Hurricane Matthew Information from NHC Advisory 9A, 8:00 AM AST Fri September 30, 2016 Matthew Is Moving Toward the West-Southwest Near 14 Mph

eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Matthew Information from NHC Advisory 9A, 8:00 AM AST Fri September 30, 2016 Matthew is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph. A turn toward the west is expected later today, and this westward motion with a decrease in forward speed are forecast through Saturday. A turn toward the northwest is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Matthew could become a major hurricane later today or tonight.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 520 miles ESE of Kingston Speed: (category 2) Land: Jamaica Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 971 mb Coordinates: 13.8 N, 70.3 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 185 miles Bearing/Speed: WSW or 255 degrees at 14 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Matthew strengthening to a major hurricane (110+ mph winds) before making landfall on Cuba on Tuesday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Matthew’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map (below right) in pale gray. ■ Tropical storm conditions are possible in Curacao and Aruba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the watch area in Colombia beginning later today. ■ Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. ■ Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Matthew Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Matthew (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours - is in effect for Aruba and the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic Season to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 TS Matthew 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 09/30/16) 13 5 1 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016 12 TS Lisa TS Karl 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 09/30/15) 10 3 1 TS Julia

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Ian 8 TS Hermine 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Gaston TS Fiona 2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 TS Earl HU Matthew 4 TS Danielle HU Hermine (Colorado State University at July 1,‘16) TS Colin HU Gaston 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 TS Bonnie HU Earl M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Matthew is the thirteenth named storm and fifth hurricane of the The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw ten named storms average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It by September 30, one of which was Hurricane Joaquin – which shows, for example, that Matthew became the season’s fifth hurricane on went on to become Major Hurricane Joaquin on Oct 1, 2015. September 29. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Matthew, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average Additional Atlantic tropical cyclone formation is not expected remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at during the next 5 days. September 30 is 21% for all hurricanes and 16% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook on September 30, 2016 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652