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Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Improve Hurricane Track

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Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Improve Hurricane Track USING BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING TO IMPROVE HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS by ROBERT HILL SHACKELFORD JR (Under the Direction of JEFFREY H. DORFMAN) ABSTRACT I study whether Bayesian composite forecasting can produce improved track forecasts for hurricanes. Using data on hurricanes back to 2005, the first step is to find a set of storms most similar to the one to have its track forecast. Then, the performance of ten hurricane forecasting models on those similar storms is used to calculate the weights that will be placed on each of these models. These weights are used to form a Bayesian composite forecast of the track for the hurricane of interest, rather than the currently, more standard, simple average utilized by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). On a small selection of recent hurricanes, the performance of the Bayesian composite forecast tracks are compared to the individual model forecasts and the NHC official forecasts. In most of our cases, the Bayesian composite forecast is more accurate than the NHC forecast. INDEX WORDS: Bayesian, Hurricane Forecasting, Bayesian Model Averaging, Tracking USING BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING TO IMPROVE HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS by ROBERT HILL SHACKELFORD JR BS, University of Georgia, 2014 BSEC, University of Georgia, 2014 A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of Georgia in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree MASTER OF SCIENCE ATHENS, GEORGIA 2017 © 2017 Robert Shackelford All Rights Reserved USING BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING TO IMPROVE HURRICANE TRACK FORECASTS by ROBERT HILL SHACKELFORD JR Major Professor: Jeffrey H. Dorfman Committee: Marshall Shepherd Craig Landry Electronic Version Approved: Suzanne Barbour Dean of the Graduate School The University of Georgia August 2017 DEDICATION This paper is dedicated to my wife Hannah. I love you so much and I am so thankful for how you have fought for me as I have worked on this paper. This paper is also dedicated to my family and friends who have made me the person I am today. This paper is most importantly dedicated to Jesus Christ, who provided me the means to get my Master’s degree. I look forward to how You will continue to use me in the next season. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge Jeff Dorfman for helping me with the coding to make our results a viable alternative to tracking hurricanes. I would also like to acknowledge for Theresa Andersen and Marshall Shepherd for assisting in interpreting the NOAA hurricane data to be able to use their archive to make it all possible. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................1 2 BACKGROUND ...........................................................................................................5 3 DATA ..........................................................................................................................14 4 METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................................16 5 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................22 TABLE 1: FORECAST ACCURACY RESULTS................................................23 TABLE 2: MSE COMPARISONS ........................................................................24 TABLE 3: MATTHEW FORECAST WITH POWER 2 ......................................25 TABLE 4: MATTHEW FORECAST WITH POWER 10 ....................................25 TABLE 5: MATTHEW FORECAST WITH POWER 50 ....................................25 TABLE 6: NHC FORECAST FOR MATTHEW .................................................26 TABLE 7: OFFICAL TRACK FOR MATTHEW ................................................26 TABLE 8: EARL FORECAST WITH POWER 2 ................................................27 TABLE 9: EARL FORECAST WITH POWER 10 ..............................................27 TABLE 10: EARL FORECAST WITH POWER 50 ............................................27 vi TABLE 11: NHC FORECAST FOR EARL .........................................................28 TABLE 12: OFFICAL TRACK FOR EARL ........................................................28 TABLE 13: DANNY FORECAST WITH POWER 2 ..........................................29 TABLE 14: DANNY FORECAST WITH POWER 10 ........................................29 TABLE 15: DANNY FORECAST WITH POWER 50 ........................................29 TABLE 16: NHC FORECAST FOR DANNY .....................................................30 TABLE 17: OFFICAL TRACK FOR DANNY ....................................................30 TABLE 18: BERTHA FORECAST WITH POWER 2 .........................................31 TABLE 19: BERTHA FORECAST WITH POWER 10 .......................................31 TABLE 20: BERTHA FORECAST WITH POWER 50 .......................................31 TABLE 21: NHC FORECAST FOR DANNY .....................................................32 TABLE 22: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR DANNY ...................................................32 TABLE 23: HUMBERTO FORECAST WITH POWER 2 ..................................33 TABLE 24: HUMBERTO FORECAST WITH POWER 10 ................................33 TABLE 25: HUMBERTO FORECAST WITH POWER 50 ................................33 TABLE 26: NHC FORECAST FOR HUMBERTO .............................................34 TABLE 27: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR HUMBERTO ...........................................34 TABLE 28: ACCURACY MEASURES FOR LANDFALL FORCASTS ...........38 TABLE 29: ISAAC FORECAST ..........................................................................38 TABLE 30: NHC FORECAST FOR ISAAC ........................................................38 TABLE 31: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR ISAAC .....................................................39 TABLE 32: HERMINE FORECAST ....................................................................39 TABLE 33: NHC FORECAST FOR HERMINE ..................................................40 vii TABLE 34: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR HERMINE ...............................................40 TABLE 35: SANDY FORECAST ........................................................................40 TABLE 36: NHC FORECAST FOR SANDY ......................................................41 TABLE 37: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR SANDY ...................................................41 TABLE 38: JOAQUIN FORECAST .....................................................................41 TABLE 39: NHC FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN ..................................................42 TABLE 40: OFFICAIAL TRACK FOR JOAQUIN .............................................42 TABLE 41: MATTHEW FORECAST ..................................................................42 TABLE 42: NHC FORECAST FOR MATTHEW ...............................................43 TABLE 43: OFFICIAL TRACK FOR MATTHEW .............................................43 6 CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................47 REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................48 APPENDICES A CODING FOR SIMILAR STORMS ...........................................................................53 B CODING FOR FINDING FORECAST ......................................................................54 viii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: WEIGHTS FOR MATTHEW POWER 2 .......................................................................58 Table 2: WEIGHTS FOR MATTHEW POWER 10 .....................................................................59 Table 3: WEIGHTS FOR MATTHEW POWER 50 .....................................................................59 Table 4: SSES FOR MATTHEW ..................................................................................................60 Table 5: WEIGHTS FOR EARL POWER 2 .................................................................................61 Table 6: WEIGHTS FOR EARL POWER 10 ...............................................................................61 Table 7: WEIGHTS FOR EARL POWER 50 ...............................................................................62 Table 8: SSES FOR EARL ............................................................................................................62 Table 9: WEIGHTS FOR DANNY POWER 2 .............................................................................63 Table 10: WEIGHTS FOR DANNY POWER 10 .........................................................................63 Table 11: WEIGHTS FOR DANNY POWER 50 .........................................................................64 Table 12: SSES FOR DANNY ......................................................................................................64 Table 13: WEIGHTS FOR BERTHA POWER 2..........................................................................65 Table 14: WEIGHTS FOR BERTHA POWER 10........................................................................66 Table 15: WEIGHTS FOR BERTHA POWER 50........................................................................66
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