Hurricane Joaquin

HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Joaquin Information from NHC Advisory 10A, 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday September 30, 2015 On the forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central Bahamas tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 245 miles ENE of the central Speed: (category 1) Land: Bahamas Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 971 mb Coordinates: 24.9 N, 72.2 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 125 miles Bearing/Speed: WSW or 235 degrees at 6 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Joaquin approaching the US East Coast at hurricane storm.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Joaquin approaching the US East Coast at hurricane strength. To illustrate the uncertainty in Joaquin’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the Bahamas during the next few days, and will begin to affect portions of the east coast of Florida and the southeast coast of the United States by Friday.  Joaquin is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible over San Salvador and Rum Cay through Friday morning. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the remainder of the central Bahamas through Friday morning, with 2 to 4 inches expected over the northwestern and southeastern Bahamas. Forecast Track for Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Windfield for Hurricane Joaquin (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours – is in effect for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador. A hurricane watch – meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, within 48 hours – is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. This includes the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 9/30/15) 10 3 1

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 9/30/14) 5 4 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2015 CSU season forecasts 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15)

2015 NOAA season forecasts 6-10 1-4 0-1 (August 6, 2015)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Joaquin is the tenth named storm and third hurricane of the 2015 The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year saw only five named storms by average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It September 30, but four were hurricanes. shows, for example, that Joaquin became the tenth named storm of the season on September 28 and the season’s third hurricane on September 30. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There is both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average currently one region in the Atlantic where tropical cyclone remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at formation is possible within the next 48 hours - east of Joaquin September 30 is 21% for all hurricanes and 16% for major hurricanes. and indicated with a yellow ‘X’. The NHC gives the region 30% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 30, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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