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Hurricane Joaquin HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 14A, 8:00 AM EDT Thursday October 1, 2015 On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin will move near or over portions of the central Bahamas today and tonight and pass near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast in the next day or so, with some fluctuations in intensity possible on Friday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 120 mph Position Relative to 10 miles N of Samana Cays Speed: (category 3) Land: Bahamas Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 942 mb Coordinates: 23.2 N, 73.7 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 140 miles Bearing/Speed: WSW or 240 degrees at 5 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of the central and southeastern Bahamas through Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. Tropical storm conditions will affect the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the northwest Bahamas within the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 2 feet is expected in the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected over the southeastern Bahamas with 2 to 4 inches over the northwestern Bahamas. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash floods. Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States today and spread northward through the weekend. Forecast Track for Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Joaquin (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. © Copyright 2015 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guJoaquinnce only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours – is in effect for the Central Bahamas, Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, and the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana. A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, within 48 hours – is in effect for Bimini, and Andros Island. A tropical storm warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours – is in effect for Southeastern Bahamas excluding the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Andros Island. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/1/15) 10 3 2 2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/1/14) 5 4 0 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2015 CSU season forecasts 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) 2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 (August 6, 2015) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Joaquin is the tenth named storm, third hurricane, and second major The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It five named storms by October 1; four were hurricanes, but none were shows, for example, that Joaquin became the season’s tenth named major hurricanes. storm on Sept 28, third hurricane on Sept 29 and second major hurricane on Sept 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There is remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 1 is currently one region in the Atlantic where tropical cyclone 20% for all hurricanes and 15% for major hurricanes. formation is possible within the next 48 hours - east of Joaquin and indicated with an orange ‘X’. The NHC gives the region 50% chance of developing within the next 48 hours. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 1, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier 7760 France Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55435 [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 Page 2 of 2 .
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