Weekly Market Monitor Report

Food Commodities Photo WFP/Aman ur Rehman khan

WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Pakistan | 29 December 2020

HIGHLIGHTS

• Weekly average retail prices update as of 24th of December 2020 indicates overall the prices of staple cereals and non-cereals foods experienced negligible to slight fluctuations when compared to the previous week’s prices;

• Cereals: (wheat, wheat flour, rice Irri-6 and rice Basmati). Overall, the average retail price of wheat flour slightly increased and the price of wheat increased negligibly, while the price of rice Irri-6 decreased negligibly along with no change in the price of rice Basmati from the previous week;

• Non-cereals: overall, compared to the previous week, the average retail prices of essential non-cereals registered a slight increase for eggs along with negligible increases for sugar, vegetable ghee and cooking oil. Whereas, slight decreases were noted in the prices of live chicken and pulse Masoor along with negligible decreases for pulses (Moong, Mash, Gram) from the previous week;

• The average ToT negligibly decreased by 0.8% from the previous week. Market Monitor | Pakistan | 29 December 2020 Page 2 To monitor the impact of COVID-19 on market prices, the average retail prices1 of cereals and non-cereals essential food commodities across the country’s main markets2 in or near COVID-19 hotspots cities (Swat, Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Gujrat, Lahore, Multan, Ghotki, Sukkur, Hyderabad, Karachi and Quetta)3 were monitored and analyzed. Following are the key points noted:

4 Retail prices of cereal food Figure 1: Retail prices trends of cereal food commodities commodities (Weekly prices: 6-Feb to 24 Dec, 2020) th On 24 of December the average 105 retail prices of wheat and wheat flour 95 were recorded at PKR 55.10 and PKR 85 75 49.35 per kg, respectively, indicating 65 a negligible increase for wheat (0.8%) PKR per KG 55 and a slight increase for wheat flour 45 35

(1.2%) when compared to their prices 9-Jul

1-Oct

2-Apr

6-Feb 3-Sep

6-Aug

23-Jul

5-Mar

11-Jun 25-Jun

15-Oct 29-Oct

16-Apr 30-Apr

20-Feb 17-Sep

10-Dec 24-Dec

20-Aug

12-Nov 26-Nov

19-Mar 28-May from the previous week. 14-May

Further, the prices of rice Irri-6 and Wheat Wheat Flour Rice Irri-6 Rice Basmati rice Basmati were recorded at PKR 63.47 and PKR 93.34, respectively, indicating a negligible decrease for rice Irri-6 (0.9%) and no change in the price of rice Basmati from the previous week, (Figure 1). Notable increases were observed this week compared to the previous week in the prices of wheat flourNotable in Peshawar increases (6 were%), Sukkur observed (2%), this Karachi week in(1 %)the and prices Quetta of wheat (1%) flourand thein Quetta prices of(2%) wheat and in Peshawarwheat in (Peshawar4%), Sialkot (1%). (4%) and Quetta (2%). Peshawar, Sukkur, Karachi, Quetta and Sialkot are among the COVID hotspot cities. Retail prices5 of non-cereal food Figure 2: Retail prices trends of non-cereal food commodities commodities (Weekly prices: 6-Feb to 24 Dec, 2020) th As of 24 of December and when 320 compared with prices from the 295 270 previous week among the essential 245 220 non-cereal food commodities, a 195 slight increase was noted in the price 170

PKR PKR per kg/Liter 145 of eggs (2.7%) along with negligible 120 95 increases for sugar (0.9%), vegetable 70

ghee (0.7%) and cooking oil (0.3%). 9-Jul

1-Oct

2-Apr

6-Feb 3-Sep

6-Aug

23-Jul

5-Mar

11-Jun 25-Jun

15-Oct 29-Oct

30-Apr 16-Apr

20-Feb 17-Sep

10-Dec 24-Dec

20-Aug

12-Nov 26-Nov

19-Mar 28-May Whereas, slight decreases were 14-May noted in the prices of live chicken Sugar Vegetable Ghee (Tin) Cooking Oil (Tin) (6.8%) and pulse Masoor (1.1%) Live Chicken (Farm) Pulse Masoor Pulse Moong along with negligible decreases in Pulse Mash Pulse Gram Eggs

1 Latest available weekly average retail prices of essential food commodities updated on 24th of December 2020. 2 Markets in following cities: Peshawar, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sialkot, Lahore, Multan, Quetta, Sukkur, and Karachi. 3 List of COVID-19 hotspot cities updated on 29th September 2020. 4 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan. 5 Ibid.

WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis Market Monitor | Pakistan | 29 December 2020 Page 3 the prices of pulses Moong (0.7%), Mash (0.3%) and Gram (0.2%) when compared to their prices from the previous week, (Figure 2).

Notable increases in the prices of non-cereals food in the week of 24th of December compared to the previous week were observed for eggs in Peshawar (6%) and Sialkot (5%) and in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi and Quetta by 2% to 3%. Further, notable increases in the prices were observed for sugar in Quetta (6%) and in Sialkot, Karachi and Peshawar by 1% to 2%. Moreover, notable increases were also observed for vegetable ghee in Multan (4%) and Quetta (2%) along with an increase for cooking oil in Sukkur (2%). Out of these, Peshawar, Sialkot, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Karachi, Quetta, Multan and Sukkur are among the COVID hotspot cities.

Terms-of-Trade (ToT)6 On 24th of December, the average ToT was recorded at 17.89 kg of wheat flour. The ToT negligibly decreased by 0.8% from the previous week, mainly due to a slight increase in the price of wheat flour, (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Casual labor/Wheat flour Terms of Trade (6-Feb to 24 Dec, 2020)

60 25

50 20

40 15 30 10 TOT (kgs) 20

10 Price of wheat flour (PKR/kg)

0 0

TOT Wheat flour Price PKR

Note: Lately, an anomaly was observed in the price difference between wheat and wheat flour prices as in few cities the prices of wheat flour were found lower than the prices of wheat. The possible reasons for this anomaly were explored with relevant sources. Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), which is the source for the prices we quote in this bulletin, has informed that the difference between wheat and wheat flour prices exists due to the reason that, wheat prices are collected from open market, whereas wheat flour prices are collected which are subsidized by the Government of Pakistan.

6 The ratio of the price of the primary income good relative to the price of the primary expenditure good, it simply measures the purchasing power of a particular livelihood group. In this Bulletin, the Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual unskilled labor wage and wheat flour is applied. This ToT reveals how many kilograms of wheat flour can be purchased with one-day casual unskilled labor wage but does not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.

WFP VAM | Food Security Analysis