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Measuring Mission ASSESSMENT OF THE BENEFITS OF EXTENDING THE TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE RESEARCH AND OPERATIONS COMMUNITIES INTERIM REPORT Committee on the Future of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Division on Earth and Life Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Insti- tute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this project was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administra- tion under Contract No. NASW-01001. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or rec- ommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not neces- sarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-10282-0 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the re- sponsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Nation- al Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Acad- emies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF THE TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) EUGENE RASMUSSON (Chair), University of Maryland (retired), College Park, Maryland V. CHANDRASEKAR, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado CAROL ANNE CLAYSON, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida JEFFREY D. HAWKINS, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California KRISTINA B. KATSAROS, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (retired), Freeland, Washington M. PATRICK MCCORMICK, Hampton University, Hampton, Virginia MATTHIAS STEINER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey GRAEME L. STEPHENS, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado CHRISTOPHER S. VELDEN, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin RAY A. WILLIAMSON, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. NRC Staff PAUL CUTLER, Study Director LEAH PROBST, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant v BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ROBERT J. SERAFIN (Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado M. JOAN ALEXANDER, NorthWest Research Associates/CORA, Boulder, Colorado FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, McKenna Long & Aldridge LLP, Washington, D.C. MICHAEL L. BENDER, Princeton University, New Jersey ROSINA M. BIERBAUM, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor MARY ANNE CARROLL, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor CAROL ANNE CLAYSON, Florida State University, Tallahassee WALTER F. DABBERDT, Vaisala Inc., Boulder, Colorado KERRY A. EMANUEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge DENNIS L. HARTMANN, University of Washington, Seattle PETER R. LEAVITT, Weather Information Inc., Newton, Massachusetts JENNIFER A. LOGAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts VERNON R. MORRIS, Howard University, Washington, D.C. F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, University of California, Irvine THOMAS H. VONDER HAAR, Colorado State University/CIRA, Fort Collins ROGER M. WAKIMOTO, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Ex Officio Members ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University of Maryland, College Park ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey NRC Staff CHRIS ELFRING, Director PAUL CUTLER, Senior Program Officer AMANDA STAUDT, Senior Program Officer IAN KRAUCUNAS, Associate Program Officer CURTIS MARSHALL, Program Officer CLAUDIA MENGELT, Associate Program Officer ELIZABETH A. GALINIS, Research Associate LEAH PROBST, Research Associate ROB GREENWAY, Senior Program Assistant KATIE WELLER, Program Assistant DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Coordinator ANDREAS SOHRE, Financial Associate vi Prologue This report was originally released in December 2004 in prepublication form as the first report of a two-phase study to be carried out by the same committee. The first phase was sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Adminis- tration (NASA) and focused on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The second phase was sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmo- spheric Administration and focused on the Global Precipitation Measurement mission. The report of the second phase will be published in a separate volume in 2006. A number of significant decisions for TRMM have been made since Decem- ber 2004. In 2005, NASA approved a waiver of its controlled reentry guidelines to allow TRMM to operate beyond the minimum fuel point required for a con- trolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere. In advance of the 2005 NASA Senior Review of 12 Earth science missions, NASA’s TRMM team proposed to extend TRMM.1 NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center was directed to continue TRMM science operations through fiscal year 2009, and TRMM may be further extend- ed as a result of a future NASA Senior Review. As of the publication of this report, the TRMM spacecraft and instruments are in excellent condition and are fully operational.2 TRMM has enough fuel to operate until approximately 2012. June 2006 1The TRMM Senior Review Proposal is available online at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/ Events/TRMMSeniorProp_1.pdf [accessed May 11, 2006]. 2As mentioned in Chapter 1, Box 1-1, the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System instrument failed shortly after launch. In 2002, one of the two Solar Array Drive Actuators lost sun-tracking function, leading to slightly less available power for the spacecraft but sufficient power for nominal operations of all working instruments. For up-to-date TRMM information and operational status, visit the mission Website at http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov. vii Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap- proved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The pur- pose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manu- script remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Phillip Arkin, University of Maryland, College Park Peter Bauer, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berkshire, UK Russell Elsberry, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California Roger Pielke, Jr., University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder Amanda Preble, Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii Roger Wakimoto, University of California, Los Angeles Although the reviewers listed above
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