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Food Commodities Photo WFP/Aman ur Rehman khan

Weekly Market Monitor Report

WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis | 23 June 2020

HIGHLIGHTS • Weekly average retail prices update as of 18th of June 2020 indicates overall the prices of staple cereals and non-cereals foods experienced negligible to slight fluctuations when compared to the previous week’s prices;

• Cereals: (wheat, wheat flour, rice Irri-6 and rice Basmati). Overall, the average retail prices of wheat and wheat flour both increased slightly, while the price of rice Irri-6 remained unchanged the price of rice Basmati increased negligibly when compared to the previous week;

• Non-cereals: overall, the average retail prices of essential non-cereals registered slight increases in the prices of live chicken, eggs and pulse Masoor, while a slight decrease was observed in the price of pulse Moong compared to the previous week. Whereas, negligible decreases were noted in the prices of sugar and pulses (Mash, Gram) when compared to their prices from the previous week;

• The average ToT slightly decreased by 5.5% when compared to the previous week. Market Monitor | Pakistan | 23 June 2020 Page 2

To monitor the impact of COVID-19 on market prices, the average retail prices1 of cereals and non-cereals essential food commodities across the country’s main markets2 in or near COVID- 19 hotspots cities (, , , , , , , , , Sukkur, and ) were monitored and analyzed. Following are the key points noted:

3 Retail prices of cereal food Figure 1: Retail prices trends of cereal food commodities commodities (Weekly prices: 6-Feb to 18-June, 2020) On 18th of June the average retail prices 95 90 85 of wheat and wheat flour were 80 75 recorded at PKR 45.86 and PKR 53.40 70 65 60 per kg, respectively, indicating slight 55

PKR PKR per KG 50 increases in the prices of wheat (5.1%) 45 40

and wheat flour (5.8%) from the 35

4-Jun 9-Apr

previous week. 2-Apr

6-Feb

5-Mar

7-May

11-Jun 18-Jun

16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr

27-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb

19-Mar 12-Mar 26-Mar

14-May 21-May 28-May Further, the prices of rice Irri-6 and rice Wheat Wheat Flour Rice Irri-6 Rice Basmati Basmati were recorded at PKR 61.96 and PKR 91.10, respectively, indicating no change in the price of rice Irri-6 and a negligible increase in the price of rice Basmati (0.13%) from the previous week, (Figure 1). Notable increases were observed in the price of wheat in (13%), Peshawar (13%), Islamabad (5%), Rawalpindi (5%), (6%), and Karachi (5%), and increases in the price of wheat flour in Peshawar (12%), Multan (11%), Rawalpindi (8%), and Lahore (8%) while in Islamabad, Sialkot, Karachi, Sukkur and Quetta from 2% to 5% this week compared to the previous week. Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Peshawar, Karachi, Sukkur and Quetta are among the COVID hotspot cities.

Retail prices4 of non-cereal food commodities Figure 2: Retail prices trends of non-cereal food commodities (Weekly prices: 6-Feb to 18-June, 2020) th As of 18 of June and when compared 320 295 with prices from the previous week 270 245 among the essential non-cereal food 220 195 commodities slight increases were 170 145 observed in the prices of live chicken 120 (5.5%), eggs (4.2%) and pulse Masoor 95 PKR per kg/Liter per PKR 70

(1.3%).

4-Jun

2-Apr 9-Apr

6-Feb

5-Mar

7-May

11-Jun 18-Jun

30-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr

13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb

12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar

21-May 28-May 14-May Whereas, the prices of vegetable ghee Sugar Vegetable Ghee (Tin) Cooking Oil (Tin) and cooking oil remained unchanged, a Live Chicken (Farm) Pulse Masoor Pulse Moong Pulse Mash Pulse Gram Eggs

1 Latest available weekly average retail prices of essential food commodities updated on 18 June 2020. 2 Main markets in following cities: Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan, Quetta, Sukkur, and Karachi. 3 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, . 4 Ibid.

WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Market Monitor | Pakistan | 23 June 2020 Page 3 slight decrease was observed in the price of pulse Moong (1.8%) and negligible decreases were noted in the prices of sugar (0.6%), pulse Mash (0.4%), and pulse Gram (0.1%) when compared to their prices from the previous week, (Figure 2).

Cities with notable increases in prices of non-cereals food in the week of 18th of June compared to the previous week were observed for pulse Masoor in Sialkot (11%), Quetta (3%), and for live chicken in Sukkur (10%), Peshawar (8%), Quetta (8%), Multan (7%), and in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, and Karachi from 3% to 5%. Notable increases in prices compared to the previous week were also observed for eggs in Sukkur (9%), Sialkot (9%), and in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Multan, Peshawar and Quetta from 2% to 5%. Out of these, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Peshawar, Sukkur, Lahore, Karachi and Quetta are among the COVID hotspot cities.

Terms-of-Trade (ToT)5 th On 18 of June, the average ToT was Figure 3: Casual labor/Wheat flour Terms of Trade recorded at 16.19 kg of wheat flour. (6-Feb to 18-June, 2020) The ToT slightly decreased by 5.5% 60 25 from the previous week mainly due to 50 20 a slight increase in the price of wheat 40 15 flour from previous week, (Figure 3). 30 10 20 TOT (kgs) 10 5

Price of wheat flour (PKR/kg) 0 0

4-Jun

2-Apr 9-Apr

6-Feb

5-Mar

7-May

18-Jun 11-Jun

16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr

13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb

12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar

14-May 21-May 28-May

TOT Wheat flour Price PKR

5 The ratio of the price of the primary income good relative to the price of the primary expenditure good, it simply measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood group. In this Bulletin, the Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual unskilled labor wage and wheat flour is applied. This ToT reveals how many kilograms of wheat flour can be purchased with one-day casual unskilled labor wage but does not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.

WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis