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Home , Dzungarian Alatau, Jengish Chokusu, K2, Pamir Mountains

ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES Outlook on climate change adaptation in the Central Asian

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1 This Outlook has been developed by the United Nations Disclaimer Zholdosheva, E., Rucevska, I., Semernya, L., Dairov, I., Environment Programme (UN Environment) in the context of The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the Kozhakhmetov, P., Barieva, A., Maskaev, A., Mitrofanenko, T., the inter-regional project “Climate change action in developing views or policies of UN Environment, donor organizations or Alekseeva, N., 2017. Outlook on climate change adaptation in the countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional any governmental authority or institution with which authors or Central Asian Mountains. Mountain Adaptation Outlook Series. UN perspective” that is financially co-supported by the Austrian contributors are affiliated and neither do they imply any endorsement. Environment, GRID-Arendal, RMCCA. Nairobi, Vienna, Arendal, Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Bishkek. www.unep.org, www.grida.no. Management (BMLFUW). While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this publication are factually correct and properly referenced, Title in Russian: Адаптация к изменению климата в горных This Outlook builds on the main findings and results available UN Environment does not bear any responsibility for the accuracy районах Центральной Азии through conducted projects and is based on available literature or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for any loss and latest national and regional documents, such as national or damage that may be occasioned through the use of the contents Maps and graphics: Manana Kurtubadze communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on of this publication. Climate Change (UNFCCC). It is based on the review of existing Photo credits: 1 iStock/MisoKnitl; 5 iStock/AlexBrylov; 6 iStock/ literature and information received during consultations in , The designations employed and the presentation of material in this Олег Елагин; 7 iStock/Knighterrant; 12 iStock/cartela 13 iStock/ , 2–3 September 2015, and 19-20 December 2016 with publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on AL-Travelpicture; 15 iStock/Anorthco; 16 iStock/MisoKnitl the involvement of designated governmental experts from the the part of UN Environment or the donor organizations concerning Central countries and representatives of the international the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or Front cover photo: Fedchenko , organisations. concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Back cover photo: Tajikistan

The Outlook has also been supported by the Interstate Commission Mention of a commercial company or product in this publication on Sustainable Development (ICSD) through its Decision 6, April does not imply endorsement by UN Environment. 2014, , Tajikistan; Decision 7, June 2015, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan; Decision 2, May 2016, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in UNEP promotes any form for educational or non-profit services without special environmentally sound practices permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UN Environment would appreciate receiving globally and in its own activities. This a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. publication is printed on fully recycled paper, FSC certified, post-consumer waste and chlorine- We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made. free. Inks are vegetable-based and coatings are water- based. UNEP’s distribution policy aims to reduce its 2 carbon footprint. Foreword

The five states of are already being hit by Take the Vanj Valley. It‘s a remote, mountainous and areas, like flood defences, have not yet been successful climate change. Kazakhstan, , Tajikistan, sparsely populated in the Western Pamir of because of difficulties in engaging local communities. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are experiencing Tajikistan. At 1,500–2,500 metres above sea level, local One of the lessons drawn from the project is that the detrimental changes in water distribution, extreme people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and topic of climate change needs to be carefully introduced weather, natural hazards, and unique mountain forests for clean water and protection against erosion, and differentiated from non-climate risks. Otherwise it biodiversity. This report highlights the risks to the flooding and mudflows. As temperatures increase so can distract people from existing problems or overload region’s security and economy and recommends do the risks from glacier melt, dam bursts and drought, them with too many complex issues. practical ways to increase resilience using ecosystem- which can damage infrastructure and those vital forests. based adaptation measures. But Tajikistan has yet to develop a climate strategy and That’s just one of many such examples, because this in such areas, limited access to services and institutional report is part of the Mountain Adaptation Outlook Mountain ecosystems enrich the lives of over half the structures makes it difficult to adapt to change. series for Central Asia, Eastern , Southern world’s population. They provide essential goods and , (tropical) and Western . The services like water, energy and agriculture. However, The practical advice in this report is designed to help collection provides a unique and practical companion rising temperatures and changing weather patterns with exactly that kind of situation. For example, joint for local, regional and national policy makers seeking affect forests, grasslands and lakes. Pollution from forest and ecosystem management is making the Vanj to protect fragile mountain ecosystems and the people mining and agriculture erode their ability to cope with Valley more resilient to climate change and providing who depend on them. the changes. Dependent populations are increasingly more sustainable natural resources to support susceptible to the resulting damage, especially when livelihoods. A local NGO, CAMP Tabiat, and the The broad assessments by governments and experts they are isolated from other markets and services. German Corporation for International Development are invaluable, but I would particularly like to thank Yet, despite such particular vulnerability to climate are working with government, scientists and the GRID-Arendal and the Government of Austria for their change, mountain areas rarely receive appropriate local community to protect and restore forests. They additional support in bringing the reports to life. I hope attention from policy makers. are using drought-resistant crops, microfinance and the resulting benefits for people in the mountains of annual planning to manage the forests. Efforts in other Central Asia will show how worthwhile an effort this is.

Erik Solheim H.E. Andrä Rupprechter Executive Director Austrian Federal Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, UN Environment Environment and Water Management

3 L WEST SIBERIAN PLAIN Tom Physical map of Central Asia Omsk Novokuznetsk Ufa Chelyabinsk VOLGA A Petropavlovsk 1640 Barnaul UPLAND Samara R ) Belaya im h Biya RUSSIAN Kostanay Is ( Lake

l U i Katun Saratov FEDERATION s Seletyteniz e Pavlodar Volga Y Orenburg Tobol Irtysh 4506 Oral TURGAY Astana Saryarka Oskemen I Semey A PLATEAU KAZAKH T Aktobe Lake A L Tengiz Karaghanda R ra - Irtysh A Nura Lake a K

H Zaysan Emba Z Turgay 1566 Ayagoz D Sarysu CASPIAN 1133

O TARBAGATAI 657 2992 DEPRESSION Emba G UPLANDS Atyrau U Lake Astrakhan M Zhezkazgan Balkhash Balkhash Lake Aral TURAN Alakol -28 KAZAKHSTAN Baikonur Taldykorgan 4622 Aralkum Ili S y Kyzylorda Chu Kapchagay Ili Desert r D a Reservoir ry Aktau a -132 Zhanaozen Moinkum N I Almaty USTYURT L Tuyuksu Talas I A - T O O -TOO A L A ALA O Derbent EI -TO NG LA H Lake U A Kuqa Bishkek K Karakol Y CASPIAN Lake Issyk-Kul E S 7439 Sarygamysh Kyzylkum Shymkent Talas SK Nukus O O N E R SEA TA L A S A L A - T E T (Pobeda) Uchkuduk L I KYRGYZSTAN Tarim PLATEAU A AZERBAIJAN Kara- Chardara T K Toktogul Aksu Dashoguz Urganch Desert T F E Naryn Taklamakan R aryn Kur Bogaz-Gol Reservoir Chirchik A Jalalabad N Desert a H G 4893 -81 C A FERGANAKara Dary N Toshkan UZBEKISTAN Tashkent a A Baku Turkmenbashi LOWLAND S VALLEY Land elevation and y A Lake r r Sea depth in metres ga D Ferghana sh m Y Ka Aydarkul a TURKMENISTAN u r Abramov A Bukhara ya 5,000 D Zerafshan L Glacier Balkanabat Karakum a 5544 7134 Avicenna (Lenin) 4,000 ry Samarkand A Tuyuksu a 4643 7495 Fedchenko 7649 Kongur 3,000 Desert Ismoil d Salt lake K OD PAE GT Medvezhiy n 2,000 Turkmenabat GISSARFaizobod Somoni Tag a Karshi Murghab k r 1,000 Ashgabat Dushanbe Khoviling PAMIR a Desert Nurek Y 500 Rasht Atrek TAJIKISTAN Res. Khorog 200 Saryarka Tejen Qurghonteppa 0 Steppe and lakes, Gorgan Mary Murghab Javshangoz K A R A K O R U M 3117 - 100 designated as a Ishkashim - 500 world heritage site by UNESCO Mazar-e-Sharif H 7885 8611 - 700 Tehran S 0 100 km Neyshabur U - 1,000 IRAN Mashhad K

AFGANISTAN U Indus D 7134 Avicenna Peak, m N I -132 Depression, m Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016. H INDIA

4 Executive Summary

Central Asia comprises a vast area stretching from to climate change, which manifests in a rising annual Global climate change influences and water the Western Siberian lowlands to the and average temperature. Such raise in temperature will resources in the region’s mountain areas. It presents an Pamir mountain ranges and from the Altai to the have a mainly negative impact on the region. acute and urgent need to research and analyse the impact . Its topography is characterised by vast of climate change on humans, ecosystems and economies deserts and mountainous . In total, 20 per cent According to the research conducted by the World of countries in the region, and to consider what climate of the approximately four million square kilometres Bank in 2009 in 28 countries in , the Caucasus change related policies these countries should adopt. that make up Central Asia is covered by mountains. and Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have the Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are mountainous countries, highest degree of vulnerability to climate change. with more than 90 per cent of their respective territories This is an alarming trend, highlighting the particular covered by mountains. The mountainous regions of vulnerability of the mountain ecosystems of Central Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan make up Asia to climate change in comparison to other between 5 and 20 per cent of their total territories. mountainous regions of the Eurasian .

The region’s location in the centre of the Eurasian National and regional research conducted in Central landmass, far from humid ocean currents, determines its Asia suggests that the region is experiencing an arid climate and results in a rich diversity of landscapes, overall warming in climate, with a 0.5°C increase with more than twenty different ecosystems. Because in the annual average temperature over the past 30 of these specific features, the countries of Central Asia years. Precipitation records show greater disparities – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan than temperature data, with significant variations and Uzbekistan – are among those most vulnerable across the region, including in mountainousObserved areas. climate change and scenarios for Central Asia

Observed climate change and scenarios for Central Asia Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Observed Scenarios Temperature Temperature Extreme temperature (+)

ExtremePrecipitation temperature (+)

Extreme precipitation Precipitation Increasing trend Decreasing trend Mixed trend No data

Sources : National Communications:Extreme 3rd-6th of Kazakhstan, 2013; 2nd of Kyrgyzstan, precipitation 2009; 3rd of Tajikistan, 2014; 3rd of Turkmenistan, 2015; 2nd of Uzbekistan, 2008. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016. Moraine glacial lake, Kyrgyzstan

Increasing trend Decreasing trend Mixed trend No data 5

Sources : National Communications: 3rd-6th of Kazakhstan, 2013; 2nd of Kyrgyzstan, 2009; 3rd of Tajikistan, 2014; 3rd of Turkmenistan, 2015; 2nd of Uzbekistan, 2008. Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016. Purpose and methodology of the Outlook academic literature as well as on consultations with from various sectors. It seeks to encourage cross- various governmental and non-governmental experts sectoral dialogue on climate change adaptation. The Outlook focuses on the impacts of climate from the Central Asian region and beyond. It identifies change on people, ecosystems and the economies gaps and concrete needs in terms of climate change The Outlook is the result of an extensive assessment of the Central Asian countries and proposes that adaptation and provides a set of recommendations for process which included surveys and a broad literature a development of climate change policies in these concrete policy action. review encompassing latest research and existing countries is essential. The Outlook synthesizes the policy documents on the impact of climate change in existing information on current trends and challenges The Outlook is intended for a broad audience of Central Asia. The assessment was based on a ranking of in terms of climate change adaptation in mountain experts and specialists, civil society representatives current climate vulnerability and the potential impact regions of Central Asia, based on the most recent and donor organisations as well as decision-makers of natural disasters (e.g. drought, flooding), which

Potential and current hydropower production and current GWh energy demand 1,000,000

900,000 Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 800,000 Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan 700,000 Tajikistan

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000 No data for Turkmenistan 100,000 and Uzbekistan

0 Potential Energy Power generation hydroresource consumption by HPP

Sources : State statistical services of Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan; www.cawater-info.net; www.effectenergy.eu; www.indexmundi.com; www.kegoc.kz; www.tajhydro.tj; UNDP 2011; Yasinskiy et al., 2013. , Tajikistan Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.

6 could impede sustainable development, in particular when combating poverty, developing infrastructure, energy and agriculture and ensuring food security. The Outlook was discussed at two regional consultation meetings held in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in 2015 and 2016. The development of the Outlook was reviewed and acknowledged by the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development (ICSD).

The Outlook is one of the outcomes of the “Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a sub-regional perspective” project, which is being implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) with support from the Government of Austria. This project seeks to support mountainous countries in five sub-regions (Central Asia, East Africa, South Caucasus, Tropical Andes and Western Balkans) to integrate climate change adaptation issues into their development strategies, plans and programmes. The partners of UN Environment in preparing the Outlook for Central Asia were: Regional Mountain Centre for Central Asia (RMCCA) and GRID-Arendal.

Annual freshwater withdrawal by sectors in 2013 4% 3% 5% 3% 7% 3% 4% 4% 3% 30%

66% 93% 91% 94% 90%

Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Agriculture Industry Domestic Source: www.data.worldbank.org Kyrgyzstan Graph by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.

7 Key findings of the Outlook

Consequences of climate change activity in mountain regions, resulting in changes in ecosystems as ‘water towers’ in Central Asia is growing, pasture and crop rotation practices. particularly in the context of climate change. However, One of the consequences of climate change is that the decline in glacial and reserves is also taking ecosystem zones (forests, pastures, etc.) move The increase in temperature and changes of precipitation its toll on the accessibility of water resources which are vertically upwards in mountainous regions. At the patterns lead to changes in the hydrological regime and essential to energy production and agriculture. This same time, there is displacement, and changes in a reduction in water resources. The projected reduction significantly impacts not only mountain communities composition, abundance and distribution of animal in water resources is aggravated by rising demand due but also the ones downstream, on the plains - in the and plant species, which can impact agricultural to population growth. The importance of mountain steppe semi-desert and desert areas.

Current and projected data for the rivers and Syr Darya Average flow Average water demand and unmet demand Inflow in 2001-2050

m³/sec Syr Darya mln m³ Syr Darya Basin m³/sec Toktogul Reservoir, Syr Darya Basin 7,000 70,000 700 2001-2010 Annual water demand 6,000 60,000 600 2014-2050 Annual unmet demand 5,000 50,000 500 4,000 40,000 400 3,000 30,000 300 2,000 20,000 200 1,000 10,000 100 0 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001-2010 2041-2050 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Base flow Glacier melt Snow melt Rain

m³/sec Amu Darya mln m³ Amu Darya Basin m³/sec Nurek Reservoir, Amu Darya Basin 7,000 70,000 700 2001-2010 Annual water demand 6,000 60,000 600 2014-2050 Annual unmet demand 5,000 50,000 500 4,000 40,000 400 3,000 30,000 300 2,000 20,000 200 1,000 10,000 100 0 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2001-2010 2041-2050 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Source : Asian Development Bank, 2014. Graphs by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.

8 Ecoregions of Central Asia

5 Petropavlovsk

Kustanau Lake Irtysh Seletyteniz

Tobol Oral 5 Ishim 4 Pavlodar Astana 5 Aktobe Lake Oskemen 10 4 Tengiz Lake Zaysan Karaghandy 2 Ural 2 3 Emba 10 Atyrau KAZAKHSTAN Lake 2 Balkhash Lake ARAL SEA Alakol 9 1 7 4 Aktau 1 Kyzyl Orda Kapchagay 7 Reservoir Almaty Syr Dar 4 9 8 CASPIAN 7 7 SEA Nukus ya Shymkent 8 Bishkek Karakol UZBEKISTAN Lake Kara- Talas Bogaz-Gol Dashoguz 4 Issyk-Kul Urganch 9 9 Lake KYRGYZSTAN Turkmenbashi 1 Desert Sarygamysh Tashkent Amu Dar Jalalabad Ferghana 2 Semidesert 6 Lake TURKMENISTAN Osh Bukhara Aydarkul 4 Kokand 3 Semidesert and steppe Balkanabat ya 1 4 Steppe 6 Samarkand 2 Turkmenabat 11 5 Forest steppe Ashgabat 12 Karshi Dushanbe 6 Forest steppe and woodland Mary 7 TAJIKISTAN Kurgan-Tyube 11 7 Woodland Khorog 0 200 km 8 Conifer forest P j 2 a n 9 Montane steppe and meadow 10 Alpine meadow and tundra 11 Alpine desert and tundra 12 Glacier Source: Central Asia Atlas of Natural Resources, ADB, 2010. Salt lake Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.

9 populations, and have demonstrated commitment at the national level to address global climate Projected impact of climate change in key sectors of Central Asia Projected impact of climate change in key sectors of Central Asia across different global warming levels* change. All five countries are members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change * (≈2010s) (≈2030s) (≈2040s) (≈2060s) (≈2080s) across different global warming levels 1°C 1.5°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C (UNFCCC), they have ratified the Kyoto Protocol Heat and have signed the Paris Agreement.1°C The latter, (≈2010s) 1.5°C (≈2030s) 2°C (≈2040s) 3°C (≈2060s) 4°C (≈2080s) 5°C Land area affected 15% 30% 70% 80% extremes however, has only been ratified and entered into force in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Central Asian glacier massHeat loss Climate change is also a priority in the context Glaciers 31% of Tien Shan Land area affected 15% 30% 70% 80% glaciers mass loss 31-66%extremes54-57% 50-78% of other international legal mechanisms, such as

41% drop in annual runoff the Convention on Biological Diversity and the in Central Asia Discharge reduction and runoff Convention to Combat Desertification, to which the Water decline in Central Asia Central Asian glacier mass loss 30-60 days peak shifts* countries of Central Asia are parties. The majority of in Syr Darya basinGlaciers countries have undertaken commitments to mitigate 31% of Tien Shan Desertification threatens wheat yields the consequences of climate change and adapt to glaciers mass loss 31-66% 54-57% 50-78% 20-57% yield in Kazakhstan them through the Intended Nationally Determined Food loss in Uzbekistan 41% drop in annual runoff Heat stress threatens wheat 30% yield loss Contributions (INDC) they have submitted to yields in Kazakhstan in Tajikistan the UNFCCC. in Central Asia Discharge reduction and runoff decline in Central Asia Tenfold increase inWater mudflow risk Health in Kazakhstan At the regional level, three Central Asian countries 30-60 days peak shifts* with alpine ecosystems – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan in Syr Darya basin and Tajikistan – adopted the Bishkek Mountain Energy 2.58% increase in hydropower potential in Central Asia Platform at the Bishkek Global Mountain Desertification threatens wheat yields in 2002. The Platform provides a framework for in Kazakhstan Source : Reyer et al., 2015. 20-57% yield * Warming levels are relative to pre-industrial temperatures. further action towards strengthened management ** From the current spring/early summer towards a late winter/early spring runoff regime. FoodTable by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016. loss in Uzbekistan of mountain regions and creates an environment for Heat stress threatens wheat 30% yield loss resolving climate change related problems. yields in Kazakhstan in Tajikistan In addition, all five Central Asian countries are agroforestry, which may become more feasible in experiencing an increased number of extreme certain areas due to shifts in climate zones or changes The pivotal moment was, however, the 2009 Summit Tenfold increase in mudflow risk weather events and natural disasters affecting human in amount of precipitation. Climate change can of the International Fund for saving the Aral Sea in Kazakhstan safety and national economies. Every year these also play aHealth catalysing role for the development of (IFAS). This is when the importance of climate change disasters inflict significant damage on settlements, adaptation practices designed towards more effective issues was recognized at the regional level. Prior to agricultural land and infrastructure. use of natural resources and improved management 2010 the main focus of IFAS and its subsidiary bodies practices in various spheres of human activity. (the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination 2.58% increase in hydropower Opportunities associated with climate Energy[ICWC] and ICSD) was the use of water resources change Dealing with climate change at the and environmental protection without taking into potential in Central Asia political level account climate change issues. Today in Central Asia, This Outlook* recognizesWarming that in some cases climate levelsthe negativeare consequences of climaterelative change have to pre-industrial temperatures. Source : Reyer et al., 2015. change also** creates newFrom opportunities in certain The countriesthe of Central Asia currenthave recognised climate been recognised to affectspring/early the water sector, agriculture, summer towards a late winter/early spring runoff regime. Table by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016. economic sectors. One of the few examples is change as a significant threat to ecosystems and human health, the health of natural ecosystems,

10 Impact of climate change on wheat productivity Petropavlovsk at different sites in Central Asia Kostanay Lake Seletyteniz Tobol Irtysh Ishim Vozdvijhenka Agro-ecological zones Sites Lake Astana Arid Rainfed Tengiz Ural Semi-arid Rainfed and irrigated Turgay Lake Sub-humid Irrigated KAZAKHSTAN Zaysan No data Salt lake ARAL SEA Note: The names of sites (experimental stations) do not correspond to the names of settlements. S y KyrNIIZ - the experimental station of Kyrgyz r D Research Institute of Crop Husbandry; ar ya Shieli Kapchagay Uchkhoz - the experimental station of the Kyrgyz Reservoir Agrarian Academy. CASPIAN Zhany-Pakhta SEA UZBEKISTAN Daniyar Bishkek Uchkhoz Kara- KyrNIIZ Lake Bogaz-Gol Khorezm Issyk-Kul Lake Akkavak KYRGYZSTAN Sarygamysh Lake Amu Dar Aydarkul Tashkent Average temperature Change of Akaltyn Kushmanata Kuva during vegetative growth wheat yield TURKMENISTAN Spitamen 0 200 km ya for four periods (t°C) (%) Shahristan Ashgabat Dushanbe Faizabad H Historic, 1961-1990 4% I Immediate future, 2011-2040 Khorasan TAJIKISTAN Bakht M Miedium-term future, 2041-2070 L Long-term future, 2071-2100 27% 26% 25% 24.3 24% 24 22.7 22.9 21.2 22.3 21.6 22% 20.9 19.8 20.8 19.9 19 18%

15% 14% 14% 12.8 11.6 11.7 11.3 11.2 10.3 10.1 10.5 10.7 9.3 10 10.2 10% 9.2 9.1 9.7 10 10% 8.5 8.7 8.1 8.4 8.9 8.6 9 9% 8.9 7.7 7.6 8 8.5 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.1 7.1 7.8 8.1 7 7.1 6.5 6.5 6.9 6.7 7.2 5.9 6.3 6.2 6.4 5.2 5.1 6 5.6 5.6 4.7 4.9 4.9 5% 5% 4.5 4.4 4% 3.7 2.9 2.9 2.2 1% 0% H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L H I M L KyrNIIZ Zhany-Pakhta Uchkhoz Daniyar Khorasan Bakht Spitamen Shahristan Faizabad Kushmanata Akkavak Akaltyn Kuva Khorezm Shieli Petropavlovsk Vozdvizhenka Kostanay -3% KYRGYZSTAN TAJIKISTAN UZBEKISTAN KAZAKHSTAN

Sources : Bobojanov et al., 2014; Sommer et al., 2012, 2013. Map by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.

11 energy, transport and disaster risk management. Some countries in the region are attempting to Some animal species areas in Central Asia included in the IUCN Red List However, over the last decade, increasing priority develop sectoral programmes and action plans has been given to mitigation measures of climate to mitigate and adapt to climate change. The change. This thematic focus continues to be reflected implementation of such programmes and plans in the greater number of realised mitigation projects however, remains at an early stage. Specific strategies

KAZAKHSTAN compared to adaptation initiatives. and programmes with concrete recommendations and practical measures for adaptation have emerged Panthera uncia Challenges at the institutional level only in the last few years. However, they still face the Endangered UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN problem of integration into national and sectoral TURKMENISTAN Adaptation to climate change is not only of concern to development programmes. TAJIKISTAN Extant Probably Extant ecologists, it touches upon all aspects of human activity and will therefore have an impact on every economic Moreover, some Central Asian countries do not sector in the region. This report highlights the close have effective cross-sectoral coordinating bodies interrelationship between ecosystems and sectors of the to provide general guiding principles for policy, KAZAKHSTAN economy (energy, agriculture, mining, tourism) which determine the priority areas for action, allocate Ovis ammon are vulnerable to climate change, as well as health issues sufficient resources and monitor the coordinated Near Threatened in the context of the impact of climate change. and systematic implementation of policies,

UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN

KAZAKHSTAN Capra sibirica Least concern UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN

Tolai hare KAZAKHSTAN Lepus tolai Least concern

UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN Altai marmot TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN Marmota baibacina Least concern

Source : IUCN Red List. Grape field in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan Maps by Manana Kurtubadze, GRID-Arendal, 2016.

12 programmes and investment as part of climate in development matters. Another important issue The report also points out the inadequate attention change adaptation and mitigation work. Moreover, identified in the Outlook is the lack of specialised paid by governments to supporting rural populations the low coordination and synergy between existing climate change laws in environmental legislation and in adapting to climate change. Rural communities institutional structures pose a serious challenge for the failure of bylaws to cover climate change issues, need new methods, technologies and investment national and regional cooperation in the area of particularly those concerning adaptation. to have access to agricultural crops suited to local climate change adaptation. conditions and capable of increasing returns even Challenges for climate change when water supply is less dependable and consistent. Although climate change issues concern a wide adaptation at the local level In addition, mechanisms for crop insurance are range of relevant ministries and agencies of the needed to protect farmers from the devastating Central Asian countries, decisions on climate change This Outlook reveals a low level of awareness among economic losses caused by adverse climate conditions. adaptation and mitigation most often fall under local communities and farmers with regards to both the remit and responsibility of state environmental climate change and adaptation. Awareness raising The main burden of maintaining households in rural protection authorities. Taking into account the initiatives often prove insufficient to convey fully areas most often falls on women. This is due to the limited influence that these authorities have on to rural communities the significance of climate outmigration of the working population, primarily overall development policy compared with other change issues and the need to introduce agricultural men, in order to earn money in other cities and state bodies, climate change issues do not receive practices which are better adapted to a changing countries. Consequently, rural women in the region sufficient attention from decision-makers involved climate, particularly in mountain regions. have to take on an active role as smallholder farmers. This role helps to ensure food security for their households. As a rule, however, these women do not have the right to a voice in the decision-making process. At this point, it is essential to recognise, support and increase women’s role in decision- making, and include them when defining the priorities for agricultural research and development.

Challenges with monitoring, data collection and scientific research

A substantial amount of information about the environment is being collected in Central Asian countries. Nevertheless, there is no single, coordinated database to facilitate access to accurate environmental data, particularly on the impact of climate change in mountain ecosystems. The Outlook also notes the lack of extensive scientific research and monitoring of surface and ground water, or the impact of climate change on water management and agriculture. This speaks to the need to develop tools Hissar Range, Uzbekistan for assessing climate change vulnerability, with a focus on evaluating economic losses.

13 Recommended measures for adaptation in the mountain regions of Central Asia

The proposed recommendations aim to strengthen adaptation to climate change in various sectors of the economy and include issues related to the policy and legislation frameworks, and institutional organisation. The development and strengthening of climate change adaptation measures in both mountain and plain regions will contribute to the sustainable development of Central Asia, provided there is coordination at local, national and regional levels.

Awareness raising and Institutional framework Policy and legislation capacity building Regional level

Strengthen institutional capacity to Introduce long-term, cross-sectoral Provide access to information at the Promote a regional approach for support or create a well-functioning policies (involving civil society in its local community level and to the general climate change adaptation, coordinated structure for adaptation to climate development process), taking into public, to increase public awareness; with other environmental frameworks change, notably through consolidating account climate change trends and and development processes, including existing bodies, or creating new bodies the prevention of key risks as well as Develop measures to build capacity at the exchange of data and information, in the field of climate change and by ensure the development, integration various levels and for various partners methodologies for assessments, supporting cross-sectoral integration and proper implementation of a legal to ensure that they have the up to date climate monitoring, and coordination of climate change adaptation at the and regulatory framework related to information and research results, and of actions on the ground in Central national level; climate change adaptation; use communication tools to reach out Asian countries; to a wider audience. Establish specialized cross-sectoral Promote implementation of climate Support in particular the EbA approach bodies (for example, commissions, change adaptation policy and develop to climate change adaptation, informed working groups) that will facilitate climate change adaptation measures, by the outcomes and successes of other increased coordination of activities and with special focus on Ecosystem based relevant initiatives and projects; synergies between various institutions. Adaptation (EbA), including within mountain ecosystems, and targeting Improve the institutional capacity of the most vulnerable society groups; regional bodies on climate change adaptation issues. Develop or integrate mechanisms for policy assessments into the monitoring process (integration of targeted policies, evaluation indicators, etc.).

14 Agriculture, Alatau Mountains, Kazakhstan

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