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HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Ignacio Information from CPHC Advisory 21, 5:00 PM HST Saturday August 29, 2015 The Hawaiian Islands remain vulnerable as Major Hurricane Ignacio continues moving steadily northwest. On the forecast track, Ignacio is expected to pass northeast of the Big Island on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Ignacio is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Little change in intensity is expected tonight and a weakening trend is expected to begin on Sunday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 140 mph Position Relative to 525 miles ESE of Hilo, HI Speed: (category 4) Land: 735 miles ESE of Honolulu, HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 952 mb Coordinates: 17.0 N, 147.6 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 140 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 315 degrees at 9 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The CPHC forecast map (below left) shows Ignacio passing northeast of the Hawaiian Islands at hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. The map also shows the main Hawaiian Islands are not within Ignacio’s potential track area. The windfield map (below right) is based on the CPHC’s forecast track which is shown in bold black. The map shows Ignacio’s tropical storm force and greater winds passing just northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. To illustrate the uncertainty in Ignacio’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown in pale gray. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island of Hawaii starting Sunday night. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches mainly in higher terrain, are possible in the watch area. Large swells generated by Ignacio will arrive along east and southeast facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next several days. Resultant surf will be large and potentially life-threatening, especially on the Big Island later this weekend and early next week. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Ignacio Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Ignacio (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) (Based on CPHC at 18:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A tropical storm watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours of the initial issuance – is in effect for Hawaii County and Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai, and Kahoolawe. Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of Ignacio. Watches may be required for additional islands later today or tonight. Tropical Storm Wind Speed Probabilities at 8 AM HST Saturday, August 29, for the next five days The maps below show probabilities of maximum sustained wind speeds over the next five days. The map at lower left shows the Hawaiian Islands have a 10-to-50 percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or greater. The map at lower right shows several of the Hawaiian Island have a 5-to-20 percent chance of seeing maximum sustained wind speeds greater than 58 mph (50 knots). NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation National Hurricane Center The map at right illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone formation Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 29, 2015 potential over the next 48 hours in the Eastern Pacific. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions, however, are only favorable for slow development of this system while it moves toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph. Chances of formation are 10 percent through the next two days and 50 percent through the next five days. Hurricane Jimena, located about 1285 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is also shown and is expected to follow a track similar to Ignacio’s. Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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