MENA SVOD players toil to compete with Netflix The MENA region will have 20.80 million movie and TV series SVOD subscribers by 2023, up from the 5.22 million recorded by end-2017. From the 20 countries covered in the Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts report, Turkey will remain the leader by some distance, with 6.72 million subscribers by 2023 – or a third of the region’s total. Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Netflix is dominant across the MENA region. This is partly because it operates in more territories than its Arabic competitors – it has significant subs bases in Israel and Turkey. However, its success is down to more than geographic reach. The global appeal of its original content has spread throughout the region.” SVOD subscriber forecasts by platform (000) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2017 2023 Others 2,303 5,235 beIN Connect 70 689 Wavo 20 675 Shahid Plus 103 1,603 Iflix 11 315 Starz Play 596 2,802 Icflix 140 729 Amazon 180 1,334 Netflix 1,799 7,413 Source: Digital TV Research From its regional total of 7.41 million, Netflix will have 3.57 million subscribers in Arabic-speaking countries by 2023. This is higher than its nearest rival Starz Play (2.80 million). The top eight multinational platforms (Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, Icflix, Starz Play, Iflix, Wavo, beIN Connect and Shahid Plus) will account for three-quarters of the region’s SVOD subscribers by end-2023, up from 56% in 2017. Extracting Israel and Turkey, these eight platforms will retain 91% of SVOD subscribers. Murray continued: “Although overall subscriber numbers will climb impressively, there are just too many Arabic platforms. They do not offer enough original or exclusive content to seriously challenge Netflix. We do not believe that the market can sustain this many Arabic platforms in the long run. Our report only covers paying SVOD subscribers – not those receiving free platforms as part of their pay TV subscription.” SVOD revenues will grow sixfold between 2017 and 2023 to $2.03 billion. Market leader Turkey will add $451 million to more than double its total to $603 million by 2023. Saudi Arabia will increase its SVOD revenues by a factor of seven to reach $351 million in 2023 to take second place. Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts Table of Contents Published in July 2018, this 184-page PDF and excel report comes in seven parts: • Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Major SVOD platforms, including market share for each; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2023 by platform, by household penetration, by SVOD subscribers and by OTT revenues; • Top-line forecasts (population, population per household, households, TV households, fixed broadband homes, smartphone users, tablet users) for 20 countries; • Country profiles for 20 territories; • Detailed country forecasts for 20 nations. • NEW FOR 2018: Prospects. Subscriber forecasts for 20 countries in a visually-appealing 44-page document. For more information, please click here or contact [email protected] Forecasts for the following 123 platforms across 20 countries: Country SVOD SVOD Platforms ops Algeria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Armenia 2 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video Azerbaijan 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo Bahrain 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Egypt 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Georgia 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo Israel 5 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Cellcom TV; Partner; Sting TV Jordan 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Kazakhstan 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo Kuwait 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Lebanon 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Morocco 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect Oman 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Qatar 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Saudi Arabia 8 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Iflix; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect Syria 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Tunisia 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus Wavo; beIN Connect Turkey 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Tivibu; Turkcell; beIN Connect; D-Smart blu; Vodafone TV UAE 7 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Icflix; Starz Play; Shahid Plus; Wavo; beIN Connect Uzbekistan 3 Netflix; Amazon Prime Video; Megogo SAMPLE: UAE OTT TV & video insight • OTT TV & video revenues will reach $168 million by 2023, quintuple the $30 million recorded in 2017. Advertising on OTT sites will provide $14 million to the 2023 total. SVOD will bring in a further $141 million by 2023, seven times the 2017 total. There were 267,000 SVOD homes by end-2017, and this will grow rapidly to 1,336,000 in 2023 (59% of TV households). Main assumptions behind the forecasts • The OTT sector is very competitive as a consequence we have substantially upgraded our SVOD forecasts. • There is plenty of SVOD activity. • The large ex-pat community will boost SVOD take-up. • Both fixed broadband and smartphone penetration are high. Source: Digital TV Research • Netflix launched in the UAE in January 2016 as part of its global expansion. Netflix has Arabic dubbed or subtitled content. Subscriptions cost at AED29.34- 44.00/month. We forecast 482,000 subs by 2023, up from 137,000 at end-2017. Netflix has a distribution deal with OSN. • Amazon Prime Video started operations in November 2016 as part of its global rollout. Subscriptions are cheaper than Netflix at $5.99/month, but Amazon offers less original or local content than Netflix. Appealing mostly to the ex-pat community, we forecast 87,000 Amazon subs by 2023. • Starz Play claimed 700,000 subscribers across 19 countries in the region by mid-2017. Transmitting in English, Arabic and French, Starz Play has 7,000 hours of Hollywood content as well as 1,300 hours of Arabic content. Starz has an exclusive distribution deal with Etisalat (AED35/month, $9.53) since January 2018. Previously Starz Play had partnered with Du (AED30/month). Given the added Arabic content, we expect its subs base to climb to 327,000 by 2023. • Started in 2012, Icflix is the longest established SVOD platform. We forecast 73,000 subscribers by 2023. With Arabic, English and French content, Icflix provides more than 20,000 hours of content. Icflix (AED29/month, $7.90) was carried by mobile operator Etisalat. • MBC’s Shahid Plus provides 10 linear channels as well as on-demand content. Shahid Plus is carried by mobile operator Du (AED20/month, $5.45). We forecast 200,000 subs by 2023. • OSN launched SVOD platform Wavo (AED26/month, $7.08) in August 2017. Wavo carries OSN’s movie archive and HBO content as well as 26 linear channels. OSN signed a distribution agreement with Netflix in February 2018, following one with mobile operator Du in October 2017. We expect 86,000 paying subscribers by 2023. • beIN Connect provides access to all 67 channels available on the satellite TV package as well as 2,000 on-demand TV episodes and 300 on-demand movies – free to satellite TV subs or AED66/month ($17.98) to others. We forecast 44,000 paying subscribers by 2023. • Telly is also available in the UAE. Telly is available in 14 countries across the region. • Launched in March 2011, Istikana ($3.99/month) is available in seven countries, including the UAE where it is carried by Du and Etisalat. • Hong Kong’s Viu started operations in Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE in February 2017. Local content is included as well as international fare to appeal to ex-pats. • Piracy is rife, with illegal decoders/smart cards (such as Dreambox) to pay satellite TV operations commonplace. Frequent attempts to combat these pirate dishes have been largely unsuccessful. However, OSN and others have made some progress in combating piracy. Etisalat subscriber growth (000) Double-play & Triple-play Fixed broadband 4Q10 180 700 4Q11 350 750 4Q12 510 810 4Q13 650 890 4Q14 780 980 4Q15 870 1,060 4Q16 960 1,110 4Q17 970 1,130 Source: Etisalat • Abu Dhabi-headquartered Etisalat migrated all of its e-Vision cable customers to its eLife bundles by March 2014. In October 2011, Etisalat launched eLife TV as a triple-play and OTT service via its fiber optic network (providing up to 500Mbps download speeds, with 90% of premises passed). eLife subscribers have access to OSN, beIN and Abu Dhabi Sports packages as well as the Starz Play SVOD platform (AED35/month). MBC channels are available exclusively. TV is not available as a standalone service. • In November 2017, Etisalat claimed to have launched the first 4G IPTV network in the region. Etisalat had 11.05 million mobile subscribers by March 2018. Du broadband and TV subscribers (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Broadband 96 124 140 157 172 185 197 TV 93 114 122 132 140 152 156 TV ARPU (AED) - - 65 69 72 75 Source: Du • Based in Dubai, Du’s IPTV service had an estimated 160,000 subs at end- 2017, which we forecast will reach 195,000 by 2023. Similar to Etisalat, Du has rolled out a fiber network (up to 1Gbps).