MENA SVOD revenues to triple
MENA SVOD revenues will reach $2.97 billion by 2025; or $2.1 billion more than the 2019 total. SVOD revenues will triple between 2019 and 2025. Turkey will total to $908 million by 2025, with Saudi Arabia adding $563 million and Israel $470 million.
Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “We forecast 29.63 million SVOD subscriptions by 2025, up from 12.25 million recorded at end-2019. Collectively, the 13 Arabic-speaking countries will overtake Turkey’s subscriber count in 2025.”
SVOD Subscribers by operator (000) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2019 2025 Others 5,814 9,464 Icflix 219 421 Apple TV+ 0 494 Wavo 200 648 Amazon 168 1,018 Shahid Plus 574 1,332 Disney+ 0 3,021 Starz Play 1,244 3,067 Netflix 4,034 10,167
Netflix will account for 38% of the 2025 total (with its subscriber base doubling from 2019), followed by StarzPlay (23%) and Disney+ (11% despite only starting in its first Arabic country in 2022). These three platforms will generate three-quarters of the Arab total by 2025.
For more information on the Middle East and North Africa OTT TV and Video Forecasts report, please contact: Simon Murray, [email protected], Tel: +44 20 8248 5051
Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts
Table of Contents
Published in January 2020, this 182-page PDF, Powerpoint and excel report comes in three parts:
• Outlook: Regional overview and forecasts for 20 countries in a 45-page PowerPoint document full of charts, graphs and bullet points; • A 78-page Excel workbook covering each year from 2010 to 2025 for 20 countries by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues for movies and TV episodes. As well as summary tables by country and by platform; • Insight: Detailed country-by-country analysis in a 59-page PDF document.
For more information, please click here or contact [email protected]
Forecasts for the following 150 platforms across 20 countries:
Country SVOD SVOD Platforms ops Algeria 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Armenia 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+ Azerbaijan 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Megogo Bahrain 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Egypt 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Georgia 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Megogo Israel 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; HBO; Yes+; Cellcom TV; Partner; Sting TV Jordan 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Kazakhstan 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Megogo; Amediateka Kuwait 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Lebanon 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Morocco 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect Oman 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Qatar 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Saudi Arabia 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus Wavo Syria 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Tunisia 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect Turkey 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Tivibu; Turkcell; beIN Connect; blu; Vodafone TV UAE 9 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Apple TV+; Icflix; StarzPlay; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Uzbekistan 4 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Disney+; Megogo
SAMPLE: Qatar OTT TV & video insight
• OTT TV & video revenues are forecast to reach $65 million by 2025, up from $22 million in 2019. SVOD will contribute $55 million to the 2025 total, up from $17 million in 2019. There will be 449,000 SVOD subscriptions by 2025 (89% of TV households) compared with 193,000 at end-2019.
Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The OTT sector is competitive. • Smartphone penetration is very high. • Fixed broadband penetration is also high. • Piracy is a problem. • High proportion of ex-pats means strong demand for foreign content. Source: Digital TV Research
• Similar to the rest of the region, piracy is a major problem. However, the Ministry of Justice instigated a widespread anti-piracy campaign in 2012.
• Netflix launched in January 2016. We forecast 169,000 subscribers by 2025; up by 88,000 on the end-2019 total.
• Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at $5.99/month, but Amazon offers less original or local content than Netflix. We forecast 14,000 Amazon subs by 2025.
• We expect that Disney+ will start in 2022, with 46,000 subscribers forecast by 2025. Apple TV+ started in Qatar with its global rollout in November 2019, with 17,000 subscribers expected by 2025. HBO Max is not expected to start in MENA due to its deal with OSN.
• Transmitting in English, Arabic and French, StarzPlay has 6,000 hours of Hollywood content as well as 2,000 hours of Arabic content. In October 2015, Ooredoo TV signed an exclusive distribution deal with StarzPlay (QAR30/month). More Arabic content will lead to 103,000 subscribers by 2025.
• MBC’s Shahid Plus provides linear channels as well as on-demand content. We forecast 45,000 subscribers by 2025.
• Started in 2012, Icflix is the longest established SVOD platform. We forecast 18,000 subscribers by 2025. With Arabic, English and French content, Icflix provides more than 20,000 hours of content.
• OSN launched SVOD platform Wavo in August 2017. Wavo carries OSN’s movie archive and HBO content as well as 25 linear channels. OSN signed a distribution agreement with Netflix in February 2018. We expect 11,000 paying subscribers by 2025.
• beIN Connect provides access to 34 linear channels available on the satellite TV package as well as 2,000 on-demand TV episodes and 300 on-demand movies – free to satellite TV subs or $18/month to others. We forecast 17,000 paying subscribers by 2025.
• Hong Kong’s Viu started operations in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE in February 2017. Local content is included as well as international fare to appeal to ex-pats. Ooredoo Video Clips started in April 2016, providing access to 1.7 million videos in 25 languages for QAR2/day ($0.55) – in partnership with Vuclip.
• The Ooredoo TV IPTV platform (up to 190 channels, including bundles from beIN, MBC and OSN) is offered as part of a triple-play package (up to 1Gbps). We estimated 152,000 subscribers at end-2019; climbing to 161,000 by 2025. In October 2015, Ooredoo signed an exclusive distribution deal with SVOD platform StarzPlay (QAR30/month, 8,000 hours).
• Ooredoo is investing QAR1 billion on an extensive fiber network (up to 100Mbps). Ooredoo is responsible for constructing the government-owned National Broadband Network (QNBN). Ooredoo had 2.87 million mobile subscribers by September 2019.
• Vodafone won the license for the second fixed line service in April 2010. Vodafone sold its stake to a local consortium in late 2018. Vodafone started its Giga TV OTT platform in late 2019. Wavo is available. Vodafone had 5,000 fixed broadband and 1.39 million mobile subscribers by December 2018.
Qatar OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Population (000) Total households (000) TV households (000) Fixed broadband hholds (000) Smartphone subscribers (000) Tablet subscribers (000)
TV HH/Total HH Fixed broadband HH/Total HH Smartphone subs/Population Tablet subs/Population
OTT TV & video fixed broadband households (000) OTT TV & video HH/Fixed broadband HH OTT TV & video HH/TV HH
OTT TV & video smartph subs (000) OTT TV & video HH/smartph subs
OTT TV & video total (000)
Gross SVOD subscriptions (000) SVOD subs/TVHH SVOD subs/Fixed bband HH SVOD subs/Smartphone users
Net SVOD homes (000) SVOD homes/TVHH SVOD homes/Fixed bband HH SVOD subs/SVOD homes
TV rental transactions (000) Movie rental transactions (000) Total rental transactions (000) TV download-to-own trans (000) Movie DTO trans (000) Total DTO transactions (000)
Online advg total (US$ mil.)
Qatar OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
AVOD (US$ mil.) Online TV rental revs (US$ mil.) Onl movie rent revs (US$ mil.) Online rental revs (US$ mil.) DTO TV revs (US$ mil.) DTO movie revenues (US$ mil.) DTO video revenues (US$ mil.) SVOD revenues (US$ mil.) OTT TV & video revs (US$ mil.)
SVOD subscribers by operator (000) Netflix Amazon Disney+ Apple TV+ Icflix Starz Play Shahid Plus Wavo beIN Connect Others
Share of SVOD subscribers by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Disney+ Apple TV+ Icflix Starz Play Shahid Plus Wavo beIN Connect Others
SVOD revenues by operator (US$ mil.) Netflix Amazon Disney+ Apple TV+ Icflix Starz Play Shahid Plus Wavo beIN Connect Others
Qatar OTT TV & video forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Share of SVOD revenues by operator (%) Netflix Amazon Disney+ Apple TV+ Icflix Starz Play Shahid Plus Wavo beIN Connect Others
SVOD ARPU by operator ($) Netflix Amazon Disney+ Apple TV+ Icflix Starz Play Shahid Plus Wavo beIN Connect
AVOD revenues by platform ($ million) YouTube Facebook/Instagram Other social media sites FTA broadcasters Pay TV broadcasters AVOD platforms Other Source: Digital TV Research. Revenues from professionally-made TV shows and movies - so not, for example, sports or UGC.
Qatar OTT TV & video outlook
Revenues by source ($m) 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 SVOD 9 17 24 30 55 DTO 1 1 1 1 2 Rental 1 1 1 1 2 AVOD 2 3 3 4 7
Device penetration (000) 3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 Populn Total HH TV HH Fixed bb Smartph Tablet 2018 2,719 522 496 261 2,306 789 2019 2,753 528 502 275 2,351 881 2020 2,760 529 502 286 2,368 938 2021 2,767 530 504 297 2,380 982 2025 2,795 534 508 331 2,412 1,070
Qatar SVOD outlook
Subscribers by operator (000) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Others 7 8 8 8 9 beIN Connect 1 3 5 7 17 Wavo 1 5 6 7 11 Shahid Plus 16 24 29 33 45 Starz Play 37 52 63 71 103 Icflix 7 10 11 13 18 Apple TV+ 0 0 1 4 17 Disney+ 0 0 0 0 46 Amazon 2 4 6 8 14 Netflix 59 88 113 133 169
Revenues by operator ($m) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2025 Others 0 0 0 1 1 beIN Connect 0 0 1 1 3 Wavo 0 0 0 0 1 Shahid Plus 1 2 3 3 4 Starz Play 2 4 6 7 10 Icflix 1 1 1 1 2 Apple TV+ 0 0 0 0 1 Disney+ 0 0 0 0 3 Amazon 0 0 0 0 1 Netflix 4 9 13 17 28
Digital TV Research publication schedule Title Publication Price 2020 Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1340/$1440 Africa OTT TV and Video Forecasts January £1200/€1340/$1440 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1340/$1440 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV and Video January £1200/€1340/$1440 Forecasts
2019 SVOD Platform Forecasts November £750/€900/$975 Pay TV Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300 SVOD Forecasts Update September £1000/€1200/$1300 OTT TV and Video Databook September £750/€900/$975 SVOD Databook September £750/€900/$975 Pay TV Databook September £750/€900/$975 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340 Global SVOD Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1500/€1800/$1950 Global AVOD Forecasts June £750/€900/$975 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts June £1000/€1200/$1300 Western Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts June £1000/€1200/$1300 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 Eastern Europe OTT TV and Video Forecasts May £1000/€1200/$1300 North America Pay TV Forecasts April £500/€600/$650 North America OTT TV and Video Forecasts April £500/€600/$650 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts April £1000/€1200/$1300 Latin America OTT TV and Video Forecasts April £1000/€1200/$1300 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300 Asia Pacific OTT TV and Video Forecasts March £1000/€1200/$1300
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