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INTERNATIONAL POLICY ISSUES

Beginning with this issue, Oceanography will publish a regular column on interna- tional policy issues of interest to the oceanographic community. Both and envi- ronmental policy issues will be addressed. The first article in the series concerns the international scientific assessment process. The article provides a concise overview of ongoing assessment activities related to bio- diversity, stratospheric depletion, and change, describes the assessment process, and explains the crucial role of such assessments in international and domestic policy formulation, The column also encourages top-notch oceanographers to contribute to these assessment activities, which--although extremely demanding in terms of time and effort--are essential in order to build consensus on and find solutions to global en- vironmental problems. Topics under consideration for future columns include the key conclusions of the Assessment regarding ocean ecosystems, issues surrounding ocean-related geoengineering (iron fertilization, ocean dumping, disposal, etc.), the relative costs and benefits of coordinated versus individual research projects, the status of women in oceanography, and the concept of as applied to the world's oceans. Should you have an interest in any of these topics or suggestions for other appropriate issues, please contact me at the e-mail address listed below. In order to foster broader international participation in The Oceanography Society, submis- sions from non-U.S, experts are particularly welcome. Responses to items published in this column in the form of letters to the editor are welcome.

PROVIDING ADVICE TO POLICYMAKERS: INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL ASSESSMENTS OF GLOBAL AND CHALLENGES FOR THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY

By , Richard Moss and Anne Arquit Niederberger

THE DRAMATIC INCREASE in world popu- ronmental issues were local, regional, or nologies and strategies for dealing with lation and industrial activities during the continental in scale and were primarily such issues. This is providing new oppor- last century has given rise to concern that linked to air and . More tunities for research as well as increasing human activities are adversely affecting recently, our concerns have increasingly the responsibilities for participation in the environment at all geographic scales, focused on global-scale issues. In particu- scientific assessments designed to provide Until the last decade or so, the key envi- lar, there are three interrelated global- timely information for decision-making. scale environmental issues that affect Our current understanding of each of both human well-being and the quality of these issues can be summarized as fol- Robert Watson, Associate Director for Environ- and that also threaten the very foun- lows. ment, White House Office of Science and Technology dation of sustainable development: Policy, Executive Office of the President, 17th and Pennsylvania Aves., NW, Washington, DC 20502. stratospheric ozone depletion, loss of bio- Stratospheric ozone depletion has been USA {Present address: The , 1818 H logical diversity, and . The observed throughout the year at all lat- Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA). Richard scientific community is coming under in- itudes except the tropics and has been Moss, Head. IPCC WGII Technical Support Unit, creasing pressure to improve humanity's definitively linked to the anthropogenic 300 D Street, SW, Washington, DC 20024, USA. Anne Arquit Niederberger, Deputy Director, Forum understanding of key processes, to esti- emissions of - and - for Climate and , Swiss Academy of mate the potential impacts of global envi- containing chemicals into the atmo- , Baerenplatz2, 3011 Bern, Switzerland. ronmental change, and to evaluate tech- sphere. Ozone depletion leads to an in-

140 OCEANOGRAPHY'VoI.9. No. 2°1996 crease in biologically damaging ultra- and regional patterns of climate change. security. However, in many developing violet radiation reaching the 's Another key issue is how , coral countries the scientific and technical in- surface, with adverse consequences for reefs, and coastal wetlands will be af- frastructure is inadequate to address criti- human health (, eye fected by climate change. With respect to cal societal challenges associated with , and suppression of the im- the loss of biological diversity, there are sustainable development. mune system) and terrestrial and significant concerns associated with Thus the recognition of the risks asso- aquatic ecosystems (loss of productiv- coastal and open ocean ecosystems. ciated with these global environmental is- ity and diversity). In addition, because In response to the scientific informa- sues and the need to find sustainable so- stratospheric ozone is a greenhouse tion and assessments provided by the sci- lutions to them is placing additional gas, changes in its abundance and dis- entific and environmental communities, demands on the scientific community: tribution affect the Earth's climate. the importance of these three environ- • The increasing pressures for decreasing • Loss of biological diversity is occur- mental issues has now been recognized research funds are forcing researchers ring at an unprecedented rate because by governments and the private sector. to spend ever more time on developing of the loss, fragmentation, degradation, This recognition has resulted in three research proposals: and conversion of natural habitats: global conventions, each signed and • because of the large geographic scales over-exploitation of wild ; the ratified by hundreds of countries: ( 1 } the involved, improved understanding and introduction of nonnative species; and Vienna Convention for the Protection of monitoring of global environmental is- pollution of , water, and atmo- the signed in 1985, its Mon- sues such as ozone depletion and cli- sphere. Anthropogenic climate change treal Protocol on Substances that Deplete mate change require research programs is an additional newly emerging threat the Ozone Layer signed in 1987, and the to become increasingly coordinated at to biodiversity. Loss of biological di- London ( 1991 ), Copenhagen (1993), and the national and international level, re- versity (genetic, species, and ecosys- Vienna (1995) amendments and adjust- quiring a significant investment in time tem diversity) results in a reduction in ments: (2) the Convention on Biological for planning by researchers: sources of , fiber, and medicines Diversity, which was signed in 1992 at • the environmental issues are both inter- and a loss of regional and global envi- the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, and multi-disciplinary, thus requiring ronmental services such as water Brazil: and (3) the Framework Conven- unprecedented collaboration between purification, soil maintenance, and nu- tion on Climate Change, also signed in natural scientists, social scientists, and trient cycling. 1992 at the Earth Summit. technologists: • The Earth's climate is becoming Each of these conventions acknowl- • scientific and technical assessments are warmer, and the influence of human edges the importance of continued re- needed to provide to policymakers the activities is now discernible in the ob- search, monitoring, and scientific and information needed for prudent policy servational record. Human-induced cli- technical assessments, and the need for formulation: and mate change--which is predicted to scientific and technical information to de- • the policy relevance of the research de- occur as a result of increasing atmo- velop prudent, cost-effective national and mands that the scientific and technical spheric concentrations of radiatively international policies. And now that the communities interact with decision active trace gases such as carbon diox- conventions are in place, governments, in makers at all levels and across sectors: ide, methane, , chloroftuo- consultation with the private sector and local, state, national, and international rocarbons, and tropospheric ozone-- environmental organizations, are deliber- government policymakers and the pri- leads to changes in temperature, ating what further actions must be taken vate sector. precipitation, and severe weather (e.g., to reduce stratospheric ozone depletion, , , high-temperature to conserve, sustainably use and equi- Many of these demands actually rep- episodes). These changes in climate tably share the benefits of biodiversity, resent significant opportunities for the re- are expected to have adverse effects on and to limit and adapt to climate change. search community. In particular, the human health (increases in heat stress Policymakers are now relying on the sci- need to conduct assessments of scientific mortality and the incidence of vector- entific community to provide answers to and technical information provides an borne and non-vector-borne diseases). complex scientific and technical issues as opportunity to communicate the state of socioeconomic systems (agricultural they arise in the convention processes. knowledge to policymakers in a form production, fisheries, forestry, human They are expecting that scientific uncer- that they can understand and apply. To settlements) and terrestrial and aquatic tainties be reduced and that technical or be credible as a common basis for deci- ecosystems. policy solutions to these problems be sion making in the national and interna- identified and their efficacy and cost-ef- tional context, such assessments must be Ocean ecosystems will be affected by fectiveness assessed. transparent, objective, and comprehen- all three issues: moreover, the critical As a result, some developed countries sive. They must be prepared and re- role of the oceans in regulating climate are putting an increasing percentage of viewed by experts (not advocates or lob- and biodiversity could be altered also. In- research funds aside for environmental byists!) from both developing and creased UV-B penetration resulting from research, recognizing that it can assist in industrialized countries, and they must depletion of stratospheric ozone is ex- achieving a number of societal goals: im- result in a concise and unambiguous pected to affect phytoplankton and ocean proved health and increased life ex- statement of the consensus view of what productivity. The oceans also play a key pectancy for their citizens, economic is known, unknown, and uncertain about but not adequately understood role in the growth and job creation, improved envi- the issue in question. Finally, the assess- and in controlling the rate ronmental quality, and enhanced national ments must be free of policy recommen-

OCEANOGRAPHY'VoI.9, No. 2"1996 I 4 1 dations, because decision making de- which issues are truly "known" with a ticipation of government representatives pends on more than scientific and techni- high degree of confidence. in both scoping and reviewing the as- cal information alone. This having been said, sound science sessments-which has been frustrating to Faced with these demands, it is not and risk assessments form a crucial basis some participating scientists--policy- surprising that there has been some criti- for policy making to address these and makers develop interest in the results of cism of assessment efforts from the sci- other environmental issues. Ozone as- scientific research, and thus are more entific community. The amount of effort sessments were issued in 1981, 1985, likely to face up to the policy implica- that individual scientists must invest in 1989, 1991 and 1994; a biodiversity as- tions of new scientific information. Ulti- drafting, revising, and presenting the as- sessment was completed in 1995; and mately the international assessments sessments is often far greater than origi- major climate change assessments were have provided the justification for action, nally anticipated, and authors are not completed in 1990 and 1995, with special the tools for analysis, and the informa- always funded to contribute to the assess- reports in 1992 and 1994. Because the in- tion needed to develop cost-effective ment process. Thus there is a natural ternational assessments conducted to date strategies to address these environmental trade-off between the costs and benefits represent the views of the large majority threats. of contributing to an assessment versus of the scientific community--including The need for scientific assessments publishing a paper in a recognized sci- scientists from academia, government will continue in the future, and we hope entific journal. Procedural issues have , environmental organizations, that the world's best oceanographers will also led to some frustration among indi- and industry--they have provided a com- continue to support and contribute to vidual scientists, e.g., the short time al- monly accepted basis from which to dis- such efforts. This may mean some lowed for revisions, the role of govern- cuss and negotiate legally binding inter- sacrifice and a great deal of effort on the ments in reviewing highly technical national environmental agreements and to part of individual scientists, but the scientific material or the fact that building develop effective policies and measures benefits to society--and to the research a consensus view requires judgement on at the national level. Because of the par- community---can be profound. O

142 OCEANOGRAPHY'Vo|. 9, NO. 2.1996