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High-Resolution Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty James D

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High-Resolution Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty James D Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiment: High-Resolution Observations of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty James D. Doyle1, Jon Moskaitis1, Joel Feldmeier2, Ronald Ferek2, Mark Beaubien3, Michael Bell4, Daniel Cecil5, Robert Creasey6, Patrick Duran7, Russ Elsberry8, Will Komaromi1, John Molinari7, David Ryglicki9, Daniel Stern10, Chris Velden11, Xuguang Wang12, Todd Allen3, Brad Barrett13, Peter Black14, Jason Dunion15, Kerry Emanuel16, Pat Harr6, Lee Harrison6, Eric Hendricks6, Derrick Herndon11, William Jeffries3, Sharanya J. Majumdar17, James Moore18, Zhaoxia Pu19, Robert Rogers20, Elizabeth Sanabia13, Gregory Tripoli21, Da-Lin Zhang22 1Naval Research Laboratory, 2Office of Navy Research, 3Yankee Environmental Systems, Inc., 4Colorado State University, 5NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, 6Naval Postgraduate School, 7SUNY-Albany, 8University of Colorado – Colorado Springs, 9National Research Council, 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, University of Wisconsin-CIMSS, University of Oklahoma, U.S. Naval Academy, SAIC, HRD-CIMAS, MIT, University of Miami, NCAR, University of Utah, NOAA-HRD, University of Wisconsin, University of Maryland Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) Experiment Background Key TCI Instruments High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) NASA WB-57 Aircraft: Role of Outflow in TC Intensification • eXpendable Digital Dropsonde (XDD) system (YES, Mark Beaubien) • Dan Cecil and Sayak Biswas (NASA MSFC) . • Surface Wind Speed Retrievals in Hurricanes Marty, Joaquin, and Patricia Has Been Relatively Unexplored Duration ~6 h, range ~2000 nm, speed ~400 kt; Deploying AXBTs on C-130 • Profiles of pressure, temp., RH, winds, SST cruise altitude > 60,000 ft. • Capable of rapid sonde deployment (>80) • Demonstration tests in previous seasons 2010-2014 Few detailed observations of outflow layer . • Team of 10 TCI scientists (led by Michael Bell) performed careful QC coordinated with inner core observations Based at Ellington AFB, TX; deployed to: i) Harlingen, TX (EPAC); ii) Warner Robbins AFB, GA (WATL) Rapid High-Resolution Dropsonde Deployment Capability . Coordination: NASA GH, NOAA P-3, AF C-130 Tropical Storm Marty (27 Sep) Hurricane Patricia (23 Oct) - C-130 deployed AXBTs in TROPICS Key Science Issues 1) Document the inner-core at high- High Definition Sounding System (HDSS): resolution, and the larger-scale outflow . Innovative eXpendable Digital Dropsonde (XDD) 2) Understand the role of outflow during atmospheric profiling system (YES, Mark Beaubien) TC intensity change . Profiles of pressure, temp., RH, winds, SST 3) Explore air-sea interaction processes . Capable of rapid sonde deployment (>80) 4) Understand the impact of inner core and outflow observations on TC Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD): intensity and structure predictions. Multi-frequency, passive C-band radiometer, that measures ocean surface winds through heavy rain 1 . NASA MSFC developed instrument (Dan Cecil, PI) TCI Forecasting and Operations TCI Preliminary Highlights . The decision to forward-deploy the WB-57 needed to be made 3-5 days Real-Time Flight Ops Tools • Kerry Emanuel (MIT) Inverse Ri • Will Komaromi (NRC), J. Doyle (NRL) 500-hPa RH (Sondes) before the first intended science flight, for time to reposition the NCAR EOL Field Catalog NASA Mission Tools Suite (MTS) • Inverse Ri from dropsondes shows outflow • Patricia rapidly weakened by 50kts prior to landfall aircraft & personnel criticality to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. • Dropsondes show dry mid-level air and shear 1. 0 . The TCI mission scientists, forecast team, aircraft team, and NASA met Real\dailyhov060416_2125_2140.png to develop and act upon aircraft deployment plans Joaquin Deployment Decision Joaquin Forecasts • Dave Ryglicki (NRC), J. Cossuth, J. Doyle NRL Patricia: 19-22Z Oct 23, 2015 2015092812z, TD 11L • On Sept 28, TD 11L was a 30 kt depression. • Joaquin unexpectedly underwent RI in moderate to Intensity forecast • CTCX and HWRF indicated the potential for • high vertical shear (>5 ms-1) significant intensification, as did the 12z EC and Joaquin Russ Elsberry, Bob Creasey (NPS) ~20% of the EC ensemble (see below) (4 Oct) • Dropsondes used to identify the vortex • Hypothesis: Joaquin’s RI is due to the shear: • The forecast track of the TC was highly Archive: http://data.eol.ucar.edu/master_list/?project=TCI zero-wind centers (vortex tilt) uncertain, but appeared to be close enough to CTCX the east coast for multiple flights • Conner Nelson and BEST Lee Harrison (SUNY) • We decided to HWRF Eric Hendricks (NPS), M. Bell, R. Elsberry, • Dropsondes used to deploy the WB-57 C. Velden, and D. Cecil estimate W (Joaquin) Outflow jet to Georgia for what • New TC dynamic initialization technique became a sequence using high density AMVs and TCI obs. of 4 flights into Joaquin: 0415Z Oct 2, 2015 Joaquin NHC 2015092800 EC ensemble 1 1 (Sharan Majumdar, U. Miami) http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tci http://mts.nasa.gov/ TCI Sonde Wind Speed 1 • Dan Stern (UCAR), J. Doyle (NRL) • Jason Dunion (HRD) and Greg Tripoli (UW) • Analysis of Patricia flight on Oct. 23, 2015 • Examine TC diurnal pulses & influence of outflow, thermodynamics, wind shear • Max wind speed at ~6 km height • Hypothesis: Consequence of unbalanced flow Patricia on 23 Oct GOES IR 6-hr Temp Trend Overview of Tropical Cyclones Observed during TCI GOES Infrared HDSS Skew-T Hurricane Marty (Sep 27-28) T Anomaly (C) •Derrick Herndon and • 2014: 3 WB-57 flights over Hurr Gonzalo (YES, HIRAD, HIWRAP) C. Velden (CIMSS) • 2015: Unprecedented set of dropsonde and HIRAD observations in •Max. T anomaly ~19C in Hurricanes Marty, Joaquin, Patricia, and Tropical Storm Erika NHC Patricia; largest ever ~800 dropsondes deployed in 4 TCs in 11 WB-57 flights observed [exceeds TCI Sonde θ (K), Trop. Enhanced outflow High-resolution obs of inner core and outflow from > 60 kft Inez (1966) Hilda (1964)] above ~500 hPa Dropsondes & AMVs (UW) in real time (NCAR catalog, NASA MTS) TCI Ops Center at NRL (Monterey); Flight Ops Center at aircraft. •Patrick Duran & J. Molinari (SUNY) Inversion layer (1.4oC) • 23 kt VWS (across TINV) Hourly AMVs TCI Ops Center (NRL) •Striking tropopause deviation above • ~dry adiabatic sublayer (CIMSS, C. Velden) core (green line) and gravity waves • saturated WRT ice above evident NW of the TC center. Hypothesis: TC Diurnal pulses and associated radial surges of winds and the cirrus canopy support the unique wind and thermodynamic profiles shown here. Dropsonde Ejection E. Hendricks Flight Ops • Hurricane Marty (Cat 1) intensified in the presence of moderate shear • TCI performed 2 missions with TCI Observation Impact Summary and Future Directions WB-57 M. Beaubien M. Beaubien NHC Key Findings: 1 transects across eye and outflow 1 • Unprecedented set of dropsonde and HIRAD observations in Hurricanes Marty, Hurricane Joaquin (Oct 2-5) Hurricane Patricia (Oct 20-24) • Xuguang Wang and Xu Lu (U. Oklahoma) • Hybrid HWRF EnVar assimilation of TCI, AMV, TDR, HDOB observations Joaquin, Patricia, and Tropical Storm Erika NHC Valarro and Molinari NHC - ~800 dropsondes deployed in 11 WB-57 flights - High-resolution observations of inner core and outflow from > 60 kft - Dropsondes & AMVs (UW) analyzed in real time (NCAR catalog, NASA MTS) - TCI Ops Center at NRL (Monterey); Flight Ops Center at aircraft. •Preliminary Highlights: -HDSS sondes deployed (2-5 nmi spacing) over Patricia, Joaquin & Marty: details not seen before in the outflow layer, inner core, gravity waves… Oct 20 Oct 21 -Observations of the outflow layer made at high-spatial resolution for the first time in a major hurricane (Joaquin and Patricia) -New insight, modeling and theories on TC intensification & outflow Future Research: •Utilize TCI observations (HDSS, HIRAD, AMVs, AXBTs) and high-resolution models to test hypotheses & theories on interactions of TCs and outflow • Hurricane Joaquin (Cat 4) was the •Quantify impact of TCI obs. on forecasts using advanced assimilation methods strongest W. Atlantic Hurricane in 5 Oct 22 Oct 23 •Collaboration with NOAA SHOUT (Global Hawk) for TC outflow studies (2016) years. (poorly forecasted) •Hurricane Patricia was most intense TC recorded Acknowledgements in the W. Hemisphere (185 kts) (poorly forecasted) This research is supported by the Office of Naval Research program element (PE) 0601153N. We thank the crew of the • TCI performed 4 missions with •Intensified from a TS to Cat 5 in 24 h NASA WB-57 for their excellent support, as well as the USAF 53rd WRS as part of the TROPIC program. We NHC transects across eye and outflow NHC •46 dropsondes across Patricia at 2 nmi on 23 Oct acknowledge NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory for their mission support through the EOL Field Catalog and TCI archive, and NASA for support and access to the Mission Tools Suite. COAMPS-TC® is a registered trademark of NRL. 1 1 .
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