Drina River Basin nexus assessment - Phase II National Consultation meeting KTH – Royal Institute of Technology: Emir Fejzić Youssef Almulla Dr. Vignesh Sridharan Dr. Francesco Gardumi
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 1 Agenda
Project aim
Approach
Key questions
The river basin
HPP cascade methodology
Preliminary results
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 2 The aim of the Drina Nexus Phase II
The project aims to: • Provide a substantive background for the Drina Nexus Roadmap • Provide an analysis of Energy-water scenarios and options to formalize flow regulations. • Identify possible nexus projects and related investments
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 3 Approach
• Electricity sector expansion model developed with OSeMOSYS (cost-optimizing, open- source framework) for Phase I will be used. The model structure includes a multi-country power system. • The model calculates least-cost investments and energy balances in each of the countries (BA, ME and RS) for the 2020-2040 period. • Emphasis on the operation of hydropower in cascade as well as the effects of non-hydro RES on hydropower and flood control/environmental flows • Key questions and nexus implications of potential developments in the electricity system of the riparian countries (i.e., beyond the basin).
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 4 Key questions to be addressed in Phase II
Key questions include investigating: • Benefits an increased share of non-hydro RES bring in terms of GHG emissions reduction and reduced stress on hydro power considering the need for flood containment measures and changing RES prices o To what extent may hydro power plants provide environmental services (e.g., environmental flows and flood control), what impact does that have on their potential generation? • The role renewables (hydro and non-hydro) in the Drina basin can play in achieving the UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions.
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 5 Key questions to be addressed in Phase II
Key questions include investigating: • Effects of climate induced variability on hydropower generation • The role non-hydro RES could play if proposed plans for HPP development in the DRB were executed • Effects the Emission Trading Scheme, as part of the EU integration pathway, can have on hydro and non-hydro RES development in the riparian countries • In which way hydro and non-hydro RES can be impacted by the implementation of energy efficiency measures (demand- and supply-side)
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 6 Map of the Drina River Basin
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 7 Methodology – cascade representation
• Development of a Drina Hydro-cascade UVAC RIVER LIM RIVER PIVA RIVER representation in the model Uvac Potpeć PIVA • Power production from hydropower plants (213 MCM) (27.5 MCM) (880 MCM) within the Drina River Basin based on: Kokin Brod o Water availability (250 MCM) o Rules of operation Bistrica o Environmental flows (7.6 MCM) o Useful storage volumes and discharge rates DRINA RIVER
Višegrad (161 MCM)
Bajina Bašta (218 MCM)
Zvornik (89 MCM)
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 8 Methodology – cascade representation
• Floods and droughts controlled by River segment 1 upstream river segments and catchments • Considers water availability, HPP operational rules, environmental flows • Discharges [m3/s] for normal years Dam storage Catchment based on monthly multi-year average flows • Inputs: dam storage [MCM], monthly Spillway discharges [m3/s], spillway capacities [m3/s], water needed for power River segment 2 production [m3/kWh]
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 9 Preliminary results
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 10 Power production, imports and exports - Republic of Serbia 2020-2040
59 54 49 44 39 34 29 24 19
Power [TWh] Power supply 14 Aggregated 9 representation of 4 HPPs within the DRB -1 -6 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
HPP HPP DRB HPP DRB New HPP New TPP TPP New WPP Import Export RSDEMAND
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 11 Production by HPPs in the Drina River Basin 2020-2040
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000 Power production [GWh] production Power
500
0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Bajina Bašta HPP Zvornik HPP Uvac HPP Kokin Brod HPP Bistrica HPP Potpeć HPP
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 12 Dam storage levels examples - 2020-2040
Bajina Bašta Dam Storage Level Kokin Brod Dam Storage Level 400 300
350 250 300 200 250
200 150
150 100 Dam level million m3 Dam level Dam level millionm3 100 50 50
0 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 13 Dam storage levels examples - 2020-2040
Obtained calibrations for the period 2020-2040 for HPPs within the Drina River Basin Cascade include: • Yearly discharge of water through the turbines, i.e., water used for power production [million m3/year] • Discharge of water through the spillways [million m3/year] • Inflow to the dam storage [million m3/year] 400 • Cost of power production [million USD/year] 350 • Power production [GWh] 300 250 200 150
Dam level million m3 100 50 0 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
25/02/2021 National Consultation meeting 14 Drina River Basin nexus assessment - Phase II National Consultation meeting KTH – Royal Institute of Technology: Emir Fejzić Youssef Almulla Dr. Vignesh Sridharan Dr. Francesco Gardumi
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