Our Fragile Atmosphere: The Greenhouse Effect and Ozone Depletion

eldom have Senvironmental issues brought such a chilling awareness of the vu lnerabilitv of the human race as the ·~ greenhouse effect" anstratosphere. This EPA journal explores these problems and their implicati ons for the fut ure. EPA Adm inistrator Lee M. Thomas sets a perspecti ve and presents the: Age ncy's ideas on how to approach these two problmns. One of the ori gi nator:, of the ozone dcplP.! ion t hoory ~ explains that theory in ~ layman's terms. J\ physician « di scusses the lhrcat of sk in c ~ cancer posed by a depleled \'> t 1;;;.;."'-..-.:...:..;. ozone layer. 1\ reprnscnlntive of an industrial organization ~ c:::-.::.:::-~:::::.::~~_..."""'"~~ looks at possibl1: nction !hat mighl be lakcn lo limit certain chemicals !hat nre useful to ind ustrv and consumms. bu! '~hich mny cont ri butc1 lo ozone depletion. The !l wory lwh in cl !lw grecnhousu effcct- tlrn other s uspected almosplw ric danger to n;1rth 's environmcrn t is expl<1 i11 cd by l l lescience that countrv. J\ historical fea ture environmental cleanup. subr:on.lll1i1l ee hc :ari ngs on is making ii possibl e to reports on two li ttl e- noti ced. Thi s issue of EPA ]ournnl these planetary prublc!ms, understand the phenomena but major smog episodes in concludes with two regul ar offers u kc !.\' Co 11 grcss io11a l of the greenhouse effect and few York City in 1953 and feat ures. 0 \11{!\V. ozone laver rncl uc: lion. 1966. And a fina l arti cle In an unrelated art icle. a U.S. e1 1viro11m ental leader United Stat-es Office of Vol me 12 Environmental Protection Public Affairs (A-107) Number 10 Agency Washington DC 20460 December 1986 oEPA JOURNAL

Lee M. Thomas. Admini trator Jennifer Joy Wilson, Assi tant Adminis trato r for Exte rnal Affairs Linda Wilson Reed, Director, Office o f Public Affair

John Heritage, Editor Susan Tejada, Associate Editor Jack Lewis, Assistant Editor Margherita Pryor, Contributing Editor

EPA is clrnrged b1· Congress to pro­ Global Challenges The Greenhouse Effect: Viewpoint: tect the nation's land. air. and at EPA An Explanation New Thinking water svstems. Und er a mandate of nationai environmental laws, the by Lee M . Thomas 2 by Dr. David Rind 12 in American agency strives to formula!• and im­ Environmentalism plement acti ons whi ch lead to a A Threat to Earth's The Dangers from by Frederic 0. Krupp 26 compatible balance betll'een hu­ man activiti es ;rnd th e ahi lit1· of Protective Shield Climate Warming: natura l systems to support a·nd by Or. F. Sherwood A Public Awakening Environmental Annals: nurture life. Rowland 4 by Rafe Pomeran ce 15 Two "Killer Smogs" The EPA journal is published ii\' the Headlines Missed the U.S. Environmental Protecti on Agency. The Admini ·trator of EP1\ Skin Cancer: Rising Sea Levels: by Roy Popkin 27 has determined that th e publica­ The Price for The Impact They Pose tion of this period ical is nccessar\· a Depleted Ozone Layer by James G. Titu s 17 Is Environmental Control in the transaction of th e public by M edwin M. Minlz is. an Expense busin ess required by lall' of this agency. Use of funds for printing M.O. 7 Ill Winds or an Investment? this periodica l has been appru1·ed Carry No Visas by Don Bronkema 30 by the Director of the Office of Ozone Protection: by Dr. Mostafa K. T o lba 21 Management and Budget . Views The Need for Update 31 expressed by authors do not neces­ sarily reflect EP /\ pol icy. Contribu­ a Global Solution Finding Answers tions and inqu iries should be ad­ by Richard Barnett 10 by Joh n H. Chafee 22 Awards and dressed to th e Editor (/\-107). Appointments n Waterside Mall. 40 t M St.. S. IV., The Science Washington, DC 20460. i\:o pennis­ sion necessary to reproduce con­ of Global Pollution tents except copyrighted photos by Jo hn S. Hoffman. and other ma terials. John Bruce W e ll s . and Stephen R. Seide l 2..i

Front Cover: Sun ot horiwn. 11csign Credits: Cosco. ME. Thcfrccnhousc effect Hobert I· lnnngnn : ond deplet ion o th e strn tosphcric Hon Fon-oh: ozone layer illustrolc the frogilii.1' Donno \\ 'os.d J.. i 11 ·s J..~ ' i. of our c1tmusphere ond th e l' ulnerobi li ty oJ li fe 011 th e p/oiwt. Ph oto by Occrn 1\bromson. Folio. In c.

EPA Journal Subscriptions The annuiil rate fur subscribers in the U.S. for the l~ P ;\ ]ournrd is $20.00. The charge to subscribers I Name - First. Last PLEASE PRINT in fo reign countries is S25.00 a year. The pri ce of a single cop1· of I I I I I the EPA journol is $2 .00 in thi s Company Name or Add1t1onal Address Line countrv and $2.50 if se nt to a for­ eign countrv. Prices in clude mail costs. Subscri j>t ions tu th e El'A /ournol ;1s we I as to other federal Street Address government magazines arc h<1nd led only by th e U.S. Go1'ernment Print­ I. I I I I ing Office. An yone wishing to sub­ scribe to the EPA /ou rnol should City IZ ip Code fi ll in th e form at right and enclose a check or money order payable to I. I I I I the Superintendent of Documents. The requests should be mailed to: 0 Payment enclosed (Ma e checks payable to Superintendent of Documents) Superintendent of Documents. GPO. vVa shington. DC 20402. 0 Charge to my Deposit Account No .. . . Global Challenges at EPA by Lee M. Thomas

mericans enjoy one of the world's A highest standards of living. Our technological achievements during the past half century are unequalled. They have contributed significantly to improvements in our overall quality of life. Today, we live longer and better than ever before. We have more conveniences. More labor-saving devices. More products and services designed to make our lives comfortable. Unfortunately, the advances that contributed to the standard of living we enjoy today carried with them hidden costs. This is particularly true when we consider the environmental costs. As we improved our material \Nell-being, the qual ity of our environment suffered from smokestacks, discharge pipes, and dumps that contaminated our air, water, and land. Since 1970, we have made tremendous progress in addressing and remedying our past environmental mistakes. The a ir in our cities is far cleaner today thun it was 20 yeurs ago. The quality of thousands of miles of rivers and streams has improved. And example, pollutants removed from the years, and particularly since the end of our hazardous waste and toxics water and incinerated may threaten th e World War II. The burning of coal, oil, programs are protecting our land and air. If we place them on the land. they and natura l gas today adds about five ground-wnter resources. may ultimately contaminate our ground gigatons of carbon dioxide to the But the job of managing and water. atmosphere each year. Combustion of improving the quality of our We are learning, too, that some of the these same fossil fuels and in creased en vironment is far from fini shed. challenges we face today are global in uses of ferti lizers add substantial Despite our successes w ith trnditional nature. Both the sour e of problems quantities of nitrous oxides as well. pollutants, new chnllenges are at hand. and the solutions to them are Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), These new chall enges are sign ificantly international in scope. Depletion of the discovered in the 1930s, are widely differen t from those we have al ready stratospheric ozone layer is one used as refrigerants, aerosol propellants, met. They are more subtle and more example. The phenomenon of global fo am-blowing agents, and solvents. The complex. No longer are \·Ve fighting warming - the so-called greenhouse atmospheric levels of CFCs are growing gross emissions from obvious sources. effect - is another. at a rate of five lo seven percent Ra ther, we ure confronting trace toxics We do not fullv understand either. annually. in our air, water, and food . Uncertainties exis t concerning the And methane from a variety of We are dealing with the cross-media causes of ozone depletion and sources, many of them agricu ltural. has effects of pollution control - the greenhouse warming. The complex also been added to the atmosphere in movement of contaminants from one processes that lead to both are not full y substantial quantities during recent environment al medium to another. For defined. decades. There is consensus, however, that Many scientists believe that these both are due to increased industrial and chemicals are causing important (Thomos is 1\ dministrotor of EPA. ) agricultural act ivi ty over the past 200 changes in the chemical composition of our atmosphere. Some are ozone

2 EPA JOURNAL Sunsl'f 01·(•r the Atlnntic On'm1. The lulur<' irnrrning o( the plo ne t thP gn~enhousc ctlect hos serious implicotions for ris ing sc•o /pn•ls oncl changing wentl!f• r potterns .

depleters. Others partially offset rulemaking, and enforcement - are challenges. Our goal. of course, must be depletion. But there is growing concern inadequate to deal '"' ith this n ew class to safeguard human health and the that increased use of CFCs could lead to of problems. The United States has environment. net ozone de pletion. take n some important regulatory steps Second, we must realize tha t there Stratospheric ozone acts as a shield to control CFCs (we ba nned their use in will always be scientific uncertainty against harmful solar radiation. A aerosols in 1978), and we are committed associated with these complex s ignificant reduction of ozone in the to a decision on the n eed for addition al problems. We will have to be prepared upper atmos phere could mean long-term rules by ovember 1987. But more will to act d espite these uncertainties. increases in the inc idence of skin cancer h ave to be done beyond these unilateral Third. if w e a re to succeed in a nd cataracts worldwide. It could also actions. addressing global issues. w e must deal have significant impacts o n our Recognizing this, EPA's stratospheric with them in a global context. NEP terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. ozone protection program incorporates has shown strong interest in the area of At the sam e time, the gases affecting concurrent domestic and international ozone depletio n. 'v\ e vvi ll work with ozone also exhibit greenhouse efforts leading to a coupled decision them to provide the leadership needed properties. Tha t is, they trap solar during the next ear on an international to move forvva rd. en ergy in the atmosphere. Thus, they protocol and possible domesti c Fourth, w e must conduct our w ork in could contribute to future warming of regulations. We initiated the program a way that reflects the urge ncy of the the earth. over a year ago. problems we face but that does not T h e effects of global warming over the Since then, we have h eld a number of create undue alarm. We do not believe long term go well beyond higher domestic public w o rksh ops. participated we face imminent dangers. Our te mperatures. The greenhouse effect in two international workshops approach to solving these problems could a lso result in substa ntially altered sponsored by the United Nations should be one of orderlv a n d rainfall patte rns, increases in sea level, Environment Programme (UNEP), and coop erative acti o n that gets the job done loss of soil mois ture, and changes in the co-sponsored a major scientific in a way that will protect human health movem ent of storms. These shifts could conference on the effects of ozone and th e e nvironme nt and min im ize cost aff ect agriculture , forests , wetlands, depletion and climate. ln addition , we a nd d isruption. w a ter resources, a nd coastal a reas. h ave cond uc ted a m ajor scienti fic r isk Fifth , wherever possible our a tions While concerns about these problems assessment, which has just been should be techno logy-forcing. We need are urgent, we do not be li eve tba t harm reviewed b y the EPA Science Advisory strong incentives for the development can yet be a ttributed directly to them. Board. and use of substitute c hemicals that are On tbe other hand, the nature of both More recently, the U.S. played a both acceptable to industry and ozone depletion and globa l warming are leading role in the first round of consumers. yet benign to human health such that if \Ne wait until hea lth and international n egotiations o n an ozone and the e nvironment. environmental impacts are manifest it layer protocol, held in Geneva during Finally, w e must devise solutions that might be too late to take adequa te ste ps the fi rst w eek of December. With EPA are equitable to all nations, including to address these problems. assistan ce, the U.S. d e legation was a our own. The United States has led the As we look at solutions, w e mus t s trong advocate of the view that way in regulating CFCs, but we cannot recognize the unusua l nature of these m eaningful n ear- a nd long-term solve internat ional environmental new c hallenges. For both ozone m easures are n eeded to protect the problems a lone. A ll nations a nd their d epleti o n and the greenhouse effect w e ozone layer. Although there is still a industries should help shoulde r the are faced w ith proble m s where the long w ay to go. l am h opeful that we economic burde ns of protec ti ng the sources of pollution, as well as the will see a n international protocol global e nvironment. potential impacts, are distributed a dopted in 1987. Dealing with global e nvironmental unevenly throughout the world - not Our experie n ces with the ozone problems li ke ozone depletion a nd just between two countries or within problem have helped us to identify a greenhouse w armin g will be one of this one region. Furtherm ore, in neither case number of elements tha t I a m convinced Agency 's most d iffi cult c hallenges in will the impacts for a particular country will come into play as we strive to the years a head. I be lieve w e are well on n ecessarily be proportional to its level address this new generation of o ur way to establis hing the international of e missions of the gases in questio n. inte rnational e n vironme ntal ch allenges. fram ework of scientific researc h and Thus, traditiona l approaches to First, we must understand the cooperative actions that w il l be critical problem solving - dom esti c legislation, magnitude of global environmental to our success. 0

DEC EM BER 1986 3 he recent discovery tha t an "ozone The Role of Ozone with larger quantities of UV-B near the T hole" has developed over Antarcticn Equator th an at the poles. This natural has once ngain foc used public a tt ention Unlike tbe abundant atmospheric gases variation in exposure to UV-B p rovides and concern on this critical oxygen and nitrogen , ozone (O:i) a real-life experime ntal setting which com poncn t of the earth ·s atmosphe re. represents only a tiny fraction of the h as supplied ample evidence of the Ba sed on extensive m easurem ents from total atmosphere, w ith an average global potential damage from UV-B radiation both ground- and satellite-based concentration of about 300 parts per to h uman health [e.g. skin cancer) and instruments, we can s late w ith certainty billion in volum e (300ppbv). If all of the to the environm ent. that very large decrenses in ozone have ozon e were compressed into a ba nd of Complex natural fo rces a re occurred above Antarctica over the past pure gas, the layer around the earth continually at work creating a nd d ecade during the months of Septembe r would be only three millimeters thick. destroying ozone in the atmosphere . through m id- ovember. Ozone is the Despite its limited quantity ozone This dyn am ic equilibrium involves first key atm ospheric gas whic h s hields plays a criti cal role in absorbing the breakdown of individual m olecules us- and all other biologica l incoming solar radiation. The sun gives of oxygen (Oz) into atomic oxygen (0) sp ecies- against damaging solar off radia tion across a broad spectrum. through its absorption of ultraviole t ultraviolet rad iatio11. While the causes The li ght d etectable by the hum an e e radiation. Jn turn, each atomic oxygen of the massive seasonal loss of ozone covers the ra nge from approximately normally combin es with an ad d itional over Antarcti ca a re not yet fully 400 to 700 nanometers in wavelength. molecu le of 0 2 to form zone 0 :1• understood , a 11d it s implicati ons for the or from violet to red in colo r. Much of Destruction of ozone cnn be caused bv ozone layer above the rest of the earth the "near" ultraviolet radia ti on (320-400 the occasiona l recombination of ozone are also uncertai11 (see box o n page 6), nanometers) also reaches the ground with atomic oxygen to form tvvo them can be no doubt tha t the gases a nd can be tolerated by biological m olecules o f diatomic oxygen. As long released from ·ertain human activities species a t the surface. In contrast, the as the earth's sunlit atmosphere llrP. threatening the integrity of this adjacent segment of the ultraviolet contains m olecular oxygen. as it has fo r protec:tivn ozone layer. spectrum (UV-8, 290-320 nanometers) more than one billion vears, ozon e will bas been shown to be biologically be m aintained in this d ynamic balance (Dr. Hrndond is l'roft•ssor of C/ir•misln'. damaging. Fortun ately, m ost of this between fo rmation and .destruction. This IJonit>I C. :\ldricli. Jr .. Enc/011·1 ·d Choir, radia tion is absorbed b ozone high in bala n ce can be altered, however, by the f '11in•rsit1 of Ccdilornir1, JrTirH'. u11d is the earth 's a tmosphere. However, som e introduction into the atmosphere of one> of tlw originotors of th e• ozorn• does penetrate lo the earth's s urfa ce, additio nal ozone destroying chemicnls, clq1/1•t ion II won" )

4 EPA JOURNAL ....-

------which shift the equilibrium tov.. a rd and react with the ozone in one to tvvo smaller average concentrations of ozone. seconds. creating c hlorine oxide as a 1974 saw the first suggestion that a by-product. In a subsequent renction. group of chemicals k nown as the c hlorine oxide releases its ox:·:gen chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, could be atom to form molecular o ygcn. and the a major avenue for adding chlorine to chlorine a tom is freed once again to the a tmosphere and disturbing the re peat the process of destroying ozone. ozone ba lance. Through this continuing c ycle of CFC's were first developed by reactions, each chlorine atom acts as a Gen eral Motors in the 1930s, after a catalyst destroying about 100.000 de liberate search for an ammonia molecules of ozone before the ch ain s u i;)s titute in refrigeration uses. The reaction is permanently ended. Th results of this search produced a fami ly atmospheric lifetimes fo r the most of ch emicals with properties ideal for commonly used CFC compo unds m any a pplications beyond refri geration. (CFC-11 . CFC-1 2, and CFC-13). in fa ct. Che mically inert, nontoxic, and easily have been estimated to be from 75 to liquified , CFCs are now used in air 110 ears. conditioning, packaging. and insulation. The chemistry of the atmosphere is as a solve nt for clean ing electronic far more complicated tlrn11 just these circuit boards, and as aerosol simple reactions invoh·ing chlorine. propella n ts. Current a tmospheric models require lt is this very absen ce of c hemical more than 160 ch emical react ions to reactivity tha t makes CFCs so dangerous simulate observed c hemical f 'a lures in to the ozone layer. Unlike less in ert the a tmosphe re. Despite this compo unds, CFCs are not destroyed o r complexit " however, a clear link exists removed in the lower a tmos phere b / betwee n the introduct ion of c hlorine rainout, oxidation, or s unlight. Jnstead, from CFCs and the destruction of ozone th ey drift into the uppe r atmosph e re in the upper atmosphere. where the ir c hlorine compon e nts Becau se the widespread use of CFCs are released into the atmos phe re by industry a nd cons umers is unde r the effects of ultraviole t essentially a post- I 970 phenomenon. radiation, and vvh ere they e ncounter with yearly releases since 197.:t and destroy ozone. Almost all of approac hing one million tons these freed chlorine atoms fi n d worldwide, the observed atmospheric concentrations of all three major CFCs A prole<.:t i1·e lover of ozu1w in the llflJ!<'l' have risen sharply. Th "naturnl" lm·cl of otmosplwrC' normed/\' pn•1·e11ts lrnm1fuf chlorine in the a tmosphere before 1900 ultrc11·io/H rndiolion _lrn 111 l'Ccwhing llH' is be lieved to have been ·1bo ut O.li ppb\·, eurth's s11rloc:t'. I iu11·e1·r·r. CFCs r·111i lt ed almost entirely from methyl c hloride. from the prnduf'fio11 cmd us1• ol soll'f•nts. rf'frigf'rolors. oil' c:onditio11C'rs. The µrese nt c hlo rine level is und lourn-hlm1·i11g U,!2t.•nts drill into !lie about 3.5 ppbv, and is increasing l.J y 11p1icr otmosplwrC' und 1·1·e11ltwlf.1· m o re than 1.0 ppbv per decade. Th ' dt!compos1• 1111dPr thl' inllw•nc:r' o/ excellent correla tion betwee n the ultrm·iolf'l rudiution. TliC' f'hlori rw increase in atmosphe ri c chlorine and re/C'usl'd in this procC'ss rnoc:ts 11·ith one/ the ozone losses during the r\ntarctic dt'sfroys ozo1w in u co11ti11ui11g c_n:/r• of spring (see box) provides strong n net ions thut men· Josi UJJ to u lwncln•cl circums tantia l evidence that CFCs a re rew·s CJ/' more. Tlie result could IH' u involved in this process. ihi1111i11g ol tlw ozone fuyer nncl on Continued to next page e1•1rntuul irH.n·osr• in ullrnl'iolut rudrution crt I/JC' f'Clf'tlr's surlw:r'. lllJJJJI Ultraviolet Rad iation a ... CFC' s

DECE M BER 1986 Safeguarding Our Atmosphere the CFCs as possessing severe potential CFC-12. This compound has a negligible for ozone depletion. Despite this potential for ozone depletion because it CFCs have a long record as very useful growing scientific record against CFCs, does not contain chlorine, but is not yet chemicals, contributi ng across a broad world use continues to increase as more in large-scale manufacture. range of products to our current and more nations seek to improve their Alternatively, industries can begin to standard of living. At the same time, living standards using CFC-based design closed industrial processes with they present a grave environmental risk products. recycling which could dramatically which can seri ously affect the basic Industry's search for less harmful reduce emissions by using these conditions of life for both current and chemicals a half century ago led to the potentially harmful chemicals more future generations. The risks from ozone discovery of the current family of CFCs, efficiently. depletion have been described in and that same kind of ingenuity must Research into reducing the global use reports from the National Academy of now be harnessed to find new solutions. of CFCs cannot wait for the final Sciences since 1976 and include not only For example, hydrogen-containing definitive answers from the scientific the increased UV-8 effect on humans in CFC-22 has long been in major use in community. Because of the very long the form of skin cancer, but also UV-B home air conditioners and represents a atmospheric lifetimes of CFCs, any attack on many other biological systems. much lesser threat to stratospheric damage done to the atmosphere will Over a decade of research has ozone because the molecule is strongly persist throughout the entire 21st substantially improved our susceptible toward oxidation in the century and on into the 22nd. The costs understanding of all aspects of the lower atmosphere. Further, past of moving expeditiously away from ozone layer. All of the evidence researc h by several companies has these suspect chemicals is a very small produ ed to date continues to implicate already led to a number of patents on price compared to the large potential Fluorocarbon-134a, which has many of damages if we fail to act now. 0 the same industrial properties found in

The Ozone Hole Over Antarctica

n May 1985, scientists from the lone culprit, or do they act in I British Antarctic Survey combination with other chemicals published data which have sent or conditions? s hock waves throughout the As part of the search for scientific community. These data scientific clues, an urgent research showed that a 40 percent loss in effort was quickly put together, total ozone has occurred since the and four different U.S. scientific 1960s over Halley Bay, Antarctica , teams were sent to Antarctica in during September to 1986 to gather more extensive mid-Novemb r. These findings measurements of ozone and other were totally unpredicted and chemical compounds as the ozone unexpected. No s uch losses had hole reappeared during September. previously been reported, either This expedition w as very from ground-based ins truments in successful , and the scientists held operation since 1957 or from the a live press conference from the extensive satellite measurements McMurdo station in Antarctica in initiated in the 1970s. However, late October. They reported that both U.S. and Japanese scientists evidence produced to date was quickly began sorting through their inconsistent with proposed data sets and have confirmed that theories linking the ozone hole to this phenomenon in Antarcticn is solar activity or solely to indeed real. meteorological forces. While In sot ell ite photo. wT011· pc>ints to hoh' With the existence of the ozone stating that a chemical cause of the i11 th<' ozone Jm'er ole . hole now thoroughly established, ozone hole was likely, they Scientists ore ti·_1 ·i11g to detr>rn1ine if the research community has stopped short of pointing the chlorofluorocor!Jons (CFC:sJ or othr>r quickly come forth with a variety finger at CFCs. Since their return factors ore the rnuse of the Anturctic of possible explanations. Was the to the United States, more detailed "ozone hole." phenomenon part of a natural analyses of the data have been cycle linked to solar activ ity? Was possible and have begun to appear. it caused by meteorological In addition, precision studies of conditions s pecific to the region? the Antarctic phenomenon will Why did the existing atmospheric continue for several years or more, models fai l to simulate such seeking quantitative interpretations losses7 Are chl orine chemistry and of all of the data. chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) the

6 EPA JOU RNAL Skin Cancer: The Price for a Depleted Ozone Layer by Medwin M. M intzis, MD

kin cancer has reach ed epidemic fo r melanoma has soared by 1,000 travels from North to outh (that is. Sproportions in the United States. It is percent since the 1930s. Currently, one closer to th e Equ ator where the daily th e m ost common of all cancers, in 150 Americans is expected to h ours of su nlight are greatest). tu dies affecting o ne ou t of seven Americans. develop the disease. in Eu rope and Australia indicate similar O ne-th ird of all new cancers affect the Non-melanoma skin cancers- mainly patterns. T he n u m ber of cases of skin s kin; u pwards of a half million new basal cell and squamou s cell · cancer doubles w ith every eight degrees cases are treated each year. T h is is a 30 carcinomas-affect the skin's su rface latitu de nearer the Equator. percent increase in just 10 years. cells. Thou gh often considered Altitude is also a factor. At greater The chief cu lprit in causing this sharp " harm less" annoyances, such cancers h eights, more UV-B light penetrates the increase seem s to be the s un, rather are fa r from trivial in their advanced thinner atmosphere. The highest rates of than chemicals and X-rays, and forms . T hey can result in great s kin cancer incidence in the U n ited d epletion .of the s tratospheric ozone disfiguremen t-the loss of an eye. ear, States h ave been fo und in Albuqu erque. layer would dramaticall y exacerbate this lip, or n ose. And close to 2,000 New Mexico, w h ich has both a low disquieting tren d in th e years ahead. Am ericans w ill die this year because of latitude and a high altitude. The ozone layer screens out m uch of O ver 90 percent of all skin cancers the harmful ultraviolet Blight (UV-BJ occur on those parts of the bod / from the s un an d prevents it from In 1986, 23,000 Americans will n ormally unprotected by clothing- the reaching the earth's s urface. But w h en be diagnosed as having face, ears, n eck, and backs of the han d. the ozon e layer is depleted, even a one malignant melanoma, and Protrud ing lower lips, lower eyelids, p ercent increase in UV-B wou ld result 6,000 an d ear rims are particularly vulnerable in a two percent increase in the number another will die of its s ites. of skin cancers. Acco rding to a new effects. In temperate zones. people who spend EPA study, the n umber of cases of s kin a great deal of their ti me can cer in the next 88 years would total outd oors-fishermen, fa rmers, sai lors, 40 m illion, with as many as 800.000 non-melanoma cancers that spread- o r cons tructio n workers. athletes. for d eaths if the current trends in use of m etastasize- througho ut the body. exampl are the m ore likely .andidates ozon e-depleting ch emicals continues. This h u man devastation n eed not fo r skin can cer. Skin cancer types are usua lly occur. These cancers are largely O f course, the darker a person 's kin, categor ized in terms of melanoma and p reventable . No one should die of s kin the less li ke ly he or she is to get skin non-melanoma. The most dangerous cancer. The warning sign s a re ther fo r cancer. Blacks an d Hispanics are seldom fo rm of skin a ncer is malign ant us to see. When recognized early and affected; th eir high ly pigmen ted skin melanoma, which arises in the treated p romptly. s kin cancer is 100 (containing more melanin ) is a na tural pigment-forming cells (m elanocytes). percent cu rab le. sunb lock. Overall, fewer women than W hen a m elanoma reach es a certa in The con nection between skin canr:er m en develop basal and squam ous cell thickn ess. it spreads rapid ly to the vi tal an d excessive exposure to the sun's carcinomas. But among younger peop le, organs of the body. da maging rays has been c learly wo men develop the disease almost as In 1986, 23,000 Americans w ill be esta blish ed. In the case of frequen tly as men . d iagnosed as having maligna nt non-m elanoma ski n can cer, the link is T he sexes differ somewhat in terms uf melanoma, and anoth er 6,000 'Nill die of direct. With malignant melanoma, w here skm cancer occurs. Men its effects. A n individ ua l's lifetime ri sk exposure to ultravio let light is a frequen tly d evelop skin tumors on the causati ve facto r, altho ugh its p recise ti ps of the ears and on the scalp. areas role is not well understood al this ti me. unwittingly exposed to sunlight by the Other factors such as chemical balding p rocess. O n the other hand, carc inogens, oncologic viruses, and wom en get more can ers on the low er gen etics may a lso be involved. legs- exposed when they wear s kirts or (,\ifi ntzis is o nH'mber o( tJ 1e ivledico l T he incidence of n on -m elanoma skin dresses- th en men. (One may wonder Council oJ The Skin Cc;ncer Fou ndotion cancer am ong the w hite population in and r\ssis!ont Pro.fessor or /Jernwt0Jog_1· the United States increases as one ot NCI\' York l'ni\'l~rsity School or 1\ lecl ici ne.)

DECE MBER 1986 7 whether r. urrent styles of dress will affect the locations of skin cancers in the future.) Another interesting confirmation of the cancer-causing power of sunlight is that in the .S .. skin cancer is found more oft en on the left side of the face and arms of men drivers. but in Britain, it typically occurs on the right side of the fa ce. This corresponds to the opposite driving sides in fo rce in the two countries and the a mounts of s unlight coming through the open car The sun heoting do11·11 on his hurl-. . o windows. youngster podd/es on inner tube 011 Unlike bnsal and squamous cell Grrwn fl m' i11 Wisconsin. carcinoma, melanoma is thought to be re lated more to intermittent, but intense, bursts of su nlight, than to the total amount of sunlight received over a li fe time. Recent evidence suggests that getti ng one or more severe Ozone Depletion: Other Health Effects sunburns- particularly as a child or a teenager- may increase a person 's h e link between ultraviolet the exact mechanism by which potential chance of getting melanoma. Tradiation (UV-8) from the sun's UV-8 suppresses the im mune /\s w ith the other skin cancers, rays and certain skin cancers is system, furt her experiments malignunt mnlunoma occ urs most often well known. As concern has grown suggest that the implications may in fair-skinned individuals. Ca ucasia ns release of the science assessment extend well beyond skin cancer. arc affect •cl 10 times more oft en thun by NASA and the World Increases in UV-8 from ozone blacks. Interestingly. the inc id ence of Meteorological Organization on depletion m ay increase the melano ma o n blacks' non-pigmented stratospheric ozone was an frequency of herpes outbreaks. skin (the palms of the hands a nd the important event with regard to our Leishmaniasis, a disfiguring soles of the feel) is id entical to those own continuing evaluation process. disease caused by parasites \·vhich areas in whites. Laboratorv evidence and case is widespread in the tropics, may Stud ies of the influence of la titude on studies den{onstrate that exposure spread m ore rapidly and h eal more skin cancer in Caucas ians reveal, once to UV-8 can harm our immune slowly. O ther diseases may also be aga in. a n increased incidence of systems. This finding developed affected. melanoma c loser to the Equator. One almost inadvertently. Researchers Because the human eye is study found n connection between the trying to transplant a skin cancer sensitive to sunlight, we ri se of mnlariomn cnses in from one laboratory mouse to in voluntarily blink when we look Scandinavians und the number of cheap another found that the cancer al the sun. This instinct may be chart er fl ights to the south of Spain. would not grow following quite protective; laboratory and Other research has linked the rise in transplant. However, the scientists epidemiological studies show that w omen's hem! i nos to the developm ent found that if they irradiated the UV-B is a major cause of cataracts. of morn me lanomas on their legs. On second mouse before transplanting Cataracts are treatable when caught the other hand. melanomas a ppear more the tumor, it w ould take hold and early, but even in the United frequently o n the chests and backs of spread. This s urprising discovery States they remain the third suggested that UV-8 radiation was leading cause of blindness. In interfering wi th the mouse's developing countries, they are an immune syste m. even greate r cause of blindness. A lthough we do not understand

8 .EPA JOU RNAL men than they do in women. The Au stralia, where a national edu cation usually have a single shade of brown. protection against ultraviolet rays campaign against skin cancer was Diameter. Common moles are usually provided by different kinds of clothing implemented, the debilitating and less than 6 mm. in diameter (Y4 " ), the seems to be a factor. sometimes lethal effects of skin cancer size of a pencil eraser. Early melanomas However, most skin cancers can be have been greatly reduced because of tend to be larger than 6 mm. prevented if people choose to use a few widespread public awareness of \Nhat simple precautions that will minimize warning signs to look for. In addition, melanomas can appear the sun's impact on their skin. flat on the skin as well as raised. Thev In the past, avoid ing overexposure to may also bleed easily. - sunlight involved using cosmeticall y Itching, pain. or other discomfort is unacceptable opaque barriers or, even The connection between skin rare with skin tumors. which in part worse, resigning oneself to an indoor cancer and excessive exposure explains w hy so many people ignore lifu sty! unacceptable for most people. to the sun's damaging rays has them or delay seeking help. Today's sunscreen products, developed been clearly established. When detected earh'. non-melanoma within the last 10 years, are both skin cancers are succe sfullv treated effective and cosmetically pleasing. The with one of several surgical° technique . typical number 15 sunscreen allows for and less oft en with freezing of tissue or The most common warning sign of an exposure up to 15 times a person 's with rad iation therapy. More ordinary tolerance to skin reddening. early basal cell carcinoma is a complicated cases are best treated with non-healing sore that remains open for In addition to regular sunscreen use, a microscopically controlled surgery several weeks or more. It also frequentl y very effecti ve measure is limiting one's (MOHS surgery), a tech nique in which resembles a pearly bump, which may time outdoors during the hours of the each layer of tissue in the removal eventually develop an ulcer in the sun's peak inten si ty (10 a.m. to 2 p.m. proce s is mi ro copically che keel for middle. At first it may look like a Standard Time or 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. malignancy. pimple, but unlike a pimple. it does n ot during Daylight Saving Time.) Hats, Malignant m elanoma is usually go away. Sometimes, it appears as a umbrellas. long pa nts and sleeves, and treated by aggressive and extensive locnl reddish patch or even a scar-like area. ti ghtly woven fabrics are all helpful. s urgery. If. however, it has spread Squ amous cell carcinoma, which has These and other s imple steps beyond the skin , hemotherapy and1or somewhat similar warning signs, will allow people to protect immunotherapy may be used. although usually appears red and scRly from the themselves from skin cancer with lim ited success. Newer start. In time it too may ukerate in the while e njoying their time outdoors. experimental immunotherapies such as center. Protection from the sun should be interleukin-2 and interferon hu\·e shown Maligna nt melanoma may start in a practiced from the earli est stages of som e promise in initia l trials in patients pre-existing mole or birthmark. or it one's life. All those responsible for the with advanced melanoma. Their may develop as a nev.1 blemish. well-being of children and young long- term effectiveness has yet to be Melanomas have four distinct people- parents, relatives, teachers, shown. characteristics in contrast to common babysitters, camp directors, scout But with skin cancers. as with most [benign) moles: leaders, Little League coaches- have a diseases. the best treatment is critical role to play in minimizing Asymmetry. Some forms of early prevention. And that means avoiding harmful exposure to the sun's strongest mali gnant m elanoma nre asym metrical. the harmful effects of sun light. lJ rays. meaning that a line d rawn through the But for adults w ith years of chronic. middle w il l not create matching halves. heavy sun exposure, preventing steps Common moles are round and may come too late. For t his reason, the symmetrical. second major thrust in the war against Border. The borders are frequen tl y skin cancer is earl y detection. In uneven. often conta ining scalloped or notched edges. Common moles have smooth , even borders. Color. Differe nt shades of brown or black are often the first s ign of a malignant melanoma. Common moles

DECEMBER 1986 9 Ozone Protection: The Need for a Global Solution by Richard Barnett Some produds found in (J ~roi·e1T store. like thesr• f'oom egg< orlons und cups. often urP produnnl usill!.i chlorof/uorornrbons. CH.s (JI'(' Cll~o 11.~t>d in rc_frigerotors. oir co11ditio1H•rs. o u tom obi /es. crnd clen 11 i ng snh·t>11ts.

he potential for ozone depletion and T climate change are real environmental concerns. There is ample time to develop effect ive solutions to address these concerns, but th ey will require a globa l focus nnd the cooperati ve efforts of industry and government. Although many substances are thought to co ntribute to ozone depletion and climatt: change, att ention has focused primarily on a family of synthetic chemicals known as chl oroflu orocarbons. or CFCs. ;\ balanced approach to these substances is necessary in order to preserve their va luable uses while limiting any long- term potential for environmental damage. CFCs were first developed in 1931 as a result of an intensive research effort to identify an eff ic ient , safe refrigenrnl for home use. They have com , to be used in a wide variety of additional appli cations. the most notable of which are a ir-conditioning, the manufacture of foam products, and as a cleaning It is incumbent on us, nevertheless. lo environmental issue, and then to ensure solvent for the electronics industry. The examine these s tbsta nces and their that any government policy be based on use of CFCs has become widespreau potential for harming the environment the best and most current sci entifi c because of th eir many desirable in the long-term future. However, vve information. properties. They are non-flamm able, should not rush into short-term Second, it was our goal to enco urage non-carcinogenic, non-corrosiv e, have regulatory decisions that could res ult in efforts lo resolve this issue in the low toxicity. and are extremely energy the use of alternatives that present international arena becnuse of its global effi cient. immediate threats to worker and scope and to prevent any unproductil'e, The contribution of these substances consumer safety and offer little or no harmful , unwarranted uni latera l lo worker safely and co nsumer health th eoreti cal environment al benefit. In domestic regulatory program that 1\'0u ld is substant ia l. 'f'he unnual va lue of this case, it appears that the penalties of injure U.S . industry to the benefit of our goocJ s and services which depencJ to a premature regulation could be real in international competition. varying ex tent upon CFCs exceeds $28 terms of an immediate increase in Third, it was our goa l to seek billion, and morn than 7130,000 ful l-Lime exposure to more toxic substances or amend ments to the Cleon 1\ ir i\ct th<1t jobs are related lo CFC uses in the increased energy co nsumption. wou Id pro vi de greater i nlern al iona l Unitlnl Status. The 1\Jliance for Responsible CFC emphasis on this issue. and gi ve better Policy was organized six yea rs ago to gui dance to the EPA Administrator f /3U1'11f'lt Si'f'l'f'S CJ!, t/ie C/wi111)(111 of represent the interests of users and regard ing stratospheri c ozone protecti on tlw r\l/i(l1H·c for Hr•spo11sil1lf' CH: i'olir 1· producers of CFCs. Alliance members activities and the need for regu lat ion. orid is llir• \'it t~ Pn•sic/,•111 011tl Ct•1wrnl 1\lcJ1rngt•r o/ tlll• C:t•nlrol E111 irn11nH·11lul established some bas ic goals with rega rd In the six years that have go ne by, we S1 str•rns /)i1 1sio11 ol Yori-. f11li'/'Jl(lfH111ol, to the ozone depletion theory, CFC fee l that much has been accomplished u lorgt• oir c·o1Hlilirnwr 111C1111!fw l1m•1 usage, and potential government to obtain our goals. but we bel ieve that lwst'd in )'ork. l'A 'J'h1• 1\ lliunc:I' policies. much remains to be done. rqm•s1·11ts tiw inlerPsts o/ USi'l'S 011d First, it was our desire lo encourage The United States an d rn arw other prnduc·t'rs of' CFCs.) the pursuit of adequate credibl e countries developed sci e nt ifi~ programs scientific research on this important to understand the ozone layer and the

10 EPA JOURNAL processes that control it. Practi cally all we know about the stratosphere has The Saga of Spray Cans been learned in the last 10-15 years. Furthermore. intensive programs to ost people probably associate study climate and possible modifications M ozone depletion with aerosol are continuing. spray cans. They remember back to Al though the scientific scrutiny has the mid-1970s when public provided considerable information, concern peaked that the chemicals some of it conflicting, it has also given off by hair sprays, underarm highli ghted the many continuing deodorants, and shaving creams scientific uncertainties. We believe the '"'ould d eplete the earth's scientific research must continue. protective ozone shield, leading to Additionally, the Alliance has been increases in skin cancers. Front an active participant in efforts to page stories, editorials, and promote greater international political cartoons decrying the use cooperation, as exemplified by our of aerosols were widespread. Even support for the Vienna Convention for Archie Bunker's son-in-law. aerosols accounted for over half of Protection of the Ozone Layer, and our Mich ael, in an episode of All In The total consumption; by 1978, this participation in such domestic and Family, berated his wife Gloria use constituted less than fi \ e international efforts to address ozone about her continued use of this percent. Moreover, consumers still protection issues as the recently threat to our well-being. had access to quality aerosol concluded series of workshops A decade later. consumers in the products which, in fact. were less sponsored by EPA and the United United States can go into stores expensive to m anufacture than Nations Environment Programme and purchase the same personal their CFC-propell ed counterparts. (UNEP). Given the enormous products without concern for their By taking action to reduce CFC complexities of the issue, effects on ozone depletion. use in aerosols, the United States progress-from the scientific and In fact, it was not the aerosols and several other nations ·which international poli cy development themselves, but their use of followed suit effectively bought a perspectives-has been remarkable. chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs] as the low-cost insurance policy. In 1980, the Alliance urged that at propellant w hich raised concern. providing time during which least three to five years were necessary Most aerosols contain a statement scientific efforts could focus on to allow scientific research to gather that they "contain no resolving some of the remaining critical monitoring information fluorocarbons." Manufacturers uncertainties. But, although this regarding the projections being made by have reformulated their products action granted some needed computer models. Therefore, the 1986 to use a h ydrocarbon propellant breathing room by reducing the release of the ASAMIMO science system which is safe to the ozone rate of growth of CFCs in the assessment on stratospheri c ozone was layer. atmosphere for al most a decade, an important event with regard to our Jn response to scientific that reprie e is over; CFC use has own continuing evaluation process. evidence and public concern, EPA rebounded to match the peak Jn general. the Alliance does not moved to ban CFCs in nonessential amounts of 10 years ago. This fact. believe that the scientific information aerosols in 1978. But, even before coupled with the recent disco\'erv demonstrates any actual ri sk from then, the public and manufacturers of the ozone "hole" over - current CFC use or em issions. We had shifted rapidly away from Antarctica, has renewed the recogn ize, however, the growing these perceived dangerous scientific and the publi attenti on concern for potential ozone depletion products. In 1974, CFCs in to this issue. and climate change in the fu ture as a resu lt of large continuing growth of CFC emissions and the buildup of many fu lly halogenated CFCs (the most This policy is significant because it other trace gases in the atmosphere, and durable ones, thought to contribute most eliminates the "worst case" scenarios the concern generated by the discovery to ozone depletion) would b being discu ssed: fosters a continued of unexplained phenomena such as the unacceptable to future generations. In international cooperative spirit: large reductions in ozone levels during our view, it would be inconsistent with recognizes the value of CFCs to present the Antarctic spring. the goals of the CFC Alliance to ignore day health, safety. and economic Scientific progress is not sufficientl y the potential for risk to those future concerns of workers and consumers; developed to tell us that there is no risk generations. and will provide ome st imulus fo r the in the future. In fact, all of the computer In furtherance of this positi on, the development of CFC alternatives. models calculate that large future Alliance recently issued a policy The using and producing industries of growth in CFC emissions may statement which included support for a the CFC Alliance are committed lo contribute to signifi cant ozone depletion negotiated global limit on the future rate being active participants in the in the latter half of the next century. of growth of fu lly halogenated CFC exploration and the successful Therefore, we support further production capacity; the development of resolution of these serious environmental issues; in the promotion scientific research an d bel ieve that voluntary programs by industries to regulatory pol icies should be conserve CFCs and reduce CFC of greater global cooperation in periodicall y reexamined in the light of emissions; and the continuation of conducting the necessary scientific additional research findings. research to develop acceptable research and monitoring: and in On the basis of current information, substitutes for the fully halogenated developing coordinated, effe tive and equitable global policy decision ·. we believe that large future increases in CFCs. 0

11 DECEMBER 1986 M ontt: Paulson. 011/las M orning Nr•ws

he greenhouse effect has caught the Do we really itself a greenhouse gas. this w il l '"'arm T. 1mag1n ati o11 of tlrn gt! nern l populoce understand the "greenhouse" the planet further. In ad dition. as more 111 the last clecmlc. a 11 d the respected, effect? snO\o\1 and ice melt in the warming go ncrnll y conserva ti ve scient ifi c The greenhouse effect is th e name fo r climate Jess energy from the sun will be es.t ahlishmcn1 has lrncomc associated the phys ical process where energ\· from refl ected back to space [s now and ice w ith re latively dim predicti ons of future the sun passes th rough the atmos-phere are very good refl ectors) which cl1malc change. I low much is ac:tua ll v relati ve ly freely, while heat ro di ating promotes further warming. These are known about the greenhouse effect? c":n n from the earth is absorbed by particular examples of '·positive feedbacks." and w e really establish how cl im otc will gases in the atmosphere. 1\lthough a fe\\' both of these system responses are very ch.a nge, and when'? By separating "hard" unce rtainties remain , we ca n genera]!\· likely to occur, although we cannot be sc1enc thnt which can be verifi ed and calculate very accuratelv the r a di at i o~ sure of the magnitude of the changes. is consid ered well understood- from absorption by di ffe rent gases. Wh en the The models also predict that clo ud scientifi c theory or estimate we ca 11 concentration of a gas changes, \"-'e cover will change in such a way as to investi ga te how likely n nea r-t erm know how much more energy is being cause even more 1N arming. Clouds are alteration in climate roall v is. We absorbed. This addi tio nal absorption by not yet well understood . and the explore this subject lhro u-g h rnsponsl!s itself warms th e planet; for exa mple, predicted cha nges are very u11certa in . lo a series of questions. doubling the concentration of carbon But the net result of these different dioxide in the atm os phere woul d processes in the modr. ls is to nmpli fy eventuall y lead to an increase of the the direct doubled C02 warming bv 1. 2°C. n~ ore thon a fa ctor of three, producing a (/Jr. Hind is 011 olmosphl•nc S<"i1'11l1sl ul global air temperature bv 1\·ithout any other changes in the climate system. 4 C temperature rise. Yet it is only the !ht> l11.stit11t1• lnr Spon Sluclif's, (;(Jdclorcl initial greenhouse effect due lo Spcict• Flight C:t>n!Pr. \'otrn110/ What we do not kno w, however, is how increased C0 2 , or increases in other :\1•ro1 w11tws crnd Spm l' 1\drni11istrntw11 the rest of the system will react. Cu rrent trace gases, which we kn ow ·with great 111· is o /1·odi11g n·s1 ·orc:h1·1 011 c1sJH'< h model' predict that the warming due to oi confidence. th1• gr~•1•11Jio1JSI' t/ir•or_\' of ulmospJ11•m· increased carbon diox id e will also l\C1rm1ng Jrom nHmmodc guses.J increase the eva poration of water va por from the ocean; beca use wut er v<1 por is

12 EPA JOUR NAL On o hot sumnwr dm'. \'Oungs!Prs cool that other greenhouse gases, such as similar climate feedback factors. but as ofl in tlH' fountoin iri Jr:onl or DuJ/c1s methane and nitrous oxide. also are the different models handle many Cit\· I loll. l)(IJlos currrnt/.\· experiences increasing, although we are not sure processes similarly, the unanimity does obout HI dcr~·s jJl'r \'POI' of temperutmes how long this has been happening. As not guarantee accuracy. The treatment Ol'er l 00 F. OnP (•stinwte indicolps we are not sure of the reason for their of clou d cover in all the models tho t. if current 1rn mii ng t l'f'n els increase, we have less confidence in represents a m ajor uncertainty. The c:onti1llW, tlwt numlwr 11·i /l ri~P to 7H their long-term trend. In addition, m odels also show differences in the cfo~·s b_1• tlw J'l'Czr 2020. greenhou se gases of which we are only seasonal and latitudinal distributions of now becoming aware may be increasing. the calculated warming. lt is unlikely such as some of the more exotic that the models could be wrong by more Can we use the man-made chlorine-fl uorine than a factor of two, but this cannot be temperatures on other planets to determine what compounds. proven. In addition, a limate change forecast the feedbacks of the system Is the temperature should indicate when the warming will be? record of the past century wou ld be expected to be e \'ident. Onl:-· The a tmospheres of other nearby planets consistent with this gree nhouse gas increase? one model (the Goddard Institu te for validate the general concept of the Space Studies [GISS[ model) ha been gree nho use theory, especially in a Estima tes are that the global average u sed in a time-transgressi\'e mode to qualitative sense, but they can not tell us s urface air temperature h as increased by calculate the climat for the next 50 what the magnitude of the cha nges on abo ut 0.6°C in the past 100 years; years. T he results indicate substantial earth will be. Venus, w ith a massive available records are uneven. warming in th e next decade. This atmosphe re com posed essentially of Temperature recording sta tio ns were calcu lation is affected to some e 't nt bv carbon dioxide, has a s urface a ir much less abundant 100 years ago. and uncertainties in ocean heat uptake and_ temperature a lmost 500°C w;:irmer than large portions of the glo be were poorly the true climate feedba k fa ctor. Bv would be exp ected withou t a sampled. especially in the Sou thern providing an estimate of how mucl1 greenhouse effect. Mars. vvith a very He mis phere. Even today, fu ll global warming should be observed in the thin a tmosphere a nd th us little cove rage is not available. The record, relativelv near fu ture , we will ha\'e a greenhouse capacity. has nn o bserved su ch as it is, does n ot indicate a chan ce t~ test the accur< c y of the ·e te mperature c lose to the expected; a n d ubiq u ito u s warming sin ce that time, m odels. Earth, with interm ediate a m o unts of since the Northern Hem isphere has greenhouse gases, is about 30°C warmer a pparen tly cooled from the 1940s in to How " dire" is the than it would be o therwise. T he the early 1970s. Th is cooling i forecast o f coming clima te change? differen ces a mong the pla nets a re very incons istent with the concept of large, and cannot really be used to greenhouse w arming, but it may be d ue Ice covered \\ hat is now Ne w York Cit\' estim;:i te sen s itivity to sm a ll c hanges in to other climate perturbations (such as d uring an ice age climdte estimated to - greenhouse capacity. Furthermo re. as varia tio n s in the solar constant or be som e 4°C colder than today's. noted a bove, the big uncertainty li es in volcanic aerosols) or sim p ly represent Considering that the doubled CO ~ the magnitude of the syste m respon se. internal vari a bility w ithin the sy tern climate is estimated to be warmer by the or its " feedbacks"- the most importa nt The overall warm ing for the past same amount. large changes in the feedbacks a ll involve the reaction of century is the right order of rn;:ignitude climate svstem mav well be expected if processes having to d o wi th water, a n d of the expected greenho use effect: this comes to pass." The forecast for the the othe r plan ets have no freestanding h owever. due to u ncertainties in the next 50 \'ears from the CISS modnl gives water. actual temperatu re ch ange, in th e c han ges -of zcc by the year 2020, \\'hich c lima te feedback factor. in th actual w ould make the earth \\'armer than it is Are greenhouse CO, amoun t in ·1880 , an d in th rate of thought to have been at any point in gases increasing? ocean heat uptake [whic h slow s down h istoriccil time. Estimates for summer An a tmosphe ric m o n ito ring system the atmosphe ric warming), we cannot be temperatures in the doubled co ~ esta blis h ed in 1958 has measu red mo re precise in dete rmining what the climate ind icate that Washington. l)C, sys te m atically inc reasing concentrations expected warming sho uld have been. which c urrent ly experie11ces ::Hi clays of of carbon dioxide ove r the last 28 :-·ears. Simila rly, due lo the othe r u ncertai nties. tem perature above 90°F. w o u ld We also beli eve that concentra ti o n s w e cannot use the record to establish rou tinely have 87 s uch clays : l)nllas have increased s ince the turn of the wha t the cl imate feedback facto r really w ould go from In clays w ith century , a ltho ugh w e are less certa in is. tem perc1 tures a bO\'e t00°F to 7!.l da~ · s. about the magnitude of that c ha nge. Sea level rise d ue to the rmal 1~x p a11sio n Are current Chlorofl uorocarbon s are artificia ll y of the oceans would cn u s£~ sevt:re models adequate to allow us gen erated gases w ith greenh o use problems in m an y coast;il cit ies, and to forecast climate change? cap acity which a re known to be this effect w o uld be nxac:crlmted if increasing: they h ave no n a tural Numerical mod els. called general ad ditional glacial melting occ u rred. sources, a n d probably d id not exist in circ ulation mod e ls, calcula te the Rainfall patterns wou ld likely be the a tmosphe re p rior to the last few res po n se of the climate system to the s ubstantially altered, posing the threat decades. Recent m easure m e nts indicate increases in trace gases. The three of large scale d isru ptions of agricu ltural current mod els all estima te that the

doubled C0 2 climate w ill have a globa l average te m perature 4°C warmer than today. They are thu s a ll calcu lating

DECEMBER 1986 13 ------and economic productivity. The impact of the climate changes predicted by the current models would be immense, and, Hotter or Colder? if the timing is correct, they will come ccasionally, predictions have there is little evidence that they quickly. Obeen made that the increasing are probable, especially in the near Is there any way to C02 in the atmosphere will lead to future. prevent these changes from another ice age, or that another ice On longer time scales, the occurring? age is coming in any case. Dr. Rind likelihood of another ice age is responds: based on the current The climate is being a ltered by the Most suggestions about understanding that ice ages result release of trace gases due lo fossil fuel increasing C0 leading to an ice from variations in the earth 's orbit consumption and industria l processes. 2 age involve the effect of climate around the sun. At certain periods These are factors inherent to our current change on the ocean. Perhaps the the earth receives less solar civilization. It is hard to visua lize presence of warmer ocean water at radiation d uring Northern changes sufficient to influence the high latitudes will provide for Hem isphere su mmer, which would overall trace gas trend. short of a major more precipitation, more aid in allowing snow cover to catastrophe. although it m ay be possible snow cover, and the growth of persist. The direct solar variation to limit specific trace gas increases glaciers . Or perhaps the "color" of forcing is too sm a ll by itself to (such as the chlorofluorocarbons). Our the ocean will change as ocean produce an ice age; the climate ability to manipulate the c limate system warming causes changes in algae system would have to enhance the deliberate ly, so as to offset the warming concentration. which might initial effect in order to produce an by some other process, is nonexistent. It increase ocean reflectivity and cool ice age. For example, analysis of is likely that the additiona l greenhouse the plane t. Or maybe the entire gas bubbles trapped in ice cores capacity which has been added during ocean circulation will change, with ind icates that during ice ages the past 50 years has a lready built reductions in the Torth Atlantic carbon dioxide in the atmosphere consideruble warming into the system, production of "deep water," which is lowered by about 25 percent which has not yet been realized due to is cold salty water that sinks to the (about 70 ppm), wh ich would cool the s low response of the ocean. bottom. This could force the water the planet. Currently. the orbital The climate of the next century w ill that stays on the surface to remain variations are such that the solar very likely be substantiall y different cold . radiation received in the Northern from today's, and uncertainties in our What all these suggestions have Hemisphere during summer is knowledge of the true climate in common is that they are highly decreasing, although it w ill be sens itivity prevent us from knowing speculative. The growth of glaciers several thousand years before it exactly how different it will be. The in a warm er climate, for example, reaches the minimum values consequen ces of the estimated climate is unlikely because glacial buildup which occurred during the last ice ch a nge would be enormous. With that occurs only when temperatures age. In this sense we are "going in mind, it is worthwhile for us to factor rem ain below freezing. In most into" an orbital confi guration that climatic cha nges into o ur regions of tbe Northern Hemisphere is more favorable for ice ages. d ecision-m aking process, while this does not happen today; and it But the c limate change that is appreciating the uncertainties that st ill would be less possible in a warmer our present concern is anticipated exist in our understand ing. 0 climate. If some feedback process to be evident in the next decade, initiated by the warming, such as a and to reach major proportions Carbon Dioxide Concentrations change in cloud cover or ocean during the next one hundred years. reflectivity, acted to co l tbe Ice ages are lengthy phenomena, climate, its importance vvou ld occurring over thousands of years, probably diminish as the warming and it is unlikely that major effects > diminish ed (for example, cloud would appear on the short time E 340 cover would return to its current scales of interest here. a. ..9: level), and so end the cooling. Furthermore, with a vvarmer c Finally. while there is some climate i.t is uncerta in w hether ice 2 evidence that climate has cooled ages could occur: a reducti on of 70 ~ c 370 rapidly in the past during warming ppm of C02 today would simply Q) (.) c episodes, perhaps because of bring the C02 level back to what it 0 u changes in ocean circulation. the was normally in the past, well N event(s) seem ed to have occurred above the ice age values. If 310 8 w hen much more extensive land minimal C02 amounts are 1955 1960 1965 1970 197b 1980 1985 ice a lready existed, providing cold necessary for the orbital fresh meltwater runoff fo r the configuration to generate an ice Muos u1w 11f•nts of otmosplicric /1•\'ds ol ocean . Future ocean c irculation age, such an occurrence may well co•• s holl' (1 S ll'CJdy Sl'USO!lU I Uf!\\'UJ'd changes cannot be ruled out, but be less like ly in the future. lr<'nd Ol'l' r the post :w .1Tc11·s. C:hml sliO\\'S /1 •1·p/s lll l'c1.-; urf'd in purls ppr miJJ io11 in l'C>lunw.

14 EPA JOU RNAL Mauna Loa Observatory, NOAA

"A Dire Forecast for Greenhouse "The greenhouse effect" ... this term The Slcruno Loo Obsen uton· rn•ur f fi/o. Earth'' is part of the public vocabulary Jlml'(Jii. is pmt of tlw C<'opi1n;irnl The \t\/C1shi nglon Post now. In just a fe w years, it has changed ,\/onitoring for Clinwti<' C/wnge from a scientific curiosity to a major progrom run b1· tlw :\otionol Oceunic policy issue for industries and oncl 1\fmosplinic . \dm inistrntion Tlw "Swifter Warming of Globe governments a ll over the world. Obs<'l'l'(1tory·s rnrhon dioxide• monitoring- rC'conls clC1t<• IJC11'i-. to lD.iH. Foreseen" Why? How did a question of The New York Times seemingly academic interest suddenl y become the subject not onl of 1979, when fo ur eminent scientists headlines and talk shows, but of reported to the Council on government hearings and international Environmental Quality [CEQ) that "The Silent Summer, Ozone negotiations? " ... man is setting in motion a series of Loss, and Global Warming: Simply p ut, the greenhouse effect is events that seem ertain to cause a A Looming Crisis" the process in which heat radiating fro m significant warming of \No rld climates 'ewsweek the earth's surface is trapped by gases, unless mitigating steps are ta ken such as carbon dioxide and methane, in immediately." The authors were the atmosphere. The increased heat ecologist George Woodwell. one of the results in a rise in global temperatures first to examine the rol e of deforestation which may significantly a lter climate in the buildup of carbon dioxide; patterns. Scientists have known and geophysicist Gordon MacDonald, one of studied this effect for decades, but only CEQ's original members; David Keeling recently have they reached the of the Scripps Institute of fundamental consensus that rising levels Oceanography, who coordinated of greenhouse gases may threaten the continuous measurements of carbon future of our planet. Now the dioxide in the atmosphere; and (Pomernnce is Senior Associote ro r implicati ons of that possibility are oceanographer Roger Revelle, who Polic)' Affairs ot the World Hesoun:es reaching governments. established the carbon dioxide Institute.) The greenhouse eff ect reached a new monitoring station at tvfau na Loa in stage in its evolution as a policy issue in Hawaii in 1957 and vvho chai red the

DECE MB ER 1986 15 1977 National Research Council report, was not the only problem gas; methane, scientists from 29 nations met in "Energy and Climate." tro pospheric ozone, nitrous oxides, and Villach, Austria, and agreed that "some At about the same time, the ational chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could also warming of climate now appears Academy of Sciences also began a study contribute significantly to warming the inevitable; the rate of future warming of the greenhouse effect. 1\fter reviewing atmosphere. could be profoundly affected by available atmospheric models and The Environmental Protection J\ gency government policies on energy analyses of past climates, the stu dy made its first contribution to the debate conservation, on use of fossil fue ls, and chaired by meteorologist jule Charney in 1983, when it re leased its report "Can emission of some greenhouse gases." concluded that "We have tried but have We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?" Following on the heels of the Villacb been unable to find any overlooked or EPA's report concluded that levels of conference was a Senate hearing underestimated physical effects th at atmospheric greenhouse gases were convened by Senator David could reduce the estimated global al ready high enough to trigger a global Durenberger, as well as a call by Senator warming due to a doubling of C02 warming, and that economic momentum Albert Gore for an international "Year of (carbon dioxide) lo negligible would ensure even further warming. the Greenhouse" to focus attention on proportions or reverse them altogether." the problem. Gore was not new to the The study estimated that a doubling of issue, having conducted hearings on the C02 in the atmosphere would raise Based on his climate models, greenhouse effect in 1982 and 1984 global temperature by 3°C, plus or Hansen projected that while he was a member of the U.S. minus 1 1/2°C. significant warming might be House of Representatives. The pace The greenhouse problem was debated 15 quickened in 1986, when the World in yet another fo rum that year when the observed within five to Meteorological Organization, the .a rt er ad minist ration proposed a major years . National Aeronautics and Space synthetic fu els initiative. In The Administration, and numerous other Washington Post, Gordon MacDonald agencies issued a three-volume report argued that synthetic fuels produced The report further concluded that global on atmospheric ozone. The report even more carbon dioxide per unit of temperatures would rise by 2°C within a detailed the rapid atmospheric changes energy than coal, oil, or natural gas. relatively short time, even with ma jor occurring as a result of human activity, MacDonald warned that subsidizing reductions of C02 emi ssions, although particularly the greenhouse effect and synthetic fu els was a mi stake that such reductions could have an impact the depletion of the protective ozone would only increase U.S . dependence in the long run. layer in the stratosphere. Co ncluded the EPA 's report wns followed shortly by on C02 intensive energy systems. report, " There is now compelling The controversy attracted the interest Changing Climate, the greenhouse study evidence that the atmosphere is of then IJ. S. Senator Abraham Ribi coff, of the National Academy of Sciences. ln changing on a global scale." Finall y, who had recently been warned of the contrast to EPA 's conclusions about Senator John Chafee's hearings in June greenhouse effect by West German fossil fuel use and C02 buildup, the of 1986 brought together key scientists Chancellor I Ielmut Schmidt. Ribi coff Academy judged th at "We do not and government officials to discuss the c011vened a Senate symposium on the believe that the evidence at hand about problem. Perhaps the most significant subject. The res ult was an amendment C02 -induced climate change would testimony came fr om Dr. James Ha nsen to the synthc;ti c fuels leg islation of 1980 support steps to change correct fuel use of the Goddard institute for Spac1t mandating that th e ational Acauemy of patterns away from fossil fuels." Studies. Based on his climate models, Sciences undertake another, Perhaps the Academ report ca lm ed Hansen projected that significant comprehcnsivt! , review of the problem. public fears. At an ra te, the issue faded warming might be observed within fiv e from th e public eye until 1!:l85. when Also in 19110, the Na ti onal Commission to 15 years. on Air Quality held a wo rkshop on the new scientific information, a key This was a surprise to many greenhouse effect as part of its review of international conference, and a series of observers. The greenhouse problem had th e Clean Ai r Act. That workshop may Congressional hearings co mbined to been viewed as taking decades to have been the first study to concentrute return the greenhouse effect to public develop, and, indeed, doubled levels of solely on public poli cy issues rather awareness. carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were than science aspects of the problem. Early in 1985, scientists V. still projected to occur decades from Jn January 1981 , under the leadership Ramanathan and J{alph Cicerone and now. It was the possibility that warming their colleagues from the ational of Gus Speth, the Council on could occur at much lower levels of C02 Center for Atmospheric Research Environmental Quality released its that suddenl .1 became a serious issue for report on the C0 problem. 1\fter announced that not only vvere other government poli cymakers to address. 2 greenhouse gases contributing as much anal yzing the reductions in C02 The Chafee hearings raised the emissions that would be needed to keep to globa l warming in the 1980s as co~. visibility of the greenhouse issue, levels below 1 1/2 times preincluslrial but also that these gases could making it a more likely factor in policy levels, CEQ concluded that "the e\lentually surpass carbon dioxide in discussions. Senator Chafee moved the potent ial risks from even moclerat their contribution to the greenhouse issue another step by ask ing EPA to increases in the burning of fossil effect. These findings reinforced th e develop a set of policy options for fu els ... u11 derscores the vital need to growing consensus that some globa l stabilizing the level of greenhouse gases warming was inevitable and that it incorporate the C02 issue into th e in the atmosphere. When completed, development of Uni ted States and global would occur rapidly. this study shoul d mark the beginning of energy policy." Adding a major An internati onal meeting in October another era fo r the greenhouse effect di111 ensio11 to the problem, ~cie nti s t s at 1985 came to the sa me conclusion. and the problem of global warming. 0 the Goddard .Institute of Space Studies Under the auspices of the United concluded lster that same yea r th at C0 Na tions Environment Programme and 2 the World Me teorological Organ iza tion,

16 EPA JOURNAL Rising Sea Levels: The Impact They Pose by James G. Titus

or the last several thousand years, Fthe level of the oceans has risen so slowl that for most practical purposes it has been constant. This slow rate of rise has made it possible for ecosystems and human activities in coastal areas to develop more extensiveh• than would otherwise be possible. \\.hether one is looking at an Ocean Citv or Rio de Janeiro beach resort, sw-amps in Louisiana. farmland in 13 angladesh. m arshes along the Chesapeake Bav. or the merchants of Venice, life along the coast is in as nsitive balance with the level of the seas. This balance may be upset by the global warming that is expected to result from the "greenhouse effect" projected by atmospheri c scientists. Climatologists generally expect that if h u man activities continue to release carbon d ioxide. chlorofluorocarbons. and other gases that absorb infrn red radiation, average temperatures on our planet w ill rise four to nine degrees (F) in the next century. Thi global warming could raise sea le1'el one root in the next 40 years, and two to six fe el in the next century. The rising seas could inu ndate low-lying areas. erode beaches hundreds of feet or more. in crease the risk of flood ing i11 coastal areas, destroy coastal marshes and swamps, and increase the sal initv of rivers, bays, aquifers, and water suppl:< systems. By "sea lev l" we mean the avnragc water level of the oceans, coastal estuaries. tidal ri\'ers. a11cl bm·s th roughou t the course of a yem. In the last two million voars. sea level has been three to five hunc.lr 'd feet lower Steve Delaney 1 Iigh-rise condominiums line th e IJf'oc/1 during ice ages than it is today. During in ()c;pon C:it1· ..\JD . [fo(lch erosion due warm ''interglacial" peri ods, sea leve l to rising seo ·1e1·ds could thrcote11 mcrn_1 · has been at approximately toduy's level. resorts 11"ith buildings c/osf' lo shorf'. Jn Bu t during the last interglacial period Oceo11 C:il\'. olfo.i(l/s hr11 < oln ucil tri(•c/ one h undred thousand \'ears ugo . the level was about 20 feet higher than it is (Titus is Jlrojec t .\Iunugn for Seu f ,f'I <·l rebuilding eroding llf uchr·s /iv IJringing Hise in the 01/ic<' of PoliC'I· 1\11ull'sis i11 o/Jshorc sund onto slim<'. currently. EP1\ 's O.fJicr• ·rl.f Poil c~" Pl rrn 11 irig~ und The main reason sea level has E1·n luot ion ) fl uctuated so much is that during ice

DECEMBER 1986 17 Formers trnnsplont shoots in o Hung/odt>sh ricf' Jif~ld . . \cc on/in~ to 0111' estimute. o six loot rist' in sr•o lt·i·t•I irnuld flood uli°oul :w pP!'C'Pnt ot Bcrnglu-desh

sea level will be inundated. A six-foot rise in sea level would fl ood about 20 percent of Bangladesh, and a similar portion of the Ni le Delta in which almost all of Egypt's population resides. Some island nations built on coral reefs such as the Maldives in the Indian Ocean could be entirely under water. Were it not for the extensive network of dikes and drainage canals. one-half of the etherlands would also be threatened. In the United States, most areas just above sea level are coastal marshes and swamps, which are extremely important for the survival of many types of birds, fish, and forbearing animals. Because wetlands have been able lo keep pace with the slow rates of sea level rise that characterized the last few thousand years, the area of wetlands is generally greater than the area just above sea level. If the sea should rise more rapidly in the future, a very large loss of those wetlands could result, even though new wetlands would form as inland areas are inundated. 1f the adjacent upland areas are developed , all the wetlands cou ld be squeezed out. Recent estimates suggest that a three- to six-foot rise could ages Jlluch uf the northern hemisphere • Antarctica. Over the next two destroy 50 to 80 percent of U.S. coastal was covered wilh an ice sheet hundred lo five hundred years, it is wetlands. thousands of feet thick. As th ose possible that the West Antarctic Ice The coastal wetlands of glaciers mel ted waters of the Gulf of M exico. As a • Alpine glaciers. The snow covering sinking, the rise along most of the result, Louisiana loses 50 square miles \'arious mountains throughout the world Atlantic and Gu lf coasts in the next of wetlands per year to the sea. Unless could 111elt. adding another foot to seu century will be six to eight inches major efforts are undertaken to restore h!vcl. greater. some of the natural processes, the The major anticipated impacts of sea • Greenland. Polar scientists estimate projected rise in sea level will accelerate level rises arc inundation, erosion, that gl<1ci

18 EPA JOURNAL Greenhouse Effect: Along the open coast, a rise in sea Other Impacts such a policy is only likely to be level causes the shore to retreat effective if implemented long before considerably beyond the part of the he greenhouse effect may well problems emerge, because it would take beach that is inundated. Higher water T shift our climate to conditions a few decades to carry out. Even if all levels enable storm waves to strike unknown in recorded human emissions were curtailed. the earth further inland to erode more of the history. While our ability to would continue to warm for at least a beach, and decrease the ability of calm predict the full implications of this few decades as the oceans came into waves to :i:ebuild the beach. Along most shift is limited, one approach is to equilibrium, after which the sea would of the U.S. coast, a one-foot rise in sea study the earth's past for clues to continue to rise for at least a few more level will erode 100 to 200 hundred feet its future. Based on geological decades as glaciers came into of beach. This could threaten many studies of life thousands of years equilibrium with the higher resorts that have buildings within 100 ago, we know that many aspects of temperatures. By the time the sea rises feet of the shore. our environment are intertwined one foot, it would be too late to prevent A rise in sea level could increase with climate. They have a several-foot rise in sea level. coastal flooding for three reasons. First, undergone dramatic changes. Therefore, coastal communities must during hurricanes and northeasters, particularly compared to 18,000 also look at ways of adapting to "storm surges" can raise water levels years ago when the earth was whatever rise does take place. Possible five to fifteen fee"t higher than normal, about five degrees Centigrade responses to inundation, erosion, and providing a higher base for these surges cooler. flooding will fall broadly into three to build upon. For example, in As the earth warms, we may see categories: building \Valls to hold back Charleston, SC, areas that changes in all aspects of our the sea, raising the land surface, and today are flooded only once a century climate: changes in rainfall retreating from the shore. would be flooded every 10 years if sea patterns, more frequent storms, Levees and dikes are already used to level rises five feet. Second, erosion can and more extreme temperatures. hold back the sea to protect areas belov.1 leave particular properties closer to the As a result, agriculture and natural sea level in the Netherlands and shore and thus more vulnerable. Finally, ecosystems will be affected. adjacent countries. as well as such U.S. higher water levels decrease the Important changes in farm cities as New Orleans and Texas City. efficiency of natural and artificial productivity can be expected This option will probably be the drainage systems, causing backwaters throughout the world. Crops that preferred response for most major that can increase flooding from now prosper may not grow, and low-lying metropolitan areas. However, rainwater. today's breadbaskets may become it will not be appropriate for coastal Sea level rise also increases the tomorrow's dust bowls. The need barrier islands \·vhose recreational beach salinity of ground and surface waters in to develop new agricultural economies require that the shore be a coastal areas; this can cause important methods and crops, perhaps beach, not a wall. Moreover, this option shifts in coastal ecosystems. Although through advances in can result in a complete loss of coastal fresh water marshes may be replaced by bioengineering, will pose a critical wetlands. For communities built on salt marshes, freshwater cypress challenge to future generations. coral reefs, levees may not be able to swamps are generally converted to The makeup and extent of our keep the water out. shallow lakes when exposed to natural ecosystems, including Raising the land surface may be the excessive salinity levels, which is wetlands and wilderness areas, preferred option for coastal barrier already occurring in Louisiana. may shift. As mild-latitudes warm, island resorts such as Miami Beach, Saltwater intrusion also threatens evergreen forests may be forced to where property values are drinking water supplies. A two-foot rise shift north. If human development high and there is a need to maintain a in sea level would result in blocks this migration, the entire recreational beach. For communities on Philadelphia's Delaware River water ecosystem may be at risk. The coral reefs, this may be the only option. supply being too salty to drink during implications for endangered This method may also be the only \•vay droughts when streamflow is species, many of which are to simultaneously protect wetlands and diminished. Moreover, because the adapted to specific environmental coastal property; however, technologies aquifers on which suburban New Jersey niches, may also be severe. to accelerate the ability of \'\1etlands to relies are recharged by the Climate change will affect the grow upward are expensive and not [currently fresh) Delaware River, availability of water for industrial entirely proven. Nevertheless, raising increased river salinities could result in and agricultural uses, and for the land surface is already employed in salty river water contaminating the drinking. As rainfall patterns shift, many coastal areas where dredges pump aquifers. reservoirs may dry up, or dams sand from offshore to rebuild eroding How can the impacts of rising sea become overburdened. The water beaches. level be prevented or at least projects we build today will last In some cases, property values may ameliorated? Society can respond to 50 years or more. They are not be great enough to justify these problems either by reacting to designed with the assumption that construction of a levee or raising the them as they occur o:r by anticipating tomorrow's climate will be the land. In other cases, defending the shore them as part of the planning and design same as today's-an assumption may be economically viable, but the of coastal communities and other that may not hold as greenhouse social goal of protecting natural long-term projects. The most general gases build up in the atmosphere. shoreline environments may preclude response to ameliorating the problem of The implications of climate those options. In these instances, the sea level rises would be to limit change are broad. The weather, a only alternative will be to adapt to a emissions of greenhouse gases and limit mainstay of conversation today, is retreating shoreline. the acceleration of sea level rise. But likely to take on a growing If the current shoreline is to be importance as the world warms.

DECEMBER 1986 19 Flood dcrnwgt• i11 \'irgi11io llt>rwh \' \ .• \ risf' 111 sf'o /1·1·p/ could in1 n·c1se '10Pdi11g in r:oostul rm·c1s Ji/....1• this.

immediate problems such as toxic waste dumps, urban smog, and dying estuaries? Former EPA Administrator William Ruckelshaus offered this perspective: Our system of government has traditionally been biased toward a sort of institutional inertia, which is eventually broken by development of a massive consensus. The problem is that in our ultimate haste, we may not give adequate a ttention to all th e options. Whether ive can continue in such a manner is a subject open to question ... in an era producing catastrophes of o magnitude greater than in the past, we can place our institutions in situations where precipitate action is the sole option- and it is then that our institutions can be imperiled and individual rights overrun.

"{ Cl When, as in the case of the greenhouse "'::i effect and the rising seas, a period of •i \,> -- ·. several decades must pass between 0:: " - -. iii - cause and eff ect. the future environmental problems should be ~ addressed as they are being created. rather than 1.vai ting until their maintained. there is little advantage to be even greater in the case of wetland consequen es are upon us. defending it bdore the sea rises enough protection. 1f the probl em is not Other nations are also beginning to for defensivn efforts to be necessary. addressed until the sea has risen examine the impli cations of fu ture sea I lowevcr, retrcati 11g from the shore significantl y. it may be too late to level rise. For example. in August 1986, wou ld require considerable lead time. require development to retreat without a conference of 50 scientists and si 11 cc coastal stru ctures can last 50 to costly purchases of land and structures. officials fr om around the Soviet Union lOO yeurs and th eir owners would be By contrast, long-term planning could sponsored by the Estonian Aca demy of rel uctant to move or abandon them. help ensure that new structures are not Sciences recommended that deci sion Thi s n •eel for adva nce planning has built in areas where new wetlands are makers be informed about "the cost of been incorporated into many stulc likely to form . designing new fac ilities for a future ri se coastal zone pla11s, which requ ire that Long-term planning for saltwater compared with the cost of rebu ilding new construction bt) set back from the intrusion into water supplies may also the facilities if such a rise takes place. " ocean shore n distance equal to the be useful. For example, in the case of Professor Eric Bird, an invited observer erosion expected in a given number of the Delaware Ri ver, the water from Australia, expects the e years. orth Carolina req uires houses authoriti es mai nta in reservoirs and recommendations to be acted upon: that ca n be subsequently moved to be release fr esh water when salinity levels "The Soviets have a track record of set back from the shore to a point increase. Sea leve l rise may require implementing the recommendotions of npproximatcly ''30 yl:ms worth" of more reservoirs in the future. While this panel. " erosion and large ])llild ings lo be sc) t there is no need to build those darn s Addressi ng the ca uses of seo level rise hnck "GO vears worth." ln Maine. the today, now is the ti me to identify the will require nations to work together. set-back r~q uiremenl is 1 UO yea rs. locations where they would be bui lt if But indivi dual na ti ons and I lowever. tlrnsn regulations do not yet needed. Otherwise such sit es may be communities and individuals r.an incorporate th e degree of shore retren t developed for other uses precluding the decide for themselves \•vhether and how that mi gh t bu :iccessitaled by the options by which future generations can to prepare fo r and react to the effects accelerated rntes of sen le vel ri se that address the problem. and, in so doing, will help create the are now expected. Fortunately, most of the consequences understanding and public avva reness The need fo r ad\'nnce plunning ma} from the expected ri se in sea level are necessary to address the causes. D still decades in the future. Why should we foc us on these future problems when we are faced today with more

20 EPA JOURNAL Ill Winds Carry No Visas bv or. Mostata K. ro1ba

staggering rise in fatal and other skin even to measure changes in the ozone cancers because of increased ultra\'iolet layer. The only certainty is that radiation over the next century, as well concentrations of trace gases in the as other impacts on human health and atmosphere are increasing. It is not damage to agriculture, water resources, impossible that the consequences of forestry, and wetlands. CFC emi sions may be les disastrous Not a ll the winds of technological than we fear. But only time will tell. change need be ill winds. Someday. " ·e In the meantime. the Vienna may be able to use our newly Convention provides an international recognized power over the climate and legal in trument to ensure that atmosphere in constructive way . appropriate action is being taken. NEP perhaps by preventing droughts or by is guiding neootiations to decide how diverting t rphoons away from inhabited best to protect the ozone layer, for areas. But that is a di tant prospect. We example through production quota . . must first begin to repair the damage emission reductions. or end-u e control that is occurring already. And we can on manufacturing processes. By only hope to su ceed in that task by mid-1987, we hope these negot ialions working together. lead to provisions in the Co1we11tion Dr ..\Io .'>tulo 1'. . Toibo that incorporate fair and effective. yet flexible channels for limiting ozone t took just one ''isolated'' incident First Steps damag . I recently to bring this moral home to Although most of the world's people are the world public. The Chernobyl not responsible for the technologies that catastrophe showed us that nuclear cause problems such as ozone layer The Next Challenge accidents do not discriminate in their depletion, the majority of them have The next great chall enge for :-\EP is to terrible costs. Fallout respects no benefited to some extent from the convince the international community national boundaries when it folio' s the products of such technologies. And to apply the le sons of the \'ienna winds, and radioactivity obeys no laws everyone shares the ri sks posed by their Convention to the related i ·sue of but those of science. ever has the need byproducts. These risks may ary with greenhouse ga e and their impact 011 for international cooperation on global many factors, but the fact remains that world climate. environmental problems been more wP. must all share equally the It will be difficult. \Ve a lread\' know graphically illustrated. responsibili ty for protecting the world's that this impact varies far mon; from The growth of technology in the past environment from further damage. region lo region. or latitude to latitude. 50 years has brought us- indeed, bound The 1985 Vienna Convention for the than docs that of ozone depletion. There us- together through international trade, Protection of the Ozone Layer is one of will be winners and losers because of travel, and communications. But these the first fruits of this global this variati on. but w inning and losing same advances also have entirely new environmental ethic. By calling for an will be unrelated to polluting ncti\'itics. environmental consequences, including international framework for controlling Like ozone depletion. the problnm is major impacts on the earth's protective CFCs, the signatories not only agreed to irrefutably a world problem. blanket of atmosphere. Along with its work on problems which on! ' a handful UNEP has alreadv taken the \'ital benefits. technology has the power to among them had caused; they also prelimin ry steps for n global solution. alter Earth's conditions to something established a model for anticipating and We arc seeking the support of other never experienced in human history. A avoiding other \NOrldwide nitecl ations agencies and otlll'r s ingle nation's activities may now environmental problems. governments and non-government directly affect not just global politics or The road to Vienna was not entirely organizations for a morn responsil>I ' economics, but also the very biological smooth. By all conventional tests, CFC~ attitude towards the en\·ironmcnt. a and atmospheric bases of the planet. appear unimpeachable. They are commitment lo de\·clopnwnt without obody knows how these modifications non-toxic, non-flammable, and among destruction. t\chie\'i11g this \\'ill require will ult imately shape our planet, but the most useful and least wasteful the timelv asses ment of JlOlential they surely 'Nill change our lives. refrigerants and foam-blowing agents impacts. a nc.J the cle\'nlopment of The "greenhouse effect," for example, available to modern industry. It required frameworks for intemational is already altering world climate by careful monitoring and study by U 'EP collabon:it ion to reclut:l! or t>l i111i11a tc trapping heat within the atmosphere, a (the United Nations Environmental damage through S\.\'ift . praclit:nl <1t:lio11. phenomenon with serious implications Programme) and others to make the case We 1nav be able to snve the or.01in for rising sea levels and altered weather for the role of CFCs in ozone depiction. layer no\~'. thanks to tlw Virn111u patterns across the globe. And in the And \-vithout the rese0rch and action Convention and the fusi on of \\'ill. upper atmosphere, emissions of that led to Vienna, CFC emissions might effort, and rnsources that mmk it chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other still be increasing without the lightest possible. International cooperation fur compounds may be rl estroyi ng the suspicion of their damage to the ozone the environment has ga ined a solid protecti ve layer of ozone that shields layer and hence lo human health. How precedent. a new assurance that it can Earth and its inhabitants from harmful many millions of peopl e might have be done. solar radiation. Scientists predict a suffered skin cancers and eye damage The hopeful future opened up by this before the connection with CFC achiev ment offers a breath of fresh ai r (Dr. To/I)(! is T-:x1•1 utin' Dirr•c tCJr ol thl' emissions was made'? after the ill wine! of Chernobyl. We may L1 11it('([ '.\'otions Erll'ironlllc•nt Nor is the Vienna Convention the end even take some strength fro m it. For the Progrnmnic• urn/ Cl lf'rrdin° fioure on of the road. The details for controlling sake of the victims of that tragedy nn d globed e111 ·iro11mentcrl iss~<'s '.} CFCs internationallv still need to be thei r grieving fa111i li cs. Int us hope so. D hammered out, and-it is still difficult DECEMB ER 1986 21 Finding Answers by John H. Chafee

These problems-and the international interest in them-are dramatic new reminders that we live on a vulnerable planet, and that, if we do not think and act in consort, we may indeed perish in consort. In June 1986, the Senate Subcommittee on Environmen tal Pollution conducted two days of hearings to explore the nature of these problems and to examine what is being done by the U.S. government, domesticall y and internationall y, to both improve our understanding of these matters and to respond to them. Why did we decide to spend time on these problems? Why is all of this so important? Why are policymakers demanding action before scientists have resolved all of the questions and uncertainties? We are doing so because there is a very real possibility that man-through ignorance or indifference, or both- is irreversibly altering the abili ty of our atmosphere to perform basic life support functions fo r the planet. This is not a matter of Chicken Little telling us the sky is falling. At our hearings, w e heard graphic, powerful, and d isturbing testimony from distinguished scientists. The scientific evidence and the international consensus is that we have a problem , a serious problem. We already know a great deal, and there is a great deal more that we can predict with relative certai nty. 1\ SfHw1·ship vi1•1\ of Ecrrth. Prn/Jlt·ms ol lthough the problems of It is true that we lack the tools to ozo111• riqJ/C'tion onri lhl' gn•1•11lwus1• A stratospheric ozone depletion, the close all of the scientific gaps. We don't dlr'c t "cm• drnmotic· rw11· n•mind1•rs J/wt greenhouse effect. and climate change completely understand our climate 11·1· li1'C' on u 1•ul11f'rnblr· pJonPt. .. h ave not yet reached the same level of systems, nor can we predict precise public recognition as toxic waste or acid regional outcomes. But we w ill always rain, more and more people are be faced with a level of uncertainty. becoming aware of and con cerned about Scientists have characterized our them. The coverage that these issues has response to the greenhouse effect as a received in the past few months is global experiment. It strikes me as a evidence of this. /\cross this country, form of planetary Russian roulette. Canada, and Europe, there have been We should not be experimenting with (S<'notor Chcrf!'o. H-H .1.. is u sC'nior Earth's life support systems unless we 1 stories and editorials in newspapers. on nw111ber of tlic· [ .S. Serro tu l\111·imn11H•nt are sure that the results w ill be benign. und Public Works Commitlf•e ond from nati onal television and radio, and in magazines such as re 11·sweek and The In a statement that serves as a powerfu 1 l!lll 1 to Jontwn· 1987 clwirncl tllf' reminder of a basic concept, Russell S1illl:o11111iitte1• -on E111·irn11rnuntn/ New Yorker. Peterson, chemist and former chairman Po/lution. Jn furn• HJ/Hi, lw clrnirod u s!'r'it>.~ of J1eurings CHI uppl'r otrnosplwrc prol>Jt'lllS.)

22 EPA JOURNAL of the President's Council on In addition, we must begin to consider Controlling chlorofluorocarbons Environmental Quality, has said, "we the choices that must be made if we are (CFCs) is a prime example of an cannot afford to give chemicals the going to avoid further buildup of important initial step. CFCs are not the same constitutional rights that we enjoy harmful gases in the atmosphere. All of only source of the problem, but they are under law ... chemicals are not innocent us must recogn ize that these are no a s ignificant factor: controlling them until proven guilty." longer just science issues. They are nO\".' would represent a major By not making policy choices today, policy issues. They demand solutions. accomplishment. Given the risk sticking to a "wait and see'' approach, Many of the government w itnesses associated with ozone modification and we may in fact be choosing by default. who appeared before my Subcommittee climate change. a treaty that By allowing the so-called "greenhouse" last summer argued that we need more immediatelv limits and ultirnatelv gases to continue to build up in the studies. They contend that there are too e liminates the availability of han~ful atmosphere, this generation may be m an y scientific uncertainties to warrant CFCs would eem to be a sensible committing a ll of us to severe economic action. course to pursue. The good news i that. and environmental disruption without under the leadership of the nited ever having decided that the value of ations Environment Programme. " busin ess as usual" is worth the risks. Sure, we can continue to study international negotiations to control T h ose who believe that these are the problem-and we should CFCs are currently under way. The not problems to be dealt with by fu ture continue our studies-but we so good news is that we don't have an generations are deluding themse lves. agreement yet. Our activi ti es may a lread y have cannot wait until these studies The need for international committed us to some level of are completed. We need cooperation in addressing these matters temperature change. If historical action. is ob' ious. We are dealing w ith a global evidence is any guide , even a slight issue. But the difficulty of gt~ ttin g warming may be enough to turn international agreement should not keep productive, temperate c limates into Only Lee Thomas recognized what is the United States from taking action deserts . To quote from a recent at stake here. He was the only unilaterally. By taking such action. \\'ll Department of Energy report, " large decisionmaker from the government can move once again into the role \\'ll changes in both precipitation and the who appreciated the fact that there will once proudly held a· world leader in extent of d eserts and grasslands can be always be scientific uncertainty and that en vironmenta l protection. \\'e can set associated with re la tively mall policymakers a nd those who make the example. A country as large and varia ti ons in the global mean regulatory decisions cannot allow powerful as ours can afford to make temperature. " them selves to be paralyzed by these tem porary sacrifices that ultimately will Society 's course today is much like a gaps in knowledge. benefit all of mankind. T he trick will be car being driven towards the edge of a Sure, we can continue to studv the to d o so in a manner that does not cliff. W e can go ahead, take no action. problem- and v.re should contin~te our unfair! penal ize industry in this and drive off the edge. Or we can p ut the studies- but we canno t wait until these countrv. brakes on now, before the car gets any studies are completed. We need action. The -importa nc' of these issues is closer to the edge of the cliff and before Those who argue against action like to matched only by the comple:xit:;. 13ut WP mome ntum takes us over the sid e. We recite the caveats. uncertainties. and have fa ced and sol\'ed c:omplnx have a choice. margins of error that accompany problems before. Them is no reason for The question is: How do w e make it7 scientific reports a nd projections. Bu t us to throw up our hands and \\'ilit for Fi rst, it is important to fo cus attention the margins of error usually associated the inevitable. on the potential effects of ozone with the greenhouse effect are in terms We lose so very litt le liy tryi ng. \\'l' modifi cation and climate change. of m ere decad es. Di sagreem ents over the lose everything by doing nothing. Simply te lling people there will be a accuracy of p rojections obscure the real Tough cho ices must bu made. ;rnd ll'P change is not enough. They need to issue: Do we have the right to pollute need to start what promist!S to bt! d long, understand how they w ill be affected by the atmosphere today in a manner that sometimes frustrating procnss. 13y it. will wreak havoc in as fevv as 100 to working together, we can minimize the 300 years7 disruptions that are inevitable. But there Obviously. no one step is going to will be changes. Future generations- of solve the multi tude of problems a ll life forms- depend on us. 0 associated with these matters. But we must not let the enormity of the task keep us from taking a series of small steps.

DECEMBER 1986 23 The Science of Global by John S. Hoffm John Bruce Wei and Stephen

Sieve Delancy

tratospheric ozon e protection and the About the same time, laboratory now possess the power to Sgreenhouse effect represent complex scientists for the General Motors fundamentally alter our atmospheric scientific cha ll e nges to the global corporation developed surroundings on a global scale, the community. The scie ntific theory chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) for u se in world community and its scientists face behind globa l warming from the refri geration. T he last link in the saga of a new challenge. Can our scientific buildup of greenhouse gases elat es back CFCs and ozone was forged in 1974 understanding and resourcefulness keep wHll over a century. In 1861, the Irish when two scientists at the University of at least one step ahead of any physicist Tyndall conducted a seri es of Cal ifornia, Rowland and Molina, disruptions that our actions may cause? experiments which in effect fi rst predicted that CFCs would release Can science map for us a future course demonstrated the greenho use theory by chlorine in the upper atmosphere. that allows us to continue down the showing that water vapor absorbs partially d estroying the ozone layer. road of progress while avoiding any infrared radiati on- the heat energy Our scientific and industrial progress inadvertent clangers along the way? which escapes from earth. Soon aft er continues. In a little over a century we The scientific challenge is to provide Ty ndnll's discovery, the Swedish have learned that our atmosphere plays information and improve understanding. physicist Arrhenius went s traight lo thR an instrumental role in nurturing life on Because it is scientific evidence that heart of the issue by positing that our planet. But we have a lso learned will trigger society 's responses to these carbon d ioxide, another a tmospheric thal as our population and industry global environmenta l issues, scientists gas, would absorb enough infrared have grown in scale, they have become must recognize and meet their radiatio n to warm tho earth by several capable of altering the fragi le ba lance of newfound challenge. Lead ership from degrees. the atmosphere that has evolved over both in clustrv and elected officials, Evidence concerning the existence time bare ly touched by human forces. along with a-careful watch by the and role of the ozone layer can he traced The carbon cycle, for example, public, are also essential elements to to I he work of Chapman in the 1930s. developed slowly over many hundreds ensuring that we effectively act upon of thousands of years. Yet in little over a this scientific knowledge. century following the Industrial Revolution, two concomitant fl lollnw11 is /)irector oj thr• strotcgic The Scientific activities- fo ssil fuel burning and forest s ruclir ·s stull in EP1\ · ~ Ollic.u uf PolicT, Challenge Plorrnirrg. imd Eniluution. uncl murwg<'s clearing- have d isrupted this historic cycle a nd led to a 20 percent increase in Since the age of Francis Bacon in the tlH• stnrtosplwric: oZOEH' progrum in tlil' mid-16th century, science has 1\gt>JHT 's Officr· ol Air c111d ll(J(/iution . atmospheri c carbon dioxide levels. \\'l' lls is Pn·sident o/ the /hu r: C' Faced with the knowledge that we progressed according to the precepts of C:or11puny , n cons1i/ti11g firm to L'P1\ . observation, experimentation, and Sr· idrd is Senior· 1\rwl\'st in OPPE.) repetition. Experiments were carefully designed to lest hypotheses, and a

EPA JOURNAL Computer models help sciPntists stud.1· tlw cyr:ling of corbon tlirou.!.;h ocecrns. otmosplwrl'. und biospherf' C111d its possible efkcts on< limotl!.

scientist 's findings were not accepted until others had repeated and verified the experiment. Sc ience w as not a menta l exerc ise, but one that bloomed in the laboratory. As the laboratory tools became more powerful, the grasp of scientific understanding reached fu rther and further. The greenhouse effect a nd ozone depletion represent questions i,vhi ch stretch the scientific process to its limits. Because w e have only one earth, we cannot design a n experiment which scientists can study, understand, and reproduce. As oceanographer Roger Revelle pointed out in 1957, we "are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past, nor be repeated in the future". example, NASA scientists know the precipitation . length of growing season. temperatures and atmospheric the l ife cvcle of pests. and comp ' titi\·e Development of compos itions of Venus and Mars. Given balances ·among plants. Even to begin to Models the composition of greenhouse gases in understand this interaction between the Laboratory analys is and physical their atmospheres, c limate models for atmosphere an d biosphere requires m easurements provide important pieces these planets can be tested to see if they scientists to cross their ofte n of the complex puzzle that is the can reproduce known temperatures. The compartmented boundaries. For greenhouse effect, but man y aspects of success of this comparison is one example, while some researchers are the overall design remain a myste ry. To method used t establish the existence novv investigating tho influence of address this problem , scientists have of the greenhouse effect and to sup port c li mate change on natural vegetation developed computer models tha t the pred ictive capability of compu ter a nd others nre studying the effects of simulate the millions of interactions models. u ltraviolet radiation on these same ecosystems, no one has yet attem pted to that constitute the operation of the Interdisciplinary natural world. Using models, scientists study the joint effects of climatt! change can study the cycling of carbon through Approaches a nd ultraviolet rad iation . oceans, a tmosphere, and biosphere Fo r scien tists to investigate The complexity of these studies successfully the earth's systems for under various conditions. To keep them dema nds an interd isciplinary approach. from be ing pa per exercises, they can c lu es to its future, thev m ust continue Emissions of trace gases into the to develop new r esear~ : h nrnthods and also test these models against historical atmosphere are not only cha nging the data. For example, the trapped air engage in cooperative ufforts. \N!! havu radiati ve ba lance of the earth's surface reached a stage in human sociuty whore bubbles in deep ice cores can be studied and affecting its ozone layer; they are to reveal the composition of the o ur capacity to uJJ derstancl the naturnl also influencing the oceans and world has never been greatm. but whern atmosphere thousands of years ago. The bios phere. which in turn wil l change geographic dispers ion of fossilized tree our tendency to inadvertently, perhaps the composition and climate of the irreversibly, alter that world is also pollen can yi eld clues to the location of atmosphere. For exam p le. scientists forests in the same geologic era. unparalleled. We now fa ce a race believe that increased carbon dioxide between our scientific advances and the allowing biologists to test whether a will affect plan ts in very complex ways. climate-biomass model using historical c hanges tow ards which we are Higher levels of the gas may directly propell ing the world. an d o ur ability to atmospheri c conditions vwuld increase photosynthesis and plant reproduce known forest locations. respond to these advances a nd changes. growth. In cl irectly, climate change [t is with o ptimism about our Another test involves s imulating the related to carbon dioxide and other conditions of other planets. For resourcefulness that we move fonrnrcl greenhouse gases might alter in addressing these issues. [J

DECEMBER 1986 2!:> VIEWPOINT: Nevv Thinking in American Environmentalism by Frederic D. Krupp But, even as the debate echoes. a third demands the environmental movement stage of environmental ad\'Ocacy is attract more of the best minds from a en of the country's largest national emerging. one that is not satisfied with wider range of disciplines. Finding ne\\· T environmental groups have chosen the precast role of opponent to ways to solve persistent problems is ne1"' leaders in the past two years. As environmental abuses. Its practitioners harder than merely opposing them. But one member of that incoming class, l recognize that, behind the waste dumps there are examples of success emerging sec not onlv new faces, but also the and dams and power plants and from various quarters. beginnings -of a new strategy in the pesticides that threaten major The Institute for Local Self-Reliance movement, one that may make obsolete environmental harm, there are nearly in Washington. DC, helped Chester, PA, some of the hard-cast assumptions about always legitimate social needs-and that develop a plan for recycling garbage environmentalism 's role and limits. long-term solutions lie in finding under which the city has now sold $335 The first stage of the movement, alternative \·vays to meet those million of bonds to build a separation represented by President Theodore underl ying needs. Otherwise, we are plant. The plant will allow neighboring Roosevelt and the early Sierra Club, was treating only symptoms; the problems Philadelphia to save almost one-third of a reaction to truly rapacious will surface again and again. Answer the cost of burning its garbage, while exploitation of natural resources in the the underlying needs, and you have a producing less pollution. wake of the Industrial Revolution. The lasting cure. Industry itself has demonstrated that earl focus was on conservation, To move beyond reactive opposition such approaches work. Mi nnesota stemming the loss of forest lands and demands a high level of economic and Mining & Manufacturing Co., showing wildlife. especially in the West. scientific expertise. When third-stage leadership with its Pollution Prevention In the 1960s, people began to realize environmentalists worry about a Pays program. has saved $328 million that they, too, were becoming victims of proposed dam, for example, they don't by reducing the amount of hazardous environmental abuse, that the only document the damage it 'Nill cause. and other wastes it creates. environment at risk was not just th e one They also search for other ways to This search fo r solutions has in Yellowstone Park but also the one we address the need for new water or something to offer both schools of al l live in every day. This second stage, power supplies that the dam is criti cs described earli er. The criticisms. oft en assumed to have begun with supposed to address. Growth , jobs. though toward different ends, both Rachel Carson's Si lent Spring, taxpayer and stockholder interests, assume that the issue is "either-or": recognized that the contamination of agricultural producti vity. adequate Either the industrial economv wins or water, land, and air had sown seeds of water and power for industry and the environment \Nins, with ~ne side's cl 'struction for both v•.'ildlife and consumers-all these are part of the gain being the other's loss. The nevi' humans. third-stage agenda. environmentalism does not accept The strat egy in this second phase has One of several examples of the third "either-or" as inevitable and has shown been to try to halt abusive pollution. stage in acti on is the experience of the that in many critical instances it is a just as the earl y conservationists tri ed to Environmental Defense Fund (E DF) in fallacy. end the over-exploitation of resources. Cal ifornia utility regulati on. In the late This approach can mean new federal laws such as the lean Air 1\ ct 1970s the country's largest coalitions, even coalitions of fo rmer and Clean Water Act and agencies like investor-owned util ity. Pacifi c Gas & enemies. But the third stage of the Environ nwnta I Protect ion 1\ ge ncy Electric Co, had plans to build $20 environmentali sm is in no sense a move reflect this approach. billion in large coal and nuclear power toward compromise, a search fo r the Second-stage environmentalism has plants. The company thought those in-between position. It will st ill need long since earned 1vidc acceptance by plants were indispensable to California's skilled advocacy- even in the public. 13 y now, it is also stirring economic health: many others thought court- against narrow institutional some restless comment, 11 ot only fro m they were unbea rable impositions on vision or vested interest in the status th ose who think it goes too far. but also California's environment. An EDF quo. Nor is it in any way a repud iation from those who think it doesn't go far team-a lawyer, an economist, and a of the second-stage approach now enough. Some believe that computer analyst- developed a package crystall ized in the major environmental environmenlldists are relentlessly of alternative energy sources and laws (any more than the Clean Air Act nega tive. opposing industry by reflex, conservation investm ents, including is a repudiat i n of Teddy Roosevelt). s1

nlike those who died in the choking plants, factories, incinerators, ships in Headlined the ew York Times: "Smog U smogs of London or in the gas the harbor, motor vehicles, and is Really Smaze! 4-Day Concentration of clouds in Bhopal or Cameroon, the apartment house furnaces. The city was Smoke and Haze Causes Optical victims of two of New York City's just beginning to deal with the problem. Illusions and Discomfort. Two Airports "killer smogs" went to their deaths Its fledgling air pollution control agency Close as Fog is Around. An imals at Zoo unnoticed by local hea lth authorities or had opened its first laboratory in a Restless. Attendance at Empire State the public. Nevertheless, the tragic dusty high school classroom on 101st Down.'' incidents, in 1953 and 1966, ultimately Street on October 13, 1953, less than six The tabloid Daily News said. ··smog produced a legacy of cleaner air for the weeks before the disaster. Lingers on In Summer Dividend." Wrote city's millions of residents. On November 18, laboratory staff a News reporter, "The hea\'Y smog and Both of New York's "killer smogs" observed that concentrations of sulfur chemical concentration in the air occ1.1ned in late November as Indian dioxide were rising beyond the range lingered on yesterday in Tevv York, to summer heat inversions trapped the considered normal for the city's air. At make the fourth day in a row in which chemicals and particulates from the same time, a number of New local folks suffered from eye and throat industrial smokestacks, chimneys, and Yorkers were telephoning the lab to irritations. The unseasonable warmth vehicles that crammed the city streets, complain about eye irritation and continued also .....The Health keeping the pollutants from rising. Departme nt yesterday received man~ · It was years before anyone knew that calls on how to treat eye irritntions." New Yorkers had died because of the It was years before anyone The newspaper cove-rage gi\•es no 1953 incident. Ten years after the knew that New Yorkers had indication of any major h ealth episode, a Senate Public Works died because of the 1953 problems, except for an increase in Committee report stated that, "while the highway and harbor accidents attributed air pollution problems of the United incident. to poor vis ibility. Any reported increase States differ from those in Great Britain, in hospitnl ad missions seemed to relate similar calamiti es such as killer smogs coughing. On November 17, the sulfur to accidents. The stud\' released years have occurred in this country. Until dioxide level ranged from 0.07 to 0.17 later about the actual death toll - recently, the one usually mentioned was ppm (parts per million). On the 18th. it indicated that checking hospital that which struck Donora, PA, in rose as high as 0.65 ppm; on the 19th to admissions would not have hown the October 1948, where one third of the 0.86, not dropping back lo ··normal" reason for what amounted to an almost population of 14,000 became ill and 17 ten percent increase in the city's until the 22nd. At the time, S02 was the died. This episode was recognized only pollutant measured, but mortality rate. immediately as a disaster. ln contrast, subsequent studies were able to ew York City Commissioner of 1\ir an episode that occurred in New York calculate smokeshade values (the degree Pollution Leonard Greenburg was one of City was not recognized until statistical of haze and murkiness of the air) for the the few public officials to take the evidence, presented almost nine years same period w ith comparable results. A situation very seriously from a health later, disclosed that during a brief study of concurrent meteorological point of view. On tho third day of smog period of weather stagnation at the time, conditions showed warm, li ght air attack the Times reported. " t\ir in which unusually high levels of sulfur trapping cooler, denser a ir near the pollution commissioner Leonard dioxide and smoke shade had been ground for several days. This prevented Greenburg warned that co ntin ued recorded, the number of deaths in New contaminants from rising and pollution during an extended condition York City had been approximately 200 dispersing. of inversion could contribute to sickness in excess of normal." and deaths, as in London last Most of New York was unaware of December." However. no one suspected Although New York City's original what was happening. On November that New Yorkers were suffering smoke abatement laws were enacted in 20th, ew York Daily News homemaker aggravated pulmonary, heart, or other the first decade of the century, ew columnist Sally Jo y Brown wrote, serious health conditions, or that they Yorkers had grown accustomed to "Don't let mild vveather fool you. It's were dying as a r esult. The city's hea lth smoke and grit and soot from power time to think Christmas celebrations." commissioner even said there had been The weather forecast was hazy and no significant increase in deaths during mild. The first news stories on the smog the smoggy spell. Mortality fi gures were (Poµkin is o Writer/Editor in th e EPA appeared the fo llowing day but did not not immediately available, and it would Office of Public; Affoirs.J note the serious dangers involved.

DECEMBER 1986 27 Downtoll'n .\funhottan looks l1kf' ( 'l1,11d Cit1· 111 this surrc·uiistic 111'11 ol u J 'Jlifl smog utlm k. llc•udi11gs of sulfur dio\1d1• < C1rlio11 1110110\idc" und huz1 n 01 111 d record Jc·1·1•/.-,, oml .!00 dl'otb 11 •n Jolt r C1t fributf'd to th1• snw~.

be a long lime before anyone knew what Thanksgiving Day 1966 was mild, but carbon monoxide emissions presented had reall y happened. the skies were murky gray and the most sign ifi cant health threat. First published notice of the tragic low-lying dirty clouds obscured the Surprisingly. neither in this nor the outcome appeared in Public Ilcalt h view of mid-Manhattan streets from the earli er epi ode did ozone play a Heports in January 1962. The a uthors top of the Empire State Building. A significant role. incluclcd former commissioner million people lined Central Park West Heller put the city on an alert bas is. Greenburg, by then a professor at the and Broadway to wat h the traditional The city's coal burning municipal Albert Einstein Col lege of Medicine: Dr. Macy's parade. A check with Mac r's 20 incinerators were shut down, setting off Morris Jacobs. former director of the air years later showed no mention of the a mad scramble for garbage scows lo poll ut ion control laboratories: nnd M.M. smog in the store's historical records. move Gotham's holiday garbage Braverman, formc,r chief chemi st in the Nevertheless, the city's air laboratory, accumulation out to sea for dumping. laboratories and now director. They whi h by now had moved to an ol d The power companies were asked to reconstructed the development of the ai r courthouse in Harl em, was recording switch from coul to gas und oil. The pollution situati on day by day. Then, very high S02 , particulate, and other Health Commissioner warned people following tho advice of a British pollution levels. with chronic lung and heart diseases to physician who had done comparable stay indoors. studies after England's 1948 and 1952 The cl ay after Thanksgivi ng, Deputy killer smogs, they applied stati stical "We came close to closing the Mayor Robert Price issued what wus methods used in mortality and city down," he recalls. believed to be the first appeul ever made morbi dity studies to determine the dail to Nevv York's citizens in connection increase in death rate as compared to with a smog problem. He and Heller normal rates for the month of The tabloid Doily News, which asked that all apartment houses and November. Thest! stati stics showed a normally would have front paged a commercial users of heating oil reduce cumulative increased death toll of parade picture, insteu cl headlined: the indoor lemperatues to 60 °. that between 1 70 and 200. Studies of th e "Smog Reaches Danger Mark." Inside, apartment houses slop us ing their causes of deat h showed an increase in the big type read, "Smog Threatens A incinerators, that the use of personal pulmonary and !mart ailments related to City Emerge ncy." The New York Times automobiles be limited , and that the smog, esprn:ially in the very young added, "Smog Here ear to Danger trucking companies curtail deli veries as and those over 45. Points. Pati ents Warned. Ai r Gels Purer much as possible. At the time. Conrud Thei r report att rncted little noti ce During Day Bu t Pollution Rises Again to Simon, now Director, Air and Waste out side of lcch11ical publicutio11s until it a High in Evening. City Officials Management Division, in the wa s used by Ne w York newspapl!rs in Concerned. ight Meeting I leld to Environmental Protection Agency's background stories during the Weigh Steps If Condition Persists. Region 2 Office in lew York, wus a Thanksgiving weekend smog att uck in Utilities' Help Asked.·· ew York University scienti st. He acted 196(i. Au stin Heller, the ci ty's as liaison bel\.veen the city lronicull . on ovember 23, I !Ju£i, a Commissioner of Air Pollution. said the administration and the scientists during Nc:w York Times story told of polluti on index had reached a high of the emergency. "We came close to Consoliclatod Edison's hopes to reduce 60.6, more than rn points over the closing the city down." he recal ls. thl~ amount of sulfur dioxide it s plnnts health clanger mark, between eight and Even though some hospitals did would be putting into New York's nin e p.m. on Thursday. The index report an increase in cli nic and atmosphere during the coming decade. figures represent a formula based on emergency room visits by persons The star 1 no ted that New York 's measuring the combin d amount of suffering from lung and heart ai lments, atmospliero had the highest sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and and the Daily News headlined a story. co11ce11trati on of S02 in the nati on. a 11 haze or smoke in the air. He said the "How Gray Death Fells Old And averng' of o.rn ppm, tlrn l high levels of readings may have been the highest in Young," there was still no reported 3.5 ppm had been rncordcd in ew York's history, and. in spite of late increase in the city's death rate. (Oddly. Manhattan, nnd that a level of l .2 ppm ni ght declines. the levels were expected it was during this incident that the for 1!i ght hours is considered fatal. lo rise dangerously when rush hour people of New York learned fo r the first According to the article. the bi g utility traffic began in the morning and time of the 1953 deaths. and one public hoped to red uce its annual so ~ output businesses began opening up. For the official sa id that, had the smog reached from :~ -Hl , 000 tons i 11 1UGG to 100.000 in first lime in the city's history, air l !l 7G. quality measurements showed that

28 EPA JOURNAL tolerance levels for the six major pollutants regu lated under the Clean Air Act. State of ew York statistics show that S02 emissions ha\'e dropped from 786,000 tons to 83.000 in 1975. and another 20 to 30 percent since then. Particulate emissions are down from 193,000 tons in 1966 to 35.000 in 1975: itrous oxide is down from 272,000 tons to 207 .500. Carbon mono. ide levels, however. have remained about the same and it is this pollutant and ozone (formed in th e ambient air throu0 h the reaction of other pollutants) w hich remain a problem. The CO figures may be m i leading. Both the c it y and EPA attribut current problems to hot spots caused b\' collection of autmobile a nd tru~k fumes Donora levels , 11,000 people might have concern, led to the e nactment of the in building canyons in areas like the been killed.] Again, it was not until Dr. New York City Air Pollution Contro l midtown garment and printing trades Greenburg and his colleagues did a Code in 1971 . According to the New d istricts. In these congested traffic areas. morbidity study and publis hed their York City Department of Environmenta l every effort is made to keep traffic findings in the Archives of Protection. it is one of the "strictest and m oving even fas ter than on other street. . Env ironmental Health a year aft er the most compreh ensive in the nation." and extra policemen on the street deal event that another d a il y death rate Has it produced the desired results? with double parking and problems li ke increase attributed to the smog was In 1969, Norman Cousins, chairman of large trucks delaying traffic while they m ade public. It w as comparable to the the Mayor's Task Force on Air Pol lution negoti ate cl ifficu lt intersect ions. one 13 years earlier, with a to tal of in the City of 1 ew York. w rote then EPJ\ 's Simon says thiJ t the air in New about 200 fa talities. Mayor John V. Lindsay: York Citv is ''much better toda\'." 13\' There was a fo rtunate as pect lo both " . .. Nevv York Cit y's a ir is cleaner 1972. he. says. the c ity's ai r poilutio;1 the 1953 and the 1966 inc idents. Each and mo re breathable today than it was problems in terms of S02 and occurred on a weekend when traffic was in 1966 .. . We can take a reasonabl e particu lates had been halved. Current rel at ively light a nd businesses and degree of pride in the fact that no major reports. whicl1 may make people think factories w ere closed, and the Indian city, e ither in the United States or the city is not keeping up with other s ummer weather reduced the deman d abroad , can show a compa rable gai n in major metropolitan areas are. in Simon's for heat. Had the episodes occurred on a the fi ght against a ir pollution . view, misleading because more than weekday, pollution levels- and also, "Stagnation con d i lions existed d uring half the needed im provements lrnd probably, the death toll- would have four days in September 1969. It is a lready bee:1 accomplished before the been even high er. important to ask w hat would have current mon itoring began. Public offi cia ls began almost happened on th ose days if the pollution T he one potentially serious thront immediate ly to attack the problem. In levels had continued to worsen at the today from the s ix 111.ajor pollutants in December 1966, the city's administrative same rate of d eteri orati on that occu rred the ew Yo rk area would come from code section on air pollu tion \-\•as fr om 1964 to 1966. The answer is that ozo ne. strengthened insofa r as pol1 utant levels there could have been a substantia l There have been no more killer were concerned. But the persistent number of casualties. T he fact that an sm ogs. In fact, Simon thinks the onlv presence of nitrogen oxides from power episode did not occur attests to the way one could happen now is as the plants and a utomobiles a nd of unburnt capability of the City's programs to result of a s ingle source explos ion or hydrocarbons was a continuing concern. protect its air resource." extraordinary s ituation. Tlwse The evolution of new federal an d state The 1984 air qua lity trends published improvements are the legacy of concern pollution standards, combined with this by EPA show New York City w ith in that emerged aft er the I 966 Thanksiving Day smog d isaster. r l

DECEMBER 1986 29 retrofit for environmental controls and Is Environmental Control get back into the mainstream7 Again, MISI has come u p with some surprising fa cts. an Expense or an Investment? Take a state like Ohio, one beset with adversity as heavy industries like steel, by Don Bronkema industrial machinery, petrochemicals, and utilities have faced changing market demand, recession, technical obsolescence, and stiff competition from o social protest movement of the impetus for a multi-billion dollar abroad. Ohio industry has doubtless industry. If the industry N post-war era came of age as swiftly been a major polluter, and it has had to were concentrated in one company, it as environmental protection. Once the pay out a lot of money for federally province of eccentrics, it became almost would rank near the very top of the mandated improvements. But more overnight the cause and commitment of Fortune 500. often than not, says MIS!, those very the vast preponderance of the American Last year, for example, managers same industries have also been called people. Expenditures for pollution invested $8.5 billion in abatement and upon to produce pollution control control oared as we tried to restore the control equipment. This in turn created equipment and services. $19.3 billion in sales and 167,000 jobs. bright skies and sparkling waters of In addition, industrial polluters The MJSI report identifies the pre-industrial times. confronted by tough standards not This commitment has never fa ltered. benefi ciaries of these outlays by infrequently come up wi th innovations Between 1970 and 1984, we spent an industry, occupation, and geographic that not only help themselves, but estimat cl $433 billion in publi c and region. It rebuts the notion that inadvertently assist others as well. And, private funds to clean up our air and environmental programs are nothing but whenever new equipment and processes water. These billions have already paid regulations, standards, compliance must be introduced in response to the substanti al dividends. The major monitoring, and such-like bureaucratic aforementioned economic conditions, utmospheric contaminan ts have been paper p ushing. In fact, some 80 percent industry can wrap pollution controls dropping steadily- in some cases, of pollution-related spending is into the system at lower cost than li kely dramatically- over the last decade. We attributable to business activity, under complex retrofitting. In that case, have at the very least held our own, and consumer goods, construction, and cleaner air and water are a collateral in places even made great headway in research and product development. benefit of investments that would have The MISI report confirms that some cleansing our rivers and lakes of the had to be made anyway. industries and communities have been so-called classical pollutants. We have The results, in any event, are gravely disrupted by pollution control, la id u foundation for detoxifying benefi cial. Pollution abatement and especially old-line heavy industry in the abandoned waste dumps and for control created 8,577 new jobs in Ohio con trolling active dump sites. rust belt. But control expenditures also in 1985 and generated additional llowever, some still beli eve that provide contracts for certain mature industrial sales of $963 million. pollution control is more of an expense companies that have fa llen on hard MISI estimates that in 1985 U. S. than an investment and that we just times due to competition from other business spent $4.2 billion on can't afford to spend so much in this materials, poor sales, and foreign air-pollution control equipment, $3.2 competition. They stimu late frontier otherwise commendable effo rt . They billion on water-pollution control companies in high-tech sectors that can blame environmental management for equi pment, and $1 .1 billion on lowering the standard of living, help restore the balance of payments, equipment for disposal of solid waste. throv1iing thousands out of work, raising and they have opened up broad Some $10 billion in industry sales, $1.3 the cost of products, cutting into opportunities for science, engineering, billion in corporate profits, and 85,000 productivity, dri ving some com panies and technical personnel. jobs were produced by investments in out of business, pushing entire Total business investment in air-pollution abatement. Water-pollution industries over the brink, and givi ng an pollution control since the early 1970s, control expenditures resu lted in $7.l advantage to ruthless foreign MISI estimates, is now over $100 billion in sales, $900 million i.n profits, compel itors. billion, with much more still to come as and 59,000 jobs. Waste disposal created But, according to Management the international market for control $2.5 billion in sales, $300 milli on in Information Services, Inc. (MIS1), these equipment expands. profits, and 22,500 jobs. arguments are essentially fol se. In u The MISI report recognizes that The study analyzes the economic and report publish ed in January 1986, MIS! generous spending on the environment employment benefits resulting from concluded that pollution abatement has probably reduces spending for some each type of control investment, with not only provided environmental popular consumer items. But it notes direct and indirect effects on 80 benefits, it has also provided the that a clean and enjoyable environment industries and 475 occupati ons for the is an essential feature of the modern n ation as a whole and fo r various states standard of Jiv ing and of contemporary expectations. Indeed , some observers (llron"-emu is u \\ ' ri!l'r:l~dilor in the E/'1\ insist that it is a precondition for the ()(fin· oj PubliC' Affuirs.) survival of th e human race. But what about the jobs and companies and industries that go clown the drain7 What about the towns and cities and states that can 't afford to

30 EPA JOURNAL and regions. MIS! reports that amounted to $69 billion-three-quarters economy. It is setting an example that is air-pollu tion control creates the most of it private money for expenditures occurring in other developed countries sales and profits per dollar of ranging from stack-gas scrubbers to and that is beginning to occur in expenditure. while investment in catalytic converters for cars. The Bureau developing countries. It is often at the solidwaste d isposal technology estimates that such expenditures had cu tting edge of technical innovation. It generates the most jobs. risen from about 1.5 percent of G Pin boosts productivity and will help make The MIS! findings are by no means 1972 to 1.8 percent in 1984. possible the preservation of the global u nique. The U.S. Departme'1 t of The conclusion seems inescapable: ecosystem upon which life and Com merce B·Jreau of Ecorn, mic Analvsis environmental management is a major civil ization depend. It is one of thos has just reported that pol I ution contr~l positive element in the American realities of the marketplace that is investments in 1984 their latest record, unlikely to go away. 0

Update A review of recent major EPA activities and developments in the pollution control program areas

it is seeking over $40 million Substances Control Act. stated that "this action will AIR in penalties from four EPA was first notified in reduce ... threats to the corporations involved in an April 1986 by the Canadian public and the environment Emissions Trading Policy illegal leaded ga oline government of the presence posed by the substances." EPA has completed a operation. of PCB-contaminated oil in These substances were seven-year effort by issuing EPA alleges in separate De'Longhi radiators. l\ fter specifically targeted for land new , final guidelines on the citations that the fo ur collecti ng oil sam ples, EPA disposal restrictions by July use of emissions trad ing, or corporations produced lead fo und that up to 50 percen t 1987 in 1984 amendments to the "bubble," to meet gasoline a t a Carteret, .]., of the De'Longhi h eaters with the Resource Conservation pollution reducti on fa cility from ov. 1, 1982, to the model numbers 5108. an d Recovery r\ cl. The law requirements u nder the Clean Dec. 31, 1985, that greatly 5108T , and 5307 may be sets specific ·levels above Air Act. T he Agency's final exceeded Agency standards contaminated with low which wastes containing these policy continues to authori ze on the amount of lead concen trations of PCBs. substances must be treated use of environmenta lly sound allowed in gasoline. amed Only a small number of pri or to any land disposal. bubbles in all areas of the in the citations are Will De'Longhi heaters have La t month, the Agency country and is expected to be Petroleum, Inc .. of Hous ton, leaked , and manufacturers restricted the lan d disposal widely used by states and TX; Triad Petroleum. Inc., of claim that the chance of an without prior treatment of industry to save New York; A . Tarricone, Inc. oil leak is small since oil in wastes containing dioxins pollution-control costs while (A T I), of New York; and E. l. this type of heater i and solvents. ensuring continued progress Dupont DeNemours & Co .. permanently sealed in copper toward clean air. Inc . t ubing and therefore isolated The bubble allows EPA claims that the fo ur even when a heater becomes PESTICIDES managers of existing plants to parties are respons ible for hot. treat all stacks and vents as one of the largest single Fees for Registra tion though they are enclosed by leaded-gasoline blending a giant bubble and control operations in the United HAZARDOUS WASTE EPA is proposing to charge less where control costs are States. According to the pesticide manufacturers fees high , in exchange fo r extra, Agency, they produced over Land Disposal Restrictions ranging fr om $600 to 800 million gall ons of leaded $163,000 fo r the registration compensating emi ssion EPA has proposed to restrict gasoline. of their products. These fees reductions where control the land disposal in w ill cover some of the costs costs are relati vely low, so hazardous waste fo c i l ities of now incurred by EP/\ in long as equal or better 12 classes of hazardous review ing and registering reductions are ach ieved at TOXICS substances, starting in July pesticides. the top of that bubble. 1987. The substances include Currentlv. fees for Milton Ru ssell, Assistant $1.5 Million Penalty liquid hazardous wastes establi sh i1i'g tolerances or Administrator for Policy, containing cyanides, metals. The Agency has issued an permissible pesticide residue Plan n ing and E\'aluation, polychlorinated biphenyls admin istrati ve civil levels arc the onlv federal said, "the bu bbl e offers (PCBs), corrosive wastes, and needed fl exibility, the ability com plaint and assessed a costs incurred by-companies $ 1.5 million pena lty against both liqu id and solid to respond to changing hazardous wastes containing that register or license De'Longhi American, Inc., fo r pesticide prod ucts. circumst

DECEMBER 1986 31 A\Nards and Appointments

President Jfoagon congratulates Ilo1vord Messner (l eft] ond John ,\loom. The two EPA Assistont A.Jminislrotors received the Presicfonl in/ Hank Ot1'Cl rd. Disting uished Execuli\·e rn nk. for exte nded exceplionnl serl'ice 1rith tlw Fndernl go1·ernnie11 t.

Three at EPA National Toxicology Program of the Department of Health and Human Receive Presidential Servi ces. Awards Chuck Elkins has been with the Federal government for 20 years and very year. a number of c:nrcer Senior helped establish EP1\ in 1970. Positions EExecutive Service (SES) employees have included Acting Assistant aw selected to receive the Presidential Administrator for Air and Radiation on Rank award for extended except ional two occasions, l\cting 1\ ssistant service with the Federal government. Administrator for Hazardous Materia ls The /\gcnc:y is proud to announce th ut Contro l. Director of the Noise Contro l among the Hl86 recipients of the Program, and Director of the Acid J

32 EPA JOURNAL Shore birds in 13rigcrnl inu. ,\ 1f. The greenhouse ejJect 11·i1J huvc o nw;or imµuct on coustul oreos (sue ston · on page 17) .

13o d: C:o1·e r: 'kiing of tlspn11. C:CJ . 11 /i of() by Michuel Philip 1\lunlll'illl . /.'o /io . inf'. Third-Class Bulk Postage and Fees Paid EPA Permit No. G-35