State of the Climate in 2015
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Member Report
MEMBER REPORT ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 10 th Integrated Workshop REPUBLIC OF KOREA 26-29 October 2015 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia CONTENTS I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area since the last Typhoon Committee Session (as of 10 October) II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas (1) Starting the Tropical Depression Forecast Service (2) Typhoon Post-analysis procedure in KMA (3) Capacity Building on the Typhoon Analysis and Forecast (4) Co-Hosting the 8 th China-Korea Joint Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (5) Theweb-based portal to provide the products of seasonal typhoon activity outlook for the TC Members (POP5) (6) Implementation of Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS)inthe Thai Meteorological Department and Lao PDR Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (POP4) (7) Development and application of multi-model ensemble technique for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast (8) Improvement in TC analysis using automated ADT and SDT operationally by COMS data and GPM microwave data in NMSC/KMA (9) Typhoon monitoring using ocean drifting buoys around the Korea (10) Case study of typhoon CHAN-HOM using Yong-In Test-bed dual-polarization radar in Korea (11) Achievementsaccording toExtreme Flood Forecasting System (AOP2) (12) Technical Report on Assessment System of Flood Control Measures (ASFCM) (13) Progress on Extreme Flood Management Guideline (AOP6) (14) Flood Information Mobile Application (15) The 4 th Meeting and Workshop of TC WGH and WGH Homepage (16) 2015 Northern Mindanao Project in Philippines by NDMI and PAGASA (17) Upgrade of the functions in Typhoon Committee Disaster Information System (TCDIS) (18) The 9 th WGDRR Annual Workshop (19) 2015 Feasibility Studies to disseminate Disaster Prevention Technology in Vietnam and Lao PDR I. -
Observation of Near-Inertial Oscillations Induced by Energy Transformation During Typhoons
energies Article Observation of Near-Inertial Oscillations Induced by Energy Transformation during Typhoons Huaqian Hou 1,2, Fei Yu 1,*, Feng Nan 1, Bing Yang 1, Shoude Guan 1 and Yuanzhi Zhang 3,* 1 Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China; [email protected] (H.H.); [email protected] (F.N.); [email protected] (B.Y.); [email protected] (S.G.) 2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3 Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China * Correspondence: [email protected] (F.Y.); [email protected] (Y.Z.); Tel.: +86-186-5328-0417 (F.Y.) Received: 19 October 2018; Accepted: 25 December 2018; Published: 29 December 2018 Abstract: Three typhoon events were selected to examine the impact of energy transformation on near-inertial oscillations (NIOs) using observations from a subsurface mooring, which was deployed at 125◦ E and 18◦ N on 26 September 2014 and recovered on 11 January 2016. Almost 16 months of continuous observations were undertaken, and three energetic NIO events were recorded, all generated by passing typhoons. The peak frequencies of these NIOs, 0.91 times of the local inertial frequency f, were all lower than the local inertial frequency f. The estimated vertical −1 group velocities (Cgz) of the three NIO events were 11.9, 7.4, and 23.0 m d , and were relatively small compared with observations from other oceans (i.e., 100 m d−1). The directions of the horizontal near-inertial currents changed four or five times between the depths of 40 and 800 m in all three NIO events, implying that typhoons in the northwest Pacific usually generate high-mode NIOs. -
Hurricane Ignacio
HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Ignacio Information from CPHC Advisory 21, 5:00 PM HST Saturday August 29, 2015 The Hawaiian Islands remain vulnerable as Major Hurricane Ignacio continues moving steadily northwest. On the forecast track, Ignacio is expected to pass northeast of the Big Island on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Ignacio is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Little change in intensity is expected tonight and a weakening trend is expected to begin on Sunday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 140 mph Position Relative to 525 miles ESE of Hilo, HI Speed: (category 4) Land: 735 miles ESE of Honolulu, HI Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 952 mb Coordinates: 17.0 N, 147.6 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 140 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 315 degrees at 9 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The CPHC forecast map (below left) shows Ignacio passing northeast of the Hawaiian Islands at hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. The map also shows the main Hawaiian Islands are not within Ignacio’s potential track area. The windfield map (below right) is based on the CPHC’s forecast track which is shown in bold black. The map shows Ignacio’s tropical storm force and greater winds passing just northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. To illustrate the uncertainty in Ignacio’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown in pale gray. -
Soaring Weather
Chapter 16 SOARING WEATHER While horse racing may be the "Sport of Kings," of the craft depends on the weather and the skill soaring may be considered the "King of Sports." of the pilot. Forward thrust comes from gliding Soaring bears the relationship to flying that sailing downward relative to the air the same as thrust bears to power boating. Soaring has made notable is developed in a power-off glide by a conven contributions to meteorology. For example, soar tional aircraft. Therefore, to gain or maintain ing pilots have probed thunderstorms and moun altitude, the soaring pilot must rely on upward tain waves with findings that have made flying motion of the air. safer for all pilots. However, soaring is primarily To a sailplane pilot, "lift" means the rate of recreational. climb he can achieve in an up-current, while "sink" A sailplane must have auxiliary power to be denotes his rate of descent in a downdraft or in come airborne such as a winch, a ground tow, or neutral air. "Zero sink" means that upward cur a tow by a powered aircraft. Once the sailcraft is rents are just strong enough to enable him to hold airborne and the tow cable released, performance altitude but not to climb. Sailplanes are highly 171 r efficient machines; a sink rate of a mere 2 feet per second. There is no point in trying to soar until second provides an airspeed of about 40 knots, and weather conditions favor vertical speeds greater a sink rate of 6 feet per second gives an airspeed than the minimum sink rate of the aircraft. -
Typhoon Maysak Situation Report No
FSM: Typhoon Maysak Situation Report No. 5 (as of 17 April 2015) This report is produced by the Office of Environment and Emergency Management in collaboration with FSM National and Yap and Chuuk State authorities, UNDAC, USAID and humanitarian partners. It covers the period from 15 to 17 April 2015. The date for the issuing of the next report is Tuesday 21 April. Highlights The Caroline Voyager is docked in Yap since April 22, 2015 and re-provisioning. It is scheduled to depart for Ulithi, Fais, and Fareulap on April 25, 2015 to continue its delivery of relief items. Vice President Alik Alik is making his official visit to the State of Yap on April 25, 2015 for a week, scheduled to visit the islands of Ulithi and Fais during his stay. USAID conducted an Airlift of Emergency Relief Supplies to Yap and Chuuk on April 22, 2015. Tanks being loaded on Voyager for Outlying effected islands, April 23, 2015 Food Assistance Over 90% of Emergency water Home repair Infrastructure c. 30,000 source and water and repair and Affected crops for 6 Individuals destroyed treatment reconstruction rehabilitation months supplies Situation Overview Typhoon Maysak made landfall at Chuuk lagoon on Sunday 29th March and Ulithi Atoll, Yap on 1st April while neighboring islands within the two states also experienced strong destructive winds causing damages. Governor Johnson Elimo of Chuuk and Governor Tony Ganngiyan of Yap had on 30th March and 1st April respectively declared state of emergency for their states. President Manny Mori consequently had declared a State of Emergency for both states and reaffirms the FSM Emergency Task Force to coordinate all response efforts which includes mobilization of national government resources and international assistance. -
Strategic Plan 2021-2025
Strategic Plan 2021-2025 Map of FSM 2 Contents Map of FSM ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 Key Issues in the FSM________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 Country Context _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 7 Major Vulnerability and Hazards Analysis _________________________________________________________________________________ 8 History of Micronesia Red Cross Society (MRCS) __________________________________________________________________________ 9 IFRC Strategy 2030 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 11 MRCS Vision _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 12 MRCS Mission: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 12 Strategic Aims 2021-2025 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ 13 Strategic Aim 1: Save lives in times of disasters and crises ______________________________________________________________ 14 Strategic Aim 2: Enable healthy and safe living ___________________________________________________________________________ 16 Strategic Aim 3: Promote the prevention and reduction of vulnerability, social inclusion and a culture of non- violence -
Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. -
Improved Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA: Lessons Learned and Path Forward
Improved global tropical cyclone forecasts from NOAA: Lessons learned and path forward Dr. Vijay Tallapragada Chief, Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch & HFIP Development Manager Typhoon Seminar, JMA, Tokyo, Japan. NOAA National Weather Service/NCEP/EMC, USA January 6, 2016 Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 1/90 Rapid Progress in Hurricane Forecast Improvements Key to Success: Community Engagement & Accelerated Research to Operations Effective and accelerated path for transitioning advanced research into operations Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 2/90 Significant improvements in Atlantic Track & Intensity Forecasts HWRF in 2012 HWRF in 2012 HWRF in 2015 HWRF HWRF in 2015 in 2014 Improvements of the order of 10-15% each year since 2012 What it takes to improve the models and reduce forecast errors??? • Resolution •• ResolutionPhysics •• DataResolution Assimilation Targeted research and development in all areas of hurricane modeling Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 3/90 Lives Saved Only 36 casualties compared to >10000 deaths due to a similar storm in 1999 Advanced modelling and forecast products given to India Meteorological Department in real-time through the life of Tropical Cyclone Phailin Typhoon Seminar JMA, January 6, 2016 4/90 2014 DOC Gold Medal - HWRF Team A reflection on Collaborative Efforts between NWS and OAR and international collaborations for accomplishing rapid advancements in hurricane forecast improvements NWS: Vijay Tallapragada; Qingfu Liu; William Lapenta; Richard Pasch; James Franklin; Simon Tao-Long -
Global Catastrophe Review – 2015
GC BRIEFING An Update from GC Analytics© March 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHE REVIEW – 2015 The year 2015 was a quiet one in terms of global significant insured losses, which totaled around USD 30.5 billion. Insured losses were below the 10-year and 5-year moving averages of around USD 49.7 billion and USD 62.6 billion, respectively (see Figures 1 and 2). Last year marked the lowest total insured catastrophe losses since 2009 and well below the USD 126 billion seen in 2011. 1 The most impactful event of 2015 was the Port of Tianjin, China explosions in August, rendering estimated insured losses between USD 1.6 and USD 3.3 billion, according to the Guy Carpenter report following the event, with a December estimate from Swiss Re of at least USD 2 billion. The series of winter storms and record cold of the eastern United States resulted in an estimated USD 2.1 billion of insured losses, whereas in Europe, storms Desmond, Eva and Frank in December 2015 are expected to render losses exceeding USD 1.6 billion. Other impactful events were the damaging wildfires in the western United States, severe flood events in the Southern Plains and Carolinas and Typhoon Goni affecting Japan, the Philippines and the Korea Peninsula, all with estimated insured losses exceeding USD 1 billion. The year 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, characterized by warm waters in the east Pacific tropics. This was associated with record-setting tropical cyclone activity in the North Pacific basin, but relative quiet in the North Atlantic. -
Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
Pacific ENSO Update: 2Nd Quarter 2015
2nd Quarter, 2015 Vol. 21, No. 2 ISSUED: May 29h, 2015 Providing Information on Climate Variability in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands for the Past 20 Years. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac CURRENT CONDITIONS The weather and climate of the central and western and travelled westward toward the Philippines. When tropical Pacific through April 2015 was extraordinary, with another typhoon formed in early February, a whole new forecast noteworthy extremes of rainfall, typhoons and oceanic response scenario opened: El Niño might strengthen and persist through to strong atmospheric forcing. The most damaging climatic 2015. The same suite of climate indicators that had predicted El extreme was the occurrence of a super typhoon (Maysak) that Niño in the first few months of 2014 was once again present in swept across Micronesia leaving a trail of destruction from even greater force in early 2015. This includes heavy rainfall in Chuuk State westward through Yap State, with Ulithi the RMI, early season typhoons, westerly wind bursts on the experiencing a devastating direct strike. A selection of equator, and falling sea level. During early March, a major additional weather and climate highlights includes: westerly wind burst occurred that led to the formation of the (1) Republic of Marshals Islands (RMI) -- record- tropical cyclone twins Bavi and Pam (Fig. 3). This westerly setting heavy daily and monthly rainfall on some atolls; wind burst (WWB) and associated tropical cyclone outbreak (2) Western North Pacific -- abundant early season shown in Figure 3 registered as the highest value of the Madden- tropical cyclones (5 in 4 months); Julian Oscillation (MJO) ever recorded (Fig. -
An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico
JULY 2005 F ARFÁN AND CORTEZ 2069 An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico LUIS M. FARFÁN Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada B.C., Unidad La Paz, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico MIGUEL CORTEZ Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua, México, Distrito Federal, Mexico (Manuscript received 20 July 2004, in final form 26 January 2005) ABSTRACT This paper documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja California peninsula. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and proceeded northward in the Gulf of California. A network of surface meteorological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected strong winds. Satellite and radar imagery are used to analyze the structure of convective patterns, and rain gauges recorded total precipitation. A comparison of Marty’s features at landfall, with respect to Juliette (2001), indicates similar wind intensity but differences in forward motion and accumu- lated precipitation. Official, real-time forecasts issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center prior to landfall are compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid configuration with hori- zontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km, with two (72- and 48-h) simulations.