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5.1.8-V.Aizen-Central Asia High Elevation International Geophysical Central Asia High Elevation International Geophysical (HEIG) Project, since 2015… Under auspices of UNESCO: the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP), the US, Japan, Germany, China, France, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan cooperation The HEIGE Goal Synthesize and integrate multiple disciplines to develop fundamental understanding the interaction between climate and alpine cryosphere in the high central Asia endorheic basin: the past, present and possible future variability contributed to water resources of the world largest endorheic basin. • Will climate thresholds be crossed that change the current state of water resources, and if so where, how fast, and how much? • How will local and regional changes in climate, snow cover, glaciers, and permafrost impact the regional hydrology, water quality, land degradation, bio-ecology, food production and human health? Current state of knowledge 80% information about low lands. Two third of observations discontinued after the 1991 Little knowledge about climate and cryosphere dynamics over 4000 m a.s.l., while the major snow/ice/permafrost area spread over this elevation range Vast satellite information does not fulfill the gap Need ground observations in representative for local benchmark areas for the remote sensing data calibration What has been done toward of the goals and objectives … The Central Asia study area and climatic regions 1. Kazakh Steppe (KS), 2. Aral-Caspian Desert (AD), 3. Tarim (TR), 4. Siberian Altai-Sayan (SA), 5. Mongolian (MA) Altai, 6. Western Tien Shan (WT), 7. Northern Tien Shan (NT), 8. Issyk Kul (IK), 9. Inner Tien Shan IT), 10. Eastern Tien Shan (ET), 11. Central Tien Shan (CT), 12. Western Pamir (WP), 13. Pamiro-Alai (PA), 14. Central Pamir (CP), 15. Eastern Pamir (EP) Central Asia meteo-stations 412 meteorological stations located at elevation rage between -25 m below sea level to 4169 m asl, between Mongolia and Caspian Sea, and between south Siberia and Tibetan Plateau. The 70 years period divided for two periods for the climate acceleration assessment: before 1975/76 and after 1976. All data has checked for random errors. Number stations in operation Area and number of stations by elevations Difference in long term normal air temperature between two periods: 1940 - 1976 and 1977 – 2011. The annual mean air temperatures increases +0.65°C and +0.9°C in the summer, particularly at the Aral Sea and Balkhash Lake areas. The lowest difference is in the mountains above 3000 m Winter Spring Summer Autumn Difference of long-term standard Difference of long-term standard deviation of winter air deviation of summer air temperature between 1951 - 1976 temperature between 1951 - and 1977 – 2010 1976 and 1977 – 2010 Difference of long-term standard deviation of annual air temperature between 1951 - 1976 and 1977 – 2010 in different elevation ranges Difference in long term normal precipitation between two periods: 1940 - 1976 and 1977 – 2011 Annual precipitation increased in the peripheral regions of central Asia, while summer precipitation decreased; particularly in Tien Shan Winter Spring Summer Autumn Difference of long-term standard Difference of long-term standard deviation of winter precipitation deviation of summer precipitation between 1951 - 1976 and 1977 – 2010 between 1951 - 1976 and 1977 – 2010 6,056,480 km2 is annually covered by snow in Central Asia (about 45% of the total study area of 13,500,000 km2). Pamir and Tien Shan show significant decrease in trend of SCA percentage per decade above 3000 – 4000 m asl (-3.22% to -4.06%) but elevated in Altai (+2.51%). Duration of snow melt from the date of maximum snow cover to the date of it’s disappearance reduced by 30 days in Tien Shan and Pamir. Long-term mean 8-day SCAP and maximum SCAP for each climatic region Perennial snow covered area, % (PSCP) (red star shows the date for maximum SCAP, from 1975 to 2014 light blue span indicates 2 std of SCAP) Trend of SCD in different elevation ranges Trend of snow covered duration in within each climatic region different elevation ranges. There only places showing significant changes under Mann-Kendal test with significant level of 0.05 were included. Red dots indicate mean values while red lines indicate median values Siberian Altai: Wiith the glaciers larger than 0.1 km2, there were 1428 glaciers with an area of 1285 km2 in 2011 Pamir : 12 449 km2 in the 1970’s and 11 834 km2 in 2011 Tien Shan: 14 152 km2 in the 1970’s and 12 949 km2 in 2011 ~ 35% of the total glacier covered area in high mountains of Asia Glacier area changes in Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir since 1960s Two largest glacier massifs in Central Asia: in Central Pamir and Central Tien Shan 30 m Lowering of the glaciers surface, m -90-80 -80-70 -70-60 -60-50 -50-40 -40-30 -30-20 -20-10 -10-0 0-10 10-20 20-40 1133 glaciers, 2,205 km2 in 2014 3.7% area change between 1972 and 2014. -10m lowering of the glaciers surface in average (-0.2 km3) Glacier surface elevation changes in Central Pamir Changes of mean elevation of glaciers in Fedchenko Mountain Massif by sub-regions (a), area class (b), slope group (c) and aspect (d) Glacier surface elevation changes in Central Tien Shan (Inylchek glacier massif) Changes of mean elevation of glaciers in Inylchek Mountain Massif by sub- regions (a), area class (b), slope group (c) and aspect (d) The surging glaciers, Central Pamir (A) Central Pamir, KH-9, 1975, SRTM 2000) 215 glaciers with unstable dynamics 51 surging glaciers. B A (B) Medvejiy Glacier in the surging stage, aerial photography, 06.1988 – 10.1989. (C) Medvejiy Glacier (KH-9 and SRTM 2000) C Medvejiy Gl. (A) Changes of the Fedchenko Glacier tongue between 1928 and 2012. The Corona image from 1968 is shown in the background; (B) Elevation changes and elevation along the central flow line at the Fedchenko Glacier between 1928 and 2000 (2009). The surface data is derived from the maps (1928, 1958), SRTM data and GPS data from measurements in 2009. The volume loss 5 km³ over the period of 81 years relates to an initial volume of 131 km³ in 1928 (3.8%). (Marchenko et al, 2007) Grigorieva (Tien Shan) Ice Core δ18O. Takeuchi, Aizen, 0 2014 -5 O 18 -10 δ -10 -15 Severe Centennial Drought -20 -15 -15 West Belukha (Altai) Prolong Ice Core Temperature. Holocene Climate Warm -20 Aizen et al, 2016 Optimum Period -20 -25 Bølling-Allerød -25 Interstadial Younger -30 Dryas -35 Celsius degrees Temperature -40 Temperature degrees Celsius degrees Temperature GISP2 (Greenland) Ice Core -45 Temperature. Alley, R.B. 2000 20 15 10 5 0 Age - Thousands of Years Before the Present Installation of the first weather station at an altitude of 5520 m asl, Central Pamir, 2015 We plan to install 10-15 high elevation meteorological stations in Altai, Tien Shan and Pamir that will include the measurements of precipitation and snow accumulation. All stations will be combined in one satellite data transmission system and the data will be available through the GCW portal after initial analysis and standartization However, we are searching financial support for this project from international financial institutions or scientific agencies initiated through WMO and UNESCO. This data base site is in transition from Canadian commercial server to the University of Idaho This book will combine the results of our research in Asia high mountains (Altai, Tien Shan, Pamir and Tibet) completed with support of the NSF and NASA in last 15 years. Without research on cryosphere issues research we will not be able to simulate the real scenario for climate and water resources change in central Asia The dried watercourse (Uzboi) between Aral and Caspian seas developed during the Bølling/Allerød interstadial (~19-12K BP) Thank you! .
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