Hurricane Joaquin

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 18A, 8:00 AM EDT Friday October 2, 2015 On the forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin is a dangerous category 4 hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to begin on Saturday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 130 mph Position Relative to 30 miles NNE of Clarence Long Speed: (category 4) Land: Island Bahamas Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 937 mb Coordinates: 23.4 N, 74.8 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 205 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 315 degrees at 3 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions of central and southeastern Bahamas through today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions will affect other portions of the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba this morning.  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods.  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells affecting portions of the southeastern coast of the United States will spread northward along the east coast of the US through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Regardless of Joaquin's track, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Forecast Track for Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Joaquin (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

© Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guJoaquinnce only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2

Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours – is in effect for the Central Bahamas, Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, and the A cklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the Southeastern Bahamas. A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, within 48 hours – is in effect for Bimini, and Andros Island. A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours – is in effect for Andros Island, the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo, and the remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/2/15) 10 3 2

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/2/14) 5 4 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7

2015 CSU season forecasts 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15)

2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 (August 6, 2015)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Joaquin is the tenth named storm, third hurricane, and second major The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It five named storms by October 2; four were hurricanes, but none were shows, for example, that Joaquin became the season’s tenth named major hurricanes. storm on Sept 28, third hurricane on Sept 29 and second major hurricane on Sept 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk

Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There is remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 2 is currently one region in the Atlantic where tropical cyclone 20% for all hurricanes and 14% for major hurricanes. formation is possible within the next 48 hours - east of Joaquin

and indicated with a red ‘X’. The NHC gives the region 80% chance of developing within the next 48 hours. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 2, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652

Page 2 of 2