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Member Report MEMBER REPORT ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 10 th Integrated Workshop REPUBLIC OF KOREA 26-29 October 2015 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia CONTENTS I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area since the last Typhoon Committee Session (as of 10 October) II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas (1) Starting the Tropical Depression Forecast Service (2) Typhoon Post-analysis procedure in KMA (3) Capacity Building on the Typhoon Analysis and Forecast (4) Co-Hosting the 8 th China-Korea Joint Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (5) Theweb-based portal to provide the products of seasonal typhoon activity outlook for the TC Members (POP5) (6) Implementation of Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System (TAPS)inthe Thai Meteorological Department and Lao PDR Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (POP4) (7) Development and application of multi-model ensemble technique for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast (8) Improvement in TC analysis using automated ADT and SDT operationally by COMS data and GPM microwave data in NMSC/KMA (9) Typhoon monitoring using ocean drifting buoys around the Korea (10) Case study of typhoon CHAN-HOM using Yong-In Test-bed dual-polarization radar in Korea (11) Achievementsaccording toExtreme Flood Forecasting System (AOP2) (12) Technical Report on Assessment System of Flood Control Measures (ASFCM) (13) Progress on Extreme Flood Management Guideline (AOP6) (14) Flood Information Mobile Application (15) The 4 th Meeting and Workshop of TC WGH and WGH Homepage (16) 2015 Northern Mindanao Project in Philippines by NDMI and PAGASA (17) Upgrade of the functions in Typhoon Committee Disaster Information System (TCDIS) (18) The 9 th WGDRR Annual Workshop (19) 2015 Feasibility Studies to disseminate Disaster Prevention Technology in Vietnam and Lao PDR I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area in 2015 1. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts) The figure s below show the track s of typhoons such as CHAN-HOM (1 509 ), NANGKA (1511), HALOLA (1512) and GONI (1515) that made impacts on the Korean peninsula and KMA’s jurisdictional sea areas in 2015. CHAN-HOM (1509 )and GONI (1515) made direct impacts on the peninsula on Ju ly11~13 and August 24~26 , respectively. Meanwhile, NANGKA (1 511 ) had an effect on the eastern part of KOREA and the East Sea after it passed Japan on July16~17. HALOLA (1512) wa s recorded as a severe tropical storm (STS) that made a direct impact on July26~27 after it r edeveloped into a STS from a tropical depression. HALOLA came over the Central Pacific on July 13 and dissipated as a tropical depression on July 18 then upgraded into a Typhoon again on July 20. Figure 1-1.TC tracks that affected the Korean Peninsula in 2015 When the Korean peninsula was under the influence of CHAN -HOM (1 509) and GONI (1515) , the amount of precipitation reached more than 300mm , especially it recorded 1250.5mm in Halla Mountain in Jeju, Korea, during the effect days of CHAN-HOM. Typhoon CHAN -HOM and GONI were very helpful in relieving severe drought in the Korean peninsula. However, winds were not that strong during the passages of these four typhoons because each typhoon itself had an influenc ed on the Korean peninsula as a weak stage and without direct landfall process even though it recorde d 36.1m/s wind gust in Ulleung island and more than 20m/s wind gusts in the coastal areas. No. 9CHAN -HO M (July 11~13) No. 11 NANGKA (July 16~17) No. 12 HALOLA (July 27) No. 15 GONI (August 24~26) Figure 1-2. Spatial distribution of rainfall (left), typhoon name & impact periods (mid) and wind gust (right) on the Korean Peninsula affected by typhoons. 2. Hydrological Assessment (highlighting water-related issues/impact) The typhoons that directly/indirectly affected Korea in 2015 were the 9 th “CHAN-HOM”, the 11 th “NANGKA”, the 12 th “HALOLA”, and the 15 th “GONI”. The typhoon “CHANHOM” was a large tropical cyclone affecting Guam, Japan, China and Korea. It occurred in the ocean near 1,660 km east–southeast of Guam in the morning of June 30, 2015. Its force was gradually weakened while moving toward the West Sea of Korea through moving across the coast near the south western of Okinawa, Japan and the coast near Shanghai, China. The Typhoon “NANGKA” was formed in the ocean near 2,860 km east of Guam the morning of July 4, 2015. It was rapidly weakened while passing through Japan and entered the East Sea of Korea. Then typhoon “NANGKA” was dissipated in the ocean near 300 km east of Dokdo Island, Korea in the morning of July 18, 2015. The typhoon “HALOLA” was a long-lived and strong tropical cyclone which formed in the central Pacific Ocean in the morning of July 10, 2015. It was gradually weakened while approaching Okinawa, Japan and eventually it was dissipated in the ocean near 155 km south-east of Busan, Korea in July 29, 2015. The typhoon “GONI” occurred in the eastern coast of Guam in the morning of August 15, 2015 and passed along the south-western ocean of Okinawa, Japan. Then the typhoon passed along the southern Seogwipo of Juju Island, the southeast of Pusan, and the ocean near the northeast of Ulleung Island, Korea and moved to North Korea. In Ulsan and Busan areas in Korea, the airline service was temporarily suspended due to rainfall with strong winds caused from the typhoon “GONI”. There was no flood forecast issue by typhoon during the year 2015 in Korea and nor was property and casualties. As of September, multi-purpose dam storage rate reaches only 72% of previous year because there was a little rainfall in monsoon season and by typhoon. Without rainfall by typhoon in this year, the state of water shortage is unavoidable till next monsoon season. So the Korean government is considering the measures to overcome water shortage. (a) 9 th Typhoon CHAN-HOM(June 2015) (b) 11 th Typhoon NANGKA(July 2015) (c) 12 th Typhoon HOLALA (July, 2015) (d) 15 th Typhoon GONI (Aug., 2015) Figure 1-3. Typhoon track affecting Korea, 2015 3. Socio-Economic Assessment (highlighting socio-economic and DRR issues/impacts) N/A 4. Regional Cooperation Assessment (highlighting regional cooperation successes and challenges) N/A II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas TC Members’ Report Summary of Progress in KRAs Title of item 1 : Starting the TropicalDepression Forecast Service Main text : The National Typhoon Center of the KMA (NTC/KMA) launched the Tropical Depression (TD) forecast service to the public on 1st May 2015. This service is intended to ensure the preparedness of tropical cyclone disasters through the national disaster management system as part of the Korean government’s projects. TD forecast has been required for the prevention of disasters, as a tropical cyclone, still may be accompanied by dangerous meteorological phenomena such as heavy rain and strong wind, though it dissipated into a TD. Therefore, the NTC has prepared the TD service since 2013 and carried out a two-year beta test for the TDs, which are expected to develop into a tropical storm (TS) within 24 hours or to affect the KMA’s jurisdiction areas as a TD status. TD information contains its location, intensity, moving speed and direction. It is serviced through KMA’s website and mobile, etc., in the same way that Typhoon information service is provided. It is expected to contribute to mitigating the damage from tropical cyclones. Figure2-1. Tropical Depression Information Identified opportunities/challenges, if any, for further development or collaboration: Summary Table of relevant KRAs and components (please tick boxes, can be more than one, as appropriate): KRA = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Meteorology √ √ Hydrology DRR Training and research Resource mobilization or regional collaboration Republic of Korea Name of contact Member: WGM for this item: Nam-Young KANG Telephone: +82 -70 -7850 -6355 Email: [email protected] Title of item 2 : Typhoon post-analysis procedure in KMA Main text: For years, the NTC/KMA has been preparing for a complete data set of best-track with its own post-analysis procedure. This is expected to be one of the major functionalities of the future NTC. In 2014, NTC constructed a proto-type of typhoon post-analysis interface with the help of techniques and skills that have been continuously improved. The system is designed to store available information from various sources and post-analyze the storm attributes such as track, intensity and size at the moment of forecast. One of the major concerns about the best-track is the track information. Here, the analysis procedure employs a new technique considering a subjective confidence range of the TC position. Overlaying the circles of the confidence range from different sources, the narrowest range of the possible position is obtained. A smoothing technique linking the circles returns the draft track for a storm,then forecasters review, modify, finalize and save the track into best-track data. It has been tested for the four tropical cyclones affected the warning area around the Korean peninsula. The procedure as well as the system is still under refinement in 2015. The first full set of NTC best-track for 2015 western North Pacific TCs is scheduled to be published in 2016. Figure 2-2. Conce ptual diagram of a best -track (left) and the best-track of NEOGURI (1408, right) Identified opportunities/challenges, if any, for further development or collaboration: Summary Table of relevant KRAs and components (please tick boxes, can be more than one, as appropriate): KRA = 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Meteorology √ √ Hydrology DRR Training and research Resource mobilization or regional collaboration Republic of Korea Name of contact Member: WGM for this item: Nam-Young KANG Telephone: +82-70-7850-6355 Email: [email protected] Title of item 3: Capacity Building onthe Typhoon Analysis and Forecast Main text : NTC/KMA has carried out the Typhoon Research Fellowship Program of the Training and Research Coordination Group of Typhoon Committee for many typhoon experts from the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee members since 2001.
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