Food Commodities Photo WFP/Aman ur Rehman khan
Weekly Market Monitor Report
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Pakistan | 8 December 2020
HIGHLIGHTS • Weekly average retail prices update as of 3rd of December 2020 indicates overall the prices of staple cereals and non-cereals foods experienced negligible to slight fluctuations, except for a significant increase for live chicken, when compared to the previous week’s prices;
• Cereals: (wheat, wheat flour, rice Irri-6 and rice Basmati). Overall, the average retail prices of wheat decreased slightly, wheat flour increased negligibly, and rice Irri-6 increased slightly while the price of rice Basmati remained unchanged from the previous week;
• Non-cereals: overall, compared to the previous week, the average retail prices of essential non-cereals registered a significant increase for live chicken and a slight increase for eggs along with negligible increases for cooking oil, vegetable ghee and pulses (Masoor, Moong). Whereas, a slight decrease was noted for sugar along with negligible decreases for pulses (Mash, Gram) from the previous week;
• The average ToT negligibly decreased by 0.4% from the previous week. Market Monitor | Pakistan | 8 December 2020 Page 2 To monitor the impact of COVID-19 on market prices, the average retail prices1 of cereals and non-cereals essential food commodities across the country’s main markets2 in or near COVID-19 hotspots cities (Swat, Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Gujrat, Lahore, Multan, Ghotki, Sukkur, Hyderabad, Karachi and Quetta)3 were monitored and analyzed. Following are the key points noted:
Retail prices4 of cereal food Figure 1: Retail prices trends of cereal food commodities commodities (Weekly prices: 6-Feb to 3 Dec, 2020) rd On 3 of December the average 105 retail prices of wheat and wheat 95 flour were recorded at PKR 54.90 85 and PKR 49.19 per kg, respectively, 75 65 indicating a slight decrease for PKR per KG wheat (3.3%) and a negligible 55 increase for wheat flour (0.4%) when 45
35 9-Jul
compared to their prices from the 2-Jul
4-Jun
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21-May 28-May previous week. 14-May Wheat Wheat Flour Rice Irri-6 Rice Basmati Further, the prices of rice Irri-6 and rice Basmati were recorded at PKR 63.25 and PKR 93.34, respectively, indicating a slight increase for rice Irri-6 (1.1%) and no change in the price of rice Basmati from the previous week, (Figure 1). Notable increases were observed this week in the prices of wheat flour in Multan by 11% and for riceNotable Irri-6 inincreases Islamabad were (5%) observed and Karachi this week (4%). in Multan,the prices Islamabad of wheat flour and inKarachi Quetta are(2%) among and thewheat COVID in Peshawar hotspot cities.(1%).
5 Figure 2: Retail prices trends of non-cereal food commodities Retail prices of non-cereal food (Weekly prices: 6-Feb to 3 Dec, 2020) commodities 320 295 rd As of 3 of December and when 270 245 compared with prices from the 220 previous week among the essential 195 non-cereal food commodities, a 170 PKR PKR per kg/Liter 145 significant increase was noted in the 120 price of live chicken (11.7%) and a 95 70
slight increase for eggs (3%) along
2-Jul 9-Jul
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21-May 28-May with negligible increases for cooking 14-May oil (0.5%), pulse Masoor (0.5%), Sugar Vegetable Ghee (Tin) Cooking Oil (Tin) vegetable ghee (0.4%) and pulse Live Chicken (Farm) Pulse Masoor Pulse Moong Moong (0.1%). Whereas, a slight Pulse Mash Pulse Gram Eggs
1 Latest available weekly average retail prices of essential food commodities updated on 3rd of December 2020. 2 Markets in following cities: Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan, Quetta, Sukkur, and Karachi. 3 List of COVID-19 hotspot cities updated on 29 September 2020. 4 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan. 5 Ibid.
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Market Monitor | Pakistan | 8 December 2020 Page 3 decrease was noted in the price of sugar (7.4%) along with negligible decreases for pulses Mash (0.1%) and Gram (0.1%) when compared to their prices from the previous week, (Figure 2).
Notable increases in the prices of non-cereals food in the week of 3rd of December compared to the previous week were observed for live chicken in Sukkur and Quetta by 18% and Multan (15%) and increases in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, Karachi and Peshawar by 4% to 13%. Further, notable increase was recorded in the price of eggs in Quetta by 6% and increases in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan, Sukkur, Karachi and Peshawar by 1% to 4%. Increases were also noted in the prices of pulse Masoor in Quetta (6%) and Rawalpindi (4%) and pulse Moong in Quetta (2%) together with increases for vegetable ghee in Karachi (4%) and cooking oil in Karachi and Quetta by 2% each. Out of these, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan, Sukkur, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta are among the COVID hotspot cities.
Terms-of-Trade (ToT)6 On 3rd of December, the average ToT was recorded at 17.87 kg of wheat flour. The ToT negligibly decreased by 0.4% from the previous week, mainly due to a negligible increase in the price of wheat flour, (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Casual labor/Wheat flour Terms of Trade (6-Feb to 3 Dec, 2020) 60 25
50 20 40 15 30 10 20
10 5 TOT (kgs)
0 0
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Price wheat of flour (PKR/kg)
26-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov
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14-May 21-May 28-May TOT Wheat flour Price PKR
Note: Lately, an anomaly was observed in the price difference between wheat and wheat flour prices as in few cities the prices of wheat flour were found lower than the prices of wheat. The possible reasons for this anomaly were explored with relevant sources. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), which is the source for the prices we quote in this bulletin, has informed that the difference between wheat and wheat flour prices exists due to the reason that, wheat prices are collected from open market, whereas wheat flour prices are collected which are subsidized by the Government of Pakistan.
6 The ratio of the price of the primary income good relative to the price of the primary expenditure good, it simply measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood group. In this Bulletin, the Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual unskilled labor wage and wheat flour is applied. This ToT reveals how many kilograms of wheat flour can be purchased with one-day casual unskilled labor wage but does not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.
WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis