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Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 25, 5:00 PM EDT Saturday October 3, 2015 on the Forecast Track, the Eye of Joaquin Will Pass West of Bermuda on Sunday

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Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 25, 5:00 PM EDT Saturday October 3, 2015 on the Forecast Track, the Eye of Joaquin Will Pass West of Bermuda on Sunday HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 25, 5:00 PM EDT Saturday October 3, 2015 On the forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will pass west of Bermuda on Sunday. However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer to Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight, but Joaquin is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 150 mph Position Relative to 500 miles SW of Bermuda Speed: (category 4) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 934 mb Coordinates: 27.0 N, 70.5 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 205 miles Bearing/Speed: NE or 45 degrees at 17 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Joaquin approaching Bermuda at hurricane strength. The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Joaquin approaching Bermuda at hurricane strength. To illustrate the uncertainty in Joaquin’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray. Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday afternoon. Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday. Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Forecast Track for Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Joaquin (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guJoaquinnce only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, within 48 hours – is in effect for Bermuda. A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 24 to 36 hours – is in effect for Bermuda. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/3/15) 10 3 2 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/3/14) 5 4 0 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2015 CSU season forecasts 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) 2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 (August 6, 2015) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Joaquin is the tenth named storm, third hurricane, and second major The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It five named storms by October 3; four were hurricanes, but none were shows, for example, that Joaquin became the season’s tenth named major hurricanes. storm on Sept 28, third hurricane on Sept 29 and second major hurricane on Sept 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently two regions in the Atlantic where tropical cyclone remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 3 is formation is possible within the next 48 hours – both east of 19% for all hurricanes and 14% for major hurricanes. Joaquin and indicated with yellow ‘Xs’. The NHC gives 20% and near 0% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, to the western and eastern regions, respectively. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 3, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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