No. 2 June 20No.11 33 March 2014

h Who is leading the European Union?

Jean De Ruyt

HOW DO WE DEAL WITH THESE The European Union will only be CHALLENGES? reconciled with its citizens when they will be able to identify leaders Does the new institutional setting put in place at the level of the institutions. by the Lisbon Treaty give the institutions the tools to exert leadership and show the way ahead? 2014 witnessed an impressive changing of the guard at the top of the EU institutions: Jean The answer at first glance is not very positive: Claude Juncker, the eternal prime minister of the initiative for a war against the Islamic State Luxemburg, was ‘elected’ as the head of the originates from the United States and the Commission; the European Council chose its efforts to stop the Ukraine crisis are centred president, Donald Tusk, from the new for the moment in the ‘Normandy’ format – Member States; and Matteo Renzi’s success in with Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany, the European elections allowed him to have but not the EU itself. Italy’s Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini As for the economic crisis, national leaders appointed as the new High Representative. continue to blame the EU, which makes it as In the meantime, two new conflicts developed difficult for the Commission to launch in our neighbourhood: the war against the initiatives as it is for British politicians to Islamic State in Syria and Iraq – which struck convince their voters that their country should the Union at its core through several terrorist stay in the Union. And when it comes to actions – and the crisis in Ukraine, which solving the Greek debt problem, the direction confirmed the imperial ambitions of Putin’s continues to be dictated by Berlin, as it has Russia and our weakness in countering them. been since the beginning of the Eurozone crisis. The EU also continued to suffer the consequences of austerity policies, the rise of One could argue it’s always been this way: Euroscepticism and a new crisis in Greece since its beginnings as the European following the victory of Syriza in a national Economic Community, the Union was always election. And, in a few months, an election in led ‘from behind’ by its major Member States the United Kingdom threatens to shake its – with strong outside input from Washington deepest foundations. in the security field.

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But at the same time, step by step, more power Eurobarometers during the Constitutional has been given to the institutions and their Treaty crisis confirmed this. And when the leaders: since Maastricht, and with Jacques Lisbon Treaty entered into force, Tony Blair, Delors as a model, the powers of the president one of the most prominent European leaders, of the Commission have increased from treaty was the clear candidate to become the first to treaty; the High Representative, who had a permanent European Council president. modest mandate at the time of Javier Solana, has now replaced the rotating presidency in However, when the time came for the foreign policy and is a vice president of the Member States to choose, Tony Blair was not Commission; and the added value of a selected, and a US-style presidential election permanent president for the European remains at best a distant prospect. Any Council has been amply demonstrated in the suggestion that the president of the last five years by Herman Van Rompuy. Commission should chair the European Council is seen by many in academic circles as The question is thus: is the current situation a provocation. the end of the game or just a step in the development of ‘an ever-closer Union’? Will WHY IS IT SO DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP Member States gradually cease to lead the REAL LEADERSHIP AT EU LEVEL? Union from behind? Will we, in a not so distant future, have a president of Europe The answer lies in the famous ‘inter- modelled on the president of the United institutional balance’, one of the main States? foundations of the European construction. The compromise between an ever-closer It is obviously not possible to answer these Union and respect for national sovereignty questions now – just as it was not possible to was key to the success of the Communities believe in the 1980s that we would have a and later of the EU. This compromise implied common currency by 2000. The negotiators of that supra-nationality would remain diffuse the Amsterdam Treaty would never have and under strict control, managed at distance dared to sketch the profile of the triple-hatted in the Member States’ capitals – although High Representative, and when in 2004 Tony notably only by a few. Blair vetoed the appointment of Guy Verhofstadt as president of the Commission, The problem with this ‘leadership from he probably did not anticipate that Barroso’ s behind’ is that it no longer sits well with successor would be imposed on the European current challenges. Contrary to Eurosceptics’ Council by the European Parliament. wishes, the Union has more responsibilities than ever. The common interests of EU Leadership at the level of the institutions may citizens have become much more important be developing but the pace is too slow for than that which divides them – and European today’s growing challenges – and the regulations are increasingly impacting the expectations of EU citizens. everyday lives of the people.

Indeed, when asked, many in Europe and in It is thus quite logical that people are suffering third countries seem to believe that the Union from being ruled by leaders they did not would work better if it had real leaders at the choose – or cannot well identify. This is one level of the institutions. Several of the main reasons for the disenchantment of

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EU citizens, regrettably confirmed by the usually only publicise what makes them look recent European election results of 2014. To good – and tend to make the EU the be more popular, the EU needs real leaders, scapegoat for their own weaknesses. but given its current unpopularity, citizens will Furthermore, most European MPs remain far not willingly deliver more power to its too distant from those who voted for them. institutions. The citizen should be able to better HOW DO WE ESCAPE THIS VICIOUS understand what is at stake: European CIRCLE? institutional leaders need to be able to communicate directly and effectively with the The challenge for institutional leaders is to citizens, in language they understand. But to demonstrate daily their added value. They can be heard, they need to speak with the authority only assert their authority if they can of someone taking responsibility for what they demonstrate that their actions allow the Union are saying. to function to greater effect. From that perspective, there is ample room for them to WILL THE NEW LEADERS ACCELERATE occupy the political playground. THE PROCESS?

Even in the 1980s, Delors was able to Doubts can be expressed about the legitimacy demonstrate the ‘added value’ of an of the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ procedure but the institutional leader managing European spring 2014 saga demonstrated that there is at Community affairs. The High Representative least a real political will within EU political role was created to manage crises at our circles – and in parts of public opinion – to borders which could not be dealt with by the reinforce the power of the institutional leaders rotating presidency – or individual Member of the Union. States. A permanent president of the European Council was, as mentioned, Jean Claude Juncker has thus a certain indispensable to managing the euro crisis. legitimacy in pretending that his Commission will be more political and his Commissioners The first task of the institutional leaders is to more directly responsible for initiating and propose solutions to the Member States – implementing the policies defined by the something Delors excelled at. Their College – even if it is not yet clear if the double responsibility is to channel national initiatives, tier system he put in place will prevent to bring positions closer to each other, to precisely this from happening. bring a lost sheep back into the fold – and save its face. Their success relies on consistency of Juncker will probably take over most of the promises and actions and close cooperation economic policy responsibilities that the with leaders of the Member States and those European Council gave its own president at of third countries. the time of Herman Van Rompuy, and Donald Tusk will increase the role of the The opacity of the decision-making process at president of the European Council in Foreign the European level will remain. It comes from Policy. There are already clear signs of these the complexity of the ‘institutional triangle’, changes. which no one outside the Brussels inner circle can ever begin to understand. National leaders

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It would in one sense re-establish orthodoxy has demonstrated her competence in foreign with regard to the competences of the policy, and the diplomatic skills required to Commission, but if Tusk continues, as he has obtain the indispensable consensus of already begun, to take initiatives in foreign Member States for her initiatives. policy, it would also be a very broad interpretation of his foreign policy mandate as This remains the most important defined by the Treaty. consideration: as mentioned above, it is not for the current institutional actors to take over The new European Council president cannot the competences of the Member States as they be blamed for doing more than just are exerted through the Council and the ‘representing the Union at his level’ in European Council – or at the national level. Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) With the exception of instances when the matters. He’s put his finger on a weakness in Commission acts as a college for specific the Lisbon Treaty system: a crisis of a community matters, the institutional leaders magnitude of the Ukraine is not managed by can only assert their authority if there is foreign ministers but by the heads of state and consensus among the Member States. But it is government. Mogherini, who according to the also their task to shape this consensus – and treaty is supposed to ‘conduct’ CFSP, cannot to demonstrate that their actions allow the really interact at that level: her interlocutors Union to function to greater effect. are John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov, not Obama and Putin. At the top level, the EU can only Jean De Ruyt is a senior career diplomat, who offer the duo of the president of the Council has been ambassador of Belgium to the EU, the UN and NATO. Currently he is a Senior and of the Commission and, for foreign policy Policy Advisor for Covington & Burling in issues, the president of the European Council Brussels and he serves on the Board of – or Angela Merkel and François Hollande. McLarty Associates in Washington. He is also a visiting Professor at both Louvain University The most powerful current EU leader and the College of Europe in Natolin. remained a rather unknown figure until the 2008 economic crisis: the president of the European Central Bank. Europe would not be The European Policy Brief is a publication of Egmont, the Royal Institute for International Relations what it is today if Mario Draghi had not exerted a more than convincing leadership at EGMONT the head of the ECB. His advantage lies in the Royal Institute for International Relations Naamsestraat 69 fact that he is supposed to be independent, but 1000 Brussels even when his independence was challenged, BELGIUM he was able to take decisions, to make those decisions acceptable and to explain them to > www.egmontinstitute.be the public. He is the best model for the The opinions expressed in this Policy Brief are those of the argument I wish to make. authors and are not those of EGMONT, Royal Institute for International Relations

Federica Mogherini was greeted with scepticism when Matteo Renzi ‘imposed’ her The European Policy Brief is a publication of Egmont, the as High Representative. But since then, she Royal Institute for International Relations

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The opinions expressed in this Policy Brief are those of the