HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 25, 5:00 PM EDT Saturday October 3, 2015 On the forecast track, the eye of Joaquin will pass west of Bermuda on Sunday. However, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane and stronger winds closer to Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin is a strong category 4 hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight, but Joaquin is forecast to gradually weaken during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 150 mph Position Relative to 500 miles SW of Bermuda Speed: (category 4) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 934 mb Coordinates: 27.0 N, 70.5 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 205 miles Bearing/Speed: NE or 45 degrees at 17 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Joaquin approaching Bermuda at hurricane strength.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Joaquin approaching Bermuda at hurricane strength. To illustrate the uncertainty in Joaquin’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.  Tropical storm conditions are first expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday morning, with hurricane conditions possible by Sunday afternoon.  Outer rain bands of Joaquin will begin to affect Bermuda by early Sunday, and Joaquin is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rainfall over Bermuda through Monday.  Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days. Swells are affecting much of the southeastern coast of the United States and will spread northward along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. Swells from Joaquin will begin affecting Bermuda today and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Even though Joaquin is expected to pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding likely. Forecast Track for Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Joaquin (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, within 48 hours – is in effect for Bermuda. A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 24 to 36 hours – is in effect for Bermuda.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/3/15) 10 3 2 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/3/14) 5 4 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2015 CSU season forecasts 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) 2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 (August 6, 2015)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Joaquin is the tenth named storm, third hurricane, and second major The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It five named storms by October 3; four were hurricanes, but none were shows, for example, that Joaquin became the season’s tenth named major hurricanes. storm on Sept 28, third hurricane on Sept 29 and second major hurricane on Sept 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average are currently two regions in the Atlantic where tropical cyclone remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 3 is formation is possible within the next 48 hours – both east of 19% for all hurricanes and 14% for major hurricanes. Joaquin and indicated with yellow ‘Xs’. The NHC gives 20% and near 0% chance of developing within the next 48 hours, to the western and eastern regions, respectively.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 3, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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