DOCSLIB.ORG

An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico JULY 2005 F ARFÁN AND CORTEZ 2069 An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFÁN Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C., Unidad La Paz, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico MIGUEL CORTEZ Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua, México, Distrito Federal, Mexico (Manuscript received 20 July 2004, in final form 26 January 2005) ABSTRACT This paper documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja California peninsula. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and proceeded northward in the Gulf of California. A network of surface meteorological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected strong winds. Satellite and radar imagery are used to analyze the structure of convective patterns, and rain gauges recorded total precipitation. A comparison of Marty’s features at landfall, with respect to Juliette (2001), indicates similar wind intensity but differences in forward motion and accumu- lated precipitation. Official, real-time forecasts issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center prior to landfall are compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid configuration with hori- zontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km, with two (72- and 48-h) simulations. The output of the model provides a reasonable prediction of Marty’s motion during landfall and the circulation characteristics are consistent with the information derived from observations. Additionally, the model was used to estimate the role of the peninsular mountain ranges in a realistic simulation of the storm track over the Gulf of California. 1. Introduction second time in 15 yr when two storm systems moved into the area in the same season. The earlier two-storm The 2003 season of tropical cyclones delivered 16 landfall season occurred in 1993, making landfall as named storms in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and 5 tropical storms that contributed with a moderate of them made landfall in Mexico. Among this group, amount of rainfall (Avila and Mayfield 1995). two hurricanes came ashore in the southern portion of For the years 1951–2000, the history of tropical cy- Baja California. Ignacio made landfall on 24 August clone landfalls in northwestern Mexico was studied by and Marty moved across the area on 22 September Jáuregui (2003). In that 50-yr time frame, the Baja Cali- (Beven 2004). These storms brought strong winds and fornia peninsula was the most exposed region and it heavy rainfall that was responsible for several deaths, was struck by 20 hurricanes and 33 tropical storms. Fur- enormous property damage, soil erosion and flooding, ther, the other west coast states had hurricane and and evacuation from coastal communities. This was the tropical storm landfalls that ranged from 1 in Sonora to 26 in Sinaloa. By comparison, a total of 31 systems made landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula during the Corresponding author address: Dr. Luis M. Farfán, Centro de same period. Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C., Unidad La Paz, Miraflores #334, La Paz, B.C.S. 23050, Tropical cyclones are important in the climatology of México. summer precipitation over western Mexico because E-mail: [email protected] they provide a significant portion of the water re- © 2005 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/02/21 10:39 AM UTC MWR2966 2070 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 133 Ϫ FIG. 1. Time series of sustained wind speeds (circles; m s 1) at Cabo San Lucas during the period (a) 1600 UTC 14 Aug–1600 UTC 16 Aug 2000, (b) 1600 UTC 8 Sep–1600 UTC 10 Sep 2000, (c) 0400 UTC 12 Sep–0400 UTC 14 Sep 2001, and (d) 0000 UTC 27 Sep–0000 UTC 29 Sep 2001. Time axis (day/hour) is centered at maximum speed and covers a period of 48 h. Time interval for speeds is 10 min and 1 h for barbs. Full barb represents 5.0 m sϪ1 and half barb 2.5 m sϪ1. Dotted lines mark the location of speeds at 19 and 33 m s Ϫ1. sources. In a study covering the period 1949–97, Engle- (NHC) showed that 44 named systems developed in the hart and Douglas (2001) documented the distribution eastern Pacific during this period. The year 2000 was of rainfall associated with the approach of these sys- selected because it was the first year that a significant tems. For three stations in Baja California, the maxi- number of automatic surface stations were operating in mum rainfall in the southern tip (Cabo San Lucas area) Mexico (Rosengaus 2001) and the first year of an op- was recorded during extreme cases while stations erating station in the southern part of the peninsula. northward received less rainfall because they are lo- For this study, the analysis of each season was limited to cated farther from the core of the storm activity in the July, August, and September. Although station density tropical Pacific. Documenting structure and intensity of and distribution are not ideal to analyze all cases in precipitation of significant cases enhances our ability to detail, these high-resolution data are useful to deter- calculate social, economic, and ecological impacts on mine storm impact over specific coastal areas. this area. Figure 1 shows sustained winds (10-min average) The impact of tropical cyclones on Baja California is with speed above 19.0 m sϪ1 during the 2000–02 tropi- illustrated by surface data at Cabo San Lucas for 2000– cal storm seasons. The horizontal (time) axis is cen- 02. Records from the U.S. National Hurricane Center tered at the occurrence of maximum speed for each Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/02/21 10:39 AM UTC JULY 2005 F A R F Á N AND CORTEZ 2071 TABLE 1. Selected parameters recorded from the automatic surface station in Cabo San Lucas during the 2000–02 tropical cyclone seasons. Date (year/month/day) Tropical cyclone MAXSPD MAXGST MAXRNF MINDIS 00/08/15 Ileana 20.2 28.2 120 76 00/09/09 Lane 24.2 29.9 101 450 01/09/13 Ivo 19.1 24.3 113 225 01/09/28 Juliette 39.1 46.7 1011 100 MAXSPD ϭ Maximum sustained wind speed (m sϪ1). MAXGST ϭ Maximum peak gust (m sϪ1). MAXRNF ϭ Maximum storm rainfall (mm). MINDIS ϭ Minimum distance (km) between the best-track position and station location. identified event. Maximum speeds tend to occur in con- datasets during the landfall phase of Tropical Cyclone junction with wind shifts and a pressure minimum (not Marty (2003) in Baja California. Marty is an important shown) that suggests the approach of well-defined, case to analyze, in part, because it made landfall while moving circulations. In fact, all cases are associated sustaining hurricane intensity over major cities of the with tropical cyclones within 450 km of the station, southern part of the peninsula. Observations indicated which included Ileana and Lane in 2000 and Ivo and that the urbanized population experienced an impact Juliette in 2001 (Fig. 1). There were no cases of strong that was similar to that from Hurricane Juliette in 2001. winds or nearby tropical cyclones during 2002. Impor- Specific attention is given to the following topics: 1) tant parameters describing storm impact at the station documenting Marty’s maximum intensity so that a com- are given in Table 1, with the approach of Juliette as the parison with Juliette at Cabo San Lucas is possible, 2) only case having hurricane-intensity sustained wind describing Marty’s evolution from official forecasts and speeds (above 33 m sϪ1). Although Lane remained well model simulations that started before the storm made offshore, 24.2 m sϪ1 sustained wind speeds and 29.9 landfall, and 3) applying model simulations as a guide msϪ1 peak gusts were recorded at the station. For all to understanding changes in the storm track while it cases, peak gusts tend to be 19%–40% higher than the proceeded over the peninsular landmass. For this pur- corresponding sustained wind speeds. pose, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State Universi- Tracks of systems that had an impact in the southern ty–National Center for Atmospheric Research Meso- peninsula are shown in Fig. 2 and their positions are scale Model (MM5) was used. derived from the NHC best-track dataset for the east- This paper is divided into five sections. In section 2, ern Pacific. In general, higher wind speed occurs when the area of study and sources of observational data are tropical cyclones are located south or southwest of described. In section 3, a description of the best track Cabo San Lucas. Most storm systems arrive from areas and observed data on the evolution of Marty are pro- south of 20°N and move along a northwestward direc- vided. Section 4 presents operational forecasts in real tion, with the exception of Juliette (2001), which ac- time, as well as MM5 simulations, which are focused on quired a large meridional component and crossed the describing changes of the storm’s track and structure at peninsula. While positioned west of the recording sta- landfall. The fifth section summarizes results and states tion, Juliette moved slowly northward, generating the conclusion. strong winds (20–39 m sϪ1; Fig.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Tropical Cyclone—Induced Heavy Rainfall and Flow in Colima, Western Mexico
    Heriot-Watt University Research Gateway Tropical cyclone—Induced heavy rainfall and flow in Colima, Western Mexico Citation for published version: Khouakhi, A, Pattison, I, López-de la Cruz, J, Martinez-Diaz, T, Mendoza-Cano, O & Martínez, M 2019, 'Tropical cyclone—Induced heavy rainfall and flow in Colima, Western Mexico', International Journal of Climatology, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6393 Digital Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1002/joc.6393 Link: Link to publication record in Heriot-Watt Research Portal Document Version: Peer reviewed version Published In: International Journal of Climatology General rights Copyright for the publications made accessible via Heriot-Watt Research Portal is retained by the author(s) and / or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing these publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Take down policy Heriot-Watt University has made every reasonable effort to ensure that the content in Heriot-Watt Research Portal complies with UK legislation. If you believe that the public display of this file breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 02. Oct. 2021 1 Tropical cyclone - induced heavy rainfall and flow in 2 Colima, Western Mexico 3 4 Abdou Khouakhi*1, Ian Pattison2, Jesús López-de la Cruz3, Martinez-Diaz 5 Teresa3, Oliver Mendoza-Cano3, Miguel Martínez3 6 7 1 School of Architecture, Civil and Building engineering, Loughborough University, 8 Loughborough, UK 9 2 School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, Heriot Watt University, 10 Edinburgh, UK 11 3 Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Colima, Mexico 12 13 14 15 Manuscript submitted to 16 International Journal of Climatology 17 02 July 2019 18 19 20 21 *Corresponding author: 22 23 Abdou Khouakhi, School of Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering, Loughborough 24 University, Loughborough, UK.
    [Show full text]
  • Fall 2006 OKLAHOMA CLIMATE
    OKLAHOMA CLIMATE Fall 2006 Anything But Pacific Loss Mitigation Conference 2006 EarthStorm Teachers on the Road Cloud Seeding MESSAGE FROM THE EDITOR Table of Contents Hurricanes are the most destructive weather phenomenon on the Earth, with Anything But Pacific..........................................3 apologies to our own little terrors of Mother Nature, tornadoes. The awful Oklahoma Climate & Loss Mitigation Conf. .......6 destruction wrought upon the Gulf Coast by Katrina silenced any arguments on that subject. But in one of the great ironies for a state that has suffered greatly Answers to the Classroom Activity.................7 due to hazardous weather, Oklahoma has actually benefited in the past from the arrival of those monster cyclones. They are no longer Hurricanes by the time they Photos From the Field.....................................8 pass over Oklahoma soil, of course, merely remnants of their former powerful selves. When they do arrive, however, they bring with them a sizable amount of EarthStorm Teachers On the Road...............10 tropical moisture. Imagine a gigantic sponge floating over the state, waiting to be squeezed. And if there is ever a time that the state could use a good wallop Summer 2006 Climate Summary.................14 of moisture, it’s during the type of drought we’ve experienced the last couple of Agriculture Weather Watch............................19 years. Urban Farmer..................................................20 We decided to concentrate this issue of “Oklahoma Climate” on hurricanes and their effects on the state. Our historical perspective delves right into the issue Classroom Activity...........................................21 with a look back at Oklahoma’s previous brushes with tropical cyclones and how they’ve helped to end droughts.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Ignacio
    HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Ignacio Information from CPHC Advisory 21, 5:00 PM HST Saturday August 29, 2015 The Hawaiian Islands remain vulnerable as Major Hurricane Ignacio continues moving steadily northwest. On the forecast track, Ignacio is expected to pass northeast of the Big Island on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Ignacio is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Little change in intensity is expected tonight and a weakening trend is expected to begin on Sunday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 140 mph Position Relative to 525 miles ESE of Hilo, HI Speed: (category 4) Land: 735 miles ESE of Honolulu, HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 952 mb Coordinates: 17.0 N, 147.6 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 140 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 315 degrees at 9 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The CPHC forecast map (below left) shows Ignacio passing northeast of the Hawaiian Islands at hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. The map also shows the main Hawaiian Islands are not within Ignacio’s potential track area. The windfield map (below right) is based on the CPHC’s forecast track which is shown in bold black. The map shows Ignacio’s tropical storm force and greater winds passing just northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. To illustrate the uncertainty in Ignacio’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown in pale gray.
    [Show full text]
  • Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs.
    [Show full text]
  • The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to The
    AUGUST 2009 C O R B O S I E R O E T A L . 2415 The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States KRISTEN L. CORBOSIERO Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California MICHAEL J. DICKINSON Weather Predict Consulting, Inc., Narragansett, Rhode Island LANCE F. BOSART Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 26 August 2008, in final form 6 March 2009) ABSTRACT Forty-six years of summer rainfall and tropical cyclone data are used to explore the role that eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) play in the rainfall climatology of the summer monsoon over the southwestern United States. Thirty-five TCs and their remnants were found to bring significant rainfall to the region, representing less than 10% of the total number of TCs that formed within the basin. The month of September was the most common time for TC rainfall to occur in the monsoon region as midlatitude troughs become more likely to penetrate far enough south to interact with the TCs and steer them toward the north and east. On average, the contribution of TCs to the warm-season precipitation increased from east to west, accounting for less than 5% of the rainfall in New Mexico and increasing to more than 20% in southern California and northern Baja California, with individual storms accounting for as much as 95% of the summer rainfall. The distribution of rainfall for TC events over the southwest United States reveals three main categories: 1) a direct northward track from the eastern Pacific into southern California and Nevada, 2) a distinct swath northeastward from southwestern Arizona through northwestern New Mexico and into southwestern Col- orado, and 3) a broad area of precipitation over the southwest United States with embedded maxima tied to terrain features.
    [Show full text]
  • R1r Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ignacio 22-27 August 2003 Miles B
    Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ignacio 22-27 August 2003 Miles B. Lawrence National Hurricane Center 8 December 2003 Ignacio impacted the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula with torrential rains and hurricane-force winds. Two deaths were reported. a. Synoptic History Ignacio is believed to have originated from a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the tropical Atlantic Ocean on 6 August. The wave continued westward without distinction and moved across Central America to the Pacific Ocean on 16 August. Cloudiness associated with the wave gradually increased and became organized into a distinct area of disturbed weather by 20 August over Pacific waters just south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It took an additional two days for the disturbed weather to become well-enough organized to be classified as a tropical depression. At that time, it was centered about 100 n mi west of the Mexican mainland and also about 190 n mi southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path starts on 22 August and is plotted on Fig. 1. Best track wind and pressure histories are shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. A mid-level sub-tropical ridge lay to the north of Ignacio throughout its lifetime. However Ignacio was embedded in a weakness within the ridge and this resuted in a slow, mostly northwestward motion, with a forward speed of 5 kt or less. The depression quickly strengthened, to Tropical Storm Ignacio early on 23 August and to a hurricane early on 24 August.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Validation Using
    1 Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Validation Using 2 Dropsondes 3 4 Daniel J. Cecil1 and Sayak K. Biswas2 5 6 1 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL 7 2 Universities Space Research Association, Huntsville, AL 8 9 10 11 Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 12 13 14 15 Corresponding author email: [email protected] 16 17 Abstract 18 Surface wind speed retrievals have been generated and evaluated using Hurricane 19 Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) measurements from flights over Hurricane Joaquin, Hurricane 20 Patricia, Hurricane Marty, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika, all in 2015. Procedures are 21 described here for producing maps of brightness temperature, which are subsequently used for 22 retrievals of surface wind speed and rain rate across a ~50 km wide swath for each flight leg. An 23 iterative retrieval approach has been developed to take advantage of HIRAD’s measurement 24 characteristics. Validation of the wind speed retrievals has been conducted, using 636 25 dropsondes released from the same WB-57 high altitude aircraft carrying HIRAD during the 26 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment. 27 The HIRAD wind speed retrievals exhibit very small bias relative to the dropsondes, for 28 winds tropical storm strength (17.5 m s-1) or greater. HIRAD has reduced sensitivity to winds 29 weaker than tropical storm strength, and a small positive bias (~2 m s-1) there. Two flights with 30 predominantly weak winds according to the dropsondes have abnormally large errors from 31 HIRAD, and large positive biases. From the other flights, root mean square differences between 32 HIRAD and the dropsonde winds are 4.1 m s-1 (33%) for winds below tropical storm strength, 33 5.6 m s-1 (25%) for tropical storm strength winds, and 6.3 m s-1 (16%) for hurricane strength 34 winds.
    [Show full text]
  • MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
    MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories.
    [Show full text]
  • HURRICANE MARTY (EP172015) 26 – 30 September 2015
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE MARTY (EP172015) 26 – 30 September 2015 Robbie Berg National Hurricane Center 5 January 2016 NASA TERRA/MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE MARTY AT 1735 UTC 28 SEPTEMBER 2015, NEAR THE TIME OF ITS PEAK INTENSITY WHILE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO Marty was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that meandered off the southwestern coast of Mexico for a few days. Marty caused heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero. Hurricane Marty 2 Hurricane Marty 26 – 30 SEPTEMBER 2015 SYNOPTIC HISTORY A tropical wave that moved across the west coast of Africa on 10 September contributed to Marty’s formation off of the southern coast of Mexico. While moving westward across the tropical Atlantic the wave split, with the slower-moving northern portion initiating the development of Tropical Depression Nine on 16 September over the central Atlantic. The faster-moving southern portion of the wave reached the northern coast of South America on the same day and moved across Venezuela and Colombia through 21 September. The wave continued westward, and deep convection increased over a large area south of the coasts of Mexico and Central America during the next few days. Satellite images indicated that a well-defined low pressure system developed by 1200 UTC 26 September, and the associated convection became sufficiently organized and persistent for the system to be designated as a tropical depression at 1800 UTC that day while centered about 290 n mi southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
    [Show full text]
  • DYNAT-D-09-00016 Title
    Elsevier Editorial System(tm) for Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans Manuscript Draft Manuscript Number: DYNAT-D-09-00016 Title: Is the ocean responsible for the intense tropical cyclones in the Eastern Tropical Pacific? Article Type: Full Length Article Keywords: Major hurricanes; Eastern Pacific basin warm pool; sea level anomaly; warm ocean eddies. Corresponding Author: Dr Orzo Sanchez Montante, PhD Physical Oceanography Corresponding Author's Institution: CICATA-IPN Centro de Ciencias Aplicadas y tecnologia Avanzada del Instituto Politecnico Nacional First Author: Orzo S Montante, PhD Physical Oceanography Order of Authors: Orzo S Montante, PhD Physical Oceanography; Graciela B Raga, PhD; Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo, PhD Abstract: The Eastern Pacific (EP) is a very active cyclogenesis basin, spawning the largest number of cyclones per unit area in the globe. However, very intense cyclones are not frequently observed in the EP basin, particularly when the database is constrained to cyclones that remain close to the Mexican coast and those that make landfall. During the period 1993-2007, nine Category 5 hurricanes developed in the EP basin, but only 5 reached maximum intensity while located East of 120W and only one made landfall in Mexico, as Category 4, in 2002. This cyclogenetical area is a favorable region for hurricane intensification, because of the elevated sea surface temperatures observed throughout the year, constituting a region known as the "Eastern Tropical Pacific warm pool", with relatively small annual variability, particularly in the region between 10 and 15N and East of 110W. In this study we evaluate oceanic conditions, such as sea surface temperature, sea surface height and their anomalies, and relate them to the intensification of major hurricanes, with particular emphasis on those cyclones that remain close to the Mexican coast, including those that make landfall.
    [Show full text]
  • Community–Based Opportunities Needs
    ICF_COVERS_NEEDS 2/21/06 11:44 AM Page 1 BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR’S COMMUNITY–BASED OPPORTUNITIES ARTS & CULTURE COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT & EDUCATION NEEDS ENVIRONMENT HEALTH 2006 ICF_COVERS_NEEDS 2/21/06 11:44 AM Page 2 BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR’S COMMUNITY-BASED OPPORTUNITIES & NEEDS Edited by: Richard Kiy Anne McEnany Chelsea Monahan UABCS Authors: Micheline Cariño Sofía Cordero Leticia Cordero Jesús Zariñán Mario Monteforte Cándido Rendón Additional Research Support: Y. Meriah Arias, Ph.D. Juan Salvador Aceves Emmanuel Galera Spanish Translation: Cristina del Castillo Shari Budihardjo Saytel Martin Lopez Volunteers and Interns: Kate Pritchard Dion Ward Jennifer Hebets Lisette Planken Reviewers: Gabriela Flores Paul Ganster, Ph.D. Fernando Ortiz Ministerios Enrique Hambleton Sergio Morales Polo Amy Carstensen Cinthya Castro Julieta Mendez Online Version: Hong Shen Graphic Design and Maps: Amy Ezquerro Fausto Santiago Mario Monteforte ICF gratefully acknowledges the generosity of the individuals and family foundations that financially supported this publication. COVER PHOTOS: Front cover: Niños del Capitán daycare center, Cabo San Lucas Back cover (clockwise from upper left): Dentist at Niños del Capitán medical clinic, Cabo San Lucas; Girls at community center operated by Fundación Ayuda Niños La Paz, La Paz; Child at Niños del Capitán; Mammillaria in bloom; Volunteers and children at Liga MAC, Cabo San Lucas; Fishing family, Agua Verde. 2 PREFACE y all accounts, the state of Baja California Sur is one of the In an effort to better assess the current and future needs of Baja most ecologically diverse and beautiful places in the California Sur and expand charitable giving across the state, the BWestern Hemisphere with diverse, arid terrain and International Community Foundation (ICF) is proud to release aquamarine water containing an abundance of marine life.
    [Show full text]
  • 1- Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Marty 18-24 September 2003 James L. Franklin National Hurricane Center 22 January 2004
    Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Marty 18-24 September 2003 James L. Franklin National Hurricane Center 22 January 2004 Marty was a category 2 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) when it made landfall on the southern Baja California peninsula. Marty then spread strong winds and heavy rains up the entire Gulf of California before dissipating. Marty was responsible for 12 deaths. a. Synoptic History Marty developed from a tropical wave that moved into the eastern North Pacific basin from Central America on 10 September. Convection associated with the wave became more persistent on 16 September south of Manzanillo, Mexico, and on 18 September the convection began to become organized. The system received its initial Dvorak classification at 1200 UTC that day, and it is estimated that a tropical depression had formed by 1800 UTC, about 450 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. South of a weak mid-level ridge and in a light shear environment, the depression moved to the west-northwest at about 5 kt and strengthened, becoming a tropical storm at 0600 UTC 19 September about 400 n mi south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Relatively little development occurred over the next day or so, perhaps due to some relatively dry air entering the system from the east. Around 1200 UTC 20 September, Marty’s very intense but previously shapeless convection began to develop into bands and the pace of development increased as the system moved slowly northwestward.
    [Show full text]