countries had ratified the conventionby mid-1998. The first Conferenceof Parties (COP) washeld in fall 1997in Rome,Italy.

85 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Deforestation and the UnsustainableUse of Forests Current trends * More than one-fifth of the world's tropicalforests have been cleared since 1960.Tropical deforestation increased from 11.8 million hectaresper year in the 1970s to 15.4million hectares(0.8 percentof total naturalforest cover) in the 1980s. Current ratesof tropical deforestationare typicallyaveraging about 0.7 percent per year. . Continuingloss of old-growth habitatin manytemperate and borealforest ecosystems,with remainingsemi-natural forest coveringless than 0.8 percentof the originalforest in WesternEurope and 1-2percent in the United States. . Seriousloss of forest qualityin manytemperate and boreal forests dueto pollution and other injuriousagents; the associatedproductivity losses in EasternEurope alone are estimatedat US$30billion per year. * Forestclearing and burning currently accountfor between7 and 30 percentof annualatmospheric carbon emissions. Underlyingcauses of change * Populationgrowth andincreasing per capitademands for forest productsare increasingpressures for forest exploitation andthe conversionof forest landsto agricultureand other forms of development,such as mining and fossil fuel extrac- tion. . Market failuresthat undervalueboth the benefitsof forest ecosystemsand the true costsof damagesassociated with forest exploitationand conversion. * Policyfailures that provide perverseincentives for forest degradationand destruction. * Institutionalfailures that leadto insecureresource access rights for forest-dependentcommunities, and a lackof trans- parencyin forest resourcepricing andallocation processes which, in turn, encouragescorruption andthe misuseof forest resources. Projectedimpact of humanactivities on forests * Decreasedglobal forest cover. , Lossof soil fertility andincrease in soil erosionfrom deforestedareas. * Lossof significantcarbon storage. Socialand economic consequences of projectedchanges * Lossof substantialbiodiversity, with forestscurrently accounting for more than 80 percentof terrestrial biodiversity. * Lossof environmentalprotection services for fragilesites and critical watersheds. , Potentialchanges in local,regional, and global climatic patterns. * Lossof resourceaccess and sustainable income support for forest-dependentcommunities. * Rentcapture by a smallelite reducesthe scopefor equitablesocial development. Technologies,policies, and measures to reducethe lossof forests * Integratedland-use planning to securea more stableforest area,with conservation,protection, and natural and planted productionforests. . Community involvementin all aspectsof forest managementand planning. * Developingmarkets for a wider rangeof forest goodsand services, including carbon storage and watershed protection services. * Low-impactharvesting technologies, less waste of harvestedproducts, and experimentation with alternativefiber sources. . Independent,third-party certificationof the sustainabilityof forest managementsystems, to encouragesales of these products. Statusof internationalagreements * The InternationalTropical Timber Agreement(ITTA) of 1983,renegotiated in 1994. . The Conventionon BiologicalDiversity, the FrameworkConvention on ClimateChange, and the Conventionto Com- bat Desertification.

86 Appendix2 - A Synopsisof Eight Major Global EnvironmentalIssues

Marine Environment and Resource Degradation Current trends * Coastalwaters havebeen contaminated by land-basedsources, particularly municipal wastes that causeeutrophication. . Redtides have increased in distributionand frequency in manycoastal seas, and there are linksto eutrophication. * Oceanicwaters alreadyshow humanimpacts, both in terms of trace contaminantsand measurabletemperature and sea-levelincrease. * Totalmarine fish production is levelingoff asthe landingsof demersalfish have remained constant since the 1970s. . More than two-thirds of the world's marine fish stocks are being fished at or beyond their level of maximum productivity. * The Atlantic Oceanwas fully fishedin 1980,the PacificOcean will be by 1999,and the remaininglarge areas are still developing. * Manyfishery resources classified as overexploited in 1992have been showing decreased yields for the last20 years,and are now producing6 million tons lessthan they did in 1985.

Underlyingcauses of change . Overfishing. * Inadequatewaste managementon land,particularly in rapidlygrowing coastal settlements. * Destructionof naturalcover of watersheds.

Projectedimpact of humanactivities on the oceans * Increasedextent of coastalareas becoming unsuitable for recreationand food production. * Lossof coral reefsand mangroves. * Contributionto sea-levelrises. * Collapseof additionalfish stocks.

Socialand economicconsequences of projectedchanges * Greater incidenceof illnessdue to consumptionof contaminatedfish and shellfish. * Declinein marinefisheries production, and increased prices resulting in lower per capitaconsumption, especially among the poor. * Unemploymentand social dislocation caused by the collapseof traditionalfisheries. . Declinein coastaltourism. * Increasedcost of coastalprotection measures.

Technologies,policies, and measures to mitigateprojected changes * Improvedmanagement of fisheries,both captureand culture. * Betterwaste management(implementation of the WashingtonDeclaration). . Improvedmonitoring of coastalwaters to preventhealth-related problems.

Status of internationalagreements * U.N. Conventionon Lawof the Sea,first signedin 1982,came into force in 1994. * Agreementfor the Implementationof the Provisionof the U.N. Conventionon Law of the SeaRelating to the Conser- vationand Managementof StraddlingFish Stocks and HighlyMigratory Fish Stocks - New York,August 1995.

87 ProtectingOur Planet- SecuringOur Future

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPS) Current trends * Persistentorganic pollutants (POPs) are chemicalsubstances that resist natural breakdown processes and bioaccumulate in fatty tissuesat differentlevels of the food chain.POPs also are semi-volatile,enabling them to movelong distances in the atmosphere. * The abilityof POPsto persistin the environmentand travel long distances has resulted in the presenceof POPsall over the world, evenin regionswhere they havenever beenused. * Most of the twelve POPscurrently addressed in internationalnegotiations have been banned or subjectedto severeuse restrictionsin manycountries for more than 20 years.Many of them, however,are still in use in manycountries, and stockpilesof obsoletePOPs exist in manyparts of the world. Underlyingcauses of issue * POPscomprise a largenumber of chemicalsthat havea wide rangeof uses.The twelve targetedPOPs are usedprima- rily in industry,agriculture, and disease vector control. Nine of themare pesticidesused for cropsand/or publichealth vector control (e.g.,control of malaria-carryingmosquitoes). * POPscan be producedcheaply compared to most other industrialchemicals. Socialand economic consequencesof use of POPs * Humanscan be exposedto POPsthrough diet, occupationalaccidents, and the environment.Exposure to very low dosesof certainPOPs can lead to cancer,damage to the centraland peripheral nervous systems, diseases of the immune system,reproductive disorders, and interferencewith infantand child development. * Humanhealth impactsmay be felt most acutelyin populationsthat consumelarge amounts of fish (e.g., subsistence fishermen),since fish havea highfat contentand thus can containhigh concentrations of POPs. The accumulationof obsoletestockpiles of pesticidesand toxic chemicals(particularly common in developingcountries) cancause leaching of thesechemicals into the soil,contaminating water resourcesused by both wildlife and people. Technologies,policies, and measures for shiftingto safer alternatives * There is sufficientevidence of harm to wildlife and humansto demonstratethat internationalaction is required to reducethe risk of POPsto healthand environment. * Shiftingfrom POPsto chemicaland non-chemicalalternatives is the key to reducingthe impact of thesehazardous substances.A highpriority is findingalternatives to hazardouschemicals for insectcontrol. * There are manysafer chemical and non-chemicalalternatives, but their developmentand dissemination will require time, money,and training. For example,replacing DDT (widelyused to control malarialmosquitoes) with less-hazardous formsof insectcontrol requirestime to planeffective actions (e.g., integrated pest management systems, consisting of the sparinguse of pest-specificpesticides and biologicalcontrol methods). * Manycountries face barriers to identifyingand controllingreleases of POPs.These include high prices of somealterna- tives,the needfor educationand training on the hazardousnature of POPs,a lackof informationon what alternatives are available,a lackof reliabledata about the current usesof POPsin eachcountry, and the need for regulations/ infrastructureto managethe use of pesticides.In manycases, technology transfer and developmentassistance are neededto bringreplacements into widespreaduse. Statusof internationalagreements * Becauseof the globalrisks posedby the long-rangetransport of POPs,the internationalcommunity is callingfor global actionto reduceand eliminate releases of thesechemicals. * The UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP) is leadingthe developmentof aglobal legally-binding agreement to minimizereleases of POPsinto the environment.The first meetingon suchan agreementwas held in Montrealin June 1998.The secondround of talks is tentativelyscheduled for early 1999,and the negotiationsare expectedto concludeby the year 2000. . Twelvespecific POPs are internationallyrecognized as requiringelimination and reduction:aldrin, chlordane,DDT dieldrin,dioxins, endrin, furans, heptachlor, hexachlorobenzene, mirex, PCBs,and toxaphene. Scientific criteria will be developedfor identifyingother POPsthat maybe added to the list later. * UNEPalso has initiated actions on sharinginformation, evaluating and monitoring implemented strategies, alternatives to POPs,identification and inventories of PCBs,available destruction capacity, and other issues.UNEP and the Intergov- ernmentalForum on ChemicalSafety (IFCS) also are conveningawareness-raising workshops in developingcountries andcountries with economiesin transition.

88 APPENDIX 3 International Scientific Assessmentsof Major Global Environmental Issues

GlobalEnvironmental Issue Assessment ClimateChange 1. CimateChange 1990: FirstAssessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) * The IPCC Scientific Assessment(Working Group I) * The IPCC ImpactsAssessment (Working Group 11) * The IPCC ResponseStrategies (Working Group 111)

2. ClimateChange 1992: * The Supplementary Report to the IPCC ScientificAssessment (WG I) * The Supplementary Report to the IPCC ImpactsAssessment (WG 11)

3. ClimateChange 1995: SecondAssessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on ClimateChange (IPCC) * The Scienceof Climate Change(WG I) * Impacts,Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change:Scientific-Technical Analyses (WG 11) * Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change (WG 111) * The IPCC Second AssessmentSynthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevantto Interpreting Article 2 of the UNFCCC 1995

4. TechnicalPapers and Special Reports: * Technologies, Policies and Measuresfor Mitigating Climate Change 1996 (WG 11): Technical Paper I * An Introduction to Simple Climate Models used in the IPCC Second Assessment Report 1997 (WG 1):Technical Paper 11 .Stabilizationof Atmospheric GreenhouseGases: Physical, Biological, and Socio- economic Implications 1997 (WG 1):Technical Paper III

- Implications of Proposed C02 Emission Limitations 1997 (WG 1):Technical Paper IV TThe RegionalImpacts of Climate Change:An Assessmentof Vulnerability 1998 (WG 11):Special Report

Stratospheric Ozone I. The Stratosphere 1981:Theory and Measurements, 1982. Depletion 2. Atmospheric Ozone 1985:Assessment of Our Understanding of the ProcessesControlling its Present Distribution and Change, 1986. 3. Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel, 1988, 1990. 4. UNEP/WMO ScientificAssessment of Ozone Depletion, 1989, 1990. 5. UNEP/WMO ScientificAssessment of Ozone Depletion, 1991, 1992. 6. Methyl Bromide: Its Atmospheric Science, Technology, and Economics, 1992. 7. UNEP/WMO ScientificAssessment of Ozone Depletion, 1994, 1995. 8. UNEP/WMO ScientificAssessment of Ozone Depletion, 1998.

Desertification UNEP, WMO: Interactions of Desertification and Climate, 1996.

Freshwater Degradation UN/SEI: Comprehensive FreshwaterAssessment, 1997.

Deforestation and Forest FAO: Forests ResourcesAssessment, 1990. Degradation

Marine Environment and FAO: State of World Fisheriesand Aquaculture, 1996. Resource Degradation

Persistent Organic Pollutants Ongoing POPs Assessment.

Biodiversity Loss UNEP: Global Biodiversity Assessment, 1995.

APPENDIX 4 International Conventions on Global Environmental Issues

Convention Objectives UN Framework Convention Article 2: Stabilizegreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphereat a levelthat would on ClimateChange (1992) preventdangerous anthropogenic interference with the climatesystem... .within a time-frame sufficientto allow ecosystemsto adaptnaturally to climatechange, to ensurethat food productionis not threatened,and to enableeconomic development to proceedin a sustainablemanner. Kyoto Protocol(1997) Industrializedcountries have agreed to reducetheir emissionsof greenhousegases by, on average,5.2 percentduring the commitmentperiod 2008-2012, relativeto 1990. UN Conventionon Biological Conservebiological diversity, the sustainableuse of its components,and the fair andequitable Diversity(1992) sharingof the benefitsarising out of the utilizationof geneticresources, including by appropriateaccess to geneticresources and by appropriatetransfer of relevanttechnologies, takinginto accountall rightsoverthose resources and technologies, and by appropriatefunding. ViennaConvention for the Protect humanhealth and the environmentagainst adverse effects resulting or likely to result Protectionof the Ozone from humanactivities which modify or are likely to modify the ozone layer. Layer(1985) MontrealProtocol (1987)as Protect the ozone layerby takingprecautionary measures to control equitablytotal global adjustedand amendedin emissionsof substancesthat depleteit, with the ultimateobjective of their eliminationon the London(1990), Copenhagen basisof developmentsin scientificknowledge, taking into accounttechnical and economic (1992),and Vienna (1995) considerationsand bearing in mindthe developmentalneeds of developingcountries. UN Conventionto Combat Combat desertificationand mitigatethe effectsof drought in countriesexperiencing serious Desertification(1994) drought and/or desertification,particularly in Africa, through effectiveaction at all levels, supportedby internationalcooperation and partnership arrangements, in the framework of an integratedapproach that is consistentwith Agenda21, with a view to contributingto the achievementof sustainabledevelopment in affectedareas. UN Conventionon the Law Establisha legalorder for the seasand oceansthat will facilitateinternational communication, of the Sea(1982) andpromote the peacefuluses of the seasand oceans, the equitableand efficient utilization of their resources,the conservationof their living resources,and the study,protection and preservationof the marineenvironment. UN Agreementon Straddling Supplementsthe 1982Law of the SeaConvention by reinforcingthe managementand FishStocks and Highly enforcementpowers of highseas fisheries management bodies and of their members. It MigratoryFish Stocks (1995) introducesprecautionary management methodology and requiresthat ecologicaland biodiversityconcerns be addressedin managementof thesestocks. Global Programof Action for Developedunder UNEP'sauspices, this programsets forth the approachby which nationscan the Protectionof the Marine cooperateand build institutionalcapacity to achievethe aims of specificinternational marine Environmentfrom Land- agreements,such as the Law of the Sea,regional seas agreements, MARPOL, the Basel BasedActivities (1995) Convention,and the LondonConvention. It offers guidancefor nationsto establishtargets to addressa host of marinepollution issues. UN Conventionon the Law Providesa legalframework to ensurethe utilization,conservation, management and protection of the Non-NavigationalUses of internationalwatercourses and the promotion of optimal andsustainable utilization for of InternationalWatercourses presentand future generations. (1997) Conventionon the Prior Developedto provide noticeand consent procedures surrounding the internationaltrade in Informed Consent(PIC) chemicalsand pesticides by facilitatinginformation about their characteristics,and by providing Procedurefor Certain for a nationaldecisionmaking process on their import andexport. HazardousChemicals and Pesticidesin International Trade (1998)

APPENDIX 5 International Agreements on Global Forest Issues

Statement Objective Proposalsfor Action Agreedby In order to implementthe Statementon ForestPrinciples, the IntergovernmentalPanel on establishes12 programs: Forestsof the Commissionon I . Nationalforest and land-useplans SustainableDevelopment, 2. Underlyingcauses of deforestation adoptedby UNGASSDecision on 3. Traditionalforest-related knowledge Forests(I1997) 4. Ecosystemsaffected by desertificationand pollution 5. Needsof countrieswith low forest cover 6. Financialassistance and technology transfer 7. Forestassessment 8. Valuationof forest benefits 9. Criteria and indicators 10. Trade andthe environment I I. Internationalorganizations 12. Legalmechanisms

Non-legallyBinding Authoritative Contributeto the management,conservation, and sustainable Statementof Principlesfor a developmentof forestsand providefor their multipleand Global Consensuson the complementaryfunctions and uses. Management,Conservation, and SustainableDevelopment of All Typesof Forests(I1992)

APPENDIX 6 Selected Readings

GlobalEnvironmental Assessments ClimateChange 1. Climate Change1995: Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon ClimateChange (IPCC). * TheScience of ClimateChange (WG I) - CambridgeUniversity Press, Cambridge,UK, 1996. * Impacts,Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change:Scientific- TechnicalAnalyses (WG II) - CambridgeUniversity Press, New York, USA,1996. * Economicand Social Dimensionsof ClimateChange (WG III) - CambridgeUniversity Press, New York, USA, 1996. * The IPCCSecond Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical InformationRelevant to InterpretingArticle 2 of the UNFCCC- WMO, Geneva,1996. 2. TechnicalPapers and SpecialReports: * Technologies,Policies, and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change 1996(WG Il): TechnicalPaper I, IPCC- WMO, Geneva,1996. * TheRegional Impacts of Climate Change:An Assessmentof Vulnerability1998 (WG Il): SpecialReport. Cambridge University Press,New York, USA,1998.

StratosphericOzone Depletion 1. ScientificAssessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994,WMO Global Ozone Researchand Monitoring ProjectReport No. 37 (NOAA, NASA,UNEP, WMO), WMO, 1995. 2. ScientificAssessment of Ozone Depletion: 1998,WMO Global Ozone Researchand Monitoring ProjectReport No. 44 (UNEP,WMO, NOAA, NASA,European Union) WMO, 1999.

Desertification UNEP:World Atlasof Desertification, UNEP,Nairobi, and EdwardArnold, London,1992.

FreshwaterDegradation ComprehensiveAssessment of the FreshwaterResources of the World, UN/SEI,WMO, Geneva,1997.

Deforestationand ForestDegradation ForestResources Assessment, FAO, Rome,1990.

Marine Environmentand Resource TheState of World FisheriesandAquaculture 1996,FAO, Rome,1997. Degradation

PersistentOrganic Pollutants Ongoing POPsassessment (initiated by UNEPGoverning Council in May 1995).

BiodiversityLoss GlobalBiodiversityAssessment, UNEP, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,UK, 1995.

United Nations 1. AGENDA21. Adoptedby the UN Conferenceon Environmentand Development(UNCED) at Rio de Janeiro,13 August,1992. 2. Global EnvironmentOutlook (GEO).UNEP, Oxford University Press,New York, 1997.

TheWorld Bank 1. Expandingthe Measureof Wealth: Indicatorsof Environmentally SustainableDevelopment, The World Bank,Washington, D.C., 1997. 2. FiveYears after Rio: Innovationsin EnvironmentalPolicy, The World Bank, Washington,D.C., 1997.

UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME P.O. Box 30552 UNEP Nairobi, Kenya UNEP Tel: 254 2 621 234 Fax: 254 2 226 886 http://www.unep.org

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